Saturday's Top Action
AUBURN TIGERS (2-0) at LSU TIGERS (1-0)
Tiger Stadium - Baton Rouge, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: LSU -6.5, Total: 49.5
Two ranked teams try to stay unbeaten on Saturday when No. 18 Auburn visits No. 13 LSU in a battle of Tigers.
Although neither team has lost SU (3-0) this season, the schools have a combined 0-3 ATS record in those victories. Auburn survived a major scare last week, as the team needed a last-minute touchdown in regulation and an overtime score to prevail over FCS opponent Jacksonville State, a 39-point underdog. LSU also had a tight matchup last Saturday with then-No. 25 Mississippi State, eking out a 21-19 win thanks to a poorly managed final drive by the Bulldogs. While LSU has had the advantage in this series recently with a 6-2 SU mark (but 3-5 ATS) in the past eight meetings, one of those defeats was last October when Auburn jumped out to a 31-7 halftime lead and cruised to a 41-7 victory. But the stars of that game were Nick Marshall (326 total yards, 4 TD) and Cameron Artis-Payne (161 total yards) who are no longer in college.
Auburn benefits from the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in the first month of the season after closing out the previous winning campaign with 2+ straight losses, are 35-8 ATS (81%) since 1992. But bettors can also point to LSU's stellar 20-8 ATS mark under Les Miles after a game where the team committed zero turnovers. Auburn's defense could be missing some key components with DB Joshua Holsey (knee) doubtful and LB Justin Garrett (quad) questionable to take the field on Saturday. The good news is that both DL Carl Lawson (hip) and DB Tray Matthews (shoulder) were upgraded to probable. For LSU, both DT Mickey Johnson and OL Chidi Valentine-Okeke are out for the season while DE Isaiah Washington (arm) is listed as questionable for this matchup.
Auburn's offense needs to pick up some serious steam after gaining just 401 total yards in an overtime game against FCS Jacksonville State last week. These Tigers have turned the ball over three times in both contests, and when they last visited Baton Rouge in 2013 (a 35-21 loss), they also had three giveaways. Junior QB Jeremy Johnson has thrown five picks already, but he was much more accurate last week (66% completions) than in the season opener (52% completions). Because Johnson does not have the running skills like departed QB Nick Marshall, he'll have to make quicker decisions and safer throws to move the chains against an excellent LSU secondary that led the SEC in passing yards allowed last year (164 YPG). Johnson also needs to find another target besides star WR Ricardo Louis who has 130 of his team's 373 receiving yards.
Auburn's running game hasn't been great either with 355 yards on 4.5 YPC, but top RB Peyton Barber has proven capable of a large workload, rushing 47 times for 240 yards (5.1 YPC) and 1 TD this season. Defensively, the blue and orange Tigers have already allowed 55 first downs, which has led to the lengthy 33:07 time of possession. They are allowing 5.0 yards per play and need to be more opportunistic after a game where they forced only one turnover.
LSU didn't get to play an opening week tune-up when its scheduled game with McNeese State was postponed due to weather after just five minutes of action. But instead of looking sluggish in the new season opener versus Mississippi State, the Tigers came out strong and scored a pair of Leonard Fournette TD runs in the game's first 14 minutes to take a 14-0 lead. But the offense fizzled after that, scoring just seven points (a third Fournette TD run) in the final three quarters. Fournette finished with 159 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) against MSU, while the rest of the team gained only 178 yards.
