Saturday 12/19/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 19

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARIZONA at NEW MEXICO (New Mexico Bowl)
Lobos in first bowl since 2007. Bob Davie 11-7 last 18 vs. line, also 8-4 last 12 as underdog. Cats have covered just 5 of last 14 on board and just 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven away from Tucson. Rich-Rod 3-6 vs. line in his past nine bowls.

New Mexico, based on team trends.


BYU vs. UTAH (Las Vegas Bowl)
Old rivals have not met since 2013. Utah no covers last three or five of last six this season. BYU 10-5 vs. spread last 15 on board, 3-1 as dog this season. Bronco Mendenhall 6-4 vs. line last ten bowls. Utes are 11-1 SU last 12 bowls dating to the Ron McBride era, with Kyle Whittingham 7-1 SU and 6-2 vs. spread in bowls.

Utah, based on Ute bowl trends.


OHIO vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (Camellia Bowl)
Solich recovered with 8-4 spread mark this season, and he has won and covered two of his last three bowls with Bobcats, though he had dropped three previous bowls with Ohio. Solich 3-1 as dog this season after 3-9 mark getting points past two years. MAC schools recovered for 3-2 bowl spread mark last season after 8-19 vs. line in bowls from 2008-13. App cooled a bit down the stretch with 1-4 spread mark last five after covering 10 of previous 13.

Slight to Ohio, based on recent trends.


SAN JOSE STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE (Cure Orlando Bowl)
GSU was flying down the stretch with wins and covers last four and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven in 2015. Panthers also 6-0 vs. spread away from home this season. Spartans were 5-1 as chalk TY but are 4-10 vs. spread last 14 away from home (3-3 in role this season).

Georgia State, based on recent trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at LA TECH (New Orleans Bowl)
Ark State has split SU and vs. line its bowl games the past four seasons. Red Wolves were hot down stretch this season, however, with wins and covers last four, 6-1 vs. line last 8, and 8 SU wins in a row. After LY’s 11-3 spread mark, Skip Holtz cooled to 6-6 this season and just 2-4 vs. spread away from Ruston.

Slight to Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico is in its first bowl since 2007, when they were also in this bowl, on its home field. Lobos lost four of last five bowls, ran for 645 yards in last two games (Colo St/Air Force). Arizona lost four of its last five games despite scoring 30+ points in four of the five; they allowed 225.8 rushing ypg in last four games, had QB injury issues last month. Wildcats are 2-1 in bowls under RichRod, scoring 40.3 ppg- average total was 75.3. Lobos are 5-9 as home underdogs under Davie, 2-1 this season. Faves are 3-2 vs spread (4-1 SU) in this bowl last five years; the average total was 69.

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU-Utah rivalry ended when Utes went to Pac-12, Cougars went independent. Utah won last four meetings (last one in '13), the last three as underdog in intense rivalry- this game sold out quickly in Vegas. Pac-12 team won this game last two years, after Boise won it three years before that- favorites are 3-2 in last five bowls Utah lost best RB Booker (knee); Utes won four of last five bowls; they were underdog in four of the five. Utah waxed Colorado State here 45-10 LY, lost to Boise in '10. BYU lost its last two bowls, losing in OT to Memphis LY in game that ended with a big brawl. Average total in last five Las Vegas Bowls is 56.6.

Camellia Bowl
Appalachian State is in its first bowl in its second season in I-A- ASU won nine of last ten games; they allowed 41-40 points in its losses TY (Clemson/Ark State)- they ran ball for 230+ yards six of last seven games. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 2-2 this year. MAC underdogs are 19-9 vs spread out of conference. Ohio is 2-3 in last five bowls; they were underdog in last four, last of which was in '13. Bobcats won last three games to get here; they ran for 87.8 ypg in four losses, 313.5 in last four games. Last three years, MAC teams are 4-12 SU in bowl games- they were 2-2 LY.

New Orleans Bowl
UL-Lafayette won this bowl last four years for Sun Belt, were dog three times; now up to Arkansas State to carry Sun Belt's torch. In last six years, ASU has had five head coaches- last four years it was in GoDaddy Bowl, going 2-2 SU. Redwolves won last eight games after a 1-3 start- their last eight games went over the total. Over last four years, C-USA teams are 14-5 SU in bowls. La Tech lost 58-24 in season finale to Southern Miss; they're 7-2 last nine games, Bulldogs beat Illinois 35-18 in bowl LY, its first bowl win since 2008. Florida transfer Driskel is Tech's quarterback.

