Saturday 11/28/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kings (6-11) at Warriors (17-0)

Date: November 28, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

Despite the ugly state Sacramento was in three weeks ago, the nine-point home loss it had against Golden State is looking better ever day. The Warriors are beating teams by roughly as many points as their second-leading scorer is putting up, and he finished 12th in the MVP vote last season.

The Kings have since recovered some, but it'll take a whole lot more to be the ones to end the Warriors' NBA-record start. That's particularly true since things are moving from the capital to the bay this time around and it's more likely to be Sacramento which is handicapped a key player even if it seems on paper the Warriors could spare Klay Thompson the trouble.

The teams meet for a second time Saturday night with the Warriors eying 18-0 as well as a 10th straight victory in the series.

The Warriors (17-0) have swept the last two season series with their closest NBA neighbor and started this one with a 103-94 win on Nov. 7. The nine straight wins have come by an average of 16.9 points, and the four played in Oakland have been by 22.2.

But those aren't necessarily numbers to be ashamed of against this season's team. The single-digit loss was one of five the league has against the Warriors thus far and one Phoenix would likely welcome after Golden State thudded them 135-116 Friday.

Golden State went 22 of 38 from 3-point range - establishing yet another franchise record and falling one shy of the NBA record for single-game 3s - and cruised despite committing a season-high 24 turnovers.

"We have an edge," Steph Curry said. "We love the feeling of winning and our confidence is high right now. That's the only thing that motivates us."

Calling it merely an edge might be underselling it. The Warriors are 100-20 since the start of last season including the postseason, and no other team has yet reached 80 in that time. The dominance they're showing this season points toward the disparity only growing. Their wins this season are coming by an average of 15.8 points per game and 17.5 at home. Thompson is averaging 16.1 and 15.8 at home.

Thompson hasn't scored or shot as much this season, likely in part because of his star teammate. Curry had 41 points on 11-of-20 shooting and 9 of 16 from 3-point range with eight assists, and the reigning MVP needed just 31 minutes to do so. It was already his fifth game of at least 40 points, which is something he entered the season having done nine times. The rest of the NBA has done it 14 times this season, among them Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins - just not recently.

Cousins has missed two games with a lower-back strain, including Friday's 101-91 home loss to Minnesota, as the Kings fell to 1-6 without him. Even so, the Kings (6-11) have won five of nine since a 1-7 start that had Cousins screaming at coach George Karl.

Against the Timberwolves, it didn't help that Rudy Gay had his worst game of the season, scoring a season-low two points on 1-of-13 shooting. It gets worse: It was Gay's fewest points since he was shut out on Jan. 23 - by Golden State. It gets worse: Thompson had 52 that night.

Over the winning streak in the series, the shooting guard has scored 24.7 points and shot 53.1 percent while hitting 51.5 percent from 3-point range, so it might be his turn for a night in the spotlight considering Curry's pedestrian 19.7 points in the same span.

And then there's Sacramento's recent form on the defensive end. The Kings have allowed their last three opponents to score 115.3 per game on 48.7 percent.

"I felt like we had no sense of urgency defensively," Omri Casspi said of the Timberwolves. "They got whatever they wanted and we couldn't get stops."

That's how they felt about Minnesota - a .500 team that went 16-66 last season. Here come the defending NBA champions, looking to go 18-0.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Saturday, November 28 2015 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews - 11/27/2015

I know the Lakers' Kobe Bryant is one of the most competitive, proud players not just in the NBA currently but in league history. He's just like Michael Jordan in that regard. Thus, Kobe would never quit in the middle of his last season, but perhaps he should have during the Thanksgiving league-wide day off. Kobe is the worst player in the NBA right now, and it's not close. Sure, he's averaging a team-best 15.2 points per game, but he's last in overall field-goal percentage (.311) and 3-point percentage (.195) while being the NBA's highest-paid player. Yet he's still playing a bit more than 30 minutes a game. Fans come to see Bryant, but he needs to come off the bench or cut those minutes in half and cede playing time to guys who actually have a future in this league.


