Saturday 12/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Trail Blazers (13-15) at Warriors (23-4)

Date: December 17, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

OAKLAND, Calif. -- Damian Lillard makes the first of his two annual trips to his hometown on Saturday night when the Portland Trail Blazers visit the Golden State Warriors.

The goal: Set the stage for closing down Oracle Arena for the summer with a return visit in the playoffs.

The Trail Blazers had a chance to do just that last May but lost three straight in Oakland in a 4-1 defeat in the Western Conference semifinals.

Those were three of seven straight losses that Portland has endured in Oakland since Nov. 23, 2013.

And those games -- especially the four in the regular season -- haven't been close.

The Warriors put a 128-112 and 136-111 thumping on the Trail Blazers in their two regular-season visits last season. Overall, Golden State has averaged a 16.8-point margin of victory in its four-game regular-season home run over Portland.

If any player is capable of turning that around, it's Lillard. After all, he had 20 points and nine assists as a rookie in the 2013 win, and he crushed the Warriors with 51 points in a 137-105 home win over Golden State last January.

Unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, it seems recent wins over the two-time Western Conference champs have only inspired them to greater things. The Warriors responded to the 32-point shellacking last season with the subsequent 16- and 25-point home wins, followed by the 4-1 playoff triumph.

Lillard often hasn't been at his best in front of family and old friends in Oakland. He did have a 38-point outing in his most recent regular-season visit last April, but that followed a 5-of-19, 17-point dud a month earlier when he missed nine of his 10 3-point attempts.

The point guard enters Saturday's visit on a bit of a roll. He'd already had three 30-point games this month before exploding for 40, two off his season high, in Thursday's loss at Denver.

Portland was coming off a 114-95 thrashing of the Oklahoma Thunder two nights earlier.

"We weren't the same team that we have been the last few games," Lillard told reporters after the Denver loss.

Warriors coach Steve Kerr, meanwhile, wasn't happy with his team's play Thursday night, either. But his team was good enough to win anyway, 103-90 at home over the New York Knicks.

The game featured 36 consecutive Warriors baskets on which they were credited with assists. They finished with 41 assists on 45 hoops, the first team this season with an assist on more than 90 percent of its shots.

"That was the lone bright spot of the game," Kerr said to reporters afterward. "They really look for each other. That's a theme almost every night. That's such a great quality to have as a team."

The Warriors had 45 assists on 50 baskets in their 127-104 win at Portland last month.

Lillard was the game's top scorer with 31 points but missed 11 of his 19 shots from the field and registered a minus-29 plus/minus in his 32 minutes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Saturday, Dec. 17, 2016, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

The New Orleans Pelicans don't play Saturday night, but they might become a pretty decent bet going forward. The Pels have been very competitive whenever starting point guard Jrue Holiday has been in the lineup, which hasn't been all that often yet due to some personal leave and minor injuries. And on Thursday, the team welcomed back its third-best player in swingman Tyreke Evans. It was his first game in nine months. I wouldn't expect too much from him for a couple of weeks as Evans underwent three right knee surgeries in the span of nine months. He will clearly be on a minutes limit for a while and won't play on back-to-back nights. Evans played 11 minutes and had seven points in a win over Indiana. But a fully healthy threesome of Anthony Davis, Holiday and Evans can be a solid team. Even better if rookie Buddy Hield starts to live up to expectations, and he played great vs. the Pacers. The Pels probably started the season too slowly to make the playoffs, but I can see them playing a bit better than .500 ball the rest of the year to potentially save Coach Alvin Gentry's job. Again, that's if healthy. And this being New Orleans, it has lost guard Tim Frazier for 7-10 days after he suffered a bone bruise on his right wrist Tuesday.

Suns at Thunder (TBA)

Looking forward to this matchup as Eric Bledsoe is fine defender and he should be on Russell Westbrook most of the night. You know, assuming both play because this is the NBA. Phoenix lost 107-92 at home to San Antonio on Thursday. The Suns actually led briefly in the fourth. Center Alex Len missed a second straight game with a hip bruise. Oklahoma City dropped a second straight Wednesday, 109-89 in Utah. Russell Westbrook had 27 points, six rebounds and five assists but was just 7-for-25 shooting. Guard Victor Oladipo missed a second in a row with a wrist sprain. The Thunder have won five straight vs. Phoenix, including the first of four meetings this season. It was 113-110 in OT on Oct. 28 with Westbrook scoring 51 points on a Suns opponent record 44 field goal attempts. He also had 13 rebounds and 10 assists. Hey, 44 shots to make 51 points is actually pretty good defense.

Key trends: The underdog is 8-3 against the spread in the past 11 meetings. The "over/under" is 9-2 in OKC's past 11 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Wait on Oladipo and to a lesser extent Len.

Pacers at Pistons (-6.5, 202)

Detroit was in Washington on Friday. Indiana is 0-2 on its three-game trip after a 102-95 defeat in New Orleans on Thursday. Myles Turner had 26 points and Jeff Teague 21 and 10 assists, but the Pacers had a four-minute scoring drought late in the fourth quarter. Guards Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey both sat again and they won't play here. Indiana won three of four meetings last year vs. the Pistons and has taken six of the past eight in Detroit.

Key trends: The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 5-1 in the previous six in Detroit.

Early lean: Pistons and under.

Hornets at Hawks (TBA)

Atlanta was in Toronto on Friday and Charlotte in Boston. The Hornets were without star point guard Kemba Walker in Beantown because of a personal situation, but he's expected to be back for this game. Charlotte has dropped its past four in Atlanta. But the Hornets won the first meeting this season, 100-96 on Nov. 18. The Hawks led 85-75 with 9:49 left in the fourth quarter, but the Hornets would outscore Atlanta 23-11 from that point, with Walker scoring 10 points. Nic Batum had 24 points and 10 rebounds for Charlotte.

Key trends: The Hornets are 1-4 ATS in their past five in Atlanta. The under is 6-0 in the past six meetings.

Early lean: Oddsmakers clearly want 100 percent assurance Walker will be back.

Lakers at Cavaliers (-15.5, 217.5)

Los Angeles was in Philadelphia on Friday. Cleveland's five-game winning streak predictably ended in Memphis on Wednesday when Cavs coach Tyronn Lue sat LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. They'll all be in there Saturday. Cleveland was 2-0 vs. Los Angeles last year in the final LeBron vs. Kobe matchups, with the Cavs scoring 120 points in each.

Key trends: The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their past five in the second of a back-to-back. The over is 6-0 in the Cavs' past six vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Cavs and over.

Rockets at Timberwolves (+5.5, 222)

Houston hosted New Orleans on Friday looking to extend its winning streak to nine. Minnesota ended a four-game skid and rallied from an early 21-point hole in Chicago on Tuesday to win 99-94 in what must have been sweet for Tom Thibodeau, the ex-Bulls coach. Zach LaVine had 24 points and Andrew Wiggins 23. A big win like that can really spur a team for a while. First meeting of the season between the teams. Houston has won seven straight in the series and the past three in Minneapolis.

Key trends: The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The over is 9-0 in the previous nine.

Early lean: Wolves and over.

Knicks at Nuggets (TBA)

Carmelo Anthony probably faces his former team -- Denver did win that trade in the long run even though it gave up the best player. Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari are still with the Nuggets and they also got some draft picks out of that. I say probably because will Melo play? He missed Thursday's 103-90 loss at Golden State with a sore right shoulder, which somewhat came out of nowhere. Derrick Rose also sat with a back problem, which was expected. Rose, at least, says he's hopeful of playing here. Denver beat visiting Portland 132-120 on Thursday. Gallinari had 27 points and Gary Harris 18 in his first game since Nov. 12 due to a foot injury. Denver swept New York last year and has won the past eight meetings at home.

Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-0 in the previous six.

Early lean: Wait on Melo & Rose, although I like Nuggets regardless.

Trail Blazers at Warriors (-13.5, 232)

Portland has dropped five of six following a 132-120 defeat in Denver on Thursday. Damian Lillard had 40 points and 10 assists -- he's from Oakland so expect big numbers here too. Forward Al-Farouq Aminu missed his second straight game with a back injury. Golden State won its third straight, 103-90 over the visiting Knicks on Thursday. Amazingly, the Warriors had 36 assists on their first 36 baskets. Just beautiful basketball. Golden State had its third game this season with 40 or more assists, the first team to do that since the Chicago Bulls in 1996-97. Center Zaza Pachulia missed a fourth straight game with a wrist injury and David West hurt his hip in the fourth and left. Portland is 3-17 in its past 20 games against the Warriors at Oracle Arena and has lost the past five. These teams met in the Pacific Northwest on Nov. 1 and Golden State rolled 127-104.

Key trends: The favorite is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The over is 5-1 in the previous six in Golden State.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Saturday’s games

Phoenix lost five of last seven games but is 7-3 vs spread in last ten road games. Over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Oklahoma City lost three of its last four games; they’re 8-4 as home favorites. Last six Thunder games stayed under total. Thunder won its last five games with Phoenix (3-2 vs spread); Suns lost last five visits here, but covered three of last four. Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Indiana lost last three road games by 8-6-7 points; Pacers are 2-5 as road underdogs. Last three Indiana games stayed under total. Detroit is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re 7-3 as home favorites. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Pacers won five of last six games with Detroit; Indiana won three of its last five visits to Motor City (3-2 vs spread). Over is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Charlotte lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-2-1 as road underdogs. Under is 5-1 in Hornets’ last six games. Atlanta won three of last four games; they’re 0-4-1 in last five games as a home favorite. Hawks’ last three games went over the total. Home side won eight of last nine Charlotte-Atlanta games; Hornets lost last four visits here (1-3 vs spread). Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Lakers snapped their 8-game skid last night; they’re 2-6 in last eight games as a road underdog. LA’s last three games stayed under the total. Cavaliers won/covered five of last six games; they are 6-1 in last seven games as a home favorite. Three of last four Cleveland games stayed under. Lakers lost last four games with Cleveland (1-3 vs spread); Lakers lost four of last five visits to Lake Erie (2-3 vs spread). Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Rockets were 24-61 on arc last nite, most 3’s ever tried in one NBA game; Houston won its last nine games (7-2 vs spread)- they’re 5-2 as a road favorite. Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games. Minnesota lost four of last five games; they’re 1-6 in last seven games as a home underdog. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. Rockets won their last seven games with Minnesota (3-4 vs spread); Houston won its last three visits here, by 12-2-24 points. Last nine series games went over total.

