Saturday 12/19/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 12/19 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (52 - 88 / $182.40): FIRSTCLASSALLTHWAY (11th)

Spot Play: COLE HEAT (7th)


Race 1

(6) MOONNN well bred 2-year-old looks like a good one and could be ready for a big effort in his debut. (8) MICRO FORCE has had two tough trips in a row. The pacer adds lasix for the first time; threat. (5) BETTERLUCKYTHANGOOD should have more to offer in his second lifetime start.

Race 2

(7) BOHEMIA gets sent out for capable connections against a suspect bunch. (2) DARN SKIPPIE rarely wins but did race well last start. (1) JITTERBUG JACK should be in line for a ground saving trip up close.

Race 3

(9) LUCKY DALI well bred filly is very inconsistent from week to week but one of her best efforts beats this field. (2) FIGHTING MAJORETTE freshman filly pacer has been used aggressively in her last two miles and could use a smooth trip for her best chance. (1) FLIGHT ON TIME fits in with this bunch nicely and gets the best post.

Race 4

(2) JOHN JAY beat a better bunch last week and has lots of upside. (3) MR PICKPOCKET might be better coming off a helmet. The pacer will offer better value this week and is a threat to hit the ticket. (8) SIR ARTHUR D faces weaker and has beaten better on the year.

Race 5

(7) SAVOYA CRUISER gets sent out for a high percentage barn against a weak and inconsistent field. (5) SANDY WIN adds lasix for the first time and has flashed ability. (4) OUR MISS LEAH has just been racing evenly; use underneath.

Race 6

(4) BELL VALLEY TIGER will be much more involved early this week; threat. (10) DUNESIDE ART needs to find a way into the race but will offer a big price. (9) NANCYS SKYSCAPE owns wins at this level on the year but is probably best used underneath.

Race 7

(4) COLE HEAT veteran pacer is sharp and finds an evenly matched field. (7) ST ELMO HERO will probably try from off the pace this week after tiring on the lead last out. (6) CAM B ZIPPER gets a negative driver change; use underneath.

Race 8

(8) KRUSTY THE CLOWN has been competitive at this level and will offer another big price. (7) B R FLYING DALI has been super in a new barn; threat. (6) CAMWISER comes off a game win at this level but probably needs more; command a price.

Race 9

(9) TIMMYLYNN pacing mare needed her last start and will offer the best price of the contenders; fires early. (10) RYLEIGH'S LILLY is the horse to beat by far but will offer low value and could be vulnerable without a fast pace to close into. (8) PARTY HANGOVER has been knocking on the door against this bunch but just can't seem to get over the hump; use underneath.

Race 10

(9) SOUTHWIND SCORPION any kind of effort to his last race makes him dangerous at a price; threat. (1) MY BUDDY NINKSTER was disappointing last out and should have had more off a good trip; command a price. (8) BNGS EXPRESS wasn't as sharp last out but had shown a big burst of speed in his prior efforts.

Race 11

(1) FIRSTCLASSALLTHWAY put in a big effort against better last week and has a history of getting it going right around this time of year. (2) MAJOR MONET just doesn't win very often; use underneath. (3) FOX VALLEY CUPID is another horse who rarely wins but is a threat to hit the board.

Race 12

(2) EVA BELLA flashed a lot of ability a few months ago and finds a weak field full of question marks. (9) LUCY FLEW just needs a good setup to threaten late. (3) KIMBERLY R veteran mare's best effort is good enough but the horse has lameness issues every other week; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/19 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 3,5,8/2,3/1,4,5,7/5,6,7/1,4,8 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,7/1,4,8/1,7/1,4,7 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 3,9/1,8/3,6,7/1,2,6 = $36

MEET STATS: 150 - 461 / $778.70 BEST BETS: 22 - 42 / $75.40

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 42 / 122.60

Best Bet: OUR HOT MAJORETTE (6th)

Spot Play: CHICAGO HANOVER (10th)


Race 1

(5) JACK REACHER tried it first up in the Autumn series final vs. a very strong winner and was easily repelled. There is no foe like that here and he is the horse to beat. (3) JULERICA continues to power home but needs to be closer turning home to get there on time. (8) WIN ONE SOON faces easier here and should threaten.

