Saturday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Arizona vs. New Mexico**
-- The Pac-12 and Mtn. West Conference will collide Saturday in Albuquerque at the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. As of Thursday, most betting shops had Arizona (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 65. The line was 9.5 at most spots on Tuesday, but the number has been slowly sliding down since then. The Lobos were +325 on the money line (risk $100 to win $325) earlier in the week, but that number was down to +300 by Thursday. For first-half wagers, the Wildcats were favored by 4.5 points with a total of 33 points.
-- New Mexico (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) is in the postseason for the first time since 2007 and this will be the bowl debut for Bob Davie in his fourth season at the helm. The Lobos won three of their last four games both SU and ATS, with all three victories coming from the role as double-digit underdogs. They beat Utah State 14-13 as 20.5-point home underdogs before taking over the smurf turf and capturing a 31-24 win at Boise State as 31-point puppies.
-- UNM’s defense gave up 638 total yards of offense to the Broncos, but it forced four turnovers and was able to get stops on three fourth-down attempts by BSU. Jhurell Pressley rushed nine times for 132 yards and one TD for the winners. QB Austin Apodaca completed 8-of-12 throws for 172 yards, while QB Lamar Jordan ran for a 19-yard TD and completed his only pass attempt for 46 yards.
-- After beating BSU, UNM lost a 28-21 decision to Colorado State as a three-point home underdog. However, the Lobos bounced back in the regular-season finale to top Air Force 47-35 as 11-point home ‘dogs. Pressley exploded for 170 rushing yards and three TDs on 17 carries, while Jordan ran 12 times for 68 yards and one TD. Jordan also threw for 135 yards.
-- New Mexico won outright in five of seven home games this year, going 3-4 ATS. However, we should note that UNM went 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games as a home puppy. During Davie’s four-year tenure, the Lobos are 5-9 ATS in 14 games as home ‘dogs.
-- After racing out to a 5-2 start, Rich Rodriguez’s squad lost four of its last five games, including a 52-37 defeat at Arizona State as a six-point underdog in the regular-season finale. After the regular-season finale, Rodriguez’s name was linked to multiple jobs and he definitely interviewed for the South Carolina gig. According to reports and a tweet from Arizona AD Greg Byrne, Rodriguez declined an offer from the Gamecocks.
-- Arizona’s defense has been a disaster, finishing No. 114 in total yards (463.2 YPG) and No. 106 in scoring defense (35.7 PPG). This unit had to play nearly the entire season without junior MLB Scooby Wright, who was a first-team All-American and the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2014. Wright injured his foot in September and played in only two regular-season games. However, he is expected to return and play on Saturday. He finished last season with 14 sacks and 29 tackles for loss.
-- Arizona star RB Nick Wilson won’t be available on Saturday, however. Wilson, who rushed for 1,375 yards and 16 TDs while garnering third-team All Pac-12 honors as a true freshman in 2014, missed three games this year and was given only six carries in each of the last three games he played. Wilson finished 2015 with a team-best 736 rushing yards for eight TDs with a 5.5 yards-per-carry average.
-- Arizona is going bowling for a fourth straight season under Rodriguez, who has led the Wildcats to a 2-1 SU record and a 1-2 ATS mark in three postseason games. In 2012, UA failed to cover in a 49-48 win over Nevada at the New Mexico Bowl. Two years ago, the Wildcats smashed Boston College 42-19 as seven-point favorites at the AdvoCare V100 Bowl. Then last season, they dropped a 38-30 decision to Boise State as three-point ‘chalk’ at the Fiesta Bowl.
-- Arizona’s offense is led by sophomore QB Anu Solomon, who missed the regular-season finale at Arizona State with a head injury. He also missed most of the 56-30 home loss to UCLA after leaving the game early with a concussion. Nevertheless, Solomon completed 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,326 yards with an 18/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He ran for 186 yards and two scores. For his career, Solomon has a stellar 46/13 TD-INT ratio.
