Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 17, 2016
Your free pick for Saturday, December 17, 2016 comes in the college basketball battle between Kansas State and Colorado State. A good battle between two strong defensive teams having fine campaigns. Kansas State plays tough defense for Bruce Weber. The Under is 45-21-1 in the Wildcats last 67 non-conference games. Defensively, the Wildcats are among the national leaders, ranking 6th in scoring defense (57.8), 11th in field goal percentage defense (36.6), 36th in steals (8.4) and 39th in turnovers forced (16.3). Colorado State is 7-3-1 under the total at neutral site games. In the last Meeting K-State won 61-56 in Wichita, Kansas, and this shapes up as an all-out defensive duel.
Play Kansas State/Colorado State under the total.
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 17, 2016
Your free pick for Saturday, December 17, 2016 comes in the college basketball battle between Kansas State and Colorado State. A good battle between two strong defensive teams having fine campaigns. Kansas State plays tough defense for Bruce Weber. The Under is 45-21-1 in the Wildcats last 67 non-conference games. Defensively, the Wildcats are among the national leaders, ranking 6th in scoring defense (57.8), 11th in field goal percentage defense (36.6), 36th in steals (8.4) and 39th in turnovers forced (16.3). Colorado State is 7-3-1 under the total at neutral site games. In the last Meeting K-State won 61-56 in Wichita, Kansas, and this shapes up as an all-out defensive duel.
Play Kansas State/Colorado State under the total.
Jack Jones
Dolphins vs Jets
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Miami Dolphins -2
The Dolphins have been flying under the radar for weeks now. They have won seven of their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. This team is showing a ton of fight down the stretch as they currently sit tied with the Denver Broncos for the final wild card spot in the AFC at 8-5 on the year.
While the Dolphins have a lot to play for right now, the Jets simply do not. They pretty much packed it in in their most recent home game, an ugly 10-41 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They showed some fight last week in rallying from a 14-0 deficit to beat the 49ers in overtime, but that’s a 49ers team that has now lost 12 straight. I think that win is keeping this line lower than it should be as the Jets would be bigger dogs had they lost it.
I know Ryan Tannehill will miss a start for the first time in his career, but that’s OK because the Dolphins have one of the best backups in the business. There’s a reason Matt Moore has stuck around as a backup for most of the last decade, and it’s certainly not because he can’t play. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive last week against the Cardinals in a downpour.
Moore is better than any quarterback on the Jets’ roster in my opinion. Since they are out of playoff contention, the Jets are giving third-stringer Bryce Petty a shot down the stretch. Petty played OK against an awful 49ers defense last week, going 23-of-35 for 257 yards with an interception and zero touchdowns. But he didn't play well against a bad Colts defense the week before, and this Dolphins' defense is much better than both the Colts and 49ers.
Most teams have a good home-field advantage, but the Jets aren’t one of them. The fans won’t support them down the stretch, so actually playing at home is a disadvantage for them. This will feel like a home game for the Dolphins. The Jets laid an egg in their last home game on Monday Night Football against the Colts, and they are now just 1-5 at home this season.
The road team has actually dominated this series as well, furthering the notion that home field means nothing. The road team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings. The road team is also 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Aside from the injury to Tannehill, the Dolphins are very healthy. The same cannot be said for the Jets. They had 12 players listed as did not participate or as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Five starters did not participate in RB Matt Forte, RT Brent Qvale, LB Lorenzo Mauldin, NT Steve McLendon and CB Buster Skrine. The top two receivers in Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa were limited participants. Not to mention, the Jets are without their glue at center in Nick Mangold.
The good news for Moore is that he can hand the ball off to Jay Ajayi and have success as the Dolphins average 4.5 yards per carry this season. The Jets have surrendered an average of 148 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. They gave up a whopping 248 yards on the ground to the 49ers last week and were fortunate to win.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) – with a poor first half defense – 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Dolphins Saturday.
Dolphins vs Jets
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Miami Dolphins -2
The Dolphins have been flying under the radar for weeks now. They have won seven of their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. This team is showing a ton of fight down the stretch as they currently sit tied with the Denver Broncos for the final wild card spot in the AFC at 8-5 on the year.
While the Dolphins have a lot to play for right now, the Jets simply do not. They pretty much packed it in in their most recent home game, an ugly 10-41 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They showed some fight last week in rallying from a 14-0 deficit to beat the 49ers in overtime, but that’s a 49ers team that has now lost 12 straight. I think that win is keeping this line lower than it should be as the Jets would be bigger dogs had they lost it.
I know Ryan Tannehill will miss a start for the first time in his career, but that’s OK because the Dolphins have one of the best backups in the business. There’s a reason Matt Moore has stuck around as a backup for most of the last decade, and it’s certainly not because he can’t play. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive last week against the Cardinals in a downpour.
Moore is better than any quarterback on the Jets’ roster in my opinion. Since they are out of playoff contention, the Jets are giving third-stringer Bryce Petty a shot down the stretch. Petty played OK against an awful 49ers defense last week, going 23-of-35 for 257 yards with an interception and zero touchdowns. But he didn't play well against a bad Colts defense the week before, and this Dolphins' defense is much better than both the Colts and 49ers.
Most teams have a good home-field advantage, but the Jets aren’t one of them. The fans won’t support them down the stretch, so actually playing at home is a disadvantage for them. This will feel like a home game for the Dolphins. The Jets laid an egg in their last home game on Monday Night Football against the Colts, and they are now just 1-5 at home this season.
The road team has actually dominated this series as well, furthering the notion that home field means nothing. The road team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings. The road team is also 13-6-1 ATS in the last 20 meetings.