Raptors at Wizards (pick'em, 207)

Washington was in Boston on Friday. Toronto brings a three-game winning streak into this one, last beating visiting Cleveland 103-99 on Wednesday behind 27 points from Kyle Lowry. Over the last 10 games Lowry ranks first among Eastern Conference guards in averaging 21.6 points per game. Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have recorded six games this season where both players scored at least 20 points, including vs. the Cavs. First meeting of the season between the teams with perhaps the East's best backcourts. Toronto has won seven of the last eight regular-season meetings with Washington, including a 120-116 overtime victory Jan. 31 at Verizon Center. They met in the first round of last year's playoffs and, proving regular-season matchups mean little, the Wizards swept. Only one game was particularly close.

Key trends: The Raptors are 0-5 against the spread in their past five meetings. The "over/under" is 8-2-1 in Washington's past 11 overall.

Early lean: Wizards and over.

Nets at Cavaliers (-11, 203)

Cleveland was on Charlotte on Friday, likely again without Mo Williams and Timofey Mozgov. Brooklyn lost 110-99 in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Brook Lopez scored 26 points for the Nets, who had their three-game winning streak in Oklahoma City snapped. The Nets dominated the Thunder 64-44 in the paint (marking a season-high for the Nets in point in the paint) but were killed on the perimeter. Cleveland won three of four over Brooklyn last year but lost the last meeting 106-98 on the road. The Nets have dropped four straight in Cleveland.

Key trends: The home team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The over is 6-0 in Cleveland's past six at home.

Early lean: Normally I'd take double-digit points against a team in the second of a back-to-back, but Cavs are crushing people at home. Take them and over.

Nuggets at Mavericks (-9, 209.5)

This one nationally televised on NBA TV. Denver is off a likely loss Friday at home to San Antonio with Kenneth Faried out again for the Nugs. Dallas lost to the Spurs 88-83 in San Antonio on Wednesday, the Mavs' third straight defeat. Chandler Parson sat that one out for Dallas as it was the second of a back-to-back but will be back in there Saturday. Reserve guard J.J. Barea did not return after spraining his right ankle in the fourth quarter, and he's going to miss some time. This is the first meeting of 2015-16 between Denver and Dallas. The Mavs took the final two of the three-game series last year. The Mavericks have won two straight and 26 of the last 36 regular-season matchups in Dallas

Key trends: The home team has covered four of the past five meetings. The over is 4-1 in those five.

Early lean: Mavericks and over.

Hawks at Spurs (-7, 196)

Second of a back-to-back for both as Atlanta was in Memphis on Friday -- Hawks got Kent Bazemore back -- and San Antonio in Denver. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich rested Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili on Friday, so both should play here. In July, the Spurs traded center Tiago Splitter to Atlanta to open up cap room to help sign LaMarcus Aldridge. Atlanta sent the draft rights to Georgios Printezis (who??) and a future second-round pick to San Antonio. Splitter wasn't likely to play Friday and thus probably won't face his former teammates. And of course Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer was a long-time Spurs assistant. San Antonio was 2-0 vs. Atlanta last year. The Spurs have won nine straight overall in the series and a whopping 17 in a row at home.

Key trends: The Spurs have covered seven straight in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 4-1 in Atlanta's past five in the second of a back-to-back.

Early lean: Spurs and under.

Pelicans at Jazz (-6.5, 197.5)

New Orleans off a Friday game at the Clippers. Utah won 102-91 at the Clippers on Wednesday to end a 13-game losing streak in that series. It was only the second time this season that the Jazz had triple-digit points. Gordon Hayward led the way with 33 points. Guard Trey Burke left near the end of the first quarter with back spasms and didn't return. With a few days off, he should be OK for this one. First meeting between Pelicans and Jazz. New Orleans won two of three last season, including the lone game in Utah. Hayward averaged 26.7 points.

Key trends: New Orleans has covered just once in the past eight meetings. The under is 5-0 in Utah's past five vs. the West.

