Sekrah's Gambling Rankings (1 thru 120)

[Sekrah]

Ohio State at that position? :nono5: Can you share your insight at length for the OSU/PSU game?
Thanks in advance

That's funny because the new rankings will have Ohio State even a few spots lower..
:toast:

I think the facts are that Ohio State were just disgustingly overrated in the preseason polls and are still trying living off their preseason marks. I do not believe they are that good. Their defense is getting very good marks by my system, I have them ranked 8th defensively, but their offense has been nothing short of dreadful! The only two teams their offense has handled were Youngstown St. and Minnesota (Remember, they got 14 points off two fumble returns for TD vs Michigan St., and they were setup on the MSU 17 for another touchdown). OSU were the better team that game, but I had it closer than the final score. OSU's offense struggled with Wisconsin, struggled with Ohio, struggled with Purdue, struggled with USC, struggled with Troy.

It will be no surprise then that Penn State will be a heavy play for me this week. I think they are superior to Ohio State. I have PSU ranked 3nd best defense in the country and 2nd best offense. PSU should be a heavier favorite here, but the false preseason perception of Ohio State is still out there.

I will be posting the updated rankings in about an hour.

 

[Sekrah]

OKAY FOLKS!

These are the updated standings. The original rankings in this thread had a few flaws in them that I have been working on removing. Some teams have moved in these updated rankings, some a whole lot, and others just a little bit. I have not included the result of tonights game in these rankings as I'm waiting on some more data from that one but a quick look at the stats tells me that the score I input will be somewhere around Ohio 12-0.

Rk Name Points
--- -------------------- --------
1 Southern Cal 83.30
2 Penn State 77.27
3 Oklahoma 71.97
4 Florida 69.99
5 Georgia 68.99
6 Texas Tech 67.81
7 Oklahoma State 67.67
8 Missouri 67.57
9 Texas 67.02
10 Illinois 66.61
11 Boise State 66.47
12 Georgia Tech 65.51
13 TCU 65.35
14 California 64.88
15 Oregon State 64.72
16 Mississippi 64.35
17 Iowa 63.96
18 LSU 62.98
19 South Carolina 62.61
20 Arizona 62.42
21 Cincinnati 62.22
22 West Virginia 62.10
23 Houston 62.09
24 Alabama 62.03
25 Ball State 60.63
26 Kansas 60.59
27 Oregon 60.41
28 Tennessee 60.06
29 Ohio State 59.77
30 Troy 59.30
31 Florida State 58.89
32 Utah 58.56
33 South Florida 58.52
34 Pittsburgh 58.50
35 Boston College 58.46
36 Nebraska 57.92
37 Clemson 57.67
38 BYU 57.23
39 Connecticut 56.99
40 Northern Illinois 56.93
41 Arkansas State 56.92
42 Purdue 56.85
43 Nevada 56.83
44 Wisconsin 56.47
45 Arizona State 56.04
46 Northwestern 55.75
47 East Carolina 55.58
48 Tulsa 55.38
49 Louisville 55.14
50 Indiana 55.04
51 Baylor 54.36
52 Western Michigan 54.24
53 Hawaii 54.17
54 Fresno State 53.68
55 Miami 53.63
56 Air Force 53.61
57 Maryland 53.55
58 New Mexico State 53.42
59 Kentucky 53.37
60 North Carolina 53.30
61 Stanford 53.15
62 Michigan State 52.84
62 Tulane 52.84
64 Louisiana-Lafayette 52.73
65 Auburn 52.67
66 Kansas State 52.31
67 Arkansas 52.21
68 Mississippi State 51.83
69 Virginia 51.50
70 Minnesota 51.40
71 Michigan 51.20
72 Southern Methodist 51.19
73 Kent State 50.64
74 New Mexico 50.26
75 Ohio 50.12
76 Akron 49.86
77 Notre Dame 49.75
78 Syracuse 49.65
79 San Jose State 49.03
80 Navy 48.97
81 Marshall 48.35
82 Southern Mississippi 48.34
83 Rice 48.17
84 Buffalo 48.10
85 Central Michigan 47.86
86 UCLA 47.26
87 Virginia Tech 46.83
88 Memphis 46.74
89 Temple 46.60
90 Bowling Green 46.23
91 UAB 46.19
92 Texas A&M 46.03
93 North Carolina State 45.93
94 Toledo 45.84
95 Florida Atlantic 44.94
96 Vanderbilt 44.78
97 Florida International 44.39
98 Western Kentucky 44.03
99 Wake Forest 44.01
100 Colorado State 43.76
101 Louisiana Tech 43.15
102 Iowa State 42.94
103 Wyoming 42.72
104 Miami (OH) 42.63
105 Rutgers 42.27
106 UNLV 42.24
107 Middle Tennessee 41.87
108 Eastern Michigan 41.46
109 Central Florida 40.96
110 UTEP 40.93
111 Washington 40.73
112 Duke 40.65
112 Louisiana-Monroe 40.65
114 Army 39.65
115 Colorado 39.62
116 Utah State 36.89
117 North Texas 32.36
118 Washington State 32.24
119 Idaho 31.70
120 San Diego State 31.43


