Saturday 12/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Appalachian State vs. Toledo**

-- This is the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl that’ll be contested in Montgomery, Alabama, otherwise known as ‘The Gump.’ This game will feature the MAC against the Sun Belt with Toledo taking on Appalachian State. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Toledo (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 60.

-- Toledo started 3-0 before losing a 55-53 decision at BYU in a wild, back-and-forth affair in Provo. The Rockets covered the spread as three-point road underdogs. There were four ties and nine lead changes, including one tie and five lead changes in the final stanza. BYU pulled into a 45-45 tie on Rhett Almond’s 32-yard field goal with 5:21 remaining, and the Cougars went ahead 52-45 on Jamaal Williams’s 14-yard TD run with 3:00 left. Toledo answered on Kareem Hunt’s seven-yard TD run with 1:11 remaining and then first-year head coach Jason Candle brazenly chose to go for two. The conversion was good when Logan Woodside hit Michael Roberts for a three-yard scoring pass. However, trailing 53-52, BYU quickly moved into field-goal range and then actually had two plays inside the 10 that could’ve resulted in a TD and a spread cover. That didn’t happen, though, with Almond’s 19-yard FG proving to be the game winner (unless you were holding a BYU -3 ticket). Woodside completed 30-of-38 passes for 505 yards and five TDs with two interceptions. Hunt rushed for 146 yards and one TD on 27 carries.

-- Following the loss to BYU, Toledo enjoyed another three-game winning streak before dropping a 31-26 decision to Ohio as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ The Rockets bounced back with a third three-game winning streak before losing 55-35 at Western Michigan to close the regular season. Their best wins were at Arkansas State (31-10), at Eastern Michigan (35-20) and vs. Central Michigan (31-17).

-- Toledo is fourth in the nation in total offense, eighth in passing and 18th in scoring, averaging 38.8 points per game. Woodside, the junior signal caller, enjoyed a sensational campaign. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Corey Jones, an electrifying speedster who thrives on special teams, has 60 receptions for 745 yards and five TDs. Jones has 1,525 all-purpose yards. Cody Thompson has 59 catches for 1,170 yards and 10 TDs, while Jon’Vea Johnson hauled in 38 balls for 751 yards and 10 TDs. Roberts has 43 catches for 514 yards and 15 TDs.

-- Hunt, a three-time All-MAC selection, needs only 25 rushing yards against the Mountaineers to become the school’s all-time leader. He produced 1,355 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average during his senior campaign. Hunt also had 39 catches for 377 yards and one TD. His 200-yard effort on 20 attempts was a season-high in the regular-season finale at Western Michigan.

-- Toledo has been a single-digit favorite just once this year, easily cashing tickets in the 31-10 win over Arkansas State as a 4.5-point road favorite.

-- Appalachian State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) nearly shocked the country on the Thursday night of Week 1 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Scott Satterfield’s squad was a 21.5-point road underdog at Tennessee, but it jumped out to a 13-3 intermission lead. However, a missed extra point by freshman Michael Rugino, in addition to a 42-yard fourth-quarter field goal that sailed wide right, would come back to haunt the Mountaineers. On a third-and-goal play on the first possession of overtime, UT QB Josh Dobbs dove for the end zone, only to get stuck by an ASU defender and cough up the ball. The fumble was recovered by Jalen Hurd in the end zone for a TD. ASU’s incomplete pass on fourth and five ended the game, but the Mountaineers easily covered the number as 21.5-point road underdogs.

-- After thumping Old Dominion 31-7 as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ App. State welcomed Miami to Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone for the biggest home game in the program’s history. Things didn’t go well, however. A long run by Marcus Cox was called back and the star RB was injured in the first quarter. The Hurricanes rolled to a 45-10 win as 4.5-point road favorites.

-- ASU won six in a row after the loss to UM, only to see its winning streak halted in a 28-24 loss at Troy as a two-point road underdog. The Mountaineers bounced back to win their last two games, beating ULM 42-17 at home before blasting New Mexico State 37-7 as 20-point road ‘chalk.’ In the win over the Aggies, Cox rushed for 140 yards on 16 carries while Jalin Moore ran 17 times for 111 yards and one TD. Junior QB Taylor Lamb completed 20-of-28 passes for 220 yards and one TD without an interception. Lamb also rushed for 71 yards and a pair of scores on 10 attempts.

-- After getting injured vs. Miami, Cox missed four consecutive games before returning to run for 115 yards and one TD in a 34-10 win at Ga. Southern. For the season, Cox ran for 854 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Cox is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,942 career yards. He also had 12 catches for 102 yards and one TDs this year. Moore rushed for a team-high 1,367 yards and 10 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.

-- Lamb completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,162 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 379 yards and eight scores. Those numbers were down from his 2015 stats as a sophomore when Lamb threw for 2,387 yards with a 31/9 TD-INT ratio. He ran for 436 yards and five TDs.

-- Lamb’s favorite target is Shaedon Meadors, who has 43 receptions for 698 yards and two TDs.

-- ASU is 15th in the nation in total defense, 23rd in defending the run and seventh in scoring (17.0 PPG).

-- ASU went to this same bowl game last year, defeating Ohio 31-29 but failing to cover as a 7.5-point favorite.

-- When Matt Campbell left Toledo to take the Iowa State job last year, Candle led the Rockets to a 32-17 win over Temple at the Boca Raton Bowl as 2.5-point underdogs.

-- These schools have one common opponent. App. State won 45-38 at Akron, while Toledo coasted to a 48-17 road win against the Zips.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Appalachian State, which saw its games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Rockets, who saw their games average combined scores of 64.1 PPG. The ‘under’ cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in their last six outings.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Central Florida vs. Arkansas State**

-- The Autonation Cure Bowl will take place in Orlando at Camping World Stadium, where Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt against Central Florida from out of the AAC. This contest will kick at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Sports Network.

-- As of Friday, most spots had UCF (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 50. The Red Wolves were +205 on the money line (risk $100 to win $205).

-- Scott Frost, the former offensive coordinator at Oregon, took over for George O’Leary and immediately posted a six-game improvement. The Knights finished 2015 with a 0-12 record, but they’re back in the postseason under Frost’s direction.

-- UCF went 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite during the regular season.

-- UCF lost back-to-back contests to close the regular season, including a 35-20 home loss to Tulsa and a 48-31 loss at South Fla. The Knights gave up 351 rushing yards to the Bulls and they were minus two in turnover margin.

-- UFC’s defense is led by junior LB Shaquem Griffin, who has 85 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, six passes broken up, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one interception. Senior CB Shaquill Griffin is the leader in the secondary, recording 48 tackles, four interceptions, one pick-six, 2.5 TFL’s, one blocked kick and 12 PBU.

