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Handicapped by Rusty Nash at Mohawk Racetrack


Rustys Simulcast Best Plays for

Mohawk ~ Yonkers ~ Pocono ~ Hoosier


Saturday August 9, 2014


Handicapped using TrackMaster Charts, TrackMaster Plus Programs and Data Files, my personal Speed Rating Projections and several decades of keen observation!


Overview of Todays Simulcast Selections

Balmoral is dark with the fair racing taking the front stage.

The New Meadowlands is now closed until the Breeders Crown eliminations in the fall. Though I do hope you had Hambletonian superfecta with us last week!

We will look at most of the races from Mohawk tonight. I have two there that I like quite a bit. One opens at a hefty morning line.

There also look to be quite a few plays on the sheets for the other three tracks.


For the Bonus Plays this season we will go with our 3 horse Projection Worksheet Exacta Boxes. This is defined as a situation where the projected gap between the third and fourth horses is four lengths or more. The secondary qualification is that none of the other horses in the race can be on my watch list. Some weeks we have quite a few other weeks they can be pretty scarce.

My only word of caution here is my worksheet does not include qualifiers. Horses coming off of a Q are usually found at the bottom of the list. Part of your job is to determine if the play should be altered in any way.

Wishing us all great racing luck this evening!


* * *
Rustys Best Plays guarantee a minimum of three races with full description and initial wagering thoughts 24-48 hours out. These are the races that look most interesting from a wagering perspective. Usually we will end up with about 4-6 races where a decent play may materialize if the odds are with us. Other races may be found with little or no commentary or only my list of rated contenders. These are races where I probably do not have a strong opinion or think should be avoided for other reasons. Normally I troll these races looking for overlays among my top rated selections. They are also useful for DD, P3, and P4 sequences.

I use the same care in preparing this report as I do for my own private equine investing!

Please compare my selections names and numbers to the official program. I do, and so should you. Now, off to the races......


Please note these exacta plays are listed in numerical order and not my graded order.

Mohawk Race #6 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 5.

Yonkers Race #3 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 4.

Hoosier Race #3 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 4.
Hoosier Race #5 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 2 ~ 3.
Hoosier Race #7 Exacta Box: 1 ~ 7 ~ 10.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 90 - Purse:$11500 - NON-WINNERS $7,500 LAST 5 STARTS AE: NON-WINNERS 8 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES LIFE OPT CLM ALW $25,000 SARATOGA


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 COACH CAL 5/2


# 2 KEEMOSABE 3/1


# 5 PEMBROKE DEWEY 4/1


COACH CAL more than likely looks like the solid standardbred to beat today. This gelding getting the win wouldn't be impossible, a chance. May be the most respectable in the field here, showing really good rankings of late. Average speed is a solid 92. Certainly should be given a look based on the really strong TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the last race. KEEMOSABE - Has one of the top win percents in the pack and may be able to add to those statistics right here. When the trainer Godinez puts Aldrich up for the drive good things happen. Take a look at the 26 win percent. PEMBROKE DEWEY - Had one of the strongest speed ratings of the grouping in his last competition. Must use in your wagers. Looks like a strong selection in this group and his positive winning percentage says he has the determination to dominate here.
 
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Mohawk: Saturday 8/9 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: SHAMBALLA (1st)

Spot Play: THUNDER SEELSTER (8th)


Race 1

(1) SHAMBALLA has won three straight impressively with his sizzling late kick, gets the rail and remains at this same level. (7) STEADY WARRIOR recently entered the McNair barn following a private purchase and may offer a price. (6) COBBLE BEACH has been racing very consistently as of late and once again poses as a main threat in this class.

Race 2

(6) MINESTRE HANOVER has won back-to-back races at this level for trainer Nixon. (1) BUDDYS HOPE enters the Beelby barn, has been very consistent this season and is capable of the class jump. (8) SUMMONS has hit the board in each of his last two starts and comes from a high percentage barn. He'll offer a low price and is a logical triactor play.

Race 3

(3) CHARMED LIFE has been racing at her best in recent weeks and has scored back-to-back wins. (2) WINDSONG GEANT is starting to look like his old self. He's racing very consistently, draws inside and is certainly capable in here. (6) CATCH THE DREAM hasn't missed the board in many weeks, has back class and offers a lot of versatility.

