Saturday 9/19/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Illini defense riding high with North Carolina test ahead


CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) For much of the past three seasons, defense was almost a dirty word at Illinois. The Illini were at the back of the Big Ten in almost every category.

Two games is a small sample, but so far this season Illinois has given up just a field goal and picked off five passes - close to the seven they intercepted all of last season.

Illini coaches and players said Monday they aren't kidding themselves. Saturday's road trip to North Carolina (1-1) will be a test of a different sort than Kent State or Football Championship Subdivision school Western Illinois.

''This week here, it's going to be tested because it's been fairly easy the first two games,'' interim Illinois coach Bill Cubit said. ''It hasn't been easy to accomplish, but nothing's really gone against us.''

Tar Heels coach Larry Fedora said he's been impressed by Illinois' defensive performance.

''Defensively they haven't given up a touchdown this year,'' he said Monday. ''So they're going to come in here sky high and feeling good about themselves, as they should.''

A look at the details behind Illinois' eight quarters of near-scoreless defensive football offers a long list of superlatives:

- No Big Ten team has allowed fewer points over the first two weeks. Northwestern is the only team that's close, giving up six points in wins over Stanford and another FCS school, Eastern Illinois.

- The five Illinois interceptions are just two short of last season's seven (which was 11th in the 14-team Big Ten). And six turnovers put the Illini almost a third of the way to last season's total of 19 (eighth in the conference).

- Red zone defense may be the most telling - the Illini haven't had to play much of it. Kent State moved the ball to the Illinois 5-yard line late in the second quarter before settling for a field goal attempt that Illinois blocked.

- Illinois' first two opponents have averaged 193 yards of offense a game. That's second in the Big Ten for a defense that last season was dead last at 456 a game. And the Illini have been tough to run on so far, giving up 78.5 yards a game. Last season, they were last in the conference at 239.2 yards a game.

Illinois added Mike Phair as a co-defensive coordinator alongside Tim Banks in the offseason, and defensive players including defensive end Jihad Ward talked over the summer about a change in approach, playing more aggressive and thinking less.

Linebacker T.J. Neal said Monday that he and others are taking that simpler approach to the game, but he insisted that as far as scheme goes, this season's team isn't very different than last season's.

''It's the same stuff coach Banks has been doing the past three or four years,'' he said.

Cubit said Monday that the pair of relatively easy wins has allowed his defense to use its bench, getting many starters off the field early to avoid injuries and fatigue. But it also means that Illinois' defense hasn't had to stay on the field for an extended run of fast-paced plays like North Carolina is likely to throw at the Illini.

''Really, our (starting) defense hasn't played a whole game,'' he said. ''This week they played like a little more than a half.''

Neal believes Illinois is ready for the step up in pace and competition.

''The first two games were great, but I think this one will let everyone know the Fighting Illini's not playing this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SEC, Auburn tumble in AP poll

Three Southeastern Conference teams fell out of the AP Top 25 and Auburn dropped 12 spots Sunday after the league that set a record for most teams in the college football rankings last week had a rough weekend.

Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi State all dropped out after losses Saturday. The Tigers needed overtime to beat Jacksonville State of the FCS and slipped from No. 6 to No. 18.

The SEC was down to seven ranked teams, still the most of any conference.

Ohio State remains No. 1, but the Buckeyes are no longer unanimous. No. 4 Michigan State received two first-place votes from the media panel after beating Oregon 31-28. Alabama remains No. 2. TCU is 3.

No. 19 BYU jumped into the rankings after beating Boise State and knocking out the Broncos. The Cougars were ranked for four weeks early last season before star QB Taysom Hill was injured. Hill went down again in the season opener at Nebraska, but Tanner Mangum has led BYU to two straight victories with late long touchdown pass.

---

POLL POINTS

UP AND DOWN

- Oklahoma moved up three spots to No. 16 after coming from 17-0 down to win at Tennessee, 31-24 in double overtime.

- Oregon dropped five spots to No. 12 after its loss at Michigan State.

IN

Also, moving into the rankings this week were No. 23 Northwestern, No. 24 Wisconsin and No. 25 Oklahoma State.

- The Wildcats are ranked for the first time since October 2013.

- The Badgers moved back in after a 58-0 victory against Miami, Ohio. They fell out after the first week of the regular season, when they lost to Alabama.

- The Cowboys are back in the rankings for the first time since falling out last October.

CONFERENCE CALL

Breakdown of ranked teams by conference

SEC - 7

Pac-12 - 5

Big 12 - 4

Big Ten 4

ACC - 3

Independent - 2

RANKED VS. RANKED

No. 15 Mississippi at No. 2 Alabama. The Rebels beat the Crimson Tide in Oxford, Mississippi, last season

No. 14 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets and quarterback Justin Thomas have put up more than 60 points in each of their first two games. The Irish will find out of DeShone Kizer can follow up his amazing debut off the bench as the starting replacement for injured quarterback Malik Zaire.

No. 18 Auburn at No. 13 LSU. The Tigers from Alabama get one more chance to prove they belong in the rankings.

No. 19 BYU at No. 10 UCLA. The comeback Cougars continue college football's toughest September schedule.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Oklahoma State got very little support as No. 25 with only 48 points. Not far behind in others receiving votes were Temple (38) and West Virginia (37).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oregon quarterback Adams confirms broken finger

Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. confirmed that he has a broken finger and says it's a game-time decision whether he'll start Saturday against Georgia State.

Vernon told reporters Wednesday that he broke his right index finger in the season opener. It was bothering him in the Ducks' 31-28 loss at now-No. 4 Michigan State last weekend.

