Saturday 12/20/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/20 analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: MODERN LEGEND (7th)

Spot Play: RESISTANCE FUTILE (4th)


Race 1

(6) DONCANGO is fresh off a win, draws in the middle of the gate and comes from the Baillargeon barn. (3) CAL CHIPS BROTHER is fresh off a win, draws well this week and has seven wins to his credit this season. (1) EXEMPLAR draws the rail, comes from the Henriksen barn and is a good price option.

Race 2

(7) CALL ME MAYBE is versatile and has put together a winning record this season. She has the speed and remains at this same level. (6) PAID IN CASH has the speed and will look for a bounce back effort this week. (8) P L HURRICANE has won three straight, including last week in this class.

Race 3

(1) WHITE BECOMES HER was a winner two back for trainer Baillargeon, draws the rail and drops into a competitive field. (3) CRACKER JACK comes from the Moreau barn, gets Henry in the bike and shows 1:52-1:53 speed. (5) FIVE TOWNS comes from a high percentage barn and has posted seven wins this season.

Race 4

(6) RESISTANCE FUTILE draws in the middle of the gate and is a sub-1:50 winner this season. (4) AMERICAN GI has the speed, comes from the Fine barn and is capable of the class jump. (2) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS kicked home in :27 last start and drops in class this week.

Race 5

(3) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE comes from the Moreau barn and just missed last week, by a head, at this level. (4) WORLD AWAY finished second last week in this class, draws well and has over $500K of back class. (1) WARRAWEE NEWTON draws the rail, drops n class and shows the speed. He may offer a price with his recent efforts.

Race 6

(8) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT has been racing at his best as of late and drops out of the Preferred for trainer/driver Henriksen. (3) INTENSE AMERICA posted back-to-back wins and draws inside for trainer Dion. (5) FEARLESS MAN drops out of the Preferred level and should be more of a threat in here.

Race 7

(10) MODERN LEGEND returns home after Grand Circuit stakes and is capable of overcoming post 10 in this lighter field. (9) NICKLE BAG was a winner last week and his record this season can't be overlooked. (8) CAMAES FELLOW has hit the board in three of his last four, comes from the Auciello barn and was a sub-1:50 winner four starts back.

Race 8

(2) VIP BAYAMA raced well last week at a high price and the better post might be the ingredient to a winning effort. (5) MEANT TOBE SHOOTER has hit the board in each of his last two starts and comes from the Goodwin barn. (6) IDEAL JET shows speed in the 1:51-range and that speed makes him a top threat in this class.

Race 9

(6) O U SEXY GUY has improved since entering the Pereira barn a few starts back and should be a big player in this class. (10) MMS LUCKY BOY comes from the Cirasuola barn and has hit the board in each of his last two. He's capable of overcoming the outside with MacDonald back aboard. (4) MISS PANTHERS draws well, comes from the Nixon barn and is capable of the class jump.

Race 10

(5) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL raced terrific last week considering he got away too far back. This week might be a different story with a better post at the same level. (1) REGAL SON draws the rail, comes from the Lindsey barn and has hit the board in each of his last two and four of his last five. (9) SOMEWHERE FANCY is capable of overcoming post nine and has posted back-to-back wins.

Race 11

(1) CANBEC KINGKAZIMIR draws the rail and just missed last week at this level. (6) MCCEDES can't be overlooked as he drops in class and has over a million to his credit. (7) ROCK ME AMASTREOS has been a player at this level for many weeks and is a price option for the triactor.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 12/20 Analysis + Pick Four Ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 5 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool ($5,877 C/O)

Race 10 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool ($17,317 C/O)

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

3,4,5,7 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,6,8,10 / 1 = $64

Best Bet: TINK AND TIGER (4th)

Spot Play: RYLEIGH’S LILLY (7th)


Race 1

In a really weak field (7) SHAKEITTOTHEMOON races inconsistently from week to week but is one of few who has shown a decent burst of speed. (5) IF I DIDN'T DREAM will be much closer turning for home and just needs some pace to close into. (6) TREAT FOR MY SWEET filly has been knocking on the door against this group; threat.

Race 2

(4) LONG TERM was roughed up early last out but is capable of beating this field. (8) ALWYSBREAKINHEARTS will be a very short price and faces a much tougher bunch; use caution. (6) SOUTHWIND SCORPION well bred gelding had some sneaky late pace last out and needed the start.

Race 3

(7) PREEMPTIVE BID has had tough racing luck but should find this spot a little more to his liking with a smooth trip. (1) EXTRAVAGANT ART rarely wins and needs to stay on a helmet until late. However the pacer finds a suspect bunch and will be used aggressively down in class. (2) JACKSON BERLOW is capable with a good setup in an evenly matched race.

Race 4

(3) TINK AND TIGER was roughed up last out going a very tough trip. The pacer has a good history at this level. (5) WASHINGTON HANOVER six-year-old pacer is very inconsistent but has been competitive against better on the year; threat. (8) BIG BRAD four-year-old stallion has the most ability in the field but has had very little to offer late; command a price.

Race 5

(5) BEST MAN HANOVER has been sharp in his last two and should be in a better spot turning for home. (1a) ARTACHE HANOVER will look to make it three wins in as many starts at the track. (1) MOSEE TERROR closed a lot of ground last out showing a ton of late pace off a ground-saving trip.

Race 6

(8) FLYING ROCKET gets sent out for red hot connections that are tough to leave off the top spot. (1) RED PASSUS gelding should be primed for a big effort down in class for capable connections. (2) SUNSET DREAMER has came a long way since the beginning of the year and will look to get a trip up close.

Race 7

(5) RYLEIGH'S LILLY mare should offer a big price and with a good setup could get a crack at the favorite late. (1) ALWAYS ABOUT KATEY has been consistently out kicked as a heavy favorite; use caution. (6) PARTY HANGOVER mare is racing deceptively well and will be blasting early sitting on the lead or in the pocket.

Race 8

(9) JUSTICE JET will offer a much better price after burning cash in two straight. The well bred trotter owns a big burst of speed and just needs a competent drive from a provisional driver for a chance to sweep past late. (7) FOX VALLEY VETO has been given perfect drives in three straight victories. The trotter has sat in before exploding late and will look to make it four straight wins at this level. (2) TIME OUTA JAIL doesn't look the best on paper but has talent and could hit the ticket underneath at a price.

Race 9

(6) ACCOUNT ROLLOVER raced big in two straight despite tiring late last race. The well bred 3-year-old adds lasix for the first time and just needs a similar effort to his last few. (2) SCOTTY MACH N was the driver's choice of three and has been full of pace late in three straight. (3) FASHION DELIGHT just missed last start and has been racing gamely.

Race 10

(5) FOUR HOUR NAP mare has never won at this level but has flashed some big moves in recent. (7) DP ANGEL mare is capable of pacing a big mile and should offer a fair price. (4) FOX VALLEY AMANDA was the driver's choice off a big win. (3) WINGS mare is in career form and needed her last start off a scratch.

Race 11

(3) SEXY CARD SHARK could need another start but is certainly capable against this bunch when right. (8) PRETTY PLACE mare could be the main threat late with an honest pace to close into. (6) INCREDIBLE FILLY mare gets a low percentage pilot but has been facing tougher. (1) WINDOW WIPER takes a big step up in class but has been racing gamely.

Race 12

(10) MONOPOLY MAN gelding went a huge effort last out parked the mile. The pacer is right back in against the same bunch and just needs to work out a better trip to make it two straight. (1) ON THE RADAR was roughed up last out being pressed most of the mile but gets sent out for red hot connections. (8) BELL VALLEY BILL owns a class edge on most of the field when right and looks to just now be back in racing shape; fires late. (6) HOT STREAK HANOVER is sneaky sharp right now closing big ground late in his last three.

Race 13

(1) YOU'RE MY HERO gelding has a ton of a ability and just needs to mind his manners for a big shot late. (6) R DUNESHINE drops in for a tag and finds a much softer spot to do some damage. (2) SONNY DEAN faces older but has some upside.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/20 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 26 - 130 / $130.50 BEST BETS: 4 - 8 / $14.80

Best Bet: DOCTOR BUTCH (7th)

Spot Play: ROCKEYED OPTIMIST (3rd)


Race 1

(1) MAJOR BOMBAY is now making his third start at this level. It doesn't get much easier than this race. You have to think he'll win. (7) MY TEMUDJIN N drops down and rates as a serious threat. (3) BREKAIN THE LAW was having a bad year before taking a three month break. Maybe Burke has him ready now.

Race 2

(1) FRANZO was a professional winner in this class last time. Tonight's race came up a bit tougher, but he still looks like the one to beat. (5) BRICK BAZOOKA is perfect in four career starts and had no trouble in his Big M debut. (6) BAD TO THE BONE moves into a new barn; improvement possible.

Race 3

(2) ROCKEYED OPTIMIST was a respectable third versus better most recently. Having drawn inside of his main foes, this race is his to win or lose. (8) JK PATRIOT has won four of five races while overcoming bad posts in his last two. (7) SMART ROKKER comes off some good races at Freehold. Will that form translate to the big track? (9) BAKERSFIELD picks up a catch-driver and looks primed for a big effort.

