Saturday 9/19/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mariners (72-76) at Rangers (79-68)

Game: 2
Venue: Globe Life Park in Arlington
Date: September 19, 2015 8:05 PM EDT

Cole Hamels hasn't exactly been lights out for the Texas Rangers, but his presence in the rotation seems to have made an impact in their run to the top of the AL West.

The Rangers seek their seventh straight win with the left-hander on the mound Saturday night when they try to deny the Seattle Mariners their longest road streak in over a decade.

Texas had a 47-52 record and 4.54 ERA entering play July 29, when reports began flooding in that the club had agreed to a deal with Philadelphia for Hamels. The Rangers have since run off the AL's second-best record at 32-16 while posting a 3.68 ERA.

They swept a four-game series from Houston this week to take over the division lead, but had their five-game winning streak snapped in a series-opening 3-1 loss in Arlington. Texas maintained its 2 1/2-game advantage when the Astros lost to Oakland.

"This was not a situation where there was a letdown," manager Jeff Banister told MLB's official website.

Hamels (3-1, 4.04 ERA) will try to help the Rangers (79-68) get back on track after going 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA while leading them to six straight wins since a 4-3 loss at Seattle (72-76) on Aug. 7. He's also lasted at least seven innings in his last four starts.

The 31-year-old has become familiar with the Mariners in his short time with Texas. He's facing them for a fourth time already after going 1-1 with a 4.95 ERA in the previous three meetings.

Most recently, Hamels gave up four runs over seven innings in a 9-6 road win Sept. 8. Mark Trumbo is 4 for 9 with a home run off him and Robinson Cano's only hit in nine at-bats left the park.

Ketel Marte went 2 for 4 with two RBIs and Kyle Seager was 2 for 4 with an RBI on Friday when the Mariners were held to three runs or less for the fifth time in seven games. Marte has three straight two-hit games, while Seager is 20 for 40 with four homers and 13 RBIs over a 10-game road hitting streak.

"It's always fun to win, no matter what," Tom Wilhelmsen said after recording his 12th straight save. "That's what we all want to do. That's what we've been trying to do the whole time."

Just 10 days after dominating the Rangers, Vidal Nuno (1-2, 3.21) looks to lead Seattle to its first seven-game road winning streak since a franchise-record 13-game run in 2003. He allowed one hit with a career-high 10 strikeouts over seven innings in a 6-0 home win Sept. 9.

Nuno, however, is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA while giving up seven home runs in his three away starts.

The left-hander faces an offense that had hit .339 and averaged 9.0 runs during its win streak before finishing with six hits and going 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position in the opener.

Prince Fielder walked with the bases loaded in the fifth inning to end a 22-inning scoreless streak against the Mariners, who have won 11 of 17 in the season series. Josh Hamilton struck out as a pinch-hitter a week after having surgery on his left knee.

Shin-soo Choo stayed hot with three hits, leaving him 10 for 13 over his last three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Padres (69-79) at Rockies (62-85)

Game: 2
Venue: Coors Field
Date: September 19, 2015 8:10 PM EDT

Robbie Erlin's last appearance on a major league mound came in the 2014 season finale.

The San Diego Padres have played 148 games in 2015, and Erlin's outing remains the last time they've handed the ball to a left-handed starter.

That'll change Saturday night when Erlin makes his season debut in Denver against the Colorado Rockies, who coincidentally have had their problems against lefties.

Erlin made 20 starts and four relief appearances for the Padres (69-79) over the previous two seasons, going 7-8 with a 4.58 ERA. He made the opening-day roster in 2014, missed nearly four months with an elbow injury suffered last May and made four starts after returning, the last of which he threw just 1 2-3 innings in a loss to San Francisco.

Since then, Erlin has spent his time in the minors and battled shoulder soreness earlier this season. San Diego plans to use him in the rotation for the rest of 2015 after he pitched a seven-inning, complete-game shutout Sept. 5 at Reno his last minor league outing.

"I'm just happy to be back and hope to make the most of the experience and the time here," Erlin, who had a 5.60 ERA in 24 starts for the Chihuahuas, told MLB's official website.

Now Erlin has to contend with a Rockies lineup that features Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez, who have the second- and third-most homers in the NL, respectively.