-- UFC true freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over the job from senior Justin Holman in Week 3. Milton completed 57.9% percent of his passes for 1,808 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 153 yards and three TDs. Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 54 receptions for 808 yards and six TDs. UFC uses a trio of RBs led by Jawon Hamilton, who has rushed for a team-high 481 yards and four TDs.

-- Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) won seven if its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS after getting out to an abysmal 0-4 start. Blake Anderson’s team lost its first three games by double-digit margins vs. Toledo (31-10), at Auburn (51-14) and at Utah State (34-20). Then the Red Wolves hit rock bottom by losing at home to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, by a 28-23 count as 16.5-point ‘chalk.’

-- From there, however, Arkansas State turned it around with a six-game winning streak that included five wins by double-digit margins. The most impressive of those victories came at Troy on national television. The Trojans were 10-point home favorites, unbeaten in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming at Clemson by just a 30-24 score. Arkansas State limited Troy’s high-octane offense to merely 262 yards and forced five turnovers. Justice Hansen threw for 149 yards and one TD without an interception, while Warren Wand rushed for 90 yards on 17 attempts. Justin Clifton had a pair of interceptions for the defense.

-- Arkansas State has held foes to only 13.7 PPG in its last seven contests. Senior DE Chris Odom leads this unit with a team-best 12.5 sacks, while junior DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones collected 11 sacks. Odom also tallied 52 tackles, 17.5 TFL’s, six QB hurries, four forced fumbles, two PBU and one blocked kick. Rolland-Jones finished the regular season with 53 tackles, 19 TFL’s and six QB hurries.

-- Wand has rushed for a team-high 867 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Hansen has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 2,514 yards with a 16/8 TD-INT ratio. Blake Mack and Kendall Sanders have both caught 33 balls apiece. Mack has 585 receiving yards and three TD grabs, while Sanders has 426 receiving yards and four TD receptions.

-- Arkansas State has been an underdog four times this year, compiling a 2-2 record both SU and ATS with outright scalps at Troy and at Ga. Southern.

-- This is Arkansas State’s third straight postseason appearance under Anderson, but the Red Wolves are looking for their first bowl win on his watch. They lost 47-28 to La. Tech as 1.5-point underdogs at last season’s New Orleans Bowl.

-- The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in Arkansas State games, cashing at a 9-2-1 overall clip. The Red Wolves have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for UCF, going 6-1 in its last seven games. The Knights have seen their games average combined scores of 54.2 PPG.

**Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette**

-- This is the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl that’ll take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Crescent City. Mark Hudspeth’s program is no stranger to this game. In fact, before last year’s dismal 4-8 campaign, the Ragin’ Cajuns not only went to the New Orleans Bowl four straight years, but they won it four consecutive times both SU and ATS. They beat San Diego State 32-30 as four-point ‘dogs in ’11 before besting East Carolina 43-34 as 6.5-point ‘chalk’ in ’12. Also, UL-L edged Tulane 24-21 as a 1.5-point puppy and knocked off Nevada 16-3 as a 1.5-point ‘dog.

-- Southern Miss is no stranger to the New Orleans Bowl, either. The Golden Eagles are also making their fifth appearance. They are 3-1 with wins in ’04, ’05 and ’08 with a loss in ’09.

-- As of Friday, most books had So. Miss (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The line opened at two at The Westgate SuperBook, but it was up to 3.5 within 24 hours. Then on Monday, the number went to four and was to 4.5 by Tuesday and five on Wednesday. The number was up to six as of Thursday. The total opened at 58 points and hasn’t moved much, resting at 58.5 at most place on Friday. The Ragin’ Cajuns can be had on the money line for a nice +200 return.

-- Jay Hopson’s first team at So. Miss got out to a nice start, winning its opener 44-35 at Kentucky after trailing 35-10 late in the second quarter. The Golden Eagles improved to 4-1, with their lone defeat coming at home to Troy by a 37-31 score, by winning at UTEP (34-7) and vs. Rice (44-28) in their first two C-USA games. However, four lopsided defeats followed in the next five outings.

-- The slide began with a 55-32 loss at Texas-San Antonio as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ After a 45-10 loss at LSU, So. Miss briefly stopped the bleeding with a 24-14 non-covering home win over Marshall. Next, the Golden Eagles lost 38-27 to Charlotte as 19.5-point home favorites. Following a 51-35 loss at Old Dominion and a 29-23 setback at North Texas, they had to win the regular-season finale at home vs. La. Tech to get bowl eligible.

-- With a seven-game ATS losing streak to go with five outright defeats in the last six outings, So. Miss produced its best performance in months by beating La. Tech 39-24 as a 14.5-point home underdog. Nick Mullens couldn’t have played better on his Senior Night in Hattiesburg, completing 29-of-33 passes for 342 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ito Smith rushed for 127 yards on 24 attempts and also had four catches for 63 yards. D.J. Thompson had a team-high 12 receptions for 135 yards and two TDs. Junior safety Picasso Nelson had a pair of interceptions.

-- As a junior in 2015, Mullens threw for 4,476 yards with a 38/12 TD-INT ratio. He couldn’t duplicate those numbers this year, however. Mullens missed losses at ODU and at North Texas due to injuries. He finished the regular season by connecting on 63.4 percent of his throws for 2,926 yards with a 22/10 TD-INT ratio. Mullens rushed for four TDs.

-- Smith led the Golden Eagles with 1,321 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. He also had 42 catches for 453 yards and one TD. Allen Staggers is Mullens’s top target. Staggers has 51 receptions for 927 yards and six TDs, while Thompson has 43 catches for 470 yards and six TDs.

-- So. Miss has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, UL-Lafayette has posted a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in six games as an underdog.

-- UL-Lafayette (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) has covered the spread in four consecutive games, including a 30-3 win at ULM as a 5.5-point road favorite in the regular-season finale. The defense forced five turnovers and scored a pair of TDs on scoop and scores. Trevera Miller’s 73-yard return of a fumble recovery gave UL-L a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. Then with 5:10 left until halftime, Otha Peters put his team ahead 21-3 with a 29-yard return of a fumble recovery. Elijah McGuire rushed for 110 yards and one TD on 28 totes.

-- Hudspeth’s team produced its best wins at home over South Alabama (28-23) and Arkansas State (24-19). The Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Red Hawks as six-point home underdogs thanks to three defensive stops on fourth-down conversion attempts and a 17-yard pick-six by junior DT Taboris Lee. UL-L QB Anthony Jennings, a transfer from LSU, threw for 242 yards and two TDs without an interception.

