EPL Best Bets - Week 4
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
The international break is always of interest on the betting front, but from a fan's point of view it just doesn't quite hit the spot for me. This is particularly so now that my team, Brentford, has been promoted to the Championship and has the international break off.
So it is with great pleasure that we return to club football, and Week 4 of the English Premier League. The action from two weeks ago was marked by two big London vs Merseyside clashes. Chelsea put in one of the best attacking performances I can remember as they beat Everton (always a very difficult place to go) 6-3, while Liverpool responded impressively to defeat at Manchester City with a 3-0 win at Spurs.
Let's handicap Week 4.
The Banker: Chelsea to win to nil vs Swansea City at 10/11.
Jose Mourinho is the master of the home league win. From Feb. 23, 2002 to Apr. 2, 2011, when Sporting Gijon won at his Real Madrid side, Mourinho went 150 games without overseeing a home league defeat. While at Real Madrid there is more emphasis on attack, his record at Chelsea is based around a superb defence. Out of 79 home league matches, Mourinho has won 43 of them to nil, at 54%. The statistics really are astounding.
They come up against a Swansea side that has had a fantastic start to the season, and will take great encouragement from their win at Manchester United on the opening day. Chelsea are, however, a totally different proposition. No matter how mentally strong you are, teams just wilt against Chelsea when they go 1-0 down. In 463 league games, Mourinho's sides have lost just nine having taken the lead. Swansea are an excellent side who have only conceded once all season and have won three out of three, but their run looks likely to end in West London.
The Solid Bet: Manchester City to win at Arsenal at 27/20
Manchester City are still yet to hit top form in the Premier League, and suffered a shock home defeat to Stoke City last time out. The feeling was after the game that it was something of a fluke - a match to be written off and forgotten about. This is probably true - City dominated as they usually do at home, but just couldn't finish (not usually a problem). And they were undone by a moment of magic from Stoke's Mame Biram Diouf.
The really interesting thing about City's lunchtime visit to Arsenal is to see whether the home side can shake off their simply awful form against the best teams. Arsenal only lost twice last season to teams outside the top seven, but succumbed to embarrassing defeats to the big boys. Albeit away from home, they lost 6-3 to City, 5-1 to Liverpool and 6-0 to Chelsea. They managed a creditable 1-1 draw in this fixture last year, but City were missing Sergio Aguero that day, and Edin Dzeko was poor.
For me, Arsenal just haven't made the right signings to improve their record in the big games. They still do not have a single top quality defensive midfielder - arguably the most important position in these matches. Mikel Arteta, like so many Arsenal players, can do a job in 80% of matches, but comes unstuck in the tougher ones. It is hard to see how Arsenal can win this one.
The Outsider: Aston Villa to beat or draw with Liverpool (double chance) at 5/2
Villa are a very attractive bet here, and there are plenty of interesting ways to side with them. Their record at Anfield is excellent. Since the 2007/08 season, it reads P7, W2, D3, L2. They drew 2-2 in this fixture last season, and won 3-1 the year before. Paul Lambert's side are the kind of team Liverpool could struggle against. Liverpool play such an attacking game with a scarily high defensive line, and that plays into the hands of Villa's quick counter-attacks. Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann are two of the quickest players in the league and may find some joy against a dodgy home defence.
The 2-2 draw last year was, in many ways, a prophesy of Liverpool bottling the Premier League title last year. The central-midfield partnership of Steven Gerrard and Jordan Henderson did not give nearly enough protection to the back four, leaving space for Villa's lightning-quick transitions. This young Villa side has done much of its best work away from Villa Park, and they look value shots to get something here. Both teams to score at evens (1/1) looks a particularly good shout.
Liverpool's injury problems are also a worry. This will be the first time in ages that they will start a match without Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, so they will have to completely re-jig their attack, with Mario Balotelli a talented but unreliable focal point.
The First Goalscorer: Diego Costa at 7/2 for Chelsea vs. Swansea City
Diego Costa looks the signing of the season already. After three and a half years with an obvious weakness up front, Chelsea finally have the centre-forward to replace Didier Drogba. Costa is a real Mourinho-player. He is hard-working, strong and quick. In every way he shows up Fernando Torres, and how well Chelsea might have done if they had not signed the now-departed Spaniard. Costa has a streetwise nastiness that everyone at Chelsea will love.
He has scored Chelsea's first goal in all three league games so far. This shows that, as well as being a big-game player, he is a scorer of big goals. This is reminiscent of Didier Drogba, whose record in finals is legendary. And again, this is in total contrast to Fernando Torres, who went a year and a half without scoringa genuinely important goal for the Blues. 7/2 looks good value on Costa to score his fifth of the season with the opening goal on Saturday.
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
The international break is always of interest on the betting front, but from a fan's point of view it just doesn't quite hit the spot for me. This is particularly so now that my team, Brentford, has been promoted to the Championship and has the international break off.
So it is with great pleasure that we return to club football, and Week 4 of the English Premier League. The action from two weeks ago was marked by two big London vs Merseyside clashes. Chelsea put in one of the best attacking performances I can remember as they beat Everton (always a very difficult place to go) 6-3, while Liverpool responded impressively to defeat at Manchester City with a 3-0 win at Spurs.
Let's handicap Week 4.
The Banker: Chelsea to win to nil vs Swansea City at 10/11.
Jose Mourinho is the master of the home league win. From Feb. 23, 2002 to Apr. 2, 2011, when Sporting Gijon won at his Real Madrid side, Mourinho went 150 games without overseeing a home league defeat. While at Real Madrid there is more emphasis on attack, his record at Chelsea is based around a superb defence. Out of 79 home league matches, Mourinho has won 43 of them to nil, at 54%. The statistics really are astounding.
They come up against a Swansea side that has had a fantastic start to the season, and will take great encouragement from their win at Manchester United on the opening day. Chelsea are, however, a totally different proposition. No matter how mentally strong you are, teams just wilt against Chelsea when they go 1-0 down. In 463 league games, Mourinho's sides have lost just nine having taken the lead. Swansea are an excellent side who have only conceded once all season and have won three out of three, but their run looks likely to end in West London.
The Solid Bet: Manchester City to win at Arsenal at 27/20
Manchester City are still yet to hit top form in the Premier League, and suffered a shock home defeat to Stoke City last time out. The feeling was after the game that it was something of a fluke - a match to be written off and forgotten about. This is probably true - City dominated as they usually do at home, but just couldn't finish (not usually a problem). And they were undone by a moment of magic from Stoke's Mame Biram Diouf.
The really interesting thing about City's lunchtime visit to Arsenal is to see whether the home side can shake off their simply awful form against the best teams. Arsenal only lost twice last season to teams outside the top seven, but succumbed to embarrassing defeats to the big boys. Albeit away from home, they lost 6-3 to City, 5-1 to Liverpool and 6-0 to Chelsea. They managed a creditable 1-1 draw in this fixture last year, but City were missing Sergio Aguero that day, and Edin Dzeko was poor.
For me, Arsenal just haven't made the right signings to improve their record in the big games. They still do not have a single top quality defensive midfielder - arguably the most important position in these matches. Mikel Arteta, like so many Arsenal players, can do a job in 80% of matches, but comes unstuck in the tougher ones. It is hard to see how Arsenal can win this one.
The Outsider: Aston Villa to beat or draw with Liverpool (double chance) at 5/2
Villa are a very attractive bet here, and there are plenty of interesting ways to side with them. Their record at Anfield is excellent. Since the 2007/08 season, it reads P7, W2, D3, L2. They drew 2-2 in this fixture last season, and won 3-1 the year before. Paul Lambert's side are the kind of team Liverpool could struggle against. Liverpool play such an attacking game with a scarily high defensive line, and that plays into the hands of Villa's quick counter-attacks. Gabriel Agbonlahor and Andreas Weimann are two of the quickest players in the league and may find some joy against a dodgy home defence.
The 2-2 draw last year was, in many ways, a prophesy of Liverpool bottling the Premier League title last year. The central-midfield partnership of Steven Gerrard and Jordan Henderson did not give nearly enough protection to the back four, leaving space for Villa's lightning-quick transitions. This young Villa side has done much of its best work away from Villa Park, and they look value shots to get something here. Both teams to score at evens (1/1) looks a particularly good shout.
Liverpool's injury problems are also a worry. This will be the first time in ages that they will start a match without Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, so they will have to completely re-jig their attack, with Mario Balotelli a talented but unreliable focal point.
The First Goalscorer: Diego Costa at 7/2 for Chelsea vs. Swansea City
Diego Costa looks the signing of the season already. After three and a half years with an obvious weakness up front, Chelsea finally have the centre-forward to replace Didier Drogba. Costa is a real Mourinho-player. He is hard-working, strong and quick. In every way he shows up Fernando Torres, and how well Chelsea might have done if they had not signed the now-departed Spaniard. Costa has a streetwise nastiness that everyone at Chelsea will love.
He has scored Chelsea's first goal in all three league games so far. This shows that, as well as being a big-game player, he is a scorer of big goals. This is reminiscent of Didier Drogba, whose record in finals is legendary. And again, this is in total contrast to Fernando Torres, who went a year and a half without scoringa genuinely important goal for the Blues. 7/2 looks good value on Costa to score his fifth of the season with the opening goal on Saturday.
English Premier League betting preview: New-look Man U worth the wager?
By SOCCER AUTHORITY
The Premier League returns after a painfully boring international week. Soccer Authority breaks down the best ways to wager on this weekend’s action in the EPL:
Will Man Utd's stars shine?
Everybody I'm sure is anxious to see the new Manchester United lineup with Falcao, Di Maria, Rojo, and Daley Blind all set to start against Q.P.R this weekend (Man Utd 2/7, QPR 17/2, Draw 9/2).
I don't think anybody can fathom anything other than a heavy win for Man United, but we feel this one could be a potential banana skin. Approach with caution.
Aston Villa looking for momentum
After an abysmal season last year, Paul Lambert's side find themselves unbeaten and sitting in third place. They will have their first real test away to Liverpool Saturday.
Aston Villa can be taken at 11/1 to win this game, our pick for this one would be a slightly safer option. Take Villa +1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 15/14
Chelsea versus Swansea
These are the only teams with 100 percent win records. Chelsea are very short priced considering their amazing home form (undefeated in 28 of their last 29 home matches ).
Regardless of who wins this game, it should be a good one to watch for the neutral. Both teams move the ball around very well. We can see Swansea scoring at least one here, so both teams to score (5/4) looks like real value if you can get on.
Key injuries
Liverpool will be missing Talisman Daniel Sturridge and Glen Johnson from their defense.
By SOCCER AUTHORITY
The Premier League returns after a painfully boring international week. Soccer Authority breaks down the best ways to wager on this weekend’s action in the EPL:
Will Man Utd's stars shine?
Everybody I'm sure is anxious to see the new Manchester United lineup with Falcao, Di Maria, Rojo, and Daley Blind all set to start against Q.P.R this weekend (Man Utd 2/7, QPR 17/2, Draw 9/2).
I don't think anybody can fathom anything other than a heavy win for Man United, but we feel this one could be a potential banana skin. Approach with caution.
Aston Villa looking for momentum
After an abysmal season last year, Paul Lambert's side find themselves unbeaten and sitting in third place. They will have their first real test away to Liverpool Saturday.
Aston Villa can be taken at 11/1 to win this game, our pick for this one would be a slightly safer option. Take Villa +1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 15/14
Chelsea versus Swansea
These are the only teams with 100 percent win records. Chelsea are very short priced considering their amazing home form (undefeated in 28 of their last 29 home matches ).
Regardless of who wins this game, it should be a good one to watch for the neutral. Both teams move the ball around very well. We can see Swansea scoring at least one here, so both teams to score (5/4) looks like real value if you can get on.
Key injuries
Liverpool will be missing Talisman Daniel Sturridge and Glen Johnson from their defense.
Action Report: Bettors loving the Over in Man City-Arsenal match
Stephen Campbell
Arsenal visits Manchester City in Premier League action Saturday, and bettors are convinced it's going to be a high-scoring affair.
Sportsbooks currently list the total for the match at 2.5 goals, but the book is seeing 81 percent of bets on the Over for the match.
"Over 2.5 goals opened at -133 and is currently -112 as of Friday, which means that the market has moved against the overwhelming majority of bets on the Over," said a source from Pinnacle. "The Under seems to be the sharp play, even with City's attack having lead the league in scoring a year ago."
Each club has scored five goals apiece in their opening three games. Arsenal has allowed four goals in that span, while Man City has conceded only two.
There's a more even distribution on the spread (+-0.25) at the book, with 60 percent of punters on Arsenal.
Stephen Campbell
Arsenal visits Manchester City in Premier League action Saturday, and bettors are convinced it's going to be a high-scoring affair.
Sportsbooks currently list the total for the match at 2.5 goals, but the book is seeing 81 percent of bets on the Over for the match.
"Over 2.5 goals opened at -133 and is currently -112 as of Friday, which means that the market has moved against the overwhelming majority of bets on the Over," said a source from Pinnacle. "The Under seems to be the sharp play, even with City's attack having lead the league in scoring a year ago."
Each club has scored five goals apiece in their opening three games. Arsenal has allowed four goals in that span, while Man City has conceded only two.
There's a more even distribution on the spread (+-0.25) at the book, with 60 percent of punters on Arsenal.
UFC Fight Night 51: Preview
Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) is back in once more with another event featuring several pivotal division match-ups. It all plays out with UFC Fight Night 51 tomorrow (Saturday, September 13th) from Brasilia, Brazil, which includes a massive heavyweight rematch in the main event. Here's the outline for tomorrow's show:
Main Card
265 lbs: Antonio Bigfoot Silva (18-5-1) vs. Andrei Arlovski (22-10-1)
155 lbs: Gleison Tibau (29-10) vs. Piotr Hallman (15-2)
155 lbs: Leonardo Santos (12-3-1) vs. Efrain Escudero (19-5)
170 lbs: Santiago Ponzinibbio (18-2) vs. Wendell Oliveira Marques (24-7)
135 lbs: Iuri Alcantara (30-5) vs. Russell Doane (14-3)
135 lbs: Jessica Andrade (11-3) vs. Larissa Pacheco (10-0)
Preliminary Card
145 lbs: Godofredo Pepey Castro (10-3) vs. Dashon Johnson (9-1)
170 lbs: Igor Araujo (25-6) vs. George Sullivan (15-3)
155 lbs: Francisco Trinaldo (14-4) vs. Leandro Silva (11-1-1)
170 lbs: Paulo Thiago (15-7) vs. Sean Spencer (11-3)†
135 lbs: Rani Yahya (19-8) vs. Johnny Bedford (19-11-1)
This event is special due to the headlining bout of the main card, which features a rematch almost five years in the making as former title challenger Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva takes on former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei "Pitbull" Arlovski. Both men have a ton of knockout power and have been knocked out multiple times in the past so there is a serious possibility for violence if they throw caution to the wind.
Pay special attention to the women's bantamweight contest between Jessica Andrade and Larissa Coreia Pacheco in the opening bout of the main card. Pacheco is making her debut as Brazil's Jungle Fights women's champion while Andrade is currently on a two-fight winning streak in the UFC and has looked very impressive as of late. Both ladies are extremely talented and the winner of this bout will be in a very good spot in the division.