Jeff Lockie, Marcus Mariota's backup last season for the Ducks, will start against the Panthers if Adams cannot go.

''I can definitely play with it throughout the season. I played with it this past game, you know,'' Adams said. ''I just gotta keep rehabbing it, keep icing it, make sure the swelling's going down and hopefully it gets to 100 percent as soon as possible.''

Adams' comments ended speculation that had been swirling since before the game against the Spartans. Oregon's coaches do not discuss injuries as a policy.

Adams finished with 309 yards passing against Michigan State, but wore gloves and was seen examining the finger on the sideline during the game. Afterward, the finger was wrapped in a splint.

The No. 12 Ducks (1-1) rallied late with Adams' 15-yard touchdown pass to Byron Marshall with 3:25 remaining. Oregon drove to the Spartans' 33 on its next drive, but Adams overthrew Marshall before he was sacked for a loss of 10, and his pass on fourth-and-16 was incomplete.

''I didn't really feel it during the game. I got a cortisone shot and I couldn't feel it. It felt like I was throwing with four fingers,'' Adams said. ''I got it hit one time in the second half and that's when I started feeling it again.''

Adams said he injured the finger in Oregon's opener, a 61-42 victory over his former school, Eastern Washington. The Eagles' quarterback for the past three seasons transferred to Oregon for his final year of eligibility.

He performed well in his Oregon debut, throwing for 246 yards and two touchdowns before he left the game in the fourth quarter after a scary late hit that left him wobbly. He briefly went to the locker room, but later returned to watch the end of the game from the sideline.

Adams, who arrived in fall camp late because he had to finish a final math class to complete his degree at Eastern Washington, was named Oregon's starter before the opener. Both he and Lockie were vying to take over the job after Mariota's departure for the NFL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arkansas searching for answers to struggling rushing attack


FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. (AP) Bret Bielema has made a career out of coaching teams that have the ability to run the ball effectively, even against opponents who know what is coming.

After a stunning 16-12 loss to Toledo that marked the second consecutive game with a lackluster rushing attack, the Arkansas coach hopes to kick start his Razorbacks this week against Texas Tech.

Arkansas (1-1) averaged 218 rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry last season, and it was the only major college football program to produce a pair of 1,000-yard running backs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins.

With Williams out for likely the entire season, and a reshuffled offensive line struggling to find its chemistry, the Razorbacks enter the game against the Red Raiders (2-0) 11th in the Southeastern Conference with an average of 142.5 yards rushing per game.

They are also gaining only 4.4 yards per carry, a stark drop when considering their first two opponents came from Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference - not the mighty Southeastern Conference defenses coming up following this weekend.

''We definitely have got to be able to run the football,'' Bielema said. ''That's an emphasis in our program that has got to come to light more than at any time ever before.''

Arkansas' run struggles began in a season-opening win over UTEP, though the final numbers - 182 yards rushing on 34 carries - appeared acceptable at first glance. However, 70 of those yards came on Collins' draw on the final play of the first half, against a sagging Miners' defense eager to avoid giving up a touchdown.

Without the Collins run, the Razorbacks had a more pedestrian 112 yards rushing on 33 carries in that game - a line that was similar to the 103 yards rushing on 31 carries they had against Toledo.

Collins finished with 54 yards on 20 carries against the Rockets, who Arkansas center Mitch Smothers said followed UTEP's strategy of moving their defensive line in an attempt to confuse Arkansas and clog the middle of the field.

''We're not going to let one game define this whole season,'' Smothers said. ''We've still got a lot of football left to play, and we're definitely going to work on (running the ball).''

Williams rushed for 1,190 yards last season for the Razorbacks, including 145 with four touchdowns in a 49-28 win over Texas Tech, but his loss isn't the only change in the running game.

Arkansas returned four of five starters on the offensive line entering the season, but it did so with junior Denver Kirkland moving from guard to left tackle and former left tackle Dan Skipper - who also played guard last season - taking over on the right side.

Bielema dismissed any questions about the line's chemistry following the moves, saying left guard Sebastian Tretola and right guard Frank Ragnow have continued to play well through the first two weeks with the rest of the group.

However, he was adamant the entirety of Arkansas' offense must improve running the ball this week and as it prepares to open SEC play with three straight road games.

''I do know this, we had our five best players on the field, there isn't any doubt about that,'' Bielema said about the offensive line following the Toledo loss. ''But we've got to get our five players playing better.''

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

No. 12 Oregon evaluates, moves on from Michigan State loss

In the wake of a loss at Michigan State, Oregon is plowing ahead.

''You learn from it, you take inventory of it, you write it down, you don't turn the page yet, you read the page,'' coach Mark Helfrich said. ''You digest it, you fix it and maybe you burn it. And you move forward.''

Oregon dropped from No. 7 to No. 12 in the AP Top 25 following the 31-28 loss to the now-fourth-ranked Spartans on Saturday.

The Ducks (1-1) rallied late with Vernon Adams' 15-yard touchdown pass to Byron Marshall with 3:25 remaining, but then Michigan State's stout defense held. Oregon drove to the Spartans' 33 on its next drive, but Adams overthrew Marshall, then was sacked for a loss of 10. His pass on fourth-and-16 was incomplete.

Helfrich said the difference was in the details.

''That's obviously the difficult part of playing a game like that on the road and in that environment,'' Helfrich said Sunday. ''Every single excruciating detail - in your mind - is the difference in the game.''

There were lingering questions following the game about quarterback Vernon Adams' index finger, which was apparently injured in the season opener. Oregon does not discuss injuries as a policy.