QB Brandon Harris connected on 9-of-14 passes, but totaled just 71 yards (5.1 YPA) on those conservative throws. Harris was much worse in last year's blowout loss in Auburn, completing only 3-of-14 passes for 58 yards. Fournette wasn't too effective against the blue and orange Tigers with 42 yards on 10 carries. LSU's rushing defense was incredibly stingy in the win versus Mississippi State, allowing only 43 yards on 26 carries, but the pass defense was exposed. Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards (6.4 YPA) with 1 TD and 0 INT, and LSU failed to generate any takeaways. Saturday will be a great opportunity to make plays on the ball with Auburn.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (1-1) at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (2-0)
Sanford Stadium - Athens, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Georgia -16.5, Total: 53.5
South Carolina tries to bounce back quickly from a disappointing loss when it visits No. 7 Georgia on Saturday night. The Gamecocks were not supposed to lose to 7-point underdog Kentucky in their home opener last week, but they allowed 399 total yards and fell 26-22. They also lost starting QB Connor Mitch (shoulder) indefinitely in that loss. The Bulldogs surrendered 400 total yards in their SEC opener last week in Vanderbilt, but still prevailed 31-14. These division foes have played a lot of close games recently, as the past six matchups have been decided by a total of 60 points (including 28 in one game), with the home team winning five of those meetings. Last year's matchup was a thrilling 38-35 victory by South Carolina, as the teams combined for 855 yards of offense. While Georgia holds the 7-4 SU advantage at home in this series since 1993, the club is just 5-6 ATS in these recent Athens meetings.
Bettors should consider head coach Steve Spurrier's 25-9 ATS record following a contest where his Gamecocks gained 6.75+ yards per play, but favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged at least 5.25 yards per carry last year are a hefty 43-16 ATS (73%) over the past 10 seasons. In addition to Mitch, South Carolina has several injury concerns with TE Connor Redmond (back), LB Sherrod Pittman (leg) and DBs Antoine Wilder (ankle), Shannon James (wrist) and Chris Lammons (ribs) all listed as questionable. The Bulldogs are in great shape for this matchup, as star RB Nick Chubb, who suffered an ankle injury last game, has been upgraded to probable.
South Carolina will start junior QB Perry Orth on Saturday after he did a fine job replacing injured Connor Mitch last week, finishing 13-of-20 for 179 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Orth will certainly lean heavily on superstar WR Pharoh Cooper who has 12 of his team's 29 catches and 145 of South Carolina's 362 receiving yards this year. Cooper also scored a touchdown in the win versus Georgia last season, but caught just three passes for 27 yards. His targets will have to increase greatly for the Gamecocks to hang in. South Carolina will also have to run the football as well as they did last year against Georgia when they gained 176 yards (4.2 YPC) and 2 TD. Top RB Brandon Wilds had 93 of those yards on 14 carries (6.6 YPC) and a touchdown, and Wilds is off to a flying start to the 2015 season with 157 yards on 30 carries (5.2 YPC).
The big problem for South Carolina's defense has been the inability to stop the run, as the team is allowing 207 YPG on the ground on 5.9 YPC. The pass defense hasn't been much better with 212 YPG allowed (7.1 YPA) on a whopping 67% completion rate. The Gamecocks cannot expect turnovers to occur, as the Bulldogs have zero giveaways this season.
Georgia's offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far, especially against conference foe Vanderbilt when it gained 423 total yards. This included 281 yards on 6.9 YPC on the ground thanks in large part to RB Nick Chubb. The sophomore ran for 189 yards (9.9 YPC) last Saturday to give him 309 rushing yards (8.8 YPC) for the season. He got just four carries against the Gamecocks last year, gaining 34 yards (8.5 YPC), but expect him to get about 25 touches this time around, especially with South Carolina's poor run defense so far.
With opponents having to key on Chubb, QB Greyson Lambert has not seen a lot of pressure. The 6-foot-5 junior has taken only one sack, but he'll need to be more accurate than his 52% completions last week. Most of his targets are going to WRs Sony Michel and Malcolm Mitchell who have combined for 197 of the team's 333 receiving yards. Defensively, Georgia has been stingy against the run in holding opponents to a meager 75 YPG on 2.3 YPC. But the pass defense has been shaky with surrendering 250 YPG on 6.3 YPA and 60% completions.
STANFORD CARDINAL (1-1) at USC TROJANS (2-0)
L.A. Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: USC –9.5, Total: 51
No. 7 USC gets its first real test of the season on Saturday night when Stanford pays a visit to Los Angeles.