Race 4

This is a good race on a card full of hard-to-decipher races. (4) WARRAWEE NEEDY is still the co-fastest horse in history. He has been racing pretty well lately at Yonkers and might move up on the bigger track. (10) K-LEES SHAKENBAKE swept the field impressively with a mega-burst of late speed last week. Post 10 will make it hard, but if he can kick home in 26 seconds again, watch out! (1) TWIN B HOLLISTER & (3) TALKING BLUES both come in from Yonkers in solid form but have been settling for minor awards. (6) OK COMMANDER & (7) AMERICAN RAGE are capable with live trips.

Race 5

(1) JOKERMAN won't have an easy time in this bulky field, but he is razor sharp right now. The inside post should help keep him out of trouble. (7) ILIKETHEMTRASHY has been racing well just about every week; expect early speed. (11) DINNER GUEST moves into a barn that has started off the meet well. (10) I'M THE REAL MAJOR has won four of five starts and looks like another live Saratoga shipper.

Race 6

(2) SANTA FE BEACHBOY never got involved last time from a more outer post. Burke trainee looks like a reasonable play in a field full of legitimate contenders. (8) ODDS ON EQUULEUS was freshened up after the Red Mile and his comeback qualifier was pretty good against a top pacing mare. (10) GOLDEN RECEIVER is reportedly making his final career start. It would be nice if the $2.2 million career earner could go out a winner, but he'll have to earn it. (3) SHOOTERS DREAM & (7) AL'S HAMMERED only need a live trip to menace for the top spot.

Race 7

(2) DOCTOR BUTCH finally gets some class relief. One would expect that driver Tim Tetrick will take no prisoners in this spot. (3) SWEET ROCK is very sharp right now and a clear threat. (10) DIAL OR NODIAL is as good or better than the top two, but drew poorly.

Race 8

(6) GOLD ROCKS takes on some stiff competition this week but luckily drew to their inside. I'd expect him to be on the move early and sitting a good trip. (8) WINDS OF CHANGE qualified back nicely. He didn't have a breakout year, but this colt has some ability. (7) NATIONAL DEBT is not as bad as he has looked recently or as good as he looked at the beginning of the year; fits here.

Race 9

(6) LONEWOLF CURRIER seems to be getting a bit sharper each week; slight class drop. (5) MOJO TERROR has had pretty good success here. (1) MEMORY GAME comes in off a pair of open-length scores at Saratoga.

Race 10

(5) JOHNNY Z is winning every other week and this is supposed to be a good week. Notice he has won here this year. (8) TOP GEAR has good early speed and hails from a top barn. (1) GUNS AN ROSES is another with early zip and a high win percentage this year.

Race 11

(5) DREAMLANDS ART won by three lengths in his last try at this level. (2) DRAGON LORE has been racing well and should be in close attendance to the front; Gingras drives. (7) ROAR might need some help up front but has a clear chance.

Race 12

(8) MAJOR UPTREND moves into a new barn and adds Callahan. (1) WHAT I BELIEVE won by seven lengths in his debut for the Burke barn. (5) GLORY BEACH has rarely missed the board in upstate New York and seems like a fit here.

Race 13

(2) STORM THE BEACH doesn't inspire much confidence but simply looks best. (6) LUCKY LUCKY LEO failed to rally in his first start for Jean Drolet; maybe more now? (1) LITTLEBITACLASS draws better this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Charles Town (2nd) Our Love Story, 8-1
(6th) Cherokee Kitten, 3-1


Delta Downs (1st) Miss D K Dixie, 8-1
(4th) Just a Pup, 7-2


Fair Grounds (3rd) Fiery Dream, 4-1
(10th) Bluesman, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (5th) Jakob's Way, 7-2
(9th) Street Game, 3-1

Hawthorne (1st) Wildwoodsgreatest, 5-1
(7th) Royally Outfoxed, 10-1


Laurel Park (1st) Im Charming, 5-1
(3rd) Dragon Attack, 3-1


Los Alamitos (6th) Ebony Princess, 6-1
(7th) Magic Lily, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Shawklit Puddin, 4-1
(8th) Love Bunny, 6-1


Parx Racing (5th) Lawless Lily, 6-1
(6th) To Believe, 5-1


Penn National (5th) Black Lagoon, 4-1
(6th) Wavy Needle, 3-1

Sunland Park (7th) Dans Pot of Gold, 3-1
(10th) Precocious Derby, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Cassie's Harbor, 5-1
(7th) Bless Your Heart, 4-1

Turf Paradise (2nd) Mojave Mandate, 3-1
(4th) Lady Rosberg, 3-1


Turfway Park (1st) Seraglio, 5-1
(9th) It's All About Joy, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL line watch: Jump on the Bengals now
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet on now

Denver at Cincinnati (+3.5)

All decent teams deserve a long look when they get points playing at home, and the half-point here is pretty enticing. The public is hammering the Broncos 3-1 in early betting, but the sharps might be planning a late play on the Bengals. And why not? Cincinnati has won four of five and is right in the thick of a crazy race in the AFC North, and the Bengals need this one badly to set up a potential winner-take-all battle with Pittsburgh in Week 17. Denver has won four in a row of its own, but fissures are starting to show in an offense that has been south of 30 points in three straight games. Take the points now on this one. PS -- The long-term weather forecast calls for light snow and temps in the low 30s, and we know how much Peyton Manning likes bad weather.

Game to wait on

New York Giants at St. Louis (-5)

The Rams are 6-8 and out and their playoff chances were burned at the stake when QB Sam Bradford ‘s ACL was torn last August, but what the St. Louis defense has done since Thanksgiving is nothing short of remarkable – 12 straight quarters without giving up a touchdown. The Giants have won a couple in a row against weak competition (Tennessee, Washington), but New York has also long since cashed in its chips on this season. New York has not beaten a decent defensive team all season, though. Figuring that New York money through the middle of the week might knock this number down a half-point or so, so if you like the Rams you might find -4.5 later on.

Total to watch

New England at New York Jets (47)

This is a playoff game for the Jets, who need at minimum a competitive game to have even a puncher’s chance of bringing fun-loving Rex Ryan back as coach, but even a win probably won’t get it done. The Jets have had success in the past clogging the middle against Brady’s receivers and bringing up-the-middle pressure, and the Patriots don’t do too much outside the numbers. Plus, NE likes its ground game now with LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray. Another factor in play is New England’s tendency to start slow on the road (Green Bay, San Diego), resulting in scoring in the low 20s. The Under is worth a look here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report: Cowboys open as field goal faves versus Colts
By COLIN KELLY

They say there are two certainties in life: Death and taxes.

Well, here’s a third: Somebody is going to win the dreadful NFC South, and that someone will have a home playoff game, despite posting a sub-.500 record.

Week 16 “features” a contest that will go a long way toward determining which team will secure that berth, when the Atlanta Falcons (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) travel to the Big Easy to face the New Orleans Saints (5-8 SU and ATS).

The Falcons “played” their way into contention by losing five in a row earlier in the season, winning two in a row after that, then losing three of their last four. On Sunday, Atlanta fell to Pittsburgh 27-20 as a 3-point home underdog.

Meanwhile, New Orleans still has some work to do this week, with the Monday night game at Chicago. The Saints enter that contest on a 1-4 SU and ATS slide. Both the Saints and Bears could end up losing the division title to equally dreadful Carolina (5-8-1 SU, 7-7 ATS).

John Lester, said he’ll wait to see how the Saints look tonight before setting the number, but expects Drew Brees and Co. to open as touchdown favorites.

“The division berth could be on the line for New Orleans, and possibly Atlanta oddly enough, so this is a big one,” Lester said, adding the status of Falcons wideout Julio Jones – who missed Sunday’s game with a hip injury -- looms large. “The Falcons are obviously a different team without Julio Jones. The Saints are on a short week, but the home team in this series seemingly wins every time. If nothing major happens Monday night and Jones is out, the Saints will be around touchdown favorites.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion Seattle is rounding into playoff form and still has a shot to catch surprising Arizona for the NFC West title. The Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) stifled San Francisco 17-7 on Sunday, pushing as a 10-point home favorite while posting their fourth consecutive SU win (3-0-1 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games.

Arizona (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS), tied for the best SU record in the league and No. 1 against the oddsmakers, is now down to third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley. But the Cards’ defense helped them fend off St. Louis 12-6 last Thursday.

“We’re going to hold off on releasing a line for this game until the Cardinals’ quarterback situation becomes clearer,” Lester said. “We assume it’s going to be Lindley, but stranger things have happened. There is a drop-off between Drew Stanton and Lindley. I think we’ll probably open Seattle between 6- and 7-point chalk.”

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Indy (10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) clinched the AFC South with a 17-10 victory over Houston on Sunday, pushing as 7-point home chalk in its fourth consecutive SU win. But the Colts still have more to play for, with an outside shot at the AFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye.

Dallas (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) got out to a 21-0 lead at Philadelphia in the Sunday night game, gave all of it back and more in falling behind 24-21, then got back on track to claim a 38-27 victory as a 3.5-point pup. That gave the Cowboys the inside track to the NFC East title.

