Saturday 9/27/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Soccer

EPL Best Bets - Week 6
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

This looks like being one of the hardest weeks to predict so far in the English Premier League. Chelsea and Manchester City have what look like reasonably easy fixtures, while there are four or five very even matches elsewhere. Fair play to all those who make a profit this weekend!

Manchester City and Chelsea played out a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium. While the result is one Chelsea would have taken before the game, it was a missed opportunity for the Blues who went 1-0 up against a team with ten men. Otherwise it was a dreadful week for the big clubs, with Spurs, Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton all losing.

Let's handicap Week 6 of the Premier League.

The Banker: Liverpool to beat Everton at 10/11 (check whether Sturridge plays)

The early and late games on Saturday see two derbies, on Merseyside (Liverpool vs. Everton), and in North London (Arsenal vs. Tottenham). Liverpool and Arsenal are 11/10 and 3/4 favourites respectively. Of the pair Liverpool look the better bet. Everton's record at Anfield is extremely poor, and Liverpool are a totally different prospect with Daniel Sturridge in the side. Sturridge is rated 50/50 for the game.

Liverpool have struggled a bit so far this season, but there has been a real shining light in the continued development of Raheem Sterling. His understanding with Sturridge makes Liverpool a formidable attacking threat.

I haven't liked what I've seen of Everton so far this season. They conceded six to Chelsea, three to Crystal Palace and two to Leicester and they may just be struggling with a rare sense of expectation around Goodison Park. Add to that their meek surrender at Anfield last year in a 4-0 win and they look worth taking on. But check whether Sturridge starts.

The Solid Bet: Leicester City to beat Crystal Palace at 15/8

Leicester were quite magnificent in a 5-3 win over Manchester United last Sunday. They were hugely underrated in the betting before the season. Average teams do not win the Championship with 105 points, and the Foxes look set for a fine season, their first in the top flight since 2003-04.

Crystal Palace had their problems at the start of the season, but got a fantastic win up at Everton last Sunday. They are a team with great spirit and those writing them off after the departure of Tony Pulis have done so prematurely.

However their home form this year has been nowhere near as good as last year. They were dire in a 3-1 loss to West Ham and fairly impotent against Burnley, drawing 0-0. Leicester are just so confident at the moment and so dangerous going forward that they may be too much for Palace.

The Outsider: Burnley to beat West Bromwich Albion at 16/5

West Brom can't be touched at evens here. This is a side that only won seven times last season and has scored just three this season. Their win against Spurs came from a very solid defensive display and then scoring from a set-piece, so I'm not convinced that the result will be a turning point for the Baggies.

Without his two best strikers Danny Ings and Sam Vokes, Burnley boss Sean Dyche has been concentrating on making his side hard to beat. They have drawn three of their five games 0-0 and haven't scored since taking the lead against Chelsea. The Clarets went on to lose that game 3-1, but that was the only time they have been genuinely outclassed. Back-up forwards Lukas Jutkiewicz and Marvin Sordell are Championship standard and the return, particularly of Ings, cannot come soon enough for the East Lancashire club. Under 2.5 goals looks a banker at 4/6.

None of Burnley's games this season have featured a second half goal, and if they get their noses in front they can be relied on to do a good job defending it. Jason Shackell leads the defence magnificently, while Kieran Trippier is one of the best young full-backs in England. At 16/5 they look worth a punt, with 10/1 on a 1-0 win very appetising.

The First Goalscorer: Graziano Pelle for Southampton vs. QPR at 4/1

Southampton, despite their excellent start, are no bet here at 4/9 against struggling QPR. However it might be an idea to dip into the first goalscorer market for Graziano Pelle. Bought from Feyenoord along with new manager Ronald Koeman, there was a sense of foreboding on the South Coast that he might be another Eredivisie striker who would flop in the Premier League (Jozy Altidore, Afonso Alves and Mateja Kezman are good examples of this).

But Pelle has started the season really well and was extremely sharp in the Saints' 4-0 win over Newcastle, during which he scored twice. Coming off the back of 50 league goals in the last two seasons the Italian's confidence is sky-high, and he can do some real damage to a QPR defence that cannot deal with pace whatsoever.

 

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English Premier League betting breakdown: Derby delight for punters
By SOCCER AUTHORITY

The Premier League serves up a real treat this weekend with a number of intriguing encounters including two mouth-watering local derbies. Soccer Authority breaks down the best ways to wager on this weekend’s action in the EPL:

Derby delight

We are kicking things off with the Merseyside Derby as Liverpool hope to repeat last yea's blitz of Everton. This season however, Liverpool are leaking goals and Everton certainly have the fire power in their ranks to hit the back of the net at Anfield.

The North London derby provides us with Arsenal taking on Tottenham Hotspur at the Emirates. Spurs have not won in this fixture since 2010 and their scorers were Bale and van der Vaart that day. Arsenal’s five minute destruction at Villa last week proves that the Gunners still have what it takes to turn on the style. We should also bear in mind that Arsene Wenger always seems to get the best out of Arsenal in these type of games. Expect a home win here.

You still got it

It’s a real pleasure to see the legend of Cambiasso grace us with his presence in the Premier League. His nickname is ‘Cuchu’ meaning old man, but after last’s week’s performance against Manchester United, it is obvious that he still has it. It’s also so refreshing to hear him say that he is giving his all to help Leicester stay in the Premier League. Keep an eye out for him this week as Leicester City travel to Crystal Palace and you will see that at 34, the Argentine still oozes class.

Goals to come?

There are a couple of players to watch out for this week who are likely to hit the back of the net. The obvious choice would always be Diego Costa as Chelsea hope to reaffirm themselves at the top of the table after this Saturday’s home tie with Villa.

Leicester City’s new hitman Leonardo Ulloa is loving life in the Premier League and you can be sure that if the chance comes, he will score against Palace.

Finally, here’s an outside prediction: Tottenham’s Roberto Soldado might just get one at the Emirates. After being criticized by Spurs fans this week, the Spaniard scored in the Capital One Cup. He is desperate to score more goals and cut away the tag of being a flop. The North London Derby is the perfect opportunity to prove a point and get some fans back on side!

 

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CFL Betting Recap - Week 13
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 straight up in Week 13
Underdogs went 4-0 ATS in Week 13
Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 13
Road teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 13
The 'over/under' went 2-2 in Week 13

Team Betting Notes

The East Division has been much maligned this season, and rightly so if you review the standings. However, Week 13 saw the East go 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the West.

In perhaps the biggest stunner of the season thus far, Calgary (10-2) lost for just the second time in 12 games, snapping a six-game win streak in Montreal (4-8). It wasn't a fluke, either, as the Alouettes licked the Stamps 31-15.

Montreal's win against Calgary snapped a five-game losing streak against the West Division.

Ottawa (1-10) nearly joined Montreal in the upset club, taking Saskatchewan (9-3) to overtime before falling 35-32 to the Roughriders.

Hamilton (4-7) has off three consecutive home wins at Tim Hortons Field, and they are 4-2 SU/3-3 ATS in six home games this season.

Edmonton (8-4) has dropped three of their past four games after starting the season 7-1.

Toronto (4-8) snapped a four-game losing streak, avenging a loss to the BC Lions (7-5). The Argos have now covered three in a row.

 

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 14
By David Schwab

Week 13 was the perfect time to go against the favorites with a 4-0 record against the spread that also included some shocking straight-up upsets.

Toronto started the run of upsets on Friday with a stunning 40-23 victory over British Columbia as a six-point road underdog. The total went well OVER the 49-point closing line. Saturday’s shocker was Edmonton covering by the slightest of margins as a 2.5-point road underdog in a tight 25-23 loss to Hamilton. The total in that contest stayed UNDER the 51-point closing line.

The biggest upset of the season took place on Sunday with Montreal upending Calgary 31-15 as a seven-point home underdog. The total stayed just UNDER the 47-point line. Week 13 wrapped things up with Ottawa completing the ATS sweep with a 35-32 loss to Saskatchewan as an 11-point road underdog. The total easily went OVER the 44-point line in that one

Saturday, Sept. 27

Hamilton (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) at Winnipeg (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Tiger-Cats remain in first place in the East Division race with a half-game lead over both Montreal and Toronto and they have been slowly building some momentum with a 3-1 SU record in their last four games. Zach Collaros continued to light things up last week against Edmonton with 318 yards passing and one score while completing 25-of-35 attempts.

Winnipeg is coming off a much needed bye week after dropping five of its last six games SU. It was blown-out in two of those losses, but the average margin of defeat in the other three games was just 5.6 points. The Blue Bombers success this season has come against their old division with a 5-1 SU record in six previous games against the East. One injury note; quarterback Drew Willy remains questionable with a shoulder injury.

Betting Trends

Winnipeg won the first matchup this season 27-26 as a four-point road underdog, but the Tiger-Cats still have a 5-1 SU edge in the last six games and a 4-2 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings.

British Columbia (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) at Calgary (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Lions have gone most of the season with Kevin Glenn under center due to various injuries to Travis Lulay. His overall numbers have been decent with the third-most passing yards in the league (2,703) and a respectable 63.5 completion percentage, but he has just one more touchdown throw (13) than interceptions (12).

Calgary sorely missed Bo Levi Mitchell at the helm as quarterback last week and he remains questionable for Saturday’s game with a knee injury. He is right behind Glenn in passing yards on the year with 2,554 and his completion percentage is 62.6, but the biggest difference is his 17 touchdown passes verse just five interceptions.

Betting Trends

BC squeezed by Calgary 25-24 in early August as a four-point road underdog to hand the Stampeders their only other SU loss this season. The home team in this series won the previous four games SU and ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between these two division rivals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Week 14 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

The week's action then continues on Saturday with games in both Winnipeg and Calgary as the league enters its stretch run.

Sat Sep 27 - Hamilton at Winnipeg

Last 10 Meetings: Winnipeg 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 3-7

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers edged the Hamilton Tiger-Cats as road underdogs on the CFL odds back on July 31 as those teams meet for the second time this season on Saturday night. Winnipeg beat Hamilton 27-26 as a 4.5-point underdog in that earlier meeting in an OVER result for totals bettors. The UNDER, though, is 5-2 in their last seven matchups dating back to the 2012 season.

Sat Sep 27 - B.C. at Calgary

Last 10 Meetings: Calgary 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 6-4

The Calgary Stampeders were handed a rare loss by the B.C. Lions in their first meeting of the season on August 1 as they prepare to renew acquaintances on Saturday night. The Stampeders fell 25-24 at home to the Lions as 4-point favorites in August, dropping them to 1-3 both SU and ATS in the last four games between the two teams. The OVER paid off for totals bettors at the sportsbooks in their first meeting.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Quarterly Report
By Brian Edwards

As we move into Week 5, it's time to take inventory of what's transpired during the 2014 college football season so far.