Adams, who threw with gloves on, examined the finger at times during the game and afterward it was taped when he spoke to reporters. He finished with 309 yards passing and the late touchdown to Marshall.

''Anything we say of that nature is an excuse and we don't really get into that realm,'' Helfrich said. ''All I can say for him is that he's gutting it out just like a lot of guys are gutting other things out.''

Adams, who transferred from Eastern Washington for his final season of eligibility, is still learning Oregon's speedy spread offense, Helfrich added.

Oregon has shown in the recent past that one loss won't make or break its season. The Ducks were ranked No. 2 last season when unranked Arizona swept into Eugene and scored four second-half touchdowns for a 31-24 upset.

Oregon regrouped after that loss - which also dropped the Ducks to No. 12 in the rankings - and marched on to victories in the next nine games, including the 59-20 Rose Bowl victory over Florida State in college football's first playoffs.

''There's a bunch of guys that were in the same locker room and we just talked about how that galvanized us last year, and there's absolutely zero reason why that can't happen again,'' Helfrich said.

Receiver Bralon Addison, who was named the Pac-12's special teams player of the week on Monday, pointed to last season's title game.

''It's early, really early. Two teams that played in the national championship last year both had one loss so you know it's a long season. You know teams are going to fight still,'' Addison said. ''Of course, we're not proud of this loss, but there are a lot of things that we can learn from this game.''

Next up for the Ducks is Georgia State (1-1), which is riding high following its 34-32 victory on the road over New Mexico State. It was the Panthers' first win in the Sun Belt Conference since joining in 2013.

Ducks receiver Charles Nelson was already moving on to that one.

''A lot of things we can work on in practice. That's what practice is for, we're going to get back at it on Monday,'' he said following the game. ''I feel like we came out and did what we had to do, but (we had) a couple errors here and there. We can fix that.''

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

4th Quarter Covers - Week 2

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the second weekend of college football. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

Miami, FL (-17½) 44, Florida Atlantic 20: The heavy underdog looked promising most of the way and with a field goal with less than 25 minutes remaining in the game making a 20-20 tie, a major upset looked possible. The Hurricanes put together a few quick scoring drives and the field position for Miami remained strong in the game with five turnovers for the Owls, who also had injuries to their starting quarterback and running back. By the end of the third quarter, Miami led 37-20 and in the fourth quarter, the Hurricanes added another touchdown to get past the spread, getting ‘over’ the total as well.

Penn State (-16½) 27, Buffalo 14: The line on this game fell throughout the week and with Penn State up just 13-7 through three quarters, the underdog Bulls were in a great position to cover. The Penn State offense had an underwhelming performance, but the Lions put together their best drives of the day with two touchdowns in a three-minute span early in the fourth quarter to open up a 20-point lead. Buffalo eventually answered with an 82-yard touchdown drive, scoring with less than five minutes in the game to seal the underdog cover. Penn State had great field position after recovering the onside kick attempt, but they failed to add points.

Connecticut (-6½) 22, Army 17: After falling behind early in the game, Connecticut pulled away from Army in the middle of the game with 19 straight points, leading 22-10 with just over five minutes to go. Army does not pass often, but they hit a 71-yard pass play less than a minute later to put the Knights within the spread.

LSU (-3) 21, Mississippi State 19: LSU scored in the third quarter to take a 21-6 lead, but Mississippi State rallied in the fourth as a touchdown with four minutes to go put the Bulldogs down two and lining up for a two-point conversion to tie the game. That attempt failed but it was enough earn the underdog cover and the Bulldogs got the ball back and had a game-winning 52-year field goal attempt misfire as well as LSU escaped another wild finish.

Kansas State (-14) 30, Texas San Antonio 3: Despite a spread that opened as high as -20, Kansas State led just 7-3 at the half. The Wildcats bogged down in the red zone in the third quarter settling for two short field goals to take a 10-point lead into the final frame. In the fourth, the Wildcats put up 17 more points to pull past the spread as the defense delivered a dominant performance.

Syracuse (-4½) 30, Wake Forest 17: Wake Forest led 17-13 at the half and trailed just 20-17 into the fourth quarter despite allowing an interception return touchdown. In the fourth, the Orange pushed the lead to 13 points and a late Wake Forest drive into Syracuse territory ended in an interception.

Michigan (-13) 35, Oregon State 7: This spread was over two touchdowns most of the week before a sharp drop Saturday morning and heading into the fourth quarter the margin was just 13 points despite a dominant defensive showing from the Wolverines. Michigan added two touchdowns in the final frame to make the score more in line with the production for the day.

Georgia (-18) 31, Vanderbilt 14: While the spread on this game was close to 21 at times during the week, the 24-6 lead for the Bulldogs was right near the opening and closing numbers. Vanderbilt scored a touchdown with a successful two-point conversion with just over four minutes to go and a late pick-six for the Bulldogs was not enough to get back over the number in a game that was very even statistically.

BYU (+2) 35, Boise State 24: The Broncos have been dominant through three quarters in both games this season only to turn in disastrous fourth quarters. Boise State held on to win in the opener, but was not so fortunate this week as BYU erased a 10-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter, taking the lead and the cover with a long touchdown pass with less than a minute to go. Down four, Boise State had an opportunity, but an interception was returned for a touchdown to put the game away for the Cougars. BYU scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter despite drives totaling just 76 yards.