Race 2

(3) APPRENTICE HANOVER produced an incredible kick to win his first of the year off a 5-month break last week. Call to repeat despite the class rise. (2) PRESCOTTS HOPE was nailed right on the line last time after missing three weeks action. He returns quicker here and must be respected. (1) THUNDER STEELER won off a lucky trip last start and is more likely for a minor share here.

Race 3

(7) SANTO DOMINGO started up too late last time but is clearly in his best form now and faces similar here. Zeron likely pulls the trigger earlier in the mile this time. (4) SUMMIT CITY NATE improved last time when he was on a 7-day cycle and can threaten the choice here. (5) TWIGGYS TWICK has faced better and shown good closing power in her last two without threatening. She has upset possibilities here.

Race 4

(5) VITAL SIGN is in top form and goes first off the claim here. He should be tough with any reasonable trip. (6) CRAFTY MASTER improved with Filion as many do and he retains the top teamster here; using. (7) VEGAS ROCKS gets Henry back here which could be a difference maker.

Race 5

(8) MACH A WISH ships in sharp and should be able to get good positioning near the front early here; slight nod. (1) KAYLA GRACE can land closer to the front at the start with her improved post and that makes her a win threat. (4) RUBIS PRESCOTT has beaten better in the past and Nixon could have her ready to roll here off the break; beware.

Race 6

(7) OUR HOT MAJORETTE is on a major roll and shows no signs of slowing down. She should take another here. (1) DOCS HOLLYWOOD will be passing most of these late and has an outside shot of nailing the choice if the early pace gets too hot. (8) P L HURRICANE raced tough to win last week but this post does her no favors here with so many early speed types signed on.

Race 7

(1) VELOCITY DRIVEN is in the best form of his career and should get another favorable pace setup here. (4) CAMAES FELLOW showed some grit down the lane last week and when he gets good he can throw in a wicked mile. Don't sell him short here. (7) NICKLE BAG races much better off a helmet and could get a better trip and convert here.

Race 8

(9) MARQUIS VOLO trotted a 27 1/5 third 1/4 on his way to a brush and crush win last week. If he reproduces that effort here, the rest are racing for 2nd. (3) SILVERHILL VOLO raced okay off a 4-week break but tired late. Expect sharp improvement here with the quick return. (4) MUSICAL RHYTHM blew up at the start last time and lost all chance. If he stays flat he should make the ticket here.

Race 9

This race comes down to the two Moreau trainees. Slight nod to (8) CAJON LIGHTNING who has been flawless since being sold. (1) MOHAWK WARRIOR, the choice's stablemate, could sit his pocket and try to pass late here. (2) THE ROCK looks best of the rest to complete a chalky tri.

Race 10

(3) CHICAGO HANOVER paced an incredible third 1/4 of 26 1/5 at Flamboro while winning off a long break. He could be a square price on the class rise and tonight's the night to jump in. (7) UFDRAGONS ROCKET couldn't cold off an improving rival last time but fits this class well. (6) TWOMICKEYTRIP also fits this class well and will likely be sent on a speed mission here.

Race 11

(6) STAR COVER has rounded back into top form and can take this group if he leaves hard for good position early. (1) SHOCK N ROCK closed well for 2nd when free last week and the winner of that race has been hot this month; using. (2) LYONS LEVI LEWIS has not faced earlier competition all year but will probably be bet off the board and is no lock.