Ultimate Fighting Championships (UFC) is back in once more with another event featuring several pivotal division match-ups. It all plays out with UFC Fight Night 51 tomorrow (Saturday, September 13th) from Brasilia, Brazil, which includes a massive heavyweight rematch in the main event. Here's the outline for tomorrow's show:
Main Card
265 lbs: Antonio Bigfoot Silva (18-5-1) vs. Andrei Arlovski (22-10-1)
155 lbs: Gleison Tibau (29-10) vs. Piotr Hallman (15-2)
155 lbs: Leonardo Santos (12-3-1) vs. Efrain Escudero (19-5)
170 lbs: Santiago Ponzinibbio (18-2) vs. Wendell Oliveira Marques (24-7)
135 lbs: Iuri Alcantara (30-5) vs. Russell Doane (14-3)
135 lbs: Jessica Andrade (11-3) vs. Larissa Pacheco (10-0)
Preliminary Card
145 lbs: Godofredo Pepey Castro (10-3) vs. Dashon Johnson (9-1)
170 lbs: Igor Araujo (25-6) vs. George Sullivan (15-3)
155 lbs: Francisco Trinaldo (14-4) vs. Leandro Silva (11-1-1)
170 lbs: Paulo Thiago (15-7) vs. Sean Spencer (11-3)†
135 lbs: Rani Yahya (19-8) vs. Johnny Bedford (19-11-1)
This event is special due to the headlining bout of the main card, which features a rematch almost five years in the making as former title challenger Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva takes on former UFC Heavyweight Champion Andrei "Pitbull" Arlovski. Both men have a ton of knockout power and have been knocked out multiple times in the past so there is a serious possibility for violence if they throw caution to the wind.
Pay special attention to the women's bantamweight contest between Jessica Andrade and Larissa Coreia Pacheco in the opening bout of the main card. Pacheco is making her debut as Brazil's Jungle Fights women's champion while Andrade is currently on a two-fight winning streak in the UFC and has looked very impressive as of late. Both ladies are extremely talented and the winner of this bout will be in a very good spot in the division.
Boxing experts, books navigate best ways to bet Mayweather-Maidana 2
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
The countdown is on with the finish line officially in sight for undefeated welterweight champion and pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather, Jr. He enters the first of his final three fights this weekend at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas before calling it a career next September.
For Mayweather (46-0, 26 KOs) to escape the 2014 calendar year undefeated and straps intact, he’ll have to get through a familiar opponent in Argentina’s Marcos Maidana (35-4, 31 KOs), who gave Mayweather all he could handle this past May in a closely-fought contest that resulted in a majority decision for the champion.
The question now entering Saturday night’s title fight is whether or not Maidana can learn from his shortcomings the last time out and become the first fighter in history to hand Mayweather a loss on his pristine resume.
“I don't think Maidana is on Floyd's level,” renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa . “Throw scorecards out the window. Sure, Maidana gave Floyd fits at times with roughhouse tactics, but Floyd is the best in boxing at adjusting after a few rounds and ultimately taking control of fights. It's really hard to imagine Maidana doing any better than he did in the first fight and, outside of a criminal decision, Floyd's not going to lose even if the judges try to score rounds for the underdog.”
While some believe that Mayweather is ripe for a fall - and that Maidana is the perfect candidate to successfully seize such an opportunity - others attribute that close call last May to a distracted Mayweather, who had broken off his engagement with fiancée Shantel Jackson in the days leading up to the bout.
“Mayweather's entire life outside of the ring has been a distraction,” says Oddessa. “If there was ever a guy who was contradictory in all of sports it may be Floyd Mayweather. The media's portrayal of his actions outside the ring would lead bettors to believe he wouldn't be as great as he is and been due for a letdown for years. Hindsight is 46-0. We see how that logic has turned out.”
Listed as high as +850 the last time around, bookmakers are giving more respect to Maidana for the rematch. The Argentinian knockout artist can currently be purchased for a price of anywhere from +525 to +600.
When it comes to boxing, the key, however, is to know when to fire on your fighter of choice.
“The best time to bet an underdog in a big fight is generally as early as possible,” Jeff Sherman, assistant sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook . “The best time to bet the favorite is usually as close to the fight as possible. We’ll write more tickets on Maidana, but will take more money on Mayweather.”
With Mayweather currently listed in the neighborhood of -725 all the way up to -1,000, is there any value in backing the undefeated champion in Saturday night’s rematch?
“You would need a significant bankroll to overcome 46 losses and that's what you would be sitting on if you kept banking on Mayweather’s opponents year to date,” says Oddessa. “It's Floyd or pass. Oscar Wilde said, ‘People know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' Crazy things happen, but there's no value in a losing bet. I don't see any value in betting against Floyd.”
If backing Mayweather is too rich for the blood and supporting Maidana is foolish, considering the undefeated and undisputed opponent standing across the ring, there’s another option for bettors to explore before making a wager for Saturday night’s title fight.
Six of Mayweather’s last seven fights have reached the cards and resulted in a decision victory. And betting Mayweather by decision doesn’t come with the same lofty price tag as backing the champ simply to win.
“Floyd by decision is the logical outcome and is reasonably betable at ballpark prices of around -250. But you always have to expect the unexpected. I can see Floyd putting Maidana on the canvas, as Victor Ortiz and Amir Khan both did in the past. Maidana gets up, but a decision or technical decision is the most logical outcome.”
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
The countdown is on with the finish line officially in sight for undefeated welterweight champion and pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather, Jr. He enters the first of his final three fights this weekend at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas before calling it a career next September.
For Mayweather (46-0, 26 KOs) to escape the 2014 calendar year undefeated and straps intact, he’ll have to get through a familiar opponent in Argentina’s Marcos Maidana (35-4, 31 KOs), who gave Mayweather all he could handle this past May in a closely-fought contest that resulted in a majority decision for the champion.
The question now entering Saturday night’s title fight is whether or not Maidana can learn from his shortcomings the last time out and become the first fighter in history to hand Mayweather a loss on his pristine resume.
“I don't think Maidana is on Floyd's level,” renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa . “Throw scorecards out the window. Sure, Maidana gave Floyd fits at times with roughhouse tactics, but Floyd is the best in boxing at adjusting after a few rounds and ultimately taking control of fights. It's really hard to imagine Maidana doing any better than he did in the first fight and, outside of a criminal decision, Floyd's not going to lose even if the judges try to score rounds for the underdog.”
While some believe that Mayweather is ripe for a fall - and that Maidana is the perfect candidate to successfully seize such an opportunity - others attribute that close call last May to a distracted Mayweather, who had broken off his engagement with fiancée Shantel Jackson in the days leading up to the bout.
“Mayweather's entire life outside of the ring has been a distraction,” says Oddessa. “If there was ever a guy who was contradictory in all of sports it may be Floyd Mayweather. The media's portrayal of his actions outside the ring would lead bettors to believe he wouldn't be as great as he is and been due for a letdown for years. Hindsight is 46-0. We see how that logic has turned out.”
Listed as high as +850 the last time around, bookmakers are giving more respect to Maidana for the rematch. The Argentinian knockout artist can currently be purchased for a price of anywhere from +525 to +600.
When it comes to boxing, the key, however, is to know when to fire on your fighter of choice.
“The best time to bet an underdog in a big fight is generally as early as possible,” Jeff Sherman, assistant sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook . “The best time to bet the favorite is usually as close to the fight as possible. We’ll write more tickets on Maidana, but will take more money on Mayweather.”
With Mayweather currently listed in the neighborhood of -725 all the way up to -1,000, is there any value in backing the undefeated champion in Saturday night’s rematch?
“You would need a significant bankroll to overcome 46 losses and that's what you would be sitting on if you kept banking on Mayweather’s opponents year to date,” says Oddessa. “It's Floyd or pass. Oscar Wilde said, ‘People know the price of everything and the value of nothing.' Crazy things happen, but there's no value in a losing bet. I don't see any value in betting against Floyd.”
If backing Mayweather is too rich for the blood and supporting Maidana is foolish, considering the undefeated and undisputed opponent standing across the ring, there’s another option for bettors to explore before making a wager for Saturday night’s title fight.
Six of Mayweather’s last seven fights have reached the cards and resulted in a decision victory. And betting Mayweather by decision doesn’t come with the same lofty price tag as backing the champ simply to win.
“Floyd by decision is the logical outcome and is reasonably betable at ballpark prices of around -250. But you always have to expect the unexpected. I can see Floyd putting Maidana on the canvas, as Victor Ortiz and Amir Khan both did in the past. Maidana gets up, but a decision or technical decision is the most logical outcome.”
Mayweather vs. Maidana
Welterweight Championship - Floyd Mayweather Jr. (46-0) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-4)
Line
Floyd Mayweather Jr. -850
Marcos Rene Maidana +575
Floyd Mayweather Jr. will once again put his undefeated record on the line on Saturday night as he takes on Marcos Maidana for the second time in four months.
These two fighters clashed on May 3 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, with Mayweather getting a majority decision victory. The scoring in the fight was 117-111, 116-112 and 114-114. While he got the win to remain unbeaten, this was one of the most difficult fights that Mayweather has had in his career, as Maidana landed 221 punches in the first fight, which is the most times that Mayweather has ever been hit. Maidana was especially effective at landing his power punches, as he landed 185 out of his 540 attempts (34 percent).
For Maidana, he did a great job in the early rounds, really getting after Mayweather. However, for the champion, that is partially by design. Mayweather is famous for feeling his opponent out in the early rounds, and then taking advantage of his opponent in the later rounds. Mayweather still landed more punches (230) and jabs (52-36) and had a much higher percentage of power punches landed (65%) compared to 34% for Maidana.
Of Mayweather's 46 career victories, 26 have come way of knockout, but nine of the past 11 victories have been decisions, showing that he is able to compete and win in any kind of matchup. Mayweather is such a skilled fighter who is as quick of a boxer as the sport has ever seen. Opponents have tried for years to really take the fight to him and get physical, but end up wearing themselves out as they can’t connect with their punches on him. One knock on Mayweather is that he lacks the elite knockout power as other fighters. In the first fight against Maidana, “Pretty Boy” connected on 54 percent of his punches (230 out of 426).
He is so great at picking his spots, that it allowed him to overcome a 432-punch-attempt difference in the win four months ago. If the Michigan-born Mayweather is able to do what he has done his entire career, he will be in great shape. However, if it turns into a slugfest, then Maidana has a real chance to win pull off the upset.
"El Chino" Maidana was terrific in the first fight, earning the respect of many people with how he came out on the attack right away. The Argentina-born fighter is a true knockout artist who has 35 wins in his career, 31 of which coming by way of knockout, and 23 of those KO's coming in the first three rounds. His start in the first fight was unbelievable, as he really set the tone early.
However, he experienced what a lot of fighters do against Mayweather, and that is the fact that he may be the best-conditioned athlete in all of sports. The 31-year-old Maidana came into the last fight with a 17-pound weight advantage, and must use that size and power advantage in this match if he is going to get the biggest victory of his career. However, the 5-foot-8 Mayweather has a one-inch height advantage, and Maidana's reach (69") is three inches shorter than his opponent.
Listed below are the latest props for the upcoming bout.
Final Result
Mayweather Jr. by Decision -240
Mayweather Jr by KO - TKO - DQ +320
Maidana by KO - TKO - DQ +850
Maidana by Decision +1100
Draw +2000
Pick the Round
1 Round Maidana Wins Fight 50/1
1 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 32/1
2 Round Maidana Wins Fight 50/1
2 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 28/1
3 Round Maidana Wins Fight 53/1
3 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 23/1
4 Round Maidana Wins Fight 55/1
4 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 18/1
5 Round Maidana Wins Fight 60/1
5 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 15/1
6 Round Maidana Wins Fight 60/1
6 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 14/1
7 Round Maidana Wins Fight 63/1
7 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 13/1
8 Round Maidana Wins Fight 64/1
8 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 12/1
9 Round Maidana Wins Fight 65/1
9 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 11/1
10 Round Maidana Wins Fight 65/1
10 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 11/1
11 Round Maidana Wins Fight 65/1
11 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 11/1
12 Round Maidana Wins Fight 70/1
12 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 13/1
Total Props
Over 10.5 (-375)
Under 10.5 (+250)
Over 11.5 (-320)
Under 11.5 (+220)
Over 9.5 (-400)
Under 9.5 (+270)
Over 8.5 (-430)
Under 8.5 (+290)
Over 7.5 (-525)
Under 7.5 (+350)
Over 6.5 (-600)
Under 6.5 (+375)
Over 5.5 (-750)
Under 5.5 (+450)
Over 4.5 (-1200)
Under 4.5 (+600)
Welterweight Championship - Floyd Mayweather Jr. (46-0) vs. Marcos Maidana (35-4)
Line
Floyd Mayweather Jr. -850
Marcos Rene Maidana +575
Floyd Mayweather Jr. will once again put his undefeated record on the line on Saturday night as he takes on Marcos Maidana for the second time in four months.
These two fighters clashed on May 3 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, with Mayweather getting a majority decision victory. The scoring in the fight was 117-111, 116-112 and 114-114. While he got the win to remain unbeaten, this was one of the most difficult fights that Mayweather has had in his career, as Maidana landed 221 punches in the first fight, which is the most times that Mayweather has ever been hit. Maidana was especially effective at landing his power punches, as he landed 185 out of his 540 attempts (34 percent).
For Maidana, he did a great job in the early rounds, really getting after Mayweather. However, for the champion, that is partially by design. Mayweather is famous for feeling his opponent out in the early rounds, and then taking advantage of his opponent in the later rounds. Mayweather still landed more punches (230) and jabs (52-36) and had a much higher percentage of power punches landed (65%) compared to 34% for Maidana.
Of Mayweather's 46 career victories, 26 have come way of knockout, but nine of the past 11 victories have been decisions, showing that he is able to compete and win in any kind of matchup. Mayweather is such a skilled fighter who is as quick of a boxer as the sport has ever seen. Opponents have tried for years to really take the fight to him and get physical, but end up wearing themselves out as they can’t connect with their punches on him. One knock on Mayweather is that he lacks the elite knockout power as other fighters. In the first fight against Maidana, “Pretty Boy” connected on 54 percent of his punches (230 out of 426).
He is so great at picking his spots, that it allowed him to overcome a 432-punch-attempt difference in the win four months ago. If the Michigan-born Mayweather is able to do what he has done his entire career, he will be in great shape. However, if it turns into a slugfest, then Maidana has a real chance to win pull off the upset.
"El Chino" Maidana was terrific in the first fight, earning the respect of many people with how he came out on the attack right away. The Argentina-born fighter is a true knockout artist who has 35 wins in his career, 31 of which coming by way of knockout, and 23 of those KO's coming in the first three rounds. His start in the first fight was unbelievable, as he really set the tone early.
However, he experienced what a lot of fighters do against Mayweather, and that is the fact that he may be the best-conditioned athlete in all of sports. The 31-year-old Maidana came into the last fight with a 17-pound weight advantage, and must use that size and power advantage in this match if he is going to get the biggest victory of his career. However, the 5-foot-8 Mayweather has a one-inch height advantage, and Maidana's reach (69") is three inches shorter than his opponent.
Listed below are the latest props for the upcoming bout.
Final Result
Mayweather Jr. by Decision -240
Mayweather Jr by KO - TKO - DQ +320
Maidana by KO - TKO - DQ +850
Maidana by Decision +1100
Draw +2000
Pick the Round
1 Round Maidana Wins Fight 50/1
1 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 32/1
2 Round Maidana Wins Fight 50/1
2 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 28/1
3 Round Maidana Wins Fight 53/1
3 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 23/1
4 Round Maidana Wins Fight 55/1
4 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 18/1
5 Round Maidana Wins Fight 60/1
5 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 15/1
6 Round Maidana Wins Fight 60/1
6 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 14/1
7 Round Maidana Wins Fight 63/1
7 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 13/1
8 Round Maidana Wins Fight 64/1
8 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 12/1
9 Round Maidana Wins Fight 65/1
9 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 11/1
10 Round Maidana Wins Fight 65/1
10 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 11/1
11 Round Maidana Wins Fight 65/1
11 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 11/1
12 Round Maidana Wins Fight 70/1
12 Round Mayweather Jr. Wins Fight 13/1
Total Props
Over 10.5 (-375)
Under 10.5 (+250)
Over 11.5 (-320)
Under 11.5 (+220)
Over 9.5 (-400)
Under 9.5 (+270)
Over 8.5 (-430)
Under 8.5 (+290)
Over 7.5 (-525)
Under 7.5 (+350)
Over 6.5 (-600)
Under 6.5 (+375)
Over 5.5 (-750)
Under 5.5 (+450)
Over 4.5 (-1200)
Under 4.5 (+600)
CFL Betting Recap - Week 11
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 11
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 11
Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 11
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 11
The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 11
Team Betting Notes
The 'over' finally dominated for the first time in four weeks. The 'under' was 10-3 in the past three weeks entering Week 11.