New York covered six of last seven road games; they’re 13-4 vs spread in last 17 games overall. Over is 6-4-1 in New York’s last 11 road games. Denver lost three of last four home games; they are 4-7 SU at home. Over is 9-1-1 in Nuggets’ last 11 games overall. Knicks lost five of last seven games wth Denver; New York lost its last four visits here (1-3 vs spread). Last six series games stayed under total.

Portland lost five of its last six games; they’re 3-8 as a road underdog. Over is 9-3 in Blazers’ last 12 games. Warriors won seven of last eight games but are 0-5 vs spread in last five; they are 5-7 as home favorites. Under is 5-1 in their last six games. Golden State won seven of last eight games with Portland (6-2 vs spread); Trailblazers lost last five visits to Oakland (1-4 vs spread). Nine of last ten series games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'College Hoops'

The eyes of most college basketball fans as well as those with a penchant for sports gaming will be on Saturday's clash between 6th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (10-1, 5-4-1 ATS) and 7th-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (9-1, 7-3 ATS) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Roy Williams' troops shooting 48.4% from the field, 32.4% from long range are netting 88.0 points/game while allowing opponents 66.4 per/contest on 38.8% shooting, 30.6% from outside. The Tar Heels without the services of Joel Berry (14.8) the past two games didn't look particularly sharp in defeating Davidson 83-74 as -16.0 point favorites and most recetly Tennessee 73-71 laying -19.0 points.

John Calipari's Wildcats no slouches at getting the ball through the hoop score 94.4 point/game on 48.5% from the field, 32.4% from long range. Wildcats just as efficient as Heels in keeping the ball out of their own basket surrender 68.8 per contest on 38.4% from the field, 26.8% from beyond the arc. The Wildcats shaking off their lone blemish against UCLA have since routed Valparaiso 87-63 as 20.0 point home chalk and dismantled Hofstra 96-73 in a nuetral site game but in that one failed against the betting line as -26.0 point favorite.

Kentucky pulled off a rare 84-70 victory over North Carolina last season cashing as 12.0 favorites but remain just 3-7 straight-up the past ten early season meetings vs Tar Heels with a money-guzzling 1-9 record against the betting line. Although, Wildcats have not been the best bets away from Rupp Arena (6-11 ATS) they're worth a second look catching Tar Heels without Berry's floor leadership, scoring ability for a third straight game and just 5-10 ATS away from Chapel Hill.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Saturday’s best 13 games

Georgetown beat Syracuse 78-72 at home LY; they led by 21 early in second half. Hoyas won three of last four series games, winning two of last three visits to Carrier Dome. Georgetown won last four games, all vs stiffs; they’re 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 1-16-27 points and win over Oregon. Syracuse is 6-0 at home, 0-3 elsewhere, but Monmouth is only top 100 team they’ve played at home. Georgetown is in bottom 30 of country in defensive rebounding. Big East underdogs are 9-7 against the spread away from home.

Oklahoma lost two of last three games with four new starters this year; Sooners made 11-26 on arc, won 84-78 at Memphis LY, outscoring Tigers 13-4 over last 3:14 of game. Oklahoma is 1-3 vs top 100 teams with losses by 6-20-3 points and win over Clemson. Memphis is also 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with win over Iowa- they lost at home to Monmouth Tuesday. Tigers are making just 30.1% of their 3-pointers, 61.7% on foul line- they start three sophomores. Big X home favorites are 20-13 vs spread; AAC road underdogs are 7-12.

Wichita State is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Louisville/Michigan State; they beat Oklahoma by 3 in last game. Shockers have #3 eFG% defense in country- they don’t start any seniors. Oklahoma State is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by point to Maryland, 32 to UNC; Cowboys split two true road games, with games decided by total of five points- they’re forcing turnovers 26.6% of time, #3 in country. Big X underdogs are 8-4 vs spread away from home; MVC home favorites are 17-9 vs spread.

VCU outscored Middle Tennessee State 18-7 over last 6:34 in 62-56 win LY; Rams shot only 31.7% from floor for game. Rams are 2-2 vs top 100 teams this year, beating LSU/Princeton, losing to Baylor by 8, Illinois by 18. VCU is turning ball over 21.2% of time, not good. MTSU is 10-1 vs schedule #91, with wins at Ole Miss, Vandy, Belmont. Blue Raiders won their last eight games; they’re 3-0 vs top 100 teams, with only loss at home to Tennessee State. Conference-USA road underdogs are 21-19 vs spread; Atlantic-14 home favorites are 15-25.

Texas A&M is 7-2 but losses are to USC/UCLA, Pac-12 rivals of Arizona. Aggies are #297 in experience; they’re shooting only 29.9% on arc, 62.4% on foul line- their only top 100 win in three tries was by 3 over Va Tech. Arizona is thin/young; they beat stiffs in last three games, are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, beating Michigan State, losing to Butler by 4, Gonzaga by 7. Aggies are playing pace #337; their first true road game isn’t until January 3. SEC home favorites are 23-23 vs spread; Pac-12 road underdogs are 7-6.

Arkansas-Texas was a big rivalry when they were both in same league- this game is in Houston, a semi-neutral site. Razorbacks are 8-1 this season, with only loss by 13 at Minnesota, their only game away from home. Arkansas is #32 experience team that is deep; they’re grabbing 40.6% of own misses (#6 in country). Texas lost four of last six games; they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with best win by 9 over Alabama- three of Longhorns’ five wins are vs teams outside the top 200. Texas is shooting 28.6% on arc, and not forcing turnovers like Smart’s VCU teams did.

Purdue is 8-2 with both losses top 10 teams (Villanova/Louisville); they lost by 31 to Notre Dame in last meeting two years ago. Boilers are making 44.1% of their 3’s (#5) this year, have #4 eFG% in country.- they’re 2-2 vs top 100 teams, with wins over Arizona State/Auburn. Notre Dame was 9-0 before 8-point loss to Villanova last week; Irish are #59 experience team thats played schedule #294- they’re #1 in country on foul line and at protecting ball. ND is 3-1 vs top 100 teams with wins over Iowa/Northwestern of Big 14.

Indiana beat Butler 82-73 in last meeting two years ago; Bulldogs beat IU in OT in previous meeting in 2013. Hoosiers are 8-1 vs schedule #333 (they’ve beaten Kansas/UNC); they’re #312 in experience but play lot of guys- their one loss was in OT at Fort Wayne. Butler is forcing turnovers 23.3% of time (#23); they’ve got five top 100 wins but lost by point at #161 Indiana State. Bulldogs beat Vandy/Arizona on neutral floor in Las Vegas. Big 14 favorites are are 6-3 vs spread on neutral floors. Big East underdogs are 5-5 vs spread on neutral floors.

UCLA is an offensive juggernaut so far; they’re 11-0 vs schedule #257, scoring 100+ points in five games. Bruins beat Nebraska by 11/Michigan by 18 in games vs Big 14 foes- they’re making 45.3% on arc (#1), 62.8% inside arc (#1) at pace #13. This game is in Las Vegas, just second game they’ve played outside of California (won at Kentucky). Ohio State is 8-2 with both losses by a basket but one of them was at home to Fla Atlantic. Buckeyes have #38 eFG% defense; they’re 2-1 vs top 100 teams, beating Providence/UConn. Interesting game.

North Carolina is 8-4 vs Kentucky in meetings when both teams were in top 10- they lost 84-70 to Wildcats in last meeting two years ago. Tar Heels are #135 experience team playing pace #40 with a deep bench. UNC is 10-1 with only loss by 9 at Indiana- they’re 5-1 vs top 100 teams but struggled in last game, beating Tennessee 73-71. Kentucky is #347 experience team that is 9-1 vs schedule #187 while playing pace #11. Wildcats are 3-1 in top 100 games, with wins over Michigan State-Valparaiso-Arizona State. This is Kentucky’s 4th neutral court game already.

Northwestern is 8-2 vs schedule #299; if they want to make NCAAs for first time, would be good idea to win this game. Wildcats are 2-2 in top 100 games, but wins are over Texas/Wake Forest- they lost to Butler/Notre Dame by total of six points. Dayton is 2-2 vs top 100 teams, losing to Nebraska/St Mary’s; Flyers are #69 experience team but they’ve been thinned by injuries. Wildcats had surprisingly tough 68-64 home win over #329 Chicago State in their last game. This game is at United Center, a virtual home game for Northwestern.

Illinois is #44 experience team that will get its coach fired if they don’t make NCAAs; Illini is 8-3 vs schedule #163- they won last four games, including wins over NC State/VCU- they turn ball over 20.6% of time, a little high for a team playing pace #227. BYU is 7-3 vs schedule #248; they played #3 tempo so far, are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, beating Princeton/Colorado, losing to USC by Valparaiso by 3, both on neutral floors. Cougars are #298 experience team but their team is little older than most because lot of their players go on Mormon missions.