-- McGuire is the school’s second all-time leading rusher with 3,896 career yards. He was a Freshman All-American in 2013 and the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in 2014. He ran for 1,028 yards this season to give him three 1,000-yard rushing years. McGuire averaged 4.8 YPC and had seven rushing TDs. McGuire also had 28 catches for 231 yards and two TDs.

-- Jennings has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,083 yards with a mediocre 11/12 TD-INT ratio. Jennings has rushed for 322 yards and seven TDs. His best WR is Al Riles, who has 55 catches for 665 yards and two TDs. Keenan Barnes has 30 catches for 406 yards and a team-best six TD grabs.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for UL-L, going 5-2 in its last seven regular-season contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have watched their games average combined scores of 48.9 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for So. Miss, but it saw the ‘under’ connect its last two regular-season contests. The Golden Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 PPG.

-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'App State Attempt Camellia Bowl Double-Dip'

They won the 2015 Camellia Bowl in their first year of FBS eligibility, and now the Appalachian State Mountaineers (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) are getting ready to do it again. The Sun Belt co-champions are 1-point underdogs for Saturday’s Camellia Bowl tilt with the Toledo Rockets (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS), kicking off from the Cramton Bowl stadium in Montgomery, Alabama at 5:30 PM ET on ESPN.

The Mountaineers made a name for themselves as the top program in the FCS, and they’ve proven themselves capable of playing quality football at the FBS level – even if they’re in the Sun Belt. The Rockets are another solid team from a weak conference, finishing second in the MAC West under first-year head coach Jason Candle. They’ll bring the offense to Montgomery; App State will supply the defense, with a slight edge in special teams.

This will be a reunion of sorts for Candle and Mountaineers coach Scott Satterfield. They worked together in Toledo under Tim Beckman during the 2009 campaign, Candle as wide receivers coach and Satterfield as QB coach/passing game coordinator. Saturday’s forecast for Montgomery calls for a 55% chance of rain with gusts of wind and a high of 74.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 17

UTSA vs. NEW MEXICO (New Mexico Bowl)...Lobos 6-1 SU, 5-2 vs. line last seven in 2016. UTSA just 2-3-1 vs. line away TY, but 4-2-1 as dog. UNM "over" 12-2 last 14!

“Over,” based on New Mexico “totals” trends.


HOUSTON vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...UH covered just one of last eight this season (1-6-1) and dropped last three SU and vs. line away after 13-1-1 spread mark previous 15 away from home. Though Cougs have won and covered bowls last two years. Aztecs no covers last three this season and just 3-8 vs. spread last 11 vs. non-MW foes. Rocky Long 3-7 vs. line in bowls with New Mexico & SDSU.

Houston, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE vs. UCF (Cure Orlando Bowl)...Sixth straight bowl for Ark State, which has lost last two SU and vs. line. Also no covers last six vs. non-Belt foes. But Red Wolves covered 6 of last 8 this season. ASU also 6-8 last 14 as dog. UCF playing in old home stadium for this one, was 8-4 overall vs. line for Frost and 5-2 as chalk in 2016. Sun Belt sides only 1-4 vs. line in bowls last season.

Slight to UCF, based on recent trends.


APPALACHIAN STATE vs. TOLEDO (Camellia Bowl)...Toledo has won and covered bowls past two seasons, 12-2-1 vs. spread last 15 away from Glass Bowl. App back at Camellia Bowl, where it won but failed to cover LY vs. Ohio. Mounties 5-1 vs. line away from Boone this season. Sun belt 1-4 vs. spread in bowls last year.

Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS vs. UL-LAFAYETTE (New Orleans Bowl)...Fifth New Orleans Bowl in last six seasons for ULL, which is 4-0 SU and vs. line in those previous appearances! Ragin’ Cajuns covered last 4 in 2016 and 4 of last 5 as dog. Prior to upset over La Tech in final to get bowl-eligible, USM had dropped seven straight spread decisions this season.

ULL, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Bowl game writeups

Dec 17

New Mexico Bowl: Tex-San Antonio @ New Mexico
New Mexico stays at home for this bowl, its 4th bowl in last 11 years, all here in Albuquerque. Lobos won six of last seven games to finish 8-4; they’re 5-1 at home, 1-2 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 49-21 to Boise State. New Mexico likes to run ball; they ran for 300+ yards in seven games this year, had an astounding 568 rushing yards in 56-35 win in its finale vs Wyoming. UTSA’s QB is Dalton Sturm, named after Patrick Swayze’s character in Road House; Roadrunners are in first-ever bowl- they went 5-3 in last eight games, covered four of last five- none of their last eight opponents ran for more than 180 yards. New Mexico is 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread; UTSA is 2-2. C-USA non-conference road underdogs are 9-11 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 9-14. Mountain West team covered this bowl the last four years, with underdogs 3-1 vs spread in those games.

Las Vegas Bowl: Houston vs San Diego State
Houston started season with upset of Oklahoma, then upset Louisville later in season, but they also lost to Navy-SMU-Memphis and now they’re in a lesser bowl than they thought and their coach is off to Texas, taking lot of assistants with him. Cougars scored 35-38 points to post upset wins in bowls the last two years; senior QB Ward (also leading rusher) needs a big game here. Houston is 9-0 when they allow less than 38 points, 0-3 when they give up 38+; Cougars are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite. San Diego State lost its last two games, allowing 97 points; they’re 2-3 in bowls the last five years- they play on this field every other year- Aztecs beat UNLV here 52-14 LY. RB Pumphrey is one of nation’s best; Aztecs are 9-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-3 vs D-I teams when they do not. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread this season; Mountain West underdogs are 5-12.

Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State vs Toledo
Toledo won three of its last four bowls, beating Temple LY; Rockets scored 32+ points in four of last five (3-2) bowl games. Toledo is 2-1-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread; they allowed 249+ rushing yards in all three of their losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 249 YR. Appalachian State won 31-29 over Ohio in this game LY, ASU’s first-ever bowl. Mountaineers won eight of last nine games this year after a 1-2 start, with loss to Troy; they’re 2-2 vs spread in games with a single-digit pointspread. ASU lost its season opener in OT at Tennessee. Junior QB Lamb is a 3-year starter for App State. Sun Belt teams are 8-7 in last 15 games with MAC opponents; Toledo opened this year with a 31-10 win over Arkansas State. App State won 45-38 at Akron in September. This is third Camellia Bowl; MAC/Sun Belt split first two, with totals of 61-60.