Race 4

(7) REQUEST FOR PAROLE comes out of the Johnson barn, is fresh off a win at this level and gets Waples in the bike. (3) FERRARI SENA draws inside, drops out of the Fillies & Mares Preferred class and comes from the Moreau barn. (8) JENNA CASIMIR may offer a price like last week, but she's been at her best in here last three appearances.

Race 5

(3) FRIEND OR FOE was a winner last week in this class, draws well and gets Christoforou back in the bike. (6) NOBLE FLIGHT has been the picture of consistency this season and has a terrific late kick. (5) DOUBLEDOWN GASS has only missed the board once this season, has terrific gate speed and is a top threat once again.

Race 6

(6) MACHAL JORDAN remains at this level, continues to pace in the 1:50-range and may offer a fair price in this wide-open contest. (1) THE REV gets the rail, comes from McNair's barn and finished second last week in this class. (5) FOREGO THE CIGAR just missed last week and Nixon's barn has been terrific this season. He has the speed and is capable of the class jump.

Race 7

(1) POCKET TRIP has terrific gate-speed and is a logical option in this class. Goodwin's barn has been terrific this season and this gelding will offer a low price. (4) HOME TURF is fresh off a win and has won three of his last four. (6) NORTHERN BULLET comes from the Larocque barn and is making just his second start back after a successful 2013 campaign.

Race 8

(10) THUNDER STEELER will need to overcome post 10, but he drops to this bottom level and may command a price. (5) LENNON BLUE CHIP enters the condition ranks, draws well and has been racing much better as of late. (4) DRAIN DADDY is due for a big effort sooner or later. He comes from good connections and went a tough trip last week.

Race 9

(9) ELLIS PARK commanded a price last week en route to victory. I'll back him again against many of the same rivals. (8) SUNSHINE BEACH recently qualified in 1:50 2/5 and faces a much easier field. (5) CAPTIVE AUDIENCE has suffered a pair of unfortunate steers as he was loaded with pace and nowhere to go. With a clean trip, he's a top candidate.

Race 10

(8) E L TITAN won three of five starts last season, qualified strongly and appears ready to begin his 2014 campaign. (4) DAMFOORRMILLIONAIR comes from the Maxwell barn, has won back-to-back races and is capable of the class jump. (1) OLE JACK MAGIC draws the rail and has hit the board in two of his last three.

Race 11

(4) ODYSSEUS BLUECHIP draws well for trainer Johnson and just missed last week in this class. (3) JDS CALEB MAN has a patented late kick, is fresh off a career best mile and draws much better in here. (1) THEPANINSULAHOTEL gets the rail, has all kinds of back class to offer and gets Christoforou back in the bike.

Race 12

(10) BAD BOY MATT has been racing well as of late and was a beaten favourite last week in this class. (2) TENDTOWIN draws inside and has won six of nine this season. He has the speed and may offer a price like last week. (9) JACKSON BRADY was a winner two back for trainer Wallace and is capable of the class jump. McNair is in the bike this week and will likely offer a price.
 
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Yonkers: Saturday 8/9 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 235 - 684 / $1227.20 BEST BETS: 41 - 56 / $131.30

Best Bet: NOB HILL HIGH (4th)

Spot Play: P H SUPERCAM (6th)


Race 1

(5) AMERICAN RAGE closed with plenty of pace after having no chance chasing a soft pace; any sort of live trip can take this. (1) ITS A GOOD THING has speed, the best draw and the veteran is clearly feeling good again. (3) ONE AND ONLY drops in class off a rather flat effort; barn is going well now.

Race 2

(3) ETHAN HANOVER returns locally off two solid efforts at The Meadowlands; streaky gelding should have some more good efforts in the tank. (1) HOKURI HANDRAIL N has been showing steady improvement for Vallee. (4) GOBAN can be a speed threat from this spot.

Race 3

(1) GAMBLER'S TALE had little to offer last week from a tough spot upon dropping to this level; veteran can show more tonight. (2) BUBBIE BOY drops, gets post relief and was Stalbaum's choice over the morning-line favorite. (5) HYPNOTIST couldn't reach last out; prior two efforts were solid.

Race 4

(2) NOB HILL HIGH finds a pretty soft field of NW18000 types and he should flaunt his class from this spot. (3) OURCULLENSCROWN N has missed some time but he fits with these and the Vallee-trained stock has been much better recently. (6) IDEAL CHAMP should definitely be forwardly placed tonight.

