Dr. Bob :
I have finalized the math and written up the first 3 of Saturday's Bowl games and have just one lean (on Colorado State). I am going to get a few hours of sleep but I'll work on the other two Saturday Bowl games and hopefully have those to you by early afternoon. I won't have a Best Bet on either of those games either and I'm not even sure which way I lean yet. The next batch of Best Bets will be released on Monday or Tuesday.
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
I’ve released 3 Best Bets so far:
Miami-Florida (-1.5) 3-Stars at -2.5 or less, 2-Stars at -3.
Boise State (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
UNDER (60.5) Illinois-LA Tech 1-Star UNDER 59 or higher
Nevada (-1) 32 UL LAFAYETTE 30
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 08:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 201 Over/Under 61.0
Louisiana Lafayette is representing the Sun Belt Conference in the New Orleans bowl for the 4th consecutive year and the Ragin’ Cajuns have made the mostly supportive fans happy with 3 consecutive wins (and spread wins). UL Lafayette certainly could make it 4 for 4 in a battle of two teams that are pretty evenly matched from the line of scrimmage and both have veteran senior quarterbacks at the helm. However, Nevada has the edge in special teams and that extra field position could be the difference in the close game.
Nevada’s offense is led by 4 year starting quarterback Cody Fajardo, who has easily had his worst season of an otherwise very good collegiate career. Fajardo has been an above average quarterback the last 3 seasons but this season he averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play while facing teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Fajardo also threw 11 interceptions, which isn’t horrible, but it’s a lot for a guy that had thrown an average of just 6 interceptions over the first 3 years of his career. Fajardo shouldn’t have any interception issues against a UL Lafayette defense that allows 66% completions and picked off just 7 passes on 414 opponent’s pass attempts during the regular season. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed 7.3 yards per pass play this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.7 yppp against an average quarterback and that bad number is despite a better than average pass rush (2.5 sacks per game). Fajardo is an elusive quarterback that doesn’t get sacked often and he should post pretty good aerial numbers in this game while also leading a good ground attack (223 yards at 5.4 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) that should have no trouble gaining yards against a sub-par ULL defensive front that allowed 5.3 yprp this season to teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. Overall, Nevada’s offense rates at 0.3 yards per play worse than average while Lafayette’s defense is 1.1 yppl worse than average. Nevada is projected to gain 433 yards at 6.4 yppl in this game (with half a normal home field advantage applied in favor of ULL).
UL Lafayette’s veteran quarterback Terrance Broadway is in his third and final season leading the Ragin’ Cajuns and he also had his worst season by far after two very good campaigns after transferring from Houston. Broadway averaged over 9 yards per pass attempt in each of the last two seasons but that average dipped to 6.7 ypa and he averaged only 5.8 yards per pass play (which includes sacks) against FBS teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Not having the services of top WR Jamal Robinson most of the season certain affected Broadway, as Robinson averaged 9.8 yards per pass thrown to him last season (862 yards on 88 targets) and he averaged 12.4 yards on the 21 passes that Broadway threw to him (he caught 15 of them) this season while the other wide receivers combined to average just 7.0 yards per pass attempt. UL Lafayette’s very good rushing attack (239 yards at 6.0 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp) helped make up for the less efficient pass attack and overall the Ragin’ Cajuns’ attack rates at 0.1 yards per play better than average. That unit is projected to rack up 433 yards at 6.3 yppl against a sub-par Nevada defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and is equally bad against the run and pass.
Both teams should move the ball well and in fact are each projected to gain 433 yards by my model. Nevada has an edge in special teams and is a bit less likely to turn the ball over and overall the math favors the Wolf Pack by 3 ½ points with Lafayette receiving half a standard home field advantage for playing this game in nearby New Orleans. The Ragin Cajun’s certainly have taken advantage of the home cooking the last 3 years so perhaps a full home field edge is justified, in which case I get Nevada by 2 points (with a total of 61 ½ points). I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game.