Notre Dame (-14) 34, Virginia 27: Notre Dame led 26-14 heading into the fourth quarter which would have been enough against a spread that hovered between 10 and 11½ most of the week before a late climb. Virginia put together two long fourth quarter touchdown drives to stunningly take the lead in the final two minutes, but the Irish were able answer with a touchdown with 12 seconds to go from back-up quarterback DeShone Kizer.

Iowa (-3½) 31, Iowa State 17: This rivalry game lived up to its billing tied 17-17 entering the fourth quarter. That score held until just over two minutes remained in the game as Iowa cashed in to take a seven-point lead, getting past the favorite spread for the first time in the game. An interception just a few played later sealed the fate for the Cyclones as Iowa put up another seven points to create a misleading final score.

Alabama (-34½) 37, Middle Tennessee State 10: Alabama pulled away late in the second quarter and by the start of the fourth quarter, the Tide led by 34, right even with where the spread was much of the week. Alabama really did not shift to a conservative approach in the fourth as Cooper Batemen was still passing frequently, but an interception inside the Middle Tennessee State 10-yard line was returned 77 yards and the Blue Raiders cashed in for their lone touchdown with about six minutes to go to seal the underdog cover.

Air Force (-4) 37, San Jose State 16: Air Force only led by one point entering the fourth quarter, but the Falcons surged past the small favorite spread in the final frame, putting up three rushing touchdowns. The Spartans were hurt by two late interceptions and Air Force wound up with a big yardage edge.

Pittsburgh (-12½) 24, Akron 7: After a marginal opening week performance on defense, the Panthers had one of the best defensive showings of the weekend allowing just 110 yards against Akron. It was just a 10-7 lead at the half and Pittsburgh was still short of the spread until getting a touchdown with less than three minutes to go in the game, although Akron punted on all of its second half possessions.

Bowling Green (+7) 48, Maryland 27: Bowling Green trailed Maryland by seven well into the third quarter, but the Falcons tied the game and never looked back, scoring four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to take over the game. Maryland had interceptions on each of its final three drives to put the Falcons into several favorable situations, but with nearly 700 yards, the Falcons clearly had a strong performance.

SMU (-6) 31, North Texas 13: The spread climbed on SMU throughout the week despite the Mustangs winning just once last season. North Texas led 13-10 entering the fourth quarter, but SMU would answer with a touchdown early in the fourth to lead by four. The Mustangs would add two more late touchdowns taking advantage of a key fumble to equal last season’s win count already and deliver the home favorite cover.

Washington State (+4½) 37, Rutgers 34: Washington State led by eight heading into what became a wild fourth quarter. Rutgers tied the game just seconds into the final frame and then took the lead on a kickoff return touchdown following a Washington State field goal. The four-point edge was past the common spread on this game, but the Cougars would answer. With less than two minutes to go, Rutgers returned a punt for a touchdown to take the lead by four points again, but Washington State managed to 90 yards, completing the drive with a game-winning score with just 13 seconds on the clock.

Oklahoma (-2½) 31, Tennessee 24: The Volunteers opened up a 17-0 lead early in this game, but they would not score again in regulation. Oklahoma trailed by 14 heading into the fourth quarter, but managed to force overtime in the final minute. Both teams scored seven in session one and the Sooners delivered going first in the second overtime and then got the stop it needed for the win and cover.

Texas (-14½) 42, Rice 28: The statistics were puzzling in this game as Rice had the ball for over 44 minutes and had nearly 200 more yards than Texas. The Owls trailed 21-0 just minutes into the game and trailed 42-14 heading into the fourth quarter with turnovers playing a big role. Rice cut that margin to just 21 points with less than seven minutes to go and another touchdown with less than a minute to go gave Rice the late cover.

Michigan State (-4½) 31, Oregon 28: Michigan State led by 10 entering the fourth quarter in Saturday night’s big game and the after trading scores early in the fourth the Spartans still led by 10 late in the game. Oregon fought back and completed an 80-yard drive with just over three minutes to go to get within the underdog spread and the Ducks had the ball back in Michigan State territory late before the Spartans made the stops to hold on.

Indiana (-9) 36, Florida International 22: The Hoosiers trailed by three early in the fourth quarter with Florida International looking for a second straight significant upset. Indiana tied the game and then went up by seven on a short field goal after a costly fumble for the Panthers. A seven-point lead was not going to be enough for a cover and the Panthers were on the doorstep looking to tie the game when Jameel Cook returned an interception 96 yards to put Indiana up 14 for the final margin.

USC (-44½) 59, Idaho 9: Idaho scored in the third quarter to trim the deficit to just 29 points making the heavy underdog cover likely for the Vandals. USC kept throwing and led by 43 heading into the fourth quarter. Idaho never threatened to add points in the final frame and another USC touchdown gave the Trojans another ATS win as well.

Stanford (-20½) 31, Central Florida 7: Stanford was in control, but the Cardinal only led by 17 entering the fourth quarter. Stanford scored twice in the fourth to move up by 31 points, enough of a margin to survive a late Central Florida touchdown that spoiled the shutout.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY COVERS

