Total Notes - Week 3
By Chris David
Week 2 Recap
The ‘over’ produced a 25-19-1 record in Week 2 in the 45 matchups between FBS schools. The sportsbooks fared well with the ‘under’ cashing in the majority of primetime games from Thursday through Saturday. VegasInsider.com total expert James Manos returns with his thoughts on the first two weeks of the college football regular season.
Manos said, “It's become harder to win as the sportsbooks and players have all become sharper and the sharing of information has led to a "one source" pool that forces solid handicappers to become excellent market analyzers and originators in order to win. Books constantly adjust, so bettors must too. With that said, adjusting after just two weeks of the season is a slippery slope. I spend a lot of hours preparing for the football season to begin, so I feel that my off-season numbers are well formed and educated. However, adjustments must always be made, especially in the totals arena, but in the first several weeks it will take a larger discrepancy for me to start altering my vision of a team, coach, or offensive unit.”
All professionals use metrics in their analysis and Manos is no stranger to numbers. He has a unique set of defensive and offensive efficiency ratings and he shares his adjustments on two schools below:
Wyoming - Anybody who knows me knows that I love new Cowboys head coach Craig Bohl. He was the best off-season hire by any school and he understands football in a very player friendly way. This is not a talented Wyoming team and Bohl has quickly recognized that and is playing to his strengths. The Cowboys lost their only true playmaker from LY in QB Smith but did return nine starters to the defense. Bohl and his staff were infamous at NDSU for taking a grouping of decent players and turning them into an outstanding defensive unit. He's on his way to doing that here as well. He's realized that his team will have to rely on defense and slowing down the game, in Wyoming's two games they've averaged just 66 plays per game. Also, their offensive efficiency rating prior to the Montana game (22.1%) was one of the lowest I've set this year. Expect solid defense and slowly paced games.
Western Kentucky - New HC Jeff Brohm did a good job of keeping his new offensive style under wraps during the summer. In his preparation for the opener vs. Bowling Green, he acted as if the up-tempo play would be dictated by the Falcons new offense and not his own. Covert operations were at work. Brohm is an offensive minded coach and he's putting out a product that displays his own preferred style. The Hilltoppers have been playing fast and with 8 returning starters on offense, including a SR QB, he obviously thought he had a lot to work with. QB Doughty has attempted 104 passes in just two games and WKU has run 97 and 79 plays while scoring a combined 93 points. Hilltoppers totals will be adjusted accordingly but their schedule still has the potential for more shootouts.
Wyoming and Western Kentucky both play on the road this weekend, visiting Oregon and Middle Tennessee respectively. Coincidentally, the total for their games both opened at 67 and they’ve both been bet down.
Check out more College Football selections from James Manos on VegasInsider.com
Big Five Notes (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-12, SEC)
The ACC saw the ‘over’ go 4-2 in lined games last week as 10 of the 13 schools in action scored 30-plus points and four posted 45 points or more.
In the four FBS vs. FBS matchups in the Big 12 from Week 2, the ‘over’ went 3-1.
The ‘over’ went 5-4 in the Big Ten last weekend and bettors might want to keep an eye on the defensive units in this group. Michigan (31), Michigan State (46), Ohio State (35), Illinois (34) and Purdue (38) allowed a handful of points in Week 2.
The Pac-12 watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 in Week 2 and if you include California’s result (55-14) against FCS school Cal State-Sacramento, it would be 7-3. The Bears were one of four Pac-12 schools to score 55 or more points last weekend.
It was a stalemate in the SEC for totals last weekend as the O/U produced a 4-4 mark. The ‘under’ should’ve went 5-4 but the Alabama-FAU result (41-0) wasn’t official since the game was called due to weather before it was deemed official (55 minutes).
3rd and Ugly
One statistic that I personally use to handicap totals is 3rd Down Conversion Percentage. If you can’t move the chains, then you’re not going to score points which could lead you to ‘under’ bets on these schools. Per numbers from the NCAA, here are the worst five teams in the nation.
Miami, Fl – 13%
SMU – 17%
Florida International – 22.6%
Temple – 22.9%
Texas – 23.3%
These five schools have a combined ‘under’ record of 2-8.
And listed below are the five highest third-down conversion percentages for teams that have played two games.
Georgia Tech – 68.2%
Auburn – 67.9%
Texas A&M – 67.7%
Middle Tennessee – 64%
Baylor – 63.9%
If you bet the ‘over’ blindly on these teams, you would be 8-2.
Line Moves
The professionals dominated with their moves in Week 1 but came back to life in Week 2. We asked Manos how novice bettors should react to line moves on totals.