Cure Bowl
San Jose State won its last three bowl games, spread out over 25 years- their last bowl was in 2012. Spartans are 1-6 against teams that are in bowls, losing three of last four overall- they're 4-1 s a favorite this year. Last four years, Mounain West teams are 9-14 SU in bowls. MW non-conference favorites are 1-7 vs spread this season; Sun Belt underdogs are 13-16. Georgia State is bowling in third year of I-A play; they went 1-23 last two years. State won its last four games to get to 6-6- they're 7-1-1 as an underdog. Earlier this year; Panthers were 2.5-point dog to Liberty, a I-AA team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Bowl Season'

College football's bowl season begins Saturday with five games, anchored by a compelling “Holy War” Las Vegas Bowl matchup between the Brigham Young Cougars and the No. 22 Utah Utes. Kick-off from Sam Boyd Stadium is at 3:30 PM ET, with Utah favored by three points as we go to press. That line has held steady since the open back on December 8.

The Cougars (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) will be playing their last game under head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who took the top job at Virginia two weeks ago. They'll be trying to snap a four-game losing streak against Utah (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS); the Utes have covered each of the last three meetings for coach Kyle Whittingham, a BYU alumnus who, legend has it, swore never to lose again to his alma mater.

That could be a tough task this Saturday. Utah is playing without running back Devontae Booker (4.7 yards per carry, 37 catches), who was lost for the year to a torn meniscus in Week 11. The Utes' offense has been sluggish ever since, splitting a pair of games straight up at 0-2 ATS with both games going under the posted total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 15 Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Only three regular-season games remain. Surprisingly, 21 of 32 NFL teams are below .500, which means many mediocre squads remain in the hunt since two divisions are probably going to be won with records of 9-7 or 8-8. Week 15 will add a few key pieces to the puzzle. Here’s an early look:

Saturday, Dec. 19

N.Y. Jets at Dallas: Stuck in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Steelers for the final two playoff spots in the AFC, the Jets have virtually no room for error since those teams have fairly light schedules the rest of the way. The Jets have division rivals New England and Buffalo left after this one, making this visit to AT&T Stadium a must-win. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine touchdowns without an interception during New York’s three-game winning streak and has made plays with his feet as well, but this Cowboys defense will be the best he’s seen since a loss at Houston on Nov. 22. Dallas isn’t mathematically eliminated in the NFC East, but brings up the rear in the division and can’t afford another loss. Matt Cassel has thrown a single TD pass in his last four starts. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 Cowboys games. An unhappy Dez Bryant, set to visit Revis Island here, caught just one pass for nine yards in Sunday’s 28-7 loss at Green Bay and had multiple drops.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 15:

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 42)

Jets’ third-down defense vs. Cowboys’ third-down troubles

The Cowboys welcome Gang Green to Jerry’s World for a special Saturday night showdown in Arlington. Dallas has sputtered on offense all season, despite having one of the most talented offensive lines in football. That line hasn’t lived up to the hype and has struggled to make way on even the shortest plays.

The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL in converting third-and-1 situations and have an overall conversion percentage of just over 35 percent on third downs this season. That number has dropped the past three weeks, with Big D moving the chains on third down less than 25 percent of the time. Dallas was a despicable 1 for 11 on third down in last week’s loss to Green Bay, and went 0 for 2 on fourth-down attempts.

New York enters Week 15 among the best teams in the NFL in ushering opponents off the field. The Jets have allowed foes to convert on third down in just under 34 percent of those plays, trimming that to 25 percent over the past three games – third in the league during that span. New York stumped Tennessee on all but three of their 14 third-down attempts last week and limited the Giants to 4 for 15 on third downs the week before.