“This is as tough of a game to handicap as any on the board in Week 16, in my opinion,” Lester said. “Dallas got the big win against Philly, but it can’t afford to lose even once with the way the playoff picture is shaping up. The Colts are still playing for something, but they don’t need it nearly as much. We always get a ton of action on the Cowboys.”

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Defending AFC champ Denver hasn’t looked pretty lately, but has won four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 22-10 victory laying 4 points at San Diego. The Broncos (11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS) are tied with New England for the AFC’s best mark, but hold the No. 2 playoff slot since they lost to the Patriots.

Cincinnati (9-4-1, 7-6-1) sits atop a crowded AFC North after getting a key win Sunday at Cleveland, rolling over hapless Johnny Manziel and the Browns 30-0 catching 2.5 points.

“As I mentioned last week, the Denver defense is starting to come around,” Lester said. “Peyton Manning doesn’t have to throw the ball 40 to 50 times when the defense is playing well. Both teams can move up in the standings, so there’s a lot left to play for. I expect the wiseguys will be on the home dog and the under.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL 'Dog Bengals help books
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – Much like Week 12, NFL teasers again victimized Vegas sportsbooks on Sunday. Favorites went 11-3 straight-up in Week 14 games on Sunday and 6-6-2 against the spread, covering the number on 6-point teasers in 10 of 14 games. Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, summed up Sunday’s NFL betting action at his property in two words – “not good.”

The Kansas City Chiefs (-11), Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), New York Giants (-7), New York Jets (-3.5), Denver Broncos (-4.5) and Seattle Seahawks (-10) were among the favorites that were bet up at The Wynn. The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks were the only team of that group not to cover easily but did allow bettors to cash teasers on both them and their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, in a 17-7 win.

“We got hurt in teasers,” Avello said. “The Chiefs game was no good. That game I opened 11, the sharp guys took the 11 and the 10.5, and the house guys laid the 10 and the 10.5 going back up for much more. The Giants was a big game for me. I needed the Redskins, game went from (New York) 6 to 7, obviously they played well at times but not well enough to cover the spread.
“I had mostly Steeler money. The Jets game was a loser, went from 1 to 3.5. Broncos was a loser. The Seahawks, I had big money laying 9.5, so when I went to 10, all that money I gave back got sided on that game. After you hear my story, it doesn’t sound good, does it?”

Two of the three underdogs to win straight-up ended up costing The Wynn as well, including the Dallas Cowboys knocking off the Philadelphia Eagles 38-27 on Sunday Night Football. “The Cowboy game, I needed the Eagles,” said Avello, who closed Dallas at +3.5 (+100).

The second underdog that bit The Wynn was the Buffalo Bills, opening as 5.5-point home underdogs and getting bet down to +3.5 before beating the Green Bay Packers, 21-13. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers had his worst game of the season with just 185 passing yards and two interceptions, raising his season total to five. The Bills guaranteed themselves a .500 season for the first time since 2004 and ended a five-game winning streak for the Packers, who were Super Bowl favorites heading into Buffalo.

“Green Bay game was a loser for me, went from 5.5 to 3.5,” Avello said. “I was very disappointed in Green Bay. They lost the game, and that happens. But I didn’t like dropping passes, the Jordy Nelson pass. They just don’t do that kind of stuff.”

The third underdog winner – the Cincinnati Bengals – actually helped The Wynn because the public was in love with Johnny Manziel making his first career start for the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati opened as a 1.5-point road favorite at The Wynn, but bettors made Cleveland 2.5-point home chalk by kickoff. The Bengals ended up blanking the Browns 30-0 for the biggest victory on Sunday as Manziel flopped.

“The Bengal game was a good game, went from 1.5 Bengals to 2.5 Browns,” said Avello, who said last Friday that he did not understand the line move. “That game turned out well for us. Sometimes you see things right, sometimes you don’t. But that one did go kind of the way we talked about.”

The second-biggest win on the scoreboard Sunday involved the New England Patriots, who blew out the Miami Dolphins 41-13, turning a close game at halftime into a rout with a 27-0 second half. However, New England’s ninth victory in 10 games that clinched the team’s 11th AFC East title in 12 years did not crush The Wynn as badly as it hurt Miami’s playoff chances.

“The Patriot game was an interesting game for me,” Avello said. “I opened (the Patriots) at 8.5, I went as low as 7.5 and then back to 8. I had Miami money mostly, and I had a bunch of teasers on the Patriots.

“The game was ok because it didn’t fall in the middle there. If it fell in the middle, we’d have to pay everybody, so that one worked out ok.””

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

The ‘under’ produced an eye opening 13-3 record last weekend and that number could’ve been better too. Anybody who had the ‘over’ in the Oakland-Kansas City matchup received an early holiday gift thanks to the Raiders
punching in a meaningless touchdown at the end of the game. Through 15 weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 116-107-1.

Home/Away Tendencies

With only two weeks left in the season, there are some solid seasonal total trends to watch in Week 15.

Pittsburgh is 6-0 to the ‘over’ at home
Steelers host Chiefs

Tampa Bay and San Francisco both 5-1 to the ‘under’ at home
Buccaneers host Packers, 49ers host Chargers

Indianapolis is 5-1 to the ‘over’ on the road
Colts visit Cowboys

Detroit is 6-0 to the ‘under’ on the road
Lions visit Bears

Minnesota is 6-1 to the ‘under’ on the road
Vikings visit Dolphins

Buffalo is 5-1 to the ‘under’ on the road
Bills visit Raiders

30-Something

Even though the NFL is known as an offensive-first league these days, defensive struggles do occur and it’s pretty easy to figure out which games will be low-scoring based on the totals, this season in particular.

Through 15 weeks, there have been four games with totals that closed in the thirties and all four have gone ‘under’ the total.

Week 1 – Carolina 20 at Tampa Bay 14 (Under 38)
Week 2 – St. Louis 19 at Tampa Bay 17 (Under 37)
Week 14 – Seattle 17 vs. San Francisco 7 (Under 38)
Week 15 – Jacksonville 21 vs. Tennessee 13 (Under 39)

Why do bring this angle up? Because we have two more games pending on Sunday.

Buffalo at Oakland
Seattle at Arizona

Divisional Games

Only six divisional matchups in Week 16, five of them set for Saturday and Sunday. Trends and thoughts provided below.

Philadelphia at Washington (Saturday): High total (50 ½) in this game that will have both teams playing on short rest. Fortunately, not much travel is involved. Since Chip Kelly took over the Eagles, they’ve scored 33, 24 and 37 points against the Redskins. The difference for this game is that QB Mark Sanchez is behind center for Philadelphia and he’s in a funk. RG3 will start for the ‘Skins and he’s just as inconsistent as Sanchez.

Detroit at Chicago: Three of the last four in this series have gone ‘over’ the total including this year’s matchup on Thanksgiving as the Lions earned a 34-17 win. The Bears are starting Jimmy Clausen at QB and the total has dropped from 46 to 44. Knowing how good an ‘under’ bet (6-0) Detroit has been on the road, I’m surprised it hasn’t fallen lower.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This is the highest total (56) on the board. In Week 1, Atlanta nipped New Orleans 37-34 in overtime at home and the ‘over’ (51) cashed. Prior to this outcome, the ‘under’ was on a 3-0 run. Based on the limited defensive units and their ability to throw the ball often, it’s either ‘over’ or pass for me in this matchup.

New England at N.Y. Jets: The ‘over’ is on a 9-1 run in this series and even though the Patriots have the more explosive offense, New York has done its fair share of scoring. In their last two games against New England, the Jets have scored 25 and 30 points. In what will likely be Rex Ryan’s final home game as coach of the Jets, part of me believes New York keeps this close. With that being said, they’ll have to score 20-plus just to keep up with New England.

Seattle at Arizona: (See Below)

Non-Conference Matchups

Betting the ‘over’ in AFC-NFC matchups last season was one of the best seasonal total trends I’ve ever seen. It posted a 49-15 (76.5%) record and the Super Bowl between Seattle and Denver also went ‘over’ the number.


AFC vs. NFC

AFC East vs. NFC North
Team CHI DET GB MIN
BUF Under Under Under Under
MIA Under Under Over -
NE Over Under Under Under
NYJ Over Under Over Over
AFC West vs. NFC West
Team ARI SF SEA STL
DEN Over Over Under Under
KC Under Under Over Under
OAK Under Under Over Over
SD Under - Over Over
AFC North vs. NFC South
Team ATL CAR NO TB
BAL Under Over Over Over
CIN Under Over Under Under
CLE Over - Over Under
PIT Under Over Over Over
AFC South vs. NFC East
Team DAL NYG PHI WAS
HOU Under Over Over Under
IND - Over Over Over
JAX Over Over Over Over
TEN Over Under Over Under

Based on the above table, the ‘over’ has gone 32-28 (53%) in the 60 non-conference matchups played this season, which tells you how mind boggling last season was.

Delving into the numbers further, there have been two good looks this season. Playing the ‘under’ (10-5) in AFC East-NFC North matchups and the ‘over’ (11-4) in AFC South-NFC East games.