Race 12

(8) COMPANY MAN wasn't far behind some tough company in Chicago. Most of these look easier; top call. (7) MCKINNEY went a brutal trip last week. He could be right there with a better trip. (2) SUNNY BEACH DAY was a very impressive winner last week and should share here. (1) SOUTHWIND AMAZON faces easier and should be able to work out a decent trip for a share. (10) ANDREIOS KARDIA should be passing many of these late for a share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/19 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 44 - 129 / $244.00 BEST BETS: 4 - 10 / $13.20

Best Bet: RODEO ROMEO (2nd)

Spot Play: BLATANTLY BEST (7th)


Race 1

(10) WINDSONG GORGEOUS showed some signs of life last week and paced faster (1:51 3/5) while finishing sixth than most of these have all year. I’ll take a shot with him at the better price this time. (2) OPEN WATER gets class relief upon arrival from Yonkers and merits serious consideration. (9) TALKING BLUES could flash high early speed switching to the big track. He went his lifetime best here last year.

Race 2

(1) RODEO ROMEO should cruise at 1-5. (2) SAID NO ONE EVER has been very sharp at Philly and will get tested in a big way tonight. (6) WILD AGAIN comes off a pair of decent attempts and seems worth using underneath. (4) WINTER BLAST is down from Saratoga in form.

Race 3

(3) ROLLAROUNDTHEWORLD has looked very good in the morning while preparing for his pari-mutuel debut and faces a questionable group. I imagine he’ll be taken off the pace but as long as he avoids traffic he should get the job done. (5) MAJOR IN LIFE comes off a string of decent efforts and seems like the top underneath horse. (8) THESPYWHOLOVEDME has won four straight at Saratoga. Will he handle the big track?

Race 4

(1) THAT’S MY OPINION has been close to awful but finds himself facing a blank group. If he can’t beat this field, it may be time to find a different venue, perhaps Freehold. (5) SOME MAJOR BEACH raced well with Gingras added last time and should show early zip again. (6) MR DE LUCA fits nicely with this bunch and should get involved at some point in the mile. (4) MARINER SEELSTER makes his second start in two months and is eligible to improve.

Race 5

(6) A REAL MIRACLE raced evenly a week ago after missing two months of racing. This barn has been bringing in live horses all meet and has a shot to score at a price here. (3) CLASS SIX has been on a roll out of town. We’ll get to see how fast and good he is tonight. (2) BUBBIE BOY was an easy winner at Yonkers and has had past success here. (1) DANCIN HILL is sharp now.

Race 6

(3) JENERAL PATTON is a horse with a good turn of speed that has been racing rather well at Philly. I’ll take a shot here in a field with no standouts. (7) AIMO HANOVER finds a field without much early zip and could take charge. (5) THAT’LL BE THE REI could get aggressive in this spot and reap the rewards. (6) SWEET BEACH is a trip player with a shot.

Race 7

(6) BLATANTLY BEST was super two starts back then ran into a salty group last time. It might look like he is facing the same class as last week but this group is easier. (9) OUR DRAGON KING was used hard last time and paid the price. He can do better than sixth in here. (3) MADIBA MAGIC N went down the road from post eight last time at Yonkers. Down Under import may be this good.

Race 8

(3) CASTLE FLIGHT won against lesser three back and couldn’t handle the tough trip in this class two starts ago. He was an even sixth versus better most recently. (5) LETS ROCK TOGETHER ships in sharp and has proven plenty fast enough. (4) MONTERA ships in for a barn that has been known to send out a winner or two. (6) CAN HE GO switches barns; improves?

Race 9

(9) WINDS OF CHANGE was raced conservatively and finished up strong in his first start with Lasix added. I’m thinking we’ll see a bit more aggression this time around. (2) MR FRANKLIN N was short after three weeks on the sidelines; very dangerous tonight. (3) SHOOTER’S DREAM has been putting in an honest effort every week and merits inclusion at least underneath.

Race 10

(1) BONDI HANOVER drops down against a field that seems to be mostly moving up a touch in class. Expect a brush early in the mile and hopefully he hangs in there. (11) MOONLIGHT RANSOM seems to do some of his best work with Zeron in the bike; dangerous with a trip. (3) TWIN B SPEEDO picks up Gingras and has proven capable of going a fast enough mile to win this race.