Cure Bowl, Orlando: Central Florida-Arkansas State
Central Florida was 0-12 LY after being 31-9 the three years before that, now they’re favored in a bowl game. Knights won three of their last four bowls, are playing in hometown here. UCF is 6-6 this year, 4-2 vs number in games with single-digit spread, 4-1 as a favorite- they lost last two games, allowing 83 points. Arkansas State is playing in its sixth straight bowl (under four different HC’s); they’re 0-2 in bowls under Anderson, losing 63-44/47-28. ASU is 7-5 this season after an 0-4 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Red Wolves are 2-2 as underdogs this season. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 6-1 in UCF’s last eight games. Last two years, AAC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-9 vs spread this year. Sun Belt underdogs are 13-13. This is only second Cure Bowl, so no history to lean on here.

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi/UL-Lafayette
UL-Lafayette is playing in this bowl for 5th time in last six years; they won previous four, and were underdog three times- those are ULL’s only bowl appearances. Lot of people will make the trip east from Lafayette. ULL is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 7-2 vs number in games with a single-digit spread. ULL QB Jennings started 14 games for LSU before transferring. Southern Miss lost three of last four games, covered one of last eight; they had to beat La Tech as a 14-point dog to get bowl eligible. USM lost as a 10-point favorite to Troy of Sun Belt. Golden Eagles are 1-6 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread- they’re 1-3 in last four bowl games, they split two trips to this bowl in 2008-09. Underdogs won this bowl SU three of last five years; Sun Belt teams won four of the five.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report
NFL Injury report: Saturday

MIAMI DOLPHINS at NEW YORK JETS
MIAMI DOLPHINS
--Out: QB Ryan Tannehill (knee)
--Questionable: S Isa Abdul-Quddus (neck), T Branden Albert (wrist), LB Kiko Alonso (hamstring, hand), T Jermon Bushrod (shoulder), LB Jelani Jenkins (knee, hand), CB Bobby McCain (hand), LB Spencer Paysinger (thigh), G Anthony Steen (toe), DE Mario Williams (ankle)
NEW YORK JETS
--Out: LB Mike Catapano (knee), LB Lorenzo Mauldin (ankle), DT Steve McLendon (hamstring), CB Buster Skrine (concussion)
--Doubtful: T Brent Qvale (hamstring), RB Khiry Robinson (lower leg)
--Questionable: TE Brandon Bostick (ankle), WR Quincy Enunwa (ribs), RB Matt Forte (knee), WR Brandon Marshall (knee, foot, back), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 15
By Marcus DiNitto

Here are the opening point spreads for Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season, with insight from two Las Vegas oddsmakers – the South Point’s Chris Andrews and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s Ed Salmons.

Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 11:30 p.m. ET on Sunday night. Early line moves and differences among sports books are also noted.

Saturday, Dec. 17

Miami Dolphins (-3 even) at New York Jets

Miami remains in the thick of the playoff race but will have to go the rest of the way without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who suffered a torn ACL in Sunday’s win over Arizona. Matt Moore, who’s been in the league nine seasons but hasn’t gotten a lot of reps over the past five years, takes over.

The dropoff from Tannehill to Moore is worth about 2 points to the betting line, Andrews estimated.

“I’m not the biggest Tannehill fan, but he is their quarterback and they’ve built everything around him the past couple years, so it’s gotta be worth at least a couple of points,” Andrews said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Betting Predictions: Week 15 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

The Miami Dolphins haven't made the playoffs since 2008. They are now 8-5 after blowing a big lead to Arizona on Sunday but then kicking the winning field goal in the south Florida rain as time expired. That's the good news. The bad is that the Dolphins are seventh in the AFC standings and will have to beat out most likely the Denver Broncos or AFC North runner-up between Pittsburgh and Baltimore for that final wild-card spot (Oakland or K.C. will get the first one) without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

It actually was good news on Monday when the Dolphins got tests back on Tannehill's knee and he suffered only a sprained ACL and MCL instead of a torn ACL as the team feared. I was watching that game against the Cardinals, and Tannehill was pretty emotional on the sideline after the injury. It sure seemed like he thought he had torn the ACL. If that had been the case, obviously Tannehill wouldn't play again this season and it would have been a race against the clock to get healthy for Week 1 next year. Just ask someone like Kansas City's Jamaal Charles how tough it can be to get back from a torn ACL. But the sprains will not require surgery. Tannehill's streak of 77 consecutive starts will end this Saturday at the New York Jets, who opened at +3. Yes, a Saturday game. It's that time of year where the NFL schedules some of those with the college football regular season having concluded.

The team thinks it's possible Tannehill could play Week 17 or in the playoffs, but that seems rather pie-in-the-sky. Will Week 17 even matter? The Dolphins almost surely would have to win this Saturday and then Week 16 in Buffalo, both possible, before hosting New England to close the regular season for it to matter. Perhaps the Pats are locked into their playoff seeding by then and rest their starters.

But assuming Tannehill is done, he will finish with a winning record as a starter for the first time in his career. He is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 2,995 yards, 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He's not a great QB by any means but better than journeyman backup Matt Moore, who hasn't started a game since 2011. Moore was 3-for-5 for 47 yards in relief of Tannehill vs. Arizona. Moore hit Kenny Stills on a 29-yard completion that eventually set up Andrew Franks for his winning chip-shot field goal for the win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 15
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (+2.5, 38)

Dolphins' third-down struggles vs. Jets' punt-forcing power

Saturday's showdown with the Jets is a must-win game for the Miami Dolphins, who will have to make their playoff push without injured starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Not only does Miami have to contend with someone new under center - in cold and hostile territory, no less - but it is also facing the prospect of trying to establish the run game against one of the top rushing defenses in football. And then there's the Dolphins' third-down conversion rate, which could make things even rougher.

Extending drives hasn't exactly been Miami's forte through the first 13 games of the season. The Dolphins have the fewest third down conversions in the league (52), and boast the NFL's third-worst conversion rate (34.2 percent). Only the Los Angeles Rams and New York Giants (33.3 percent each) have been worse at turning third downs into first downs. And while it hasn't hurt them of late - the Dolphins come in having won six of seven - it might only be a matter of time before it does.

That time could come as early as this week against a Jets team that is well out of the playoff picture, but still has a defense capable of making life miserable for opponents. New York comes into this one with the eighth-lowest opponent third-down conversion rate in football (37.8 percent), a proficiency that has helped in part mask the team's many deficiencies. If the Dolphins continue to struggle at moving the sticks on third down, their playoff hopes might be extinguished.

Daily fantasy watch: Jets D/ST

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David

Week 14 Recap

The ‘under’ produced a 9-7 mark last weekend as only three teams were able to post 30 or more points up on the scoreboard. Perhaps the biggest surprise from last weekend is that a couple games dealing with the elements went ‘over’ while both indoor games leaned to the low side. Through 14 weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge (104-102-1) on the season.