Chattanooga is 8-2 vs schedule #181; they split pair of top 100 games, losing to North Carolina by 40, beating Tennessee by 13. Mocs are #36 experience team that forces turnovers 24.1% of time (#12)- they’re 3-1 in true road games. Vanderbilt has new coach, is 5-5 vs schedule #108; Commodores are 0-5 vs teams ranked #130 or higher, with losses to Middle Tennessee and Bucknell. Vandy makes 41.4% outside arc (#13) but only 44.5% inside arc (#290). SEC home favorites are 23-23 vs spread; SoCon road underdogs are 15-12.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB*|*ORAL ROBERTS*at*CREIGHTON
Play Over - Home teams against the total after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more 3 straight games
46-18*over the last 5 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)
3-3*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.3 units*)

CBB*|*MIDDLE TENN ST*at*VA COMMONWEALTH
Play Against - An underdog vs. the money line (MIDDLE TENN ST) after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a top-level team (>= 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%)
48-10*since 1997.**(*82.8%*|*33.8 units*)

CBB*|*N IOWA*at*IOWA
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 playing with 5 or 6 days rest against opponent playing with 7 or more days rest
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

New Mexico Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico

Odds: New Mexico (-7); Total set at 63

The college football Bowl season officially gets going on Saturday and the first game on the card is a rare true home game for a Bowl team.

The New Mexico Lobos, who finished with an 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS record, get to play on their own field as they host the UTSA Road Runners. This will be the first ever Bowl game for the Road Runners who have only been in FBS for five seasons and you know that program will be hyped up to be on the Bowl stage.

Things won't be easy for UTSA here as they've got to go on the road against a very partisan crowd which isn't always the case this time of year. The Road Runners finished the campaign with just a 6-6 SU and ATS record, and four of those defeats did come away from home.

Getting a touchdown here against a Lobos team that's on their own field is something that not too many casual bettors will want to back, but this UTSA team does have a history with New Mexico and could surprise many on Saturday.

The strength of UTSA's attack is that it's a balanced approach that highly values time of possession. HC Frank Wilson is in his first year with the program, but he was previously at LSU as a running back coach and is known as one of the best recruiters in the country. Having just taken over for Larry Coker in January, Wilson's recruiting skills haven't really bore fruits as of yet, but Coker left the program with significant stock and Wilson has made the most of it this year.

The Road Runners will likely aim to dominate the time of possession in this game to keep New Mexico's offense off the field and subsequently keep the partisan home crowd out of the game. IF UTSA is successful in that, then this game has a great chance to go down to the wire.

While Bowl games at home can appear to be a huge advantage on the surface, in practice that's not always the case. Players miss out on a lot of unique Bowl experiences in that regard with all the pre-game events taking on a different feel. There is no sightseeing for New Mexico players to do in a different locale and while the business approach of winning a game does fit better here, these college kids like to get out and go new places during this time of year and when they don't – like New Mexico here – it's tough to really be highly energized for the Bowl game.

Im not saying that will be the case for a Lobos squad, but this team got to their first Bowl game in decades a year ago and wouldn't you know it it was this same New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos lost that game 45-37 vs Arizona and I would not be surprised to see a similar result this season.

On the other hand, there is no question that New Mexico's returning players would have learned from last year's disappointment, but asking them to win by a touchdown is too much here. There defense has been torched in recent weeks to the tune of 84 points allowed over their final two games and when that's the case, the possibility for a back-door cover by UTSA increases.

UTSA has a tremendous run defense that should negate much of the advantage New Mexico has enjoyed on the ground this year (361 yards/game), and with UTSA on a 5-1 ATS run against winning teams, taking the points is the way to go here.

Best Bet: Take Texas-San Antonio +7


Las Vegas Bowl (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Houston Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Odds: Houston (-3.5); Total set at 55

Arguably the best game on the first day of Bowl games, this Houston/San Diego State game should have a bit of everything. These are two very good programs that finished the year with just three losses each, and San Diego State is coming off a Mountain West Championship.

It's Houston that's generating all the headlines leading up to this game as HC Tom Herman has moved on to bigger things by taking the job at Texas, and leaving DC Todd Orlando to coach this contest.

Backing teams that lose their head coaches at this time of year is always a slippery slope and while Houston does have some very impressive victories this season (Oklahoma, Louisville), you can't help but wonder if the players on this team are prepared to play their best this week.

Interim HC's are always put in a tough spot during Bowl season and it's a situation that the Houston Cougars program knows all too well. This will be the third time since 2007 that the Cougars put an interim HC on the sidelines for one game and the fourth time in that span that they've gone into their Bowl game with a different HC from the regular season.

Big names like Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and now Tom Herman have all used the Houston program as a launching point for their careers, and should Major Applewhite experience similar success with the program starting next year and beyond, it would not be surprising at all to see him move to a bigger school. So on one hand, this program is used to dealing with situations like this, but that also doesn’t make it any easier.

For senior QB Greg Ward Jr, this will be the second time in three seasons that he's had to deal with that change and typically it's got to be considered a warning sign for bettors.

Another knock against those looking to back Houston here is the fact that the Cougars have been burning money since the start of October. Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games with the lone win coming in their tremendous 36-10 upset as 17-point underdogs vs. Louisville.

This team has been the definition of one that plays up or down to the level of their competition and given all the changes within the program recently, I don't see them “getting up” for this game against the Aztecs as they did vs the likes of Louisville and Oklahoma.

The fact that Houston promoted their DC to the interim HC position doesn't do them any favors either when they've got to deal with arguably the best RB in the nation in Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey has 2018 rushing yards on the season, an average of 6.1 per carry, and needs 108 yards on the ground in this game to be College Football's leading rusher of all time.

That's quite an accomplishment for a RB that doesn't get mainstream attention at San Diego State, but that school is known for producing quality RB's (Marshall Faulk). There's no question that SD State will lean heavily on Pumphrey and their talented defense to limit Houston's offensive possessions in this game and they should have quite a bit of success in doing so.

Houston's defense doesn't have the full attention of their DC right now with him being the HC and that could end up being a disaster for the Cougars here.

So while the majority of bettors, according to Vegas Insider, have been betting on the Cougars for this game (70%+), I'm not shy at all about being in the minority here. San Diego State is more of an unknown program to the majority of bettors and people often don't want to back a team they know little about.

But after Pumphrey sets the all-time rushing record and leads his Aztecs to an outright win and improves upon their 4-1 ATS mark when coming off a win, the entire nation will garner more respect for this Aztecs program.

Best Bet: Take San Diego State +3.5 (and don't be scared about a ML bet either).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: North Carolina Central Eagles (9-2) at Grambling State Tigers (11-1)

Date: December 17, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

North Carolina Central is looking to take another step in what has been a banner season, but tradition-rich Grambling State is standing in the way.

The teams meet Saturday in the Celebration Bowl in Atlanta.

This is the first postseason appearance in the Division I era for N.C. Central, which was the outright champion in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference after sharing the title the previous two seasons.

"We have a chance to make some history," N.C. Central coach Jerry Mack said. "We have a chance to go out there and play one more game and everybody knows this will be the last game of 2016."

The Eagles (9-2), who are from Durham, N.C., have won nine consecutive games since opening the season with a loss to cross-city opponent Duke and then falling the following week at Western Michigan, which remains undefeated.

The credentials are impressive for Grambling (11-1) as well after winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference. Only a 10-point loss at Arizona prevented an unblemished record for the Tigers.

These Football Championship Subdivision teams give up the chance to participate in the FCS playoffs to play in the Celebration Bowl.

"We're pleased with being able to represent the SWAC for the Celebration Bowl," said Grambling coach Broderick Fobbs, who has directed his first SWAC title team. "We have the ability to win in different ways, scoring in different ways and stopping people different ways. That's the definition of a champion."

N.C. Central didn't have to share the MEAC title because it defeated arch-rival North Carolina A&T to end the regular season Nov. 19.

"It's what we work for, what we strive for every year," Mack said. "We finally got outright champs. Words cannot express how proud everybody is."

Mack said that playing in the Celebration Bowl gives the university a chance to enhance its brand on a bigger stage. He said the Eagles were motivated by seeing N.C. A&T generally receive more attention.

"We felt like we had been disrespected a lot during the course of the year," he said. "(Now we have another) chance to showcase our talents. ... We still have work for our final destiny and that's to be No. 1 (among historically black colleges and universities)."

Grambling is a 25-time champion of the SWAC, defeating two-time defending champion Alcorn State in this year's conference championship game Dec. 3 in Houston.

With Saturday's Celebration Bowl in the Georgia Dome, it will mark the third game in a row in an NFL venue for the Tigers. They played in the Superdome in New Orleans in beating Southern in the annual Bayou Classic and then played the SWAC title game at NRG Stadium in Houston.

In the SWAC title game, the Tigers overcame a sluggish start.

"We've won many different ways," Fobbs said. "We've been very dominant early. We've been in close battles and to win at the end. Then there have been times when we've been down and had to come back."

Mack said the SWAC tends to be more pass-oriented that the MEAC, and he is aware that Grambling has the personnel to back that up. Grambling quarterback Devante Kincade has thrown for more than 2,800 yards.

The Tigers also have big-play capability from running back and return specialist Martez Carter, who was the Most Valuable Player in the SWAC championship game with 348 all-purpose yards.

With nearly a month between games for the Eagles, there has been ample opportunity to consider tweaks that might be beneficial.

"Just fine tune our systems that are already in place," Mack said. "Any wrinkles that we want to put in. We've had plenty of time to look at the game plan and see what needs to be fixed."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gildan New Mexico Bowl betting preview: New Mexico vs Texas-San Antonio

New Mexico Lobos vs Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (+7.5, 59.5)

It will be a program participating in its first bowl game against a school playing in rather-familiar territory Dec. 17 when Texas-San Antonio tangles with New Mexico on its own University Stadium turf in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 17 in Albuquerque. The Roadrunners, of Conference USA, beat Charlotte 33-14 in their regular-season finale to earn a bowl invitation in their sixth season of play, matching the FBS earliest-bowl-bid record shared by South Alabama (2014) and Georgia State (2015). Meanwhile, the Lobos of the Mountain West Conference will be making their second straight and fourth overall New Mexico Bowl appearance in the 11-year history of the post-season contest.