We have four non-conference matchups left and they all play this weekend.

San Diego at San Francisco (Saturday)
Minnesota at Miami
Cleveland at Carolina
Indianapolis at Dallas

Three Straight?

Despite getting 32 points in the second-half, the Saints and Bears still went ‘under’ their closing total of 53 ½. With that result, the “Thursday Night Total” system has lost in its past two situations. For those new to VI and this weekly piece, all you have to do is find out who played at home the previous Thursday and play the ‘over’ in their next game, regardless of the venue. Despite back-to-back losses, this particular angle has gone 9-4 (69%) mark this season and 24-6-1 (80%) dating back to last year.

For Week 16, the system calls for an ‘over’ play in the Giants-Rams matchup on Sunday since St. Louis hosted Arizona last Thursday.

This total opened at 45 ½ and has come down to 43. The St. Louis defense has given up a total of 12 points in its last three games but those efforts came against the Raiders, Redskins and Cardinals. While it’s too little-too late for New York, you can’t ignore the fact that the Giants have scored 28, 24, 36 and 24 points in their last four games.

Under the Lights

Including this past Thursday’s outcome between the Jaguars and Titans, the ‘over’ has gone 32-15 in primetime games this season.

Seattle at Arizona: Low totals are always dangerous to bet but based on this year’s numbers (See 30-Something), the ‘under’ is the looks. Seattle defeated Arizona 19-3 at home in Week 12 and I can’t imagine the Cardinals scoring more in this spot, especially with Ryan Lindley at QB. Arizona’s defense is holding opponents to 15 PPG at home, which has helped the ‘under’ go 5-2.

Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last three games and the offense appears to be content with running rather than passing. The Bengals have gone 4-2 in the second-half of the season but both losses came at home and they only scored 24 combined points in those setbacks. In night games this season, the Bengals have scored 17 and 3 points.

Fearless Predictions

Only three games went ‘over’ last weekend and leave it to me to be on the opposite side of one of them. Thanks Oakland! And not to hop on the bandwagon, but Johnny Football squashed the Teaser, which dropped the bankroll ($70) to negative numbers. With two weeks of regular season action left, we need to turn it around. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Merry Christmas!

Best Over: Giants-Rams 43

Best Under: Vikings-Dolphins 42

Best Team Total: Over 18 ½ New York Jets

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Giants-Rams 34
Over Chiefs-Steelers 38 ½
Under Lions-Bears 53

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cutler benched in favor of Clausen, Bears big dogs
Justin Hartling

Marc Trestman and the Chicago Bears have decided to bench disappointing Jay Cutler in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen. The Bears have dropped their past three games with Cutler throwing six interceptions.

"[Cutler] actually doesn't meant to much in the line by his past performances," Scott Kaminsky "The problem here is that Clausen may be the worst backup in the league so we have moved the game to Chicago +8.5 and dropped the total to 44.5."

Chicago is 5-9 against the spread this season and 1-2 ATS when dogs of a touchdown or more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Line Moves - Week 16
By Matty Simo

LAS VEGAS – Two NFC North contenders on a collision course to decide the division title in Week 17 have seen their Week 16 road games move more than one point in their favor. The Green Bay Packers (10-4) and Detroit Lions (10-4) are tied atop the standings, and each of them is trying not to look ahead to their showdown at Lambeau Field in the regular-season finale. But both have very winnable matchups this week, and the public has certainly taken notice in bumping them up from the opening numbers.

The Lions visit a Chicago Bears team on Sunday that surprised many in benching struggling quarterback Jay Cutler late this week in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen. Cutler has turned the ball over an NFL-high 24 times (18 interceptions and six fumbles lost), and many have been critical of his seven-year, $126 million contract with the Bears (5-9) due to his poor play since signing the extension. But some like Johnny Avello, The Wynn’s Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, do not agree with the move.

“I’ve got to be honest with you, I don’t like the move at all – I really don’t,” Avello said. “Has Clausen ever proven that he can be an NFL starter? I don’t think he has. If Clausen cannot prove that he is an NFL starting quarterback, what are the Bears trying to accomplish here?

“Are they trying to say, ‘Hey Cutler, you’re pretty bad, and we’re just looking for a chance just today to give you a cooling off period?’ Or they are saying to him, ‘You’re really not our future, and we may be looking to get rid of you.’ I mean, where are they going with this move?”

Avello added that he thinks the strength of Chicago’s opponent here has played a big role in the public fading the home team and supporting Detroit, which has gone from a 7-point road favorite up to -8.5 at The Wynn. The Lions have a lot to play for over the last two weeks while the Bears do not.

However, Avello also said bettors should expect a much better performance as Chicago head coach Marc Trestman attempts to save his job and prove Clausen can run his offensive system much like Josh McCown did successfully last year. Ironically, McCown parlayed that into a big contract and starting job with former head coach Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

“They are playing the Lions, and it’s a rivalry,” Avello said. “I would think at home, Chicago would have some motivation to play well here. Taking everything into consideration the way that the Chicago team’s been playing, I think the line should probably be more like Detroit (favored by) 4 points maybe on the road. This thing’s up to 8.5 now, so that’s 4.5 (points) right there.”

Meanwhile, a 21-13 loss by Green Bay last week on the road against the Buffalo Bills has actually made bettors back the Pack more for Sunday’s game at the Tampa Bay (2-12). The Packers opened as 10.5-point road favorites at The Wynn, and they are now up to -12 against the Bucs.

Avello said a lot of that has to do with Green Bay’s ability to bounce back from losses despite being a losing team on the road. Avello also said Tampa Bay’s inability to score much lately factors into the move, as the team is averaging just 15 points during a four-game losing streak.

“Green Bay hasn’t been the greatest of road teams, but after last week’s game, you’d think there would be a little bit of motivation to win because they’re also in that same hunt,” Avello said. “I think most of the line movement this week is based on the Green Bay game last week at Buffalo playing poorly.

“Obviously, (the Packers) score a lot of points, and Tampa Bay doesn’t. You look at Tampa Bay, most of their games, they’re scoring 14, 17. How do they stay with this team offensively? Or does their defense shut Green Bay down? I don’t think there’s any defense that shuts Green Bay down.”


Las Vegas SuperBook - Week 16 Betting Moves

Rotation Team Open Current Move
103 CHARGERS - - -
104 49ERS 2.5 1.5 -1
105 EAGLES 8.5 7.5 -1
106 REDSKINS - - -
107 VIKINGS - - -
108 DOLPHINS 6.5 6.5 0
109 PACKERS 10 12 -
110 BUCCANEERS - - -
111 LIONS 4.5 8 3.5
112 BEARS - - -
113 FALCONS - - -
114 SAINTS 6.5 6.5 0
115 PATRIOTS 10 10.5 0.5
116 JETS - - -
117 CHIEFS - - -
118 STEELERS 3 3 0
119 BROWNS - - -
120 PANTHERS 3 3.5 0.5
121 RAVENS 3.5 5.5 2
122 TEXANS - - -
123 GIANTS - - -
124 RAMS 5.5 6.5 1
125 BILLS 5.5 6.5 1
126 RAIDERS - - -
127 COLTS - - -
128 COWBOYS 1 3.5 2.5
129 SEAHAWKS 7.5 7.5 0
130 CARDINALS - - -
131 BRONCOS 3.5 3 -0.5
132 BENGALS - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Moves - Week 16
By Mike Rose

We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 16!

(Rotation #106) Washington +7.5 – There probably isn't all that much reason to think that Washington can hang around in this game, knowing that it really looks like it has given up on the season, while the Eagles clearly have a lot to play for with the NFC East title and a Wild Card spot both absolutely up in the air. QB Robert Griffin III looked like he was playing with some passion last week against the New York Giants, but the rest of his teammates, especially in the second half, couldn't say the same. If the Eagles though, can't get the ball in RB LeSean McCoy's hands early and often, this could be a long game which comes right down to the wire, which is more or less what happened the first time these two ran across each other earlier this year. WR DeSean Jackson would love to knock his former mates out of the postseason.

Opening Line: Washington +8
Current Line: Washington +7.5
Public Betting Percentage: 69% on Philadelphia

(Rotation #109) Tampa Bay +10.5 – The Packers were definitely square last week against the Bills, and it ultimately, showed. This week, they're square once again, and the argument could be made that they are squarer now than they were before. No one figures that WR Jordy Nelson, QB Aaron Rodgers, and the gang are capable of putting up two straight stinkers of games offensively, and that's why most are lining up to lay double digits on the road against a bad Tampa Bay team which could still get the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Still, Head Coach Lovie Smith knows what it is like to go against these Packers from his days in the NFC North, and he would love nothing more than to give the fans of Tampa Bay their first home win of the season for Christmas.

Opening Line: Tampa Bay +10.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +10.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Green Bay

(Rotation #117) Kansas City +3 – The Steelers are always public, and they are going to be even more public this week with their playoff chances arguably hanging in the balance. Winning this game would probably seal the deal, but a loss would leave Pittsburgh needing a win and help in Week 17 to get into the postseason. This is a playoff game for Kansas City, as it would be eliminated with a defeat in this one. QB Alex Smith does a nice job taking care of the football on a regular basis, and he very likely will end up having a strong game against a suspect Pittsburgh defense which has had major problems stopping opposing quarterbacks this year.

