At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
Super Saturday is here, and the weather looks perfect at both Belmont Park and Santa Anita, with nine Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races on tap.
The horse in the spotlight is the undefeated Shared Belief, who is the 3-5 morning line favorite to win the $300,000 Awesome Again (G1), a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
The colt already is the early betting favorite for the Classic, currently at odds of 8-5 at Sportsbook.ag. The colt does not need to win the Awesome Again, as his win in the Pacific Classic (G1) stamped his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup.
If the colt were to win the Awesome Again and then win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he will move to the front of the line for the Eclipse Award for both top three-year-old and Horse of the Year. That would have been hard to imagine back in June when California Chrome was heading to Belmont Park with a shot of the Triple Crown.
California Chrome came up short in the Belmont, and his sixth place finish in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) certainly opened the door for Shared Belief. However, it still likely is going to come down to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup is also a “Win and You’re In” race for the Classic, and it is going to be one of the best betting races on the 11-race card at Belmont Park.
The top three finishers from the Travers (G1) return to do battle and they will take on the speedy Moreno, who is looking to bounce back off a second in the Woodward (G1).
Wicked Strong, who was beaten a nose in the Travers, is the 3-1 morning line favorite. One runner that may end up getting overlooked is the Chad Brown trained Zivo, who was fourth in the Woodward, which snapped a six race winning streak.
He made a mild late rally to finish three lengths behind the winner over a racing strip that was kind to speed. He won the Suburban (G2) two back and has the look of a runner that may appreciate 1 ¼ miles.
The Awesome Again and Jockey Club Gold Cup will both be broadcast live on the NBC Sports Network from 5:30 to 8:00 eastern.
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
No. BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:50 ET)
7 Midhmaar 8-1
2 Tradesman / 2b Zennor 4-1
1 Savoy Stomp / 1a Boone Docks 3-1
10 Moon Over Cuzco 12-1
Analysis: Midhmaar is one of two first timers in here sent out by the Chad Brown barn that is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. This colt was a $600,000 Keeneland purchase by Tapit (14% winners with debut runners) out of the stakes winner Take D' Tour ($1 million). The colt has a couple of solid works on the morning tab including a quick gate drill.
Zennor tracked the early pace, came with a five wide bid and ran out of gas, weakening to finish fifth in his debut as the beaten chalk. The barn has better numbers second time out than with firsters, hitting at a 25% clip. Willing to give this guy another look here as he is bred to be a runner. He is by Medaglia d'Oro out of the stakes winner Zelanda ($51,414) who has dropped five winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Time Prisoner ($360,011).
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,7,10
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,7,10 / 1,2,3,7,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 The Vosburgh Inv. G1 (4:41 ET)
6 Happy My Way 3-1
1 Palace 2-1
7 Private Zone 7-2
4 Salutos Amigos 6-1
Analysis: Happy My Way came off a 2 1/2 month break, setting the early fractions in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) but was run down late by a very sharp Palace as the beaten favorite. The loss snapped a three race winning streak, including a dominant performance in the Maryland Sprint Handicap (G3) two back at Pimlico. He owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers but could have plenty of company up front as this race is top heavy with early speed types. This is just his third start since March and he looks as if he still may have some upside. His win over the main track here came back in 2012 when breaking his maiden for a $65,000 tag in his second career start.
Palace has won three of his last four starts with the loss coming over the main track here in the Belmont Sprint (G3) where he ran second to Clearly Now. He won the True North (G2) here and has landed in the exacta in five of six trips over the main track., The Rice barn was thinking about training this guy up to the Breeders' Cup Sprint where he is currently the early favorite. The five-year-old owns a solid pace profile throughout and seldom runs a bad one, landing in the exacta in 17 of his 21 career starts. The rail draw should not a pose a problem as he has won from the inside post three times including two back in the Vanderbilt. No real knocks except for the price which likely is going to be less than the 2-1 morning line.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 1,6 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:
SA Race 6 The Frontrunner G1 (3:00 PT)
9 Skyway 5-1
7 American Pharoah 8-5
2 Lord Nelson 8-1
8 Conquest Panthera 8-1
Analysis: Skyway was the beaten favorite in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) going seven furlongs on poly as American Pharoah was able to shake loose early and go gate to wire. Our top pick stalked the early pace and finished gamely to win the Best Pal (G2) two back. The colt is bred to handle two turns, by Sky Mesa out of the stakes winner Bedside Manner ($262,223). The Casse barn is 18% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
American Pharoah earned the top last out speed fig in his gate to wire win in the Del Mar Futurity as a maiden after checking in fifth in his debut. The Baffert trainee owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and has enough pedigree to handle his first trip around two turns. He is one of six in here stretching out off a sprint but there really is not much early pace in here and this guy could be a danger to go gate to wire. Main knock is going to be the short price.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 7,9 / 2,7,8,9
TRI: 7,9 / 2,7,8,9 / 2,7,8,9,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R11: #7 Midhmaar 8-1
R1: #10 Moon Over Cuzco 12-1
R3: #9 Dispersion 8-1
R4: #3 Vyjack 12-1
R4: #2 Golden Ticket 8-1
R6: #2 Escapist 8-1
R7: #7 Alterite 8-1
R11: #3 Innovation Economy 10-1
Good luck today!