Daily fantasy watch: Jets D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Injury Report
By The Sports Xchange

NEW YORK JETS at DALLAS COWBOYS (Saturday night)

NEW YORK JETS
--Out: WR Devin Smith (knee)
--Probable: S Dion Bailey (ankle), TE Kellen Davis (wrist), WR Eric Decker (knee), DE Leger Douzable (ankle), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (left thumb), T Breno Giacomini (hip, ankle), WR Jeremy Kerley (calf), C Nick Mangold (hand), WR Brandon Marshall (ankle), S Ronald Martin (groin), S Rontez Miles (achilles), CB Dee Milliner (ankle), LB Calvin Pace (abdomen, knee), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (wrist), CB Marcus Williams (knee)
DALLAS COWBOYS
--Out: LB Rolando McClain (concussion), QB Tony Romo (left shoulder)
--Doubtful: CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring)
--Probable: WR Dez Bryant (foot), S Jeff Heath (shoulder), DE David Irving (back), DE Demarcus Lawrence (chest), LB Kyle Wilber (shoulder)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jets travel to Dallas

NEW YORK JETS (8-5) at DALLAS COWBOYS (4-9)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New York -3.5, Total: 42

The struggling Cowboys will be hosting a Jets team that is hungry for a chance to play in the postseason on Saturday.

New York looked like it was ready to fade away in the AFC playoff race, but the team has won three straight games. The Jets dominated the Titans in New York in Week 14, winning 30-8 as an eight-point home favorite. They are now 2-0-1 ATS in their past three contests and their last two games have gone Under the total.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, lost 28-7 in Green Bay last week. Dallas has won two of its past three games both SU and ATS. The team has also gone Under the total in its previous two games heading into this contest.

The Jets and Cowboys have met just five times since 1992. Dallas is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in those contests and three of the five have gone Under the total. Favoring the Jets in this one is the fact that the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover in two of their past three games over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are, however, an impressive 33-17 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992.

The Jets were supposed to be relying on their defense this season, but they have actually been explosive on the offensive side of the ball over the past few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing the best football of his life for New York, throwing for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three weeks. He has thrown for 263 yards or more in each of those games and will look to stay hot with a big performance on Saturday. He should be okay as long as he is giving his receivers a chance to make plays.

Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall have been one of the best pass-catching duos in the league this season, as Decker has 66 receptions for 875 yards and nine touchdowns and Marshall has 89 receptions for 1,187 yards and 11 touchdowns.

As long as the Jets can stop the run then they should be victorious in this game. That should not be a problem, as New York is allowing just 78.9 rushing yards per game (1st in NFL).

The Cowboys had high hopes this season, but a series of injuries has left Matt Cassel as the team’s starting quarterback. Cassel has not thrown a touchdown pass since Nov. 26 and he just is not getting the job done for Dallas. His completion percentage was 44.8% against the Packers and if he is not more effective on Saturday then he will likely lose his starting job.

The one thing that can keep the Cowboys in this game is the play of Darren McFadden. Dallas has been relying heavily on the running game and McFadden has answered the call, rushing for 798 yards with three touchdowns on the year. Not much was expected of him before the year, but he has been the least of Dallas’ concerns.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday Night Football - Jets at Cowboys
By Tony Mejia

After stealing a game on a Monday night in Landover to close out Week 13, the Cowboys held out hope that their season-long nightmare might have a happy ending after all. Last week in Green Bay, the Packers basically snuffed out those aspirations with a 28-7 rout.

While still not mathematically eliminated, Dallas has to win out and hope everyone else in the NFC East loses in the right combination to sneak into the playoffs as a 7-9 team. The Cowboys have won once without injured QB Tony Romo despite the fact he’s played only four games, leaving half of them with collarbone injuries. Brandon Weeden went 0-3 and is now in Houston. Matt Cassel is 1-5 in starts and has shown little improvement, throwing for 114 yards against the Packers and giving his team very little chance to be successful.

Dez Bryant was targeted seven times in Green Bay last Sunday and made a single nine-yard reception while recording multiple drops. Although he claims to be healthy after breaking his foot in Week 1, he’s also had knee issues and has a single 100-yard receiving game out of the eight he’s participated in. Bryant has got six catches for 97 yards over the last three games and has only scored a pair of touchdowns all season. We’ll see if the challenge of going one-on-one with Darrelle Revis sparks him to a vintage effort. The Cowboys need him to help Cassel be successful against a complicated opponent.