Utah State (-10) 28 Texas El Paso 17
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 11:20 AM Pacific Rotation: 204 Over/Under 46.0
UTEP applies to a 54-8-2 ATS big underdog bowl situation but that situation works because the big favorite usually isn’t that interested in a minor bowl game against an inferior opponents. That doesn’t appear to be the case here, as Utah State head coach Matt Wells and his senior leaders have said that they’re hungry for a win to secure their 10th win and atone for what they thought was a down season and to atone for the season ending 19-50 loss at Boise State. If Utah State plays their normal game then the Aggies should win by double-digits.
Utah State started the season slowly with veteran quarterback Chuckie Keeton struggling but the offense perked up when Keeton was injured and Darell Garretson took over behind center. I had a Best Bet on Utah State in Garretson’s first start against BYU and the Aggies started a run of 3 straight spread wins with Garretson at the helm with a 35-20 win as a 21 point dog to BYU. Injuries to Garretson and 3rd string quarterback Craig Harrison led to freshman Kent Myers burning his redshirt and starting the final 5 games of the regular season. Myers is an accurate passer (69% completions) and a very good runner (299 yards on just 32 runs) and the Aggies offense has also received a boost by running more fly sweeps with dangerous wide receiver JoJo Natson, who averaged 10.2 yards on his 45 runs this season and ran 17 times in the last 4 games. Myers mostly settles for short passes to help move the chains and the combination of accurate passing and an enhanced rushing attack has led to Utah State being 0.8 yards per play better than average offensively in Myers’ 5 starts, which is better than their +0.1 yppl season rating. That attack is projected to gain 378 yards at 7.2 yppl in this game against a horrible UTEP defense that has given up 6.4 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average only 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. UTEP doesn’t defend the run well (5.8 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average team) and the Miners take a lot of chances in their secondary, which leads a good percentage of interceptions but also to a lot of big pass plays (15.0 yards per completion allowed).
UTEP isn’t quite as bad offensively but the Miners are 0.7 yppl worse than average on the attack side of the ball (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) and were limited to just 3.4 yppl in their two games against better than average defensive teams Kansas State and Louisiana Tech. Utah State’s defense has allowed just 4.8 yppl and 20.8 points per game this season (against teams that would average 5.3 yppl and 25.5 points against an average defensive team) and the Aggies should have no trouble containing UTEP’s poor attack. In fact, the math projects only 295 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Miners in this game.
Utah State has a huge edge from a yards per play perspective, as they are projected to average 7.2 yppl to UTEP’s 4.5 yppl. However, Utah State is a big play offense and UTEP’s defense gives up big plays, which should mean that the Aggies run far fewer plays. That’s built into the model, which projects UTEP with a +13 play differential in this game, but overall the Aggies have a huge edge from the line of scrimmage and a solid edge in special teams. Neither quarterback throws interceptions, as Myers had just 2 in 5-plus games and UTEP’s Jameill Showers threw just 5 interceptions in 12 regular season games. That math would have favored Utah State by 12 points using season stats but the Aggies are better offensively with Myers than they are overall this season and the math model calls for a 14 points win (and 45 ½ total points). I do think Utah State will avoid a letdown that plagues a lot of big favorites in minor bowl games and that expected letdown is already priced into the spread, which has come down from an opening number of 11 ½ points. However, I simply will not recommend going against a 54-8-2 ATS bowl situation that favors UTEP so I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game.
Colorado State (+3) 29 Utah 28
Sat Dec-20-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 206 Over/Under 57.5
Colorado State’s breakout 10-2 season led to the loss of their head coach, Jim McElwain, who has left the program to begin his new job at Florida. Despite the loss of their head coach the Rams’ players still seem to be fired up for the chance to beat a Pac 12 team for a second straight year in a bowl game. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will lead CSU to Las Vegas for this game against Utah, who should also be ready to play after missing out on a bowl game the last two seasons. However, if Colorado State is indeed not distracted by the loss of their head coach (there isn’t a trend one way or the other regarding interim coaches in bowl games) then the Rams have a good shot at an upset against a Utes’ squad that plays a lot of close games (5-2 in games decided by 7 points or less this season).
Utah isn’t that impressive from the line of scrimmage, as the Utes have been 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (-0.3 yppl with quarterback Travis Wilson at the helm) while their defense has been 0.3 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). Utah’s strength is having the best special teams in the nation and those units made a difference in a few games this season. However, overall the Utes are certainly not as good as they’re top 25 ranking and 8-4 record, as they could just as easily be 6-6 had they been 3-4 in close games rather than 5-2.