Calgary (9-1) continues to crush the competition, including their provincial rivals from Edmonton (7-3). The Stampeders won 31-24 on the road against the Eskimos. Calgary has won five straight games and covered each contest.
Ottawa (1-9) lost for the seventh consecutive game Friday against the BC Lions (6-4), but don't blame the RedBlacks' defense. They allowed just seven points, and have given up just 17.3 ppg over the past four losses, all 'unders'.
Montreal (3-7) pulled into a tie for first place in the disappointing East Division with idle Toronto (3-7). The Alouettes have won back-to-back games for the first time this season.
The 'under' had cashed in five of the past six for Montreal, but the 'over' came through against Hamilton (2-7) Sunday.
Saskatchewan (8-2) has rattled off seven straight wins since starting the season 1-2 SU. The Roughriders swept the home-and-home with Winnipeg (6-5).
The Blue Bombers started the season 5-1, but they have dropped four of the past five to fall into last place out West.
By Joe Williams
League Betting Notes
Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 11
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 11
Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 11
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 11
The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 11
Team Betting Notes
The 'over' finally dominated for the first time in four weeks. The 'under' was 10-3 in the past three weeks entering Week 11.
Calgary (9-1) continues to crush the competition, including their provincial rivals from Edmonton (7-3). The Stampeders won 31-24 on the road against the Eskimos. Calgary has won five straight games and covered each contest.
Ottawa (1-9) lost for the seventh consecutive game Friday against the BC Lions (6-4), but don't blame the RedBlacks' defense. They allowed just seven points, and have given up just 17.3 ppg over the past four losses, all 'unders'.
Montreal (3-7) pulled into a tie for first place in the disappointing East Division with idle Toronto (3-7). The Alouettes have won back-to-back games for the first time this season.
The 'under' had cashed in five of the past six for Montreal, but the 'over' came through against Hamilton (2-7) Sunday.
Saskatchewan (8-2) has rattled off seven straight wins since starting the season 1-2 SU. The Roughriders swept the home-and-home with Winnipeg (6-5).
The Blue Bombers started the season 5-1, but they have dropped four of the past five to fall into last place out West.
CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
By David Schwab
The cream of the crop in the CFL keeps rising to the top as the regular season rolls into Week 12.
Looking back at last weekend’s results, British Columbia got things started by grinding-out a 7-5 win over Ottawa on Friday night as an eight-point road favorite. The total obviously stayed UNDER the 47-point closing line. On Saturday, Calgary improved its position atop the West Division with a 41-34 victory against Edmonton as a three-point favorite on the road. The total in this contest easily went OVER a closing line of 48½ points.
Sunday’s double-header started with Montreal getting past Hamilton 38-31 as a slight 1 ½-point home underdog with the total going OVER the 46-point line. Saskatchewan held off Winnipeg on the road 30-24 as a 2½-point favorite in the second game. The total went OVER a closing line of 50½ points.
Saturday, Sept. 13
Toronto (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Calgary (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
Toronto comes off its bye week looking to snap a three-game skid in which it went 1-2 ATS as an underdog. The one bright spot for the Argonauts has been the play of Ricky Ray at quarterback with 2,584 passing yards and a league-high 16 touchdown throws, be he has not been able to keep pace with a defense that is allowing 26.2 PPG.
The Stampeders are charging their way towards the Grey Cup Playoffs with the best record in the league and they come into this matchup riding a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has been one of the biggest surprises this season with the top passer rating in the league (100.5)
Betting Trends
Toronto holds a 7-2 edge ATS in the last nine meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last seven meetings in Calgary. The Stampeders rolled to a 34-15 victory early in the season as 2½-point favorites on the road. The total stayed UNDER the 55-point line.
Winnipeg (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) at British Columbia (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -7½
Total: 50½
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers had their chances in the back-end of Sunday’s home-and-home series against Saskatchewan with Drew Willy throwing for 360 yards and two touchdowns, but he was also picked-off twice. He currently leads the CFL in total passing yards (2,889), but he only has one more touchdown throw (12) than interceptions (11).
BC got Travis Lulay back in the lineup as its starting quarterback against the RedBlacks, but his return looks to be short-lived after leaving the game with another shoulder injury. Kevin Glenn did an admirable job at times in his absence, but this could be a big setback for the Lions in their stretch run to the playoffs.
Betting Trends
The Blue Bombers come into this West Division showdown with a 6-2-1 ATS record in the last nine meetings at BC Place and they have a profitable 7-3 mark ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 11 matchups played in BC.
Sunday, Sept. 14
Saskatchewan (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Hamilton (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Pick 'em
Total: Off
Game Overview
The defending 2013 Grey Cup Champs have built up a head of steam as the regular season wears on with a seven-straight wins (5-2 ATS). The bad news for this contest could be the availability of quarterback Darian Durant, who left Sunday’s game against Winnipeg with elbow injury. He has been ruled out for Sunday’s game and his status for the remainder of the year does not look good.
Hamilton is in desperate need of a win after posting just one SU victory in its last five games. The Tiger-Cats have failed to cover in all five contests. The 31 points that they did put up in last week’s loss was the most this team scored since a late July win over Ottawa. Zach Collaros threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns while completing 30-of 43 attempts against the Alouettes.
Betting Trends
These two team met on opening day with Saskatchewan cruising to a 31-10 victory as a 3½-point home favorite. It is now 6-1 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.
By David Schwab
The cream of the crop in the CFL keeps rising to the top as the regular season rolls into Week 12.
Looking back at last weekend’s results, British Columbia got things started by grinding-out a 7-5 win over Ottawa on Friday night as an eight-point road favorite. The total obviously stayed UNDER the 47-point closing line. On Saturday, Calgary improved its position atop the West Division with a 41-34 victory against Edmonton as a three-point favorite on the road. The total in this contest easily went OVER a closing line of 48½ points.
Sunday’s double-header started with Montreal getting past Hamilton 38-31 as a slight 1 ½-point home underdog with the total going OVER the 46-point line. Saskatchewan held off Winnipeg on the road 30-24 as a 2½-point favorite in the second game. The total went OVER a closing line of 50½ points.
Saturday, Sept. 13
Toronto (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Calgary (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF
Game Overview
Toronto comes off its bye week looking to snap a three-game skid in which it went 1-2 ATS as an underdog. The one bright spot for the Argonauts has been the play of Ricky Ray at quarterback with 2,584 passing yards and a league-high 16 touchdown throws, be he has not been able to keep pace with a defense that is allowing 26.2 PPG.
The Stampeders are charging their way towards the Grey Cup Playoffs with the best record in the league and they come into this matchup riding a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has been one of the biggest surprises this season with the top passer rating in the league (100.5)
Betting Trends
Toronto holds a 7-2 edge ATS in the last nine meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last seven meetings in Calgary. The Stampeders rolled to a 34-15 victory early in the season as 2½-point favorites on the road. The total stayed UNDER the 55-point line.
Winnipeg (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) at British Columbia (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -7½
Total: 50½
Game Overview
The Blue Bombers had their chances in the back-end of Sunday’s home-and-home series against Saskatchewan with Drew Willy throwing for 360 yards and two touchdowns, but he was also picked-off twice. He currently leads the CFL in total passing yards (2,889), but he only has one more touchdown throw (12) than interceptions (11).
BC got Travis Lulay back in the lineup as its starting quarterback against the RedBlacks, but his return looks to be short-lived after leaving the game with another shoulder injury. Kevin Glenn did an admirable job at times in his absence, but this could be a big setback for the Lions in their stretch run to the playoffs.
Betting Trends
The Blue Bombers come into this West Division showdown with a 6-2-1 ATS record in the last nine meetings at BC Place and they have a profitable 7-3 mark ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 11 matchups played in BC.
Sunday, Sept. 14
Saskatchewan (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Hamilton (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Pick 'em
Total: Off
Game Overview
The defending 2013 Grey Cup Champs have built up a head of steam as the regular season wears on with a seven-straight wins (5-2 ATS). The bad news for this contest could be the availability of quarterback Darian Durant, who left Sunday’s game against Winnipeg with elbow injury. He has been ruled out for Sunday’s game and his status for the remainder of the year does not look good.
Hamilton is in desperate need of a win after posting just one SU victory in its last five games. The Tiger-Cats have failed to cover in all five contests. The 31 points that they did put up in last week’s loss was the most this team scored since a late July win over Ottawa. Zach Collaros threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns while completing 30-of 43 attempts against the Alouettes.
Betting Trends
These two team met on opening day with Saskatchewan cruising to a 31-10 victory as a 3½-point home favorite. It is now 6-1 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.
CFL
TORONTO (3 - 7) at CALGARY (9 - 1) - 9/13/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINNIPEG (6 - 4) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 4) - 9/13/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games in September games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO (3 - 7) at CALGARY (9 - 1) - 9/13/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 4-2 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 4-2 straight up against CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINNIPEG (6 - 4) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (6 - 4) - 9/13/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in road games in September games since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CFL
Trends
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Calgary's last 14 games
Calgary is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
WINNIPEG vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Trends
TORONTO vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Calgary's last 14 games
Calgary is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Toronto
WINNIPEG vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Six best bets in college football you didn't know about
By KEVIN CAUSEY
There are 31 college football teams that are 2-0 ATS in the first two weeks, but just six of those programs have covered as an underdog in both games. Let's take a look at those underrated sides and grade their possible value on ATS heat meter:
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Bulldogs backdoored bettors by outscoring Oklahoma 13-7 in the fourth quarter after the game was long over in Week 1’s loss to the Sooners. They were big underdogs in Week 2 against Louisiana-Lafayette but won out right by 28 points.
Next Game: at North Texas (-3.5) Thursday
The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games but just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall. North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Mean Green got rocked by 31 points at Texas and then turned around and destroyed SMU by 37. Neither of these teams has shown any sort of consistency through two weeks.
ATS heat meter: Mild
Hawaii Warriors (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Hawaii has two close losses to Pac-12 opponents. The Warriors played Washington close throughout and scored the only points of the second half in Week 1. They rallied furiously in the fourth quarter and covered the spread with just 1:35 left in the game versus Oregon State in Week 2.
Next game: vs. Northern Iowa (-5) Saturday
Northern Iowa’s only game was a close loss to in-state rival Iowa. Travel will factor into the game as the Panthers have a 15-hour trip and the game also kicks off at 6 p.m. local time/midnight ET (which would be 11 p.m. in Iowa).
ATS heat meter: Hot
Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Roadrunners beat Houston outright and then hung with Arizona throughout their game and scored in the middle of the fourth quarter to cover the spread.
Next Game: at Oklahoma State (+15) Saturday
The Roadrunners are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall games, 9-1 in their last 10 non-conference games and 8-1 in their last nine road games. The last time they suffered a double-digit loss was to Marshall last season but that same UTSA team also lost to Arizona by 25.
ATS heat meter: Sriracha
UAB Blazers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Blazers beat Troy big in week one and then hung around Mississippi State for the majority of their game. Alabama-Birmingham can put up points, ranked 31st in the nation (41 ppg), which always gives a team chances to covering.
Next game: vs. Alabama A&M (-36) Saturday
This is quite a large spread for a team like UAB but they did beat their only 2013 FCS opponent by 24 and appear to be quite a bit better this season under first-year head coach Bill Clark.
ATS heat meter: Jalapeno
New Mexico State Aggies/UTEP Miners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS/1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
These two 2-0 ATS programs meet on Saturday. New Mexico State beat Cal-Poly with a solid performance in Week 1 and then scored with 15 seconds left to beat (and cover) against Georgia State the following game. UTEP jumped on New Mexico early and held on late and then they went wire-to-wire with Texas Tech.
Next game: UTEP -11 Saturday
UTEP has been the more dependable team so far and they also have playmakers in Aaron Jones and Jameill Showers.
ATS heat meter: Five-alarm
By KEVIN CAUSEY
There are 31 college football teams that are 2-0 ATS in the first two weeks, but just six of those programs have covered as an underdog in both games. Let's take a look at those underrated sides and grade their possible value on ATS heat meter:
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Bulldogs backdoored bettors by outscoring Oklahoma 13-7 in the fourth quarter after the game was long over in Week 1’s loss to the Sooners. They were big underdogs in Week 2 against Louisiana-Lafayette but won out right by 28 points.
Next Game: at North Texas (-3.5) Thursday
The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games but just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall. North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Mean Green got rocked by 31 points at Texas and then turned around and destroyed SMU by 37. Neither of these teams has shown any sort of consistency through two weeks.
ATS heat meter: Mild
Hawaii Warriors (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)
Hawaii has two close losses to Pac-12 opponents. The Warriors played Washington close throughout and scored the only points of the second half in Week 1. They rallied furiously in the fourth quarter and covered the spread with just 1:35 left in the game versus Oregon State in Week 2.
Next game: vs. Northern Iowa (-5) Saturday
Northern Iowa’s only game was a close loss to in-state rival Iowa. Travel will factor into the game as the Panthers have a 15-hour trip and the game also kicks off at 6 p.m. local time/midnight ET (which would be 11 p.m. in Iowa).
ATS heat meter: Hot
Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Roadrunners beat Houston outright and then hung with Arizona throughout their game and scored in the middle of the fourth quarter to cover the spread.
Next Game: at Oklahoma State (+15) Saturday
The Roadrunners are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall games, 9-1 in their last 10 non-conference games and 8-1 in their last nine road games. The last time they suffered a double-digit loss was to Marshall last season but that same UTSA team also lost to Arizona by 25.
ATS heat meter: Sriracha
UAB Blazers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
The Blazers beat Troy big in week one and then hung around Mississippi State for the majority of their game. Alabama-Birmingham can put up points, ranked 31st in the nation (41 ppg), which always gives a team chances to covering.
Next game: vs. Alabama A&M (-36) Saturday
This is quite a large spread for a team like UAB but they did beat their only 2013 FCS opponent by 24 and appear to be quite a bit better this season under first-year head coach Bill Clark.
ATS heat meter: Jalapeno
New Mexico State Aggies/UTEP Miners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS/1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)
These two 2-0 ATS programs meet on Saturday. New Mexico State beat Cal-Poly with a solid performance in Week 1 and then scored with 15 seconds left to beat (and cover) against Georgia State the following game. UTEP jumped on New Mexico early and held on late and then they went wire-to-wire with Texas Tech.
Next game: UTEP -11 Saturday
UTEP has been the more dependable team so far and they also have playmakers in Aaron Jones and Jameill Showers.
ATS heat meter: Five-alarm
See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Lookahead spot
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start and dreams of SEC grandeur are starting to creep in. The Bulldogs have their first taste of SEC competition in Week 4, making the trip to Death Valley to play the LSU Tigers. But before MSU tests its conference might, it travels to little ole South Alabama as a 14.5-point favorite in Week 3.
The Bulldogs rolled over Southern Mississippi but found themselves up against it versus UAB last weekend. Mississippi State was actually out-gained 548-516 by the Blazers, and can’t afford to look past the jacked-up Jaguars – and to LSU - this weekend.
South Alabama, which defeated Kent State 23-13 as a 2-point favorite in Week 1, enjoyed a bye week last Saturday and has been preparing for MSU since the ink dried on the schedule. Hell, there’s a billboard on Interstate-65 outside of Mobile simply stating “It’s Here, Sept. 13, 2014.” Oddsmakers opened MSU as 15.5-point road chalk but that has since been trimmed to 14.5, with that pesky half-point hook standing strong.
