sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

as strange as it seems today's action makes me even more bearish

we had 5 years of low volatility grind upwards climbing the wall of worry

now the rallies are turning more viscous than the falls getting up peoples hope as we fall in very volatile way

plus the MSM was using the R word quite a bit on monday so good sign a big bear shake was coming

 

[tiznow]

time to fire some more ammo here me thinks good short opportunity

S&P 50 WMA 1473ish almost back to it

 

[tiznow]

close enough

:shoot3:

axa my target this go round

they own quite a bit of C, fnm, etc very tangled web they wove

 

[tiznow]

your daily update to put things in perspective

thread started with following prices

man oil really got smacked hard today

i'm switching to whilshire 5000 as a more accurate picture of overall US equity markets vs. the dow (don't worry bulls wilshire up more than dow in this time frame)

thread started with following prices

whilshire 5000 14710
oil 77.50
gold 675
usd 80.75


current prices

wilshire 5000 14816 +.7%
oil 91.44 +18 %
gold 804.7 +19.2%
usd 75.15 -6.9%

 

[Seymour]

The S&P is the best indicator.

 

[tiznow]

The S&P is the best indicator.

nah only 500 equities

http://quote.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^DWC

pretty sure wilshire includes S&P + 4500 others

 

[tiznow]

actually that link i gave doesn't give all the components

but...it actually has 6700 stocks

The Wilshire 5000 is considered the "total market index." Designed to track the value of the entire stock market, the index actually contains around 6,700 stocks today.

I guess S&P might be okay in that it has over 70% of the market cap in the US

The S&P 500 index is probably the most commonly referenced U.S. equity benchmark. This diverse index comprises over 70% of the total market cap of all stocks traded in the U.S.

anyway all i know is the headline dow numbers that MSM pushes as how the market is doing is wrong

 

[BASEHEAD]

Wilshire too broad, S&P for big/med caps Russell for smalls.Thats all you need as far indexes as tools go.These two together pretty much cover the entire board.Easier to tell which sectors are driving growth or causing resistence in a more defined index.

Why did you think todays action was suspect? It seems to me that folks are just starting to price in the upcoming rate cuts.Probably stealing a little thunder from the actual next cut.Volitility today was actually nominal.This despite all kinds of 'bad' news rolling out.Bad sentiment may be bottoming out.Now Im not saying that the good times are here again but clearly the outside private foreign investments in the troubled financials is going to help sentiment.Just the existence of days like today boost spirits.Perhaps tomorrow people take their cash and run or maybe they hang in there to see if they get another pop at the actual rate cutting event itself.Its also pretty clear that it will be multiple cuts,so thats even more of an incentive for folks to beleive theyre in cheap still.

Pretty impressive day to say the least.I wonder whered the markets wouldve ended up if todays economic news was benign or good?

 

[tiznow]

here's a nice chart for you basehead

:smoker2:

 

[BASEHEAD]

And heres one for you.

 

[tiznow]

yeah looks like long term buy and hold strategy with equities been utterly pointless since 2000 :think2:

 

[BASEHEAD]

yeah looks like long term buy and hold strategy with equities been utterly pointless since 2000 :think2:

If people are buying and holding why would they have just started in buying and holding in 2000? Your creating specific scenarios just to suit your specific argument.Yes, everyones 401k is thru, Im sure,sell sell sell.

What about folks who bought and held their home since 2000?

Even at a temporary decrease of 20% in value most folks will realize an 80% appreciation on their 7 YO investment.Not a bad ROI but theres a glut of homes out there-I guess I should just forget about my home as well as the markets.Im doomed.

 

[tiznow]

If people are buying and holding why would they have just started in buying and holding in 2000? Your creating specific scenarios just to suit your specific argument.Yes, everyones 401k is thru, Im sure,sell sell sell.

What about folks who bought and held their home since 2000?

Even at a temporary decrease of 20% in value most folks will realize an 80% appreciation on their 7 YO investment.Not a bad ROI but theres a glut of homes out there-I guess I should just forget about my home as well as the markets.Im doomed.

i'm just saying if you are a long term buy and hold investor invested since say 1970

those holdings have been worthless to be holding since 2000

as they are not outperforming even treasuries

speaking of which here's one of my few holdings i will likely be holding for my whole life pretty much

guy is sharp as a tack, isn't a permabear, but hedges in an environment like this as well as back in 2000-2002, low expense ratio 1.11% etc.

http://www.hussman.net/pdf/hsgperf.pdf

 

[tiznow]

by the way biggest two day rally since 2002 aka near end of last bear market

were alot of similiar rallies in the span of 2000-2002 as well

the bear shakes are typically viscous

previous 5 years of bull was constant grinding up a wall of worry (well alot of it had to do with inflation and commodity boom and not actual wealth creation but that's a different story)

 

[cussin'it]

the frantic pace of the rallies is bearish in itself, the more frantic it is, the more likely we are in a bear

:nopityA:

Bearshit Tizdoom and gloom. Buy, the holidays are a-comin'

:toast:

 

[BASEHEAD]

"When decisions do go poorly, innocent bystanders should not have to bear the cost."

More telling Fed commentary from today.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

tiz-

Where do you get your information when you project what the market will do that day? Are you just looking at futures or are there other factors?

I've been having success trading in and out of QQQQ and QID based on what I think the market is going to do that day. If you have any advice that would help make the projections more accurate I would appreciate it.

Right now, the only thing I own is QQQQ. When I think the market is going to drop, I sell it all off and buy QID, then I hold it until I think the market is going to go back up then I sell it all off and buy QQQQ again. And so on... I've been doing this for several weeks and right now I'm the only guy in my cubicle neighborhood whose 401k returns are still in double digits. What are the barriers that would prevent me from doing this continuously?

Is there a better index to track percentage-wise with bull and bear ETFs?

 

[cussin'it]

tiz-

Where do you get your information when you project what the market will do that day? Are you just looking at futures or are there other factors?

:lol:, what else but the magic 8-ball

hola

 

[joelatti]

2 days of US Big Green and ASIA of to a Rocking Start UP acorss the board almost 3%..........Maybe another Green day Thursday BIG Green???

Woof, Tiz etc...what do you think??

Where has Woof been??

 

[tiznow]

tiz-

Where do you get your information when you project what the market will do that day? Are you just looking at futures or are there other factors?

I've been having success trading in and out of QQQQ and QID based on what I think the market is going to do that day. If you have any advice that would help make the projections more accurate I would appreciate it.

Right now, the only thing I own is QQQQ. When I think the market is going to drop, I sell it all off and buy QID, then I hold it until I think the market is going to go back up then I sell it all off and buy QQQQ again. And so on... I've been doing this for several weeks and right now I'm the only guy in my cubicle neighborhood whose 401k returns are still in double digits. What are the barriers that would prevent me from doing this continuously?

Is there a better index to track percentage-wise with bull and bear ETFs?

best indication to of market movements right now is yen movement

http://www.forexdirectory.net/jpy.html

when this indicator is green markets (yen prices down) markets are going to go up when this is going down (yen prices up) markets are going to go down in general

just amazing how much the world markets follow the yen carry trade right now

but than again you could also make the argument that the yen is following the markets

of course today yen was down alot

as far as overnight predictions etc this is what i look at the most

as of right now its pretty much flat since US close