He answered, “I think this depends on the type of line movement and the time of the year. I'm much more leery of significant moves on totals early in the season for a variety of reasons. Early movements, early in the season are generally the work of syndicates and well prepared totals players. These moves are generally sharp and not the work of the betting public, so taking notice of them or getting ahead of them is necessary to win. I classify these early total movements into four categories."
1) Correct sharp movement
2) Incorrect sharp movement
3) Public movement
4) Market manipulation.
Here's an example of each from the movements so far this week:
1) Correct sharp movement - Indiana/Bowling Green OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Nevada/Arizona OVER
3) Public movement - Georgia/South Carolina OVER
4) Market manipulation - Western Kentucky/Middle Tennessee UNDER
"As a generalization (I can't emphasize that enough, a GENERALIZATION) I respect line moves early in the year and will look to get ahead of them or follow. Later in the year, I've got more data to work with and the totals have much less variance, so I'm more apt to fade a total at its peak and gain the value in the extra numbers. Chasing steam on totals can work but as the season progresses it loses some of its value. So far the early line movers have had two very different weeks, Week 1 was a rousing success and Week 2 was chock full of losers (especially betting at or near the closing numbers)."
"I think an interesting game to watch from a totals perspective this week will be the Kentucky-Florida matchup. The movement upwards in the total from 48 to 53 is significant (crossing two key numbers) and is driven by sharp money. Someone must believe in Florida's new offense or that Kentucky will have success against a very good Florida defense. However, Florida's only game was vs. Eastern Michigan so its 65 points can be discounted a bit and the defense allowed only 125 yards and ZERO points. Kentucky does return seven offensive starters and is vastly improved from last year but in their lone game vs. FBS competition the final score was 20-3. I originally had this movement penciled in as market manipulation but none of the indicators are there to tell me that's what it is. OVER backers have driven this one up but I'll have to see it to believe it."
Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers as of Friday afternoon.
Week 3 Total Moves
Matchup Open Current
Indiana at Bowling Green 64 72.5
Kent State at Ohio State 52 48
Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion 70 73
Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech 60 54
West Virginia at Maryland 56 60.5
Louisville at Virginia 53 48.5
Wyoming at Oregon 67 64
Air Force at Georgia State 57.5 63
Arkansas State at Miami, Fl. 56.5 52
Kentucky at Florida 48 53
UCLA at Texas 54 50
USC at Boston College 51 55
Nevada at Arizona 60 63.5
By Chris David
Week 2 Recap
The ‘over’ produced a 25-19-1 record in Week 2 in the 45 matchups between FBS schools. The sportsbooks fared well with the ‘under’ cashing in the majority of primetime games from Thursday through Saturday. VegasInsider.com total expert James Manos returns with his thoughts on the first two weeks of the college football regular season.
Manos said, “It's become harder to win as the sportsbooks and players have all become sharper and the sharing of information has led to a "one source" pool that forces solid handicappers to become excellent market analyzers and originators in order to win. Books constantly adjust, so bettors must too. With that said, adjusting after just two weeks of the season is a slippery slope. I spend a lot of hours preparing for the football season to begin, so I feel that my off-season numbers are well formed and educated. However, adjustments must always be made, especially in the totals arena, but in the first several weeks it will take a larger discrepancy for me to start altering my vision of a team, coach, or offensive unit.”
All professionals use metrics in their analysis and Manos is no stranger to numbers. He has a unique set of defensive and offensive efficiency ratings and he shares his adjustments on two schools below:
Wyoming - Anybody who knows me knows that I love new Cowboys head coach Craig Bohl. He was the best off-season hire by any school and he understands football in a very player friendly way. This is not a talented Wyoming team and Bohl has quickly recognized that and is playing to his strengths. The Cowboys lost their only true playmaker from LY in QB Smith but did return nine starters to the defense. Bohl and his staff were infamous at NDSU for taking a grouping of decent players and turning them into an outstanding defensive unit. He's on his way to doing that here as well. He's realized that his team will have to rely on defense and slowing down the game, in Wyoming's two games they've averaged just 66 plays per game. Also, their offensive efficiency rating prior to the Montana game (22.1%) was one of the lowest I've set this year. Expect solid defense and slowly paced games.
Western Kentucky - New HC Jeff Brohm did a good job of keeping his new offensive style under wraps during the summer. In his preparation for the opener vs. Bowling Green, he acted as if the up-tempo play would be dictated by the Falcons new offense and not his own. Covert operations were at work. Brohm is an offensive minded coach and he's putting out a product that displays his own preferred style. The Hilltoppers have been playing fast and with 8 returning starters on offense, including a SR QB, he obviously thought he had a lot to work with. QB Doughty has attempted 104 passes in just two games and WKU has run 97 and 79 plays while scoring a combined 93 points. Hilltoppers totals will be adjusted accordingly but their schedule still has the potential for more shootouts.