Early lean: Jazz and under.

Lakers at Trail Blazers (-8.5, 203)

L.A. was embarrassed in Golden State on Tuesday, 111-77. So much for putting up a fight to stop the Warriors from starting a record 16-0. Kobe tied the worst shooting game of his career in a game where he had at least one basket by going 1-for-14 for four points. He became the first player in the NBA this year with four points or fewer while taking at least 14 shots. Portland had a two-game winning streak end in a 93-88 home loss to Chicago on Tuesday. The Blazers won at the Lakers 107-93 last Sunday behind 30 points from Damian Lillard. They have now won five straight in the series -- past four by double-digits -- for the first time since winning eight in a row from 1993-95.

Key trends: The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is 5-0 in the past five.

Early lean: Blazers and under.

Kings at Warriors (TBA)

Sacramento hosted Minnesota on Friday and Golden State was in Phoenix. Potential trap game here for the Warriors? In my Friday Opening Line Report story, I mentioned I thought the Suns could win that game. Kings have no shot whatsoever here if DeMarcus Cousins doesn't play, and he was questionable for Friday. Golden State has won nine straight over Sacramento, the team's longest winning streak against the Kings since the Philadelphia Warriors won 13 straight from 1959-60. Golden State won all four meetings last season by an average of 22.0 points. You may remember Klay Thompson had an NBA-record 37 points in one quarter of a Jan. 23 win.

Key trends: The Kings are 1-6 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 8-3 in the past 11.

Early lean: Wait on Cousins and what Warriors do Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Toronto won last three games, by 11-11-4 points (3-2AF).
-- Cavaliers won four of last five games (5-3HF).
-- Spurs won ten of their last eleven games (5-2HF).
-- Pelicans won three of last four games (3-6AU).
-- 17-0 Golden State covered its last five games.

Cold teams
-- Washington lost last three games, by 17-14-33 points (1-1HU).
-- Nets lost five of their last seven games (5-1 last six AU).
-- Hawks lost four of last five road games (2-1AU).
-- Denver lost its last five games (4-2AU). Dallas lost its last three games (3-1HF).
-- Utah lost five of its last eight games (1-3HF).
-- Lakers lost eight of their last nine games (3-5AU). Portland lost eight of its last ten games (1-2HF).
-- Kings lost four of their last six games (4-3AU).

Series records
-- Wizards won their last four games with Toronto.
-- Cavaliers won four of last five games with Brooklyn.
-- Spurs won their last nine games with Atlanta.
-- Mavericks won three of last four games with Denver.
-- Pelicans won four of last six games with Utah.
-- Lakers lost their last six games with Portland.
-- Warriors won last nine games with Sacramento, covering six of last seven.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under.
-- Nine of last eleven Cleveland games went over.
-- Seven of last eight San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Dallas-Denver games went over.
-- Last four Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Last five Laker-Portland games stayed under total.
-- Four of last six Warrior games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Colonials (6-0) at Bearcats (6-0)

Date: November 28, 2015 2:30 PM EDT

It might not have been as evident over its first five games because of weak competition, but Cincinnati's season has been a slow slide from a shooting standpoint.

The 24th-ranked Bearcats have seen their field-goal percentage dip in each game, and their first loss seems likely if it continues Saturday against George Washington in the championship game of the Barclays Center Classic in Brooklyn.

Cincinnati (6-0) got by without any trouble through five games, averaging 89.8 points and a winning margin of 36.8 while shooting 49.0 percent, including 40.7 from 3-point range. Collectively, things looked solid.

In Friday's semifinals, Cincinnati squeaked by Nebraska with a 65-61 win despite shooting 38.9 percent. The downward trend, however, continued after a 40.7 percent mark in Tuesday's 64-49 win over Southeastern Louisiana. The number has fallen in each game since the Bearcats shot 61.0 percent in a 97-72 opening win over Western Carolina on Nov. 13.