Guided by fifth-year coach Bob Davie, 8-4 New Mexico is in the midst of its best season in a decade and is seeking the fifth nine-win campaign in the program’s 85-year history. The Lobos, however, are 3-8-1 in bowl games, including 1-2 in the New Mexico Bowl, and its 2007 New Mexico Bowl win over Nevada stands as its only bowl victory since 1961. The Lobos went 5-1 in Albuquerque this season, and won six of its last seven games overall to earn a share of the Mountain West Mountain Division title at 6-2.

Like the Mountain West, Conference USA also is sending seven teams to bowls, with UTSA joining Old Dominion as first-time FBS post-season participants. The Roadrunners are guided by first-year coach Frank Wilson, who had spent the previous 11 seasons as an SEC assistant, and they finished second in the C-USA’s West Division with a 5-3 record. UTSA went 3-4 against bowl qualifiers during the regular season and played the two Power Five opponents – Arizona State and Texas A&M – tough in 32-28 and 23-10 losses, respectively.

TV: 2 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Lobos opened the week as 7-point favorites and that numbered held until Thursday before inching up to 7.5. The total opened at 62.5 and briefly moved up to 63, before fading late in the week to 59.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “College bowl season begins Saturday, with a couple of entertaining games. In the Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Will UT-San Antonio be able to showcase enough defense against a fast-moving Lobos offense? Vice-versa will the Lobos defense be able to handle the methodical move-the-chains approach from UT-San Antonio?” - Zack Cimini

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened New Mexico as a 7 point favourite and took all the early action on New Mexico to cover (a 77% clip) We have since moved to New Mexico -7.5 which has started to bring some action in on UTSA +7.5, 40% to be exact." - Michael Stewart.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for University Stadium Saturday afternoon is calling for partial cloudy skies with a passing shower with temperatures in the mid-40’s and 18mph winds coming in from the southeast.

INJURY REPORT:

New Mexico - DL William Udeh (questionable, knee), RB Tyrone Owens (probable, foot)

Texas-San Antonio - C Juan Perez-Isidoro (questionable, undisclosed)

ABOUT THE LOBOS (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 10-2 O/U): On the legs of running backs Teriyon Gibson (120.9 yards per game, 12 TDs) and Tyrone Owens (98.5 yards, seven TDs), the Lobos and their option attack lead the FBS in all the major rushing categories, including total yards (4,331), yards per game (360.9) and yards per carry (6.81). Quarterbacks Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca have shared time, but the former is the more potent rushing threat with 658 yards and three TDs on the ground for New Mexico, which averaged a Mountain West-best 37.8 points per outing and is fewer than 100 yards away from setting a school single-season record for total offense. Defensive linemen Nik D’Avanzo (60 total tackles) and Garrett Hughes (team-most 6.5 sacks) were All-Mountain West second-team selections and lead a unit which allows 32.4 points and 397.3 yards per game.

ABOUT THE ROADRUNNERS (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Roadrunners rely heavily on their 1-2 rushing punch of senior Jarveon Williams, the program’s all-time leading ground gainer, and sophomore Jalen Rhodes, who have combined for 1,903 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns this season. UTSA’s passing attack is average all around under junior quarterback Dalton Strum, who averages 192.9 yards of total offense per game and has accounted for 22 total TDs with junior wide receivers Josh Stewart (36 receptions-682 yards-five TDs) and Kerry Thomas Jr. (31-510-8) serving as his top targets. Defensively, the Roadrunners ranked third in C-USA with an average of 28.3 points and fourth with an average of 400 yards allowed per game, and are led by freshman linebacker Josiah Tauaefa – the first UTSA player to earn first-team all-Conference-USA honors – who currently ranks third among FBS freshmen in tackles with a program single-season-record 104 total stops, including 7.5 tackles for loss.

TRENDS:

* Lobos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 6-0 in Lobos last 6 non-conference games.
* Over is 12-2 in Lobos last 14 games overall.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of the picking public is grabbing New Mexico and 58 percent are taking the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (6-6) at New Mexico Lobos (8-4)

Date: December 17, 2016 2:00 PM EDT

New Mexico and the University of Texas-San Antonio were in a rush to get to a bowl game.

The Roadrunners (6-6, 5-3 C-USA) are eligible for the first time in program's brief six-year history. They won seven games back in 2013, but they were in the final year of reclassifying to the FBS and not eligible to play in the postseason.

This season, UTSA won five of its last eight games to finish second in Conference USA's West Division.

New Mexico (8-4, 6-2 Mountain West) is bowl-eligible for the second straight year after earning a piece of the Mountain West Mountain Division title.

The Lobos led the nation in rushing this season at 361 yards per game. Two players -- Teriyon Gipson and Tyrone Owens -- each topped 1,000 yards rushing. Two others reached the 500-yard mark.

The Roadrunners also boast a potent rushing attack with Jarveon Williams, the Roadrunners' all-time leading rusher, and Jalen Rhodes. The two combined for 1,883 yards and 18 touchdowns this season.

The running games of UTSA and UNM will be on display when the Roadrunners and Lobos clash in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl on Saturday at 2 p.m. ET at University Stadium in Albuquerque, N.M.

The architect of the Lobos' vaunted triple-option rushing attack is Bob Davie, the one-time Notre Dame head coach. New Mexico compiled 4,431 yards on the ground this season with Gipson and Owens averaging a nation's best 9.2 and 8.1 yards per carry.

The Roadrunners face a "tremendous challenge," USTA head coach Frank Wilson said. "We haven't seen it all year. We watched it on tape so far. It's a pretty dominant offense. It requires our team to be extremely disciplined in their assignments and things that they're asked to do to be able to slow down such a potent offense."

Wilson, who is in his first year with UTSA, knows more than a little about potent rushing attacks -- he was the running backs coach at LSU under Les Miles for five years before landing in San Antonio.

The best way to prepare is just practice, practice and more practice.

"If someone else gets a little nosy and wants to get the quarterback and not the dive, not the pitch, then we can put ourselves in trouble," Wilson said. "So repetition is our greatest asset right now and practice will do that for us."

The Roadrunners play a physical brand of football with the goal of dominating in the trenches -- hallmarks of Wilson's LSU teams. He also came to UTSA as one of the best recruiters in the country and was able to immediately upgrade the roster with a solid freshman class and a number of graduate transfers from Baton Rouge.

What the Roadrunners have accomplished has not been lost on Davie, who has long-running ties with UTSA athletic director Lynn Hickey.

"It's been a long journey," Davie said, citing the road UTSA has traveled as a start-up program. "I have tremendous respect for them because I know how much courage it took and how much foresight it took, particularly at the time they got started and the economy took a little hit. So it took a lot of courage to keep it going. I have great respect for that program."

UTSA certainly has earned that respect this season.

The Roadrunners feature a balanced attack with not only two rushers over 700 yards, but two receivers, Josh Stewart and Kerry Williams Jr., who have combined for 1,200 yards.

Quarterback Dalton Sturm has thrown for 2,052 yards and 18 touchdowns against only five interceptions. He is confidant the Roadrunners will complete this historic season on a high note.

"I go into each game as if it's the biggest game of the season," Sturm said. "It's about all of us winning together as a team."

Sturm's New Mexico counterpart, Austin Apodaca, has completed just 53 passes for just over 650 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions.

On defense, the Roadrunners hold their opponents to 152 yards. But can they control the line and stop the Lobos on the ground?

UTSA and UNM have played twice before, splitting a home-and-home series in 2013 and 2014. UTSA won the first meeting (Aug. 31, 2013) in Albuquerque 21-13. New Mexico came back to win on Oct. 4, 2014, 21-9 in San Antonio.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Las Vegas Bowl betting preview: Houston vs San Diego State

Houston Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs (+4.5, 52)

Houston interim coach Todd Orlando guides the Cougars into the Las Vegas Bowl matchup with San Diego State on Dec. 17 after Tom Herman departed to become Texas coach. Houston has never won bowl games in three consecutive seasons so the current group has plenty to play for against the Aztecs. San Diego State is attempting to match the school mark for victories and is participating in a bowl for the seventh straight season, the longest streak in school history.

San Diego State senior running back Donnel Pumphrey (6,290 yards) sits 108 yards away from surpassing Wisconsin's Ron Dayne (6,397) as the all-time leading career rusher in FBS history. Moving past Dayne doesn't come without controversy for Pumphrey as the NCAA didn't recognize bowl statistics during Dayne's career from 1996-99, otherwise Dayne's yardage total is 7,125. Pumphrey rushed for 2,018 yards in the regular season but figures to be tested by the Cougars, who rank third nationally in rushing defense (97.9 yards per game) and allow just 2.9 yards per carry.

Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is playing the final game of his spectacular career and ranks fifth in school history in both passing touchdowns (52) and passing yardage (8,476). Ward accounted for 31 touchdowns (22 passing, nine rushing) this season while throwing for 3,328 yards and rushing for 518. His health is something to watch as Ward has been dealing with shoulder soreness for most of the campaign but leg soreness could have an effect as well on a player who has 38 career rushing touchdowns.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Houston as 3-point favorites and has inched up to 3.5 in Todd Orlando’s first game as Cougars coach. The total opened at 55 and has faded to 52.5 late in the week.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “It's odd to see a Las Vegas Bowl partake without a Pac-12 representative. Yet, Houston's offensive display should pose as better on field value as opposed from a bottom-tier Pac-12 representative.” - Zack Cimini

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Houston as a 3 point favourite and took all Houston action early, over 85% worth. We are now sitting at Houston -4 with just under 75% of the action on them to cover." - Michael Stewart.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Sam Boyd Stadium in Whitney, Nevada for kickoff is mostly sunny with temperatures in the high-40’s and slight winds coming from the south.