The Jets arrive in Dallas on a season-long three-game winning streak and have been installed as 3.5-point favorites on Saturday night. They’ll be playing away from East Rutherford for the first time since a Nov. 22 loss at Houston, having beaten the Dolphins and Titans in addition to a “road” game against the Giants. They’ve covered in all three wins, outscoring their vanquished foes by a combined margin of 91-48. Their success has them in the playoff hunt, threatening to end a postseason drought that dates back to 2010. Their 8-5 record is even with Pittsburgh and Kansas City, in the mix for the final two AFC Wild Card spots.

After Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and stints kicking around the tires on Michael Vick and Matt Simms, New York has finally found its quarterback. Despite never reaching the playoffs himself in five previous stops, Ryan Fitzpatrick is enjoying a Pro Bowl-caliber season, currently up to a career-best 25 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He’s been exceptional during this current Jets run, tossing for 930 yards and nine TDs without an interception.

Picks have been a problem for Fitzpatrick in the past – he threw 23 in one season in 2011 -- but he’s consistently avoided mistakes while establishing great chemistry with top targets Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, who have already combined for 20 touchdowns and over 2,000 receiving yards. It’s definitely not a good week for the Cowboys to be down corner Morris Claiborne, who despite his struggles is one of the team’s most dynamic athletes. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has done a nice job keeping the Cowboys in games despite their offensive woes, but he’ll likely be down a pair of key defenders. Claiborne is doubtful with a hamstring injury. LB Rolando McClain (concussion) has already been ruled out. DE DeMarcus Lawrence, Dallas’ sack leader with six, is probable after missing practice time with a chest injury and forms a dangerous duo up front with Greg Hardy.

The Jets will aim to keep the Cowboys pass rush from being overly aggressive with a heavy helping of the Chris Ivory-led run game and a steady diet of screens to Bilal Powell. Powell has a touchdown catch in each of the last two games and 20 receptions for 211 yards over the last four games. Ivory ranks fifth in the NFL with 914 rushing yards after posting a 101-yard day in Sunday’s 30-8 blowout of Tennessee. Dallas has the 18th-ranked defense against the run. New York ranks No. 1, surrendering just 78.9 yards per game. It will be interesting to see how they fare against formidable Cowboys offensive line that has helped spring Darren McFadden to four 100-yard rushing games since he became the starter on Oct. 25, eight games ago. He had runs of 50 and 45 yards against Green Bay that undoubtedly got the attention of the Jets defense in this week’s film study.

Total-wise, this is a weird game to get a grasp on since there are feared playmakers on both sides of the ball set to do battle. New York’s defensive front against the Dallas o-line. Bryant vs. Revis. Ivory vs. terrific Cowboys outside linebacker Sean Lee.

The number opened as high as 43 at a few offshore betting shops and has dropped to 41.5 as of Saturday morning. VegasInsider.com NFL totals expert Chris David believes the opener was high and agrees with the early move.

“The Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 8-5 this season and that includes a 4-1 run in their last five games. With Cassel at quarterback, Dallas is a one-dimensional team and they’re averaging 15 PPG in his seven starts this season. Defensively, the Cowboys are ranked ninth in total defense (334 YPG) and they are the third best team in time of possession. Two of the most important factors for winning ‘under’ tickets are a solid defense and a ball control offense, which Dallas certainly has.” explained David.

“The Jets have a little more pop on offense than the Cowboys but they’re definitely not a juggernaut and their offensive numbers are very inconsistent. At home, New York is averaging 27.9 PPG while nearly a touchdown less on the road (21.7 PPG). The Jets have slightly leaned to the ‘over’ (7-6) this season and with this number being so low, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another game go the high side knowing that the Jets have seen 41 or more combined points scored in 10 of their 13 games this season.”

The Jets have played in two primetime games this season and both went ‘under’ the total while Dallas is 3-1 to the ‘under’ in its four contests played under the lights in 2015.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday Night Football betting preview: Jets at Cowboys

New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5, 41.5)

The New York Jets look for their fourth straight win and try to keep pace in the playoff race when they visit the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night. The Jets currently hold the final wild-card berth but don't control their own destiny as they need to continue to pile up the victories and have either Pittsburgh or Kansas City lose another game to have a shot at the postseason.

Led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets' offense is firing on all cylinders. Fitzpatrick enters Saturday's game with 24 touchdown passes, just five shy of Vinny Testaverde's franchise record. His top targets, Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, are also nearing milestones - Marshall is six receptions away from breaking Al Toon's team single-season mark of 93 and Decker needs 125 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Dallas' offense is quite the opposite, falling completely apart since Tony Romo fractured his collarbone. Dez Bryant caught just one pass in the Cowboys' 28-7 loss at Green Bay last week and the Cowboys have plummeted to 28th in the league in total offense.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Cowboys as 3-point home dogs but that has moved to +3.5. The total opened at 42 but is down to 41.5.