Race 11

(8) YOU’RE MY HERO won at first asking in the new barn at Freehold and while this may seem like a big jump up, this group doesn’t look very imposing. (6) RED ROCK may be the best horse in this race and you’ll get a good price because Abbatiello doesn’t get bet strong at the Big M. (1) CHECK’S COMMODORE comes off a win and could be hustled away from the inside.

Race 12

(3) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP continues to improve each week and should get a live trip from one of the two sharp horses inside. (4) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE seems to be in career form and may be sharp enough to compete with this group. (7) MELBERBY BEACH has high speed and a lifetime mark that blows this group away. (1) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND is impossible to ignore despite the class hike.

Race 13

In a race without much form, (11) AHDOUGHNOLUM changes connections and has shown some good lines here at this level. (2) TREND SPOTTER technically drops in class. (6) BRENT MONTANA got up for second in this class at big odds on Dec. 5.

Race 14

(6) KNOCKING AROUND has the best form in this field by far and deserves the call. (4) OK GALAHAD had no shot from post eight at Yonkers most recently but his prior form was fine. (7) OUREA NOURRIR changes barns and should be able to keep his form. (9) CARD SHOCK takes a slight reduction in claiming price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Black Doblin, 8-1
(7th) Roman Revival, 3-1

Charles Town (3rd) Secret Six, 8-1
(6th) Gianna Bella, 7-2


Delta Downs (2nd) Gabby's Got Grace, 4-1
(5th) Drakarys, 3-1


Fair Grounds (1st) Cameron Rules, 3-1
(2nd) King's Player, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (6th) Viva La Kid, 6-1
(10th) Nauset Beach, 8-1

Hawthorne (4th) Angel Talk, 6-1
(5th) Two Lions, 3-1


Laurel Park (4th) Snuggley Bear, 3-1
(9th) Salsalito, 7-2


Los Alamitos (4th) Adios Princess, 4-1
(9th) Lymebyrd, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) Riding in the Wind, 4-1
(2nd) O'Bannon Boy, 9-2


Parx Racing (2nd) Mama Zee, 7-2
(7th) Love Came to Town, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Adrift, 5-1
(7th) Roque Bluff, 4-1

Sunland Park (5th) Easy Topper, 6-1
(9th) Forin Sea, 6-1


Tampa Bay Downs (4th) All Aces, 8-1
(9th) Desert Steel, 6-1

Turf Paradise (1st) Horse Feldhaus, 6-1
(8th) Angie's Gold, 3-1


Turfway Park (3rd) Superstitious Swan, 7-2
(4th) Flashlight, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

Some NFL trends to ponder with Week 15 upon us.........

-- Atlanta is 0-9 vs spread in its last nine games.

-- Eagles covered once in last nine games as a home underdog.

-- Chiefs are 13-5 in last 18 games as a road favorite.

-- Vikings covered ten of their last twelve games.

-- Dolphins covered once in their last seven games.

-- Tennessee is 7-19-2 in its last 28 games as an underdog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Villanova at Virginia December 19, 12:00 EST

A pair of ranked schools clash Saturday afternoon when 12th-ranked Villanova Wildcats (8-1, 5-2-1 ATS) pay 8th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers (8-1, 4-3 ATS) a visit. Defense the moniker for these two programs with Wildcats allowing 57.6 PPG, Cavaliers 57.1 PPG scoring will be at a premium. Consider 'Under' knowing Wildcats have a 6-2 'Under' stretch going while Cavaliers have played 'Under' in 10-of-13 on home court when allowing =< 60 points

Michigan State at Northeastern December 19, 12:30 EST

Michigan State Spartans (11-0, 7-3 ATS) off to the second-best start in school history get a chance to match the programs best ever start (2000-01) when they visit Northeastern Huskies (7-3, 4-4 ATS) hailing from the Colonial Athletic Association. Izzo's troops lead by Denzel Valentine (18.6), Bryn Forbes (12.0) are netting 79.8 while allowing a stingy 56.8 on 35.1% shooting, 26.6% from long range.