Take Texas+7

We’re getting a real pointspread bargain here, thanks to the nuances of the betting marketplace here in September. The bettable line for this game from the Westgate Superbook here in Las Vegas, exactly one month ago, was Texas -9.5. Let me repeat that: Texas -9.5. Personnel wise, virtually nothing has changed in the last month. But the perception of these two teams has changed in the markets, and that offers us legitimate value.
Cal was a hot team in the betting markets in Week 1, taking $$ against FCS Grambling. They closed as 45 point favorites and covered the spread by two touchdowns. Last week, the money poured in on the Bears immediately after the line was posted. Cal opened as low as -7 against San Diego State, but they closed -13 and again, covered the spread by two touchdowns.
What have we seen this week? The exact same betting pattern! Cal opened as three point favorites at Texas. Within 20 minutes, they were bet as high as -7.5 before the line settled at the current -7 point spread. There’s enormous market support for the Bears this week, and it’s taken this pointspread out of anything resembling a ‘reasonable’ range.
And bettors should not be fooled by the Bears four TD win over the Aztecs last week. San Diego State was driving to take the lead at halftime, but an interception led to a Bears TD just before the break, and Cal opened up the 2nd half with a 75 yard big play TD. A tough dogfight turned into a rout, but the markets are focusing more on the final score of the game than the fact that Cal played even with San Diego State at home for a half. I think that’s a mistake.
While Cal has been the betting market darling in early season play, Texas is in the midst of a pointspread freefall. They closed out last year with 48-10 and 31-7 losses to TCU and Arkansas, never sniffing a pointspread cover in either contest. It’s surely worth noting that they were +6 at home against TCU –a Top 5 team – in their regular season finale; something worth thinking about when they are +7 at home against Cal.
The Longhorns opened up this season with a truly ugly national TV blowout loss at Notre Dame. Last week against Rice, Texas gave up a pair of late scores, turning a 42-14 fourth quarter lead into a 42-28 final score. They were laying -14.5, and Texas backers got hooked on that final Rice TD with only seconds remaining on the clock. While Cal has a boatload of pointspread momentum from their supporters, there’s no corresponding momentum building for the Longhorns.
Texas found their quarterback last week, with Jerrod Heard rushing for 96 yards and throwing seven completions for 120 yards; replacing the ineffective, struggling Tyrone Swoops. Texas has found at least some measure of confidence with that victory. Charlie Strong’s defense has the talent and speed to contain Sonny Dykes pass heavy offense. I’m not convinced that Cal’s D has the requisite levels of talent and speed to shut down the Longhorns. Take Texas.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alatex

South Carolina +16.5

South Carolina-Georgia has become one of the better rivalries in the SEC and usually is a big factor in the SEC East race. South Carolina has won four of the past five meetings, including a 38-35 upset win last year as 6.5 point underdogs. The point spread this year is totally out of character for this series, with four straight meetings showing a line of three or less until last year’s 6.5.

Obviously the state of the South Carolina quarterback situation is the biggest factor in the huge number here. Former walkon Perry Orth took over for starter Connor Mitch last week after Mitch separated his shoulder in the 2nd quarter. Orth had good numbers in the loss to Kentucky, going 13-20 for 179 and a touchdown after taking over. He also through a late interception to seal the 26-22 loss. Orth looked like a serviceable quarterback and Spurrier will coach him up this week, so I would expect the Gamecocks to be fine on offense.

Freshman Lorenzo Nunez also took snaps under center against the Wildcats, rushing twice for 40 yards. Spurrier said the dual-threat quarterback could also play more against Georgia, but was noncommittal about whether that might happen.

"It remains to be seen," Spurrier said. "He did play a little bit. Looking back now, we could have played him some more. But we actually moved the ball. We did good the second half. We had one interception, I think, and we had to kick field goals, but we actually moved the ball with Perry in there pretty well the second half. But Lorenzo could play some."

A bigger factor in the game will be the South Carolina rushing defense. They have allowed over 200 yards in both games at a terrible 5.9 yards per carry. Now they face a Georgia offense that features two of the top runners in the SEC in Rob Chubb and Sony Michel. The Bulldogs are averaging 262 yards per game thus far and will look to exploit the struggling Gamecock run defense.

Georgia is not without controversy at quarterback as starter Greyson Lambert, a Virginia transfer, struggled last week against Vanderbilt. Lambert started 0-7 against the Commodores and took plenty of heat from the Bulldogs’ faithful. Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and Head Coach Mark Richt stood by Lambert and expect a better performance this week. Schottenheimer pointed out it wasn’t just Lambert who had a bad game against Vanderbilt. He cited pass protection in certain situations and play calls, especially early against Vanderbilt, that backfired.

Georgia certainly looks to be the better team overall here, but South Carolina seems to always find a way to play the Dogs tough if not beat them. This looks like Spurrier’s weakest team in some time after two games, but the talent level hasn’t fallen off that much this quickly in Columbia. The rushing defense does scare me somewhat, but barring a complete explosion by the Georgia run game, the Gamecocks should be able to keep this one close. Take the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT SPREITZER
NCAA-F | Sep 19, 2015
Nebraska vs. Miami (Fla)
Nebraska+3

I'm recommending a play on Nebraska plus the points on Saturday afternoon. We have a pretty good read on the Huskers so far this season. Going back to August radio in the heartland, we felt the Big Red was laying too many points in their opener against BYU, and even without the Hail Mary at the end of the game, the Cougars would have left Lincoln spread winners. Nebraska has dealt with numerous key injuries and suspensions since the final week or two of August practice. But they're getting healthy as they make their first road trip of the season. Nebraska will get the services of TE Cethan Carter after serving a suspension. Carter is expected to be a huge part of HC Mike Riley's offense. Defensively, Josh Banderas is expected to return at LB after missing last week's game with a groin injury. Banderas is one of the key defenders on the 2015 stop unit. With a couple of key cogs back in the mix, we expect the Husker secondary to be able to focus on stopping the big pass. Miami may be missing one of their top WR's on Saturday with Braxton Berrios downgraded to doubtful. Offensively, as reported, the Huskers lead the nation with 51 plays of 10 yards or more through two games. They'll be a tough stop for a Miami defense with holes and facing their first real test of the season after games against Bethune-Cookman and FAU. Miami allowed Owl RB's Warren & Howell to run for a combined 210 yards on 24 carries, an average of 8.75 yards per carry. And let's not forget, the Owls, who trailed Miami by just three points at the half, didn't have their starting QB Jaquez Johnson, who was injured and knocked from the game in the first quarter. FAU had to go the rest of the contest with a RS Frosh behind center. I do believe the Hurricanes' defense will be out-matched in this one. Nebraska enters on an 8-1 ATS run on the road and I'm recommending a play on the Huskers plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE WIZ