Be on the Lookout!

-- Including the Rams-Seahawks matchup this past Thursday, we’ve seen 10 totals this season close in the thirties. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in those games and as of Friday afternoon, it looks like there will be three more contests nearing that territory.

-- Ironically, the Browns have seen the ‘under’ cash in five straight games yet none of their totals have ever been in the thirties.

-- The Vikings are staring at their highest total of the season (45 ½) as the Colts visit on Sunday. Minnesota has scored 25, 31 and 25 in its first three matchups against the AFC South this season, all ‘over’ winners. Meanwhile, Indy has seen the ‘over’ cash in all three games versus the NFC North. Not sure what will come of it but running back Adrian Peterson is expected

-- High total in the desert (50) this Sunday between the Cardinals and Saints. Be aware that Arizona is 6-1 to the ‘under’ at home and New Orleans is 4-2 to the ‘under’ on the road.

-- New England visits Denver in Week 15 and it’s been held to 18, 24 and 16 points in its last three trips to Mile High.

-- Two of the best ‘under’ teams meet in New York this weekend as the Giants (10-3) and Lions (9-4) square off.

Divisional Matchups

Miami at N.Y. Jets (Saturday): The Ryan Tannehill injury completely changes the dynamic of this game, especially with Matt Moore taking over at quarterback for Miami. He’s a backup for a reason and even though he helped the Dolphins win last week, he’s a major drop-off. I expect Miami to ground-and-pound the Jets with their running game and try not to make any mistakes. New York is averaging 11 points per game in its last three home games and I don’t see a drastic improvement here. The total (37 ½) is low for a reason and even though the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, it’s hard to make a case for the high side.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Saturday Night Football betting preview: Dolphins at Jets

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (2.5, 37.5)

With quarterback Ryan Tannehill sidelined by an ACL and MCL sprain in his right knee, the Miami Dolphins have little choice but to turn the keys over to veteran Matt Moore in their drive to end an eight-year playoff drought. The 32-year-old Moore will make his first start in five years on Saturday night as Miami begins a stretch of three straight games versus AFC East opponents with a visit to the New York Jets.

"My heart breaks, man. I know how much (Tannehill) just puts his heart and soul into this and hard work," said Moore, who went 3-for-5 for 47 yards to lead Miami to a game-winning field goal in Sunday's 26-23 triumph over Arizona. While the Dolphins reside on the wrong end of a tiebreaker for the final wild-card spot, the Jets' destination is all but assured as they have made themselves comfortable in the cellar of the division. New York snapped a four-game losing skid in impressive fashion on Sunday, however, as Bilal Powell exploded for 179 yards and two touchdowns on 34 touches in a 23-17 overtime win versus San Francisco. Powell could receive the bulk of the work against Miami's 30th-ranked rush defense (133.8 yards per game) with veteran running back Matt Forte nursing a knee injury.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (3) - Jets (4.5) + home field (-3) = Jets -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened the week as 3-point dogs at home and that number had dropped half a point to 2.5. The total opened at 40.5 and that was to high according to the betting public and has been bet down three full points to 37.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The first NFL Saturday match of the season finds AFC East division rivals the Miami Dolphins tackling the New York Jets with the Fish forced to resort to backup QB Matt Moore in this contest. The combination of a cold weather site and the pressure of having to win to stay in the AFC Wild Card chase weighs heavily on Miami, but newbie Jets QB Bruce Petty and a lousy 1-5 record at home this season by the Jets also factors in". Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We absolutely love these off-night games because the handle increases quite a bit. It's not a sext matchup so the majority of the action will come in Saturday, but right now we've got about 70 percent of the money on New York. The sharps took the +3 early and then we've seen some of the public follow suit. The expectance of inclement weather has dropped the total four full points." - Scott Cooley

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for MetLife Stadium Saturday night is calling for 1-2 inches of snow changing to rain, temperatures in the mid-40’s and north winds of 11 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - S Isa Abdul-Quddus (probable, neck), OT Branden Albert (probable, wrist), CB Bobby McCain (probable, hand), LB Spencer Paysinger (probable, thigh), C Anthony Steen (probable, toe), LB Kiko Alonso (probable, hamstring), CB Xavien Howard (questionable, knee), LB Jelani Jenkins (questionable, knee), DE Mario Williams (questionable, ankle), QB Ryan Tannehill (out indefinitely, knee), DE Dion Jordan (IR, knee), C Mike Pouncey (IR, hip), S Reshad Jones (IR, shoulder).

Jets - WR Brandon Marshall (probable, knee), WR Quincy Enunwa (probable, ribs), RB Matt Forte (questionable, knee), LB Mike Catapano (questionable, knee), OL Brent Qvale (questionable, hamstring), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (questionable, ankle), DT Steve McLendon (questionable, hamstring), WR Jalin Marshall (questionable, concussion), LB Lorenzo Mauldin (questionable, ankle), RB Khiry Robinson (questionable, leg), CB Buster Skrine (questionable, concussion), TE Brandon Bostick (questionable, ankle), TE Kellen Davis (IR, elbow), OT Breno Giacomini (IR, back), S Marcus Gilchrist (IR, knee), S Antonio Allen (IR, concussion)

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS, 9-4 O/U): While Moore is known as a bit of a gunslinger, coach Adam Gase likely will look to take pressure off the veteran quarterback and lean on Jay Ajayi and the ground game as it targets a Jets team that was gashed for 193 rushing yards by Carlos Hyde on Sunday. Ajayi amassed 111 yards in Miami's 27-23 victory over New York on Nov. 6 but has struggled to get untracked of late with 154 yards on 50 carries over his last three games. Ajayi recorded back-to-back 200-yard performances with Mike Pouncey in the lineup, but the Pro Bowl center was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with an ailing hip.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-9 SU, 5-8 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U): Quarterback Bryce Petty has enjoyed quite the connection with promising wideout Robby Anderson, with the pair hooking up on a 26-yard reception to set up the winning touchdown in overtime Sunday. The 23-year-old Anderson has converted 23 targets over the last two games into 10 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown. By comparison, veteran wide receiver and former Dolphin Brandon Marshall (team-leading 56 catches, 744 yards) matched his season low with three receptions for 33 yards versus San Francisco.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

CONSENSUS: 64 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road favorite Dolphins and 53 percent are taking the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Dolphins (8-5) at Jets (4-9)

Date: December 17, 2016 8:25 PM EDT

For a guy who has spent most of the last decade as a backup quarterback, Matt Moore has an uncanny knack for intersecting with the New York Jets at pivotal moments of his career.