Let's examine a few of the top contenders (in no particular order) to get started.

**Contenders**

1. Alabama -- Most pundits, including this one, felt like Florida State transfer Jacob Coker would win the starting quarterback job. However, Blake Sims has clearly become the man after leading 'Bama to four consecutive wins, including a 42-21 thrashing of Florida this past weekend. Sims threw for 446 yards and he's feeding the nation's leading receiver (Amari Cooper) like the 'hoss' (Southern term) that he is. As we suggested all summer, Alabama's path to the College Football Playoff is easier -- scheduling-wise -- than any other SEC squad's.

2. Florida State -- The Seminoles are fortunate to still be unbeaten and you get the sense that it's just a matter of time. Jimbo Fisher's team got all it wanted and more from Oklahoma St. in the season opener at AT&T Stadium, escaping with a 37-31 win. Then this past weekend with its star QB suspended for yet another knucklehead off-the-field decision, FSU needed overtime (and a short missed field goal by Clemson in regulation) to slip past its ACC adversary, 23-17, at Doak Campbell Stadium. Jimbo Fisher's team falls into a letdown spot this week in Raleigh, where it has lost outright in three of its last four visits.

3. Auburn -- Speaking of good fortune, Gus Malzahn's team got plenty of it in the form of three missed field goals and a dropped TD pass that turned into an interception in last Thursday's 20-14 win at Kansas St. Whatever the case, one of five daunting road assignments is in the books for Auburn, which still has road games at Mississippi St., Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama. Malzahn is one quirky dude, but he can damn sure coach. Even though the schedule looks like a killer, AU can't be counted out.

4. Oregon -- Marcus Mariota has been nothing short of sensational and that has been mandatory for the Ducks to remain unbeaten. Mariota guided Oregon to 28 unanswered points after trailing Michigan St. 27-18 with five minutes left in the third quarter in Eugene. Then last Saturday, Mariota had to throw five TD passes without being intercepted for his team to escape Pullman with a 38-31 win over Wazzu. The Pac-12 is deep this year and there's only one lay-up (vs. Colorado on Nov. 22) left on the slate.

5. Oklahoma -- Bob Stoops's squad faces its toughest road game of the season on Oct. 4 at TCU. The Sooners have looked good and if they survive the Horned Frogs, somebody is going to have to beat them in Norman to keep them out of the College Football Playoff.

6. Baylor -- The Bears have the nation's No. 1 offense despite missing a slew of key skill players in their first three games. The catch? They've played absolutely nobody. The bright side? The injured players are on their way back and regardless of the opponents, they have looked nasty enough to beat anybody.

7. Texas A&M -- This just in: Kevin Sumlin can coach. Kenny Hill would probably finish second if a Heisman vote was counted today. The Dallas Southlake High School product has a 13/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Check out this looming four-week stretch: vs. Arkansas (in Arlington), at Mississippi St., vs. Ole Miss and at Alabama. The defense is still a question mark and this unit will find out about its run defense Saturday against the Razorbacks.

Other teams most likely to be in the mix come early November: Georgia, Michigan State and Stanford.

**Pretenders**

1. Notre Dame - Trust me, it isn't happening. I'm not even sure the Irish will win nine games.

2. USC - The fan base got a big boost when Stanford beat itself (over and over and over again...) in Palo Alto earlier this month. However, the optimism was crushed at Boston College the following week. The depth just isn't there and although the schedule doesn't look overly daunting, the Trojans have at least two more losses left on the regular-season slate.

3. Nebraska - The Cornhuskers have, to their credit, taken advantage of the easy schedule here early on, but their comeuppance awaits in East Lansing on Oct. 4. They'll lose at Camp Randall on Nov. 15, too. They could sweep a pair of road games at Northwestern and at Iowa, but a split is more likely.

**What to make of this trio?**

1. East Carolina - If QB Shane Carden isn't careful, he's going to end up in New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist. He has the country's most underrated set of wide receivers, including the school's all-time leading receiver in Justin Hardy. ECU lost a tight game at South Carolina, but it has responded by winning at Va. Tech and blasting North Carolina for a second straight year. The Pirates put a 70-spot up on UNC's face and has scored 125 points against the Tar Heels in back-to-back wins the last two years.

2. BYU - The Cougars might be favored in the rest of their games, although we're not implying that it's ever easy to win on the smurf turf in Boise. UCF looked terrible in a loss at Missouri two weeks ago, but a cross-country trip to Orlando on a short week won't be easy, either. BYU has to go on the road to face an improved California team in the regular-season finale, too. With that said, Taysom Hill and Co. might go undefeated and if they do, it might sneak into the College Football Playoff if multiple contenders go down in upset fashion in November.

3. Mississippi State - My best 'over' (7.5) season win total is looking good early, especially after winning at LSU last weekend for the first time since 1991. QB Dak Prescott has been as advertised, but he'll have to play without his starting center (Dillon Day, 38 career starts, one-game suspension from SEC) next week against Texas A&M in Starkville. If the Bulldogs can split back-to-back home games (after an open date) vs. the Aggies and Auburn, they'll have a great shot at being 8-1 going into Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15.

**We're about to find out**

1. Ole Miss: vs. Alabama (Oct. 4).

2. Arkansas: vs. Texas A&M in Arlington on Saturday.

3. TCU: vs. Oklahoma (Oct. 4).

4. Duke: at Miami on Saturday, at Ga. Tech on Oct. 11.

5. Cincinnati: at Ohio St. on Saturday.

6. South Carolina: vs. Missouri on Saturday.

**Disappointments**

1. Michigan - Brady Hoke is in big trouble. Michigan took cream-cheese treatment at Notre Dame. It has the worst turnover margin (-10) in the country. The Wolverines lost outright -- this time by double digits -- to Utah at The Big House for the second time in a decade. It's all entirely too much for the locals in Ann Arbor to handle. The new coaching search is unofficially underway.

2. Ohio State - Sure, expectations went way down when Braxton Miller's shoulder gave out, but still, look at what's happened to Va. Tech since it went to Columbus and won by double digits. The Buckeyes are basically done in September and that just wasn't a good look from the head coach on HBO's 'Real Sports' last night.

3. UCLA - Has an undefeated preseason top-10 team ever looked so shaky? The Bruins are lucky that Arizona St. star QB Taylor Kelly is injured for Thursday's showdown in Tempe. Nevertheless, with QB Brett Hundley and LB/RB Myles Jack banged up, UCLA will still be on upset alert against the Sun Devils.

4. Miami, Fl. - The former players want Al Golden out in Coral Gables. The 'Canes still haven't gone to an ACC Championship Game. They might lose at home to Duke this weekend. If they do, sign up for a one-day follow of those UM/NFL alums on twitter if you're looking for amusement.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 5
By ASA

Game of the Week

Nebraska (-20) vs. Illinois - 9:00 p.m. ET
Nebraska is one of two remaining undefeated Big Ten schools (Penn State is the other) after it made a strong statement win over Miami (FL) last weekend. Credit Nebraska's offense for answering the call every time Miami cut into the lead in the 2nd half. RB Ameer Abdullah led the Huskers with 229 rush yards and three total TD against the Hurricanes while QB Armstrong was an efficient 9-of-13 for 113 yards and 2 TD. Defensively they allowed Miami QB Kaaya to have a big day (28-of-42 for 359 yards and 3 TD) but forced three turnovers and limited the effectiveness of RB Duke Johnson (93 rush yards). If Nebraska wants to keep ascending in the B1G, the defense will have to continue to improve, starting with a home date against a potent Illinois pass-offense this Saturday.

The Illini survived disaster last week against FCS Texas State. The Bobcats held a 21-6 lead in the 1st half before Illinois finally woke up. Illinois finally got a breakout performance from RB Josh Ferguson, who rushed for 190 yards and 2 TD after being held to 126 yards and 1 TD in his first three games combined. It became apparent in a blowout loss to Washington that QB Lunt wasn't going to be able to continuously lead this team to victory, so getting some help from the RB position is a much-needed development. The defense still needs a lot of work. A week after surrendering 464 yards and 44 points to Washington, the Illini looked even worse, allowing Texas State to gain 475 yards and 35 points. Bobcats' QB Jones completed 29-of-46 passes for 336 yards and 4 TD. That defense will need to clean things up fast, or Abdullah and this Husker offense will have a field day. These two have met just once as conference foes and that was last year in Lincoln. Nebraska won the game, 39-19, behind Abdullah's 225 rush yards and 2 TD and Armstrong's 135 pass yards and 2 TD.

Nebraska is 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three home conference games and the Huskers are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more in Big Ten conference games. Illinois is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games as a double-digit underdog.

Best of the Rest

Penn State (-10.5) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 p.m. ET
A week after notching their first conference win over Rutgers, the Nittany Lions easily dispatched the Minutemen of UMass with a 48-7 victory. Although the opposition wasn't the greatest, it was a welcome sign for PSU that it finally got its rushing attack going, notching 228 rush yards on 5.1 YPC (previous game-high was 106 yards). For the first time this season the Nittany Lions weren't dependent on QB Hackenberg leading them to victory - though he's proven that's not the worst plan of attack. UMass' coaching staff praised PSU's defense, specifically the run defense. PSU allowed just 3 rush yards on 28 carries and the Nittany Lions now have the No. 1 rush defense in the nation, surrendering just 45 rush YPG. With an elite QB and a stout defense; if PSU's run game & offensive line continue to improve, the sky is the limit for the Nittany Lions this season.

This week Northwestern visits Happy Valley for the first meeting between these two since 2012. The Wildcats actually won Saturday, but they didn't look particularly good doing so. FCS Western Illinois outgained Northwestern 376-283 and had +7 first downs. The rushing attack was stalled for most of the game (finished with 166 yards on 4 YPC) and QB Siemian had difficulty passing against the FCS opponent. Siemian finished 15-of-25 for just 117 yards. If it weren't for Northwestern's defense forcing four turnovers, this game could've been a complete disaster for the Wildcats. Offensively the Wildcats rank 106th in rush YPG & total YPG and 104th in PPG. Penn State is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five against Northwestern, winning by an average of 16.4 PPG (all five wins have been by 10 points or more). PSU 11-4 ATS in the last 15 home games and 6-1 ATS in the last seven as a home favorite of 10 points or more.