Neither homered Friday, but Arenado went 3 for 4, drove in a run and scored twice as Colorado (62-85) beat the Padres 7-4. Arenado is batting .365 with nine of his 39 homers in 18 games this month, and the third baseman also made a nifty play in the field when he bare-handed a bunt and fired to first for the out.

'(He) changes the game with his defense virtually every night," manager Walt Weiss said. "That doesn't seem to carry any weight in MVP voting - don't know why.'

Arenado is hitting .390 with six homers and a 1.139 OPS in 15 games against the Padres this season.

'I'd probably vote for him (for MVP),' San Diego interim manager Pat Murphy said.

The Rockies, though, are just 8-28 when their opponent starts a left-hander. Gonzalez is batting .181 with four of his 37 homers against lefties this season compared to having a .294 average against right-handers.

The Padres (.243) haven't hit much better off lefties than Colorado (.242), which counters with a left-hander of its own in Yohan Flande (3-3, 4.95 ERA).

Flande, though, hasn't recorded an out beyond the fifth in any of his last four starts while walking 11 in 18 innings. He's especially struggled over his last two, giving up six runs in a 7-4 loss to San Francisco on Sept. 6 and four in last Saturday's 7-2 defeat at Seattle.

He's had his issues against San Diego as well, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA in three starts. Flande allowed four runs in six innings of a 9-5 loss when he last faced the Padres on Aug. 14.

Matt Kemp is 4 for 6 with a homer off Flande, but he went hitless in four at-bats Friday and is 2 for 23 over his last six.

The Padres have lost six of their last eight, a stretch that began with a home loss to the Rockies on Sept. 10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pirates (87-60) at Dodgers (85-61)

Game: 2
Venue: Dodger Stadium
Date: September 19, 2015 9:10 PM EDT

The only non-quality start Clayton Kershaw has recorded while going undefeated over the last two-plus months came against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Having rebounded nicely from that early August effort, the left-hander tries to win a season-high fifth straight start Saturday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers look to hand the visiting Pirates a fifth consecutive defeat.

Though Kershaw (14-6, 2.12 ERA) might not be the top NL Cy Young candidate on his own team, he's 9-0 with an 0.98 ERA in 13 starts since losing at Miami on June 27.

'He throws his pitches exactly where he wants to, throws balls in the dirt when he needs to so he can get people to chase. It's really good stuff,' rookie teammate Corey Seager said after Kershaw gave up a run and three hits in seven innings of Monday's 4-1 victory over Colorado.

"It's been fun to watch."

Kershaw didn't have much fun Aug. 7 when he gave up four runs and nine hits in six innings of a 5-4, 10-inning loss at Pittsburgh (87-60). However, he's yielded seven runs over 54 innings since, and now faces a Pirates club that's totaled 11 runs in the last four and is only one game ahead of the Chicago Cubs for the top wild-card spot in the NL.

Major league ERA leader Zack Greinke allowed two runs over seven-plus innings and had two hits as Los Angeles (85-61) snapped a five-game skid to the Pirates with Friday's 6-2 victory. The NL West-leading Dodgers have won 18 of the last 23 and 21 of 27 at home, where they've recorded 50 victories for the third time since 1980.

'It's exciting. It's crunch-time. You can kind of feel it in the air,' said Seager, batting .412 with two homers and 10 RBIs in 14 career games.

Out since Aug. 10 with a hamstring injury, second baseman Howie Kendrick could be in the Los Angeles lineup for this contest. Though he's expected to split time with Chase Utley, Kendrick is 9 for 19 with a home run, a triple and two doubles against Francisco Liriano (10-7, 3.45).

"We're not going to just throw him out there every day," manager Don Mattingly told MLB's official website. "I know we do want to be careful getting him back in there and not play him four or five days in a row."

Liriano has a 2.73 ERA while winning four of his last five road starts but needs to get back on track after he gave up five runs and seven hits in 2 1-3 innings of a 7-6, 11-inning home victory over Milwaukee on Sunday. The left-hander's 167 innings pitched this season are already the second-most of his career, thus his start following this one will be pushed back to Sept. 26 against the Cubs.

"We wanted to give him a little bit of a break," manager Clint Hurdle said. "I think he feels very good about it and is ready to take advantage of it, then get back on the mound."