INJURY REPORT:

Houston - WR Linell Bonner (probable, shoulder), WR Ra’Shaad Samples (questionable, concussion), QB D’Eriq King (out, knee)

San Diego State - No injuries to report.

ABOUT THE AZTECS (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Aztecs have won 11 games three times in their history and this year's squad is a run-based team that relies on Pumphrey and junior Rashaad Penny (995 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns). Pumphrey rushed for 16 touchdowns while shattering numerous records held by school legend Marshall Faulk and Penny averaged 7.9 yards per carry running the ball as well as averaging 31.9 yards and scoring two touchdowns on kickoff returns. Sophomore quarterback Christian Chapman (19 touchdowns, six interceptions) isn't asked to do a lot in passing game and San Diego State rides a sturdy defense led by senior cornerback Damontae Kazee (seven interceptions this season, school-record 17 in his career) and senior outside linebacker Calvin Munson (team-best 108 tackles).

ABOUT THE COUGARS (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, 8-5 O/U): Ward fuels an attack that averages 38 points per game and junior receiver Linell Bonner caught 93 passes for 1,076 yards but only found the end zone three times. The Cougars' best player is freshman defensive tackle Ed Oliver, who posted 19 1/2 tackles for losses (including five sacks) but he could be hampered in the bowl game by a balky knee. Sophomore cornerback Howard Wilson intercepted a team-best five passes while senior outside linebacker Steven Taylor had a team-best 72 tackles for the unit run by Orlando, who is hoping to land the full-time head-coaching gig after recently interviewing for the post.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
* Cougars are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Aztecs are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Cougars last 6 games in December.
* Over is 5-1 in Aztecs last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: 56 percent of the betting public is grabbing Houston and 69 percent are taking the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Houston Cougars (9-3) at San Diego State Aztecs (10-3)

Date: December 17, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

LAS VEGAS -- Standing 5 feet 9 and weighing 165 pounds, Donnel Pumphrey was considered too small to play running back by many schools coming out of Canyon Springs High School in North Las Vegas.

Rivals.com rated Pumphrey the fourth-best prospect in the state of Nevada. Scout.com gave him a two-star ranking. San Diego State had to beat out schools such as Oregon State, Duke and lukewarm interest from hometown UNLV to garner his services.

But the spotlight will be a big one shinning on Pumphrey in the 25th annual Las Vegas Bowl when Mountain West champion San Diego State (10-3) plays Houston (9-3) on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC) at Sam Boyd Stadium, only an 18-mile drive from Pumphrey's old high school.

Pumphrey (6,290 yards) needs 108 yards to surpass Wisconsin's Ron Dayne (6,397) as the all-time leading career rusher in FBS history.

Dayne, speaking on the Wisconsin State Journal's "The Red Zone" podcast last month, said he believes he's getting shortchanged however.

"He's gonna have (an asterisk) by his name if he breaks the record anyway," said Dayne, who starred at Wisconsin from 1996-1999. "They didn't use none of my bowl games."

Valid point. The NCAA began counting bowl games toward regular season and career statistical totals in 2002, but it did not go back and add bowl totals for players who played before 2002. If it had, Dayne's total, counting bowl games, would be 7,125, including 200 yards in the 2000 Rose Bowl.

"Records are made to be broken," Dayne said. "Good luck to him, and I wish him the best."

Pumphrey, a first team All-American by Walter Camp and Sports Illustrated, ranks second in the country in rushing yards (2,018), rushing yards per game (155.2) and all-purpose yards (2,229) despite not playing in the fourth quarter in four of the past seven games. He is the only player in NCAA history with at least 5,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards.

Despite all those glossy numbers, he wasn't one of five players invited to New York for the recent Heisman Trophy ceremony, another reason for him to play with a chip on his shoulder.

"I'm very disappointed. I think he deserves to be there," San Diego State coach Rocky Long said last week. "I knew all along that it was a long shot because of a lot of things, us being a non-Power 5 program and being on the West Coast. Those are two big deterrents for him being invited, but it's very disappointing. But he's the Heisman winner in our minds and heart."

Houston promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to become coach after Tom Herman departed to become Texas coach. Defensive coordinator Todd Orlando, who had been serving as the interim coach since Herman accepted the Texas job Nov. 26, assumes his usual duties as defensive coordinator and then is expected to join Herman at Texas.

The Cougars, who opened the season with a 33-23 upset of eventual Big 12 champion Oklahoma and also stunned then-No. 5-ranked Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson 36-10, saw their bid for a second straight New Year's Six bowl berth go by the wayside when they lost to Navy 46-40 midway through the season.

Houston also lost to SMU and Memphis and finished fourth (5-3) in the West Division of the American Athletic Conference.

Cougars quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is playing the final game of his spectacular career and ranks fifth in school history in passing touchdowns (52) and passing yardage (8,476). Ward accounted for 31 touchdowns (22 passing, nine rushing) this season while throwing for 3,328 yards and rushing for 518 despite battling a shoulder injury.

Houston's rushing defense, led by freshman nose tackle Ed Oliver (19.5 tackles for loss, five sacks) and senior outside linebacker Steven Taylor (72 tackles, 8.5 sacks), ranks third in the nation at 97.9 yards per game which makes Pumphrey's quest to break Dayne's rushing mark even more interesting. The Cougars limited opponents to 22.6 points per game.

Senior cornerback Damontae Kazee (seven interceptions this season, school-record 17 in his career) and senior outside linebacker Calvin Munson (team-best 108 tackles) lead San Diego State's defense. Kazee is the first cornerback in Mountain West history to win the defensive player-of-the-year award twice and the fifth player overall, joining Tank Carder (2010-11 at TCU), Jerry Hughes (2008-09 at TCU), Eric Weddle (2005-06 at Utah) and Kirk Morrison (2003-04 at San Diego State).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Automation Cure Bowl betting preview: Central Florida vs Arkansas State

Central Florida Knights vs Arkansas State Red Wolves (5.5, 49.5)

Arkansas State and Central Florida both made major turnarounds to arrive at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. for the AutoNation Cure Bowl on Dec. 17. UCF went 0-12 in 2015 but won six of its first 10 games this season under first-year coach Scott Frost before losing to Tulsa and South Florida. Meanwhile, the Red Wolves began the season 0-4, including a 51-14 loss to Auburn, before winning seven of their last eight to gain a share of their fifth Sun Belt Conference title in six years.

The teams are led by their defenses, which both rank in the top 50 in yards allowed per game and are among the top 15 in sacks. The Knights allowed a total of nine points to American Athletic Conference rivals Tulane and Cincinnati in the first two games of November and are led by linebacker Shaquem Griffin (85 tackles, 11 sacks). Arkansas State has allowed an average of 13.7 points over its last seven contests while defensive ends Chris Odom and Ja’Von Rolland-Jones have combined for 24 sacks.

Arkansas State starts a sophomore quarterback in Justice Hansen while UCF is led by freshman signal-caller McKenzie Milton - and each has had his moments. Milton, who played in nine of the last 10 games after taking over for senior Justin Holman, is averaging almost 201 yards through the air with nine touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Hansen did not open the season as the starter but has thrown for 2,514 yards with 16 TDs and eight interceptions – 10 and two, respectively, in the last six games.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN.

LINE HISTORY: The Knights opened the week as 6.5-point favorites and during the week it has slowly faded a full point to 5.5. The total opened at 49 and has been bet up a half-point to 49.5.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Camping World Stadium is calling for mostly sunny skies, winds out south southeast ranging from 6-10 mph and temperatures in the mid-80’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Central Florida - No injuries to report

Arkansas State - DE Chase Robison (probable, undisclosed), OL Devin Mondie (probable, shoulder), LB Trent Ellis (questionable, undisclosed), DL Waylon Roberson (questionable, knee)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Straight bets is pretty Even, with more Action on Central Florida. On Parlays and on Teasers the Action is on Central Florida and the Game to Go Over. The Total’s Action is on the Game to Go Over."

ABOUT THE KNIGHTS (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U): The Knights return to the postseason for the first time since losing to North Carolina State 34-27 in the 2014 St. Petersburg Bowl, dropping to 3-4 in the program’s history that includes a 2013 Fiesta Bowl triumph over Baylor. Milton has thrown for 458 yards in his last two games and has one premier target in sophomore Tre'Quan Smith, who has made 54 receptions for 808 yards along with five touchdowns. UCF is 96th in the nation in rushing (151.9 yards), with freshman Jawon Hamilton (481, four TDs) and senior Dontravious Wilson (463, eight) leading the way.

ABOUT THE RED WOLVES (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): Hansen has a variety of weapons at his disposal as five receivers have accumulated 300 yards, including tight end Blake Mack (33 catches, 585 yards, three touchdowns) and senior wideout Kendall Sanders (33, 426, four). Running back Warren Wand has recorded 867 yards and seven scores on the ground for the Red Wolves, who are 2-4 in bowl games as they prepare for their sixth in a row. The defense (374.5 yards allowed) has had several contributors, including senior linebacker Xavier Woodson-Luster (team-leading 88 tackles).

TRENDS:

* Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Knights last 7 games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Red Wolves last 4 games following a ATS loss.

CONSENSUS: 55 percent are taking Arkansas State and 51 percent are taking the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) at UCF Knights (6-6)

Date: December 17, 2016 5:30 PM EDT

The two best defensive players in their respective conferences will be featured when Arkansas State and Central Florida clash in the AutoNation Cure Bowl on Saturday.

Kickoff at Camping World Stadium in Orlando is at 5:30 p.m. ET (CBS).

Defensive end Ja'Von Rolland-Jones was the Sun Belt Conference's overall Player of the Year for the Red Wolves (7-5).

"I think any time a defensive player is picked as Player of the Year it's a little bit surprising," Wolves coach Blake Anderson said. "It doesn't happen that often."