Indiana (-4.5) vs. Maryland - 1:30 p.m. ET
Indiana notched the biggest non-conference victory by a Big Ten team this season in last week's road win at SEC's Missouri. Indiana scored the go-ahead touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining. Despite not being able to sustain many long drives (1-for-14 on 3rd down), the Hoosiers still racked up 493 yards against a good defense. RB Coleman rushed for 132 yards and a score while QB Sudfeld passed for 252 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT (Indiana didn't commit a turnover). Credit the defense, while it wasn't great (surrendered 503 points and 28 first downs), it was able to lock down in key spots (Tigers were just 5-for-16 on 3rd down) and hold Missouri to just 27 points. The Hoosiers gave up a few big plays, but were able to limit Mizzou QB Mauk to just 29-of-48 passing. It was a much-needed win for the Hoosiers after losing to Bowling Green the week before. Now they'll have to avoid a letdown performance against a Maryland squad playing in its first ever B1G conference game.

After last week's road win at Syracuse, the Terps are now 2-0 on the road and prepping for their 3rd road game of the season this week in Bloomington. While Maryland won the game at Syracuse by 14 points, there are still things to be concerned about, most notably on defense. The Terps surrendered 589 yards and 26 first downs, including 370 rush yards on 7.3 YPC. Had Syracuse not finished -2 in turnovers, this outcome could've been a lot different. Maryland's rushing attack notched just 89 yards on 32 carries (2.8 YPC), but QB Brown had a solid day (16-of-26 for 280 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT). The Terps will have to get better at sustaining drives with their rushing attack, or else this Maryland "D" that ranks 102nd against the run and 108th in YPG allowed will have a tough time against this high-octane Indiana offense. Indiana is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home games against B1G foes.

The Hoosiers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite between 0 and 7 points. Maryland is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog, but just 3-6 ATS overall in its last nine as an underdog between 0 and 7 points.

Purdue (+9) vs. Iowa - 12:00 p.m. ET
Purdue achieved its 2nd win of the season last week, doubling last year's win total. Sure, it came against FCS Southern Illinois, but it was a promising development heading into Big Ten play. QB Etling played well, tossing for 198 yards and 2 scores on 15-of-26 passing while also rushing for a score. The Boilers also rushed for a solid 183 yards on 4.2 YPC behind a three-headed attack of RB's. Defensively they still need a lot of work. They allowed 330 yards and 20 first downs, and allowed the Salukis to convert on 10-of-18 3rd downs. This is still a team with a lot of questions; most notably on defense and at quarterback.

Purdue will host its first conference game of the season against Iowa, who is off of a big win of its own. The Hawkeyes fought back from a 10-point 2nd half deficit to take the lead with 6:56 remaining in the 4th behind a stellar performance from backup QB Beathard. The defense held Pitt out of the end zone, preserving the 24-20 victory. Credit the Hawkeyes for coming out on top of a game that was largely dominated by the Panthers. Pitt had +124 yards and +7 first downs, but the Panthers 'D' had no answer for Beathard in the 2nd half. Beathard completed 7-of-8 passes for 98 yards after Rudock left with an unspecified injury. The sophomore opened the week of practice as the starter as Rudock is day-to-day with a leg injury. Iowa continues to struggle running the football (under 4 YPC for the 3rd straight week) and an infuse in the passing game behind Beathard could be just what the doctor ordered for the Hawkeyes to spark their offense. Iowa won last year's matchup by 24 points, and is 3-1 SU & ATS in the last four meetings in West Lafayette.

The Hawkeyes are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 7 points or more. Purdue is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home underdog of 7 points or more, losing by an average of 39 points per game.

Michigan (-11.5) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 p.m. ET
Brady Hoke's seat is getting pretty hot in Ann Arbor as his Wolverines continue to underachieve. They are off of an embarrassing home loss to Utah last Saturday. Michigan turned the ball over four times and tallied just 308 total yards and 10 points. QB Gardner, who was 14-of-26 with 2 INT against Utah, was replaced by Shane Morris, who wasn't much of an improvement (4-of-13 with an INT). Brady Hoke hasn't stated which quarterback will get the call this week, but you can expect a little bit of both, regardless of who starts. The rushing attack wasn't much help either, managing just 118 yards on 3.3 YPC. Defensively there aren't a lot of issues as this may be one of the better units in the Big Ten. They held Utah to just 286 yards, including just 81 yards on 2.2 YPC. But that won't matter if Michigan continues to stink it up on offense. First up on the conference slate is a home date with Minnesota.

Minnesota is off of a 17-point home win over San Jose State. The Gophers rushed 58 times for 380 yards and only completed one pass in the victory. Minny will likely have to complete more than one pass, assuming that Michigan's 8th ranked rush defense limits the Gophers ground game. QB Chris Streveler rushed for 161 yards and a touchdown, but it remains to be seen if he is any threat in the passing game. QB Leidner has practiced this week and hasn't been ruled out for this game, but expect that Streveler gets the start. Minnesota hasn't beaten Michigan since 2005. Michigan is 6-0 SU & ATS in the last six meetings, winning by an average of 28.3 PPG (each win by 14 points or more). This will be the 2nd straight meeting in Ann Arbor. Last year, Michigan had just a 14-7 lead at halftime but outscored the Gophers 28-6 in the 2nd half to achieve the 42-13 victory.

Michigan is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games as a favorite of 10 points or more.

Ohio State (-15.5) vs. Cincinnati - 6:00 p.m. ET
The Buckeyes enjoyed a bye week last week after a drubbing of Kent State two weeks ago. The Buckeyes' offense finally broke out against KSU to the tune of 66 points, 33 first downs, and 628 yards. QB J.T. Barrett tossed for 312 yards and 6 TD, gaining some much-needed confidence as the Buckeyes inch closer to conference play. The defense was outstanding as well, holding Kent State to just 126 yards and 10 first downs while pitching a shutout. We know that it was against a lowly MAC program, but it was a much needed dominant performance after the home loss to VA Tech on September 6th. OSU now plays its third consecutive home game when Cincinnati comes to town on Saturday.

Cincinnati has played just two games so far, but its safe to assume the defense isn't great. They allowed 563 yards and 34 points in a win against Toledo, and 364 yards and 24 points to a terrible Miami (OH) team last week. They now rank 111th against the pass and 109th in total defense. That's not a good omen heading into a matchup with an OSU squad that just put up a 66-spot. Former top-QB recruit Gunner Kiel runs the show for Cincinnati's offense after transferring from Notre Dame. He has racked up 689 yards with 10 TD and 2 INT through two games, albeit against two poor defenses. He'll get his first difficult test in the Horseshoe on Saturday against OSU's pass-defense that is surrendering just 99.3 pass YPG (3rd nationally) with 2 TD allowed and 5 INT. These in-state foes have met twice since 2004 with the last matchup in 2006. OSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS in those two games, winning by an average score of 32-6.5. OSU is 24-14 ATS in its last 38 home games.

The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a favorite between 10 and 20 points. Cincinnati is 0-4 SU & ATS in its last four home openers and just 5-10-1 ATS in the last 16 games as a double-digit underdog.

Wisconsin (-34) vs. South Florida - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Badgers had no issues at home against Bowling Green last week. They rushed for the fourth-most yards in Big Ten history (644) behind a HUGE day from RB Gordon. After notching just 38 yards on 17 carries against FCS Western Illinois; the star RB ran angry. He rushed for 253 yards and five TD on just 13 carries. It was one of the most dominating rushing performances you'll ever see as Gordon, QB McEvoy, and backup RB Clement all topped 100 yards - 3rd string RB Ogunbowale nearly hit the century mark but finished just short with 94 rush yards. Wisconsin will continue to pound the ball to aid 1st year starting QB McEvoy who continues to improve each week (32-of-44 passing for 395 yards with 4 TD the last two games). Defensively it may just be the competition, but the Badgers defense looks to be one of the top units in the B1G. They rank 15th against the run, 25th against the pass, and 14 in PPG allowed. The defensive unit should have another solid day against this struggling USF offense.

The Bulls had a three-point home win over UConn last week to improve their record to 2-2 on the season. It wasn't a pretty performance as USF tallied just 271 yards in the pouring rain, including 158 rush yards on 3.0 YPC. The Bulls' offense is now 119th in pass yards, 118th in total yards, and 101st in PPG. Their QB play has been below-average at best as three players have combined for 39% completions with 2 TD and 5 INT through four games. USF QB's will have another tough day against this Badgers pass-defense that has surrendered just 49.3% completions with 2 TD and 2 INT this season. The Badgers are 62-7 SU at home over the last 10 years - 30-0 SU against non-conference opponents.

Wisconsin is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite of 20 points or more. USF is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 6-3 ATS in their last 9 road openers (includes covers against Penn State in 2005 and Michigan State in 2013).

Michigan State (-31) vs. Wyoming - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Spartans continue to look like the best team in the Big Ten after an absolutely dominating performance against Eastern Michigan. Take a look at some of these offensive numbers for EMU: 135 total yards, 5 first downs, 20 rush yards on 19 carries, 1-for-13 on 3rd down, and 10-of-29 passing. A lot of the Spartans' starters didn't even get two full quarters of play before they were replaced and MSU still won, 73-14. It was just the type of dominating performance the Spartans needed after losing their last game to Oregon. This week it could be more of the same as Wyoming visits for MSU's homecoming.

Wyoming isn't as bad as Eastern Michigan, but the Cowboys' struggling offense will be hard pressed to put up points against this Spartans defense. Wyoming ranks 102nd in yards per game and 121st in points per game. They haven't scored more than 20 points in a game yet this season. Defensively they held three of their four opponents below 20 points, but Oregon put up 48 points and 556 yards in a 34 point loss on September 13th. Wyoming is in a letdown spot here after beating Florida Atlantic by one point last week on a field goal with 15 seconds remaining.

Michigan State is 4-2 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of 30 points or more and 6-3 ATS in the last nine as a double-digit favorite against non-conference foes. Wyoming is 4-0 in its last four games as an underdog of 30 points or more.

Rutgers (-11.5) vs. Tulane - 12:00 p.m. ET
Rutgers notched a solid road win over Navy last weekend, a much-needed victory after dropping a close one to Penn State on September 13. The Scarlet Knights jumped out to an early lead and were able to control the TOP, something that rarely happens against Navy. They limited Navy to just 171 rush yards - 174 below Navy's season average. Rutgers QB Nova was an efficient 11-of-14 passing for 151 yards while the Knights also rushed for 284 yards on 5.1 YPC. The win came at a price, however, as Rutgers lost star tailback Paul James to a season-ending torn ACL. James was Rutgers’ workhorse, the most consistent part about the Knights’ offense. In James’ first three games this season, he accounted for more than 60 percent of the team’s rushing yards while scoring 7 total TD. It was a promising sign that James' replacement, Justin Goodwin, rushed for 104 yards on 26 carries with 1 TD last week after James left with an injury. Still, losing James will be a big blow for this already struggling offense.