Though Liriano allowed four runs and seven hits in three innings of a 6-5 win over Los Angeles on Aug. 8, he's 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers.

Andrew McCutchen is 2 for 13 with five strikeouts in his last three games, but is batting .381 with a homer in 21 at-bats off Kershaw.

Teammate Chris Stewart had two hits Friday and could be behind the plate again considering he's 7 for 14 with a homer against Kershaw.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Royals bump Duffy from rotation
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

CLEVELAND -- Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost waited as long as he could, but he finally reached the point where he had to make a decision. So on Thursday, Yost announced that struggling left-hander Danny Duffy was being moved out of the starting rotation and into the bullpen.

"The production wasn't there as a starter right now," Yost said.

In 24 starts this season Duffy is 7-8 with a 4.35 ERA, but he has really struggled recently. In his last four starts Duffy was 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA. In his last start, Wednesday, a 5-1 loss in Cleveland, Duffy gave up four runs on six hits in 2 1/3 innings.

The Royals still had a comfortable 10-game lead in the AL Central at the start of play Thursday night, but Yost is already looking ahead to the postseason, and he wants to get his rotation lined up. Jeremy Guthrie will come out of the bullpen to replace Duffy in the rotation. But the Royals' Big Four will be Johnny Cueto, Yordano Ventura, Edinson Volquez, and Kris Medlen.

"We need four consistent starters in the postseason and the other four were out-performing Danny," Yost said. "We need to see if he can be productive out of the 'pen, and we think he can. We knew if we were going to do this with Danny we better go ahead and do it to give him as much time as he can to get acclimated down there."

Yost said Duffy's stuff is fine, but he wasn't commanding it, and that led to high pitch counts early in games. "He was unable to get us much past the fifth inning and you can't afford that," Yost said. "You've got to have guys who go out and get you deep into games and preserve your bullpen as much as you can."

Guthrie, who relieved Duffy on Wednesday and pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing one run, will get three starts before the end of the regular season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, September 19, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

I start writing these preview stories around 11 a.m. ET so they are ready to go when the opening next-day odds, usually no later than 1 p.m. ET. On Thursday when previewing Friday's games, I happened to be watching Cubs at Pirates while waiting on odds and mentioned in that story it looked like excellent Pittsburgh rookie shortstop Jung Ho Kang had suffered a major knee/leg injury while being taken out on a slide at second base in the MLB Network game. And it turns out I was right. Kang both tore a meniscus and broke his tibia on the play, which even Kang's agent said was a clean baseball play by the Cubs' Chris Coghlan. News1, a Korean news organization, described Coghlan's slide as a "murderous tackle." Kang is going to miss 6-8 months, which obviously puts the start of next season in jeopardy. Kang, the first position player to directly make the jump from the Korean Baseball Organization to the majors, hit .287 with 15 home runs and 58 RBIs in 126 games for Pittsburgh. Tough loss.


Yankees at Mets (-108, 7)

Of course this game is on national TV -- Fox -- so it will have live betting at sportsbooks. Just want to remind you again that Alex Rodriguez will only be available as a pinch-hitter with no DH in play at Citi Field. That should factor into your total betting all series. The Yankees start Michael Pineda (10-8, 4.25). He has been hurt so often that Pineda might be hitting a wall as he has pitched 139.2 innings. He has allowed at least four runs in five of his past six outings. He beat the Mets on April 24, holding them to a run on five hits over 7 2/3 innings. Mets rookie Noah Syndergaard (8-6, 3.20) held the Braves to a run on two hits last time out -- his previous start had been skipped to conserve innings. He hasn't faced the Yanks.

Key trends: The Yankees are 1-4 in Pineda's past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 7-0 in Syndergaard's past seven at home. The "over/under" is 9-3 in Pineda's past 12 on the road. The over is 7-0 in Syndergaard's past seven overall.

Early lean: Mets and under.


Mariners at Rangers (-220, 9)

I am at a loss for words regarding the Texas Rangers. I can't believe they just swept four games from Houston and had a 2.5-game lead in the AL West entering Friday's action. Stunned. This has the potential to be a letdown series, however. But Rangers ace Cole Hamels (9-8, 3.76) is on the mound for Saturday's Game 2. Hamels has allowed at least three runs in six of his eight starts for the Rangers; he did so only seven times in 20 starts for Philadelphia before the trade. To be fair, pitching in the AL is tougher. Hamels is 1-1 with a 4.95 ERA in three starts vs. Seattle this year. Logan Morrison is 11-for-28 career off him with four doubles. Mariners lefty Vidal Nuno (1-2, 3.21) snapped a 20-start winless streak in his last start on Sept. 9 vs. these Rangers, shutting them out on one hit over seven innings. Nuno has pitched two-thirds of an inning of relief since then.