The Cardinal did not start the 2015 season on a high note, losing 16-6 at Northwestern, but were able to bounce back strong last week with a 31-7 home drubbing of UCF. The Trojans have demolished two soft opponents to open 2015, crushing 27-point underdog Arkansas State 55-6 before taking down 44.5-point favorite Idaho by a 59-9 score.
This series between Pac-12 foes was once dominated by USC, but has been quite competitive recently with all five matchups this decade being decided by eight points or less. The Trojans have won two straight meetings by a field goal each time, prevailing 13-10 at Stanford last season when Andre Heidari connected from 53 yards out to break the tie with 2:30 left on the clock. Since 1999, these programs have met eight times in L.A. with the Cardinal holding the surprising 5-3 SU advantage (5-2-1 ATS).
Stanford benefits from the betting trend that road underdogs after allowing single-digit points in their previous game facing an opponent allowing three points or less in the first half of its previous game are a hefty 31-8 ATS (80%) in the past five seasons. However, USC is 18-4 ATS (82%) at home coming off 2+ straight ATS wins since 1992.
Each team has a pair of significant ailments, as the Cardinal lost DL Harrison Phillips to a season-ending knee injury and LB Noor Davis (leg) is questionable for Saturday. USC has two key players questionable for this matchup in LB Lamar Dawson (ribs) and OL Damien Mama (knee).
Stanford has not been able to rush the football to the level of its usually high standards, gaining just 108 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Sophomore Christian McCaffrey has carried the football 32 times for only 124 yards (3.9 YPC), which is a far cry from his 7.1 YPC average in 2014. Last week, McCaffrey gained only 2.9 YPC on his 20 totes. Senior RB Remound Wright has just 10 carries for 39 yards this year, but he might get a bigger workload considering his 60 yards on 11 rushes (5.5 YPC) in the loss to USC last year.
Despite the Cardinal producing only 10 points against the Trojans in 2014, QB Kevin Hogan had an excellent day with 285 passing yards on 9.5 YPA. He's been solid this season as well with 496 passing yards on 7.8 YPA with 3 TD and 1 INT. McCaffrey has been a great dump-off option with a team-high nine catches, while the speedy RB Bryce Love already has a 93-yard TD reception. Top WR Michael Rector has a gaudy 19.2 average on his five grabs.
If these big plays continue to happen, Stanford will be in great shape because of a defense that has looked stellar so far. The unit is allowing 127 rushing YPG on a mere 3.1 YPC and 128 passing YPG on 4.2 YPA and a 42.6% completion rate. However, the Trojans offense is absolutely electric with their elite signal caller at the helm.
USC QB Cody Kessler has led his team to 57.0 PPG and 623 total YPG in this young season. The 6-foot-1 senior has completed 79% of his passes for 650 yards (11.4 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. Three receivers are averaging more than 20 yards per reception, including go-to sophomore WR JuJu Smith-Schuster who already has 14 catches for 281 yards and 3 TD. The next highest totals for USC are six catches (WR Steven Mitchell Jr.) and 66 yards (WR Isaac Whitney), which shows just how valuable Smith-Schuster has been. The only negative for the offense is that Kessler has been sacked five times, and he was frequently pressured at Stanford last season when he threw for only 135 yards on 6.1 YPA.
The Trojans' ground game has also been spectacular this year with 469 yards on 6.8 YPC with eight touchdowns. Both RBs Ronald Jones II (169 rush yds, 12.1 YPC, 2 TD) and Tre Madden (142 rush yds, 7.5 YPC, 3 TD) have been finding all kinds of holes to run through. USC's defense is allowing 356 total YPG, which is actually pretty low considering its gaudy 34:57 defensive time of possession.
Opponents have gained only 3.4 YPC and 5.3 YPA, and the unit has four takeaways this season, all against Arkansas State. Turnovers are always a big story in football, and in the past 14 meetings of this series with uneven takeaway numbers, the team that has won the turnover battle has a stellar 13-1 SU record.
OLE MISS REBELS (2-0) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (2-0)
Bryant-Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Alabama -6.5, Total: 49
No. 2 Alabama looks to avenge last year's loss to No. 15 Ole Miss when the SEC foes open up conference play on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa.