Significant moves from the bugged rankings that were inadvertantly punishing or helping teams.

Adjusted up
Missouri has moved up 10 spots from 18th to 8th.
Boise St. has moved up 11 spots from 22nd to 11th.
TCU has moved up 35 spots from 48th to 13th.
LSU has moved up 11 spots from 29th to 18th.
Cincinnati has moved up 30 spots from 51st to 21st.
Houston has moved up 92 spots from 115th to 23rd.
Troy has moved up 26 spots from 56th to 30th.
Florida St. has moved up 21 spots from 52nd to 31st.
Utah has moved up 37 spots from 69th to 32nd.
South Florida has moved up 13 spots from 46th to 33rd.
Nebraska has moved up 25 spots from 61st to 35th.
Northern Illinois has moved up 30 spots from 70th to 40th.
Nevada has moved up 69 spots from 112th to 43rd.
Tulsa has moved up 14 spots from 62nd to 48th.
Indiana has moved up 14 spots from 64th to 50th.
Western Michigan has moved up 61 spots from 113th to 52nd.
Hawaii has moved up 47 spots from 100th to 53rd.
Maryland has moved up 14 spots from 71st to 57th.
New Mexico St. has moved up 58 spots from 116th to 58th.
Minnesota has moved up 29 spots from 99th to 70th.
Southern Methodist has moved up 34 spots from 106th to 72nd.
Marshall has moved up 28 spots from 109th to 81st.
Rice has moved up 24 spots from 107th to 83rd.
Temple has moved up 16 spots from 105th to 89th.


Adjusted down
Illinois has moved down 5 spots from 5th to 10th.
Iowa has moved down 5 spots from 12th to 17th.
South Carolina has moved down 9 spots from 10th to 19th.
Alabama has moved down 7 spots from 17th to 24th.
Ball State has moved down 10 spots from 15th to 25th.
Tennessee has moved down 9 spots from 19th to 28th.
Ohio State has moved down 5 spots from 24th to 29th.
BYU has moved down 15 spots from 23rd to 38th.
Arkansas St. has moved down 10 spots from 31st to 41st.
Purdue has moved down 15 spots from 27th to 42nd.
Wisconsin has moved down 9 spots from 35th to 44th.
Northwestern has moved down 12 spots from 34th to 46th.
East Carolina has moved down 15 spots from 32nd to 47th.
Fresno St. has moved down 26 spots from 28th to 54th.
North Carolina has moved down 18 spots from 42nd to 60th.
Stanford has moved down 22 spots from 39th to 61st.
Michigan St. has moved down 19 spots from 43rd to 62nd.
Tulane has moved down 25 spots from 38th to 63rd.
LA-Lafayette has moved down 19 spots from 45th to 64th.
New Mexico has moved down 41 spots from 33rd to 74th.
Ohio has moved down 35 spots from 40th to 75th.
Notre Dame has moved down 28 spots from 49th to 77th.
Syracuse has moved down 28 spots from 50th to 78th.
UCLA has moved down 39 spots from 47th to 86th.
N.C. State has moved down 17 spots from 76th to 93rd.
Wyoming has moved down 44 spots from 59th to 103rd.



Theres other big movers in there I missed I'm sure.

I will be posting updated wagers for this weekend as well with these new rankings soon.