Key trends: The Mariners are 5-1 in their past six vs. lefties. Texas has won six straight Hamels starts. The under is 4-0 in the Rangers' past four on Saturday.

Early lean: Rangers and over.


A's at Astros (-137, 7.5)

Houston is in a free-fall and in danger of not just failing to win a division it has led the vast majority of the season but missing the playoffs entirely. The Astros are a different team at home, however, with the most home victories in the AL. Lefty Scott Kazmir (7-10, 2.63) starts here. He hasn't been quite as sharp lately as Houston has dropped his past four. Kazmir came over from Oakland at the trade deadline. He allowed four runs in Oakland on Sept. 8. A's ace Sonny Gray (13-7, 2.56) had his worst start of the season last time out, allowing seven runs and eight hits in three innings vs. the White Sox. It was the first time in 2015 he didn't go at least five innings. He is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA this year against Houston.

Key trends: The Astros are 3-12 in their past 15 on Saturday and have lost five straight in Game 2 of a series. The under is 12-3 in Oakland's past 15 on Saturday. The under is 7-2-1 in Kazmir's past 10 overall.

Early lean: Astros and under.


Diamondbacks at Giants (-135, 7.5)

I wouldn't touch San Francisco much the rest of the season. About half the Giants' starting lineup is out injured and/or shut down for the season. The white flag has been waived. Arizona has to be pleased how lefty ace Patrick Corbin (5-4, 3.29) has pitched this year after missing all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery. He should only be better in 2016. Corbin is 1-1 with a 1.64 ERA this year in two starts vs. San Francisco. Buster Posey, a rare regular still playing, is 9-for-25 off him with two doubles. The Giants' Mike Leake (10-8, 3.72) has been up-and-down since coming over from Cincinnati at the deadline. He pitched in Arizona on Sept. 7 and was rocked for six runs and 11 hits in 5.2 innings. Paul Goldschmidt is just 2-for-18 career off him.

Key trends: The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in Corbin's past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The Giants are 1-8 in their past nine vs. a lefty. The over is 4-1 in Corbin's past five on the road. The under is 4-1 in Corbin's past five vs. the Giants.

Early lean: Diamondbacks and under.


Pirates at Dodgers (-200, 6)

Jordy Mercer will take over as the everyday shortstop for Pittsburgh. My question is this: Do the Pirates bring about some sort of retribution on the Cubs when they visit Wrigley Field next weekend? Even Kang absolved Coghlan, but this seems to be one of those unwritten rules that you have to do something to stand up for your teammate. This injury also might put the Pirates in a mini-funk. They had to deal with Zack Greinke on Friday night in the series opener and here it's Clayton Kershaw (14-6, 2.12). He has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his past six outings. His last shaky start was Aug. 7 in Pittsburgh when Kershaw allowed four runs in six innings. Andrew McCutchen is 8-for-21 with a homer off him. Mercer is 0-for-3. Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano (10-7, 3.45) struggled last time out, lasting only 2.1 innings vs. Milwaukee. He is 3-0 lifetime against the Dodgers but hasn't faced them in 2015.

Key trends: The Pirates are 7-0 in Liriano's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The Dodgers are 7-2 in their past nine vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in Liriano's past five on the road.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- Mike Olt is only player in baseball history to homer for the Cubs and White Sox in the same season.

-- SF Giant centerfielders have three HRs this year; Giant pitchers have nine.

-- 94 of 146 Cincinnati games this season have been started by rookie pitchers.

-- Four Missouri football players were injured in a car accident Friday; two are still in the hospital, two were released with minor injuries.

-- Pirates lost SS Jung Ho Kang for the season Thursday; tough loss for them.