Letdown spot
The USC Trojans jumped into the national title conversion with a hard-fought 13-10 victory as 3-point road underdogs at Stanford in Week 2, going from 20/1 to 12/1 to win the college football championship. The Trojans’ emotions are running high after Andre Heidari’s field goal gave USC the edge late in the fourth quarter.
Southern Cal will have to bottle that excitement during a cross-country plane ride, traveling all the way to the East Coast for a date with Boston College Saturday. The Eagles are getting a lofty 17.5 points from the oddsmakers, but a look at the early line moves could give USC backers reason for concern. Books opened Southern Cal as big as a 19.5-point road favorite but have cut that spread down two points as of Tuesday, with early action expecting the Trojans to come out flat.
“I think it’s natural for that to be a concern,” USC head coach Steve Sarkisian told the Orange County Register of a possible letdown in Boston. “As I’ve said all along, whether it’s a rival or not, a conference opponent or not, the way we prepare is what is critical. That shouldn’t change based on the opponent. That being said, I’m still learning this football team.”
Note: USC will be without senior starting LB and team captain Hayes Pullard for the first half Saturday due to suspension.
Schedule spot
Another team making a long road trip this weekend is the Arizona Cardinals. They’re traveling to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff – 10 a.m. in Arizona – with the New York Giants on a short week, coming off a 18-17 win over San Diego (failed to cover -3) on Monday Night Football.
Arizona will not only deal with the long flight and time change but the early forecast is calling for un-desert like conditions in the Meadowlands Sunday. There’s a low pressure system projected to hit the East Coast this weekend and it brings wind and rain with it. The Cardinals are also 0-3 ATS in their last three contests coming off a Monday nighter.
The Giants need all the help they can get. New York’s new offense sputtered versus Detroit in Week 1, with Eli Manning throwing for just 163 yards and two interceptions Monday. Books opened the Giants as 3-point favorites but that spread is stinking like a stone. As of Tuesday afternoon, New York can be had as low as -1 and will be an underdog by the time Sunday rolls around.
By JASON LOGAN
Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.
Lookahead spot
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are off to a 2-0 start and dreams of SEC grandeur are starting to creep in. The Bulldogs have their first taste of SEC competition in Week 4, making the trip to Death Valley to play the LSU Tigers. But before MSU tests its conference might, it travels to little ole South Alabama as a 14.5-point favorite in Week 3.
The Bulldogs rolled over Southern Mississippi but found themselves up against it versus UAB last weekend. Mississippi State was actually out-gained 548-516 by the Blazers, and can’t afford to look past the jacked-up Jaguars – and to LSU - this weekend.
South Alabama, which defeated Kent State 23-13 as a 2-point favorite in Week 1, enjoyed a bye week last Saturday and has been preparing for MSU since the ink dried on the schedule. Hell, there’s a billboard on Interstate-65 outside of Mobile simply stating “It’s Here, Sept. 13, 2014.” Oddsmakers opened MSU as 15.5-point road chalk but that has since been trimmed to 14.5, with that pesky half-point hook standing strong.
Letdown spot
The USC Trojans jumped into the national title conversion with a hard-fought 13-10 victory as 3-point road underdogs at Stanford in Week 2, going from 20/1 to 12/1 to win the college football championship. The Trojans’ emotions are running high after Andre Heidari’s field goal gave USC the edge late in the fourth quarter.
Southern Cal will have to bottle that excitement during a cross-country plane ride, traveling all the way to the East Coast for a date with Boston College Saturday. The Eagles are getting a lofty 17.5 points from the oddsmakers, but a look at the early line moves could give USC backers reason for concern. Books opened Southern Cal as big as a 19.5-point road favorite but have cut that spread down two points as of Tuesday, with early action expecting the Trojans to come out flat.
“I think it’s natural for that to be a concern,” USC head coach Steve Sarkisian told the Orange County Register of a possible letdown in Boston. “As I’ve said all along, whether it’s a rival or not, a conference opponent or not, the way we prepare is what is critical. That shouldn’t change based on the opponent. That being said, I’m still learning this football team.”
Note: USC will be without senior starting LB and team captain Hayes Pullard for the first half Saturday due to suspension.
Schedule spot
Another team making a long road trip this weekend is the Arizona Cardinals. They’re traveling to New Jersey for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff – 10 a.m. in Arizona – with the New York Giants on a short week, coming off a 18-17 win over San Diego (failed to cover -3) on Monday Night Football.
Arizona will not only deal with the long flight and time change but the early forecast is calling for un-desert like conditions in the Meadowlands Sunday. There’s a low pressure system projected to hit the East Coast this weekend and it brings wind and rain with it. The Cardinals are also 0-3 ATS in their last three contests coming off a Monday nighter.
The Giants need all the help they can get. New York’s new offense sputtered versus Detroit in Week 1, with Eli Manning throwing for just 163 yards and two interceptions Monday. Books opened the Giants as 3-point favorites but that spread is stinking like a stone. As of Tuesday afternoon, New York can be had as low as -1 and will be an underdog by the time Sunday rolls around.
Essential Week 3 college football betting tidbits
There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 3 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-48)
* The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have proved to be a solid fade to begin the season. They've started the season 0-2 against the spread, including a failure to cover last week as 14.5-point faves against Alcorn State
* The Crimson Tide have a battle brewing at the RG position between Leon Brown and Alphonse Taylor, but coach Nick Saban is not tipping his hand. "Hopefully someone is going to give us the kind of performance at that position that we need to be able to play well in the offensive line with the rest of the group, and I think that’s improving.”
Tennessee Volunteers at (3) Oklahoma Sooners (-20.5)
* Vol's coach Butch Jones is entering the matchup with the Sooners with realistic expectations. "There's a difference between believing you're going to win, earning the right to win and hoping to win. We've hoped to win too much around here in the past."
* If Sooners co-offensive coordinator Jay Norvell gets his way, the Vols may be seeing a lot of Sterling Shepard. “I said, ‘Ryan (Broyles) never came out. Ryan was in there every snap.’ So there’s an added bit of conditioning he’s got to take on..."
Wyoming Cowboys at (4) Oregon Ducks (-43)
* The Cowboys have offered almost no underdog value by going an abysmal 1-7 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
* The Ducks have been battling injuries on their offensive line this season. With Tyler Johnson already gone for the season, freshman RT Andre Yruretagoyena sustained an injury that kept him out of the second half against Michigan State.
(6) Georgia Bulldogs at (23) South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5)
* The Bulldogs are taking a unique approach to prepare for the crown noise Saturday. Instead of the more conventional playing loud music over stadium speakers, the coaching staff are using smaller speakers and having Huston Mason whisper his play calls in hopes to have players focus more on the QB.
* Injured WR Pharoh Cooper practiced for the Gamecocks Thursday after missing Wednesday and is currently expected to play.
(7) Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls (+34.5)
* It seems as though Baylor will have Bryce Petty back in the lineup after taking first team reps all week long. However, receivers Antwan Goodwin and Corey Coleman are unlikely to play.
* To prepare for the hig tempo offense of Baylor, the Bulls had their scout team run plays every 15 seconds against their defense.
Rice Owls at (8) Texas A&M Aggies (-31.5)
* Rice has not packed their defense when they go traveling. In their last 51 road games the over has hit 72 percent of the time.
* Kenny Hill could write his name in the Aggies record books Saturday. With 206 passing yards, Hill will become the first Aggie to amass 1,000 passing yards in three games.
UL Monroe Warhawks at (9) LSU Tigers (-31)
* The Warhawks have been surprisingly profitable on the road going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
* LSU has been having a rough time with their offensive line. Through the first two games the boys in the trenches have allowed four sacks and 12 tackles of a loss.
(10) USC Trojans at Boston College Eagles (+17)
* The coin flip will see some different faces for the Trojans Saturday. Josh Shaw and Hayes Pullard, team captains, are both not going to be around to start the game. Shaw is still serving a suspension after lying about rescuing his drowning nephew and Pullard was ejected in last weeks game and will miss the first half.
* Boston College coach Steve Addazio is planning on fielding a youthful team. “They’re our future and because we have voids, we have to do that. We have talented freshmen," Addazio said.
Purdue Boilermakers at (11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-27.5)
* Though Danny Etling is officially listed as the starter, Purdue has two sophomore QB's that could make an impact. Etling and backup Austin Appleby have combined for a 93.4 QB rating.
* Everett Golson has 521 passing yards with five touchdowns and no turnovers through his first two games for Notre Dame.
(12) UCLA Bruins at Texas Longhorns (+7)
* Defensively the Bruins are struggling ranking 100th in passing yards allowed while giving up 70 more yards per game that they did last year at this time.
* Texas is tied for fourth among FBS schools with 10 sacks. Hundley has been sacked 97 times since the start of the 2012 season.
(14) Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes (+14.5)
* The Sun Devils have had little problem dispatching their opponent this week, taking the last five against the spread.
* The Buffaloes run game has been spotty, but it has allowed Shay Fields to tally more receptions (14) through two games than anyone in program history.
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at (15) Ole Miss Rebels (-27.5)
* Though the team has been disappointed in his play, Ole Miss will be sticking with Fahn Cooper at RT. The junior college transfer committed one holding penalty and two false starts against Vanderbilt.
* If the Ragin' Cajuns expect to win they will need to reverse history. UL Lafayette is 0-37 against SEC opponents all-time.
Army Black Knights at (16) Stanford Cardinals (-28)
* Army has not been able to put a consistent effort up for bettors, going a lowly 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win
* The Cardinals have been abysmal in the red zone this season. Stanford ranks 125th in red-zone scoring efficiency going five for 11 with only three TDs.
Kent State Golden Flashes at (18) Ohio State Buckeyes (-32)
* The Big Ten and Kent State have not meshed well for the Golden Flashes. Kent State has failed to cover the spread in their last six against the conference.
* Urban Meyer seems to be losing his patience with the defense. "Enough with getting close," the coach said on a weekly call-in show. "It's time to be a great defense."
East Carolina Pirates at (19) Virginia Tech Hokies (-10)
* Looking for an under the radar play? The Pirates are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a S.U. loss.
* Virginia Tech has won the last four contests against the Pirates, allowing 10 or fewer points three times over that stretch.
(21) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Fresno State Bulldogs (+10.5)
* The Bulldogs trailed by two in the fourth quarter of that last encounter before Ameer Abdullah's 100-yard kick return swayed the momentum for the Cornhuskers in a 42-29 victory.
* If you're looking for a longshot, you might want to look elsewhere. Fresno State has lost 17 straight games against Top 25 opponents.
Central Florida Knights at (22) Missouri Tigers (-10)
* The Knights have certainly developed a reputation for begin a giant-killer. The Knights are aiming for their third straight win against a ranked opponent.
* Mizzou has kept the offensive ball rolling for bettors going 8-0 ATS in their last eight after accumulating more than 450 yards off offense in their previous game.
There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 3 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-48)
* The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have proved to be a solid fade to begin the season. They've started the season 0-2 against the spread, including a failure to cover last week as 14.5-point faves against Alcorn State
* The Crimson Tide have a battle brewing at the RG position between Leon Brown and Alphonse Taylor, but coach Nick Saban is not tipping his hand. "Hopefully someone is going to give us the kind of performance at that position that we need to be able to play well in the offensive line with the rest of the group, and I think that’s improving.”
Tennessee Volunteers at (3) Oklahoma Sooners (-20.5)
* Vol's coach Butch Jones is entering the matchup with the Sooners with realistic expectations. "There's a difference between believing you're going to win, earning the right to win and hoping to win. We've hoped to win too much around here in the past."
* If Sooners co-offensive coordinator Jay Norvell gets his way, the Vols may be seeing a lot of Sterling Shepard. “I said, ‘Ryan (Broyles) never came out. Ryan was in there every snap.’ So there’s an added bit of conditioning he’s got to take on..."
Wyoming Cowboys at (4) Oregon Ducks (-43)
* The Cowboys have offered almost no underdog value by going an abysmal 1-7 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
* The Ducks have been battling injuries on their offensive line this season. With Tyler Johnson already gone for the season, freshman RT Andre Yruretagoyena sustained an injury that kept him out of the second half against Michigan State.
(6) Georgia Bulldogs at (23) South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5)
* The Bulldogs are taking a unique approach to prepare for the crown noise Saturday. Instead of the more conventional playing loud music over stadium speakers, the coaching staff are using smaller speakers and having Huston Mason whisper his play calls in hopes to have players focus more on the QB.
* Injured WR Pharoh Cooper practiced for the Gamecocks Thursday after missing Wednesday and is currently expected to play.
(7) Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls (+34.5)
* It seems as though Baylor will have Bryce Petty back in the lineup after taking first team reps all week long. However, receivers Antwan Goodwin and Corey Coleman are unlikely to play.
* To prepare for the hig tempo offense of Baylor, the Bulls had their scout team run plays every 15 seconds against their defense.
Rice Owls at (8) Texas A&M Aggies (-31.5)
* Rice has not packed their defense when they go traveling. In their last 51 road games the over has hit 72 percent of the time.
* Kenny Hill could write his name in the Aggies record books Saturday. With 206 passing yards, Hill will become the first Aggie to amass 1,000 passing yards in three games.
UL Monroe Warhawks at (9) LSU Tigers (-31)
* The Warhawks have been surprisingly profitable on the road going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.
* LSU has been having a rough time with their offensive line. Through the first two games the boys in the trenches have allowed four sacks and 12 tackles of a loss.
(10) USC Trojans at Boston College Eagles (+17)
* The coin flip will see some different faces for the Trojans Saturday. Josh Shaw and Hayes Pullard, team captains, are both not going to be around to start the game. Shaw is still serving a suspension after lying about rescuing his drowning nephew and Pullard was ejected in last weeks game and will miss the first half.
* Boston College coach Steve Addazio is planning on fielding a youthful team. “They’re our future and because we have voids, we have to do that. We have talented freshmen," Addazio said.
Purdue Boilermakers at (11) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-27.5)
* Though Danny Etling is officially listed as the starter, Purdue has two sophomore QB's that could make an impact. Etling and backup Austin Appleby have combined for a 93.4 QB rating.
* Everett Golson has 521 passing yards with five touchdowns and no turnovers through his first two games for Notre Dame.
(12) UCLA Bruins at Texas Longhorns (+7)
* Defensively the Bruins are struggling ranking 100th in passing yards allowed while giving up 70 more yards per game that they did last year at this time.
* Texas is tied for fourth among FBS schools with 10 sacks. Hundley has been sacked 97 times since the start of the 2012 season.
(14) Arizona State Sun Devils at Colorado Buffaloes (+14.5)
* The Sun Devils have had little problem dispatching their opponent this week, taking the last five against the spread.
* The Buffaloes run game has been spotty, but it has allowed Shay Fields to tally more receptions (14) through two games than anyone in program history.
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at (15) Ole Miss Rebels (-27.5)
* Though the team has been disappointed in his play, Ole Miss will be sticking with Fahn Cooper at RT. The junior college transfer committed one holding penalty and two false starts against Vanderbilt.
* If the Ragin' Cajuns expect to win they will need to reverse history. UL Lafayette is 0-37 against SEC opponents all-time.
Army Black Knights at (16) Stanford Cardinals (-28)
* Army has not been able to put a consistent effort up for bettors, going a lowly 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win
* The Cardinals have been abysmal in the red zone this season. Stanford ranks 125th in red-zone scoring efficiency going five for 11 with only three TDs.
Kent State Golden Flashes at (18) Ohio State Buckeyes (-32)
* The Big Ten and Kent State have not meshed well for the Golden Flashes. Kent State has failed to cover the spread in their last six against the conference.
* Urban Meyer seems to be losing his patience with the defense. "Enough with getting close," the coach said on a weekly call-in show. "It's time to be a great defense."
East Carolina Pirates at (19) Virginia Tech Hokies (-10)
* Looking for an under the radar play? The Pirates are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 following a S.U. loss.