Colorado State has better overall numbers from the line of scrimmage, as the Rams were 1.3 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. However, quarterback Garrett Grayson racked up really big aerial numbers against bad defensive teams while playing relatively much worse against mediocre and better than average defensive teams. While Grayson was 2.1 yards per pass play better than average overall (8.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback), he was just 0.8 yppp better than average against the 7 mediocre or better than average pass defenses that he faced (Colorado, Boise State, Boston College, Nevada, Utah State, San Jose State, and Air Force) – averaging 6.8 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average QB. Utah is 0.5 yppp better than average defending the pass (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.4 yppp) and the Utes should do a decent job of containing Grayson and All-American WR Rashard Higgins. Colorado State’s rushing attack, led by former Alabama RB Dee Hart (1254 yards at 6.7 ypr), should have better than average success against a Utah defense that has been better than average defending the run for the season but has struggled against the run in their last 5 games (6.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yprp against an average team). I’m not sure why Utah suddenly began to have trouble defending the run at the end of the season after being so good against the run through week 9 (4.1 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team). I’ll assume the Utes will play run defense at their season average but it’s certainly plausible that they’ll continue to struggle in that regard, especially with LB Gionni Paul out. Paul was #2 on the Utes’ in tackles before missing the final two games of the regular season and the defense struggled without him.
The math model projects Colorado State with an advantage from the line of scrimmage (423 yards at 6.2 yppl to 412 yards at 5.7 yppl for Utah) but Utah has a sizeable edge in special teams and that math favors Utah by 1 ½ points overall (and 58 total points). I’d get Utah by 3 ½ points (and 56 total points) if Grayson’s trend of playing relatively much worse against mediocre and good pass defenses continues but the line is at least fair if that is the case. The reason for liking Colorado State is a 40-7-3 ATS bowl situation that applies to Utah and a 7-34-1 ATS situation that applies to Utah. The record is 8-0-1 ATS when those situations favors the same team and I’ll lean with Colorado State plus the points and I have no opinion on the total.
*UNDER (60 ½) – Louisiana Tech (-6) 27 Illinois 24
Fri Dec-26-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 221 Over/Under 60.5
Louisiana Tech’s games averaged 62.2 total points per game in regulation and Illinois’ games averaged 60.5 total points per game, which are both higher than the national average of 55 points per game. However, there is good value towards the Under in this game for a few different reasons, from Louisiana Tech’s variance in red zone scoring average to the significantly slower pace that Illinois is running their offense in the second half of the season with a run-oriented offensive approach replacing the pass-heavy attack of the first 6 games of the season. It all adds up to solid value on the Under.
The Illinois offense will be run by senior Reilly O’Toole, who was a backup for 3 ½ years before getting his chance to start when Wes Lunt went down with an injury in the middle of the season. Lunt is a better passer but he wasn’t nearly as effective when he came back from a month long absence in week 12 against Iowa and it was O’Toole that led the Illini to wins the following two weeks to secure a bowl bid and secure his spot as the starter for this game. O’Toole’s compensated passing numbers (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average QB) aren’t that much worse than Lunt’s compensated numbers (Lunt faced worst pass defenses) but O’Toole isn’t as careful with the football and has thrown 7 interceptions in just 167 pass attempts (4.2% compared to Lunt’s 3 interceptions on 233 passes, 1.3%). O’Toole has thrown 16 interceptions on 337 career pass attempts (4.7%), so his higher than normal interception rate this season (2.9% in the national average) is most likely not the result of variance and he’s certainly in danger of throwing multiple picks against a ball-hawking Louisiana Tech secondary that leads the nation in interceptions. O’Toole does add a running element to the position, as he ran for 355 yards on 62 runs this season (not including sacks, which I count as passing plays), including 147 yards on 21 runs in the win over Northwestern that earned the Illini a spot in a bowl game. O’Toole’s running should improve the overall rushing numbers despite injuries to two starting offensive linemen. The other affect of having O’Toole at quarterback is more runs and fewer passes, which has led to more average time of possession and fewer plays per minute for the Illini since week 7 due to the clock stopping less often. Illinois averaged 2.7 plays per minute of possession the first 6 games of the season when they were averaging 23.3 rushing plays and 44.0 passing plays per game and their games averaged a total of 148.6 plays from scrimmage (not including kneel downs and spikes). In 6 games from week 7 on, with mostly O’Toole at quarterback, the Illini averaged 2.4 plays per minute of possession while averaging 34.2 runs and 31.7 pass plays and those games totaled just 137.6 plays from scrimmage. The fewer number of plays expected in this game with O’Toole at quarterback is not factored into the total on this game, which is part of the reason we have line value on the Under. For the season the Illinois attack averaged 5.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and they rate the same with O’Toole at quarterback but with more projected turnovers.