WEATHER FORECAST: N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Jets (-2.5) - Cowboys (+4) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -3.5

INJURY REPORT:

Jets - WR Jeremy Kerley (Questionable, calf), DB Dion Bailey (Questionable, ankle), DB Marcus Williams (Questionable, knee), RB Zac Stacy (Out for season, ankle), WR Devin Smith (I-R, knee), DE Mike Catapano (I-R, foot), G Willie Colon (I-R, knee), K Nick Folk (I-R, quad), S Antonio Allen (I-R, Achilles), TE Jace Amaro (I-R, shoulder), TE Zach Sudfeld (I-R, knee).

Cowboys - DE Demarcus Lawrence (Questionable, chest), CB Morris Claiborne (Questionable, hamstring), OL Chaz Green (Questionable, hip), LB Mark Nzeocha (Questionable, knee), LB Rolando McClain (Questionable, concussion), QB Tony Romo (Out for season, collarbone), Ryan Russell (I-R, abdominal), RB Lance Dunbar (I-R, knee), DT Terrell McClain (I-R, toe), CB Orlando Scandrick (I-R, knee).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "With a three TD effort against the Titans, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick set his career high for TD passes and is now ranked in the Top 10 in QB rating for the first time in his career. Dallas enters Saturday?s home game against the Jets riding a 12-26 ATS run at home dating back to the start of the 2011 campaign; just 1-5 SU and ATS at Jerry?s World this year." Teddy Covers.

ABOUT THE JETS (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): New York has racked up 10 wins or more 10 times in its history and all 10 times it has reached the playoffs. This season, however, even 11 wins might not be enough for the Jets, who rank 10th in the NFL in points scored (25.0) and points allowed (19.7). New York lost receiver Devin Smith to a torn ACL last week and Jeremy Kerley is questionable with a calf injury, but its depth has been outstanding. Chris Ivory has rushed for 914 yards and his backup, Bilal Powell, has scored touchdowns in each of the past two weeks while amassing 190 yards from scrimmage.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Bryant admitted that his surgically repaired foot was hurting after last week's game but Dallas has no plans of shutting him down for the season. Perhaps that's because the Cowboys, who are 1-5 at home, are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth, but even owner Jerry Jones admitted those chances are "very, very slim." Darren McFadden was the lone bright spot last week, gaining 111 yards on nine carries to leave him 202 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season that would net him a $300,000 bonus.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
* Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last five games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets last five games in December.

CONSENSUS: Seventy percent are backing the Jets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Tech Trends - Week 15
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 19

N.Y. JETS at DALLAS (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys 3-8 vs. line last 11 this season, also 1-5 vs. spread in 2015 at Arlington. Jets have covered last three TY and 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as visitor.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Football Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

No league's champion seems to hinge more on injuries than in the NFL. And the Cincinnati Bengals may have learned that the hard way on Sunday when quarterback Andy Dalton, who is having his best season, broke his right (throwing) thumb while making a tackle of a Pittsburgh Steeler after throwing an interception. All the Bengals are saying now is that Dalton won't play this Sunday at San Francisco, doesn't need surgery (so that's a good break) and is week-to-week.

It seems likely that Dalton misses the rest of the regular season at a minimum, and thus it's hard to imagine the Bengals getting a top-two seed in the AFC with backup A.J. McCarron starting the final three games. Cincinnati controlled its destiny for the AFC's stop seed entering Week 14, but its blowout loss to Pittsburgh and New England's win in Houston knocked the Bengals down to No. 2. I suppose Cincy could win in San Francisco (Bengals opened at -4) with McCarron, but I certainly don't see him leading a victory in Denver in Week 16 -- that's probably for the conference's No. 2 seed.

The Bengals are now +1000 to win the AFC title. Interestingly, the Steelers are +300 second-favorites to New England (+140) even though Pittsburgh would miss the playoffs as of right now.

Here are some Week 15 games and opening lines that caught my eye. As usual, I won't touch on the Thursday game, my Sunday featured game (likely Texans-Colts) or the Monday nighter.