Goodwin and this rush offense will have a chance to get right without James against the Green Wave rush-defense that allows 203 YPG on the ground. Tulane is 1-3 this season with the lone victory coming against FCS Southeastern Louisiana. The Wave are off of a blowout loss to Duke last week. Duke forced five Tulane turnovers - returning 2 INT for TD - and limited the Wave to just 5-for-18 on 3rd down and 13 total points. Tulane QB Lee has been awful. He's completing just 47.4% of his passes with 8 TD and 9 INT. These two have met twice since 2010. Rutgers is 0-2 ATS in both meetings.

Rutgers is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games and also just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. Tulane is 16-9 ATS in its last 23 games, but just 1-3 ATS so far this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 5
By Kevin Rogers

Heading into Week 5 of the college football season, there are plenty of play-against teams to keep an eye on. Several of these squads are still heavy underdogs, but some of them aren’t receiving as many points but are still poor clubs to back. This week, we’ll take a look at six squads who continue to underachieve and are strong looks to bet against.

Vanderbilt (+17) at Kentucky – 12:00 PM EST

The Commodores managed their first cover of the season in last week’s 48-34 home defeat to South Carolina as 23-point underdogs. Vandy grabbed an early 14-0 lead, but the Gamecocks scored 48 points in the final three quarters, while two touchdowns by the Commodores came on kickoff returns. Now, the Commodores hit the road for the first time following a 1-3 start, while allowing at least 31 points in each of the first four games.

Vanderbilt put together a 3-1 ATS record as a road underdog last season, heading to Lexington to battle a rested Wildcats’ team. Kentucky cashed as 17 ½-point ‘dogs in a triple-overtime setback at Florida two weeks ago, while easily covering in home blowouts of Tennessee-Martin and Ohio. The Wildcats have lost three straight games to Vanderbilt since 2011, as these teams normally face each other in November. Kentucky is favored for the first time in conference action since 2010, when the Wildcats last beat Vandy, 38-20 as 17-point ‘chalk.’

Tulane (+11 ½) at Rutgers – 12:00 PM EST

The Scarlet Knights are coming off a strong effort in last Saturday’s 31-24 victory at Navy as six-point underdogs after their heartbreaking loss to Penn State. Rutgers hosts a Tulane squad that hung with Duke last week before the Blue Devils outscored the Green Wave, 28-6 in the second half, capped off by a pair of interception returns for touchdowns.

The Green Wave hits the highway again this Saturday, as Tulane has allowed at least 38 points in each of its three losses. Last season, Tulane posted a 7-2 ATS record as an underdog, but the Wave isn’t having the same luck this season with an 0-3 ATS mark when receiving points. Rutgers has covered in three of its four contests, but all three ATS victories have come in the underdog role. The lone non-cover for the Scarlet Knights came in 38-25 win over Howard as heavy 38-point favorites.

SMU (+32 ½) vs. TCU – 12:00 PM EST

How many points is too many points to lay against SMU? To review, the Mustangs were 31 ½-point underdogs in a 45-0 shutout at Baylor to open the season. SMU followed up that dreadful performance with a 43-6 drubbing at North Texas as 2 ½-point ‘dogs, then were wiped out at home by Texas A&M as 33 ½-point ‘dogs, 58-6. Now, the Mustangs will try to hang around with their Metroplex rival, as SMU has put up just one touchdown in 12 quarters, which came on the final play of the loss at North Texas.

The Horned Frogs have gone through each of their two bye weeks already, while owning a 2-0 SU/ATS record. TCU struggled last season with a 4-8 record, but has picked up blowout victories over Samford and Minnesota to start this season. Prior history doesn’t mean much with SMU’s horrible start, but TCU has won six of the past seven meetings in this series, while the Mustangs have covered five times as a double-digit underdog.

Akron (+20) at Pittsburgh – 1:30 PM EST

The Zips began the season with some promise by blowing out Howard, 41-0 as 25-point favorites. Then Akron stepped up in class and dropped a pair of games to Penn State (21-3) and Marshall (48-17), while not covering either contest as a double-digit underdog. Both of Akron’s touchdowns last week against Marshall came in the fourth quarter, as the Zips snapped a seven-quarter streak of being held out of the end zone.

Pittsburgh suffered its first loss of the season in a 24-20 home defeat to Iowa, as the Panthers blew a 17-7 lead. The Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes, 435-311, as Pitt has out-yarded each of its four opponents by at least 120 yards. Since 2012, Pittsburgh has covered six of its past nine games as a favorite at Heinz Field, while putting together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record in its previous five home contests off a loss.

Kent State (+23 ½) at Virginia – 3:30 PM EST

The Cavaliers were the worst team in the ACC last season, but have put together two solid performances the last two weeks against Louisville and BYU. UVA upset Louisville as a short four-point home underdog, while covering as 14 ½-point ‘dogs in a 41-33 defeat at BYU to improve to 4-0 ATS this season.

Kent State has been anything but flashy this season, coming off a 66-0 drubbing at the hands of Ohio State two weeks ago. The Golden Flashes have just 27 points in three losses, while dropping eight of their past 10 games since last October. How bad has it been for Kent State on the road against non-conference opponents since the start of 2013? Opponents have outscored the Golden Flashes, 183-34, as Kent State lost to LSU, Penn State, South Alabama, and Ohio State, while covering just once.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams

One game in the Pac-12 is already in the books, as UCLA thumped Arizona State in the desert Thursday by a 62-27 count. The Sun Devils did not look anything close to a Top 12 team without their leader, QB Taylor Kelly, on the sideline due to injury. 'Over' bettors were able to switch off their television set by the middle of the third quarter, as that ticket easily cashed.


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 4-0 1-0 1-3 2-2
Arizona State 3-1 1-1 1-3 2-2
California 2-1 0-1 3-0 2-1
Colorado 2-2 0-1 2-2 1-3
Oregon 4-0 1-0 1-3 2-2
Oregon State 3-0 0-0 1-2 1-2
Southern California 2-1 1-0 2-1 2-1
Stanford 2-1 0-1 2-1 0-2
UCLA 4-0 1-0 1-3 2-2
Utah 3-0 0-0 3-0 2-1
Washington 4-0 0-0 1-3 1-3
Washington State 1-3 0-1 2-2 2-2


Colorado at California (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Cal is back in action at home after their stunning Hail Mary loss at Arizona last weekend. It will be interesting to see how the Golden Bears regroup. After being rather terrible against the number the past two seasons, Cal is one of just two Pac-12 teams with an unblemished ATS record at 3-0. Colorado has been a little bit better this season, including last week's 21-12 win over Hawaii at home. The Golden Bears have gotten off to good starts this season, outscoring the opposition 56-0 in the first quarter through three games. Colorado is 4-0 ATS in the past four Pac-12 games, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. However, they're just 8-18 ATS in the past 26 against a team with a winning record, and 10-25 ATS in their past 35 on the road against a team with a winning home mark. These two teams have shown signs of an explosive offense, and rather marginal defense, so the over might be a good play. The over is 7-2 in Colorado's past nine road contests, and 16-5 in their past 21 on field turf. For Cal, the over is 6-2-1 in their past nine at home.

Stanford at Washington (FOX, 4:15p.m. ET)
Stanford heads up to Seattle in a tough spot, as they're already 0-1 in the conference. The Cardinal will try to use a suffocating defense to hold the Huskies at bay. Stanford has pitched two shutouts against UC-Davis and Army, and they allowed just 13 points in their loss at home to USC. The Cardinal have won seven of the past nine in this series, and that includes last season's thrilling 31-28 shootout in Palo Alto. The Huskies will be without RB Jesse Callier (Achilles'), who is done for the season after tearing his Achilles' tendon against Georgia State, and WR Josh Ross (leg) is a question mark to play. Washington will need all hands on deck if they're to send Stanford back to the Bay Area with an 0-2 conference mark.

Washington State at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Washington State came close last weekend against Oregon, going toe-to-toe with the national title contenders in a 38-31 loss against the Ducks. That near-miss might give the Cougars confidence as they head to Rice-Eccles for a date with Utah. The Utes picked up a 26-10 win at the Big House last week against disappointing Michigan, keeping their loss column clean. Utah will be looking for its first-ever Pac-12 opener win in four tries, and they try to avenge a 49-37 loss to the Cougs in Pullman last season. WaZu is 11-5 ATS in the past 16 against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight road games. Utah is 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, and 13-5 ATS in the past 18 against a team with a losing record. As mentioned, they're one of only two Pac-12 teams with an unbeaten ATS record this season (3-0).

Oregon State at Southern California (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
USC has had two weeks off since its inexplicable road loss at Boston College. It wasn't shocking that they lost, but how they were trampled in the 37-31 setback. They allowed 452 yards, including more rushing yards than they had given up in a game in 10 years. The rested Trojans will try to knock the Beavers from the ranks of the unbeaten. Oregon State has won at Hawaii, and at home against Portland State and San Diego State, but they're just 1-2 ATS despite the wins. The Beavs did cover last week against the Aztecs, but are just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 following up a cover. Oregon State has covered five of the past seven in this series, and the underdog has cashed in each of the past four meetings. USC is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 overall, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight Pac-12 games.

 

[Cbass1533]

Anyone have Steve fezzik weekend plays?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-1 0-1 3-1 2-1-1
Clemson 1-2 0-1 2-1 2-1
Duke 4-0 0-0 2-1-1 1-2
Florida State 3-0 1-0 0-3 1-2
Georgia Tech 4-0 1-0 2-2 3-1
Louisville 3-1 1-1 3-1 1-3
Miami (Fla.) 2-2 0-1 1-3 2-2
North Carolina 2-1 0-0 0-3 1-1
North Carolina State 4-0 0-0 2-2 2-2
Pittsburgh 3-1 1-0 2-2 2-1-1
Syracuse 2-1 0-0 1-2 1-1-1
Virginia 2-2 1-0 4-0 2-2
Virginia Tech 2-2 0-1 2-2 1-2
Wake Forest 2-2 0-0 2-2 1-3


Florida State at North Carolina State (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30p.m. ET)
Carter-Finley Stadium has been a trouble spot for the Seminoles over the years, and they will find a dangerous, and still unbeaten, Wolfpack team eagerly awaiting their visit. NC State has run out to a 4-0 start, and looked impressive over the past two games in particular, but they haven't seen a level of competition close to that of the defending national champs. Still, FSU is just 3-13-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings with NC State, and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Raleigh. The 'Noles have QB Jameis Winston after his suspension against Clemson, a game which the team barely won in overtime in Tallahassee last weekend. This is a big measuring stick game for NC State, a team getting nearly 20 points on their home turf.