Huskies no slouches at putting the ball through the hoop drop 77.0 with David Walker (21.5) and Quincy Ford (16.3) contributing half of those points. However, Huskies defense is a work in progress as they're allowing 71.1 on 45.8% shooting.

Still, short changing Huskies against the betting line could be costly. Huskies have already knocked off one ranked team, the then 15th-ranked Miami-Florida with a spectacular 3-point shooting show, canning 12 of their 22 attempts from behind. Huskies 7-2 ATS in an underdog roll are worth a second look especially if they're handed double digits as Huskies are a sparkling 10-1 ATS in the roll.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

719 WICHITA STATE @ 720 SETON HALL 12:00 PM

Take: WICHITA STATE -3.5

The early results this season have not been anything this Wichita State entry is accustomed to. Injuries played a pivotal role as the Shockers went through a rough stretch. But now almost everyone is back in action, and it looks like Wichita State is back to business as usual.

Seton Hall is enjoying a fine start to the campaign. The Pirates are very young, but there’s some talent on hand here and Kevin Willard’s coaching hot seat might be cooling off a bit. Seton Hall could really bolster its resume with a win today.

For me, this is experience vs. youth. The Shockers are extremely big game tested, and while the injuries were clearly a huge factor in the early losses, the thought here at least is that Wichita State kind of needs this game. Like it or not, the team’s residence in the Missouri Valley Conference isn’t going to do them much good in terms of enhancing the ledger for at-large purposes. Obviously, the Shockers are going to be chalk to win the MVC and claim the automatic for March Madness. But just in case there’s an upset, they need to make sure there aren’t any more non-league losses, so I’d consider this an important game for Gregg Marshall and his troops.

As for Seton Hall, this is a huge opportunity. The Pirates are 8-2 but there are no signature wins, and that makes this a gigantic game for the Pirates. This is an athletic young team to be sure. But young is the key word, and aside from senior transfer Derrick Gordon, the entire roster is basically all freshmen and sophomores.

That’s really the key for me. Seton Hall has a chance to be really good with the raw talent they’re fielding. But they basically have no true big game experience, and I make that a potential liability today that would play right into the strength of the very battle tested Shockers. The visitors are also in off a superb performance against Utah, and they’ve got the look of a team that’s about to go on another of their patented rolls.

The Shockers have not fared well against the spread in recent non-league games. But that’s offset by their terrific road ledger, and most of those were in the role of favorite. I would assume the majority of the tickets will be on the Shockers here, and this time I’ll join that club by spotting the points with Wichita State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015

Your Bonus Play for Saturday, December 19, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Chicago Bulls and the NY Knicks. Both teams had to play last night, so look for a slower pace. The New York Knicks don't have a lot of depth and this is their second game in as many nights after playing at Philly last night. They have a losing record at home and the under is 6-2-1 in the Knicks last nine vs. the Eastern Conference. Chicago is 5th in the NBA in points allowed, tops in FG shooting defense, and the Bulls are on a 10-4-1 run under the total. The Bulls are allowing an average of 88.8 points during the winning streak.

Play Chicago/NY Knicks Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Arizona vs New Mexico

*3 Star NCAA FB Free Pick* New Mexico

The Arizona Wildcats didn't want to be playing in the New Mexico Bowl. Last year, they were in the Fiesta Bowl. It's a big drop from being in the Fiesta Bowl to being in the New Mexico Bowl, which is the first bowl game being played of the entire bowl season.

Motivation is everything this time of the year, and I'm not sure Arizona will be highly motivated for this game. On the other side, New Mexico is definitely going to be motivated and ready to go on Saturday.

The Lobos were a total disaster when Bob Davie arrived in 2011. They had lost 35 of their last 38 games, and the program had become a joke. Davie has rebuilt this program far faster than anyone could have guessed. The Lobos run the ball extremely well, and all year long Arizona's defense has struggled against the run.