Opening Line: Kansas City +3 (+100)
Current Line: Kansas City +3 (-110)
Public Betting Percentage: 61% on Pittsburgh

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Eagles (-8, 50) at Redskins – 4:30 PM EST

After the Eagles destroyed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia was in the driver’s seat of the NFC East race with a playoff berth in sight. However, consecutive home losses to the Seahawks and Cowboys the past two weeks have dropped Chip Kelly’s team to 9-5, jeopardizing their postseason hopes. Now, Philadelphia takes on a pair of teams just playing out the string, starting with a 3-11 Washington squad.

Philadelphia fell in a 21-0 hole against Dallas last Sunday night in front of a nationally televised audience, but rallied back for 24 straight points to take a three-point advantage in the third quarter. However, the Eagles’ defense had no answer for Dez Bryant, who burnt Philadelphia for three touchdowns, while DeMarco Murray rushed for a pair of scores. Philadelphia lost, 38-27 as 3 ½-point favorites, as the rushing game which obliterated the Cowboys two weeks earlier for 256 yards, ran for just 75 yards in the loss.

The Redskins have won just six of their past 30 games, capped off by a 24-13 setback to the Giants last Sunday as seven-point road underdogs. The Robert Griffin III quarterback controversy continues to linger over this fractured franchise, as the Heisman Trophy winner relieved the injured Colt McCoy to throw for 236 yards and a touchdown. Washington led 13-10 in the third quarter before a pair of Eli Manning touchdown tosses to Odell Beckham, Jr. gave the Giants the win and sent the Redskins to their sixth straight defeat.

Washington head coach Jay Gruden doesn’t have many choices at this point on who will start under center, as Griffin gets the nod on Saturday. During this six-game skid, the ‘Skins have covered just once, coming as nine-point underdogs in a 17-13 setback at San Francisco last month. Griffin is slated to get the start, even though Washington is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in the four games in which he has started and finished this season.

The last time these teams hooked up back in Week 3 at Lincoln Financial Field, Griffin sat out due to injury as Philadelphia and Washington went back-and-forth the whole way. The Eagles picked up a 37-34 triumph, but failed to cover as four-point favorites, as Nick Foles tossed three touchdown passes and threw for 325 yards. LeSean McCoy left the game with concussion-type symptoms, rushing for just 22 yards on 20 carries for the Eagles. Washington blew an early 17-7 lead as Kirk Cousins put up a career-best 427 yards in the defeat for the Redskins.

The Eagles have won four of the past five visits to FedEx Field, but Chip Kelly’s team has split its six road contests this season following a 6-2 away record in 2013. Since the start of last season, the Redskins are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS against division foes, while losing four straight home games to NFC East opponents.

Chargers at 49ers (-1, 41) – 8:25 PM EST

Both these California squads enter Saturday’s action on losing streaks, but at least San Diego still has a shot to salvage its season. The Chargers (8-6) are coming off consecutive home losses to the two top teams in the AFC (New England and Denver), while scoring just 24 points. However, the Lightning Bolts are still hanging around in the playoff race as San Diego owns tiebreaker advantages over Baltimore and Buffalo, while heading to Kansas City next week for a possible elimination game.

San Diego has not been kind to backers following a 5-0 ATS start, as Mike McCoy’s club has covered just once in the past nine games. The Chargers put up their second-fewest points in last Sunday’s 22-10 setback to the Broncos, the sixth loss in the past seven tries to Denver since 2012. The good news for San Diego is it held Denver to five field goals and just one touchdown, but Philip Rivers was intercepted twice and the Bolts were limited 56 yards on the ground.

What about San Francisco? The 49ers (7-7) played for the NFC title in each of the past three seasons, but Jim Harbaugh’s team isn’t headed to the playoffs this year, while the rumors swirl about their head coach exiting for another job in 2015. San Francisco’s offense has disappeared recently by putting up just 23 points during a current three-game skid, while falling at rival Seattle last week, 17-7 as 10-point underdogs. Colin Kaepernick snapped a three-game stretch of throwing at least one interception, but the Niners’ quarterback has broken the 200-yard passing mark just once in the past five games.

The last time these teams met up back in 2010, the Chargers dominated the 49ers at Qualcomm Stadium, 34-7 as 10-point favorites. Rivers sliced up the Niners’ defense for 273 yards and three touchdowns, while San Francisco racked up only 192 yards of offense. Series history doesn’t mean much since they play so infrequently, but the most remembered matchup came in Super Bowl XXIX when the 49ers crushed the Chargers as 18-point favorites, 49-26.

Due to San Francisco’s inability to score of late, the ‘under’ has hit in five straight games, while the Niners are 5-1 to the ‘under’ in their first season at Levi’s Stadium. The Chargers have cashed the ‘over’ in three of the past four road contests, but they have scored 14 points or less in four of the previous six games.

The Niners have covered just twice in six tries at Levi’s Stadium, with the two ATS wins barely hitting against Philadelphia and Kansas City early in the season. The Chargers are playing only their second road game since Week 10, as San Diego saved its season in its previous away contest in a last-minute win at Baltimore in Week 13. San Diego has won two of three games against NFC foes this season, while San Francisco has dropped two of three contests in interconference action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Eagles face must-win spot

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (9-5) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-11)

Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Line: Philadelphia -8, Total: 50

The Eagles look to get back into the win column when they head to the nation's capital on Saturday for a meeting with the struggling Redskins.

Philadelphia is in a must-win situation after losing at home to the Cowboys 38-27 last week. Washington, meanwhile, lost 24-13 to the Giants for its sixth straight SU loss (5-1 ATS). Earlier in the season on Sept. 21, the Eagles beat the Redskins 37-34 as 4-point home favorites. They have now won three straight SU in this head-to-head series and they’ve covered in two of those games.

Philly has also done quite well in its trips to Washington, winning six of the past 8 meetings SU. Robert Griffin III is going to be under center for the Redskins, as Colt McCoy reinjured his neck in the loss to New York last week and was placed on IR.

The Eagles are 0-6 ATS off a double-digit home loss over the past three seasons. But they are facing a Washington team that is 6-17 ATS as an underdog over the past two seasons and 4-15 ATS since 1992 when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 35 or more points.

The only significant injury for Philadelphia is LB Trent Cole (6.5 sacks), who is doubtful for this matchup. RB Alfred Morris (groin) is expected to play for the Redskins in this game, but teammates RB Roy Helu (toe), OT Trent Williams (shoulder), LB Keenan Robinson (knee), DE Jason Hatcher (knee) and S Brandon Meriweather (toe) are all questionable for Saturday.

The Eagles are coming off of two home losses in a row and now must win on the road against an inferior Redskins team in order to give themselves a good chance of playing in the postseason.

QB Mark Sanchez (1,752 pass yards, 10 TD, 9 INT) really struggled against Dallas, throwing for 252 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Sanchez has been extremely careless with the football, throwing seven interceptions in the last five games he’s started for Philadelphia. He will need to take care of the football in this game or Washington could pull off the upset and really crush any Philly hopes of making the playoffs.

With Sanchez not throwing the ball very well, the Eagles will heavily feature RB LeSean McCoy (1,132 rush yards, 4 TD). McCoy rushed for 64 yards on 16 carries against the Cowboys last game and the Eagles will likely try to give him the ball at least 20 times in this game. However, McCoy was held to 22 total yards in the Week 3 win over Washington despite getting 19 carries and two targets.

WR Jordan Matthews (56 rec, 709 yards, 7 TD) was held without a catch against Dallas last week and will need to be a lot better as Mark Sanchez’s go-to-guy. In the Week 3 victory, Matthews burned the Redskins for eight catches, including two touchdowns. This Philadelphia defense will be really amped up for this game.

The Eagles have forced 25 turnovers this season and have scored four defensive touchdowns. They’ll now take on the turnover-prone Robert Griffin III.

The Redskins aren’t playing for much at this point in the season, but they do have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against a division rival. QB Robert Griffin III (1,138 pass yards, 3 TD, 3 INT) was solid in relief duty for the injured Colt McCoy (1,057 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) in a loss to the Giants last week. He went 18-of-27 for 236 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the game. The Eagles allow a lot of passing yards, giving up 257.4 yards per game through the air (28th in NFL). They do, however, force a lot of turnovers, so Griffin will need to really take care of the football in this one.

The Redskins will need their wide receivers to make plays in this game. WRs Pierre Garcon (62 rec, 638 yards, 3 TD) and DeSean Jackson (50 rec, 957 yards, 5 TD) were held to just seven catches for 51 yards combined against New York. These are two of the Redskins’ top weapons and they cannot underperform in this game if the Redskins are going to win at home. It was this duo that kept Washington in the Week 3 meeting, as the pair combined for 16 catches, 255 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Defensively, the Redskins have allowed only 101.0 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL). They should be able to keep LeSean McCoy in check again, but they’ll need to find a way to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable in the pocket.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chargers, 49ers clash in SF

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (8-6) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (7-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: San Francisco -2, Total: 41.5

The Chargers head to San Francisco on Saturday for a game that they absolutely must win in order to keep playoff hopes alive in the AFC.