Moore will make his first start in almost five years on Saturday night, when he replaces an injured Ryan Tannehill for the Miami Dolphins as they visit the Jets at MetLife Stadium.

The opponent for Moore's previous start on Jan. 1, 2012? The Jets, against whom Moore went 22-of-32 for 135 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in the Dolphins' 19-17 win.

"It's rare to see, really, to have that much time in between starts, because something usually happens," Dolphins head coach Adam Gase said Wednesday. "This organization has been fortunate as far as having the same guy behind center game after game."

Tannehill, whom the Dolphins selected in the first round of the 2012 draft, started the first 77 games of his career before suffering a left knee injury in Sunday's 26-23 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Moore, who went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive last week, has attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. The bulk of those came against the Jets on Oct. 28, 2012, when Tannehill suffered knee and quad injuries and Moore went 11-of-19 for 131 yards and one touchdown in the Dolphins' 30-9 win.

"I think I've filled my role the best I could and I've had opportunities to play and it's gone well," Moore said. "I'm lucky I'm surrounded with a great team. I've got great guys on offense to work with."

In another interesting wrinkle, Jets head coach Todd Bowles knows what it's like to work with Moore: He concluded his three-game stint as the Dolphins' interim head coach in the 2011 season finale.

"I have a lot of respect for Matt," Bowles said Tuesday. "He hasn't played in a while -- obviously, Tannehill's been playing good for them. Matt's a competitor. I know he can throw the football and he'll be ready to play."

With Tannehill expected to avoid surgery but miss the rest of the season, Moore's task is as easy as it is imposing: Keep the resurgent Dolphins (8-5) in the playoff race against the Jets (4-9), who are one of only three AFC teams eliminated from playoff contention.

The Dolphins, who haven't reached the playoffs since winning the AFC East in 2008, enter this week tied with the Denver Broncos for the final wild-card spot, though the Broncos enjoy the tiebreaker via a better strength of victory. However, Miami has gone 7-1 in its last eight games while Denver is just 2-4 in its last six games.

Moore said he is trying to keep the same approach even as his job has changed.

"I've talked to coach Gase more, I've probably talked to (quarterbacks coach) Bo (Hardegree) a little more," Moore said. "But nothing crazy has changed. I'm obviously excited. It's an opportunity to win another game and keep us going in the direction we're going."

The Jets' direction has long been established, but Saturday night represents a chance to get a little revenge on the Dolphins while finding out what they have in new starting quarterback Bryce Petty. Miami beat New York 27-23 on Nov. 6, when Kenyan Drake returned a kickoff 96 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 5:15 remaining in the fourth quarter.

"Anybody in our room that doesn't think these guys kicked our butts -- and that's saying it nicely -- then something's wrong with that," Jets special teams coach Brant Boyer told reporters this week. "Hopefully we play a hell of a lot better than we did when we were down there."

Petty made his regular season debut Nov. 6, when he played a series in place of injured quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This will be the third career start for Petty, who was named the permanent starter immediately after a 41-10 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 5. He earned his first NFL win on Sunday, when he led the Jets to 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and overtime of a 23-17 victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

While the Dolphins will be without Tannehill, they enter Saturday in a healthier overall state than the Jets. Tannehill the only Miami player to miss practice Wednesday while linebacker Kiko Alonso (hand, hamstring), linebacker Jelani Jenkins (hand, knee) and defensive end Mario Williams (ankle) were the only ones listed as limited participants.

The Jets, meanwhile, had 12 players listed as did not practice or as a limited participant. Five starters did not participate -- running back Matt Forte (knee), right tackle Brent Qvale (hamstring), linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin (ankle), nose tackle Steve McLendon (hamstring) and cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion).

In addition, the Jets' top two wide receivers -- Brandon Marshall (knee, foot, back) and Quincy Enunwa (ribs) -- were limited participants, as was defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson (ankle).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 15

Saturday Night

Dolphins (8-5) @ Jets (4-9)— Tannehill (sprained ACL/MCL) is out, but maybe not for year; Matt Moore gets his first start since 2011 (13-12 career record). His backup is WKU rookie Doughty, who has never played in NFL. Miami (-3.5) won first meeting 27-23 in Week 9, running kick back for GW TD with 5:15 left in game; that snapped 3-game skid with Jets. Miami has won six of last eight visits here. Dolphins won seven of last eight games overall, are 2-4 on road (won at Chargers/Rams). Jets rallied from down 17-3 at half to win in OT in Santa Clara LW, snapping 4-game skid. New York is 1-5 at home, with three losses by 5 or less points- this is best team Petty has started against (previous starts vs LA/SF). Over is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games, 2-7 in Jets’ last nine. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We followed up our six winners on top day on Thursday at Gulfstream Park with four more top winners on Friday including Gracielta, who drifted up from a 4-1 morning line to return a hefty $22.00 in the second race.

That gives us some momentum going into a good betting card on Saturday that includes five stakes races, three of them graded.

The stakes action starts with the $100,000 Sugar Swirl (G3) for fillies and mares going six furlongs on the main track. The speedy Stonetastic is the 7-5 morning line favorite and she is coming off a sharp win in the Pumpkin Pie at Belmont Park in her last outing.

The $100,000 Rampart (G3) drew a pair of tough fillies from the Todd Pletcher barn is Genre and Eskenformoney. However, let’s give Curlin’s Approval a look off a fourth-place finish in the Raven Run (G2) in her last start.

The Harlan’s Holiday drew three Pletcher runners and any of them could parlay a big performance in this race into a starting spot in the $12 million Pegasus World Cup next month. Keen Ice is the 9-5 morning line favorite.

The $100,000 El Prado is led by 6-5 morning line favorite Heart to Heart, winner of the Knickerbocker (G2) back in October.

The final stake on the card is the $100,000 South Beach with nine fillies and mares going 7 ½ furlongs on turf.

The Pletcher trained Sandiva is the 2-1 morning line favorite. Her main foes figure to be Tuttipaesi (5-2) and Excilly (6-1).


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $62,50 (12:00 ET)
#1 Take Time to Pray 8-1
#7 Tenango 3-1
#9 Flashing Cat 5-1
#11 Red Crème 4-1

Analysis: Take Time to Pray set the early fractions and held on gamely until late in a third place finish last out for this tag, missing the runner up spot in a photo. He makes his third start off the claim by the Abreu barn and looks headed in the right direction form wise. He has done most of his best running here, six of his eight career wins coming over the main track.

