Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Saturday 7:10 PM MLB
(955) MIAMI MARLINS at (956) CINCINNATI REDS
Take: (955) MIAMI MARLINS
No price on this game as I’m writing this, but the Marlins will definitely be the underdog. It’s the very unexpected return to the big leagues for old pro Brad Penny. He’s back with the team he started his major league career with all the way back in 2000. Penny is clearly not going to be a savior for the Marlins. He’s not the pitcher he once was, and for the most part guys don’t suddenly get better as they get older. But Penny has been throwing it pretty well on the farm, and he’s being rewarded with a chance to pitch big league ball once again.
This is not a unique scenario. I’ve seen this many times in the past, where a pitcher who most everyone assumed had simply retired, suddenly resurfaces. Actually, while I can’t give any precise numbers, I think it’s fair to say that a decent percentage of these returns from the scrap heap have gone pretty well right at the outset. I would not be shocked if that’s the case here as well. I don’t think there’s much chance that Penny can do anything more than be a stopgap for a bit. But there’s just no question he’s going to be thrilled to be pitching in a game that counts, and the good news for Penny is that he’s facing a Reds lineup that hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball.
Alfredo Simon will throw for the home team, and he is in the midst of a substantial regression. Simon has been putting up mediocre grades for several starts now and I can tell you from the eye test he’s centering too many pitches of late and the hitters aren’t missing. Simon was one of the more remarkable first half stories in baseball, but it sure looks like reality has set in as the innings have piled up.
It’s also no longer hazardous to one’s wealth to take a chance on the Marlins when they’re wearing the road uniforms. This team was terrible for most of the season in away games, but of late they’ve picked it up with an 8-3 record in their last 11 as visitors. The offenses here are pretty close and there’s much separation as far as the bullpen data is concerned.
This is basically a one-shot play on Penny. I see him being very charged up for this appearance, and for what it’s worth, Penny has a rich history in this ballpark. Simon is fade material right now, and the price on the Marlins figures to be reasonably generous. As long as that’s the case, I’m going to give Penny and the Marlins a roll this evening.