-- Arizona posted a 2-0 spread record in a pair of road ‘chalk’ situations this year. During Rodriguez’s tenure, the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS as road favorites.
-- UNM’s last bowl appearance came in this same event in 2007 when it blasted Nevada 23-0 as a 2.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Lobos had lost four straight bowl games prior to that, including the 2006 New Mexico Bowl to San Jose State (20-12) as three-point favorites.
-- The ‘over’ cashed at a 9-3 overall clip for Arizona this year, hitting in each of its last two regular-season games. The Wildcats saw their games average combined scores of 72.4 points per game.
-- The ‘under’ went 7-5 overall for UNM, but the ‘over’ hit at a 4-3 clip in its home outings. The Lobos have seen their games average combined scores of 56.3 PPG. They saw the ‘under’ go 4-1 in their last five contests.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Brigham Young vs. Utah**
-- Utah and BYU ((9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) are set to renew their bitter rivalry Saturday afternoon at the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium. These in-state adversaries didn’t play each other this year or in 2014, but they’ll play five years in a row starting in 2016. As of Thursday, most books had Utah installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 52 points.
-- Utah has won four in a row in this series, taking the cash in each of the last three. The Utes are 5-1 against the Cougars both SU and ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings, including a 20-13 win two seasons ago as seven-point underdogs. The ‘over’ has hit in two of the last three encounters.
-- Utah (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) won its first six games against a tough schedule, one that featured five bowl-bound teams including Oregon and Michigan. The Utes blasted the Ducks 62-20 in Eugene, but their first setback would come at Southern Cal (42-24). They lost twice more in November, falling 37-30 at Arizona and 17-9 vs. UCLA.
-- Utah looked sloppy in the regular-season finale, a 20-14 ho-hum win over Colorado as a 16.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Joe Williams ran 34 times for 187 yards and one TD.
-- Utah has failed to cover the number in three straight games and five of its last six. The Utes have been single-digit favorites four times, going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those instances.
-- Kyle Whittingham’s team will have to face the Cougars without star senior RB Devontae Booker, who is ‘out’ due to a knee injury that kept him out of the last two regular-season games. Booker rushed for 1,261 yards and 11 touchdown while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He also 37 receptions for 318 yards and threw a 25-yard TD pass on his only aerial attempt. As a junior in 2014, Booker earned first-team All Pac-12 honors after rushing for 1,512 yards and 10 TDs. Without its workhorse back, Utah lost at home to the Bruins and posted the aforementioned win over CU.
-- Williams has filled in well for Booker, posting back-to-back 100-plus yard rushing performances. In the loss to the Bruins, the juco transfer who started his career at UConn, rushed for 121 yards and 26 totes. For the season, Williams is averaging 4.9 YPC.
-- BYU won six of nine games against bowl-bound opponents. The Cougars’ scalps include Nebraska, Boise State, UConn, San Jose State, Cincinnati and Utah State The defeats came at UCLA (24-23), at Michigan (31-0) and at Missouri (20-16).
-- BYU got off to an inauspicious start in August when star RB Jamaal Williams was lost to a season-ending suspension. Then in the first half of the opener at Nebraska, Heisman Trophy candidate Taysom Hill suffered a season-ending knee injury. Nevertheless, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad beat the Cornhuskers thanks to a Hail Mary pass from Tanner Mangum on the game’s final play. Mangum rallied BYU past Boise State at home in Week 2, connecting on a long TD pass on a fourth-and-seven play in the final minute.
-- Mangum has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 3,062 yards with a 21/7 TD-INT ratio. Mangum’s favorite target is Mitch Mathews, who hauled in 52 receptions for 729 yards and 11 TDs. Devon Blackmon had 43 catches for 572 yards. Algernon Brown emerged as BYU’s top RB, producing 697 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.7 YPC average.
-- BYU cruised to victory in its regular-season finale at Utah State, blasting the Aggies by a 51-28 count as a three-point road favorite. Mangum connected on 16-of-30 throws for 284 yards and four TDs without an interception. Brown rushed for 68 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Mathews brought down six catches for 158 yards and two TDs.