Arizona has given up at least 30 points in 7 of their last 8 games. The Wildcats aren't likely to be able to stop the Lobos rushing attack. There's no doubt Arizona has more overall talent, but I don't see them being even close to as motivated. New Mexico has been wanting to get back to a bowl game for a long time, and now they get to do it at home. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is 2-7 ATS in bowl games in his career.

Take New Mexico.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

BYU vs Utah

Bonus Play BYU (#203)

BYU opened the season with three consecutive games that were decided in the final seconds, notching wins over Nebraska and Boise, followed by a one point loss at UCLA. But since a late September no-show loss at Michigan, the Cougars have gone 7-1.

BYU’s lone loss during that span came at Missouri in the week that Tigers coach Gary Pinkel announced he was retiring due to cancer while his team came together in protest over a racial incident on campus. In other words, it was a VERY tough spot for BYU.

Cougs frosh QB Tanner Magnum put up far superior numbers to Travis Wilson this year, and the Cougars are as big and physical in the trenches as it gets in college football. Their receiving corps is loaded, their defense solid. Given the intangibles favoring the Cougs, looking to send Mendenhall off win a huge win against their rivals, I have no hesitation recommending a play on BYU plus the points here.

Utah has been drawing significant support in recent bowl games, in large part due to Kyle Whiitingham’s impressive track record: 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in his eight bowls with the Utes. They blew out Colorado State 45-10 last year. And bettors certainly haven’t forgotten outright bowl upsets against the likes of Alabama, Cal, and Georgia Tech (twice) in the Whiitingham era.

The Utes have also enjoyed great success in recent seasons against their in-state rival. The Utes have won each of the last four meetings since 2010 – three tight victories by a touchdown or less, and a 54-10 wipeout in Provo back in 2011. The two teams didn’t meet in the regular season this year, making this matchup a highly anticipated revenge meeting for the slight underdog.

That being said, BYU has two key elements working in their favor when it comes to the likelihood of bringing their ‘A’ game. First, while Utah is excited to play BYU, the Utes got screwed in the bowl pecking order; jumped by lesser teams to create more attractive matchups. They were right here in Vegas last year – in fact, three of their last four bowl appearances have come right here in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Multiple players were quoted saying that they wished they would have gone somewhere else. And the one previous time they weren’t particularly excited to make the trip to Vegas was the Utes lone SU bowl loss of the Whittingham era, a 26-3 wipeout by Boise.

And secondly, it’s very meaningful that BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall and his staff stuck around to coach this game, despite their impending move to Virginia immediately following the contest. It’s not just Mendenhall either. Offensive coordinator Robert Anae, QB coach Jason Beck, RB coach Mark Atuaia, OL coach Garrett Tujague, defensive coordinator Nick Howell and LB/special teams coach Kelly Popinga, are all moving to Virginia as well, but they’re all sticking around with Mendenhall to coach one last game for BYU, ensuring continuity on both sides of the football here.

Yes, all of this stuff is peripheral to the matchups on the field. But the matchups on the field provide a nearly dead even handicap, with no clear edges for either side. Utah started the season 6-0, including impressive wins against the likes of Michigan, Oregon, Cal and Arizona State in the process. But the Utes cooled off considerably down the stretch, suffering losses to USC, Arizona and UCLA while failing to cover the spread in tighter than expected wins against PAC-12 bottom feeder Oregon State and Colorado. The only really good game Utah played after the midway point of the season came at Washington, and the Utes were outgained in that contest, winning by margin only due to four Huskies turnovers.