* Virginia Tech has won the last four contests against the Pirates, allowing 10 or fewer points three times over that stretch.
(21) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Fresno State Bulldogs (+10.5)
* The Bulldogs trailed by two in the fourth quarter of that last encounter before Ameer Abdullah's 100-yard kick return swayed the momentum for the Cornhuskers in a 42-29 victory.
* If you're looking for a longshot, you might want to look elsewhere. Fresno State has lost 17 straight games against Top 25 opponents.
Central Florida Knights at (22) Missouri Tigers (-10)
* The Knights have certainly developed a reputation for begin a giant-killer. The Knights are aiming for their third straight win against a ranked opponent.
* Mizzou has kept the offensive ball rolling for bettors going 8-0 ATS in their last eight after accumulating more than 450 yards off offense in their previous game.
Game of the Day: Georgia at South Carolina
Georgia Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5, 59.5)
Georgia hasn't scored more than 20 points at Williams-Brice Stadium in 20 years, but the Bulldogs haven't always had Todd Gurley running the ball. The Heisman Trophy candidate leads the sixth-ranked Bulldogs into a key SEC East road contest against No. 23 South Carolina on Saturday. The Gamecocks have won the past two meetings at Williams-Brice — and three of the past four matchups overall — but have never won three straight at home against the Bulldogs.
It's the SEC opener for Georgia, which opened the season with an impressive 45-21 home win over Clemson and has emerged as the favorite to win the SEC East. "Everybody feels like this could be what decides the division," Georgia coach Mark Richt told reporters. "The reality is we've lost twice to them and won the league. Missouri lost to them (in 2013) and won the league. It's not a guarantee that you're out, but … everyone wants to control their own destiny in this race to get to Atlanta." The Gamecocks already are playing catchup after a season-opening 52-28 loss to Texas A&M on Aug. 28.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Georgia -5.5.
LINE HISTORY: Since opening at South Carolina +6, the line has shifted to +6.5. The total has seen a small decrease from 60.0 to 59.5.
INJURY REPORT: Georgia: SE Malcom Mitchell (Ques-Knee), SE Justin Scott-Wesley (Ques-Knee), SE Jonathon Rumph (Doubt-Hamstring) South Carolina: WR Pharoh Cooper (Ques-Foot), G Brock Stadnik (Ques-Knee)
WEATHER REPORT: There is a of thunderstorms throughout the game with a 65 percent chance of rainfall. At kickoff, wind will be blowing south at around five mph and dying down throughout the remainder of the contest.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This will be by far our biggest bet game of the day, and from all indication our biggest decision of the day. With over 80 percent of the bets and money on the road favorite, we’re going to need South Carolina big. We opened Georgia a solid 6 point favorite and with all the money on the Dawgs, we went from -6 -110, to -6 -115, to -6.5 flat to now -6.5 -115. It’s the first game me and my staff talked about [Friday] morning, contemplating going to 7 and I do believe that unless we see a surge of sharp money on the dog, we’re going to get to Georgia -7 at some point [Friday], or very first thing [Saturday]." Peter Childs .
ABOUT GEORGIA (1-0, 0-0 SEC): The Bulldogs' streak of nine straight games being held to 20 points or fewer at South Carolina seemingly is in jeopardy thanks to Gurley, who racked up conference and national honors after compiling a school-record 293 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns against Clemson. Gurley is capable of being the workhorse and taking pressure off quarterback Hutson Mason, who was an efficient 18-for-26 for 131 yards against Clemson. The defense's debut under new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt was strong, as the Bulldogs held the Tigers scoreless after halftime and allowed only 15 total yards on 22 plays after the break.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (1-1, 0-1): The Gamecocks got star running back Mike Davis going in last week's 33-23 win over East Carolina, as he rushed for 101 yards for his eighth career 100-yard game. That balance is critical to helping quarterback Dylan Thompson settle into his starting role, which he has done nicely thus far, passing for 632 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense is still adjusting to life without No. 1 draft pick Jadeveon Clowney and has struggled against the pass and had a tough time getting off the field on third down.
TRENDS:
*Over is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
*Gamecocks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
*Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 65.8 percent are taking Georgia -6.5 with 55 percent totals bettors taking the over.
Georgia Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks (+6.5, 59.5)
Georgia hasn't scored more than 20 points at Williams-Brice Stadium in 20 years, but the Bulldogs haven't always had Todd Gurley running the ball. The Heisman Trophy candidate leads the sixth-ranked Bulldogs into a key SEC East road contest against No. 23 South Carolina on Saturday. The Gamecocks have won the past two meetings at Williams-Brice — and three of the past four matchups overall — but have never won three straight at home against the Bulldogs.
It's the SEC opener for Georgia, which opened the season with an impressive 45-21 home win over Clemson and has emerged as the favorite to win the SEC East. "Everybody feels like this could be what decides the division," Georgia coach Mark Richt told reporters. "The reality is we've lost twice to them and won the league. Missouri lost to them (in 2013) and won the league. It's not a guarantee that you're out, but … everyone wants to control their own destiny in this race to get to Atlanta." The Gamecocks already are playing catchup after a season-opening 52-28 loss to Texas A&M on Aug. 28.
TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Georgia -5.5.
LINE HISTORY: Since opening at South Carolina +6, the line has shifted to +6.5. The total has seen a small decrease from 60.0 to 59.5.
INJURY REPORT: Georgia: SE Malcom Mitchell (Ques-Knee), SE Justin Scott-Wesley (Ques-Knee), SE Jonathon Rumph (Doubt-Hamstring) South Carolina: WR Pharoh Cooper (Ques-Foot), G Brock Stadnik (Ques-Knee)
WEATHER REPORT: There is a of thunderstorms throughout the game with a 65 percent chance of rainfall. At kickoff, wind will be blowing south at around five mph and dying down throughout the remainder of the contest.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "This will be by far our biggest bet game of the day, and from all indication our biggest decision of the day. With over 80 percent of the bets and money on the road favorite, we’re going to need South Carolina big. We opened Georgia a solid 6 point favorite and with all the money on the Dawgs, we went from -6 -110, to -6 -115, to -6.5 flat to now -6.5 -115. It’s the first game me and my staff talked about [Friday] morning, contemplating going to 7 and I do believe that unless we see a surge of sharp money on the dog, we’re going to get to Georgia -7 at some point [Friday], or very first thing [Saturday]." Peter Childs .
ABOUT GEORGIA (1-0, 0-0 SEC): The Bulldogs' streak of nine straight games being held to 20 points or fewer at South Carolina seemingly is in jeopardy thanks to Gurley, who racked up conference and national honors after compiling a school-record 293 all-purpose yards and four touchdowns against Clemson. Gurley is capable of being the workhorse and taking pressure off quarterback Hutson Mason, who was an efficient 18-for-26 for 131 yards against Clemson. The defense's debut under new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt was strong, as the Bulldogs held the Tigers scoreless after halftime and allowed only 15 total yards on 22 plays after the break.
ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (1-1, 0-1): The Gamecocks got star running back Mike Davis going in last week's 33-23 win over East Carolina, as he rushed for 101 yards for his eighth career 100-yard game. That balance is critical to helping quarterback Dylan Thompson settle into his starting role, which he has done nicely thus far, passing for 632 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The defense is still adjusting to life without No. 1 draft pick Jadeveon Clowney and has struggled against the pass and had a tough time getting off the field on third down.
TRENDS:
*Over is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
*Gamecocks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS loss.
*Under is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
*Bulldogs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 65.8 percent are taking Georgia -6.5 with 55 percent totals bettors taking the over.
Sun Belt, C-USA among best ATS conferences, AAC the worst
By JASON LOGAN
The most talented teams don’t always make for the best bets.
How else could you explain mid-major conferences like the Sun Belt and Conference USA boasting a 68 percent ATS success rate through the first two weeks of the season, while power leagues like the AAC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 continue to burn bettors?
The Sun Belt (13-6 combined ATS record amongst members) and C-USA (17-8 ATS) each boast a 68 percent success rate against the spread heading into Week 3, despite ranking among the weakest conferences in college football.
The Sun Belt boasts three undefeated ATS teams at 2-0 ATS: New Mexico State, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern. The C-USA, which has 13 members compared to the Sun Belt’s 11, has six perfect 2-0 ATS teams: UAB, FIU, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, and Texas-San Antonio.
The only group with a combined ATS record better than those two mid-majors is the four-team stable of Independent programs not confined by a conference, which have gone combined 6-1 ATS (86 percent) in the first two weeks of the schedule. Navy has the lone blemish on the Independents’ record, failing to cover as a 13.5-point underdog to Ohio State in Week 1.
In fact, the only other conference to show a profit during that span is the all-mighty SEC. Its members are 16-10 ATS (62 percent) in the opening 14 days of football – likely a grim result for bookmakers who take a ton of action on SEC schools every time they face a non-conference opponent.
The biggest money pit in college football is the still new-car smell AAC, whose members have only covered in 32 percent of their games this year. American Athletic Conference programs are just 7-13 ATS, with UConn, Houston, SMU and Tulane bringing up the rear at 0-2 ATS.
The Mid-American Conference (10-15 ATS, 40 percent), Big Ten (11-16 ATS, 41 percent), Mountain West (10-14 ATS, 42 percent), Pac-12 (10-14 ATS, 42 percent), ACC (11-15 ATS, 42 percent), and Big 12 (9-9 ATS, 50 percent) round out the bottom of the ATS rankings.
By JASON LOGAN
The most talented teams don’t always make for the best bets.
How else could you explain mid-major conferences like the Sun Belt and Conference USA boasting a 68 percent ATS success rate through the first two weeks of the season, while power leagues like the AAC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 continue to burn bettors?
The Sun Belt (13-6 combined ATS record amongst members) and C-USA (17-8 ATS) each boast a 68 percent success rate against the spread heading into Week 3, despite ranking among the weakest conferences in college football.
The Sun Belt boasts three undefeated ATS teams at 2-0 ATS: New Mexico State, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern. The C-USA, which has 13 members compared to the Sun Belt’s 11, has six perfect 2-0 ATS teams: UAB, FIU, Middle Tennessee, UTEP, Louisiana Tech, and Texas-San Antonio.
The only group with a combined ATS record better than those two mid-majors is the four-team stable of Independent programs not confined by a conference, which have gone combined 6-1 ATS (86 percent) in the first two weeks of the schedule. Navy has the lone blemish on the Independents’ record, failing to cover as a 13.5-point underdog to Ohio State in Week 1.
In fact, the only other conference to show a profit during that span is the all-mighty SEC. Its members are 16-10 ATS (62 percent) in the opening 14 days of football – likely a grim result for bookmakers who take a ton of action on SEC schools every time they face a non-conference opponent.
The biggest money pit in college football is the still new-car smell AAC, whose members have only covered in 32 percent of their games this year. American Athletic Conference programs are just 7-13 ATS, with UConn, Houston, SMU and Tulane bringing up the rear at 0-2 ATS.
The Mid-American Conference (10-15 ATS, 40 percent), Big Ten (11-16 ATS, 41 percent), Mountain West (10-14 ATS, 42 percent), Pac-12 (10-14 ATS, 42 percent), ACC (11-15 ATS, 42 percent), and Big 12 (9-9 ATS, 50 percent) round out the bottom of the ATS rankings.
Big Ten Report - Week 3
By ASA
GAME OF THE WEEK
Penn State (-3.5) at Rutgers - 8:00 p.m. ET
PSU & Rutgers open up B1G conference play on Saturday in Rutgers. For the Scarlet Knights, it's their first conference game as a member of the conference. Rutgers is 2-0 heading into this week with wins over Washington State and FCS Howard. The Knights are led by QB Nova (31-of-46 for 563 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) and RB James (216 rush yards on 5.1 YPC with 4 TD). Nova, James, and the rest of this offense will have their first difficult test against PSU's defense; a unit that ranks 4th against the run, 15th in overall defense, and 25th in scoring defense. Rutgers' defensive numbers aren't very good at this point in the season after allowing 538 yards to Washington State and 427 to FCS Howard. The Knights will have to clean things up on defense as PSU's QB Hackenberg is on his way to a breakout campaign. The sophomore already has 773 pass yards (65.1%) with 4 TD & 4 INT. The Nittany Lions were able to avoid a letdown performance in a 21-3 win over Akron after coming home from a week one game in Dublin. Motivation won't be lacking for either side as we expect Rutgers to be fired up for their first home conference game in a primetime setting. On the other side, PSU got some good news this week that the NCAA released the ban on postseason play - meaning the Nittany Lions will be eligible for a bowl this year. Not that the Nittany Lions weren't playing with high-intensity before, but that news certainly won't hurt the motivation going forward. Penn State is 15-8 SU in the last 23 Big Ten road games, but just 1-4 SU & ATS in the last 5. PSU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Rutgers, but the last meeting was in 1995. Rutgers is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine home games.
BEST OF THE REST
Iowa (-13.5) vs. Iowa State - 3:30 p.m. ET
Is it time to be concerned about performance of the Hawkeyes? They knew they were going to get a tough battle from FCS Northern Iowa in week one, but still only escaped with an eight-point win. Then last week they barely squeaked by at home against Ball State. QB Rudock threw two TD in the final 2:52 to give Iowa the 17-13 win. Arguably the most concerning aspect of Iowa's season so far is the inability to effectively run the ball. The Hawks rank 97th in rushing with just 132 YPG. Things won't get any easier as star LT, and likely top draft pick, Brandon Scherff is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Jake Rudock has posted solid numbers (572 yards on 68.8% with 4 TD and 0 INT), but Iowa needs to run it better. Solid defense and adequate QB play can take this team only so far. As ordinary as Iowa has been so far, they're in a much better position than rival Iowa State. ISU is already 0-2 after losses to FCS North Dakota State and conference rival Kansas State. The offense has been abysmal. QB Richardson has just 1 TD and 3 INT while top RB Wimberly has just 75 yards on 23 carries. They rank near the bottom of every major offensive statistical category. The defensive unit hasn't been much better as the Cyclones rank 121st against the rush, 68th against the pass, 110th in total yards allowed, and 100th in PPG allowed. This rivalry is split 7-7 since 2000 and Iowa State is 10-4 ATS over that span. Nine of those 14 matchups have been decided by 10 points or less, including three straight meetings by a total of just 12 points. Iowa is 0-2 ATS this season, failing to cover as a double-digit favorite in both of its games. ISU is 0-2 SU, but covered as a double-digit underdog against a solid Kansas State team last week.
Minnesota (+14) at TCU - 4:00 p.m. ET
Minnesota will take a big step up in competition this week as they visit TCU after home dates with FCS Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State. Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner sprained his MCL against MTSU last week and his status remains uncertain. Leidner's strength is his ability to run from the QB position; if this sprain has a negative effect on his rushing ability, expect the Gophers to go with backup QB Chris Streveler. Streveler, the redshirt freshman, has thrown one pass in his career. Minnesota's strength is in the rushing attack. David Cobb rushed for 220 yards in last week's win over MTSU and the Gophers now rank 30th in rush YPG through two weeks. Expect TCU to stack the box this weekend in an attempt to make the Gophers beat them through the air. TCU had last week off after a blowout win over FCS Samford in week one. The Horned Frogs wracked up a +412 yard advantage and +24 first downs in the 48-14 blowout win. TCU returned 16 starters from last year's squad and this defense has the potential to be really, really good. Offensively QB Boykin leads the way along with a stable of solid running backs and experienced receivers. They'll give Minnesota's defense - which has looked vulnerable - their toughest test of the season to date. Dating back to 2007, the Gophers are 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10-points or more - includes a 13-7 ATS record on the road. Minnesota is 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in the last 16 road openers. TCU is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 home games and just 0-3 ATS since 2004 against Big Ten squads.