San Diego lost 22-10 as 4-point home underdogs against the Broncos last week and San Francisco wasn't much better, falling 17-7 as 9.5-point road ‘dogs in Seattle. The Chargers have lost two straight (SU and ATS) and the 49ers have dropped three consecutive games SU and four straight ATS. This matchup will feature a pass-heavy San Diego team that still has a shot at making the playoffs going up against a San Francisco defense that ranks third in the league in passing defense.

The 49ers, meanwhile, will try to pound the rock against a Chargers defense that is allowing just 108.6 rushing yards per game. San Diego is 2-8 ATS after the first month of the season this year and 11-24 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss to a division rival since 1992. However, the team is 55-36 ATS in road games in the second half of the season, and 50-31 ATS in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in that time.

RB Frank Gore (concussion), RB Carlos Hyde (ankle), NT Glenn Dorsey (forearm) and LB Chris Borland (ankle) are among many players questionable for the 49ers, while WR Keenan Allen (ankle) and LB Donald Butler (elbow) are both doubtful for the Chargers, while teammates RB Ryan Mathews (ankle) and TE Ladarius Green (concussion) are both questionable.

The Chargers have dropped two straight contests and will now need to win a difficult matchup in San Francisco in order to stay alive in the playoff hunt. QB Philip Rivers (3,639 pass yards, 27 TD, 13 INT) struggled against the Broncos last week, throwing for 232 yards with a touchdown and two picks in the game. Rivers will need to be more careful with the football in this game, as he’s going up against a 49ers defense that is extremely tough to throw against.

When Rivers is dropping back, he’ll likely look to Antonio Gates (58 rec, 662 yards, 10 TD) often. Gates is Rivers’ security blanket and is coming off of a game in which he caught six passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. With WR Keenan Allen (77 rec, 783 yards, 4 TD) unlikely to play, WRs Malcom Floyd (45 rec, 777 yards, 5 TD) and Eddie Royal (48 rec, 589 yards, 6 TD) will try to fill this void at wideout.

With RB Ryan Mathews’ (330 yards, 3 TD) status in doubt for the second straight week, RBs Donald Brown (172 rush yards, 2.4 YPC, 0 TD) and Branden Oliver (458 rush yards, 3.4 YPC, 2 TD) will be relied on to carry the football against the 8th-ranked rushing defense in football. Oliver rushed for just 26 yards on 12 carries against the Broncos, but he did catch four passes for 44 yards.

The Chargers defense ranks amongst the top-15 in both passing and rushing, and will now go up against a 49ers offense that has scored just 23 points total over the past three weeks.

The 49ers were eliminated from playoff contention after their loss to the Seahawks last week, but this team does have pride and is not just going to roll over against the Chargers at home. San Francisco’s defense has allowed only 20.5 PPG over the past two weeks, but will need to get something positive out of the offense.

QB Colin Kaepernick (3,051 pass yards, 16 TD, 10 INT) has not had a multi-touchdown passing game since Week 6 of the season and has thrown for just one touchdown with four picks over the past three games. He is going to need to get himself going against this Chargers defense, as he now has to prove that he is the right guy to lead this team going forward.

RB Frank Gore (804 rush yards, 3 TD) rushed for 29 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks last week, but he suffered a concussion in the game. Gore is questionable to play on Saturday and if he does not, it’ll be a huge opportunity for backup RB Carlos Hyde (333 rush yards, 4 TD). Hyde is banged up as well, as he hurt his ankle against the Seahawks. Hyde has run the ball effectively this season (4.0 YPC), but if he can't go, then RB Alfonso Smith (4 carries, 6 yards), would be the main ball carrier.

WR Anquan Boldin (74 rec, 920 yards, 4 TD) is this team’s top receiver and will need to be more involved this week, as he has caught only nine passes for 95 yards over the past three games combined.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 16:

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+5, 41.5)

Ravens’ OC Gary Kubiak vs. Texans’ offensive issues

Gary Kubiak was chased out of Houston with pitch forks and torches once fans soured on the Texans long-time coach following last season’s dreadful 2-14 campaign. Houston’s ownership buckled under pressure from the football faithful and showed Kubiak the door despite much success and a great relationship with his players.

Kubiak’s coaching pedigree has been on display all season, turning around a dismal Ravens offense. Baltimore is putting up 26.9 points per game – almost a touchdown more than last season – and has the rushing game ranked Top 5 in the NFL (132.6 yards per game) despite losing his top RB in Ray Rice and having Bernard Pierce in and out of the lineup all year.

Kubiak doesn’t know a whole lot about Houston QB Thad Lewis – one of two options for the Texans – but knows everything there is about QB Case Keenum, who he spent just about every waking moment with when Keenum got the No. 1 nod in Houston last year. Kubiak also has detailed information on almost every other Texans player, so expect John Harbaugh to pick his OC’s brain over thoroughly in prep this week.

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (N/A)

Browns’ success vs. NFC South vs. Panthers’ woes vs. AFC North

While the focus is on the quarterback situation for both teams – Johnny Manziel’s second start and Cam Newton’s pre-crash health – one angle slipping through the cracks is how bad the Panthers have been against the AFC North.

This season, Carolina is winless in its three non-conference games. It lost 37-19 to Pittsburgh in Week 3, 38-10 to Baltimore in Week 4, and tied with Cincinnati, 37-37, in Week 6. The Panthers are 1-2 ATS in those games, getting outscored 112-66 by AFC North teams. But it doesn't end there. Going back four years to the last time the NFC South faced the AFC North, Carolina went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in non-conference competition. That's a grand total of 2-5 ATS against the AFC North in that four-year stretch.

Cleveland has handled the lowly NFC South this season. The Browns edged New Orleans 26-24 in Week 2, beat Tampa Bay 22-17 in Week 10, and got past Atlanta 26-24 in Week 12 – going 2-1 ATS in those games. Odds for this game are currently off the board (as of Thursday afternoon) with Newton’s status still up in the air.

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 55)

Colts’ small receivers vs. Cowboys’ stingy secondary

It’s not too often the Dallas secondary sees eye-to-eye with the receivers they’re covering. The Cowboys starting corners and safeties only go as tall as 6-foot-2 SS Barry Church, with CBs Brandon Carr (6-foot), Orlando Scandrick (5-foot-10), and Sterling Moore (5-foot-10), and safety J.J. Wilcox (6-foot-6) having to play “up” to their competition most weeks.

Enter a diminutive group of wideouts for Indianapolis which also tops out at 6-foot-2 WR Donte Moncrief. Top threat T.Y. Hilton (5-foot-9), veteran WR Reggie Wayne (6-foot), and rarely used Hakeem Nicks (6-foot-1) aren’t winning any slam dunk contests anytime soon. That lack of size downfield hasn’t hindered the Colts' passing production, coming into Week 16 ranked No. 1 with an average of almost 311 yards per game. So, where’s the mismatch? I’m getting to it.

Regardless of its small stature, the Cowboys secondary has only allowed 20 passing touchdowns this season – ninth fewest in the league – and has allowed opponents to score just 30 percent of their touchdowns through the air in the last three games. The Cowboys also have two red-zone interceptions on the season. They’ll force Indy to try and punch the ball into the end zone with the run, something the Colts have accomplished only nine times this season – three of those scores coming from QB Andrew Luck.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+7.5, 36.5)

Seahawks’ flaccid fourths vs. Cardinals’ crunch-time closers

The Cardinals made a name for themselves crushing teams in the fourth quarter this season. Heading into Week 16, Arizona has outscored opponents 102-40 in the final frame. But that late-game dominance has disappeared along with the Cards’ first and second-string quarterbacks.

In the last five games, Arizona has managed to score just 11 total points in fourth quarters. The Cardinals went scoreless in the final 15 minutes in three of those five outings and managed just a field goal in the final frame against St. Louis last Thursday. While the offense has gone MIA, the Arizona defense holds steady down the stretch. The Cards have allowed only nine fourth-quarter points in that five game span and have pitched three FQ shutouts of their own.

The Seahawks average 6.2 points per fourth quarter on the year, but have mustered only 10 total points in their last five fourth quarters – an average of just two points per final 15 minutes. In their last meeting, Seattle took a 19-3 lead over Arizona into the fourth and both teams went scoreless to finish the game. If the Cardinals can keep it close with some points on the board, they can put the Seahawks on lockdown in the final stanza Sunday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday Football doubleheader: Eagles at Redskins, Chargers at 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+7.5, 50)

The Philadelphia Eagles are in must-win territory as they prepare to visit the Washington Redskins on Saturday afternoon. A loss to Dallas on Sunday in a showdown for first place has left the Eagles needing to win their final two games - and even that may leave them on the outside of the NFC playoff picture. "The only thing that matters is our next game," coach Chip Kelly said. "If we don't beat Washington, it's kind of a moot point anyway."