Race 5

(4) DELAWARE HANOVER has flashed solid speed in his last two local starts but lacked late stamina; maybe Carlson can coax more out of him tonight. (3) RU READY TO ROCK has more than proven himself at this level; big threat. (5) HI HO STEVERINO hails from live connections and he's capable of landing a small share.

Race 6

(6) P H SUPERCAM was too far back to threaten YET again last week; perhaps tonight's the night that Bartlett leaves with him. (4) THE REAL ONE rode the rail and was never a threat in last; I do think he has the ability to compete with these. (7) SAPPHIRE CITY took last week off after a solid, well driven victory.

Race 7

(7) RAMPAGE JACKSON returns to Bartlett and he may well be firing from the gate tonight; watch the board. (5) ROCK ON MOE is up in class off an easy win and he was a fringe Levy player earlier this year. (8) FAMEOUS WESTERN is razor-sharp but this is a very tough spot tonight; maybe he can spice up the triple.

Race 8

(4) FAT MANS ALLEY must be lazy because he needs constant urging and attention but he sure is fast when he needs to be; veteran looks best of these. (5) SOURCE OF PRIDE needed last week's race at Saratoga and he should be tighter tonight. (8) SMOOTH CRIMINAL is stuck outside again but he's capable of a big rally.

Race 9

(4) GRAB A CRAB lacks the class of others but he's sharp and he picks up Carlson. (7) TALKING BLUES wired these last week from the two hole; move outside could hurt. (2) MACERLEAN should be more involved from this spot.

Race 10

(4) TARPON HANOVER was an upset winner four back when Carlson drove; Surick trainee looks as capable as any in here. (3) HANG TEN hails from Burke, has Brennan driving and he may be cutting the mile. (6) CASIMIR JITTERBUG blasted from the eight hole at a million to one last week and didn't tire that badly; Sears drives tonight.

Race 11

(1) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP held his ground pretty well on Hambletonian day versus Sweet Lou; it's safe to say he's the one to beat from this spot. (2) STATESMAN N has a good history of solid efforts over this surface. (4) ALLSTAR LEGEND returns locally for Burke and he looks like a player.

Race 12

(4) FRIDAY AT FIVE has raced pretty well in all his recent efforts and he gets the call in this wide-open finale. (3) SKY IS THE LIMIT gets some class and post relief. (6) RIVER RUN FOR RYAN steps up off a race he probably should have won; tough to endorse for the top spot but he's more than capable of hitting the ticket.
 
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At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have had a very good Saratoga meeting, but this week so far has not been kind to the bankroll. We have an outstanding 11-race card on Saturday to get us back in the black for the week.

Saturday’s feature is the $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap (G2), a race that two-time Horse of the Year Wise Dan was originally pointing for. The Charles Lopresti trainee won the race the previous two years.

However, he is not ready to get back to the track quite yet, and now will likely show up in either the Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) on Aug. 30 at Saratoga or the Woodbine Mile (G1) on Sept. 14. His last outing was a win in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 3.

The gelding was all out to beat Seek Again by a head, and that runner looks like a player in the Fourstardave, the second choice on the morning line at 3-1.

The morning line favorite is Silver Max at 9-5. The Dale Romans trainee took the field gate to wire to win the Firecracker (G2) at Churchill Downs in his last outing. A winner of 10 of his 18 career starts on turf, he is a danger to take this compact field gate to wire.

Sayaad has some early zip and if that colt is sent early, it could set things up for a horse to come from off the pace, and as you can see below in today’s featured race, that is what I am banking on.

Saturday’s Best Plays Report includes my nine strongest plays from Del Mar and Saratoga.

Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Alw $50,000s (1:00 ET)

6 Quick as a Bunny 6-1
7 Silver Union 3-1
5 Miss Eletronica 7-2
2 Island Candy 5-1

Analysis: Quick as a Bunny pressed the early pace and did not have enough punch left late, weakening to finish third against $50,000 starter allowance foes. The winner was Lucky Nancy E, who came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foes by nine lengths here on July 27. The filly showed some ability to come from off the pace in her previous starts which may come in handy here as there is plenty of early speed signed up. With Leparoux in the irons she won't be up front here and is going to offer decent value if she goes off near her 6-1 morning line.