Maryland (-3) vs. West Virginia - 12:00 p.m. ET
Maryland may have switched conferences, but their rivalry with West Virginia still stands strong. The Terps ended a seven-game losing streak to the Mountaineers with last year's 37-0 shutout victory. The 37-point margin of victory was the largest in this series since 1951! Maryland's 2013 season unraveled after that win, but they'll look to repeat the formula with another win over West Virginia on Saturday. The Terps had a closer-than-expected matchup with South Florida last week. They used a blocked punt return for TD in the 4th quarter to propel them to a seven-point victory - failing to cover as the 11-point favorite. Maryland managed just 116 rush yards on 2.9 YPC and they turned the ball over six times; but credit to the defense for holding USF's offense down the stretch and getting the win on the road. QB C.J. Brown has had a rough-go of it so far in 2014. He's completing just 53.8% with 3 TD and 2 INT despite having one of the top WR corps to throw to. Brown will have to clean up his game as the competition level goes up in this rivalry matchup with WVU. West Virginia wasn't supposed to stick with Alabama in week one, but the Mountaineers made a ball-game of it, never trailing by more than 10 points and cutting the lead to seven points in the 4th quarter. There was no hangover in week two as WVU trounced FCS Towson 54-0. QB Clint Trickett leads the way in this explosive offense. Trickett has 713 pass yards on 75.3% completions with 3 TD and 0 INT so far. He spreads the wealth nicely as three receivers already have 10 catches. Trickett didn't play in last year's blowout loss to Maryland, but this offense will be motivated to make some noise after the Terps held them scoreless. The Terps are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings, going 0-3 SU & ATS at home over that span (-11.6 PPG). Maryland is 9-22 ATS in the last 29 as a home favorite. West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 as a road underdog.
Illinois (+14.5) at Washington - 4:00 p.m. ET
Credit the Illini for coming from behind yet again to get a win; but needing to come-from-behind in two straight weeks at home against FCS Youngstown State and Western Kentucky is a bit concerning. Wes Lunt continues to put up huge numbers and appears to be a strong fit for Bill Cubit's offense. Lunt now has 741 yards (67%) with 7 TD and just 1 INT. Lunt has had to be "the man" in the offense since the rushing attack isn't making a huge impact. RB's Ferguson & Young have combined to rush for 160 yards and 2 TD on 48 carries - a measly 3.3 YPC. Another concern has to be the performance of the defense. They allowed 400 yards to WKU last week and now rank 73rd in yards allowed and 72nd in points allowed through two weeks. This week Illinois goes on the road for the first time in 2014 to take on a fellow team that has had two uninspiring performances. Washington barely escaped with a win in a trip to Hawaii in week one and had to battle FCS Eastern Washington to win a shootout, 59-52. Eastern Washington tallied an astonishing 573 yards and 35 first downs against the Huskies and their QB Adams threw 7 TD! If an FCS QB can do that to Washington, they have to be extremely concerned about what Illinois' Lunt will do this week. Washington ranks near the bottom of every major defensive category so far. That will need to be cleaned up as UW's offense isn't well-equipped to win shootouts. The Huskies have run the ball with success (265 YPG with eight rush TD) but QB's Miles & Lindquist have combined to comlete just 24-of-50 passes for 342 yards and 2 TD. Illinois has revenge on its mind after a 10-point loss to the Huskies last September. The 10-point margin actually should have been larger as Washington was +288 yards and +13 first downs - but -2 in TO's, allowing Illinois to keep it rather close. The Illini have lost 11 of their last 12 road/neutral openers with the average loss by 17 PPG. Washington is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as a double-digit favorite while Illinois is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 as a double-digit underdog.
Michigan (-31) vs. Miami (OH) - 3:30 p.m. ET
The good news for Michigan is that it can't get much worse than what happened last week. The Wolverines were shutout for the first time since 1984 and it came at the hands of their bitter rival, Notre Dame, in the final scheduled game of the series. Michigan didn't get much going on offense, rushing for just 100 yards on 2.9 YPC and tossing for 189. They turned the ball over four times to Notre Dame's zero, and the defense was picked apart by ND's QB Golson. The only positive to take from that game was that Michigan's run defense held ND to just 54 rush yards on 1.7 YPC. The Wolverines will have to avoid a letdown after such a meaningful game last week, but that shouldn't be too difficult at home against Miami of Ohio, who has dropped 18 consecutive games. Miami showed some promise in a week one matchup against a good Marshall team. The Hawks were down by eight points at the end of the 3rd quarter before losing by 15 (covered as the 24-point underdog). Things didn't look nearly as promising in last week's home loss to FCS Eastern Kentucky. Miami turned the ball over six times and managed just 10 points against the FCS foe. QB Andrew Hendrix, the graduate transfer from ND, has a strong arm and already has 677 pass yards through two weeks. Michigan is 5-0 SU vs. Miami (last game was in 2008) and 33-1 SU vs. the MAC conference. Michigan is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite of 25 points or more. The Wolves are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 game at The Big House.
Ohio State (-32) vs. Kent State - 12:00 p.m. ET
Ohio State, like Michigan, will try to bounce back from a disheartening loss. The Buckeyes lost a regular season game for the first time under head coach Urban Meyer; and their first home loss since 2011. Braxton Millers absence under center was truly felt last week as redshirt freshman JT Barrett really struggled against Virginia Tech. VA Tech stacked the box and shut down OSU's rushing attack (108 yards on 2.7 YPC) and Barrett couldn't take advantage. Barrett completed just 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT and was inefficient on third down (4-of-16 conversions). The offensive line that replaced four starters from 2013 appeared overmatched by the Hokies and the defense wasn't pretty either. The Buckeyes will have a chance to get right this week against Kent State. Things are looking bleak for Kent State. The Golden Flashes have dropped both games so far this season, losing to Ohio and South Alabama. (0-2 ATS). QB Reardon has 4 TD and just 1 INT, but he has been inefficient (58%) and mild (5.8 yards per attempt). KSU is averaging just 47.5 rush yards per game and they've scored just 4 TD through two games. The Golden Flashes are 2-23-1 in the last 26 road openers including six straight losses by an average of 28 PPG. OSU has won both meetings with Kent State since 2000, winning by 34 points in 2002 and 45 points in 2007. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a favorite of 25 points or more.
Nebraska (-10) at Fresno State - 10:30 p.m. ET
The Huskers avoided a near-disaster against FCS McNeese State last week. With the game tied at 24 with just seconds remaining, the Huskers and Cowboys appeared to be headed for overtime. Star RB Ameer Abdullah took a pass 58 yards for a touchdown with 20 seconds left on the clock, giving Nebraska the seven-point win. The Huskers we saw in week one were vastly superior to the version we saw against FCS McNeese State last week. Which version will get on the plane to Fresno State? QB Armstrong was electric on the ground last week (131 yards on 11 carries) but was a bit inefficient through the air (16-of-31 with 2 TD and 1 INT). Abdullah couldn't get going on the ground as he tallied just 54 rush yards on 17 carries. Defensively the Huskers were a bit too lenient against their FCS foe, allowing 338 yards and 24 points while allowing the Cowboys to hold the ball for +9 minutes TOP. Fresno State, now 0-2, is desperate for a win and playing at home for the first time - Nebraska has to show up ready for a fight. FSU has looked outmatched in back-to-back road losses to Pac-12 members, USC (L 13-52) & Utah (L 27-59). The Bulldogs lost a lot of star power from 2013's team and nothing has gone right so far in 2014. QB's Connette and Burrell have been inefficient (55%) while combining to throw 3 TD and 4 INT. The defense has been absolutely atrocious. FSU is allowing 613.5 YPG (126th) and 55.5 PPG (127th) through two games. The Bulldogs are hoping that a return home, where they are 13-0 the past two years, gets them back on the right track. The only prior meeting between these two was in 2011. Fresno visited Nebraska as a 28-point underdog. They trailed 26-28 late before two late touchdowns put the game away for the Huskers (FSU cover). Nebraska is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a road favorite of 10 points or more.
Purdue (+28.5) at Notre Dame - 7:30 p.m. ET
What a difference a week makes. A week after Purdue started the season on a strong note, beating Western Michigan by nine and notching 43 points in the process, Purdue came crashing back down with a 17-point blowout loss at home to Central Michigan. CMU moved the ball with relative ease against Purdue, tallying 333 yards and 19 first downs despite playing conservative most of the 2nd half. Purdue QB Etling did not have a good day, starting with an INT that CMU returned for a touchdown just five minutes into the game. Etling was replaced by sophomore Austin Appelby, who didn't exactly fare well himself. Coaches have opened up the competition and a starter for this week has not been named. Things will get tougher for the Boilermakers as they travel to South Bend this Saturday. They'll hope to catch Notre Dame in a letdown spot after the Irish put a beat-down on rival Michigan last weekend. ND QB Golson completed 23-of-34 passes for 226 yards with 3 TD and no INT against Michigan while ND's defense dominated, forcing three turnovers and becoming the first team to shutout the Wolverines since 1984. Notre Dame has given up a total of 17 points through two weeks of play - bad news for a Purdue team that has huge questions on offense. Notre Dame has won 23 of the past 28 games in this series, including six straight. The Boilers have covered the past two seasons, however, losing by just three points in 2012 (+14) and seven points in 2013 (+18). Notre Dame is just 4-12 ATS in the last 16 as a favorite of 27 points or more. Purdue is just 7-19 SU and 8-16-1 ATS in its last 26 road openers. The Boilers are also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 as an underdog of 20 points or more.
Indiana (+6) at Bowling Green - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Hoosiers were off last week after dismantling FCS Indiana State in week one. Indiana has one of the more underrated offensive line units in the nation and they used it to perfection against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards (6.6 YPC) and four scores. RB's Coleman and Roberts combined for 376 of those rush yards and QB Sudfeld only had to attempt 18 passes. If Indiana has successfully instilled a rushing presence into its offensive arsenal - they could be a serious sleeper in the Big Ten. The defense also had a promising effort, albeit against an FCS program, as it allowed just 170 total yards and 10 first downs. This week they travel to Bowling Green for their first road trip of the season. Bowling Green had a rough start to the season. The Falcons were blown out by Western Kentucky in week one and lost starting QB Matt Johnson to a season-ending hip injury in the process. They regrouped for a bounce back 48-7 win over FCS VMI last week. VMI was able to tally 418 yards and 24 first downs while controlling the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Bowling Green had three special teams touchdowns and forced three VMI turnovers. BG QB Knapke had a good starting debut (22-of-31 for 237 yards) while the rushing attack churned out 260 rush yards on 7.0 YPC. Bowling Green has dropped three straight games against Big Ten squads (since 2008), losing by an average of 33.6 PPG. Indiana is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 as a road underdog.
Michigan State - Bye Week
For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is off this week before hosting Eastern Michigan next Saturday.
Wisconsin - Bye Week
It wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. The Badgers are off this week before hosting Bowling Green.
Northwestern - Bye Week
This seems like a broken record. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Last week Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. FCS Western Illinois visits Evanston next Saturday.
By ASA
GAME OF THE WEEK
Penn State (-3.5) at Rutgers - 8:00 p.m. ET
PSU & Rutgers open up B1G conference play on Saturday in Rutgers. For the Scarlet Knights, it's their first conference game as a member of the conference. Rutgers is 2-0 heading into this week with wins over Washington State and FCS Howard. The Knights are led by QB Nova (31-of-46 for 563 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT) and RB James (216 rush yards on 5.1 YPC with 4 TD). Nova, James, and the rest of this offense will have their first difficult test against PSU's defense; a unit that ranks 4th against the run, 15th in overall defense, and 25th in scoring defense. Rutgers' defensive numbers aren't very good at this point in the season after allowing 538 yards to Washington State and 427 to FCS Howard. The Knights will have to clean things up on defense as PSU's QB Hackenberg is on his way to a breakout campaign. The sophomore already has 773 pass yards (65.1%) with 4 TD & 4 INT. The Nittany Lions were able to avoid a letdown performance in a 21-3 win over Akron after coming home from a week one game in Dublin. Motivation won't be lacking for either side as we expect Rutgers to be fired up for their first home conference game in a primetime setting. On the other side, PSU got some good news this week that the NCAA released the ban on postseason play - meaning the Nittany Lions will be eligible for a bowl this year. Not that the Nittany Lions weren't playing with high-intensity before, but that news certainly won't hurt the motivation going forward. Penn State is 15-8 SU in the last 23 Big Ten road games, but just 1-4 SU & ATS in the last 5. PSU is 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against Rutgers, but the last meeting was in 1995. Rutgers is just 2-7 ATS in the last nine home games.
BEST OF THE REST
Iowa (-13.5) vs. Iowa State - 3:30 p.m. ET
Is it time to be concerned about performance of the Hawkeyes? They knew they were going to get a tough battle from FCS Northern Iowa in week one, but still only escaped with an eight-point win. Then last week they barely squeaked by at home against Ball State. QB Rudock threw two TD in the final 2:52 to give Iowa the 17-13 win. Arguably the most concerning aspect of Iowa's season so far is the inability to effectively run the ball. The Hawks rank 97th in rushing with just 132 YPG. Things won't get any easier as star LT, and likely top draft pick, Brandon Scherff is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Jake Rudock has posted solid numbers (572 yards on 68.8% with 4 TD and 0 INT), but Iowa needs to run it better. Solid defense and adequate QB play can take this team only so far. As ordinary as Iowa has been so far, they're in a much better position than rival Iowa State. ISU is already 0-2 after losses to FCS North Dakota State and conference rival Kansas State. The offense has been abysmal. QB Richardson has just 1 TD and 3 INT while top RB Wimberly has just 75 yards on 23 carries. They rank near the bottom of every major offensive statistical category. The defensive unit hasn't been much better as the Cyclones rank 121st against the rush, 68th against the pass, 110th in total yards allowed, and 100th in PPG allowed. This rivalry is split 7-7 since 2000 and Iowa State is 10-4 ATS over that span. Nine of those 14 matchups have been decided by 10 points or less, including three straight meetings by a total of just 12 points. Iowa is 0-2 ATS this season, failing to cover as a double-digit favorite in both of its games. ISU is 0-2 SU, but covered as a double-digit underdog against a solid Kansas State team last week.
Minnesota (+14) at TCU - 4:00 p.m. ET
Minnesota will take a big step up in competition this week as they visit TCU after home dates with FCS Eastern Illinois and Middle Tennessee State. Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner sprained his MCL against MTSU last week and his status remains uncertain. Leidner's strength is his ability to run from the QB position; if this sprain has a negative effect on his rushing ability, expect the Gophers to go with backup QB Chris Streveler. Streveler, the redshirt freshman, has thrown one pass in his career. Minnesota's strength is in the rushing attack. David Cobb rushed for 220 yards in last week's win over MTSU and the Gophers now rank 30th in rush YPG through two weeks. Expect TCU to stack the box this weekend in an attempt to make the Gophers beat them through the air. TCU had last week off after a blowout win over FCS Samford in week one. The Horned Frogs wracked up a +412 yard advantage and +24 first downs in the 48-14 blowout win. TCU returned 16 starters from last year's squad and this defense has the potential to be really, really good. Offensively QB Boykin leads the way along with a stable of solid running backs and experienced receivers. They'll give Minnesota's defense - which has looked vulnerable - their toughest test of the season to date. Dating back to 2007, the Gophers are 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10-points or more - includes a 13-7 ATS record on the road. Minnesota is 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS in the last 16 road openers. TCU is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 home games and just 0-3 ATS since 2004 against Big Ten squads.