North Carolina at Clemson (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Two angry clubs will meet in the upstate Saturday night looking for a little redemption. The Tar Heels had their doors blown off on the coastal plain last week, as East Carolina hung 70 on them in a loss. Clemson looked to have a win in the bag in Tallahassee last week, but frittered away a late opportunity and then never got on track in overtime in a loss. A win against North Carolina won't save their season, but a loss at home would end it for all intents and purposes. The Tar Heels have covered just three of their past 12 road games, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in the past eight, and they have covered the number in 20 of their past 28 ACC tilts.

Duke at Miami, Fla. (ESPN2, 7:30 p.m.)
Duke is 4-0 for the first time in 20 years, and they have won 12 straight regular season games, which is good for the second-longest active streak in the nation. The Blue Devils have also won six in a row on the road, last falling Nov. 17, 2012. Still, the Blue Devils find themselves as a touchdown underdog heading down to South Florida. The Hurricanes were dropped 41-31 at Nebraska last weekend, and they are 0-2 on the road. However, they have won each of their two games at home. Miami looks to maintain its dominance against Duke, too. While they lost 48-30 at Wallace Wade in Durham last year, the Hurricanes are 9-2 all-time against the Blue Devils. Duke is 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 overall, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight ACC games. Miami is 2-10 ATS in the past 12, and 1-7 ATS in the past eight conference tilts, trends which probably explain why the public is picking Duke at a near 2-to-1 clip.

Notre Dame vs Syracuse (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Fighting Irish head to the Meadowlands to battle an Orange team which is hard to figure. The Irish are 5-1 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record, but just 1-6 ATS in their past seven on field turf. The Orange are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 non-conference tilts, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record. But which Syracuse team will we see? The team which barely scratched out an overtime win over FCS foe Villanova, the one which slaughtered a solid Central Michigan team on the road or the one which was dumped by two touchdowns at home against former ACC foe Maryland? It is hard to know what you're going to get from 'Cuse. They won't be getting WR Ashton Broyld (leg), as he has been ruled OUT, and he has been one of their top receiving threats. Notre Dame can still be had as a single-digit favorite in most shops, and they might be a very good value. The Irish have allowed a total of just 31 points in three games, including a shutout of Michigan.

Other ACC teams in action
Colorado State at Boston College (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Western Michigan at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
Akron at Pittsburgh (ESPN3, 1:30 p.m.)
Kent State at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 5
By Chris David

Week 4 Recap

Once again there was a great balance in the totals market last weekend as the ‘under’ produced a 24-20 record in FBS matchups. Through four weeks of the regular season, FBS teams are averaging 31.6 points per game, which is a record pace yet. When you see those total results and glaring offensive numbers, it shows you how good the oddsmakers really are.

For those of you following the action live this past Saturday, I hope you take advantage of the many options, which include second-half wagering and in-game wagering or what most shops call “Live Betting.”
As part of our weekly column, VegasInsider.com total expert James Manos returns with his weekly thoughts and advice on playing halves.

Manos explained, “I do believe that betting into the totals market on second halves and "Live Betting" offer better chances at winning than playing second-half or live sides. When playing second-half totals you really have to be cognizant of how many plays you expect to be run and what "end of game" situation you expect to see.

For instance, Team A is a power running, control offense, B+ and above level defensive team and they are playing Team B which is a up-tempo, high play count, passing team with a C defense, the total score of the game at halftime may have less to do with the preferred second-half total bet than the halftime scoring differential does. If it's a close game, does Team A continue to play its game or intentionally try to shorten the game even more by playing slow? If Team A leads by double-digits can they control the clock or does that help Team B play even faster? Obviously, also, you should be very aware of who will receive the 2nd half kickoff and how that will affect the game. If Team A receives the kickoff and goes on an 11 play drive that lasts 8 minutes and result in a FG, you're 2nd half over bet could be toast before it even starts.

Live betting can be a different animal. Lots of outfits say they offer "in game" betting and then make it virtually impossible to get wagers in. Others offer live wagering but make the limits low and juice high, rendering it worthless. Live wagering can be advantageous though as the programs they use to create the "in game totals" often don't account for actual gameplay, allowing an aware bettor to take advantage.

In addition, LARGE middles can be created when lulls or sudden swings occur in games. An increase in live wagering is on the horizon and it's the marketplace of the future but I still prefer to play full game totals over any other options due to higher betting limits and the length of the game minimizing randomness. Fumble return for a TD in your UNDER 48 full game wager, you can survive. Fumble return for a TD in your 2nd half UNDER 23.5 wager, uhhh ohhh.”

Big Five (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 last week and one of those winners included the Maryland-Syracuse game, which in most cases should’ve gone ‘over’ the number. The total closed at 54 ½ at most books and the Terrapins opened a 31-13 lead at halftime but only 10 combined points were scored in the second-half.

Only three games featured Big 12 opponents last week and the ‘under’ produced a 2-1 record.

Despite watching Michigan State (73), Penn State (48) and Wisconsin (68) explode offensively last weekend, the ‘under’ went 6-5 in the Big Ten.

The Pac-12 almost watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 in Week 5 but that was before the Arizona-California matchup saw an eye-opening 50 points scored in the fourth quarter last Saturday. The Golden Bears lead 31-13 heading into the final quarter and ‘over’ bettors (70) needed help. The Wildcats outscored Cal 36-14 in the last 15 minutes, which include a Hail Mary touchdown to capture a 49-45 win. Those playing Live Betting on this late-night tilt must’ve had a blast.

The ‘over’ went 6-2 in the SEC last week and this could be a reoccurring theme with this group. We asked Manos his thoughts on the conference and the new offensive identity and he wasn’t buying the high-scoring approach, just yet.

Manos answered, “Increase in scoring in the SEC this season is a bit of a fluke. Lower level teams like Kentucky and Vanderbilt will still struggle to score against the premium powers. However, the Big 12 crossovers, Texas A&M and Missouri have brought a more wide open approach to the league. I do believe that eventually it will be those schools that have to adjust to the SEC and not the other way around. Texas A&M is doomed to become the Oregon Ducks of the SEC, they will score a ton of points, play entertaining games, and produce tons of quality skill position players but they will never win a National Title or consistently defeat the more physical teams in the league until THEY change. Oregon doesn't defeat SEC squads for a reason, Alabama is good every year for a reason, the SEC's overall defensive talent is vastly superior to any other conference's……and it's not even close. You have to adjust to that before you can truly advance.

Also, Auburn's offense seems to have come back to the pack a bit as SEC defensive coordinators get more film to look at and game experience to evaluate that will happen with Texas A&M as well. I don't see the fundamental shift in nature in the SEC that I saw in the Big 12 five years ago. That conference shifted when the offensive talent at most of its schools started to far outweigh the defensive talent and it has simply never shifted back as schools like Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech became successful simply playing "video game" football.

The fundamental nature of the SEC won't switch until a school figures out how to beat Alabama and LSU on a regular basis. There must be a power shift to promote a philosophy shift and not the other way around.”

Streaks to Watch

Four schools in action on Saturday have a chance to extend their total streaks to 5-0.

Over (4-0)

Tulane at Rutgers
Louisiana Tech at Auburn

Under (4-0)

Navy vs. Western Kentucky
Wyoming at Michigan State


Line Moves

In a previous Total Notes piece, Manos touched on how he analyzes line movements in the totals market and divided the shifts into four categories.

Listed below are examples of each category for Week 5.

1) Correct sharp movement - Maryland/Indiana OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Duke/Miami OVER
3) Public movement - Notre Dame/Syracuse OVER
4) Market manipulation - Texas State/Tulsa OVER

Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS as of Friday evening.


Week 5 Moves

Rotation Open Current
Minnesota at Michigan 46.5 42.5
Maryland at Indiana 64.5 70
Baylor at Iowa State 66 71.5
Temple at UConn 48 45
Akron at Pittsburgh 47.5 51
Vanderbilt at Kentucky 53.5 48.5
Wake Forest 44.5 41.5
Texas State at Tulsa 64 67
Bowling Green at UMass 64.5 71.5
TCU at SMU 51 48
Oregon State 51.5 55.5
Texas at Kansas 44.5 41
Duke at Miami, Fl. 55.5 61.5
South Alabama at Idaho 55 59
Nevada at San Jose State 56 53

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Action
By Brian Edwards

**Texas A&M vs. Arkansas**

-- As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Texas A&M (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) listed as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 72. The Wynn in Las Vegas opened the line at 14.5, but it moved the number to 11.5 within an hour. By Monday, most spots were down to 9.5 or nine and the line got as low as 8.5 on Tuesday. The total started at 70 or 70.5 at most places. Gamblers can take the Razorbacks on the money line for a +290 payout (risk $100 to win $290).

-- Arkansas (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) has won three in a row since dropping its opener at Auburn by a 45-21 count. The Razorbacks blasted No. Illinois 52-14 as 13.5-point home favorites last weekend. Brandon Allen threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Allen, who also had a rushing score vs. the Huskies, has an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio for the year.

-- Bret Bielema's squad is all about running the football. Arkansas has a stout offensive line in front of two of the nation's top RBs in sophomore Alex Collins and junior Jonathan Williams. Collins has rushed for 490 yards and five TDs while averaging 7.5 yards per carry. Williams has run for 391 yards and seven TDs and is sporting an 8.1 YPC average.

-- Texas A&M proved it wasn't a one-trick pony by going into Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 1 and smashing South Carolina 52-28 as a 10-point underdog. Kenny Hill was sensational in Columbia on that night and has remained so since then. The Dallas Southlake High School product has a stellar 13/1 TD-INT ratio and would probably finish second for the Heisman Trophy if the votes had to be counted today.

-- Hill is completing 69.8 percent of his throws and leads the SEC in passing yards (1,359).

-- Arkansas owns a 3-7 spread record in 10 games as an underdog on Bielema's watch.

-- Texas A&M WR Speedy Noil will miss his second straight game due to a knee injury. In the Aggies' first three contests, the true freshman WR had 12 receptions for 197 yards and one TD. Also, Noil had a 53-yard kick return and was averaging 24.7 yards per punt return.

-- The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 for Arkansas this season.

-- The 'under' has cashed in both of Texas A&M's games home games this year.

-- The 'over' has hit in three consecutive head-to-head meetings with combined scores of 80, 78 and 68.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Missouri at South Carolina**

-- As of early Friday afternoon, most betting shops had South Carolina (3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 62. Gamblers can take the Tigers to win outright for a +185 return (risk $100 to win $185).

-- Missouri (3-1 SU, ATS) fell victim to a look-ahead situation last week, losing outright to Indiana by a 31-27 score as a 14-point home favorite. The Tigers went ahead by three with 2:20 remaining, but the Hoosiers answered with a touchdown drive capped by D'Angelo Roberts's three-yard TD run with 22 ticks left.