 

[billbeater]

The thing with these big games is the the better team obviously doesn't always win, assuming psu is a better team by record or other calibration.
I really believe that when you give a very good national power team and a great coach a second chance to get back into the BCS hunt AT HOME, where the other team has trouble, and 100,000 fans create noise and momentum, they cash that 90% of the time!
And that is what we have here, "The Second Chance Game." America is built on second chances, and strong people rise to those occasions.
Pure talent, stats, or rankings will not equate to a winner here, the circumstances i think are too overwhelming and OSU +3 is a W.

The arguments i have heard for PSU so far are just not strong enough for all the money that is being plunked down on them. Just my take. Everybody Enjoy!

 

[Sekrah]

This is what I've done.. I'm running a trial on last weeks games with the new rankings. I erased the this past weeks stats from the database (have them saved in another file) and am going to be comparing last week's rankings with the matchups to see how we would of did with this system.

Again, we would bet games with atleast an 8 point difference between My Line and Vegas line. 3 point edge for home field.

Syntax: Team Name (Last Week's Rating) vs Team Name (Last Week's Rating), [My Line, Difference]


WINNER, Hawaii +23 (55.87) at Boise St. (67.13), [Boise St -14.5, Diff 8.5]

WINNER, Connecticut +3 (53.59) at Rutgers (41.83), [UConn -9, Diff 12]

WINNER, Mississippi +12.5 (67.91) at Alabama (63.48), [Ole Miss -1.5, Diff 14].

WINNER, Oregon State -16 (64.47) at Washington (37.09), [Oregon St. -24.5, Diff 8.5].

WINNER, Kansas State +3 (50.04) at Colorado (39.44), [Kansas St. -7.5, Diff 10.5]

LOSER, Idaho +20 (31.53) at Louisiana Tech (37.16), [Louisiana Tech -8.5, Diff 11.5]

LOSER, Indiana +17 (62.75) at Illinois (65.51), [Illinois -6, Diff 11]

WINNER, Virginia Tech (44.97) at Boston College -3 (59.50), [BC -17, Diff 14]


We would of went 6-2 under the 8-point rule last week. I will post this weeks plays with the new rankings.

 

[Sekrah]

BETS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Syntax:Team (Rating) at Team (Rating), [My Line, Difference vs Vegas]


Auburn (52.67) at West Virginia -3 (62.10), [West Virginia -12.5, Diff 9.5]

Northwestern (55.75) at Indiana +8 (55.04), [Indiana -2.5, Diff 10.5]

Wake Forest (44.01) at Miami -3 (53.63), [Miami -12.5, Diff 9.5]

Oklahoma St. +12 (67.67) at Texas (67.02), [Texas -2.5, Diff 9.5]

Southern Methodist +12 (51.19) at Navy (48.97), [Navy -1, Diff 11]

Virginia Tech (46.83) at Florida St. -5 (58.89), [Florida St. -15, Diff 10]

Rutgers (42.27) at Pittsburgh -9 (58.50), [Pittsburgh -19, Diff 10]

Colorado (39.62) at Missouri -21.5 (67.57), [Missouri -31, Diff 9.5]

Alabama (62.03) at Tennessee +7 (60.06), [Tennessee -1, Diff 8]

Penn State -2.5 (72.27) at Ohio State (59.77), [Penn State -14.5, Diff 11.5]

 

[trentmoney]

i used a new formula for last week that seems to be similar to yours... i see we had a few of the same plays, but i left out some like or st since they were a DD road fav and tried to concentrate on short favs (-7 or less and at home) and dogs... i went 6-1 and we both had BC and miss, as i said i left out or st and i left out IU bc of QB situation

this week IU, WV, FSU and Ohio St are the same with me but i'm not playing IU bc of qb situation, WV bc of conference strength (and i'm just not in the mood for thurs action) and Ohio St as i feel their offensive numbers are a bit skewed bc of injury to beanie and qb change and the adjustment period pryor had to go through in his first couple of games... also a big-time game like that usually does include the randomness that we are trying to avoid so i wouldn't be surprised if we saw kick returns for scores and trick plays as well as key turnovers

good luck

 

[A10Expert]

I'll be tailing this weekend, thanks for all the hard work!

 

[3peet]

Sek, what happened to Wyoming??? I was thinking about that one all week before I saw your thread. What made you pull that off your card?