That being said, creating turnovers was something the Utes did very well this season. Their defense picked off 19 passes, the second highest total in the country for a Power 5 conference school. And the Utes created at least two takeaways in nine of their twelve games. But the Utes offense isn’t loaded by any stretch of the imagination, especially with leading rusher, senior RB Devontae Booker out for the year following a stretch of seven 100+ yard rushing games in a nine week span. The Utes went 0-2 ATS after Booker got hurt…. Take BYU.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

Las Vegas Bowl BYU vs Utah

Bonus Play Utah

The Cougars being an independent agreed early to take part in the Las Vegas Bowl as many BYU graduates live and work in the Las Vegas area. With the Cougars formerly of the Mountain West Conference it was a no brainer for BYU to take this invitation. Unfortunately for Utah fans they were invited a bit later. And because so, the Utes faithful have had a hard time getting a good seat to this bowl. It’s a sore spot in Salt Lake City, especially considering the rivalry between these schools. Although it is a bit ironic that the Holy War this year is being staged in Sin City.
While BYU should have the majority of fans both teams are well acquainted with Sam Boyd Stadium. Not only was BYU a core member of the Mtn West, so were the Utes. While the Cougars went independent the Utes were snatched up by the PAC 12. Both teams were higher ranked earlier in the season, especially a Utah squad which made the top five at one point. This is the first meeting in two years, coming off a yearly showdown when they were conference rivals. Utah won each of the past four meetings outright with the last three coming as underdogs.
BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall took the job at Virginia, but will remain here to coach his former team. Not sure that’s going to be a positive for BYU. Both he and Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham had coached at these schools the past 11 years.
When breaking down the stats against Power Five 6 win teams and better the edge is clearly with the favorite here. Because of its independent schedule the Cougars only faced two teams that ended the year with a non-losing record, Michigan and UCLA. BYU lost both those games by 16 ppg and 170 ypg. Utah on the other hand posted a 5-3 record against the same type of competition outscoring the competition by 6.1 ppg and winning the yardage battle by 12 per game. Both teams played UCLA with BYU losing by a point on the road while Utah lost 17-9 at home. They also took on Michigan with BYU losing on the road 31-0 while Utah won at home by 7.
While the game surely means more to BYU having dropped the last four before the yearly series was stopped. The coaching change has to have an effect on this team. Mendenhall was there for over a decade and did a very good job in the process. In our opinion the move to Virginia was a lateral one and we are still questioning the reasoning. Utah is more proven playing in the competitive PAC12. While the BYU schedule consisted mostly of Non-Big Five opponents. In looking at the Sagarin Strength of Schedule the Utes are 42 places higher than the Cougars. We will lay the short number with Utah to continue its Holy War domination.PLAY UTAH

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc David

Jets vs Cowboys

NFC SATURDAY SHOWDOWN

Bonus Play Under

The Jets and Cowboys Face off in Dallas in a rare Saturday game. The Jets are in 2nd place and look to keep pace in the playoff race while unbelievably Dallas still has a mathematical possibility as well. Both teams have had their share of problems on offense but they both have also relied on their defense when push came to shove. The Jets rank 10th in points scored with 25 a game but on the road that drops to 20.7. They have been held to 23 points or less in 7 games this year and with receivers Devin Smith out and Jeremy Kerley questionable it might slow them down on the road. Their defense has played well giving up 19.7 points a game and play well against the run. Dallas has been in trouble all year since they lost Tony Romo. Their offense has dropped to 28th in the league and have dropped 9 games so far. Their offense has scored 20 points or less in 10 games. Again their defense is holding them together. They are ranked 9th overall and 4th against the pass. If the Jets have to run keep in mind they have scored only 10 TD's on the ground all year. This game just might be won by the defenses.

Take the Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

BYU vs Utah

Bonus Play Utah

The Utah Utes won their first six games of the season, and finished with a record of 9-3 overall. The BYU Cougars were also 9-3, and the two teams will meet in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday. The Utes are just a slight favorite, and I think they are by far the more complete team.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - Utah has won four straight in this series, covering the spread in each of the last three. The Utes have covered the spread in eight of their last 10 bowl games, and going back even further, they are 39-18-2 ATS in their last 59 non-conference games.

2. Utes Backfield - Devontae Booker missed the last two games with a leg injury, but backup Joe Williams ran for 187 yards and a TD in a win over Colorado in the final game of the regular season.

3. X-Factor - The Utes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the Utah Utes (Free)