The Louisiana Tech defense was consistently good this season, allowing 5.0 yards per play to a schedule of opposing offensive units that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs were particularly good defending the run (4.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yprp), which matches up well with an Illinois attack that runs it more often than they throw it with O’Toole behind center. Louisiana Tech will be without suspended starters DL Aaron Brown, LB Terrell Pinson, and LB Tony Johnson but those 3 also missed the Bulldogs’ game against an explosive Marshall attack and the defense played their best game of the season (relative to the strength of the opposing offense) in holding the Thundering Herd to just 5.4 yards per play and 26 points. I didn’t think Brown or Johnson would be missed since neither registered very many impact plays but I thought Pinson’s absence would hurt the pass defense since he’s proven to be very good in coverage (3 interceptions and 11 total passes defended). However, the coaching staff started a 5th defensive back against Marshall and the pass defense was even better and the Bulldogs gave up just 4.3 yards per rushing play to one of the best running teams in the nation. So, I certainly have no reason to think the absence of the 3 suspended defenders will hurt the defense given how well that unit performed in the CUSA Championship game and there is actually reason to think it might make the Bulldogs’ stop unit even better – although I made no adjustment either way. Louisiana Tech’s defense has a 0.7 yards per play advantage over the Illinois offense and the math projects the Illini to gain just 337 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with O’Toole projected to throw 1.45 interceptions against a Bulldogs’ defense that leads the nation with 25 interceptions in 13 games.
Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by QB Cody Sokol, who transferred from Iowa and had a solid season throwing the football. Sokol averaged 7.1 yards per pass play while facing teams that would combine to allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. The rushing attack features Kenneth Dixon, who ran for 1236 yards at 5.2 ypr, but overall the Bulldogs were well below average running the ball this season, as they averaged only 4.8 yards per rushing play as a team despite facing opponents that would combine to allow 5.3 yprp to an average offensive team. Overall, Louisiana Tech’s 37.5 points per game is very misleading given that the offense averaged their 6.0 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average FBS attack. The Bulldogs also inflated their scoring average with 76 points in one game against Rice and they had a red zone efficiency that is too high to maintain. The Bulldogs averaged 5.5 points per red zone opportunity, which is far outside the normal range. The best teams in the nation are usually around 5.2 points per RZ and the national average is about 4.8 points per RZ opportunity. Louisiana Tech projects to be at 4.9 points per RZ based on their overall offensive stats and the difference works out to 2.4 points per game of red zone variance. The Bulldogs also had 4 defensive touchdowns, which is more than average also, so their 37.5 points per game was randomly high, which is another reason we have some line value on the under. Louisiana Tech may not have been affected by the academic suspensions on their defense but the offense really struggled against Marshall (just 268 yards at 4.1 yards per play) without two suspended starting offensive linemen, Tre Carter and Mitchell Bell. Carter and Bell are two of the most experienced starters on the line (combined for 41 career starts) and Bell was named first team All-CUSA. An offensive line that had given up just 5 sacks on 282 pass plays (1.8%) in the final 8 regular season games allowed 2 sacks on just 22 pass plays (9.1%) in their CUSA Championship game against Marshall. The Herd also had 7 quarterback hurries in that game and Sokol was a horrible 7 for 20 passing for just 72 yards (59 yards with sacks included) while under constant duress. That’s 9 sacks and hurries in just 22 pass plays (41%) compared to 43 sacks and hurries in 431 pass plays (10%) in the other 12 games with Carter and Bell. The patchwork offensive line should be better than they were against Marshall with a few weeks to prepare for this game but I think it’s reasonable to assume that the offensive line will not be as good without their 1st team All-Conference tackle and their best guard.