Personally I thought they were in a really good spot this week.

 

[Sekrah]

They were actually getting too much credit from the one major flaw.

I do think they are an okay play still, but they didn't meet the 8 point criteria.

TCU 65.35 - Wyoming 42.72 = Tcu -22.63 + home field = TCU -25.5 .. I see -31 at most of the books so Wyoming would be a value play IMO.

Added bonus would be TCU coming off a huge upset win would also play in Wyoming's favor.


I'm going to try to do some more analysis and work on the offensive and defensive rankings and see if I can spot any over/under plays for this weekend.

 

[yanni_gogolak]

sekrah:

Colorado (39.62) at Missouri -21.5 (67.57), [Missouri -31, Diff 9.5]

this line has moved good bit. but i would assume you would still take it to -23, for a diff of 8, right?

 

[Sekrah]

Yes, it's still a play at 23..

 

[Sekrah]

Boise St. 66.04
San Jose St. 50.43

Sekrah Line: Boise St. -12.5

Offensive Rankings: Boise St. 17th, San Jose St. 106th
Defensive Rankings: Boise St. 18th, San Jose St. 34th

 

[arnettt]

So by this standard tonights play should be boise?

 

[Sekrah]

Yes, if i were forced to bet a side, it's Boise St., but small play at 5 pt difference. Save the larger bets for the bigger differences.

I can never bet teams ranked as offensively bad as San Jose St.. They are extremely aggravating to watch.. See Temple (114th offense) this past Tuesday.

 

[arnettt]

Thanks for info, think I will wait for some saturday plays.

 

[thatoneguy]

neutral field, oregon st would beat central michigan by 17? houston would beat tulsa by 7?

while i applaud the effort you most likely put into this, i get the feeling there's still major tweaking to be done. i'm guessing ore st being in the top 20 is from the usc upset. but that's one of those rivalry games where it doesn't seem to matter as much about actual team talent as it should and oregon st always gives them a headache. certain teams in certain spots just play differently, look at maryland vs ranked teams compared to maryland against average teams, they're completely backwards.

home field advantage being an even 3 points for every team is flawed, some teams are actually better on the road and i'd be willing to bet home field to boise st means a lot more than it does to ball st.

does this equation take injuries or missing players into account in anyway?

and the randomness that you speak of doesn't really sound random to me. referencing the wyoming/utah game, a blocked punt for a td isn't random, virginia tech's beamerball brand of special teams is what keeps them in the thick of things most years. an int for a td isn't random either, the td part of it could be argued as potentially random, but having a good enough defense to be able to cause interceptions, is not a factor of anything "random." by that thinking, would qb's interception stats not count towards anything? random is some guy not making a td saving tackle because his shoe was untied. and even that's not completely random as it speaks to that guy's lack of preparation(somewhat). random is randy johnson demolishing that bird mid-pitch a couple years ago. random is a football with a defect that causes the flight path of an otherwise perfect kick to slice at the last moment. i dont know how anyone can account for that.

despite how this may read, i'm not trying to call your method bullshit or anything like that, i just see certain things that i view as glaring miscalculations and i want to understand more. any criticisms i make are purely in the interest of winning and helping to develop more ways of doing so. either way, good luck with this method, it appears to have solid potential with a difficult, yet sound premise.

 

[Sekrah]

neutral field, oregon st would beat central michigan by 17? houston would beat tulsa by 7?

i'm guessing ore st being in the top 20 is from the usc upset.
.

You make alot of good points, some that have validitiy, but I'm going to address this one.

According my statistical analysis, Oregon State didn't beat USC. So there wasn't an upset win there. I actually have USC as a 14 point winner there. I also have Oregon State a 14-point winner in the Stanford game that they lost and have them a 16-point winner in the Utah game that they lost. I believe they were the beneficiary of good luck in the USC game, and equally on the wrong end of the breaks in the Stanford, Utah games. Based on my statistics, at 5-2, with 2 losses to the top two teams (USC, Penn State), they score pretty well.

As for Central Michigan, I thought they were lucky to come out of the Ohio game with a win. Eastern Illinois game was tigher than the scoreline, and they have eeked out wins over Buffalo, Temple, and Western Michigan. They are simply not that good. If they were on the wrong end of the luck spectrum, I think they could be potentially be 1-6 right now.

