Tizzy, you win again. You are a stock market God. You have said all along that stocks were going to get drilled and you are right again today. You have been validated again today with your genius. If I had invested in the stocks at the peak in 2000 then right now I would be losing money and that's funny. LoL, the stock market is the worst place to invest money. We are in a bear market and today is the proof that we are.
The market is getting killed as we speak. It dropped 200 points in the last 10 minutes. At this rate the DOW will be at 5k by the close. Bears rule.
you asked for me to post a play
i posted amzn
92.06 now :toast:
i never claim to have any short term insight, other than trying to predict next day up/down based on asian markets overnight action, moderate term i think markets are going to tank and we are heading for a recession....
and i am hedged but leaning hard on the short side
i just rant about the day to day stuff
what happens if a recession comes or not is inconsequential of what i do or say
don't kill the messanger
was just a bear shake
october high will end up being the high of the last bull when its all said and done
time for a new low as we choppily fall into the abyss IMO
we shall see won't we
bear markets play with your emotions and give bulls hope and crush bears ego all the way down
Just how much is the s&p up this year? Not much more than what could have been earned holding money in a cd.
Not considering the few great picks you've had, just how great was owning the s&p this year?
Please include the dollars performance and what people could have made holding the same money in a cd.
Also, measure the us markets vs. the rest of the world.
There is a risk premium to owning stocks, so add that as well.
The returns including those, which people that really understand the market include when measuring real returns, are negative.
Not considering the few great picks you've had, just how great was owning the s&p this year?
Please include the dollars performance and what people could have made holding the same money in a cd.
Also, measure the us markets vs. the rest of the world.
There is a risk premium to owning stocks, so add that as well.
The returns including those, which people that really understand the market include when measuring real returns, are negative.
If inflation is your "bag" then you can't have it both ways. When the market rises, you can't claim that it's just inflation raising the ship. When the market drops why isn't inflation keeping it afloat. Of course there is a risk to owning stocks because they don't go up every year. But the S&P has averaged 12% yoy (reinvesting dividends) since forever.
Tell me this,
If you could go back to 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and the start of 2007, what is the best investment to be in? Precious Metals, Oil, T Bonds, Commodoties, Bond funds, US Stocks, or Foreign stocks?
2000-2007 equities have been outperformed by US treasuries
over the last 9 years actually
last 5 years just created more bubbles when the last one wasn't allowed to fully deflate
near 0% interest rates for super long, loose credit standards, 9 trillion of debt, eventually comes back to bite you in the ass
Starting what year?
All these things you are quoting are probably excluding trainwreck periods of returns.
Stocks that were high fliers from earlier eras, dont exist at all today. Some via mergers or going bankrupt.
The us equity markets had several booms and busts during late 1800s.
People holding general equities were wiped out during 1929 crash for nominal value crashed.
People holding general equities from mid 1966-1982 were wiped out via double digit inflation coupled with flat nominal returns.
People made fortunes holding general equities from 1982-1999.
People holding tech were wiped out during 2000-02 nasdaq crash.
People holding general equities since 1999 have seen flat returns.
Meanwhile, the dollar has crashed, and inflation has above normal levels.
just think big picture about what's going on not in terms of economics really
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you have a lazy mass of people that took on way to much debt, consume way more than the rest of the world per capita basis, is fat, is complacent, likes to work as little as possible, hates their jobs, likes buy lots of cheap trinkets, big screen tvs, SUVs, whatever
while you got the rest of the world working their asses off working for peanuts in our corporations who ship those jobs overseas
also they are slowing buying up alot of the corporations on our soil too, percentage of banks currently being bought up in good deals for them
and you say well we still are smarter than them, not really true, our education system is in shambles and rest of the world catching up
and foreign people are catching up to us on the high end side of things lot of intelligent minds in india these these days working for much cheaper over there
plus japan already kicking our asses obviously car wise
does this sound like a recipe for long term good times for the US?
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you have a lazy mass of people that took on way to much debt, consume way more than the rest of the world per capita basis, is fat, is complacent, likes to work as little as possible, hates their jobs, likes buy lots of cheap trinkets, big screen tvs, SUVs, whatever
while you got the rest of the world working their asses off working for peanuts in our corporations who ship those jobs overseas
also they are slowing buying up alot of the corporations on our soil too, percentage of banks currently being bought up in good deals for them
and you say well we still are smarter than them, not really true, our education system is in shambles and rest of the world catching up
and foreign people are catching up to us on the high end side of things lot of intelligent minds in india these these days working for much cheaper over there
plus japan already kicking our asses obviously car wise
does this sound like a recipe for long term good times for the US?
Ok, ok by blood pressure is going up and I don't need this. Let me recap and settle down.
Here are the facts:
1. Tizzy and Woofy think that U.S. stocks are not a good place to be because we are headed for trouble (next 1 day -5 years).
2. I think U.S. stocks are a great place to be for the next 5 years and beyond.
3. I understand that stocks may be negative for 2007, 2008, and even 2009 but I don't think they will be.
4. I understand that there will be probably be better places to be pretty much every year except for U.S. stocks. (Gold in 07, foreign stocks in 06, Oil in 05, cd's in 2000 and 01 Corn in 08). So on and so on.
5. I can't change anyones mind and my mind can't be changed.
You two are setting a precedent by throwing a party every time the market gets hit and making your comments. Every time the market pops from now on I'm going to be in this thread "rubbing your noses in it" so to speak just like you two do. For the last 2 weeks you guys have been quiet as church mice but today it's back to boasting and gloating.