The Illini don’t look too good defensively, as they allowed 33.9 points per game and 6.1 yards per play to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 30.5 points and 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. Illinois was actually pretty solid defensive early in the season and they were decent late in the season but they gave up an average of 8.4 yards per play in week 6 and 7 before playing better down the stretch. At 0.3 yppl worse than average the Illini defense matches up pretty evenly with a Louisiana Tech offense that is just average from a yards per play perspective this season and is likely to be a bit worse than average without their two best offensive linemen. The math model projects 379 yards at 5.7 yards per play for the Bulldogs, which is just barely better than the national average for yards per play and less than the national average of 396 total yards per game. It’s unlikely that Louisiana Tech will top 30 points even if they continue to average 5.5 yards per red zone possession.
Overall the math favors Louisiana Tech by 5 points, which is where this line opened, but the Illini apply to a very good 73-15-1 ATS bowl game situation that is more significant than a 50-23-2 ATS statistical match up indicator that applies to Louisiana Tech. I’ll lean with Illinois at +5 or more
The projected statistics in this game project just 49 total points but there should be a few more points than that given that Louisiana Tech is still likely to have a better red zone scoring efficiency than my model would project – although not as high of an average as they’ve had this season. The combination of 5 fewer projected plays than the season numbers would project and Louisiana Tech’s positive variance in points scored has supplied us with enough line value on the under to make a play. I should make this Under a 2-Star Best Bet but I’ve had bad luck with totals this season so I’ll play it conservatively and just make this a 1-Star play. I’ll go UNDER 59 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet (2-Stars at 61 or higher) and I’d consider the Under a Strong Opinion down to 58 points (and a lean under at less than that number).
***MIAMI-FLORIDA (-1 ½) 38 South Carolina 27
Sat Dec-27-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 231 Over/Under 61.0
As most of you know I’ve been anti-South Carolina since before the season started (I had 2-Stars on Under 9.5 wins) and I started playing on Miami in week 7 and went 3-1 on my Best Bets on the Hurricanes, with the only loss being a bit unlucky (a 4 point loss as a 3 point dog to Florida State). What prompted those mid-season Best Bets (easy wins against Cincy, Virginia Tech and North Carolina prior to the tough loss to FSU) was extremely negative variance in 3rd down efficiency that kept the Hurricanes from looking as good as they actually were those first 6 games. Through week 6 Miami was averaging 6.6 yards per play and allowing just 4.9 yppl against a good schedule of FBS opponents (Louisville, Arkansas State, Nebraska, Duke, and Georgia Tech) that would combine to outgain an average FBS team by 0.5 yppl. However, Miami won only 2 of those 5 games against FBS opponents while being outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points, which made the Hurricanes appear to be a pretty mediocre team. I knew that was far from the truth, as they had actually been 11.6 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage. The discrepancy between how good Miami actually was and how they appeared to be based on scoring margin was partially due to a -3 in turnovers but was mostly due to extremely negative 3rd down variance. Miami, despite being a very good offensive team overall, had converted on just 15 of 63 (24%) 3rd downs through the first 6 weeks of the season, which would be low even for the worst offensive teams in the nation, and was extremely low for an offense that was as good as Miami’s offense. That negative variance in 3rd down conversions through 6 games supplied us with the line value to tab Miami for Best Bets in their next 4 games. The Hurricanes beat Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina by an average of 24 points before blowing their 23-7 lead against Florida State by playing the second half not to lose rather than being aggressive and confident like they were in the early stages of that game. As you know, Miami lost a heartbreaker 26-30 despite outgaining the Seminoles by 73 yards and that defeat crushed the Hurricanes’ growing spirit. I passed on making Miami a Best Bet the next week against Virginia, as it was a huge letdown coming off the disappointing loss to the Seminoles, and Canes lost that game to the Cavs by 17 points and then lost by 12 points to Pitt in their finale. Perhaps Miami lost some of their enthusiasm after the deflating loss to FSU but those two seemingly bad losses weren’t actually that bad given that Miami outgained Virginia and Pitt by an average of 380 yard at 6.0 yppl to 354 yards at 5.8 yppl. What those losses did do was provide us with the line value on Miami for this game that was starting to fade after their mid-season surge.