Bowling Green +4 over Memphis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ALLEN *******

Kansas State -9

Kansas State is a team that no one is talking about in the Big 12 this year. But Bill Snyder is one of the best coaches in college football history. He just fields a competitive teams every year. The Wildcats are 2-0 this year, and they have outscored their opponents 64-3 in their two games. Louisiana Tech offers more competition this week. But the Bulldogs are coming off a loss to Sun Belt team Western Kentucky. Now they have to head out to Manhattan to take on a very good Wildcats team. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games, and the Bulldogs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams from the Big 12. Kansas State is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games overall, and I had this spread around 14.5. I think that this will be another easy win for K-State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Nevada +34

In this very space last week, we came away with a pointspread winner with Hawaii (+40) in their improbable cover vs. Ohio St. You, me and THE LONE RANGER were the only ones to cash that winning ticket. Today’s play on Nevada looks just as improbable and as contrary. We need to go no further than my article of the week entitled “A Primer on Using the AFP as Contrary Indicator” to isolate the value in this game. Under 4th year HC Sumlin, there has been little question about the success of the Aggies’ offense. Whether it has been record setting QB Johnny Manziel or this year’s current QB Kyle Allen, the Aggies’ offense has run smooth as a top. Even if the A&M 2nd stringer, QB Murray, should take the reins, there figures to be little drop off from the offensive side of the ball. Witness their 2-0 SU ATS start, in which they have defeated Arizona St. (38-17) and Ball St. (56-23). In so doing, they have covered the number by 23 points setting them up for the first half of our AFP equation. The real reason for the ATS success, however, could be attributed to the defensive side of the ball. In the previous 2 seasons, the Aggies allowed a combined 30 PPG and 463 YPG, fielding PLAY AGAINST 200 CLUB defenses in both years. Out with DC Snyder and in with highly-respected DC Chavis! Nonetheless, it is a bit troublesome for A&M that they still allowed Ball St. to run for 240 yards last week. As easy as it is to play the Texas A&M momentum, remember that this game is sandwiched between that 2-0 SU ATS beginning and 6 consecutive SEC games on the slate ahead. The other half of our AFP equation comes with the Nevada Wolfpack, who is off to a 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS start under 3rd year HC Pollian. Despite 13 RS, Nevada is a largely inexperienced team. One of the major issues with their lack of experience is the loss of 4 year starting QB Fajardo. The Wolfpack did have a confidence-building start in Week 1, when they outlasted Cal-Davis (31-17). That included a 232-89 overland edge against the Aggies in their failure to cover the 24-point impost by 10 points. Last week, Nevada returned home to face an angry Arizona team as 11 point home dog. They were “200 CLUBBED” by the Wildcats who put up 570 total yards in a 44-20 victory in which they covered by 13 points. That sets up the 2nd half of our AFP equation, as the Wolfpack is now (-27) total AFP. To remind you once again of the theory, we look to “ play any team with an ATS record of .500 or less and a negative AFP of 20 or more, if they are playing an opponent who has a .500 or better ATS record and a positive AFP of 20 or more. The sum of the net AFP differential should be 50 or more.” To confirm our theory, we look for value in the betting line, if this week’s line is 7 or more points than the projected opening line in Week 1. Considering that this pointspread may have been little more than 2 TDs opening week, we are looking at the biggest value take on this week’s card. Yet, no one but you, me and THE LONE RANGER will be lining up with the Wolfpack this week … just like when we cashed our Hawaii ticket last Saturday afternoon.


Massachusetts +10.5

Last week in this space, we lost our BIG DOG selection on E. Carolina, when they could only put up 7 total points in their 24 point loss at Stanford as 19 point underdog. This week, we have a far more capable offensive team in UMass, as well as a much better situation. We also have a (+59) net AFP differential in the game (though it does not quite qualify under our strict parameters, as the Minutemen have played just a single contest). Nonetheless, the thinking is certainly there. Review our “LONE RANGER” selection on Nevada or this week’s article entitled “A Primer as Using the AFP as Indicator” for the value thinking in this matchup. Much was expected from the Temple Owls this season. They have 19 RS and a highly-respected 3rd year HC in Matt Rhule. They have not disappointed! In Week 1, Temple defeated Penn St. for the first time since they fought with swords. The victory (27-10) as 6 point underdog was for real, as they outgained the Nittany Lions 317-191, covering by 23 points. Last week, the Owls carried that momentum to Cincinnati, where they recorded another victory by a score of 34-26. This was their opening conference game of the year and allowed Temple to avenge a home field loss last year. Though the Owls did run for 215 yards, they survived courtesy of a (+4) net TO margin and despite allowing Cincinnati QB Kiel to pass for 427 yards. Enter UMass gun-slinger, QB Frohnapfel. With their pro-prospect at the helm, UMass improved their offense from 12/282 in 2013 to 27/421 last year with Frohnapfel leading a passing attack that averaged 312 PYPG. But, UMass clearly underachieved when they faced an angry Buffalo (off a Week 1 loss at Hawaii) at the mile high altitude of Boulder last week. Though Frohnapfel put up 215 passing yards, Colorado stampeded UMass overland 390-147. UMass has 18 RS of their own, arguably the most experienced team in the nation, and will be primed to make amends as they return for their home opener. The combined (-59) net AFP differential assures us that there is value in this line. Clearly, there is some concern that the Owls will dominate overland in this contest. But, the fact Temple is facing a quality signal caller after allowing QB Kiel to torch their secondary last week, plays in our favor. That advantage may pale in comparison to the mental and emotional edge, we have in this contest with Temple due for a probable letdown and UMass sky-high in their home opener off their loss in Boulder and with an opportunity to upset this high-profile Owls team.