-- Utah senior QB Travis Wilson has had a mediocre season, throwing only 13 TD passes compared to 10 interceptions. He has completed 62.4 percent of his passes for 2,022 yards.
-- Utah WR Kenneth Marshall was listed as ‘questionable’ earlier this week, but he was upgraded to ‘probable’ after practicing on Thursday. Marshall has 38 receptions for 448 yards and four TDs. Britain Covey has made a team-high 41 catches for 518 yards and four TDs.
-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Utes (6-6), though we’ll note back-to-back ‘unders’ to close the regular season.
-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Cougars, but they have seen the ‘over’ cash in back-to-back contests.
-- BYU hasn’t been an underdog since September when it compiled a 3-1 spread record and collected a pair of outright victories from the ‘dog role.
-- Utah is bowling for a second straight season after thumping Colorado State 45-10 as a 2.5-point fave at last year’s Las Vegas Bowl. The Utes has missed the postseason in 2012 and 2013 when they went 5-7 in consecutive seasons. They have a chance to post their first 10-win campaign since entering the Pac-12 in 2011 and it would be their first 10-win season since 2010, which was the third year in a row of double-digit win tallies (2008-2010).
-- ABC will provide the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**Ohio vs. Appalachian State**
-- Appalachian State (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) is going bowling for the first time in school history in just its second season competing in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mountaineers suffered their lone defeats at Clemson (41-10) and vs. Arkansas State (40-27). They had only two wins against bowl-bound foes, beating Georgia Southern 31-13 as 6.5-point home favorites and Georgia State 37-3 in Atlanta.
-- As of Thursday, most books had Appalachian State listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 55. The Mountaineers will be facing Ohio from out of the MAC at the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. This is the sixth bowl game for the Bobcats in the last seven years. They were left out of the postseason in 2014.
-- Appalachian State has been a single-digit favorite twice, easily cashing tickets in both instances. However, the Mountaineers are currently mired in a 1-4 ATS slump spanning their last five regular-season outings.
-- Appalachian State is led by a defense that ranks No. 13 in the country in scoring, allowing only 18.2 PPG. ASU is 12th in total defense and 18th against the pass.
-- There was no sophomore slump for ASU quarterback Taylor Lamb, who was the Sun Belt’s Freshman Player of the Year in 2014. Lamb completed 60.6 percent of his passes this season for 2,240 yards with a 29/8 TD-INT ratio. He also produced 385 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC.
-- ASU junior RB Marcus Cox went over 1,000 rushing yards for a third consecutive season. He ran for 1,266 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. Cox also had 18 catches for 160 yards and two TDs. Redshirt freshman RB Jalin Moore emerged as an excellent No. 2 RB, rushing for 635 yards and five TDs with a 7.4 YPC average.
-- Ohio (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) has won three in a row both SU and ATS, including a 26-21 win at No. Illinois as an 11-point underdog in the regular-season finale. A.J. Ouellette rushed for 140 yards on 30 carries, while J.D. Sprague ran five times for 30 yards and also threw for 92 yards and one TD without an interception.
-- Ouellette has rushed for a team-best 642 yards and five TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. Meanwhile, Daz’mond Patterson has 497 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 4.9 YPC average. Patterson missed the win at NIU to close the regular season due to a leg injury, but he’s expected to play against the Mountaineers.
-- Ohio has been an underdog four times, posting a 3-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories, including a 21-10 win over Marshall as a three-point home underdog.
-- Ohio starting CB Devin Bass is ‘out’ with a thumb injury, while safety Nathan Carpenter is ‘doubtful’ due to a groin issue. Carpenter had 32 tackles and a pair of interceptions.
-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Ohio with its games averaging combined scores of 52.2 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for ASU, but the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last five games. The Mountaineers have seen their games average combined scores of 55.4 PPG.