Miami may appear to be an inconsistent team but the Hurricanes’ line of scrimmage rating, which is a rating based on a combination of total yards and yards per play for and against and adjusted for site and quality of opponent, was very consistent. Miami’s worst line of scrimmage (LOS) rating this season was +7.6 points in their opener against Louisville and their average LOS rating is +14.7 points while their variance in LOS ratings is among the lowest in the nation. Where Miami is inconsistent is turning their yardage advantage into a points advantage. Early in the season the problem was due to 3rd down conversions (24% through 6 games) but the Hurricanes have converted on 45% of their 3rd downs in their last 6 games, which is more in line with what would be expected from an offense as good as their offense is. The problem in their final two games was negative red zone variance, as Miami averaged just 2.0 points per red zone opportunity and allowed 5.8 points per red zone opportunity in their losses to Virginia and Pitt, which explains how the Canes could lose by an average of 14.5 points in those two games despite outplaying those teams from the line of scrimmage. Miami’s red zone efficiency prior to their last 2 games was 4.7 points per RZ on offense and 4.8 points per RZ allowed on defense, so the extreme red zone variance was just a two week thing that made Miami once again look much worse than they actually are (the last two games put Miami’s season red zone scoring to just 4.4 points per RZ on offense and 5.0 points per RZ on defense). I see no reason why Miami would have trouble on 3rd downs or with red zone offense or defense in this game given how good they are overall from the line of scrimmage.
How good is Miami from the line of scrimmage? Miami has averaged 436 yards and 6.9 yards per play on offense while facing a schedule of FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Miami’s defense has yielded just 358 yards at 5.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average FBS defense. That’s an overall compensated yards per play differential of +2.2 yppl, which ranks 9th in the nation. South Carolina, meanwhile, has a compensated yards per play differential of just +0.4 yppl as the offensively strong Gamecocks (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack) have struggled this season due to a horrible defense that is 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). South Carolina has run more offensive plays than their opponents because they tend to give up big plays (and thus fewer long drives) and overall the Gamecocks’ line of scrimmage rating is +6.8 points. South Carolina is expected to run 9 more plays than Miami in this game, as the Hurricanes should hit on a few big plays against a defense that tends to give them up, but overall the Hurricanes have been 8 points better from the line of scrimmage, 0.6 points better in special teams and 0.9 points better in projected turnovers. Add it all up and Miami would be favored to win this game by 9 ½ points with neutral variance. Of course, there is a reasonable chance that Miami’s negative differential in 3rd down conversions and red zone scoring averages is not due to variance. However, that chance is factored into my model’s projection of Miami having a 57.5% chance of covering based solely on the math model. That percentage is based on the historical performance of my model and the math model plays (games with a significant difference from the line) have been particularly good in bowl games when choosing a team that is favored by 4 or less or getting points (those are 35-18 ATS since 2004, the first year of my current math model). In addition to the math, the Hurricanes also apply to a 73-29-3 ATS bowl situation that plays on teams to rebound from an upset loss in their regular season finale and teams in that situation that have lost 3 or more games in a row are 9-1 ATS with the only spread loss by just ½ a point. In general, teams that lost their final 3 regular season games are 60% ATS in bowl games, including 21-8 ATS when not favored by 7 points or more and facing a team that has 3 or more losses on the season. Miami has had time to refocus themselves after their disappointing end to the season and the Hurricanes are a much better team than South Carolina, who they are likely to beat even if the Gamecocks also have a renewed enthusiasm for this game. There is another situation that plays on good defensive teams in bowls when facing a bad defensive team and that angle is 64-32-1 ATS, which also applies to Miami. I’ll take Miami in a 3-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less, for 2-Stars at -3 and for 1-Star up to -4 points.