Tenango faded to finish a well beaten 10th in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit here on opening day and drops into an easier spot. He beat Alw-1 optional claimers over the main track here three back in his first go for the Sano barn that started off chilly but picked up another win here on Friday. He figures to bounce back facing a softer group here.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,7,9,11
TRI: 1,7 / 1,7,9,11 / 1,4,7,9,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 7 The Harlan's Holiday G3 (3:01 ET)
#4 Awesome Slew 6-1
#1 Stanford 2-1
#6 Keen Ice 9-5
#2 Madefromlucky 3-1

Analysis: Awesome Slew returns off nearly a three month break here for the Plesa barn, his last outing a fifth in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2). The colt set the early fractions and weakened to finish 4 ¾ lengths behind the winner Connect, who returned to win the Cigar Mile (G1) in his next outing while the runner up Gun Runner returned to run second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and then win the Clark ‘Cap (G1). This guy owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and may prove tough to catch if able to shake loose early.

Stanford is one of three Pletcher trainees in here. The colt makes his first start since fading to finish a well beaten eighth in the Met Mile (G1) in June. He was beaten just a head three back over the main track here in a runner up finish in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (G2) and then ran a career top winning the Charles Town Classic (G2). The Pletcher barn is 36% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff.

Keen Ice has the distinction of being the only horse to beat American Pharoah during his historic run in 2015, taking the Travers (G1) and beating the Triple Crown winner by ¾ of a length. The colt has lost seven in a row since then, checking in a non-threatening third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in his last outing. He looks as if he she should be primed for a top effort third off the bench here and a strong effort likely sends him to the Pegasus World Cup (G1) next month. His main knock is going to be his light price.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Queen's County (3:43 ET)
#6 Bay of Plenty 8-5
#1 Unbridled Jean 2-1
#4 Watershed 7-2
#2 War Story 10-1

Analysis: Bay of Plenty makes his third start off the bench and returns to dirt here after a couple of runner up finishes on turf after a 13-month layoff. He broke his maiden on the inner track here and won the restricted Alydar on the main track at the Spa at nine furlongs last summer. The McLaughlin barn is 23% winners moving runners for turf to dirt. This gal is bred to run on a wet track.

Unbridled Jean stalked the early pace and finished up well to beat Alw-3 optional claimers last out at a mile on the main track here. The third place finisher Doyouknowsomething came back to beat Alw-3 optional claimers with a 102 Beyer in his next outing. The Jerkens trainee has run well at nine furlongs with a couple of seconds and a third in three trips. He fits well in this spot as he makes his first career start on the inner track.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #6 Manifest Destiny 8-1
R2: #1 New York’s Zip 8-1
R2: #2 Timber 10-1
R3: #3 Eddie’s Gift 8-1
R6: #1 My Golden Rose 10-1
R7: #5 Do Share 15-1
R8: #2 War Story 10-1
R9: #7 Appealing Henry 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/17 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,4,5,7/3,6,7/2,5/2,3,6/1,5 = $28.80

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,6/1,5/3,4,9/2,5,9 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 5/3,5,6/2,3,5,6/1,2,3 = $36

MEET STATS: 50 - 197 / $276.20 BEST BETS: 8 - 19 / $25.80

SPOT PLAYS: 4 - 19 / $15.20

Best Bet: LIGHTS GO OUT (8th)

Spot Play: MACH CODE (7th)


Race 1

(2) SENIOR K showed little in the first leg of this series after missing a week. He likely needs a good performance here, while others do not necessarily. Expect a more aggressive steer. (4) AWESOMENESS couldn't get close to a powerful winner last time, but he still rates highly here. (7) TWOMACSONEMACH is another coming out of that race that should improve here. (5) ARTFUL BLISS raced well in the first leg and is another to consider in a race where deep Pick 5 coverage may be wise.

Race 2

(6) DEVILS ADVOCATE produced a quick final 1/4 last week, but the leader wasn't slowing at that point. She is in excellent form now and can take this group if she stays flat. (7) WINDSUN MISSILE finished ahead of the choice off a better trip, but he does rate highly in this field. (3) LEGGS MATTER has a good record and he looks ready to produce for Weller first time in his barn; using. (1) ARE YOU IN should be passing horses in the stretch to take a share.

Race 3

(2) DREAMFAIR MESA made a sensational pre-race appearance last week, then delivered with a sharp win; call to repeat. (5) DRAGON STRIKES flew home to win at a big price. He looks like the main threat. (1) THINK ON IT failed as the choice although the track wasn't kind to speed most of that night. He could do here with a bit easier trip. (4) BREAKTIME HANOVER can stick around for a slice here.

Race 4

(3) SOUTHWIND GEISHA drops to the bottom class and adds Lasix. I expect Henry will be sending her here. (6) AINSLEYNEOLLE could last longer this time after showing good speed last week. (2) THREE DREAMS has improved in each start for Cullen. She has upset possibilities here. (1) WILDCAT BEAUTY figures for a smaller share, as has been her custom most of the year.

Race 5

(1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE has some sneaky good form as he has been finishing quickly in each start despite being out of contention vs. better. He should get placed closer to the front at the start here which gives him a much better chance. (5) WAZZUP WAZZUP stopped in the lane last week on a night where many leaders couldn't seal the deal; using. (3) DARCEE N continues to peck away with fringe efforts; expect similar here. (10) UF BETTORS HANOVER will be winding up from far back and passing many of these down the lane.

Race 6

(9) KEEGAN HO couldn't quite reach the winner late last week, but that race came after a month away from the track. I'll give him the nod here returning in 7 days. (3) READY ANY TIME closes fast every week, she just needs to be more forwardly-placed to contend for the top spot. (4) SAFEKEEPING adds Lasix here which could help get her back in the winner's circle after three narrow losses. (2) HONOR ABOVE ALL raced tough to win last week, but it's hard to say if he can duplicate that effort.

Race 7

(9) MACH CODE made several moves last week and he suffered the consequences of that overexertion late in the mile. He has a good shot here if he can clear or sit the pocket early. (2) COOL ROCK continues to race well, but he is often at the mercy of the flow which can make it tough to pass them all. (5) DOMETHATAGAIN drops and figures; using in multi-race bets. (8) VEGAS ROCKS comes off a sharp effort and he is another in with a chance in a contentious dash.

Race 8

(5) LIGHTS GO OUT could bottom out this field as she gets to drop to the lowest conditioned level here. (6) YOUR MY SECRET paced a 54 3/5 back 1/2 last time and she too drops and rates highly here. (3) VELOCITY REIGN makes her second start for Weller and returns quicker this time. She should share here. (7) JUSTABIT MEAN can close for a smaller slice again.

Race 9

(6) NICKLE BAG loves this time of year and the colder it gets, the better it is for him; top call. (5) PRESCOTTS HOPE steps up off a phenomenal first up win; using. (3) MODERN LEGEND is obviously the class of this group, but he faces some sharp foes and he probably needs this race after missing close to 19 month's action. (4) AMERICAN VIRGIN should pass some of these in the final 1/4 and take a share.