Navy -3.5

The Jackets crushed Tulane with a 439-71 yardage edge overland en route to a dominating 65-10 victory and 25 point cover. This week, I expect another solid overland differential, as Navy hosts E. Carolina in an AAC contest. This is a bad scheduling spot for E. Carolina, who left it all on the field last week in their 31-24 loss to Florida. In that contest, the Pirates were looking to avenge a 28-20 Bowl loss. Their efforts fell just short, when 1st year QB Kemp passed for 333 yards and 3 TDs against the Gators. But, Kemp also had a critical fumble inside the Florida 20 with less than a minute to play as the Pirates walked the plank. Key stat from that loss was the fact that Florida outrushed E. Carolina 168 to (-13). E. Carolina figures to suffer much the same fate in this clash with Navy. And without the veteran presence of last year’s starting QB Carden, look for E. Carolina to come up on the short end of the scoreboard again today. Though this is a conference game, the Pirates may treat it with less importance than their higher profile matchup at home with VA Tech next week. This creates an ideal PLAY AGAINST sandwich spot for E. Carolina. No such problem with excitement or motivation for this Navy team, who always comes to play under 8th year HC Niumatalolo. Excitement is in the air at Annapolis, as the Midshipmen play their first ever conference game. They do so with a week of rest following their Week 1 victory against Colgate (48-10). As always, the Middies ground game led the way, as they ran for 371 overland yards on just 47 attempts. That’s traditional for this military school, whose discipline is ideal for running the triple option. Last year, Navy was among the nations’ leaders once again with an average of 338/6.0 on the ground. Today, 4 year starter QB Keenan Reynolds will again lead Navy into battle. He will ably abetted by FB Swain, the first of his 3 triple options. E. Carolina rarely sees the triple option. In fact, the last time they saw it was against this Navy team in 2012, when the Middies came away from an E. Carolina home field with a 56-28 blowout victory. This has all the elements of the CRUSHER OF THE WEEK with the Middies holding key advantages with the fundamentals of their overland game, as well as the situational edge as described above.

 

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Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Saturday, Sept. 19

(913) PITTSBURGH PIRATES VS (914) LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, September 19th, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Pirates and the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Pittsburgh is a long way from home with a middling offenses, 15th in runs scored, 20th in slugging and heads to Dodger stadium, a huge park that is tough to hit in. At least they have a strong arm going in lefty Francisco Liriano (3.45 ERA, 10-7). He is 6-3 on the road with a 2.47 ERA. The Under is 3-1-1 when the Pirates face the National League West. They have to face Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw (2.12 ERA). He has allowed 1 run or less in 7 straight starts! The under is 10-3 in the Dodgers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record and 8-2 under the total at home. In addition the Under is 7-1 in Dodgers last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play the Pirates/Dodgers under the total.

 

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Sat: Air Force +27

 

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STEPHEN NOVER
NCAA-F | Sep 19, 2015
Tulsa vs. Oklahoma
Tulsa+30½

Oklahoma had to exert to a lot of energy in getting past Tennessee on the road last week. The Sooners rallied from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to pull out a double-overtime victory.

Tulsa is taking this in-state rivalry more serious than the Sooners, who open Big 12 play in their next game against unbeaten West Virginia.The Sooners have a bye next week and aren't going to be real excited about this matchup.
The teams have met the past two seasons and Oklahoma was favored by 23 and 24 points, respectively, covering each time. The Sooners blew out the Golden Hurricane in those games, so there is likely to be an overconfidence factor. But now the Sooners are laying an extra touchdown and Tulsa is much better than in the two previous seasons when they were coached by Bill Blankenship, who the team quit on.
The Golden Hurricane have been re-energized with the arrival of first-year head coach Philip Montgomery, who was Art Briles' offensive coordinator at Baylor. So Montgomery is familiar with Oklahoma. Baylor averaged 41 points on the Sooners the last three seasons when Montgomery was in Waco, covering each time.
Montgomery has made Tulsa relevant offensively again. The Golden Hurricane are 2-0 for the first time since 2009 on the basis of averaging 43.5 points and 609 yards per game. Only five teams average more yards per game than Tulsa.
Tulsa quarterback Dane Evans is an experienced pro and has several excellent receivers. The Golden Hurricane can score on any team. They have covered five of the last six times they faced a foe with a winning record and also are 4-1 ATS during their past five away contests.

 

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CHIP CHIRIMBES

LA Tech at Kansas State 3:00 ET

Bulldogs (+) over Wildcats

Kansas State (2-0) opened with dominating wins over Texas-SA and South Dakota has allowed just three points against these two weaklings. Louisiana Tech has had extra time to get ready after their 41-38 loss at Western Kentucky as the Bulldogs are 8th in scoring and 11th in total offense. Kansas State loSt starting quarterback Jesse Ertz to injury and now must rely on untested Joe Hubener and two redshirt-freshman running backs. Jeff Driskel who started 20 games at Florida before transferring the Tech leads their high powered offensive attack and will put up enough points against the Wildcats to get the CASH. Take LOUISIANA TECH!