**Boise State (+4) 35 Arizona 29
Wed Dec-31-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 251 Over/Under 69.5
Arizona is playing this game in their home state but the Wildcats don’t have any other advantages and I’m not sure the proximity to home will be that much of an advantage given how Boise State’s fans tend to travel well for bowl games. The Broncos and their fans are excited about being the non-power conference team to get invited to a major bowl and I expect Boise to win this game straight up against an overrated Arizona team that got stomped by Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship game. Arizona also beat Oregon in Eugene but that impressive win was one of just 2 really impressive games that the Wildcats played this season (the other being a 42-10 win at Utah). The rest of the year was pretty mediocre and the Cats’ 10-3 record is due in large part to their good fortune in close games. The Wildcats are 6-1 in games decided by 7 points or less and they are more like an 8-5 or 7-6 team than a 10-3 team. That mediocrity shows in their stats, as Arizona only outgained their opponents by 7 total yards per game and 5.8 yards per play to 5.7 yppl. Arizona’s schedule was only 4.9 points tougher than an average FBS team and the Wildcats are only 5.4 points better than an average team from the line of scrimmage and only 7 points better than average overall (that includes special teams and projected turnovers). That rating is a few points lower than their rating based purely on points because their point margin was influenced by some turnover luck (+3 in defensive touchdowns off turnovers) and a Hail Mary pass to beat Cal (which I don’t include in my stats because I consider Hail Mary passes random).
Boise State is better than Arizona on both sides of the ball, especially offensively. The Broncos averaged 501 total yards and 6.7 yards per play this season while facing a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack. The Broncos are well balanced with Jay Ajayi (1689 yards and 25 rushing touchdowns) leading a ground attack that averages 237 yards and 5.8 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.1 yprp) while quarterback Grant Hedrick takes care of the aerial attack with 71% completions and 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). The passing game is even better now that WR Dallas Burroughs no longer gets snaps and sophomore Thomas Sperbeck is a featured receiver. Burroughs averaged just 4.3 yards on the 28 passes directed at him in the first half of the season and a mid-season injury to senior WR Matt Miller was a blessing in disguise, as it put Sperbeck in the lineup. Sperbeck leads the Broncos in receiving yards despite not playing the first 4 games of the season and his 12.0 yards per pass thrown to him also leads the team. Boise’s pass attack has been 0.2 yppp better since week 5 when Sperbeck starting playing and Boise State’s offense currently rates at 1.0 yppl better than average, which gives the Broncos a big advantage over an Arizona defense that is only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team). My math model projects 513 yards at 6.4 yppl for Boise State in this game. Boise State has averaged 39.8 points per game on an average of 501 yards and they’re projected to score 35 points in this game.
Arizona’s offense tallies a lot of yards because they run a lot of plays but the Wildcats are just 0.1 yppl better than average, averaging a modest 5.8 yards per play while facing teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. I decided not to include the last two games since an injured foot hindered the mobility of quarterback Anu Solomon, which made him more prone to getting sacked (8 sacks the last two games) and kept him from running effectively. Solomon should be pretty close to 100% for this game but the Wildcats’ are still just 0.2 yppl better than average offensively if I exclude those final two games. Boise State’s defense was just 0.1 yppl better than average overall (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl) but that average was skewed by the 627 yards at 9.7 yppl in their game against the New Mexico triple-option. My model adjusts for outliers and Boise’s defense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average after that adjustment. Boise also struggled defending the run against the Air Force option and while the Broncos were just barely better than average defending the run overall they were very good against the run when not facing a team that runs the triple-option. In those 11 games the Broncos allowed just 4.2 yards per rushing play to teams that would average 5.1 yprp against an average team. Boise allowed less than 4.0 yprp in 7 of 11 games against non-option teams so their run defense is actually very good despite their overall mediocre numbers that were skewed by their two games against option offenses. That math projects 414 yards at 5.5 yppl for Arizona in this game, which equates to about 29 points after factoring in the Wildcats’ 2.3 points advantage in special teams (projected turnovers are even).
Boise State has a projected advantage of 99 total yards at 0.9 yards per play and the Broncos appear to be the better team. I didn’t give any points to Arizona for playing in their home state since there isn’t any compelling evidence that playing in your home state (and not your actual home stadium) is an advantage. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star as a dog of less than 3 points. The math also projects just 63 ½ total points and I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 69 points or higher.