Aside from the injury to Tannehill, the Dolphins are very healthy. The same cannot be said for the Jets. They had 12 players listed as did not participate or as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Five starters did not participate in RB Matt Forte, RT Brent Qvale, LB Lorenzo Mauldin, NT Steve McLendon and CB Buster Skrine. The top two receivers in Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa were limited participants. Not to mention, the Jets are without their glue at center in Nick Mangold.
The good news for Moore is that he can hand the ball off to Jay Ajayi and have success as the Dolphins average 4.5 yards per carry this season. The Jets have surrendered an average of 148 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. They gave up a whopping 248 yards on the ground to the 49ers last week and were fortunate to win.
Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY JETS) – with a poor first half defense – 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Dolphins Saturday.
Jimmy Boyd
Appalachian State vs Toledo
Free Pick Toledo Pick'em
I believe this Rockets team is getting overlooked due to all the attention that Western Michigan has got, who is in the same division as Toledo and needed to beat them at home in their final game just to make the MAC Championship Game. Appalachian State on the other hand is a team that most are familiar with due to their impressive showing against Tennessee on the road early in the season in a nationally televised game. I think it has the Mountaineers getting way to much respect in a game that I think they should be at least a 3-point dog.
There's a couple of key things we can point to here that certainly favor Toledo. Appalachian State finished tied with Arkansas State on top the Sun Belt standings at 7-1. The lone loss was at Troy, who Arkansas State crushed 35-3, so there's reason to believe those are two evenly matched teams (didn't play each other). Toledo played Arkansas State and beat them 31-10 on the road, outgaining the Red Wolves 556 to 266. Both teams also played at Akron and won. However, Appalachian State squeaked out a 45-38 win, while the Rockets destroyed the Zips 48-17.
Toledo's offense can beat you with both the run and the pass, which I believe is huge, as a balanced attack is difficult to stop regardless of how much time you have to prepare. When Appalachian State's defense struggled this season, it was against teams who could spread it out and attack them through the air. Toledo QB Logan Woodside finished the regular season completing 69.1% of his attempts with 43 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. They also have a dynamic back in Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 1,355 yards.
Offensively, the Mountaineers are one-dimensional, which I think is much easier to prepare for in bowl games. App St ranked 13th in rushing (247.1 ypg), compared to 104th in passing (184.0 ypg). If they fall behind at all in this game, they could be in serious trouble, as you have to be able to make plays in the passing game to play catch up. I have a lot more confidence in the Rockets offense showing up, making them an easy play at a pick'em. Take Toledo!
Appalachian State vs Toledo
Free Pick Toledo Pick'em
I believe this Rockets team is getting overlooked due to all the attention that Western Michigan has got, who is in the same division as Toledo and needed to beat them at home in their final game just to make the MAC Championship Game. Appalachian State on the other hand is a team that most are familiar with due to their impressive showing against Tennessee on the road early in the season in a nationally televised game. I think it has the Mountaineers getting way to much respect in a game that I think they should be at least a 3-point dog.
There's a couple of key things we can point to here that certainly favor Toledo. Appalachian State finished tied with Arkansas State on top the Sun Belt standings at 7-1. The lone loss was at Troy, who Arkansas State crushed 35-3, so there's reason to believe those are two evenly matched teams (didn't play each other). Toledo played Arkansas State and beat them 31-10 on the road, outgaining the Red Wolves 556 to 266. Both teams also played at Akron and won. However, Appalachian State squeaked out a 45-38 win, while the Rockets destroyed the Zips 48-17.
Toledo's offense can beat you with both the run and the pass, which I believe is huge, as a balanced attack is difficult to stop regardless of how much time you have to prepare. When Appalachian State's defense struggled this season, it was against teams who could spread it out and attack them through the air. Toledo QB Logan Woodside finished the regular season completing 69.1% of his attempts with 43 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. They also have a dynamic back in Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 1,355 yards.
Offensively, the Mountaineers are one-dimensional, which I think is much easier to prepare for in bowl games. App St ranked 13th in rushing (247.1 ypg), compared to 104th in passing (184.0 ypg). If they fall behind at all in this game, they could be in serious trouble, as you have to be able to make plays in the passing game to play catch up. I have a lot more confidence in the Rockets offense showing up, making them an easy play at a pick'em. Take Toledo!
Scott Spreitzer
Dayton vs Northwestern
Bonus Play Northwestern
I'm backing Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats and Dayton Flyers will battle it out at United Center in Chicago tonight. While the number is short, we believe the wrong team was installed as the favorite. Three Wildcats are averaging more than 12 ppg, and while Dererk Pardon is out with a hand injury, Chris Collins' troops do good job of rebounding by committee. Scottie Lindsey and Bryant McIntosh combine for about 28 ppg and both create shots for others, while taking care of the "rock." The two have combined for 88 assists and just 40 turnovers in 10 games and will present a solid Dayton backcourt with defensive issues. Both teams enter on 5-game winning streaks, but we believe Northwestern will leave with the winning streak intact, while extending their spread run to 7-1. I'm backing Northwestern on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Dayton vs Northwestern
Bonus Play Northwestern
I'm backing Northwestern on Saturday. The Wildcats and Dayton Flyers will battle it out at United Center in Chicago tonight. While the number is short, we believe the wrong team was installed as the favorite. Three Wildcats are averaging more than 12 ppg, and while Dererk Pardon is out with a hand injury, Chris Collins' troops do good job of rebounding by committee. Scottie Lindsey and Bryant McIntosh combine for about 28 ppg and both create shots for others, while taking care of the "rock." The two have combined for 88 assists and just 40 turnovers in 10 games and will present a solid Dayton backcourt with defensive issues. Both teams enter on 5-game winning streaks, but we believe Northwestern will leave with the winning streak intact, while extending their spread run to 7-1. I'm backing Northwestern on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