Philadelphia rallied from a 10-point deficit in Week 3 to post a 37-34 victory over the Redskins, which marked Kirk Cousins' first start of the season in place of an injured Robert Griffin III. Since then, Washington's quarterback carousel has seen Colt McCoy replace an ineffective Cousins before yielding to Griffin, who was benched after three straight sub-par outings. McCoy reclaimed the starting position but was placed on injured reserve Tuesday, putting Griffin back under center.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened the 'Skins as 8-point home dogs, but that's dropped slightly to +7.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Expect mostly cloudy conditions with temperatures hovering around 41°F at gametime. Northeast winds between 5-10 mph could have an affect on the matchup.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Eagles opened -8.5 and have dropped down to -7.5 (-105). Their first meeting of the year had Nick Foles and Kirk Cousins at the helm and Saturday it will be Sanchez against RGIII. Since their bye week, Washington has covered only one of their last five losing all five SU. Sanchez continues to be inconsistent, picking up where he left off with the Jets, so this game boils down to how well Sanchez performs and protects the ball. If he has a stellar game, the Eagles figure to win easily. But needing Sanchez to play well is sometimes too much of a hurdle to overcome." Scott Kaminsky.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (9-5): Philadelphia rallied from a 21-point deficit before fading late against the Cowboys to suffer back-to-back defeats for the first time since October 2013. Quarterback Mark Sanchez threw for only 96 yards in a home loss to Seattle on Dec. 7 and was intercepted twice against Dallas - the fourth time in seven games he has been picked off two times. Consistency continues to be an issue for the running game, with LeSean McCoy averaging 57 yards rushing in the past two losses after amassing 289 yards and a pair of scores in the previous two games. Jeremy Maclin had 10 catches for 154 yards in Week 3, his fourth 100-yard game in five meetings versus Washington.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-11): Griffin threw for 236 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 46 yards on five carries, but was also sacked seven times in last week's 24-13 loss to the New York Giants - Washington's sixth consecutive defeat. "It's not been a fun year," Griffin said. "We've had a lot of turmoil, a lot of things going on. At the end of the day, you suit up and when your number's called, be ready to play." Wideout DeSean Jackson, released by Philadelphia in the offseason before signing with the Redskins, had five receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown versus the Eagles in September but insisted he has no extra motivation for the return matchup.

TRENDS:

*Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
*Over is 5-2 in the Eagles' last seven.
*Under is 4-0 in Washington's last four home games.
*Favorite is 6-2 in their last eight meetings.

CONSENSUS: 69 percent are backing the Eagles to cover the spread.



San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 40.5)

San Francisco was eliminated from postseason contention and the San Diego Chargers will look to avoid a similar fate when they head north to visit the 49ers on Saturday night. The Chargers have to win their final two games and hope for plenty of help to claim one of the AFC's wild card slots. Quarterback Philip Rivers did not practice the past two days and leading receiver Keenan Allen is done for the season with a fractured collarbone.

Rivers, who has not missed consecutive practices since prior to the AFC title game in 2007 said he had "no doubt" he would play Saturday against San Francisco, which suffered its third straight defeat last week at Seattle to end its postseason hopes. The 49ers have been a soap opera all season with speculation revolving around the future of coach Jim Harbaugh. They added another chapter Wednesday with the release of defensive tackle Ray McDonald on suspicion of sexual-assault charges.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The majority of books opened the Niners as 3-point home faves, but that's been bet down to -1.5 at most places.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for mostly cloudy skies in the Bay Area at kickoff with temperatures around 58°F. Western gusts between 5-10 mph are also expected at gametime.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened San Francisco -3 (Even) and sharp money came in on San Diego and knocked the line down to -1 (-110). With San Francisco out of the playoff picture and having trouble scoring, it's reasonable to see a little movement towards San Diego. But Rivers has been playing with a very bad back for at least three weeks. We felt San Francisco’s defense, which has been playing solid for the most part, will stifle Rivers." Scott Kaminsky.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (8-6): Running back Ryan Mathews (ankle) sat out last week's game and also did not practice Wednesday, another blow to an offense that has scored only 24 points in back-to-back home losses to New England and Denver. "It's just a two-game streak against the two top teams in the conference," Rivers said. "It's not like we've lost to the bottom of the barrel." Rivers has 27 touchdowns passes against only 13 interceptions, but he has been picked off as many times (10) as he has scoring passes in the past eight games. Antonio Gates hauled in his 10th TD pass last week, joining Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots as the only tight ends to reach double digits four times.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-7): San Francisco's offense has gone belly-up over the past two months, managed a combined 23 points during the three-game skid while failing to score more than 17 in seven of its last eight games. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is averaging 145.3 yards passing with one touchdown and four interceptions in the last three - two against his nemesis Seattle - and has completed less than 58 percent of his passes in five of the last six outings. The running game is also in disarray after Frank Gore (concussion) and rookie Carlos Hyde (knee) were hurt last week. The defense has acquitted itself well, permitting 16.6 points over the past five games.

TRENDS:

*Chargers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine overall.
*Under is 5-0 in 49ers' last five overall.
*49ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games.
*Over is 8-3 in Chargers last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent are presently backing the Bolts to cover the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 16

Chargers (8-6) @ 49ers (7-7)—San Diego had ball in Denver red zone five times last week, scored 10 points; no bueno. Niners got eliminated from playoff contention in fierce 17-7 struggle in Seattle last week, their third loss in row- they scored 23 points (two TDs on 26 drives) in those games, but two of three were against Seahawks. 49ers are just 3-3 in their new stadium, scoring total of 30 points in losing two of last three there. Chargers lost to Patriots/Broncos at home last two weeks; their playoff hopes are hanging by thread. Bolts are 3-5 in last eight games; three of their last four wins were by 3 or less points. San Diego won 48-19/34-7 in last two meetings; they’re 2-3 vs 49ers in Bay Area. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread. Last five 49er games stayed under the total.

Eagles (9-5) @ Redskins (3-11)—RGIII is back under center with McCoy (neck) hurt; he looked better playing in relief last week but goal line fumble just before half deprived Skins of 17-7 lead and led to second half collapse in Swamp. Washington lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they were outscored 51-7 in losing last two home games, both vs non-playoff teams (Bucs/Rams). Philly lost last two games, allowing 62 points; they won eight of last 11 games with Redskins, winning 37-34 (-6.5) in first meeting this year, despite Cousins throwing for 427 yards as Washington outgained Philly by 132 yards in game that was 21-20 at half. Eagles won four of last five visits here, losing only in Reid’s lame duck year in ’12. Five of last seven Eagle games went over total; four of last five Washington tilts stayed under.

Vikings (6-8) @ Dolphins (7-7)—Six of last eight Minnesota games were decided by 3 or less points or in OT; Vikings are 1-5 on road without Peterson, with only win in OT at Tampa- they’re 4-3 as road dogs this season. Miami was outscored 48-3 in second half of last two games, playoff chances are remote; after fading badly in last two weeks LY (lost 19-0/20-7 with chance to make playoffs) pressure on Miami coaches to deliver winning record with cloud of Jim Harbaugh hanging over their heads. Dolphins are 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with all three wins by 13+ points. Vikings allowed only four TDs, two FG on foes’ last 11 red zone drives. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-8 on road. AFC East home favorites are 4-7. Six of last nine Viking games, seven of last nine Miami games stayed under total.

Packers (10-4) @ Buccaneers (2-12)— Pack is scoring 21.1 ppg on road, 41.1 at Lambeau. Tampa Bay hired Aaron Rodgers’ coach from Cal to be OC this year, but he had heart problem and never worked; now he’s off to be a head coach in CFL; Bucs’ offense suffered this year without a real OC. Packers are 9-0 on grass, 1-4 on carpet; they’re 1-2-1 as road favorite this year, 3-4 SU on road with two of three road wins by a FG- they allowed 20+ points in last five games. Bucs lost nine of last ten games, are 0-6 SU at home, 1-2 as home dogs, losing home games by 6-2-31-6-1-10 points. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 1-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 10-11, 3-2 at home. Seven of last eight Buc games, three of last four Packer games stayed under total. Green Bay is 17-9 vs spread in game following last 26 losses.

Lions (10-4) @ Bears (5-9)—Clausen (1-9 as NFL starter) gets nod over Cutler for the dysfunctional Bears. Detroit won three in row, six of last eight games, but they’re 3-3 on road, 0-2 on grass, scoring 7-6 points in losses at Carolina/Arizona. Lions haven’t been negative in turnovers since Week 5; they’re +7 in last six games, with only four turnovers. Detroit is 6-10-1 in last 18 games as road favorites. Chicago just lost consecutive primetime home games; they’ve allowed 35.3 ppg in last three games, look like team that’s given up- they face divisional rival here that they’ve lost 10 of last 13 meetings with, but Lions lost five of last six visits here, so trap game for them with divisional showdown with Packers up next. Detroit (-7) spanked Bears 34-17 Thanksgiving Day, holding Chicago to 13 yards rushing (8 attempts). 11 of last 13 Lion games, four of last five Chicago home games stayed under total.