Jets at Cowboys (+3, 42): This game is Saturday night. Dallas was predictably routed in Green Bay on Sunday to guarantee its first losing season since 2010. Matt Cassel continued to be horrible at quarterback. He was just 13-for-29 for 114 yards vs. the Packers, the third time in six starts he was held under 200 yards passing. His longest completion went for 19 yards, and that came on the final drive of the game. The Cowboys have had 68 drives with Cassel at quarterback and have scored eight touchdowns. Coach Jason Garrett says he's sticking with Cassel over backup Kellen Moore. The Jets beat the Titans 30-8 on Sunday for their third straight win. It's New York's longest winning streak since 2011. They haven't had a four-game streak since 2010, when they had one four-game streak and also a five-game streak. That was the last time the Jets made the playoffs. Key trend: Dallas is 5-5 against the spread in its past 10 as a home dog. The pick: Love the "under." Take Jets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys Predictions
by Alan Matthews

I had planned to preview Houston at Indianapolis as my Sunday featured game this week, but that line still isn't posted as of this writing because of the uncertain status of Colts backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. He's dealing with rib and arm injuries, but Coach Chuck Pagano expects him to go Sunday in place of Andrew Luck yet again as it's a vital game for the AFC South lead. And Hasselbeck will be countered by Texans backup T.J. Yates with Brian Hoyer out with a concussion. So that game isn't all that exciting to me now with those two under center, although the winner is in the driver's seat for the division crown.

So instead, I will look at Saturday's game between the Jets and Cowboys in Dallas. Yes, Saturday's game. Always in the final few weeks of the season -- but not Week 17 -- the NFL puts on a Saturday game with the college football regular season finished. So this should draw big ratings and ditto in betting action even though the Cowboys stink. They are still America's Team, and the Jets, well, are in the nation's No. 1 media market.

As things stand, the Jets (8-5) are the final AFC wild-card team, but that's far from set in stone even if they win out (more on that below). Fellow 8-5 team Kansas City is at No. 5 and Pittsburgh, with the same record, at No. 7. Someone will be left out, and I'd fear playing the Chiefs or Steelers right now in the postseason more than I would New York.

Dallas (4-9) currently would pick No. 6 in the 2016 draft and really should start shutting guys down and not ruin draft position with a win or two. OK, technically the Cowboys aren't out of the race in the sad NFC East yet, so maybe they try for one more week.

Jets at Cowboys Betting Story Lines

Believe it or not, if the Jets do win out but Kansas City and Pittsburgh also do, then New York will be watching the postseason at 11-5. In that scenario, the Jets would lose out to the Chiefs based on conference record and they'd lose out to the Steelers based on record against common opponents (Patriots, Raiders, Browns and Colts). And I'm not sure New York even wins out. Next week it hosts New England and then closes at Buffalo. The Chiefs should do so as they are at Baltimore this week and then home to Cleveland and Oakland. Pittsburgh I think will as well unless Ben Roethlisberger goes down again. The Steelers host Denver this week -- Brock Osweiler is regressing -- and then go to Baltimore and Cleveland. Just two 11-5 teams have ever missed the playoffs: the Broncos in 1985 and the Patriots in 2008 (the year Tom Brady was lost to injury in Week 1). Sportsbooks have the Jets at +190 to make the playoffs and -240 to miss. For Kansas City it's -800/+500. And for Pittsburgh -325/+250. So clearly oddsmakers agree with me in that they think the Chiefs and Steelers won't lose again. There is an outside chance that the Jets could finish 11-5 and still make it, but they would need the Broncos and/or Bengals to fall into the wild-card pool.

Got all that?

New York enters this one on a three-game winning streak (it hasn't won six straight since 1998). After a bit of a midseason slump, the defense has allowed only 48 combined points in the streak. And Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very good, throwing for at least 263 yards in each game with nine combined touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Marshall is working on a three-game streak with at least 125 yards and one touchdown -- he has eight 100-yard games this season. Marshall and Eric Decker have both recorded a touchdown catch in seven games overall, tied for the most by teammates in a season in NFL history (Cris Carter and Randy Moss with 1998 Vikings).