Rolland-Jones tied for the Sun Belt lead in tackles for a loss with 18 1/2 and had 11 1/2 sacks (second). Just a junior, he already has become the program's career leader in tackles for loss with 28 1/2.

For the Knights (6-6), junior Shaquem Griffin, a first-time starter at linebacker after being moved from the secondary, was American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year. He led the league and was 10th in the FBS in sacks with an average of 0.92 per game (11 total). He had 19 tackles for loss along with an interception and six pass breakups.

"To be Named Defensive Player of the Year is unbelievable," he said. "I couldn't have dreamed of this."

Griffin was just one of four players who keyed the defensive surge that helped the Knights to a six-win improvement after their winless 2015 campaign. His twin brother, senior cornerback Shaquill Griffin, was named second team all-defense along with junior nose guard Jamiyus Pittman. Senior safety Drico Johnson was honorable mention.

Defensive end Chris Odom, offensive tackle Jemar Clark, and defensive back Money Hunter were first-team all-Sun Belt for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves will be without defensive tackle Waylon Roberson because of a knee injury.

The bowl will be a virtual home game for the Knights, who play in Bright House Networks Stadium on campus.

"I think it's wonderful that we get to play right here in the great city of Orlando," first-year coach Scott Frost said. "I think it's going to give us an opportunity to have a lot of fans."

Anderson, whose team won seven of its last eight games to gain at least a share of the Sun Belt title for the fifth time in the last six years, said his players were excited when they learned their destination.

"Great way to finish up a season, back-to-back championships," Anderson said. "To recover from 0-and-4, this is going to be a great opportunity. Big challenge as well."

Sophomore quarterback Justice Hansen leads the Red Wolves offense. He passed for over 209 yards per game with 16 touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Sophomore running back Warren Wand led the rushing with 867 yards.

UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton (200.9 passing yards per game) made nine starts as a true freshman. Running backs Jawon Hamilton, also a true freshman, and Dontravious Wilson rushed for 481 and 463 yards, respectively.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl betting preview: Appalachian State vs Toledo

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs Toledo Rockets (-1, 59.5)

Appalachian State will return to familiar grounds and aim for similar results when it plays Toledo on Dec. 17 in Montgomery, Ala. The Mountaineers, co-champions of the Sun Belt Conference, faced Ohio last season in the second year of the Camellia Bowl and came away with a 31-29 victory inside the 21,000-seat Cramton Bowl. Toledo, which was the runner-up in the West Division of the Mid-American Conference, will be making its sixth bowl appearance in the last seven years, most recently beating Temple 32-17 in last season's Marmot Boca Raton Bowl - the first game as coach for Jason Candle.

Both teams feature 1,300-yard rushers, but Appalachian State has a second running back that's topped 1,400 each of the last two seasons in senior Marcus Cox. He'd likely be nearing that mark again if not for a four-game absence caused by a left quadriceps injury that occurred at the end of a negated 79-yard touchdown run on Sept. 17 against Miami. His injury opened the door for Jalin Moore to receive more playing time, however, and the sophomore responded by rushing for at least 100 yards in eight of the last nine games, giving the Rockets two explosive ball carriers on which to focus.

Toledo wasn't able to topple unbeaten Western Michigan in the MAC championship game on Nov. 25, but few offenses have kept up with the Rockets this season. Behind the nation-leading 43 touchdown passes by junior quarterback Logan Woodside, they enter the bowl season ranked eighth in the nation in passing offense at 329.1 yards per game and fourth in total offense at 529.8. Appalachian State, by comparison, was 10th in the Sun Belt Conference in pass offense during the regular season (184) and second in total offense (429.6).

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Rockets opened as 1-point favorites and that line was bumped up to 1.5 for most of the week before fading back to 1 Thursday afternoon. The total opened at 57 and has been slowly inching up throughout the week to 58.5.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Straight bets the Action is heavier on Appalachian State. On Parlays and on Teasers the Action is on Appalachian State and the Game to Go Over. The Total’s Action is on the Game to Go Over." -

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Montgomery, Alabama at kickoff is mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the high 60’s at kickoff with winds to the north at 9 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Appalachian State - OL Beau Nunn (probable, undisclosed), WR Shaedon Meadors (probable, foot)

Toledo - No injuries to report

ABOUT THE MOUNTAINEERS (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Not only will Cramton Bowl be a familiar site for coach Scott Satterfield, but the Rockets likely will bring back memories as well. Satterfield was the passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach at Toledo in 2009 - serving on the same staff as Candle, who was in his first year as a 29-year-old slot receivers/tight ends coach. Satterfield also still is young at 43 but has experience and proven success, likely putting both on short lists to replace coaches at higher-profile programs such as Cincinnati and Indiana.

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-6-1 O/U): The Rockets have a solid running game they can implement if Appalachian State floods the secondary, and Kareem Hunt has some incentive to end his collegiate career on a high note. He enters the game with 1,355 rushing yards on the season and 4,825 for his career, 25 away from passing Chester Taylor as the school's career leader. Hunt has produced 27 performances with at least 100 rushing yards during his stay at Toledo and has become a dependable receiver as well, catching at least three passes in eight games this season - another reason why he was invited to participate in the Senior Bowl.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Rockets last 6 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent of the betting public is taking Toledo and 64 percent are taking the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3) at Toledo Rockets (9-3)

Date: December 17, 2016 5:30 PM EDT

Appalachian State and Toledo will meet for the first time when they clash in the Raymon Media Camellia Bowl on Saturday in Montgomery, Ala., but the two coaches are not strangers.

Mountaineers coach Scott Satterfield spent a season as Toledo's passing game coordinator before moving on Florida International and then to Appalachian State. Toledo coach Jason Candle was the Rockets wide receivers coach while Satterfield was on the Toledo staff.

"I have a tremendous amount of respect for Toledo and how they play the game," Satterfield said. "Having been there in 2009, it is a similar program to what we have at Appalachian State, a blue-collar program. Their guys play hard and physical.

"Jason has done an outstanding job taking over there."

Candle reciprocated.

"I certainly have a lot of respect for Scott and what he has been able to do with that football program," he said. "I think it's really cool."

The Rockets (9-3) and Mountaineers (9-3) will kick off at 5:30 p.m. ET at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, with ESPN airing the action.

The Rockets will be making their 16th bowl appearance overall and sixth in the last seven years, but Candle considers the postseason anything but routine.

"At Toledo, we don't take these opportunities very lightly," he said. "In 2013, we were 7-5 and did not get invited to a bowl game."

There wasn't much in the way of doubt this time around. The Rockets reached bowl eligibility with their sixth win (31-17 over Central Michigan) on Oct. 22 and added three more wins before losing to undefeated Western Michigan 55-35 in the season finale.

Junior quarterback Logan Woodside led an offensive surge by throwing an FBS-high 43 touchdown passes and setting a school record in passing yardage with 3,882, completing 69.1 percent of his attempts.

"Logan has had a tremendous season," Candle said, citing his quarterback's work ethic. "He's a gym rat in the old-school sense."

Wide receivers Corey Jones and Cody Thompson combined for 119 catches and tight end Michael Roberts had 43. Running back Kareem Hunt topped off a 1,300-yard rushing season with 200 yards against Western Michigan, his 27th career triple-digit rushing game.

Appalachian State, which beat Ohio 31-29 in last year's Camellia Bowl, will counter Toledo's prolific passing game with a defense that has allowed only 10 touchdown passes and ranks No. 3 nationally in interceptions with 20, five by freshman cornerback Clifton Duck.

The Mountaineers have a two-pronged rushing game with Jalin Moore leading with 1,367 yards and veteran Marcus Cox, who missed four games to injury, adding 847. Cox is the nation's No. 2 active rusher with 4,960 yards. No. 3 is Toledo's Hunt with 4,825.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl betting preview: Southern Mississippi vs UL Lafayette

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (6, 59)

Louisiana-Lafayette needed to win its final two games to become bowl eligible and did just that with triumphs over Arkansas State and Louisiana-Monroe in the last two weeks. Southern Miss, which will face the Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl on Dec. 17, dropped three in a row beginning in November to fall out of the bowl picture before stunning Conference USA West champion Louisiana Tech in the regular-season finale to even its record. The Golden Eagles are making their second straight bowl appearance while Louisiana is back after missing out in 2015.

The Ragin' Cajuns should feel right at home in the Superdome after making four straight appearances in the New Orleans Bowl from 2011-14. Louisiana earned the win on the field in all four trips - beating San Diego State, East Carolina, Tulane and Nevada, but two of the victories were later vacated. Southern Miss lost to Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl last year and also is making its fifth appearance in the New Orleans Bowl after wins in 2004, 2005 and 2008 and a loss in 2009.