Silver Union broke her maiden last out for a $35,000 tag in her first trip over the Spa main track. The filly was claimed out of the race by the Maker barn that is 23% winners first off the claim. She looks headed in the right direction form wise and this is not a real tough spot for her first go against winners.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 2,5,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7


Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 10 The Fourstardave Hcp G2 (6:10 ET)

3 Jack Milton 5-2
1 Silver Max 9-5
2 Seek Again 3-1
5 Sayaad 5-1

Analysis: Jack Milton is at the top of his game right now and although he was fifth last out in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) he was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths and that was a deep field led by the winner Obviously, a seven time graded stakes winner. The third place finisher Tom's Tribute came back to beat Summer Front as they ran one-two in the Eddie Read (G1) on July 20 at Del Mar. Our top pick should get a good pace set up if Sayaad puts some pressure on Silver Max in the early stages. Pletcher is on a nice roll at the meeting, hitting at a 29% clip to lead all trainers with 16 winners.

Silver Max took the field gate to wire to win the Firecracker (G2) last out at Churchill Downs in his first start off a 7 1/2 month layoff. The five-year-old won 4 of 8 last year and has now won 10 of 18 in his career on turf. The third place finisher in the Firecracker was Guy's Reward, who came back to win the Oceanport (G3) at Monmouth Park on July 27. Also exiting the Firecracker and winning next out was Regally Ready, who won the West Virginia Speakers Cup at Mountaineer Park on Aug. 2. The Dale Romans trainee won the Bernard Baruch 'Cap (G2) here last summer in his lone trip over the Spa turf. He is going to be tough here making his second start off the bench, but his price is likely going to go south of his 9-5 morning line.

Seek Again won the Hollywood Derby (G1) last December in his U.S. debut, then got a five-month vacation. He came back in a couple of tough spots, beaten just a head by Wise Dan in the Woodward Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs and then a decent third in the Manhattan (G1) behind Real Solution and Kaigun. The cut back to a mile here is the main question mark and maybe Mott pans on scratching here and running this guy in the Arlington Million (G1) next week?

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3
TRI: 3 / 1,2 / 1,2,5


Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 5 The La Jolla Hcp G3 (4:09 PT)

5 Tonito M. 4-1
6 Enterprising 2-1
2 Schoolofhardrocks 5-2
1 Argyle Cut 7-2

Analysis: Tonito M. is making his turf debut in this spot after running third last out in the Los Alamitos Derby (G2) behind Shared Belief and Candy Boy. The latter came back to run second in the West Virginia Derby (G2) on Aug.2, beaten a nose by Tapiture and earning a 101 Beyer. Our top pick is 0 for 3 since coming to the U.S. after winning six of his first seven starts including a Group 1. He has a decent enough turf pedigree, by Rock Hard Ten out of a Dixieland Band mare that has dropped three other winners including one turf winner. Hollendorfer is 15% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. Decent value here if he goes off near his 4-1 morning line.

Enterprising was far back early in the Oceanside when coming back off a three month break and he finished strongly to get up in the last jump over Argyle Cut. The cot was up closer to the pace in his other starts and has now won four of his eight starts including three turf stakes. The colt is the logical one to beat but his price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 2,5,6
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R2: #2 Star Academy 8-1
R4: #3 Requite 8-1
R5: #8 Meet the Mets 8-1
R6: #3 Dubai Sky 8-1
R6: #6 Summer Dancer 15-1
R9: #9 Violet Hour 20-1
R11: #4 Siren’s Assault 10-1

Good luck today!
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington (1st) Synchronicity Too, 9-2
(4th) Nobel Bird, 6-1


Belterra Park (2nd) My Private Eyes, 6-1
(6th) Beautiful Dancer, 9-2


Canterbury (4th) Ragged Edge, 8-1
(8th) Appeal to the King, 3-1


Charles Town (2nd) Di Colas Point, 8-1
(6h) Princess of Windsor, 7-2


Delaware Park (2nd) Sky Given, 6-1
(6th) Mader Bythe Minute, 6-1


Del Mar (3rd) Tribal Dude, 7-2
(4th) Calculator, 9-2


Ellis Park (5th) Little Dash, 8-1
(7th) Fashion City, 8-1


Emerald Downs (4th) Jewel S., 3-1
(6th) Big Fat Storm, 3-1


Evangeline Downs (1st) Cowboy Max, 4-1
(7th) Queen Peso, 6-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Shilah, 7-2
(4th) Eddies Dream, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (7th) Driven by Desire, 6-1
(9th) Giddy Up Amigo, 8-1