Wyoming and Western Kentucky both play on the road this weekend, visiting Oregon and Middle Tennessee respectively. Coincidentally, the total for their games both opened at 67 and they’ve both been bet down.
Check out more College Football selections from James Manos on VegasInsider.com
Big Five Notes (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-12, SEC)
The ACC saw the ‘over’ go 4-2 in lined games last week as 10 of the 13 schools in action scored 30-plus points and four posted 45 points or more.
In the four FBS vs. FBS matchups in the Big 12 from Week 2, the ‘over’ went 3-1.
The ‘over’ went 5-4 in the Big Ten last weekend and bettors might want to keep an eye on the defensive units in this group. Michigan (31), Michigan State (46), Ohio State (35), Illinois (34) and Purdue (38) allowed a handful of points in Week 2.
The Pac-12 watched the ‘over’ go 6-3 in Week 2 and if you include California’s result (55-14) against FCS school Cal State-Sacramento, it would be 7-3. The Bears were one of four Pac-12 schools to score 55 or more points last weekend.
It was a stalemate in the SEC for totals last weekend as the O/U produced a 4-4 mark. The ‘under’ should’ve went 5-4 but the Alabama-FAU result (41-0) wasn’t official since the game was called due to weather before it was deemed official (55 minutes).
3rd and Ugly
One statistic that I personally use to handicap totals is 3rd Down Conversion Percentage. If you can’t move the chains, then you’re not going to score points which could lead you to ‘under’ bets on these schools. Per numbers from the NCAA, here are the worst five teams in the nation.
Miami, Fl – 13%
SMU – 17%
Florida International – 22.6%
Temple – 22.9%
Texas – 23.3%
These five schools have a combined ‘under’ record of 2-8.
And listed below are the five highest third-down conversion percentages for teams that have played two games.
Georgia Tech – 68.2%
Auburn – 67.9%
Texas A&M – 67.7%
Middle Tennessee – 64%
Baylor – 63.9%
If you bet the ‘over’ blindly on these teams, you would be 8-2.
Line Moves
The professionals dominated with their moves in Week 1 but came back to life in Week 2. We asked Manos how novice bettors should react to line moves on totals.
He answered, “I think this depends on the type of line movement and the time of the year. I'm much more leery of significant moves on totals early in the season for a variety of reasons. Early movements, early in the season are generally the work of syndicates and well prepared totals players. These moves are generally sharp and not the work of the betting public, so taking notice of them or getting ahead of them is necessary to win. I classify these early total movements into four categories."
1) Correct sharp movement
2) Incorrect sharp movement
3) Public movement
4) Market manipulation.
Here's an example of each from the movements so far this week:
1) Correct sharp movement - Indiana/Bowling Green OVER
2) Incorrect sharp movement - Nevada/Arizona OVER
3) Public movement - Georgia/South Carolina OVER
4) Market manipulation - Western Kentucky/Middle Tennessee UNDER
"As a generalization (I can't emphasize that enough, a GENERALIZATION) I respect line moves early in the year and will look to get ahead of them or follow. Later in the year, I've got more data to work with and the totals have much less variance, so I'm more apt to fade a total at its peak and gain the value in the extra numbers. Chasing steam on totals can work but as the season progresses it loses some of its value. So far the early line movers have had two very different weeks, Week 1 was a rousing success and Week 2 was chock full of losers (especially betting at or near the closing numbers)."
"I think an interesting game to watch from a totals perspective this week will be the Kentucky-Florida matchup. The movement upwards in the total from 48 to 53 is significant (crossing two key numbers) and is driven by sharp money. Someone must believe in Florida's new offense or that Kentucky will have success against a very good Florida defense. However, Florida's only game was vs. Eastern Michigan so its 65 points can be discounted a bit and the defense allowed only 125 yards and ZERO points. Kentucky does return seven offensive starters and is vastly improved from last year but in their lone game vs. FBS competition the final score was 20-3. I originally had this movement penciled in as market manipulation but none of the indicators are there to tell me that's what it is. OVER backers have driven this one up but I'll have to see it to believe it."
Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers as of Friday afternoon.
Week 3 Total Moves
Matchup Open Current
Indiana at Bowling Green 64 72.5
Kent State at Ohio State 52 48
Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion 70 73
Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech 60 54
West Virginia at Maryland 56 60.5
Louisville at Virginia 53 48.5
Wyoming at Oregon 67 64
Air Force at Georgia State 57.5 63
Arkansas State at Miami, Fl. 56.5 52
Kentucky at Florida 48 53
UCLA at Texas 54 50
USC at Boston College 51 55
Nevada at Arizona 60 63.5