-- Five of the last six college football national champs were using a starting QB who was in his first season as the starter.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Odds: Line Movements & Last-Minute News for Week 3
by Alan Matthews

I live in the South, but I am not an SEC fan. I think SEC coaches and fans are incredibly arrogant -- often with good reason, sadly, because it's the best conference in college football. But sometimes it's overrated. I believe that was the case last season -- just look at the SEC West's bowl results -- and is again in 2015. Last week was not a good one for the SEC.

The worst loss was easily former No. 18 Arkansas falling at home to MAC school Toledo 16-12. And to think Hogs coach Bret Bielema had the audacity to criticize the nonconference schedule of Ohio State. Ex-No. 6 Auburn should have lost at home to FCS school Jacksonville State but got incredibly fortunate. Former No. 23 Tennessee blew a 17-point home lead and was beaten by Oklahoma. Florida squeaked by East Carolina and No. 22 Missouri did the same against Arkansas State. Ladies and gentlemen, the Pac-12 is the nation's best conference right now.

Here's some news, notes and any line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

No. 14 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Notre Dame (+2.5): This line has grown a point, and if you read my Opening Line Report on Monday you likely know why: the Irish lost starting quarterback Malik Zaire to a season-ending injury last week against Virginia and will give DeShone Kizer his first career start. For what it's worth, the last four Irish QBs making their first career start have won it. The Irish are home dogs for only the fifth time this decade. They are 3-1 SU and against the spread in the previous four.

Troy at No. 24 Wisconsin (-34.5): This line has dropped a point even though on some sites UW is taking the biggest lean on the board at about 80 percent. That surprises me a bit because it appears Badgers star running back Corey Clement is not going to play. Clement aggravated a left-groin injury in the season opener against Alabama. He played sparingly in the 35-17 loss to the Crimson Tide on Sept. 5, rushing eight times for 16 yards and catching two passes for 19 yards. Clement sat out last week's 58-0 win over Miami (Ohio). Dare Ogunbowale and Taiwan Deal combined for 30 of the 41 carries by running backs last week, but the attack didn't do much in the first half until wearing Miami down after intermission. Troy is better than Miami.

Georgia State at No 12 Oregon (-43.5): This line has dropped from an opening of 46. Here's another game where it's not like who wins is in question but whether the heavily-favored ranked team will cover. So why the drop despite the Ducks taking a solid lean? It's because Oregon starting quarterback Vernon Adams is a game-time call with a broken finger suffered in the season opener against Eastern Washington. He reinjured it in last Saturday's loss at Michigan State. If I'm Oregon, no way I play Adams. Let him get a week of rest and go with Jeff Lockie. The Ducks open Pac-12 play with a challenge next week against No. 21 Utah. Speaking of ..

No. 21 Utah at Fresno State (+14): This line didn't generally open until late Wednesday and has dropped from 15.5. The question here is whether Utes starting QB Travis Wilson will play. He sprained his non-throwing shoulder in last week's 24-14 win over Utah State. His backup is Kendal Thompson. He has made eight career appearances for the Utes, starting twice. In relief of Wilson vs. Utah State, Thompson was 8-for-10 for 56 yards and rushed for 23 yards and a TD. Last year the Utes beat visiting Fresno 59-27 behind a career-high five TD passes from Wilson.

No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 2 Alabama (-6.5): This line has stayed pretty steady, although it's at 7 at some sportsbooks. I am definitely not going to make a habit of listing offensive linemen who may be out for games this season, but the best one in the country is Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil. The likely Top 5 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft hasn't played yet this season as the NCAA investigates an eligibility issue and won't here. The Rebels haven't missed him yet as they have been the country's most impressive offensive team thus far, but that was against UT Martin and Fresno State. Alabama is a bit better and maybe has the best defensive front in college football. Not having Tunsil will matter here.

Florida at Kentucky (+3.5): Is this the year? Kentucky improved to 2-0 with its first road win since 2010 (first SEC road win since 2009) in a 26-22 victory at South Carolina last week. However, UK has dropped 28 straight to the Gators. UF coach Jim McElwain has decided to start redshirt freshman Will Grier at quarterback for the second straight game. Grier has completed 26 of 35 passes for 317 yards and four scores. He also has an interception and a fumble. No doubt Treon Harris will also play. I actually think UK does end the streak -- it should have last season but lost in triple overtime.