Race 10

(5) TRASHYTONGUETALKER had some pace late in the mile last time vs. a tough rival. He is on the improve and he can take this with a decent trip. (3) IMKEEPNTHISGUY is another with improving form that figures here; using. (6) DAYLIGHT RUSH faces much easier and he should be the main speed threat. Toss him on your late Pick 4 tickets. (2) SIR GALAHAD was sharp in victory last week, but these look much tougher.

Race 11

(2) REEL steps up one level after making a powerful first-up move to win last week; call to repeat. (3) SHADOW MARGEAUX was just short when on the choice's cover last week; respect his improving form. (1) PAPARAZZI HANOVER is another that is in sharp current form that is hard to leave out here. (8) PANEDICTINE will be passing foes late in the mile making his first start off a claim; minor share predicted. (10) YS LOTUS takes a big drop, but the post likely will be his undoing here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 12/17 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 452 - 1287 / $2,483.10

BEST BETS: 58 - 105 / $196.30

Best Bet: SOMEWHERE IN L A (11th)

Spot Play: MATTAMERICAN (4th)


Race 1

(1) KILLER MARTINI has been good for an extended period of time and he's proven he belongs with this type; Holland can work out a winning trip from the rail. (3) LUCKY MCTRUCKY debuts for Robertson off the claim and lures Bartett off a sharp Milici trainee. (7) DALHOUSIE DAVE is the aforementioned sharp horse who will likely try to be forwardly placed again.

Race 2

(2) URBAN RENEWAL could do no better than third chasing a heavy favorite in his local debut; he can be in a better spot tonight. (5) MY MIND IS MADEUP was Bartlett's choice but is facing better; don't accept too short of a price. (3) NATIONAL DEBT has been one of the biggest disappointments in recent years; he's now in the Nick Clegg barn and will probably be geared for early speed.

Race 3

(4) UF LARRY ALLTHEWAY came back from vacation with a sharp effort at The Meadowlands and he meets nothing special here. (2) STATION THREEOHSIX was close at the wire off a live trip last week versus better; logical. (1) RANSOM DEMAND is back locally after cruising at Freehold and he draws best with Bartlett driving.

Race 4

(1) MATTAMERICAN has had some very live local efforts in the past and he returns with the best post; Dube's choice. (2) HERE WE GO AGAIN is another with quite a history at Yonkers and he fits nicely at this level but 6/5 morning line is a bit ridiculous. (5) THAT'LL BE THE REI picks up Holland, who may take a shot off the gate.

Race 5

(2) ROLLIN RING AFIRE is up in class making his third start for Milici; gelding has always had the ability and he may have more to offer. (8) FIVE CARD DRAW N has looked very good in his three starts since arriving from Australia but he's behind the eight ball tonight. (4) GUANTANAMO BAY ships in sharp for Burke.

Race 6

(3) ROLAND N ROCK has really blossomed since returning to Yonkers and his off-the-pace efforts have been superb; Harmon trainee may be as good as any in here. (1) FOILED AGAIN gapped last week in that quick mile but still paced in 1:51 2/5 off almost a month; it would be nice to see him end his 12-year-old season on a high note. (4) P H SUPERCAM was in a perfect winning spot last week but faces a tougher task tonight.

Race 7

(7) FIRST CLASS HORSE was used the lead last week and kept going and going, scoring in 1:50 3/5; why not again? (4) THE REAL ONE made up plenty of ground to be second best and the Lachance student is always sharp. (6) MACH IT SO came up short in the pocket but is back on consecutive weeks now and could be tighter.

Race 8

(1) PAPPY'S PAL took control early last out and jogged; why not again? (4) SPORTS BETTOR chased the top one as no match as the 3/5 chalk; second best again? (2) FREENEASY HANOVER was a decent second upon arrival for Burke.

Race 9

(3) CLASS SIX returns locally off a sharp score versus a bit cheaper up at Saratoga and he was racing well with better when last at Yonkers. (2) CASIMIR JITTERBUG was a solid winner last out at The Meadowlands but he did falter in his prior local start. (5) LETTUCERIPRITA A had no chance last week but his prior form was solid; consider if the price is right.

Race 10

(5) E Z NOAH has always been a hit-or-miss type but he's capable with these on his best day; hard to use but hard to toss out. (3) SECRET DELIGHT returns locally, now in the Banca barn and Bartlett drives; big threat. (4) ALLBEEF N NOBULL got buried last week and had no chance; he'll probably be more aggressively handled tonight.

Race 11

(1) SOMEWHERE IN L A lands the coveted rail in his third start for new connections and he should be looking to control the action. (2) CAVIART LUCA gets much-needed class and post relief off two no-chance efforts. (5) POLAK A could be on the scene late to land a share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (4th) Dr. Stone, 4-1
(6th) Thirstforthecup, 6-1


Charles Town (4th) Creative Mist, 9-2
(8th) Night Out, 5-1


Delta Downs (7th) Hey Hey Miss Sue, 4-1
(9th) Under Review, 9-2


Fair Grounds (3rd) Hogy, 7-2
(7th) Almasty, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Flibbertigibbet, 4-1
(9th) Alum, 3-1


Hawthorne (5th) A J’s Posse, 9-2
(6th) Frisky Whiskey, 3-1


Laurel Park (4th) Balharbour Miss, 3-1
(6th) American Progress, 5-1


Los Alamitos (3rd) Forthe Lovof Patty, 6-1
(4th) Angel on Point, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Grad Bash, 5-1
(6th) Pinot Noir, 4-1


Parx Racing (1st) Runaway Mistress, 5-1
(8th) Imperial Hint, 6-1


Penn National (5th) Inner Fire, 6-1
(6th) Ariel’s Vision, 3-1


Sunland Park (4th) Candy Heat, 7-2
(7th) Dani’s Girl, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Napa Valley Rose, 7-2
(7th) Schaddei, 6-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Brandyafterdinner, 7-2
(6th) Itsonlyme, 9-2


Turfway Park (5th) Calhoun, 3-1
(8th) War Ready, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

NFL trends for Week 15 games

— Baltimore is 1-5-1 in last seven games vs NFC teams.

— Panthers are 14-6 in last 20 games as a road dog.

— Texans are 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten divisional games.

— Vikings covered nine of last ten as a home favorite.

— New England covered nine of its last 12 games.

— Redskins are 13-4 vs spread in their last 17 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Ohio Bobcats - 12

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Golden St -13½ Over Portland

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take DELAWARE +20 (Hoops) over Seton Hall