The Rebels have been unstoppable on offense this season with 149 points and 1,269 total yards in two games versus UT-Martin (76-3 win) and Fresno State (73-21 win). The Crimson Tide have scored at least 35 points with at least 500 yards of offense in both of their victories over Wisconsin (35-17) and Middle Tennessee (37-10). Ole Miss was the only team to hand Alabama a regular-season loss last season by scoring 20 of the 23 second-half points to win 23-17. That marked the first Rebels win in this series since 2003, as the Tide had won the previous 10 matchups by an average of 15.5 PPG. Hugh Freeze has been a stellar bet in the first half of the season as the Ole Miss head coach, going 17-4 ATS, including a 10-2 ATS mark in August/September. But home teams coming off two straight wins by 17+ points facing an opponent coming off back-to-back games scoring 42+ points are 36-11 ATS (77%) since 1992.
The Rebels could be a little thin up front with OLs Robert Conyers (knee) and Laremy Tunsil (eligibility) both questionable to suit up on Saturday, and they could also be without DB C.J. Hampton (suspension). The Tide also have a couple of injury concerns with LB Reuben Foster (shoulder) questionable for this matchup and DB Jabriel Washington out 2-to-4 weeks with a knee injury. Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly has been even better than advertised, completing 73% of his passes for 557 yards on 13.9 YPA with six touchdowns and only one interception. But the junior will see much better competition than he ever has on Saturday and won't likely go the entire game without being sacked like he's done twice this season. Junior WR Quincy Adeboyejo already has four touchdown grabs and 153 receiving yards, while senior WR Cody Core has a team-high 176 yards on a 22.0 average. Top WR Laquon Treadwell looks fully recovered from the broken leg he suffered late last season, and hopes to produce even more than the 55 yards and one touchdown he had against Alabama last year. TE Evan Engram has only one reception this season, but will be a key to this game having gained a team-high 71 receiving yards on just three catches in last year's upset of the Tide.
The Rebels running game has also been outstanding in 2015 with 553 yards on 7.8 YPC with nine touchdowns. Four ball carriers (Jaylen Walton, Eugene Brazley, D.K. Buford and DeVante Kincade) are all averaging more than 10 yards per rush in 2015, but running on Alabama is never easy and Ole Miss has been limited to 80 rushing yards or less in four straight meetings in this series. Because the offense has been scoring so quickly, the Rebels defense has been on the field for an average of 35:25 this season. But the unit has held its opponents to 4.2 yards per play and 3.1 yards per carry, while forcing five turnovers, including four last Saturday versus Fresno State. Takeaways are always a huge factor in any football game, especially in this series where the school with the better turnover margin has won seven straight meetings.
Alabama senior QB Jake Coker has been excellent this season in completing 64% of his throws for 427 yards (9.1 YPA), but has only 2 TD and 1 INT. Five different receivers already have at least seven receptions led by sophomore WR ArDarius Stewart's 10 grabs. RB Kenyan Drake has a team-high 139 yards while sophomore WR Robert Foster has caught two of the team's three touchdowns through the air. But for Alabama to win this matchup, it will have to run the football much better than the pedestrian 168 yards and 3.8 YPC it had in the loss at Oxford last year. Top RB Derrick Henry already has 243 yards (7.8 YPC) and six touchdowns this season, but found very little running room against the outstanding front four of Ole Miss in 2014, as he managed just 37 yards on 17 carries (2.2 YPC).
Alabama's defense has not given up much this year, especially on the ground where it held an excellent Wisconsin rushing offense to 40 yards on 21 carries before limiting Middle Tennessee to 86 yards on 31 carries. But the secondary hasn't been all that special, allowing 208 passing YPG on a 60% completion rate. Turnovers have been a big factor though, as just like Rebels, Alabama has five takeaways already, including four last week. Another factor in this game could be special teams, as Tide kicker Adam Griffith is a miserable 0-for-4 on field goal attempts in the early season.