Maryland (-3) vs. West Virginia - 12:00 p.m. ET
Maryland may have switched conferences, but their rivalry with West Virginia still stands strong. The Terps ended a seven-game losing streak to the Mountaineers with last year's 37-0 shutout victory. The 37-point margin of victory was the largest in this series since 1951! Maryland's 2013 season unraveled after that win, but they'll look to repeat the formula with another win over West Virginia on Saturday. The Terps had a closer-than-expected matchup with South Florida last week. They used a blocked punt return for TD in the 4th quarter to propel them to a seven-point victory - failing to cover as the 11-point favorite. Maryland managed just 116 rush yards on 2.9 YPC and they turned the ball over six times; but credit to the defense for holding USF's offense down the stretch and getting the win on the road. QB C.J. Brown has had a rough-go of it so far in 2014. He's completing just 53.8% with 3 TD and 2 INT despite having one of the top WR corps to throw to. Brown will have to clean up his game as the competition level goes up in this rivalry matchup with WVU. West Virginia wasn't supposed to stick with Alabama in week one, but the Mountaineers made a ball-game of it, never trailing by more than 10 points and cutting the lead to seven points in the 4th quarter. There was no hangover in week two as WVU trounced FCS Towson 54-0. QB Clint Trickett leads the way in this explosive offense. Trickett has 713 pass yards on 75.3% completions with 3 TD and 0 INT so far. He spreads the wealth nicely as three receivers already have 10 catches. Trickett didn't play in last year's blowout loss to Maryland, but this offense will be motivated to make some noise after the Terps held them scoreless. The Terps are just 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings, going 0-3 SU & ATS at home over that span (-11.6 PPG). Maryland is 9-22 ATS in the last 29 as a home favorite. West Virginia is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 as a road underdog.
Illinois (+14.5) at Washington - 4:00 p.m. ET
Credit the Illini for coming from behind yet again to get a win; but needing to come-from-behind in two straight weeks at home against FCS Youngstown State and Western Kentucky is a bit concerning. Wes Lunt continues to put up huge numbers and appears to be a strong fit for Bill Cubit's offense. Lunt now has 741 yards (67%) with 7 TD and just 1 INT. Lunt has had to be "the man" in the offense since the rushing attack isn't making a huge impact. RB's Ferguson & Young have combined to rush for 160 yards and 2 TD on 48 carries - a measly 3.3 YPC. Another concern has to be the performance of the defense. They allowed 400 yards to WKU last week and now rank 73rd in yards allowed and 72nd in points allowed through two weeks. This week Illinois goes on the road for the first time in 2014 to take on a fellow team that has had two uninspiring performances. Washington barely escaped with a win in a trip to Hawaii in week one and had to battle FCS Eastern Washington to win a shootout, 59-52. Eastern Washington tallied an astonishing 573 yards and 35 first downs against the Huskies and their QB Adams threw 7 TD! If an FCS QB can do that to Washington, they have to be extremely concerned about what Illinois' Lunt will do this week. Washington ranks near the bottom of every major defensive category so far. That will need to be cleaned up as UW's offense isn't well-equipped to win shootouts. The Huskies have run the ball with success (265 YPG with eight rush TD) but QB's Miles & Lindquist have combined to comlete just 24-of-50 passes for 342 yards and 2 TD. Illinois has revenge on its mind after a 10-point loss to the Huskies last September. The 10-point margin actually should have been larger as Washington was +288 yards and +13 first downs - but -2 in TO's, allowing Illinois to keep it rather close. The Illini have lost 11 of their last 12 road/neutral openers with the average loss by 17 PPG. Washington is just 8-15 ATS in its last 23 as a double-digit favorite while Illinois is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 as a double-digit underdog.
Michigan (-31) vs. Miami (OH) - 3:30 p.m. ET
The good news for Michigan is that it can't get much worse than what happened last week. The Wolverines were shutout for the first time since 1984 and it came at the hands of their bitter rival, Notre Dame, in the final scheduled game of the series. Michigan didn't get much going on offense, rushing for just 100 yards on 2.9 YPC and tossing for 189. They turned the ball over four times to Notre Dame's zero, and the defense was picked apart by ND's QB Golson. The only positive to take from that game was that Michigan's run defense held ND to just 54 rush yards on 1.7 YPC. The Wolverines will have to avoid a letdown after such a meaningful game last week, but that shouldn't be too difficult at home against Miami of Ohio, who has dropped 18 consecutive games. Miami showed some promise in a week one matchup against a good Marshall team. The Hawks were down by eight points at the end of the 3rd quarter before losing by 15 (covered as the 24-point underdog). Things didn't look nearly as promising in last week's home loss to FCS Eastern Kentucky. Miami turned the ball over six times and managed just 10 points against the FCS foe. QB Andrew Hendrix, the graduate transfer from ND, has a strong arm and already has 677 pass yards through two weeks. Michigan is 5-0 SU vs. Miami (last game was in 2008) and 33-1 SU vs. the MAC conference. Michigan is just 4-8 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite of 25 points or more. The Wolves are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 game at The Big House.
Ohio State (-32) vs. Kent State - 12:00 p.m. ET
Ohio State, like Michigan, will try to bounce back from a disheartening loss. The Buckeyes lost a regular season game for the first time under head coach Urban Meyer; and their first home loss since 2011. Braxton Millers absence under center was truly felt last week as redshirt freshman JT Barrett really struggled against Virginia Tech. VA Tech stacked the box and shut down OSU's rushing attack (108 yards on 2.7 YPC) and Barrett couldn't take advantage. Barrett completed just 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT and was inefficient on third down (4-of-16 conversions). The offensive line that replaced four starters from 2013 appeared overmatched by the Hokies and the defense wasn't pretty either. The Buckeyes will have a chance to get right this week against Kent State. Things are looking bleak for Kent State. The Golden Flashes have dropped both games so far this season, losing to Ohio and South Alabama. (0-2 ATS). QB Reardon has 4 TD and just 1 INT, but he has been inefficient (58%) and mild (5.8 yards per attempt). KSU is averaging just 47.5 rush yards per game and they've scored just 4 TD through two games. The Golden Flashes are 2-23-1 in the last 26 road openers including six straight losses by an average of 28 PPG. OSU has won both meetings with Kent State since 2000, winning by 34 points in 2002 and 45 points in 2007. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a favorite of 25 points or more.
Nebraska (-10) at Fresno State - 10:30 p.m. ET
The Huskers avoided a near-disaster against FCS McNeese State last week. With the game tied at 24 with just seconds remaining, the Huskers and Cowboys appeared to be headed for overtime. Star RB Ameer Abdullah took a pass 58 yards for a touchdown with 20 seconds left on the clock, giving Nebraska the seven-point win. The Huskers we saw in week one were vastly superior to the version we saw against FCS McNeese State last week. Which version will get on the plane to Fresno State? QB Armstrong was electric on the ground last week (131 yards on 11 carries) but was a bit inefficient through the air (16-of-31 with 2 TD and 1 INT). Abdullah couldn't get going on the ground as he tallied just 54 rush yards on 17 carries. Defensively the Huskers were a bit too lenient against their FCS foe, allowing 338 yards and 24 points while allowing the Cowboys to hold the ball for +9 minutes TOP. Fresno State, now 0-2, is desperate for a win and playing at home for the first time - Nebraska has to show up ready for a fight. FSU has looked outmatched in back-to-back road losses to Pac-12 members, USC (L 13-52) & Utah (L 27-59). The Bulldogs lost a lot of star power from 2013's team and nothing has gone right so far in 2014. QB's Connette and Burrell have been inefficient (55%) while combining to throw 3 TD and 4 INT. The defense has been absolutely atrocious. FSU is allowing 613.5 YPG (126th) and 55.5 PPG (127th) through two games. The Bulldogs are hoping that a return home, where they are 13-0 the past two years, gets them back on the right track. The only prior meeting between these two was in 2011. Fresno visited Nebraska as a 28-point underdog. They trailed 26-28 late before two late touchdowns put the game away for the Huskers (FSU cover). Nebraska is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games as a road favorite of 10 points or more.
Purdue (+28.5) at Notre Dame - 7:30 p.m. ET
What a difference a week makes. A week after Purdue started the season on a strong note, beating Western Michigan by nine and notching 43 points in the process, Purdue came crashing back down with a 17-point blowout loss at home to Central Michigan. CMU moved the ball with relative ease against Purdue, tallying 333 yards and 19 first downs despite playing conservative most of the 2nd half. Purdue QB Etling did not have a good day, starting with an INT that CMU returned for a touchdown just five minutes into the game. Etling was replaced by sophomore Austin Appelby, who didn't exactly fare well himself. Coaches have opened up the competition and a starter for this week has not been named. Things will get tougher for the Boilermakers as they travel to South Bend this Saturday. They'll hope to catch Notre Dame in a letdown spot after the Irish put a beat-down on rival Michigan last weekend. ND QB Golson completed 23-of-34 passes for 226 yards with 3 TD and no INT against Michigan while ND's defense dominated, forcing three turnovers and becoming the first team to shutout the Wolverines since 1984. Notre Dame has given up a total of 17 points through two weeks of play - bad news for a Purdue team that has huge questions on offense. Notre Dame has won 23 of the past 28 games in this series, including six straight. The Boilers have covered the past two seasons, however, losing by just three points in 2012 (+14) and seven points in 2013 (+18). Notre Dame is just 4-12 ATS in the last 16 as a favorite of 27 points or more. Purdue is just 7-19 SU and 8-16-1 ATS in its last 26 road openers. The Boilers are also just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 as an underdog of 20 points or more.
Indiana (+6) at Bowling Green - 12:00 p.m. ET
The Hoosiers were off last week after dismantling FCS Indiana State in week one. Indiana has one of the more underrated offensive line units in the nation and they used it to perfection against FCS Indiana State. The Hoosiers ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards (6.6 YPC) and four scores. RB's Coleman and Roberts combined for 376 of those rush yards and QB Sudfeld only had to attempt 18 passes. If Indiana has successfully instilled a rushing presence into its offensive arsenal - they could be a serious sleeper in the Big Ten. The defense also had a promising effort, albeit against an FCS program, as it allowed just 170 total yards and 10 first downs. This week they travel to Bowling Green for their first road trip of the season. Bowling Green had a rough start to the season. The Falcons were blown out by Western Kentucky in week one and lost starting QB Matt Johnson to a season-ending hip injury in the process. They regrouped for a bounce back 48-7 win over FCS VMI last week. VMI was able to tally 418 yards and 24 first downs while controlling the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Bowling Green had three special teams touchdowns and forced three VMI turnovers. BG QB Knapke had a good starting debut (22-of-31 for 237 yards) while the rushing attack churned out 260 rush yards on 7.0 YPC. Bowling Green has dropped three straight games against Big Ten squads (since 2008), losing by an average of 33.6 PPG. Indiana is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 as a road underdog.
Michigan State - Bye Week
For the better part of two quarters, Michigan State looked like the superior team to Oregon, leading 27-18 midway through the 3rd quarter. The wheels came off after that as Oregon scored the final 28 points of the game in the 46-27 win. MSU QB Cook completed just 29-of-47 passes and had 2 costly INT's while the rushing attack never really got going (123 yards on 3.4 YPC). The defense was good for a while, but Oregon's up-tempo pace clearly exhausted the Spartans. MSU allowed Oregon's Heisman candidate QB Mariota to throw for 318 yards and 3 scores while the Ducks added 173 rush yards. The 46 points allowed by MSU was the most under Dantonio since allowing 49 to #7 Penn State in 2008. Sparty is off this week before hosting Eastern Michigan next Saturday.
Wisconsin - Bye Week
It wasn't easy to watch as the Badgers struggled to just a 9-3 halftime lead against FCS Western Illinois, but credit the Badgers for coming out hot in the 2nd half and racing to a 37-3 victory. Western Illinois stacked the box against the Badgers, limiting star RB Gordon to just 38 yards on 17 carries. QB McEvoy, who looked helpless in the week one loss to LSU, finally showed why he won the starting job. McEvoy completed 23-of-28 passes, including 17 straight at one point - for 283 yards with 3 TD and 1 INT. It was a promising sight as McEvoy shined and the defense held Western Illinois to just 162 total yards and 11 first downs. The Badgers are off this week before hosting Bowling Green.
Northwestern - Bye Week
This seems like a broken record. Northwestern continues to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Five of their seven losses in 2013 were by 10 points or fewer and they've already dropped two such games this season. Last week Northern Illinois came into Evanston and handed Northwestern a 23-15 loss. NIU rushed for 221 yards on 4.0 YPC while QB Hare tossed 2 TD on just 10 attempts. Northwestern was stalled on offense as they totaled just 72 rush yards on 37 carries (1.9 YPC). To make matters worse, QB Siemian left in the 4th quarter with a leg injury. FCS Western Illinois visits Evanston next Saturday.
Bad Company - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers
Each week during the college football season, we’ll take a look at the worst of the worst teams on the gridiron and who to avoid placing your money on, even if the high number is enticing. Heading into the third week of the campaign, three of these squads come from the Mid-American Conference, starting with a club looking for its first victory since October of 2012.
Miami-Ohio (+31) at Michigan – 3:30 PM EST
The days of Ben Roethlisberger under center for Miami-Ohio are long gone as the Redhawks are currently riding an 18-game losing streak. In 2013, the Redhawks finished 0-12 straight-up and 3-9 against the spread, which included seven defeats by at least 25 points. Miami managed a cover in its season opener against Marshall as 24-point home underdogs in a 42-27 setback, but tripped on itself as a six-point home favorite against Eastern Kentucky in a 17-10 loss.
Now, Miami heads to the Big House to take on a Michigan squad that was humiliated at Notre Dame last Saturday. The Redhawks own a dreadful 2-10-1 ATS record the last two seasons as road underdogs, while Michigan has covered six of its past seven games as a double-digit home favorite.
Kent State (+32) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST
Another case of a MAC school going on the road to take on a Big Ten squad coming off an embarrassing loss. The Golden Flashes have compiled a 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS record since the 2012 season in which Kent State made it all the way to the MAC title game. The offense has been offensive so far for the Flashes, who have scored a total of 27 points in two losses to Ohio and South Alabama.
One positive to note with Kent State is the 2-1 ATS record last season as a double-digit road underdog, which including covers at LSU and Ball State. However, it seems like a nearly impossible task for Kent State headed to the Horseshoe on Saturday to come out with a win as the Buckeyes last lost to an in-state school in football back in 1921. Since 2009, OSU has put together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record against Ohio schools, as four of those victories came by at least 36 points.
Purdue (+27) vs. Notre Dame (in Indianapolis) – 7:30 PM EST
The Boilermakers owned one of the worst defenses in college football last season en route to a dreadful 1-11 season in which the lone win came against FCS Indiana State. Purdue allowed at least 31 points in eight games in 2013, while the Boilermakers kept that trend alive in the first two contests of 2014 by yielding 34 points to Western Michigan and 38 points to Central Michigan. Now, Purdue gets a major step-up in class against Notre Dame, who has scored 79 points in its first two wins over Rice and Michigan.
The good news for Purdue heading into this neutral-site matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium is the two covers against Notre Dame the last two seasons, a 20-17 defeat in South Bend as 14-point ‘dogs in 2012, followed by a 31-24 home setback in 2013 as 17-point ‘dogs. However, the Boilermakers put together a 3-6 ATS record last season as a double-digit underdog, which included six losses of at least 24 points.
Eastern Michigan (+18) at Old Dominion – 6:00 PM EST
Back to the MAC with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan, who were blown out at Florida last Saturday, 65-0 as 40 ½-point underdogs. How bad was it for EMU? The Eagles were outgained by the Gators, 655-125, while EMU racked up only seven first downs (compared to 27 by UF). Eastern Michigan has won only two games in three of the past four seasons, so its prospects of an improved campaign are highly unlikely in 2014. Now, the Eagles are playing the second of four straight road games, taking on an Old Dominion team who is participating in its first season at the FBS level.
Eastern Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a road underdog, while ODU blew an 11-point lead in last week’s 46-34 setback at North Carolina State as a 15 ½-point ‘dog. EMU better strap up defensively after giving up a mind-blowing 42 points or more in nine of the past 12 games.
