Sekrah's Gambling Rankings (1 thru 120)

[sdf]

TUES 8:00 - Ohio +4 at Temple (Ohio -13, +17)


SAT 12:00 - Texas Tech +2.5 at Kansas (Texas Tech -6.5, +9)

SAT 12:00 - Central Michigan at Toledo +3.5 (Toledo -5.5, +9)
SAT 12:30 - Baylor +10.5 at Nebraska (Baylor pk, +10.5)
SAT 6:00 - Wyoming +32 at TCU (TCU -4.5, +27.5)
SAT 11:55 - Nevada at Hawaii +3.5 (Hawaii -8, +11.5)

If Temple's starting QB returns would that not change the previous form of Temple?

TTech has been a notoriously bad road team in big games. KU is a strong home team under Mangino. Tough one

Toledo has 1 offensive TD in their past 4 games. CMU has scored a minimum of 25 points in all but one game (@UGa). Cant back the poor offensive team that is struggling. Their win over UM was a fluke.

NU's current form is steadily improving (near win at TTech, blowout win at ISU) while Baylor continues to struggle against anyone good and struggles on the road

Wyoming hasnt covered a game in their past 14 tries. Is *THIS* finally the game they do it? in 4 conference games, Wyoming has scored TEN points total (2.5ppg avg). TCU in conference avgs giving up 6ppg. Wyoming offense is in for a tough game.

Who is the starting QB for Hawaii? Does it matter?

 

[Illegal4Mation]

<img src=http://c4.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/28/l_a3e73c77bf82428b94f6d73667a5561b.gif>

 

[Jetplane]

hundreds? for us... it's thousands man... don't short yourself.

 

[jacksonjohn]

Do you use this for the NFL also? If so, how do the NFL & CFB compare?

 

[SKing24]

Sekrah,

Do you adjust these #'s after each week or do you keep them for a couple weeks and then adjust? I was going to look at how the system has performed in past weeks with these #'s and wanted to know if I would be wasting my time or not. Thanks in advance...

 

[dayang23]

This is really interesting, and thanks for all the hard work you put into this list. I will surely be watching closesly to see how it unfolds, of course I don't agree with some of those teams you got placed throughout your rankings, but we shall see...

 

[Sekrah]

Sekrah,

Do you adjust these #'s after each week or do you keep them for a couple weeks and then adjust? I was going to look at how the system has performed in past weeks with these #'s and wanted to know if I would be wasting my time or not. Thanks in advance...

They adjust week by week.. Each weeks scores will make adjustments to it.

Keep in mind, the rankings here are somewhat experimental. They are the basis of what I've used in my handicapping process for the past few years, but this is the first time I've tried to translate my methods to a ranking of 120 teams like this.. It's difficult and time consuming and there is still plenty of tweaking of my own going on here.

 

[BigPIG19]

my only problem with this is the randomness factor. Correct me if I am wrong, but "randomness" is turnovers? If that is the case, then "randomness" is not going to stop (although I wish it would, cause i would be much richer), thus rendering this formula useless. I am not bashing at all, I am just trying to understand your logic. Thanks for the hard work.

 

[Sekrah]

my only problem with this is the randomness factor. Correct me if I am wrong, but "randomness" is turnovers? If that is the case, then "randomness" is not going to stop (although I wish it would, cause i would be much richer), thus rendering this formula useless. I am not bashing at all, I am just trying to understand your logic. Thanks for the hard work.

I'm trying to cut out the stuff that is not nearly impossible to predict.

There will always be randomness. Everytime a team goes up to the line of scrimmage there is a x% chance of a dozen possible results. I'm trying to find the true probability of each result by removing the random factors.

40% (or more) of my plays will be losers in the long run of course. That's the nature of the game!

Every weekend somebody will have a winner and tell themselves, "I was right on that one!" or they will have a loser and tell themselves, "Ugh, I'm an idiot for picking that team.".. This isn't always the truth. Randomness is extremely unappreciated in sports.

 

[krk1030]

Are these the first plays you have posted?

 

[A10Expert]

when do you post your plays?

 

[krk1030]

when do you post your plays?

He already did.

 

[A10Expert]

He already did.

sorry, what day usually?

 

[dave11486]

I'm trying to cut out the stuff that is not nearly impossible to predict.

There will always be randomness. Everytime a team goes up to the line of scrimmage there is a x% chance of a dozen possible results. I'm trying to find the true probability of each result by removing the random factors.

40% (or more) of my plays will be losers in the long run of course. That's the nature of the game!

Every weekend somebody will have a winner and tell themselves, "I was right on that one!" or they will have a loser and tell themselves, "Ugh, I'm an idiot for picking that team.".. This isn't always the truth. Randomness is extremely unappreciated in sports.

This is one post that I would have laughed at 2 years ago, but now I completely understand. You can really do a number on your confidence and betting fundamentals by attaching the results of one play or one week to your overall betting skill.

 

[SKing24]

They adjust week by week.. Each weeks scores will make adjustments to it.

Keep in mind, the rankings here are somewhat experimental. They are the basis of what I've used in my handicapping process for the past few years, but this is the first time I've tried to translate my methods to a ranking of 120 teams like this.. It's difficult and time consuming and there is still plenty of tweaking of my own going on here.

Good luck with everything and I hope to see you keep posting all 120 rankings. I am working out a a system of my own and yours adapts fairly easily to mine so I am going to make an alternate template with your #'s included.

 

[Sekrah]

and Temple sucks out on the river.

I'll have to wait for the box score to check against, but my guess is Ohio were several points better in this one.

 

[krh7]

and Temple sucks out on the river.

I'll have to wait for the box score to check against, but my guess is Ohio were several points better in this one.

randomness got you with that crazy fumbled punt at the end.

 

[Sekrah]

Guys.. I made some pretty significant changes to the rankings tonight.. As this is my first run at these rankings, I am still working out the bugs and any errors I may have. I believe I was overrated strength of schedule slightly which boosted teams higher than they probably deserved.

Another bug was that I had a seperate category for stats against BCS opponents vs a stats category vs all opponents. The problem with that is that if a team didn't play a BCS opponent, they got credited with a "0" within the software which put them in the middle of the pack between teams in positive and negative. This happened most notably with Wyoming, Air Force, and Tulsa. Air Force was unaffected, it helped Wyoming, and it hurt Tulsa. There were also other teams that were hurt or helped less severe by this.

I am cleaning up some of the bugs. I may release another rankings list later tonight/this morning that are a bit different from the previous rankings.. This may result in a change of plays for this weekend for some of the games!!!

Stay tuned..

 

[billbeater]

Ohio State at that position? :nono5: Can you share your insight at length for the OSU/PSU game?
Thanks in advance

 

[GoForIt]

Ohio State at that position? :nono5:

Tressel and Stoops used to be great in big games when they first came on the scene. Now, I don't know what happen to them.