-- In the losing effort, Maty Mauk threw for 331 yards and two TDs. Russell Hansbrough rushed for 119 yards and one TD on just 10 carries. Mauk is now 7-2 in nine career starts. He has a 14/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season and a 25/6 ratio for his career. Hansbrough is averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

-- Gary Pinkel's team has been dynamite on the road in recent years, compiling a 22-9 spread record going back to 2007. In its last 10 games as a road underdog, Missouri has cashed tickets at a 7-3 ATS clip.

-- Although it didn't lose outright like Missouri, South Carolina was also a victim of a look-ahead spot for our purposes last week. The Gamecocks escaped Music City with a 48-34 win over Vanderbilt, but they trailed for nearly the entire first half, by as much as 14 at one point, and failed to cover the number as 21.5-point favorites.

-- In the win over Vandy, Dylan Thompson threw for 237 yards and three TDs without an interception. He has 1,160 passing yards through four games with an 11/3 TD-INT ratio.

-- During Steve Spurrier's tenure, South Carolina owns a 26-21 spread record as a home favorite. However, the Gamecocks are 0-2 ATS in such spots this year.

-- The 'over' is 3-1 for South Carolina, 2-1 in its home games.

-- When these teams met at Williams-Brice Stadium in 2012, South Carolina captured a 31-10 win as a 10.5-point home 'chalk.' Connor Shaw completed 20-of-21 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, while Marcus Lattimore rushed for a pair of scores.

-- The rematch last season looked more like a mismatch through three quarters. Missouri had a 17-0 lead and Spurrier was turning to Shaw to give his team a spark even though he was injured and basically playing on one leg. Whatever the case, the move was a stroke of genius. Shaw promptly led South Carolina to 17 unanswered points to force overtime. After Missouri scored a TD in the first extra session, Shaw responded by finding Bruce Ellington for a 15-yard scoring strike on fourth down. In the second OT, Elliot Fry buried a 40-yard field and then on the Tigers' ensuing possession, they had to settle for a field-goal attempt after having a first and goal at the nine. The kick hit the post and the Gamecocks escaped with one of their most improbable wins in school history.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E's Bonus Nuggets**

-- Rutgers star RB Paul James is out for the season after tearing his ACL in a 31-24 win at Navy. James was already off to a great start against the Midshipmen, rushing for 96 yards and one touchdown until getting injured on just his seventh carry. His season ends with 363 rushing yards, five TDs and a 5.8 yards-per-carry average. James led the Scarlet Knights to an upset win at Washington St. in Week 1 by rushing for 173 yards and three TDs.

-- Oregon State owns an incredible 21-6 spread record in its last 27 games as a road underdog dating back to November of 2007. The unbeaten Beavers are 11.5-point 'dogs Saturday at USC. They won't have their leading receiver against the Trojans, though. Sophomore Victor Bolden is 'out' after sustaining an injury to his finger in last week's 28-7 home win over San Diego St. Bolden has made 18 catches for 192 yards so far in 2014.

-- Northwestern is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats are catching a double-digit number Saturday at Penn St.

-- Ole Miss is 7-3 ATS as a home favorite during Hugh Freeze's tenure. The Rebels host Memphis on Saturday as 21-point home 'chalk.' This is a vintage look-ahead spot with Alabama set to invade Oxford next weekend for a crucial SEC West showdown.

-- With its spread cover in Thursday's win over Appalachian St., Ga. Southern became the country's first team to get to 5-0 ATS. Virginia and East Carolina are sporting 4-0 ATS ledgers.

-- There are three teams who are 0-4 ATS. They are UNLV, Utah St. and UConn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (3-0) at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (4-0)
Line & Total: Florida State -18.5, Total: 59

Two undefeated teams, No. 1 Florida State and North Carolina State, go head-to-head on Saturday in an attempt to keep a flawless record.

Florida State has not had the easy run it expected when coming into the 2014 season and has yet to cover a spread (0-3 ATS). Last week against Clemson, the line started at 19.5, but quickly finished at -10.5 once it was announced that QB Jameis Winston would be suspended for the entire game after shouting obscenities in the student union. Without their star, the Seminoles just barely squeaked out a victory against the Tigers with a 23-17 overtime win despite being outgained by their opponent 407-318 in total yards and gaining a mere 27 yards (0.5 YPC) on the ground.

NC State has also won each of its games, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, but has faced much worse competition. In the season opener, the Wolfpack beat Georgia Southern by just a point (24-23) as 20.5-point favorites, but have since defeated their opponents by an average of 28.7 points per game. Last weekend they shut out Presbyterian 42-0 as 38-point favorites, as they gained 460 total yards. In the past two seasons in this series, NC State has been able to cover the spread each time and is 1-1 SU despite failing to score in the first half of either meeting.

Last season, FSU did not cover the 35-point spread after defeating the Wolfpack 49-17 while forcing three turnovers and outgained their opponent 548-316. In the game, Winston was the star with 292 passing yards and three touchdowns (1 INT) while the team added four scores on the ground. Trends show that since 1992, the Seminoles are 35-19 ATS (65%) after two or more consecutive ATS losses, while North Carolina State is 11-3 ATS (79%) after gaining 7.25 yards per play in its previous game in that same timeframe.

Injuries could hamper the Seminoles with LB Ukeme Eligwe (foot) and DL Mario Edwards (concussion) listed as questionable, while the Wolfpack have no significant injuries to report.

While Florida State has been great through the air, throwing for 319.7 YPG (21st in FBS), the team has failed to get its ground game going with a mere 109.7 YPG (17th-fewest in nation) as it scores 32.3 PPG. QB Jameis Winston (626 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has been all over media of late with his one-game suspension and the team missed his leadership, as it needed a late, fourth-quarter fumble to escape past Clemson last week. Winston completed 70% of his passes over the first two wins this season while getting 9.3 YPA but threw two interceptions in a tough game to start the year against Oklahoma State.

Leading the suspect backfield is HB Karlos Williams (177 rush yards, 2 TD) who has averaged 4.2 YPC and has yet to get more than 70 yards in any of the first three contests. WR Rashad Greene has been the team’s best receiver and is building off his big 2013 season (1,128 rec. yards, 9 TD) with a team-leading 24 receptions and 418 yards (17.4 avg) while scoring twice.

The Seminoles defense has looked quite good so far, allowing opponents to score 20.0 PPG (30th in nation) but may be without top DL Mario Edwards (4 tackles, 1 sack) because of a concussion. In his absence, LB Terrance Smith (17 tackles) has been the leader on this side of the ball.

Facing poor defenses has allowed the NC State offense to rank 25th in total yards (502 YPG) while doing most of their work on the ground with 248.8 YPG (25th in FBS). The offense has been led by impressive performances from QB Jacoby Brissett (1,005 pass yards, 10 TD, 1 INT) who has multiple touchdown passes in each of the four games while adding 118 yards (5.1 YPC) and a touchdown to the rushing attack. Joining him in the backfield is a cast of talented runners with HB Shadrach Thornton (283 rush yards, 5 TD) leading the way, as he has double-digit attempts in 3-of-4 games and has at least one score in each of the past three contests.

Joining him and doing well has been HBs Matt Dayes and Tony Creecy who have combined to rush for 437 yards (7.2 YPC) and three touchdowns. The ball is spread across plenty of receivers with five different players grabbing nine or more receptions while WR Bo Hines leads the team in both receptions (16) and yards (209). Meanwhile, HB Matt Dayes (185 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Bra’Lon Cherry (97 yards, 3 TDs) have provided the bulk of the scoring through the air so far.

Through the first four games, the defense has allowed a mere 18.5 PPG (23rd in FBS) while being led by DB Juston Burris (7 tackles).

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (3-1) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (4-0)
Line & Total: Texas A&M -9, Total: 71.5

No. 6 Texas A&M looks to remain perfect through five games when it hosts Arkansas on Saturday afternoon.

Arkansas opened the year with a 45-21 loss as 17-point underdogs in Auburn, but has since gone 3-0 both SU and ATS against Nicholls State, Texas Tech and Northern Illinois. The Razorbacks dominated as 13.5-point favorites at home against NIU last week with a 52-14 victory as they totaled 427 yards and played a game with zero turnovers and just four penalties for 30 yards.

Texas A&M has not missed a beat after losing Johnny Manziel to the NFL, and is 4-0 SU while going 3-1 ATS. The big victory was the season opener when it destroyed a talented South Carolina team by a score of 52-28 as a 9-point underdog. Since then the Aggies have averaged 56.3 PPG while allowing their opposition to score less than a touchdown (6.3 PPG) per game. They traveled to SMU last week as 33.5-point favorites and came away with a 58-6 win while gaining an impressive 663 total yards, including 395 yards through the air. These two programs have had some high-scoring battles over their past three meetings with each going Over the total while seeing the home team covering ATS each time.

Last year, the Aggies won 45-33 on the road while forcing two turnovers and barely failing to cover the 13-point spread. Unfortunately for Texas A&M, the club is an atrocious 3-17 ATS (15%) in road games after gaining 525+ total yards in its previous contest since 1992, but the Razorbacks are a woeful 3-12 ATS (20%) after playing a home game since the start of the 2012 campaign.

There are no new significant injuries for this game.

The Razorbacks have been one of the best teams in the nation on the ground with 324.5 rushing YPG (8th in FBS) while sacrificing the passing attack (160 YPG) and piling up 48.8 PPG (3rd in nation). QB Brandon Allen (552 pass yards, 8 TD, 1 INT) has been efficient while hitting on 61% of his attempts, and has been sacked just once with 22 or fewer attempts in each of the past three games. The run game is a two-headed monster with HBs Alex Collins (490 rush yards, 5 TD) and Jonathan Williams (391 rush yards, 7 TD) dominating opposing defenses. Collins' big game came in the win over Texas Tech in which he broke 200 yards (212) and added two scores while Williams missed the last contest and had at least one score in the first three.

The one wide receiver to keep an eye on in this roster is WR Keon Hatcher (196 rec. yards, 2 TD) who had his best game last week against NIU (107 yards, 1 TD). The defense for Arkansas has given up a hefty 373.3 YPG thus far, leading to 23.5 PPG, but the bulk of those points allowed came in the loss to Auburn. DL Trey Flowers (22 tackles, 1 sack) is the top player and leader on this side of the ball and hopes his unit can contain the explosive Texas A&M offense.

The Aggies have been one of the best offenses in the nation this year, gaining 612.5 YPG (2nd in FBS), 405 YPG through the air (4th in nation) and 207.5 YPG on the ground (40th in FBS), which has led to 55.3 PPG (2nd in nation). QB Kenny Hill (1,359 pass yards, 13 TD, 1 INT) is filling some big shoes in this offense, and has been outstanding with 275+ yards in three of his four games while throwing multiple scores each time. His coming-out party was in South Carolina when he was 44-for-60 (73%) with 511 yards and 3 TD (0 INT).