The Golden Eagles are led by senior quarterback Nick Mullens, who returned from a two-game absence due to a concussion in the regular-season finale and totaled four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) to help clinch the bowl berth. Mullen will go up against a Ragin' Cajuns pass defense that allowed opposing signal-callers to complete 62 percent of their throws during the regular season but have tightened things up of late. Louisiana surrendered 31 passing yards in its victory over Louisiana-Monroe.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Golden Eagles 2-point favorites, that wasn’t enough for betting public and has since jumped up to 6 as of Friday. The total opened at 58 and has been bumped up a full point to 59.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Straight bets the Action is heavier on Southern Miss. On Parlays the Action is heavier on Southern Miss and the Game to Go Over. On Teasers the Action is on UL Lafayette and the Game to Go Over. The Money Line Action is heavier on Southern Miss. The Total’s Action is on the Game to Go Over."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "ULL returns to a bowl game after a 4-8 season last year and the Cajuns are in familiar territory as they went to the New Orleans Bowl four straight years from 2011-2014 and won them all. This is a weaker version of those teams however as they come in at 6-6, were outgained on average and have a pretty weak defense. Southern Mississippi also comes in at 6-6 and really struggled late in the season as it opened 4-1 before finishing 2-5. The Golden Eagles defeated Louisiana Tech in the season finale to become bowl eligible and that also snapped a seven-game ATS losing streak. Their defense struggled as well so a high scoring game could take place in New Orleans." - Matt Fargo

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Southern Mississippi - DL Derrick Dixon (questionable, undisclosed), QB Parker Adamson (questionable, leg), K Parker Shaunfield (questionable, undisclosed)

UL Lafayette - RB Darius Hoggins (probable, ankle), WR Jared Johnson (probable, concussion), WR Michael Jacquet (probable, ankle), DL Jarvis Jeffries (probable, groin), RB Raymond Calais (questionable, shoulder)

ABOUT THE GOLDEN EAGLES (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U): Mullens is playing his final college game after setting a school record with 85 career touchdown passes and found a new weapon in the finale in Keon Howard. Howard, who started two games at quarterback while Mullens was out, shared the field against Louisiana Tech while serving as a receiving and a wildcat threat in the backfield. Running back Ito Smith rushed for 1,321 yards and 15 TDs while adding 42 receptions to an offense that averages 33.4 points.

ABOUT THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U): The Ragin' Cajuns will start a senior at quarterback as well in Anthony Jennings, who remarkably guided his team to a win in the regular-season finale without recording a passing yard (2-of-5 for zero yards). Running back Elijah McGuire rushed for over 1,000 yards for the third consecutive season and has recorded 52 career touchdowns (10 receiving). Louisiana turned things around on the defensive end down the stretch en route to bowl eligibility and totaled three defensive TDs in its final two games.

TRENDS:

* Golden Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
* Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Golden Eagles last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Bets are split 50/50 on the line, while the over is getting 61 percent of the action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (6-6)

Date: December 17, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

NEW ORLEANS -- That Southern Miss and the University of Louisiana have had up-and-down football seasons is obvious.

Both teams are 6-6 and barely bowl eligible, but the two interstate neighbors will face each other moving in the right direction in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Saturday night at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Southern Miss, which finished 4-4 in Conference USA, has quarterback Nick Mullens back at full strength after the talented gunslinger dislocated a bone in his right (throwing) thumb in a 55-32 loss at Texas-San Antonio on Oct. 8 and then suffered a concussion later in the season.

Louisiana-Lafayette, which had an inconsistent offense led by LSU transfer quarterback Anthony Jennings, won four of its last six games and its last three Sun Belt Conference games to finish 5-3 in league play.

Southern Miss coach Jay Hopson said the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Mullens showed remarkable toughness in the game against Texas-San Antonio, telling the USM medical staff to push the bone in his right thumb back into place and tape it up. He returned to the game and threw a touchdown pass to close the gap to 48-32 midway through the fourth quarter.

"It's the most amazing thing from a quarterback that I've seen," Hopson said. "He was throwing some balloon balls out there, but the bottom line is that's the competitor in him. He's a young man who kept fighting and battling. ... (Now) he's 100 percent."

Mullens then suffered a concussion in a 38-27 loss to Charlotte on Nov. 5 and sat out the next two games. Despite missing three games, Mullens completed 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,926 yards, 22 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

The Rajin' Cajuns of Louisiana-Lafayette played consistently on defense all season -- led by linebackers Otha Peters and Tre'maine Lightfoot -- but the offense has finally shown signs of life, said coach Mark Hudspeth. Running back Elijah McGuire has had three consecutive seasons of rushing for at least 1,000 yards (215 carries, 1,028 yards this season), and Jennings, the LSU transfer, finally seems to be settling in.

"This is an exciting time for our team, especially since we feel we're peaking and playing our best ball of the year," Hudspeth said. "Anthony Jennings has been up and down, but I like the way he's kept working and kept a good attitude and the way he's progressed. You've certainly seen the last four or five weeks what it would have looked like if he had a spring or a summer with our guys."

Although the bowl game is flying below the radar, both teams' fans bases are within 130 miles of New Orleans and should travel well. Hudspeth said his fans have been forgiving for a viral internet video in November in which four Rajin' Cajun players were seen chanting lyrics from a song expressing a strong distaste for Donald Trump.

"There were some things said that (we) didn't mean, and we apologized," Hudspeth said. "Those were hard times, but so many fans reached out to us. One person told me, 'Tough times don't last. Tough people do.' Our team has been tough in overcoming adversity."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Las Vegas Bowl highlights Saturday's bowl betting action
By PATRICK EVERSON

College football’s bowl season is officially upon us, with five games on Saturday kicking off a slew of postseason action over the next couple of weeks. We talks with Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, and Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, about where the action is on the first quintet of contests.

Las Vegas Bowl

Houston Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs – Open: +3; Move: +4.5; Move: +4

With a season-opening upset of Oklahoma and a favorable American Athletic Conference schedule, Houston certainly had higher hopes than playing on the first day of bowl season. But a stunning Week 6 loss at Navy, followed by a blowout loss at Southern Methodist two weeks later, scotched those plans.

The Cougars (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) did notch an impressive 36-10 home win over Louisville as a 17-point underdog in their penultimate regular-season game, but followed that with a 48-44 loss at Memphis giving 6 points. Just one day after that game, it was announced that coach Tom Herman would be leaving Houston for the Texas job, and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was promoted to head coach a week ago.

CG opened Houston at -3 on Dec. 5, and it reached 4.5 a couple times over the past couple of days, before going back to 4 Friday afternoon.

“Obviously, the early money on Houston,” Simbal said of action at CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian. “But lately, we’ve seen a lot of action coming back on San Diego State on the moneyline, at about +150, +160. So you’re looking at a situation where, as a book, we’re gonna need the middle here. We’re gonna need the favorite to win without covering. Houston by 1, 2 or 3 will be the best position for the books.”

William Hill also opened at 3 and was at 4.5 on Friday for this 3:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

“All the money’s been on Houston,” Bogdanovich said. “A good game, lots of good stories there – Houston’s coach, (Aztecs running back) Donnel Pumphrey going for the NCAA rushing record.”

Pumphrey needs just 108 yards to surpass Ron Dayne’s career total of 6,397 yards, and the Aztecs star will be at home to try to do it, as he’s a Las Vegas product.

The storylines and a good matchup seem to have bettors’ attention.

“We’re gonna write more tickets to this one than the other (Saturday) games,” Bogdanovich said. “Money-wise, maybe not, but a lot of people are in town for the game. And unless we take a big bet on the ‘dog, we’ll definitely need San Diego State.”

New Mexico Bowl

Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners vs. New Mexico Lobos – Open: -7; Move: -7.5

New Mexico gets an extra home game once again, as for the second straight season, it will appear in the first bowl game of the year, with a 2 p.m. Eastern kickoff. The Lobos (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) made it this far by winning six of their last seven games (5-2 ATS), capping the regular season with a 56-35 rout of resurgent Wyoming catching 3 points at home on Nov. 26.

Texas-San Antonio is playing in its first-ever bowl game, in the program’s sixth year of competition and the fourth as a full Football Bowl Subdivision member. The Roadrunners (6-6 SU and ATS), out of Conference USA, barely reached bowl eligibility, topping Charlotte 33-14 as a 12.5-point chalk to reach six wins in their regular-season finale.

“All the money is on New Mexico, and I’d say that’s public money,” Bogdanovich said. “The Lobos are getting another bowl game at home. I don’t know if that’s good or bad. The players maybe want to be rewarded by getting to go somewhere else. But Bob Davie will have them ready to play. UTSA will definitely be excited to be there.”

Cure Bowl

Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Central Florida Knights – Open: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5

Central Florida certainly has more name recognition here, but Arkansas State is drawing wagering attention the past week. The Red Wolves (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) opened the season 0-4 SU and ATS, then won seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS), capped by a 36-14 victory at Texas State as a 25.5-point fave on Dec. 3.
The Knights (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) dropped their last two games, including a 48-31 loss at South Florida as a 12.5 point pup on Nov. 26.

“This is one where they’ve actually been betting the underdog, Arkansas State. They’ve been betting them on the moneyline and plus the points,” Simbal said in explaining the 2-point drop in the line before some late-week buyback on Central Florida. “So Arkansas State is certainly a live ‘dog here, as a lot of the sharp action has come in on the moneyline.”

William Hill also opened at 6.5 and was down to 5.5 over the past couple of days, then back to 6 by Thursday night for this 5:30 p.m. Eastern matchup.

“We’re pretty even on the game, money for both sides,” Bogdanovich said. “Arkansas State closed pretty good. Anytime you’ve got a ‘dog finishing the season strong, you’ll get some people on them. Right now, it’s a good two-way game.”

Camellia Bowl

Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Toledo Rockets – Open: Pick ‘em; Move: none

Appalachian State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) went 8-1 SU in its last nine games, finishing it off with a 37-7 rout at New Mexico State laying 20 points to share the Sun Belt Conference title with Arkansas State. Toledo (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) was on a 6-1 SU stretch before running into undefeated Western Michigan to close the regular season, losing 55-35 as an 8-point road ‘dog.

“That’s a good game. App State a really good program the last couple years,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve been at pick the entire time. It’s the epitome of a pick ‘em game. Two quality programs, definitely the second-best game of the day, after Houston-San Diego State. Action is dead two-way right now, and we’ll see where it goes.”

While William’s Hills shops all around Nevada have remained at pick ‘em, Bogdanovich noted other shops around Las Vegas have swayed between Toledo a small favorite and App State a small chalk. The game kicks off at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

New Orleans Bowl

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns – Open: +3; Move: +3.5; Move: +4; Move: +5; Move: +5.5; Move: +6

The Saturday nightcap, with a 9 p.m. Eastern kick, pits two teams making short road trips to the Superdome. Southern Miss has steadily risen as the favorite over the past two weeks, despite limping into this game on slides of 2-5 SU and 1-7 ATS. The Golden Eagles (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) at least closed strong, pulling a 39-24 home upset of Louisiana Tech as a 14.5-point pup on Nov. 25.

