Sekrah's Gambling Rankings (1 thru 120)

[Sekrah]

I'm working on this weekends numbers.. I have about 80% punched in, should have it all out and done by tomorrow.. I made some minor teeny tweaks to the models, that shouldn't change anyone by more than 1 point though.

Yea, I give them great chance vs anyone in the Big 12 or SEC, especially Bama. I still have USC as the best team in the country.

 

[sarcean]

I'm working on this weekends numbers.. I have about 80% punched in, should have it all out and done by tomorrow.. I made some minor teeny tweaks to the models, that shouldn't change anyone by more than 1 point though.

Yea, I give them great chance vs anyone in the Big 12 or SEC, especially Bama. I still have USC as the best team in the country.

Despite the Oregon State loss and the 7 point victory over Arizona?

 

[sdf]

interesting to see where Texas ranks now that they've beaten 3 of the teams above them. I assume you'll still have Texas Tech ranked ahead of Texas and will be betting on the Red Raiders this weekend?

Rk Name Points
--- -------------------- --------
1 Southern Cal 83.30
2 Penn State 77.27
3 Oklahoma 71.97
4 Florida 69.99
5 Georgia 68.99
6 Texas Tech 67.81
7 Oklahoma State 67.67
8 Missouri 67.57
9 Texas 67.02

 

[Sekrah]

Despite the Oregon State loss and the 7 point victory over Arizona?

Oregon State did not "beat" USC in my rankings. USC were 16 point winners at Arizona in my rankings, which already had Arizona in the Top 25.

This isn't a ranking poll of who deserves to be in the national title game. This is for pointspread purposes and determine who the REAL best team is. This uses statistics and play by play breakdown of who the better team was minus the randomness that takes place in the game.

Thanks for the question.

 

[Sekrah]

interesting to see where Texas ranks now that they've beaten 3 of the teams above them. I assume you'll still have Texas Tech ranked ahead of Texas and will be betting on the Red Raiders this weekend?

Rk Name Points
--- -------------------- --------
1 Southern Cal 83.30
2 Penn State 77.27
3 Oklahoma 71.97
4 Florida 69.99
5 Georgia 68.99
6 Texas Tech 67.81
7 Oklahoma State 67.67
8 Missouri 67.57
9 Texas 67.02

Texas Tech actually leap frogs Georgia into 5th. Texas is up to 7th. Missouri 8th. Oklahoma St. 9th.

I have to run to work now, hopefully I can get the rest of the games in in the morning when I get home, there are about 7 or 8 games left I have to analyze, most are small conference games, Sun Belt and such.

The changes from week to week will be marginal as all of the other performances in a teams season still have relevance.

Like USC was upset by Stanford last year.. Just because they lost, they don't plummet in the rankings 20 spots. They are still USC, it just wasn't their day.

 

[DANDORO]

Sekrah, first of all I want to tell you that I respect your hard work here. Hatt off! But I'd like to know, if you applied these rankings in order to get your plays, for the past seasons too... And if your answer is positive, can you tell us please what was your hitting percentage on long term?

 

[sarcean]

Oregon State did not "beat" USC in my rankings. USC were 16 point winners at Arizona in my rankings, which already had Arizona in the Top 25.

This isn't a ranking poll of who deserves to be in the national title game. This is for pointspread purposes and determine who the REAL best team is. This uses statistics and play by play breakdown of who the better team was minus the randomness that takes place in the game.

Thanks for the question.

Just out of curiosity, is this not extremely subjective or do you use straight facts/statistics when saying they were 16 point winners (more then double of what they won by)? or that a "3-4 team is not really 3-4"?

I am not asking for your direct methodology I am just trying to see if you put your personal opinion in to it or let your system do it for you.

 

[Sekrah]

Sekrah, first of all I want to tell you that I respect your hard work here. Hatt off! But I'd like to know, if you applied these rankings in order to get your plays, for the past seasons too... And if your answer is positive, can you tell us please what was your hitting percentage on long term?

This is the first time I've applied my methodology and theories into a rankings. I've used this same method over the past several years handicapping games to a 60% success rate (last years is verifiable as I posted on here and another forum). The rankings make it easy for me to spot the value plays.

 

[Sekrah]

Just out of curiosity, is this not extremely subjective or do you use straight facts/statistics when saying they were 16 point winners (more then double of what they won by)? or that a "3-4 team is not really 3-4"?

I am not asking for your direct methodology I am just trying to see if you put your personal opinion in to it or let your system do it for you.

It's 95% statistics. I will make subjective tweaks to the "statistical score"., but it is almost completely based on a statistical formula I've used for a few years to handicap games.

 

[TheNoob]

Being a numbers guy...This is very cool stuff. Look forward to the rest of the season to see how it works out.