There is no one rusher who really leads this team, as six players have already surpassed 15 attempts and 100 yards with HB Trey Williams (208 rush yards, 4 TD) leading the charge. Overall, the run game has provided 13 scores while averaging a strong 6.3 YPC. WR Malcome Kennedy (334 rec. yards, 1 TD) leads the team in yards and receptions (30) while WRs Josh Reynolds (247 rec. yards, 4 TD) and Ricky Seals-Jones (192 rec. yards, 3 TD) have been the top red-zone threats.

The defense has been very impressive while allowing 11.8 PPG (8th in nation) and giving up 349.5 YPG. DB Deshazor Everett (13 tackles, 1 INT) brings experience to this side of the ball, which is absent of any major talent.

MISSOURI TIGERS (3-1) at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (3-1)
Line & Total: South Carolina -5, Total: 62

Missouri kicks off its 2014 SEC season on Saturday night when it visits No. 13 South Carolina, which has already played three conference games.

Missouri started out the year in solid fashion with SU wins in its first three contests (2-1 ATS) before taking a tough 31-27 home loss last week against 14-point underdog Indiana. In their previous three games, the Tigers outscored their opponents by an average of 24.3 PPG, but could not get things going against the Hoosiers as they allowed 493 yards of offense and a game-winning TD run with 22 seconds left on the clock. The offense did perform well in the contest though, with 503 total yards (331 passing, 172 rushing), but had the sole turnover between the two programs.

South Carolina may be 3-1 SU, but has not been kind to bettors with a 1-3 ATS record with the one cover coming as a 6.5-point underdog in the 38-35 upset of Georgia two weeks ago. The Gamecocks have had a tough schedule as they faced Texas A&M in their season opener, losing 52-28 as 9.5-point favorites, and followed that game with a contest against a solid East Carolina team in which they won 33-23 while failing to cover the 14-point spread. Last week was a little reprieve from some of the better competition when they rallied to beat a Vanderbilt team by a score of 48-34 as big 23-point favorites. It took three fourth-quarter touchdowns to secure this victory, as the team gained 449 yards of total offense and went 7-for-12 in third-down conversions.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Tigers will be likely be without HB Morgan Steward (hip) who is doubtful, while WR Darius White (groin) is out. However, DL Markus Golden (hamstring) has been upgraded to probable for this SEC matchup. Meanwhile, South Carolina HB Brandon Wilds (shoulder) is listed as probable for Saturday night’s contest.

Missouri has a nice split between its passing (244.5 YPG) and rushing (185.5 YPG) while scoring 38 PPG (36th in nation). QB Maty Mauk (978 pass yards, 14 TD, 4 INT) has been leaned on heavily so far, and attempted a season-high 48 passes in last week’s loss to Indiana. He completed 29 of those throws for 331 yards while getting 2 TD with 1 INT. Overall he has hit on 62% of his passes for 7.8 YPA and has twice thrown for 325+ yards. Through four games, the quarterback also has 36 rushing attempts for 115 yards (3.2 YPC) and a touchdown.

Dominating in the ground attack has been HB Russell Hansbrough (377 rush yards, 3 TD), who has averaged 6.6 YPC and gone over the century mark twice; including 119 yards on just 100 attempts (11.9 YPC) and a touchdown last week versus the Hoosiers. WR Budd Sasser (368 rec. yards, 4 TD) has been the go-to guy through the air, while the void left behind from the absence of WR Darius White (230 rec. yards, 3 TD) should be filled by WR Jimmie Hunt (198 rec. yards, 5 TD) who leads the team with five touchdown grabs.

The defense did not do well in last week’s loss and has allowed 20.8 PPG to its opponents this year. DLs Shane Ray (22 tackles, 6 sacks) and Markus Golden (21 tackles, 4 sacks) bring a tough one-two punch that gives any offensive line headaches.

South Carolina has had no trouble getting things going through the air, as the club is averaging 285 YPG (35th in FBS) while scoring 36.8 PPG. QB Dylan Thompson (1,140 pass yards, 11 TD, 3 INT) has looked solid, and after throwing one interception in each of the first three weeks, was flawless in the win over Vandy, going 22-for-34 (65%) for 237 yards and 3 TD. He has had three or more touchdown passes in three of his four games played, and has added two rushing touchdowns, but is not much of a factor in the rushing attack otherwise.

He leaves those duties to HBs Mike Davis (264 rush yards, 2 TD) and Brandon Wilds (210 rush yards, 1 TD) who have a combined 4.8 YPC average. Davis has been the workhorse over the past three weeks, averaging 17.3 attempts per game, and had a season-high four receptions last week for 30 yards. WR Nick Jones (259 rec. yards, 3 TD) has been the big-play receiver at 15.2 yards per catch, but had only three receptions for 15 yards last week while WR Pharoh Cooper (244 rec. yards, 2 TD) leads the team with 21 receptions (11.6 avg) and had a breakout game last week when he grabbed 11 balls for 114 yards (11.4 avg) against Vanderbilt.

The defense has struggled against the potent opposition in the early going, ranking towards the bottom of the FBS in points allowed (36.0 PPG, 20th-worst in the nation), but hopes that LB Skai Moore (28 tackles, 1 sack) can help get the unit back on track this weekend.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five NCAAF bets so bad, we'd rather wager on their cheerleaders
By KEVIN CAUSEY

It’s pretty bad when your cheerleading squad is a lot more accomplished than the football team they’re rooting for.

If you’ve been wagering on college football recently, you know these programs have dropped the ball when it comes to you bets. Perhaps you’d be smarter putting your money on the sideline entertainment holding the pom-poms.

Here are five terrible NCAAF teams that you’d be better off betting on their cheerleaders:

Florida Gators (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Next game: -1 vs. Tennessee (Oct. 4)

The Gators are just 5-10 ATS going back to the 2013 season. Even with new offensive coordinator Kurt Roper, Florida continues to struggle to score points. While the offense may have fans heading to the turnstiles early, some are probably sticking around just to see their cheerleaders and dance squad, “The Dazzlers”. Something about those Sun Shine State girls.


Kentucky Wildcats (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Next game: -17 vs. Vanderbilt

If you are looking for winners, Kentucky has them. Unfortunately, it's not on the football field. In their last five conference games, the Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS. Don’t be deceived by UK’s 3-0 ATS start. It has a big problem following up on success. If the Wildcats notch an ATS win, they come out flat the next week, going just 4-12 in their last 16 games following an ATS win.

The same can’t be said about their cheerleading squad. Kentucky's cheerleading squad has won the Universal Cheerleaders Association National College Cheerleading Championship 20 times (yes, 20!), including taking home the title in 2014. Who said UK is only about basketball?



Miami Hurricanes (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Next game: -6.5 vs. Duke

The Hurricanes have improved under Al Golden but they haven't gotten back to the level that some thought they would. Over the last 12 games, the Canes are just 2-10 ATS and have gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight games ACC tilts.

Betting on their cheerleaders winning a poll for most attractive would seemingly be a much better bet than sinking your money into the Canes. There’s a surplus of good looking women in Coral Gables, not so much for football talent.


Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Next game: +8 vs. Rice

If you are looking for one of the worst teams in college football, look no further than Southern Miss. Not only did the Golden Eagles go 1-23 from 2012 to 2013, they were also terrible against the spread. Since 2012, they’re 8-20 ATS and have covered just 28.6 percent of the time.

Thank heavens for the cheerleaders. The Golden Eagles boast one of the best mid-major cheer squads in the land. But it still doesn’t make up for all that red ink when it comes to betting Southern Miss.


Texas Longhorns (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)

Next game: -12 at Kansas

Charlie Strong has taken over the reins in Austin and based on team attrition, it's going to get worse before it gets better. If there’s one thing the Longhorns can be counted on for, it's their underwhelming offense which ranks 109th in the country at 20.7 points per game. The Under is 6-1 in the Horns’ last seven conference games and also 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

While the Longhorns football team might struggle to even field a team at the end of the year, they actually have three cheerleading squads so if you have a choice on who to bet on, I'd take the cheerleaders. That’s three against one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 5 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 5 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

(1) Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack

- More distractions this week for the Seminoles, courtesy of quarterback Jameis Winston. The QB's attorney has claimed that the woman who accused the Heisman winner of rape demanded $7 million to settle her claim.

- The Wolfpack lead the ACC in total offense and they're led by a formidable three-headed monster out of the backfield. Three backs split the bulk of carries and are averaging at least 6.0 ypc (Shadrach Thornton 6.7, Matt Dayes 7.6, Tony Creecy 6.5).

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at (5) Auburn Tigers

- The Bulldogs will be relying heavily on QB Cody Sokol if they want to top Auburn. Through three games, the senior QB has 1,009 yards passing and 10 touchdowns.

- Though Auburn has what should be a win this week, coach Gus Malzahn is concerned about the future. "Louisiana Tech is on our mind, nobody else. But we understand we have an unbelievable challenging schedule. We've got to deal with it." Seven of Auburn's remaining nine games are against teams currently in the Top 25.

(6) Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones

- Baylor goes into its Big 12 opener ranked first in the nation in points (59.3) and total offense (654 yards per game). The Bears are 2-1 O/U.

- Jarvis West has been a Swiss army knife for the Cyclones leading the team in receptions, second in receiving yards and leads the nation in punt return yardage.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs (7) Texas A&M

- "[Arkansas is] going to make you defend the run and try to go over the top and get behind you with the deep balls and keep the chains moving with the intermediate passing game,” Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mark Snyder said. “It's no secret what we're going to see Saturday.”

- Texas A&M's defense is certainly staying out of the spotlight with Kenny Hill getting the headlines, but they have been a huge part of the Aggies' success. Texas A&M's defense has a 15.8 percent sack rate on passing downs, which is good for 10th in the nation.

(8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Syracuse Orange

- Five Fighting Irish players who were suspended due to an academic conduct investigation will soon have their hearing. All the players will miss the Syracuse game, but some could see the field soon for Notre Dame.

- Ashton Broyld will not be suited up for the Orange Saturday. Syracuse's leading receiver has 11 receptions and 125 yards receiving.

Wyoming Cowboys at (9) Michigan State Spartans

- Wyoming has won five-consecutive games when traveling east of the Mississippi, and has won six of its last eight games played east of the Mississippi, with the only two losses coming in double overtime at Syracuse and in single overtime at Virginia. Over the past 15 seasons, Wyoming has traveled east 12 times and has posted a 6-6 (.500) record in those 12 road games.

- The Spartans are one of two FBS teams (Alabama) to rank in the Top 10 in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense for the last three years.