Louisiana-Lafayette (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) won three of its last four to get bowl-eligible, including a 30-3 rout of Louisiana-Monroe laying 5.5 points on Dec. 3.

“A regional battle, so both teams should have some fan base there. This game might even be more entertaining than Dolphins-Jets,” Bogdanovich said, noting the NFL game overlaps the New Orleans Bowl. “Of the two, I’ll be watching the bowl game. The sharps are on Southern Miss, and the public hasn’t gotten involved yet.”

CG books also opened the Golden Eagles at -3 and steadily went up this week, settling at 6 Thursday.

“The early betting action here has been of the sharp variety, and it’s come on Southern Miss as the favorite,” Simbal said. “This is a situation where, you know, most of the public money in kind of these lower-tier bowl games doesn’t really start showing up ‘til game day. So they’re likely to bet the favorite, as well. Not a great situation for the books, needing the ‘dog in this one.”

That said, the Ragin’ Cajuns are back in this game for the fifth time in six years, having won and cashed in 2011, ’12, ’13 and ’14.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico**

-- This is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl that’ll be played at New Mexico’s home venue, University Stadium in Albuquerque. This is the Lobos’ second straight appearance in this postseason game after losing a 45-37 decision to Arizona last season as nine-point underdogs.

-- As of Thursday night, most betting shops had New Mexico (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The number has moved up from seven earlier in the week, while the total has dipped down from 62.5 points. The Roadrunners were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).

-- UNM was a single-digit favorite only once this year, beating Utah St. 24-21 as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk’ on Nov. 12. The Lobos closed out the regular season by smashing Wyoming 56-35 as three-point home underdogs. They led 35-7 at intermission and 42-7 midway through the third quarter. Lamar Jordan led the way by rushing for 176 yards and one TD on just 12 carries. The junior quarterback also completed 4-of-5 passes for 122 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Teriyon Gipson ran for a team-best 217 yards and two TDs on 13 attempts. RB Richard McQuarley also eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark with 121 yards and three TDs on 15 totes.

-- Bob Davie’s team leads the nation in rushing offense, averaging 360.9 yards per game. Gipson has rushed for 1,209 yards and 12 TDs while averaging an eye-opening 9.2 yards per carry. Tyrone Owens has run for 1,084 yards and seven scores with an 8.1 YPC average, while Jordan has 658 rushing yards and three TDs. McQuarley has rushed for 588 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.

-- New Mexico doesn’t throw it much. Jordan has connected on 37-of-71 passes (52.1%) for 604 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Austin Apodaca has completed 53-of-96 throws for 654 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Q’ Drennan has 11 receptions for 284 yards and three TDs.

-- Owens missed the regular-season finale with a foot injury and is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UTSA. Starting senior nose tackle William Udeh also missed the win over Wyoming and is ‘questionable.’ Udeh has recorded 12 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack.

-- UTSA (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) beat Charlotte by a 33-14 count in its regular-season finale to secure its first bowl-game appearance in program history. Dalton Sturm threw for 286 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Kerry Thomas had five receptions for 145 yards and one TD.

-- Sturm, the junior signal caller, has completed 58.2 percent of his throws for 2,052 yards with an 18/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sturm has also rushed for 263 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Stewart has a team-best 36 receptions for 682 yards and five TDs, while Thomas has 31 catches for 510 yards and eight TDs.

-- UTSA’s ground game is led by the 1-2 combination of Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes. Williams has run for 775 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.1 YPC. Rhodes has rushed for 756 yards and nine TD with a 5.3 YPC average.

-- Frank Wilson led UTSA to a second-place finish in Conference USA’s West Division with a 5-3 record in league play. The Roadrunners went 3-4 against teams that made the postseason. They compiled a 4-3 spread record with two outright victories as underdogs. Wilson’s squad faced one team from out of the Mountain West Conference in Week 2, losing 23-14 at Colorado St. as an 8.5-point ‘dog. UTSA squared off with a pair of Power Five foes, losing 32-28 to Arizona St. as a 21.5-point puppy and 23-10 at Texas A&M when catching 27 points. The Sun Devils actually trailed the Roadrunners 28-12 midway through the third quarter and 28-15 going into the fourth.

-- UTSA’s defense is led by redshirt freshman LB Josiah Tauaefa, who was the program’s first player to earn first-team All C-USA honors after recording a program-record 104 tackles, including 7.5 for loss. Tauaefa is ranked third among FBS freshmen in tackles.

-- The ‘over’ is 10-2 overall for New Mexico, 6-0 in its home games. The Lobos have seen their games average combined scores of 70.2 PPG.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Roadrunners (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.2 PPG.

-- Kickoff on Saturday is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Houston vs. San Diego State**

-- The Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Sin City features a matchup of the AAC vs. the Mountain West. As of Thursday night, most spots had Houston (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Aztecs were available on the money line for a +160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers).

-- Houston went 22-4 in 26 games under Tom Herman, who left UH to take the Texas job shortly after the Cougars dropped a 48-44 heartbreaker at Memphis in their regular-season finale at the Liberty Bowl. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has been tabbed as UH’s new head coach.

-- Houston probably has the best true freshman in all of America in DT Ed Oliver, who has lived up to his 5-star billing and then some. Oliver has produced 61 tackles, 19 TFL’s, five sacks, three forced fumbles, nine passes broken up and seven QB hurries. Senior LB Steven Taylor has registered a team-best 72 tackles, 11 TFL’s, 8.5 sacks, four QB hurries, two PBU, a pair of forced fumbles and one pick-six.

-- Houston opened the season with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as a 13-point underdog at NRG Stadium in H-Town. Senior QB Greg Ward Jr. was the catalyst, throwing for 321 yards and two TDs without an interception. Duke Catalon rushed for 88 yards on 22 totes, while Steven Dunbar hauled in seven receptions for 125 yards. Catalon also had four catches for 29 yards and one TD.

-- Houston has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, posting a 1-2 spread record.

-- One of those non-covers from the single-digit ‘chalk’ role was an outright defeat at Memphis. The Tigers won in come-from-behind fashion as six-point home underdogs thanks to Riley Ferguson’s 10-yard scoring strike to Anthony Miller with 19 seconds remaining. UH held a 624-555 advantage in total offense, but the Cougars were minus two in the turnover department. Ward completed 47-of-67 passes for 487 yards and four TDs with one interception. He also ran for a team-high 65 yards on 16 attempts. Catalon rushed 13 times for 60 yards and one TD while also catching seven balls for 41 yards. Linell Bonner had 17 receptions for 235 yards and one TD, while Chance Allen had eight catches for 73 yards and two TDs.

-- For the season, Ward has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,328 yards with a 22/9 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-high 518 yards and nine TDs, while Catalon has 510 rushing yards and four TDs. Catalon, a transfer from Texas, missed four games with injuries and averages only 3.9 YPC.

-- Bonner has a team-high 93 receptions for 1,076 yards and three TDs. Allen has 56 grabs for 815 yards and six TDs, while Dunbar has 51 catches for 669 yards and five scores.

-- Houston is ranked third in the nation in rush defense and 14th in total defense.

-- Houston has won back-to-back bowl games, beating Pitt 35-34 in 2014 as a 3.5-point ‘dog at the Armed Forces Bowl. Then last year at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, the Cougars thumped FSU by a 38-24 count as seven-point ‘dogs.

-- Houston took its other two defeats at Navy (46-40) and at SMU (38-16). The Cougars posted quality wins over Tulsa (38-31), UCF (31-24) and Louisville. They hosted U of L on a Thursday night as 17-point home underdogs. Bobby Petrino’s team was still in the mix for a CFP berth, but UH destroyed the Cardinals 36-10 and cashed money-line tickets for their backers to the tune of a monster return in the +550 range.

-- San Diego State (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) played a soft schedule, which is evidenced by its first underdog spot of the season here. Nevertheless, the Aztecs won the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by capturing a 27-24 win at Wyoming as seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Rashaad Penny rushed for 117 yards and two TDs on 16 carries, while Donnel Pumphrey ran for 110 yards and one TD on 25 attempts.

-- San Diego State lost two of its last three games, going 0-3 ATS. The Aztecs dropped a 34-33 decision at Wyoming two weeks before returning to Laramie to exact revenge. They closed the regular season by getting smashed 63-31 at Colorado St.

-- San Diego State is led by Pumphrey, the senior who has shredded all of Marshall Faulk’s school rushing records Pumphrey rushed for a career-best 2,018 yards and 16 TDs this year, averaging 6.1 YPC. He also had 26 catches for 205 yards. Penny has rushed for 995 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

-- San Diego State QB Christian Chapman has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,866 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. Chapman’s favorite target is Mikah Holder, who has 26 receptions for 569 yards and five TDs. Penny has 14 catches for 220 yards and three TDs.

-- San Diego State started the season 3-0, only to get thumped 42-24 at South Alabama as an 18.5-point road favorite in Week 5. The Aztecs responded with six straight wins while going 5-1 ATS, but then they lost their last two regular-season contests.

-- San Diego State is 12th in the nation in total defense, 11th in defending the run and 19th in scoring (21.0 PPG). This unit has lost three starters to season-ending injuries since late October, including LB Na’im McGee, LB Randy Ricks and CB Billy Vaughn.

-- Rocky Long has led San Diego State to six straight postseason appearances since taking over. The Aztecs are 2-3 both SU and ATS in those bowl. They drilled Cincinnati 42-7 as 2.5-point favorites at last year’s Hawaii Bowl.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Aztecs, cashing in five of their last six outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Cougars, going 4-1 in their last five games.

-- ABC will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.