FIU (+26) vs. Pittsburgh – 12:00 PM EST
The only home underdog on this list is the Golden Panthers, taking on the Pitt Panthers in this obvious mismatch. FIU has split a pair of games against FCS schools Bethune-Cookman and Wagner, while allowing 17 points so far. There isn’t much to get excited about offensively with FIU, who scored 13 points or less 10 times in 2013. Since 2012, the Golden Panthers have lost 12 of their past 13 home games with the lone victory coming against Wagner last week.
Pittsburgh’s largest road win under Paul Chryst is a 24-point margin against USF back in 2012, as the Panthers split six games away from Heinz Field last season. Pitt is seeking back-to-back road wins for the first time since 2008.
Favorite fade:
Vanderbilt (-16) vs. Massachusetts – 12:00 PM EST
Vandy has put together two horrible efforts so far in losses to Temple and Ole Miss. The Commodores have been outscored by a massive margin (78-10), while allowing 547 yards to Ole Miss last week. UMass may not have a lot of talent, but the Minutemen hung around with Colorado as a 17-point home ‘dog in last Saturday’s 41-38 defeat. Last season, UMass compiled a 2-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while covering as 29-point ‘dogs in a 24-7 loss at Vanderbilt.
By Kevin Rogers
Each week during the college football season, we’ll take a look at the worst of the worst teams on the gridiron and who to avoid placing your money on, even if the high number is enticing. Heading into the third week of the campaign, three of these squads come from the Mid-American Conference, starting with a club looking for its first victory since October of 2012.
Miami-Ohio (+31) at Michigan – 3:30 PM EST
The days of Ben Roethlisberger under center for Miami-Ohio are long gone as the Redhawks are currently riding an 18-game losing streak. In 2013, the Redhawks finished 0-12 straight-up and 3-9 against the spread, which included seven defeats by at least 25 points. Miami managed a cover in its season opener against Marshall as 24-point home underdogs in a 42-27 setback, but tripped on itself as a six-point home favorite against Eastern Kentucky in a 17-10 loss.
Now, Miami heads to the Big House to take on a Michigan squad that was humiliated at Notre Dame last Saturday. The Redhawks own a dreadful 2-10-1 ATS record the last two seasons as road underdogs, while Michigan has covered six of its past seven games as a double-digit home favorite.
Kent State (+32) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST
Another case of a MAC school going on the road to take on a Big Ten squad coming off an embarrassing loss. The Golden Flashes have compiled a 4-10 SU and 4-9-1 ATS record since the 2012 season in which Kent State made it all the way to the MAC title game. The offense has been offensive so far for the Flashes, who have scored a total of 27 points in two losses to Ohio and South Alabama.
One positive to note with Kent State is the 2-1 ATS record last season as a double-digit road underdog, which including covers at LSU and Ball State. However, it seems like a nearly impossible task for Kent State headed to the Horseshoe on Saturday to come out with a win as the Buckeyes last lost to an in-state school in football back in 1921. Since 2009, OSU has put together a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record against Ohio schools, as four of those victories came by at least 36 points.
Purdue (+27) vs. Notre Dame (in Indianapolis) – 7:30 PM EST
The Boilermakers owned one of the worst defenses in college football last season en route to a dreadful 1-11 season in which the lone win came against FCS Indiana State. Purdue allowed at least 31 points in eight games in 2013, while the Boilermakers kept that trend alive in the first two contests of 2014 by yielding 34 points to Western Michigan and 38 points to Central Michigan. Now, Purdue gets a major step-up in class against Notre Dame, who has scored 79 points in its first two wins over Rice and Michigan.
The good news for Purdue heading into this neutral-site matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium is the two covers against Notre Dame the last two seasons, a 20-17 defeat in South Bend as 14-point ‘dogs in 2012, followed by a 31-24 home setback in 2013 as 17-point ‘dogs. However, the Boilermakers put together a 3-6 ATS record last season as a double-digit underdog, which included six losses of at least 24 points.
Eastern Michigan (+18) at Old Dominion – 6:00 PM EST
Back to the MAC with the Eagles of Eastern Michigan, who were blown out at Florida last Saturday, 65-0 as 40 ½-point underdogs. How bad was it for EMU? The Eagles were outgained by the Gators, 655-125, while EMU racked up only seven first downs (compared to 27 by UF). Eastern Michigan has won only two games in three of the past four seasons, so its prospects of an improved campaign are highly unlikely in 2014. Now, the Eagles are playing the second of four straight road games, taking on an Old Dominion team who is participating in its first season at the FBS level.
Eastern Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its past eight as a road underdog, while ODU blew an 11-point lead in last week’s 46-34 setback at North Carolina State as a 15 ½-point ‘dog. EMU better strap up defensively after giving up a mind-blowing 42 points or more in nine of the past 12 games.
FIU (+26) vs. Pittsburgh – 12:00 PM EST
The only home underdog on this list is the Golden Panthers, taking on the Pitt Panthers in this obvious mismatch. FIU has split a pair of games against FCS schools Bethune-Cookman and Wagner, while allowing 17 points so far. There isn’t much to get excited about offensively with FIU, who scored 13 points or less 10 times in 2013. Since 2012, the Golden Panthers have lost 12 of their past 13 home games with the lone victory coming against Wagner last week.
Pittsburgh’s largest road win under Paul Chryst is a 24-point margin against USF back in 2012, as the Panthers split six games away from Heinz Field last season. Pitt is seeking back-to-back road wins for the first time since 2008.
Favorite fade:
Vanderbilt (-16) vs. Massachusetts – 12:00 PM EST
Vandy has put together two horrible efforts so far in losses to Temple and Ole Miss. The Commodores have been outscored by a massive margin (78-10), while allowing 547 yards to Ole Miss last week. UMass may not have a lot of talent, but the Minutemen hung around with Colorado as a 17-point home ‘dog in last Saturday’s 41-38 defeat. Last season, UMass compiled a 2-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while covering as 29-point ‘dogs in a 24-7 loss at Vanderbilt.
Georgia at South Carolina
By Brian Edwards
With its back against the wall in terms of competing for an SEC East title this season, South Carolina (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) will take on Georgia in a crucial conference clash Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 60. Gamblers can take the Gamecocks on the money line for a +220 return (risk $100 to win $220). For first-half wagers, UGA is favored by 3.5 with the 'over/under' set at 30.5 points.
The Wynn in Las Vegas opened UGA as a 3.5-point 'chalk' Sunday before quickly moving the line down to three. Within a few hours, however, the number was up to 5.5. By lunch on Monday, the line had settled at six at most books. The line moved to 6.5 early Friday.
Steve Spurrier's team got off to a horrific start when it took a 52-28 beating from Texas A&M as a 10-point home favorite in its Thursday night opener two weeks ago. The Gamecocks responded by capturing a 33-23 win over East Carolina last Saturday night as 15-point home 'chalk.' The 56 combined points stayed 'under' the 65-point total.
Although South Carolina failed to cover the number against ECU, there's no shame in beating that AAC school by a double-digit margin. The Pirates have a quality team with the best QB (Shane Carden) and WR in school history (Justin Hardy).
Mike Davis wasn't 100-percent healthy in Week 1 and it showed, as he produced only 15 rushing yards on six carries. Davis made up for against ECU, rushing 18 times for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Dylan Thompson threw for 266 yards and one TD, a 16-yard scoring strike to K.J. Brent.
For the season, Thompson has completed 45-of-78 passes (57.7%) for 632 yards with a 5/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nick Jones has been Thompson's favorite target to date. Jones has hauled in 10 receptions for 157 yards and two TDs.
Georgia was one of the nation's most impressive teams in Week 1, dominating Clemson in the second half en route to a 45-21 win as a 9.5-point home favorite. The 66 combined points soared 'over' the 55.5-point total.
Todd Gurley was the catalyst for the Bulldogs, rushing for three TDs and returning a kick 100 yards to paydirt. Gurley finished with 198 rushing yards on just 15 carries. Hutson Mason, who was making his third career start, connected on 18-of-26 throws for 131 yards.
Mason is making his first career road start against an SEC opponent. In his only previous road start, Mason sparked UGA to an overtime win over Georgia Tech after trailing the Yellow Jackets by 13 at intermission.
UGA is dealing with depth issues at the wide receiver position because three key players won't play this week. Malcolm Mitchell, Jonathon Rumph and Justin Scott-Wesley are 'out.'
South Carolina hasn't been a home underdog since thumping top-ranked Alabama 35-21 in 2010. Going back to 2009, the Gamecocks have covered the spread in four consecutive games as home 'dogs, winning outright three times.
South Carolina saw its three-game winning streak over Georgia snapped in Athens last year. Gurley rushed for 132 yards and a pair of scores, while Aaron Murray torched the Gamecocks' secondary after previously playing awful in three career games against USC. Mark Richt's team used a long a TD pass by Murray early in the fourth quarter to go up 41-30, which was the final score.
Davis was dynamite in the losing effort, rushing 16 times for 149 yards and one TD. He also had four catches for 49 yards. The game was closer than the final score indicated. South Carolina failed to score after advancing to the UGA one, getting stuffed on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter. Also, a nice drive to start the third quarter was negated when Connor Shaw coughed up a fumble inside of UGA's 25.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. There's a 70 percent chance of rain showers.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- The 'under' has cashed in seven straight South Carolina-Georgia meetings played in Columbia.
-- After the win over Clemson, UGA had an open date and two weeks to prepare for South Carolina. This is usually a huge bonus, especially when the other team does have a game. However, at this point early in the year, I'm not sure that the Bulldogs have an sort of edge based on the off week.
-- Spurrier owns a 15-6 (straight up) record against Georgia. He went 11-1 against the Bulldogs during his dynastic 12-year tenure at Florida.
-- UGA went 1-3 in the role of road favorite in 2013.
-- Sportsbook.ag has updated its odds to win the SEC. Alabama is the 2/1 'chalk,' followed by Georgia and Auburn who are 3/1 and 4/1, respectively. The next-shortest odds belong to Texas A&M (+650), Florida (8/1), Ole Miss (12/1), LSU (12/1), South Carolina (15/1), Missouri (28/1) and Mississippi St. (45/1).
-- Sportsbook.ag has FSU as the 5/1 'chalk' to win the national title. The Seminoles are followed by Alabama (8/1), Oregon (8/1), Oklahoma (9/1), Georgia (10/1), Texas A&M (12/1) and Auburn (12/1).
-- Oklahoma State quarterback JW Walsh had surgery on his foot Thursday and will be out at least 6-8 weeks. He might miss the rest of the regular season.
-- Rice star WR Jordan Taylor will miss his second straight game Saturday at Texas A&M. Taylor, who led the Owls with 55 receptions for 848 yards and eight TDs last year, is dealing with a lingering foot injury. The hope is that he'll be ready to go in next weekend's C-USA opener against Old Dominion.
-- Utah State WR Brandon Swindall is out for the season after tearing his Achilles in a Week 2 win over Idaho St. Swindall led the Aggies in TD catches with six in 2013.
By Brian Edwards
With its back against the wall in terms of competing for an SEC East title this season, South Carolina (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) will take on Georgia in a crucial conference clash Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium.
As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 60. Gamblers can take the Gamecocks on the money line for a +220 return (risk $100 to win $220). For first-half wagers, UGA is favored by 3.5 with the 'over/under' set at 30.5 points.
The Wynn in Las Vegas opened UGA as a 3.5-point 'chalk' Sunday before quickly moving the line down to three. Within a few hours, however, the number was up to 5.5. By lunch on Monday, the line had settled at six at most books. The line moved to 6.5 early Friday.
Steve Spurrier's team got off to a horrific start when it took a 52-28 beating from Texas A&M as a 10-point home favorite in its Thursday night opener two weeks ago. The Gamecocks responded by capturing a 33-23 win over East Carolina last Saturday night as 15-point home 'chalk.' The 56 combined points stayed 'under' the 65-point total.
Although South Carolina failed to cover the number against ECU, there's no shame in beating that AAC school by a double-digit margin. The Pirates have a quality team with the best QB (Shane Carden) and WR in school history (Justin Hardy).
Mike Davis wasn't 100-percent healthy in Week 1 and it showed, as he produced only 15 rushing yards on six carries. Davis made up for against ECU, rushing 18 times for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Dylan Thompson threw for 266 yards and one TD, a 16-yard scoring strike to K.J. Brent.
For the season, Thompson has completed 45-of-78 passes (57.7%) for 632 yards with a 5/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Nick Jones has been Thompson's favorite target to date. Jones has hauled in 10 receptions for 157 yards and two TDs.
Georgia was one of the nation's most impressive teams in Week 1, dominating Clemson in the second half en route to a 45-21 win as a 9.5-point home favorite. The 66 combined points soared 'over' the 55.5-point total.
Todd Gurley was the catalyst for the Bulldogs, rushing for three TDs and returning a kick 100 yards to paydirt. Gurley finished with 198 rushing yards on just 15 carries. Hutson Mason, who was making his third career start, connected on 18-of-26 throws for 131 yards.
Mason is making his first career road start against an SEC opponent. In his only previous road start, Mason sparked UGA to an overtime win over Georgia Tech after trailing the Yellow Jackets by 13 at intermission.
UGA is dealing with depth issues at the wide receiver position because three key players won't play this week. Malcolm Mitchell, Jonathon Rumph and Justin Scott-Wesley are 'out.'
South Carolina hasn't been a home underdog since thumping top-ranked Alabama 35-21 in 2010. Going back to 2009, the Gamecocks have covered the spread in four consecutive games as home 'dogs, winning outright three times.
South Carolina saw its three-game winning streak over Georgia snapped in Athens last year. Gurley rushed for 132 yards and a pair of scores, while Aaron Murray torched the Gamecocks' secondary after previously playing awful in three career games against USC. Mark Richt's team used a long a TD pass by Murray early in the fourth quarter to go up 41-30, which was the final score.
Davis was dynamite in the losing effort, rushing 16 times for 149 yards and one TD. He also had four catches for 49 yards. The game was closer than the final score indicated. South Carolina failed to score after advancing to the UGA one, getting stuffed on back-to-back plays in the fourth quarter. Also, a nice drive to start the third quarter was negated when Connor Shaw coughed up a fumble inside of UGA's 25.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. There's a 70 percent chance of rain showers.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- The 'under' has cashed in seven straight South Carolina-Georgia meetings played in Columbia.
-- After the win over Clemson, UGA had an open date and two weeks to prepare for South Carolina. This is usually a huge bonus, especially when the other team does have a game. However, at this point early in the year, I'm not sure that the Bulldogs have an sort of edge based on the off week.
-- Spurrier owns a 15-6 (straight up) record against Georgia. He went 11-1 against the Bulldogs during his dynastic 12-year tenure at Florida.
-- UGA went 1-3 in the role of road favorite in 2013.
-- Sportsbook.ag has updated its odds to win the SEC. Alabama is the 2/1 'chalk,' followed by Georgia and Auburn who are 3/1 and 4/1, respectively. The next-shortest odds belong to Texas A&M (+650), Florida (8/1), Ole Miss (12/1), LSU (12/1), South Carolina (15/1), Missouri (28/1) and Mississippi St. (45/1).
-- Sportsbook.ag has FSU as the 5/1 'chalk' to win the national title. The Seminoles are followed by Alabama (8/1), Oregon (8/1), Oklahoma (9/1), Georgia (10/1), Texas A&M (12/1) and Auburn (12/1).
-- Oklahoma State quarterback JW Walsh had surgery on his foot Thursday and will be out at least 6-8 weeks. He might miss the rest of the regular season.
-- Rice star WR Jordan Taylor will miss his second straight game Saturday at Texas A&M. Taylor, who led the Owls with 55 receptions for 848 yards and eight TDs last year, is dealing with a lingering foot injury. The hope is that he'll be ready to go in next weekend's C-USA opener against Old Dominion.
-- Utah State WR Brandon Swindall is out for the season after tearing his Achilles in a Week 2 win over Idaho St. Swindall led the Aggies in TD catches with six in 2013.