Memphis Tigers at (11) Ole Miss Rebels

- Much has been made of the Tigers defense this year and the Ole Miss coaching staff has noticed. "I can count on my 10 fingers how many missed tackles I’ve seen [Memphis make]," Hugh Freeze said this week.

- Ole Miss is looking like a legitimate threat and that has a lot to do with QB Bo Wallace. The Senior is completing an astonishing 75.5 percent of his passes (tops in the nation) and a rating of 190.0 through three games.

Tennessee Volunteers at (13) Georgia Bulldogs

- The Vols could have a long day Saturday as stopping the run has not been their specialty this season. Tennessee has allowed an average of 129 yards rushing per games, with only Oklahoma being the only top competition they've played.

- Georgia will have last years game against the Vols on its mind Saturday. Though the Bulldogs edged out Tennessee by a field goal, several key injuries in that game caused the team to go 4-4 the rest of the season.

(14) Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies

- No team in the nation has been quite as good on the defensive side of the ball as Stanford. The Cardinals rank first in the nation in scoring defense, total defense and have not allowed a team to score 30 or more points in 26 straight games.

- Despite WR John Ross getting hurt last week, he is expected to dress and play this week. Ross has just six receptions through three games, but three of those have been touchdowns and he has averaged 33.7 yards per catch.

Missouri Tigers at (15) South Carolina Gamecocks

- Even though the Mizzou offensive line has been constantly changing, QB Maty Mauk seems fine. "I'm comfortable with any of those top eight, nine, or 10 guys. They're here for a reason, so they've got to put that extra work in this week, study some film, and know what their job is. They'll come out ready to go."

- Steve Spurrier has never been one to mince words and this week is no different. ''We do believe our players can play better on defense and on special teams and even offensively,'' Spurrier said.

South Florida Bulls at (17) Wisconsin Badgers

- If USF is hoping to pull off the upset, it will need better play from QB Mike White. The sophomore has completed an abysmal 39.3 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions on the season.

- QB Tanner McEvoy has only completed one pass of 20 or more yards to a WR this season and it's concerning coach Gary Anderson. "When you want to be who we are and run the ball, which has not changed, your inability to throw it down there a few times a game and take the top off the coverage, if you don't have that, it definitely is going to cause your offense to not be as effective as it could be," Andersen said.

New Mexico State Aggies at (18) LSU Tigers

- The Aggies owe a lot of their success this season to their stellar offensive line. The team has yet to allow a sack this season and have led the way for an average of 167 yards per game.

- There may be a QB controversy brewing for the Tigers. “I think Anthony Jennings will take the first snap,” LSU coach Les Miles told the media Wednesday. “Right now it looks pretty forthcoming, but, again, it could change.”

Illinois Fighting Illini at (19) Nebraska Cornhuskers

- Josh Ferguson blew up for Illinois last week with 190 yards rushing on 14 attempts and two touchdowns. And the junior back rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown against the Cornhuskers last season.

- The Cornhuskers will be without LB David Santos when they face the Illini. The injury means Nebraska will need to change its scheme defensively on nickel packages as Illinois has thrown the ball 158 times this season.

Cincinnati Bearcats at (20) Ohio State Buckeyes

- The Bearcats take the field with heavy hearts Saturday after freshmen redshirt RB Chamoda Kennedy-Palmore, a member of the UC scout team, was killed in a motorcycle accident Thursday night. There is a moment of silence planned for Saturday's game in Columbus.

-Yet another Buckeye freshman has been lost for the season. WR Johnnie Dixon will undergo season-ending surgery on both knees.

Oregon State Beavers at (22) USC Trojans

- Though the Beavers are entering Saturday undefeated, their opposition has not been stellar. Oregon State's opponents have a combined 3-8 record while allowing an average of 31 points per game.

- USC RB Buck Allen has taken the blame for the Trojans' loss to Boston College before their bye. "I feel like you can put it on me. I messed up or whatever, I'll take the blame. Live to see another day," Allen rushed for a mere 31 yards against the Eagles.

(23) Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes

- The Blue Devils will be without one of their starting defensive linemen for the second week in a row. Dezmond Johnson has been dealing with an unspecified leg injury and was officially ruled out against the Hurricanes this week.

- Despite fans pushing for the U to axe Mark D'Onofrio, the players are standing by their guy this week. “He probably is the best football mind. His football IQ is unbelievable, and he puts us in the right position to make plays. People just have to make them," DE Anthony Chickillo said.

Texas El Paso Miners at (25) Kansas State Wildcats

- Through three games the Miners have proven to be one of the more disciplined teams in the nation. Texas El Paso has only turned the ball over once and has only committed 12 penalties.

- Kansas State could have been one of the top ranked teams in the nation if they just converted in the red zone against Auburn last week. "We make those plays all the time," QB Jake Waters said. "Maybe sometimes it is my fault making passes down there when coach called a run, but I am still learning, and we all are still learning and getting better every single day."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN

With a good chunk of schedule behind us, college football bettors have a solid idea who they like and don’t like for Week 5 of the season. There are numerous sides and totals on the move, and we key in on the biggest adjustments for Saturday’s action.

John Avello, director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, gives some insight into why these odds are moving and where they’ll end up come kickoff:

Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers – Open: +13.5, Move: +8.5

This Big Ten battle has had its spread trimmed as many as five points since opening, with bettors not sold on the Hawkeyes offense - 22.2 points per game – or its chances of covering this pile of chalk against an old conference rival.

“This Iowa team doesn’t score a lot of points, that’s the main reason for the drop,” Avello . “Iowa’s not a killer teams and when you average only a few touchdowns, this is a lot of points to lay.”

Colorado State Rams at Boston College Eagles – Open: -2.5, Move: -9

It would seem the betting market has been convinced by the Eagles following their upset win against Southern Cal. Avello opened Boston College just under a field goal and has taken nothing but action on the home side.

“I understand the move past three, but I don’t know why it’s that drastic of a move,” he says. “You can look at the USC game and say, ‘Yeah you beat USC and they’re pretty good’. But I think USC isn't as good as some think.”

Avello doesn't think the Rams travel distance for this game will have much of an impact, with Colorado State enjoying a bye week in Week 4.

Western Michigan Mustangs at Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: -27.5, Move: 21

This non-conference clash has watched more than a touchdown come off its opening line, with bettors not sold on the Hokies. Virginia Tech is coming off back-to-back losses and has a ACC road trip to North Carolina coming next.

“I can’t blame players for this move, Virginia Tech has stalled,” says Avello. “If you beat Ohio State on the road, then come back home and lose two in a row, is this Western Michigan game really one you can get up for?”

Florida International Golden Panthers at UAB Blazers – Open: -11, Move: -17.5

The FIU Golden Panthers are coming off two games against major-conference competition – Pitt and Louisville – and now find themselves getting 17.5 points on the road against a Blazers squad that defeated Troy and gave Mississippi State a run for its money.

“You want to lay 17.5 points with UAB, go right ahead,” says Avello. “This is the kind of game where I can set a line and put it out, and then not know what to do with it.”

Kent State Golden Flashes at Virginia Cavaliers – Open: 21.5, Move: 28

Depending on where you play, this game may be off the board due to the unknown status of Virginia QB Greyson Lambert, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Avello currently has this game off the board, while online markets have pumped up this spread nearly a touchdown with action on the Cavs.

“Virginia is a bit of a surprises, they’re playing well,” says Avello. “But I don’t like putting up games unless I know (the status of Lambert). But so far, they’ve look good.”

Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: +27.5, Move: +19

This game has had a huge chunk of points shaved from its opening number, with money playing against the defending national champs. Avello looks back at FSU’s recent trips to Raleigh - 0-5-1 ATS last six in NC State – and also the Seminoles’ current form as explanation for this drastic move.

“This has become a lethargic FSU team, game after game,” he says. “If they want, they can make a statement this week and get the ball rolling. This was a team that was constantly scoring in the 50s last season but don’t seem to want it. They need a big game.”

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines – Open: -7, Move: -13

Football bettors are expecting Michigan to turn the corner – it seems like every week – but the Wolverines continue to fall short of expectations. Minnesota could also be without QB Mitch Leidner, who’s been slowed by turf toe early in the year.

“People think they’re (Michigan) due for a big game, but this team is in trouble,” says Avello. “Minnesota is a program that while they’ve lost to Michigan in the past, have been getting better. They always seem to hang around and Jerry Kill does a good job of getting them ready.”

Avello expects this line to come back down if Leidner is active.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange – Open: +14, Move: +9

Depending on where you bet, this game has moved off a key number and past another to land on Notre Dame -9 for this neutral-site game inside MetLife Stadium. Avello expects this spread to come back up once the public comes in on the popular Fighting Irish Saturday, but says it might not be all tourist action moving that line.

“Notre Dame seems like they can get the job done,” he says, “This could go back up to 11 or 11.5. And it’s not just the tourists, but the sharps. We see a lot of movement Friday nights and Saturday mornings.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auburn remaining focused despite tough schedule
Stephen Campbell

Auburn will face a lot of challenges schedule-wise this season, as seven of the Tigers' remaining nine games are against teams ranked in the Top 25. That's not phasing their head coach Gus Malzahn, however.

"We play a very tough schedule, probably the toughest schedule in college football," Malzahn said. "Louisiana Tech is on our mind, nobody else."

Auburn is coming off of a 20-14 victory over Kansas State, but will need a better effort for the rest of the campaign.

"We have to figure out how to get better," the coach said. "We didn't play our best, but we won. That's the bottom line. Our guys understand that. Our coaches understand that. But when you don't play your best against a Top 20 team, that's a positive thing.

Auburn is currently -32.5 faves with a total of 62 for the matchup versus Louisiana Tech Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trend shows Wyoming dominating east of Mississippi
Stephen Campbell

Wyoming University has a track record of performing well east of the Mississippi River.

The Cowboys have won five-consecutive games when visiting opponents east of the river, as well as six of their last eight. Wyoming faces a team ranked in the top 10 - No. 9 Michigan State - for the second time this season, and another affair on the opposite side of the infamous river.

Michigan State is currently -27.5 home faves with a total of 48.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tennessee struggling to stop the run, face Gurley
Stephen Campbell

The Tennessee Volunteers have had all kinds of problems stopping the run so far in the young college football season, and things won't be getting any easier Saturday.

The Vols will travel to Athens, GA for a date with star runningback Todd Gurley and his Georgia Bulldogs in Week 5 action. Tennessee has allowed an average of 129 yards rushing/game, with Oklahoma being the only top competition they've faced.

Gurley has 402 yards rushing, four touchdowns and an average of 9.8 yards/carry through three games.

Georgia is presently listed as 17.5-point faves with an Over/Under of 57.5.