Regarding Houston, I think they could be 6-1 right now with average luck. My stats analysis thought they were clearly the better team vs Colorado St. and Air Force.

I have Tulsa rated with the weakest schedule in the entire country at 120th, along with their defense 119th.


You do make valid points about Special Teams, Beamer Ball, Injuries. They would indeed make a hard job even more difficult. Actual hands-on handicapping in conjunction with these ratings is a wise thing to do.

 

[thatoneguy]

i agree that houston is a better team than both colorado st and air force(i despise air force), regardless, under your 8 point spread rule, if houston played at tulsa and houston was +4, you'd take them? i didn't look into the matchup or anything, so who knows, maybe houston kills tulsa in tulsa and has done so for 20 years now, but aside from any possible ridiculous trends such as that, there's very few instances where i'd take houston. and from reading your posts, it appears the only minimum for making a game an official play is that 8 point differential(although kudos for advocating hands-on handicapping, something i don't think many people actually do)

also... am i to understand that you neglect what actually happened in the real games and these rankings are based on what you believe should have happened based on statistics? if so, where do these statistics come from? the real game? you completely lost me with the last post explaining oregon st's "record." after reading the post, it honestly sounded like you were delving into all sorts of reverse causation and relativity related issues to rank college football teams. if that's the case, by all means, forge on. if you can figure that out, i'd be willing to bet you could predict every single exact stat of the game and i'll be your number one fan. but since the likelihood of that being the situation is next to nil, you really lost me.


and feel free to tell me to bugger off or ignore me or whatever, i'm just another guy on the internet and you don't have to explain yourself one bit. like i said earlier, im just trying to whittle down another tool to use to get that paper.

 

[Sekrah]

I'm not trying to predict the stats of the next game. The purpose is to spot team who have been unlucky/lucky in previous games and are being unjustly punished, or given too much credit in the pointspread for their upcoming matchup. I am translating this data into an easy to read rankings that may be able to help in handicapping by spotting value plays.

Teams have played 6 or 7 games. One would be foolish to think that is enough of a sample to get the precise accuracy of the ability of every team in the country. These rankings are simply a guide that points to teams that have been unlucky/lucky.

I'm not going to tell you to bugger off,. This is an internet forum on sports gambling. If I put my idea out there I am opening myself and my system to criticism. I am not afraid of that. But I also think anyone who denies the massive amounts of randomness that takes place in sporting events, might as well be throwing darts to pick their team.

I don't see any other rankings that try to cut through the randomness. If there are, please point me in that direction.

 

[tnvolfan]

BETS FOR THIS WEEKEND

Syntax:Team (Rating) at Team (Rating), [My Line, Difference vs Vegas]


Auburn (52.67) at West Virginia -3 (62.10), [West Virginia -12.5, Diff 9.5]

Northwestern (55.75) at Indiana +8 (55.04), [Indiana -2.5, Diff 10.5]

Wake Forest (44.01) at Miami -3 (53.63), [Miami -12.5, Diff 9.5]

Oklahoma St. +12 (67.67) at Texas (67.02), [Texas -2.5, Diff 9.5]

Southern Methodist +12 (51.19) at Navy (48.97), [Navy -1, Diff 11]

Virginia Tech (46.83) at Florida St. -5 (58.89), [Florida St. -15, Diff 10]

Rutgers (42.27) at Pittsburgh -9 (58.50), [Pittsburgh -19, Diff 10]

Colorado (39.62) at Missouri -21.5 (67.57), [Missouri -31, Diff 9.5]

Alabama (62.03) at Tennessee +7 (60.06), [Tennessee -1, Diff 8]

Penn State -2.5 (72.27) at Ohio State (59.77), [Penn State -14.5, Diff 11.5]

Hey Sekrah Really like what your doing here, I have 1 question on the
PN State and Ohio State game. I came up with a different # using your numbers, let me know if i did something wrong.

I added 3 with Ohio St cause they are the home team, so that would be (62.77) for Ohio St & (72.27) = 9.5 PN State - the line of 2.5 or a difference of only 7 instead of 11.5. I probably did something wrong &
1 thing I just thought of is I didnt check to see if it was on a neutral field.

Thanks for your effort.