Here are the facts:
1. Tizzy and Woofy think that U.S. stocks are not a good place to be because we are headed for trouble (next 1 day -5 years).
2. I think U.S. stocks are a great place to be for the next 5 years and beyond.
3. I understand that stocks may be negative for 2007, 2008, and even 2009 but I don't think they will be.
4. I understand that there will be probably be better places to be pretty much every year except for U.S. stocks. (Gold in 07, foreign stocks in 06, Oil in 05, cd's in 2000 and 01 Corn in 08). So on and so on.
5. I can't change anyones mind and my mind can't be changed.
You two are setting a precedent by throwing a party every time the market gets hit and making your comments. Every time the market pops from now on I'm going to be in this thread "rubbing your noses in it" so to speak just like you two do. For the last 2 weeks you guys have been quiet as church mice but today it's back to boasting and gloating.
boast away hitman you'll make this thread more fun i'm looking forward to it
i don't like the one sided bear party
i like to bicker and discuss
bring on the bullish case give me some sound reasoning
other than last whatever years has 12% gains on average
hogwash
past DOES NOT predict the future
i don't like the one sided bear party
i like to bicker and discuss
bring on the bullish case give me some sound reasoning
other than last whatever years has 12% gains on average
hogwash
past DOES NOT predict the future
So a couple guys you dont even know, at an internet gambling forum, cheering the market down rises your blood pressure? If you are such a believer in holding the stocks you own long term, Im not sure why it bothers you.
What are you measuring the market against to determine whether or not it goes higher or lower? Im still not sure you understand that.
You dont have to worry about changing my mind. When I finally see some widespread capitulation from people holding stocks, coupled with some decent fundamentals, Ill be bullish.
Right now, I dont see either. In fact, what I do see are horrible fundamentals and complete ignorance from the majority that stocks always go higher.
More from the bear camp
Florida Sales Report -- October 2007
Single-Family, Existing Homes
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Statewide &
Metropolitan October October % October October %
Statistical Areas 2007 2006 Chge 2007 2006 Chge
(MSAs)
STATEWIDE*(1) 9,165 12,846 -29 $222,100 $242,700 -8
STATEWIDE-YEAR-TO-DATE 113,277 159,580 -29 $236,400 $248,100 -5
Daytona Beach 497 665 -25 $184,600 $215,800 -14
Fort Lauderdale 428 591 -28 $354,000 $349,400 1
Fort Myers-Cape Coral(2) 405 630 -36 $239,300 $249,800 -4
Fort Pierce-Port
St. Lucie 218 367 -41 $201,000 $242,400 -17
Fort Walton Beach 189 199 -5 $202,800 $241,100 -16
Gainesville 175 208 -16 $198,200 $225,600 -12
Jacksonville 834 1,131 -26 $187,200 $197,900 -5
Lakeland-Winter Haven 239 382 -37 $156,900 $161,300 -13
Melbourne-Titusville-
Palm Bay 361 515 -30 $189,400 $213,300 -11
Miami 367 544 -33 $354,800 $356,000 -
Naples-Marco Island*(3) 27 26 4 $450,000 $523,500 -14
Ocala 188 409 -54 $161,400 $169,100 -5
Orlando 1,227 1,917 -36 $238,500 $267,100 -11
Panama City 98 94 4 $204,500 $207,100 -1
Pensacola 319 364 -12 $161,900 $156,500 3
Punta Gorda 168 251 -33 $183,300 $206,300 -11
Sarasota-Bradenton 528 634 -17 $263,900 $278,100 -5
Tallahassee 276 271 2 $180,800 $190,700 -5
Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater(4) 1,700 2,419 -30 $209,000 $225,800 -7
West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton 450 618 -27 $348,300 $365,600 -5
Florida Sales Report -- October 2007
Single-Family, Existing Homes
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Statewide &
Metropolitan October October % October October %
Statistical Areas 2007 2006 Chge 2007 2006 Chge
(MSAs)
STATEWIDE*(1) 9,165 12,846 -29 $222,100 $242,700 -8
STATEWIDE-YEAR-TO-DATE 113,277 159,580 -29 $236,400 $248,100 -5
Daytona Beach 497 665 -25 $184,600 $215,800 -14
Fort Lauderdale 428 591 -28 $354,000 $349,400 1
Fort Myers-Cape Coral(2) 405 630 -36 $239,300 $249,800 -4
Fort Pierce-Port
St. Lucie 218 367 -41 $201,000 $242,400 -17
Fort Walton Beach 189 199 -5 $202,800 $241,100 -16
Gainesville 175 208 -16 $198,200 $225,600 -12
Jacksonville 834 1,131 -26 $187,200 $197,900 -5
Lakeland-Winter Haven 239 382 -37 $156,900 $161,300 -13
Melbourne-Titusville-
Palm Bay 361 515 -30 $189,400 $213,300 -11
Miami 367 544 -33 $354,800 $356,000 -
Naples-Marco Island*(3) 27 26 4 $450,000 $523,500 -14
Ocala 188 409 -54 $161,400 $169,100 -5
Orlando 1,227 1,917 -36 $238,500 $267,100 -11
Panama City 98 94 4 $204,500 $207,100 -1
Pensacola 319 364 -12 $161,900 $156,500 3
Punta Gorda 168 251 -33 $183,300 $206,300 -11
Sarasota-Bradenton 528 634 -17 $263,900 $278,100 -5
Tallahassee 276 271 2 $180,800 $190,700 -5
Tampa-St. Petersburg-
Clearwater(4) 1,700 2,419 -30 $209,000 $225,800 -7
West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton 450 618 -27 $348,300 $365,600 -5