 

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ASA

Temple vs. UMass
UMass+10½

The public has gotten wind of Temple following their two straight upset wins to open the season which has forced the oddsmakers to over adjust their number on this game so let's step in and take the value with UMass as a double-digit home dog. The Owls have not only won two games but they've been HUGE wins for their program coming against Penn State and at Cincinnati. Temple is 2-0 but they've been outgained by their two opponents in total yards (613 to 740) and in yards per play (5.11 to 5.44). Those are red flags and tell us they are not as good as advertised and the big reason they're 2-0 is turnovers. Last week at Cincy, Temple allowed Gunner Kiel to throw for over 420 yards and gave up over 550 total yards but they benefitted from a +4 turnover margin. UMass has a capable offense with QB Blake Frohnapfel (say that 5 times fast) who was 20 of 34 for 225 yards against Colorado last week and has solid career numbers (3300 yards, 23 TD's to 10 INT's in 2014). Temple allowed less than 200 yards per game passing last season BUT they were 98th in pass attempts per game against them meaning that yardage average is skewed. UMass only scored on half of their redzone possessions last week and we expect them to convert this weekend against a Temple team primed for a letdown. Great situational play on a home dog!

 

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TONY KARPINSKI
NCAA-F | Sep 19, 2015
Rutgers vs. Penn State
Penn State-9

A rare night game for Penn St and Rutgers has all kinds of issues with coach and player suspensions.
Rutgers has shown they have a weak passing coverage, giving up 339 a game. And they have been just lit up with injuries. WR Leonte Carroo is a very tough cover, but with his suspension for violating team conduct, doesn't bode well for Rutgers, in the air.
Penn State is a weird team to figure out, not sure who is going to show up? QB Christian Hackenberg has to become the player that PSU has been expecting for several years. He has been terrible to say the least, this is a game he has to dominate. Sr DE Carl Nassib and Austin Johnson have been very good and will give Rutgers many problems in this matchup. Chris Godwin always seems to make the big catches when needed in particular when the Lions need the first down. Lions pull away in the 2nd half with a big win here.

 

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SAM MARTIN

5* Bonus Play on Northwestern (+3.5).

Wildcats enter the Top 25 this week after a pair of impressive victories against Stanford (won outright as a ten-point home underdog) and Eastern Illinois (covered the spread by 17 points in a 41-0 shutout win). While the pollsters are starting to take a liking to Northwestern, the sportsbooks are still hesitant and they have installed the Wildcats as a road underdog at Duke.
We love taking the points with Northwestern and we fully expect them to win outright against an unproven Blue Devils team. Duke played well in big wins vs. Tulane and NC Central, but haven't yet been tested and will go up against an very good NW defense here. Anyone who watched that Stanford vs. NW game in Week One know the Wildcats won that game in a legitimate fashion. Blue Devils are primarily a rushing offense, and NW held both of their first two opponents to 85 rushing yards or less. Fully confident they can shut down Duke's rushing attack and not at all convinced Duke will be able to contain a hungry and confident Wildcats rushing attack. This game stays close early, but Northwestern wears down the Duke defense in the second half and wins this game outright!

 

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JIMMY BOYD

Free Pick on Auburn +7

The more I look at this game the more I like the value here with Auburn catching a touchdown. The public perception of Auburn couldn't be worse after that near upset loss to Jacksonville State, while LSU is getting plenty of praise from their 21-19 win at Mississippi State, which they led 21-6 in the 4th quarter.
The thing to keep in mind with Auburn is that they opened with a huge game on a neutral site against Louisville out of the ACC and were taking on a FCS opponent with their conference opener on deck against LSU. Head coach Guz Malzahn was begging his players to take Jacksonville State seriously, repeatedly saying in the media that this is a good team. I’m not making excuses for their near upset loss, but I don't think Auburn's players took that message seriously and didn't show up to play.
On the flip side of this, I wasn’t overly impressed with LSU’s win at Mississippi State. Sure a win on the road in the SEC is not easy, but I’m way down on the Bulldogs this year. LSU nearly gave away a 15-point lead in the 4th quarter, as Mississippi State failed on a 2-point conversion that would have tied it with 4 minutes to go. The Bulldogs also outgained LSU 378 to 337 with a 27 to 16 edge in first downs.
My big concern with LSU coming into the year was the quarterback play and it remains a concern after watching Brandon Harris complete just 9 passes for 71 yards against a Mississippi State defense that returned just 3 starters. From what I see, LSU’s offense is almost exclusively sophomore running back Leonard Fournette, who carried it 28 times for 159 yards and 3 scores. That’s important to note, as Fournette had just 42 yards in last year’s blowout loss to Auburn.
While the Auburn defense didn’t look great against Jacksonville State, most of their problems came against the pass, as they allowed 277 yards through the air. They did give up 161 yards on the ground, but the Gamecocks needed 46 attempts, which comes out to just 3.5 yards/carry. It’s also worth noting that they allowed 238 yards rushing against Louisville and won that game 31-24 (led 31-10 late in the 4th before giving up 2 late touchdowns).
When you are as one-dimensional as what LSU looks to be offensively, it makes it easy on the defense and hard to pull away, which is exactly what we saw last week in their game versus Mississippi State. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Auburn won this game outright. It's certainly a possibility if Jeremy Johnson takes care of the football and a motivated Auburn defense keeps Fournette from taking over the game. Take Auburn!