I don't have much to say about the Cowboys. They are sticking with Matt Cassel under center instead of getting a look at Kellen Moore, although I think Cassel heads to the bench one the Cowboys are officially eliminated. Moore is in his fourth season, the previous three with Detroit, but has never taken a regular-season snap. Cassel figures to struggle this week because no team blitzes as often as the Jets. And Cassel has completed just 22 of 50 passes for 266 yards with a touchdown and an interception this season vs. the blitz. He has been sacked seven times in those situations and has a passer rating of 59.3. There also has been talk of shutting down star receiver Dez Bryant for the year, but Cowboys owner/GM has said no to that -- thus far. Been a lousy year for Bryant with the team's QB issues and his injuries/play. In eight games, he has caught 27 passes for 351 yards and two touchdowns. I'm sure Darrelle Revis will be glued to Bryant on Saturday.

The Jets are only 3-7 all-time vs. the Cowboys but did win the last meeting at home, on Sept. 11, 2011, 27-24. That was obviously an emotional day in the New York area on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The Jets rallied from a 24-10 fourth-quarter hole.

Jets at Cowboys Betting Odds and Trends

New York is a 3-point favorite (-120) with a total of 42. On the moneyline, the Jets are -173 and Cowboys +153. On the alternate lines, the Jets are -4 (+113), -3.5 (+105), -2.5 (-145), -2 (-150) and -1.5 (-155). New York is 7-5-1 against the spread (3-2-1 on the road) and 7-6 "over/under" (3-3 on road). Dallas is 4-9 ATS (1-5 at home) and 5-8 O/U (4-2 at home).

The Jets have covered nine of their past 11 in December. They are 4-1 ATS in their past five Saturday games. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its past seven December games. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-2 in the Jets' past seven after a win. The under is 4-1 in Dallas' past five after a loss.

NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Jets at Cowboys Betting Predictions

The Jets have the NFL's best run defense, allowing just 78.9 yards per game. So that puts the game on Cassel's shoulders, and that's not a good thing. Take New York but only give 2.5. Go under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 15

Jets (8-5) @ Cowboys (4-9)-- Jets won last three games, scoring 30.3 ppg; they're in 3-way battle for two Wild Card slots. Dallas is 1-8 in games started by backups; in their last three games they were outscored 40-6 in first half, with no TDs. Cowboys are 1-5 at home, with only win by point over Giants in Week 1. Jets are +15 in turnovers in their eight wins, -13 in five losses; Cowboys has eight takeaways all season (-15). Gang Green lost its last three true road games by 7-14-7 points- their only true road victory was 20-7 at Indy in Week 2. Dallas is 7-3 in series, with all seven wins by 10+ points; Jets lost two of three visits here, with last visit in '07. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 4-5 at home; AFC East road favorites are 4-6. Under is 4-1 in last five games for both teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Balmoral Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 7:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$3700 - FILLIES & MARES, NON-WINNERS OF 2 RACES OR $4,000 LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 FLIGHT ON TIME 7/2


# 5 GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS 3/1


# 2 FIGHTING MAJORETTE 5/1


All signs point to FLIGHT ON TIME for the selection. Certainly should be given a look based on the really good speed figure achieved in the last contest. GIRLS GIRLS GIRLS - Loved this mare's last race. Ran a solid 68 speed rating. Major contender. Surely think these two have a special working relationship. Schulze sending the horse out means a good chance to get the victory. FIGHTING MAJORETTE - This entrant looks dangerous. Look at the 67 avg TrackMaster Speed Rating. With a 68 avg class statistic, this fine animal has one of the most favorable class edges in the group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 7:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 93 - Purse:$10500 - HORSES & GELDINGS OPEN HCP. POST POSITION 6 ASSIGNED DAYTON RACEWAY T.SMITH LISTED 1-2-3


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ASTREO'S LOVE 8/1


# 1 JAMMIN JOSHUA 3/1


# 3 FREDDYSCOOTER 10/1


Hey, listen up! ASTREO'S LOVE is the smart play if you like to win looking ever better at 8/1 on the morning line. This gelding has been going to post against some of the most competitive company in this bunch of late. When starting from the 5 hole, a much better than average win percentage has resulted. JAMMIN JOSHUA - Feel the need for speed, this fine animal has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 93. He has very good class ratings, averaging 93. Could be considered for a bet in this race. FREDDYSCOOTER - This interesting entrant will be greatly helped with Tetrick taking the reins. 20 percent winners over the last 30 days. One of the strongest win statistics with this driver/handler make this gelding dangerous.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 74