Falcons (5-9) @ Saints (6-8)— Saints are 2-5 as home favorites this year after being 18-3-1 in that role from 2011-13; NO lost last four home games, and they were favored by average of six points. Atlanta is 4-0 in divisional games, 1-9 vs everyone else; they’ve lost three of last four games overall, are 2-4 in true road games, winning at Tampa Bay, Carolina- four of their five road losses are by 10+ points. Falcons (+3) beat Saints 37-34 in season opener, averaging 10.1 ypa, so if they win here, Atlanta holds tie-breakers over NO in divisional race. Road team won last seven Saint games, after losing first seven. Atlanta is 4-0 when allowing less than 20 points, 1-9 when allowing more. Short week for NO as they face arch-rival with division lead on line. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total.

Patriots (11-3) @ Jets (2-12)—NE won 10 of last 11 games, covered six of last seven; they’ve won six of last seven games with Jets, but are 2-3 in last five visits here, with one win by more than a FG. Jets are 5-9-1 vs spread in game following their last 15 wins; they’ve scored 16 or less points in three of last four games overall, are 2-2 as home underdogs this year, losing home tilts by 8-7-14-20-3 points, with wins over Raiders/Steelers. Since 2003, Patriots are 17-9-2 as a divisional road favorite, 1-1 this year (compared to 15-16-1 as home favorites); Pats (-9.5) struggled to 27-25 win over Jets in Week 7, with Gang Green running ball for 218 yards and outgaining NE by 100 yards in game with no turnovers. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Patriot games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5)—Pitt wins AFC North by closing with pair of home wins; underdogs covered five of its six home games this year, with Steelers 1-3 as home faves, winning at Heinz by 3-7-17-20 points, with odd losses to Bucs/Saints. Chiefs snapped 3-game skid by thrashing Oakland last week; they’re 4-3 on road this year, with last five road games all decided by 5 or less points- they’re 5-2 as underdogs. Steelers won three of last four games with Chiefs, all decided by 4 or less points; KC lost its last four visits here, losing by 6-6-38-3 points- their last win in Steel City was in 1986. Pittsburgh gained 7+ ypa in six of its last seven games. AFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread; AFC North home favorites are 8-13, 5-7 at home. Six of last eight Pittsburgh games went over total.

Browns (7-7) @ Panthers (5-8-1)—If Falcons/Panthers win this week, they play in Georgia Dome next week for division title; Carolina is likely to still have Anderson (2-0 as starter this year) at QB with Newton’s back mending. Panthers won first two games, last two games but went 1-8-1 in between; they’ve run ball for 190 ypg the last three weeks, which takes pressure off defense. Cleveland lost last three games, allowing 27 ppg; Manziel was terrible in his starting debut last week, but defense allowed 244 rushing yards and JFF doesn’t play defense. AFC North teams are 12-2-1 vs NFC South this year and Steelers lost both games. Panthers won three of four series games, winning 20-12 in only meeting played here. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-7 vs spread; AFC North road underdogs are 8-3. Nine of last ten Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Ravens (9-5) @ Texans (7-7)—Houston is 3-3 at home and not totally out of it yet, but they’re down to #3 QB Lewis (2-4 as NFL starter, with Bills/Browns); they brought back former starter Keenum as his backup. Texans are 2-4 as underdogs this year, 3-3 SU at home, losing three of last four at Reliant. Baltimore won four of last five games, outscoring last two opponents 31-3 in second half; Ravens are 4-3 SU on road, 2-2 as road favorites, winning by 2-31-7-15 points. Ravens won seven of eight series games, winning 30-9 in Baltimore LY- they had punt return TD and defensive score in game, but lost here 43-13 in ’12, their only loss in four visits. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread; AFC south underdogs are 9-11, 3-5 at home. Four of last five Houston games stayed under the total.

Giants (5-9) @ Rams (6-8)—St Louis hasn’t allowed a TD in any of last three games (36 drives) but limited nature of its offense with QB Hill makes them dicey proposition when laying more than FG. Rams won three of last four home games, beating Seattle, Denver; they’re 2-2 as favorites, 1-2 at home (5-5 as HF under Fisher). Giants scored 60 points in winning last two games after losing previous seven, as explosive WR Beckham has revitalized offense; Jersey had double digit halftime leads in three of last four games. They were lucky last week when Griffin fumbled just before crossing goal line in air, then recovered it OB in end zone, or they would’ve been down 17-7 at half. Giants won last five series games, last four by 10+ points; Rams’ last series win was in 2006. Big Blue hasn’t been to St Louis since ’06; they won 26-21/41-13 in last two visits to Arch.

Bills (8-6) @ Raiders (2-12)—Huge trap game for Buffalo after upsetting Packers at home last week, despite not scoring offensive TD (had punt return TD); Bills lost last seven visits to Oakland, with last win here in 1966- they lost last three visits here, in series where home side won last four games, with three decided by 3 or less points. Buffalo won three of last four games, covering all four; they’re 3-2 as favorites this year, 3-3 SU on road, despite being underdog in all six games- they lost three of four games on grass. Raiders beat Chiefs/49ers in last two home games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games- five of their last six losses are by 10+ points. AFC West non-divisional dogs are 10-6 vs spread, 2-2 at home. Last six Buffalo games stayed under total; three of last four Oakland games went over.

Colts (10-4) @ Cowboys (10-4)—Visiting team covered last seven Dallas games. Cowboy RB Murray has broken hand, unlikely to play (well); Pokes won four of last five games, scoring 31+ points in all four wins- they had 10 TDs on last 21 drives in last two games. Dallas continues to be shaky home favorite; they’re 1-4 this year, 7-24 under Garrett, and lost last three home games SU, losing to Giants-Redskins-Arizona. Indy clinched AFC South, needs Patriot or Denver loss to have shot at first round bye Dallas is 9-6 in series, winning last two by 7-3 points; they lost five of last seven visits here, with last win in ’96. Colts allowed three defensive TDs in last two games, sneaking past Browns/Texans. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; three of last four Indy games stayed under. Interesting game, but human nature says Colts clinching division hurts their effort here.

Seahawks (10-4) @ Cardinals (11-3)—Ten weeks ago, Ryan Lindley was out of the NFL; how he is starting at QB for the NFC’s #1 seed as they try to hang onto their NFC West lead. Arizona is 7-0 at home this year, allowing total of 34 points in last three home games- they lost 19-3 (+7) in Seattle four weeks ago, in game where neither team gained 300 yards but Seahawks had 18-yard advantage in field position. Seattle won its last four games (3-0-1 vs spread), allowing 27 points (three TDs on 38 drives); they’re 4-3 on road, but won last two away games, at Philly/San Francisco- they won six of last nine series games but lost six of last eight visits to desert. Arizona is 4-2 as an underdog this year. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four Seattle games, seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under the total.

Broncos (11-3) @ Bengals (9-4-1)—Denver clinched its division but is still playing for first round bye, #1 seed in AFC; Broncos won last four games, winning at KC/SD, while allowing only three TDs on 22 drives in those two games. Broncos won last four series games, three by 5 or less points; they’ve won five of last seven visits here, but they’re 1-3 on artificial turf this season, with only win at the Jets- they’re 4-8 vs spread on carpet in Manning era. Cincy won four of its last five games; they’re still fighting for AFC North title, but they lost last two home games, to Browns/Steelers. Bengals are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine non-divisional home games; they’re 10-4-1 in last fifteen games as a home underdog. Four of last five Denver games, five of last six Bengal games stayed under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Green Bay at Tampa Bay December 21, 01:00 EST

Green Bay's five game win streak came to a screeching halt this past week as Buffalo Bills behind some shutdown defense handed Packers a 21-13 loss in front of a frenzied Ralph Wilson Stadium crowd. This week, Packers should have little trouble taking full advantage of an inconsistent Buccaneers squad. However, you do bet Pack at some risk. Double digit favorites haven't been the best choice this season as they're 9-8-1 against the betting line. Besides, for whatever reason Packers have struggled cashing tickets on the road when facing a team with a losing record posting a 3-8 ATS mark last 11 situations. Final betting nugget - Packers have failed to cash last three vs Tampa and are on a 3-9-1 ATS skid last thirteen meetings with Bucs.


Detroit at Chicago December 21, 01:00 EST

Lions, thanks to a nail-biting 16-14 win over Minnesota are currently 'Kings' in the North and look to remain atop the heap when the visit Chicago Bears a squad falling apart at the seams having lost six of the past eight. Lions who have already defeated Bears once this season make it a series sweep for the second year in a row. Always a challenge laying a TD or more in a division game and even more perilous laying the points on the road. However, there appears to be enough in Lions favor in this situation to counteract such concerns. Matthew Stafford, Johnson and Tate combination should shred this Bear defense that has allowed the most points in the NFL behind the second worst pass protection in the league. Consider Lions knowing Bears are ridding an 0-5 ATS skid as home underdogs, 1-7 ATS slide vs the division in December.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

SAN DIEGO (8 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 7) - 12/20/2014, 8:25 PM

Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) off a loss against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


PHILADELPHIA (9 - 5) at WASHINGTON (3 - 11) - 12/20/2014, 4:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 73-103 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-103 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 73-103 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Trends

PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
San Diego is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games