Rutgers at Penn State (-9): This line has risen as much as 1.5 points. How much does a coach matter? We will find out at Rutgers as coach Kyle Flood has been suspended three games. That program is a mess with player arrests and Flood contacting a faculty member about a player's academic status and trying to get a grade changed. Associate head coach Norries Wilson will serve as interim coach during Flood's suspension, although Flood can conduct practices. Also, Rutgers indefinitely suspended All-Big Ten wide receiver Leonte Carroo earlier this week after Carroo was charged with simple assault in a domestic violence incident from last weekend. He has seven catches for 181 yards and three scores.

South Florida at Maryland (-7): This number opened at 8.5. The drop is probably due to the fact that the Terps have demoted former starting QB Perry Hills, a surprise winner of the job in camp, to No. 3, following last week's embarrassing 48-27 home loss to MAC school Bowling Green (I'm sure that loss also affected line). Randy Edsall is going to start redshirt junior QB Caleb Rowe for this game. Not that Rowe has been good in his two spot appearances this year. He was 0-for-1 against Richmond and 1-for-3 - with two interceptions - against Bowling Green. Rowe was considered the favorite to be Maryland's opening game starter before Hills won the job.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

(117) CHARLOTTE @ (118) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 7:00 PM

Take: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -20.5

The newest member of the FBS makes its conference debut today as Charlotte heads to Murfreesboro for a duel with Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers have gotten out of the gate nicely with what was deemed a mild upset win at Georgia State, and they followed that up by coasting to an easy win last week against Presbyterian. Things figure to get more difficult for Charlotte tonight.

I happened to land on Charlotte in that season opener, going against the money, which was pretty heavily on Georgia State. That worked out nicely as the favorite played horribly early on and by the time they got it together, the deficit could not be overcome and Charlotte ended up with the outright win. But I also somewhat made up my mind that I would likely be looking for a spot to go against the 49ers in short order, and I’ll be doing so here.

Make no mistake, this is absolutely huge stuff for Charlotte. Their head coach, Brad Lambert, says they’ve been preparing for this game for two years, as it’s their first ever CUSA game. The 49ers have done some things well in garnering two straight wins, and it’s possible I’m now selling them short. But I think they’re a candidate to get run over tonight at MTSU.

The problem for the road team, as I see it, will be on defense. True enough, they had injury issues last season on the stop unit. But Charlotte’s defensive data from last season is pretty ugly. Among 122 FCS teams, Charlotte was 113th in yards allowed per game. Note that’s FCS, not FBS. Injuries or not, that’s pretty bad. The 49ers have a new defensive coordinator this season and are going with multiple schemes. But I keep looking at those defensive numbers at a lower level last season, and Charlotte is going to have to prove to me they can handle a step up in class better.

I like what I’m seeing so far from MTSU. Veteran coach Rick Stockstill has his son Brent now starting at QB and he’s already showing some savvy under center. The Blue Raiders didn’t do much with the football last week at Alabama, but they weren’t supposed to. Middle Tennessee should find the path down the field much easier to navigate tonight.

A key as far as whether or not tonight’s game gets lopsided will be the Charlotte offense against the Middle Tennessee defense. The 49ers use a two-QB system, and MTSU will have to be ready for the different styles of play they’re going to see. Matt Johnson is the conventional QB. Freshman Brooks Barden is a lefty who likes to take off and run. Johnson and Barden are each seeing lots of action, and in fact, there has even been some alternating of the two QB’s on the same series of downs.

Middle Tennessee certainly seems to be taking this game seriously. If there’s a hangover from the more exciting challenge against Alabama, it isn’t showing and all reports are that the team has looked crisp at practice this week. I like this team’s defense, which is a veteran unit that also got much bigger physically in the off-season.

This likely all comes down to whether the gaudy defensive stats registered in the first two games by the Charlotte stoppers are real or not. The 49ers currently lead the league in several defensive categories. But I’m currently inclined to believe that’s a mirage and that reality sets in tonight as Charlotte steps up in class.

The number is obviously a hurdle here, and it’s worth mentioning that MTSU could have been purchased at a bit of a discount earlier in the week. But I also don’t mind that there seems to be some support for the dog as far as ticket count is concerned, yet the line has gone up. My sources indicated that some sharp money dropped on the favorite and I’m going that way as well. I’ll look for Middle Tennessee State to win convincingly enough to cover the substantial impost.