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SYNCHROTRON 2/1


# 3 MOMMA TRIED 8/5


# 4 ONE LAST WIN 12/1


I think SYNCHROTRON is a very good choice. Has been running well lately and will most likely be up on the lead early on. Could beat this field given the 71 speed rating posted in his last outing. This gelding looks very good in this race since Ruiz has a very solid win percent with horses going this distance. MOMMA TRIED - Boasts strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Ran a strong last race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29600 Class Rating: 68

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 PERTY DIRTY DUDE 5/1


# 1 MYSHIPCOMESIN 7/2


# 6 HIGHLY CONFIDENT 3/1


I like PERTY DIRTY DUDE here. Displays the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 62 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the best in this group of animals. Eikleberry has an excellent ROI over the past month (+20) which should help risk takers with this choice. Had one of the best speed figs of this group in his last affair. MYSHIPCOMESIN - Should definitely be carefully examined in this contest if only for the very good speed fig posted in the last contest. Is worth careful consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figures (59 average) at today's distance and surface lately. HIGHLY CONFIDENT - Formidable selection to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Earning some nice money in dirt sprint contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #12 - Post: 6:48pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 TAFT (ML=8/1)
#5 REAL GONE CAT (ML=8/1)
#3 LIONS AND ROBYN (ML=20/1)


TAFT - This fine animal should be motoring down the lane. REAL GONE CAT - I think Courville is making a good move here. This gelding can only profit from the shorter distance. Clark is up for another contest today after racing atop this equine for the first ride on Dec 5th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Recent speed figs show solid pattern of improvement. LIONS AND ROBYN - This front running sort should benefit from this shorter trip.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 WOW WOW WOOSTER (ML=3/1), #11 CHOP CHOP TYLER (ML=4/1), #10 BULLSEYE HAYES (ML=9/2),

WOW WOW WOOSTER - November 20th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. Usually I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance events in order to bet on him. CHOP CHOP TYLER - Didn't look so great last time out. Probably won't make an impact today. Unlikely that the speed rating he earned on December 6th will hold up in this affair. BULLSEYE HAYES - Difficult to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to notch a better speed figure than last race out to compete in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #4 TAFT on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:01pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 THE GREAT WHITEWAY (ML=5/2)


THE GREAT WHITEWAY - You always have to be on the patrol for profit making jock/trainer combinations; we have it right here. Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the class ability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CLEARLYAGOODSTART (ML=4/1), #10 LITTLE FAT ALBERT (ML=5/1), #6 COSMIC CRASH (ML=6/1),

CLEARLYAGOODSTART - Mediocre rating last time around the track at Parx Racing at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's event. LITTLE FAT ALBERT - No good fortune for this steed in a short distance event over the last couple months tells me that this gelding is in a thorny spot COSMIC CRASH - Notched a common speed rating in the last race in a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race on Nov 29th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that rating.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THE GREAT WHITEWAY - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top racer in earnings per start. This race horse looks good to me so I'm making a prime investment on him.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #2 THE GREAT WHITEWAY to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with 3

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:50 PM EASTERN POST


The Queens County Stakes

9.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#3 KID CRUZ
#4 TOMMY MACHO
#2 MY LUTE
#7 PERFECT TITLE

Well folks ... this race, as is the case with several other stakes listed by the NYRA, is named for a district in the area, with Queens County being the political subdivision in which Aqueduct Racetrack and part of Belmont Park is located. Queens County was named in honor of Catherine of Braganza, the wife of King Charles II of England. Queens is the largest of the five boroughs of New York City by area. In addition to being the site of the 1964 World's Fair, it is currently the site of John F. Kennedy International Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Citi Field (home of the New York Mets), Queens College, and the main campus of St. John's University. Here in the 110th running of this stakes event, #3 KID CRUZ takes a class drop (-2), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last four outings, and goes to the post for the "Saturday Feature" with the skills of to the Jockey / Trainer tandem of Jose Ortiz and Linda Rice in his corner ... they've hit the board with an impressive 61% of nearly 125 entries saddled as a team to date. #4 TOMMY MACHO, the morning line favorite, has hit the board in four of his last five outings overall, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" i;n his 5th race back.