Indiana Grand (4th) Tiz Tebow Time, 6-1
(7th) Teniente Coronel, 4-1


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Charlie and I, 6-1
(8th) Theregoesthatman, 5-1


Monmouth Park (4th) Crime Time, 6-1
(7th) Dance Tap, 6-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Offlee Sinister, 9-2
(8th) Goose No Fruit, 5-1


Parx Racing (4th) Small Secret, 3-1
(7th) Disarm, 4-1


Penn National (5th) Hula Party, 5-1
(6th) Three Bagger, 9-2


Prairie Meadows (3rd) Rico's Posse, 7-2
(9th) Recount, 7-2


Santa Rosa (5th) Heads I Win, 9-2
(8th) Rathgar, 3-1


Saratoga (1st) Miss Electronica, 7-2
(6th) Cool Comfort, 3-1


Suffolk Downs (2nd) Rough Road Ahead, 6-1
(7th) Royal Silk, 7-2


Thistledown (3rd) La Bachata, 4-1
(8th) Proud Valay, 7-2


Woodbine (2nd) Impetuous Act, 4-1
(8th) Starless Night, 3-1
 
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WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, August 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (24 - 6) at PHOENIX (25 - 4) - 8/9/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHOENIX is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in home games this season.
PHOENIX is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
PHOENIX is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MINNESOTA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in August or September games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 9-5 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 12-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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WNBA

Saturday, August 9

Trend Report

10:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games
 
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MLB

Preview: Red Sox (50-64) at Angels (66-48)

Game: 2
Venue: Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Date: August 09, 2014 9:05 PM EDT

Considered to be very confident by his manager, Garrett Richards has even more reason to feel good about himself after the first shutout of his career.

His Los Angeles Angels are scuffling at the plate during their second four-game losing streak of the year, but that could change since they face Clay Buchholz next.

Richards will make his first start against the Boston Red Sox on Saturday night opposite Buchholz, who enters after yielding his most runs in consecutive outings.

Richards (12-4, 2.58 ERA) bounced back from two straight losses in a big way Monday by striking out nine Los Angeles Dodgers and allowing five hits in a 5-0 road victory. He threw a career-high 122 pitches in his first nine-inning complete game.

"He is driven," manager Mike Scioscia said. "Garrett wants to be good. He has a lot of confidence in what he can do."

The right-hander has made four career relief appearances against the Red Sox, giving up five runs in 5 1-3 innings. He's most familiar with recent Boston newcomer Yoenis Cespedes, who is 5 for 16 off him - 3 for 7 with two doubles this year for Oakland.

Richards is third in the majors in opponent batting average at .195 - .173 since the start of June for baseball's second-best mark behind Seattle's Felix Hernandez.

Los Angeles (67-48) is seeking to avoid its first five-game slide after totaling four runs over its last 33 innings, falling 4-2 in Friday's opener of this three-game set.

The Angels could break out against Buchholz (5-7, 6.20), who has surrendered seven runs in each of his last two outings although he escaped without a decision in Sunday's 8-7 loss to the New York Yankees. He has a 10.13 ERA in his last three starts.

"It's been a frustrating year for everyone in here," Buchholz said. "We don't want to go out there and wear a Red Sox uniform and perform the way I am. I need to pick it up during the season."

The right-hander is 6-3 with a 4.54 ERA in 11 career starts against the Angels, including one in the postseason.

Los Angeles has received a total of three RBIs during this losing streak from stars Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. Pujols is 4 for 8 off Buchholz and Trout is 3 for 9 with each going deep once and this also could be a favorable matchup for Howie Kendrick, who is 7 for 21 with a homer versus the Boston starter.

Trout is in a 0-for-12 slide and trying to avoid going hitless in a fourth straight start for the first time in his career. He was robbed of a hit in the eighth inning Friday by speedy center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr.

Boston (51-64) has an opportunity to capture a series after losing its previous five. Mike Napoli homered against former batterymate Jered Weaver and Cespedes hit a two-run double Friday as the Red Sox evened their mark at 2-2 on this eight-game trip.

The Angels are second in the majors with 4.7 runs per game while the Red Sox are last in the AL at 3.8.
 

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