They knocked off the Cornhuskers by outrebounding them 41-31, and that entire edge came on the offensive glass (18-8). The Bearcats are averaging a 43.0-31.3 rebounding advantage, including a plus-4.3 mark on the offensive end.

"Our big guys started to assert themselves," coach Mick Cronin said. "We're not very good if those guys can't score inside for us, and they did in the second half."

Octavius Ellis had seven of those offensive rebounds against Nebraska, finishing with 12 points and nine boards, and fellow forward Shaq Thomas scored 14.

Troy Caupain scored a team-high 17 and went 4 of 8 from 3-point range, and the sophomore guard is averaging 16.0 points in the last two games while going 5 of 11 in each after attempting a total of 16 shots in the team's first four.

Caupain spoke of what the team needs from Ellis to be successful.

"(He) understands that nobody can stop him with his length and his arms," Caupain said. "And the way he jumps, (Ellis) can be a wonderful player. At 6-10, when he plays 6-6, it's hard for him to score. When he plays with his head above the rim and his arms, he can score."

Turnovers have also played into it with opponents averaging 18.8 to Cincinnati's 11.7, and Cronin's team hasn't committed more than 11 in a game since the opener.

While Cincinnati has two starts of at least 7-0 in the previous three seasons, the Colonials are after their first since beginning an all-time best 8-0 in 2005-06 before finishing 27-3. The Bearcats have won five straight and 12 of 13 all-time meetings.

George Washington has also lost 20 of its last 23 against the Top 25, though it began this season with a 73-68 home win over then-No. 6 Virginia on Nov. 16.

The veteran Colonials advanced to the championship with Friday's 73-70 win over Tennessee, holding on after building a 15-point second-half lead. They hit 3 of 15 from 3-point range and are shooting just 27.9 percent from outside the arc, so they too are relying on the interior and the occasional outside shot from swingman Patricio Garino.

The 6-foot-6 senior is coming off his worst game - 12 points on 4-of-11 shooting - but he's averaging 16.5 per game and has hit 9 of 13 from 3-point range.

Tyler Cavanaugh had 18 points, and fellow forward Kevin Larsen added 15. Cavanaugh is averaging 15.3 this season - up from 8.8 in 2014-15 - and Larsen is at 16.0 on 65.5 percent shooting in his last three.

"He has been what we needed," coach Mike Lonergan said of Cavanaugh. "... He is having a great season."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Fighting Illini (3-3) at Cyclones (4-0)

Date: November 28, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Ten 3-pointers through the first two games wasn't exactly what Iowa State envisioned for an offense expected to be one of the best in the country from deep.

Twenty seven in the last two is more like it.

The fourth-ranked Cyclones have found their range at the Emerald Coast Classic and will look to finish off a championship run Saturday night when they meet Illinois in Niceville, Florida.

Iowa State (4-0) will try to win its opening five games for the fourth time in seven seasons, this time under first-year coach Steve Prohm. The Cyclones' sharp shooting displayed in the last two victories would help.

They made 27 of 50 3-pointers in consecutive wins of 83-63 in a non-bracket game over Chattanooga and 99-77 over Virginia Tech. They made 13 of 21 from long range in Friday's semifinal win over the Hokies, while all seven players that attempted a 3 made at least one.

Iowa State raised its 3-point percentage in the last two games to 54.0, just above its overall mark of 53.8. All five starters scored in double figures Friday.

'They were really locked in and flying around," Prohm said. "These guys have been real good."

Opponents have made 11 or more 3-pointers against Illinois (3-3) four times. The Illini surrendered 41.3-percent shooting from deep entering Friday's other semifinal, but they held UAB to 5 for 23 during a 72-58 win.

While long-range shooting is a big part of Iowa State's offense, senior forward Jameel McKay has been a force closer to the basket. McKay converted on 10 of 16 shots for a game-high 23 points against Virginia Tech while grabbing eight rebounds. He averages 16.0 points and 11.5 rebounds and has made 63.8 percent of his shots.

McKay - who poured in a career-high 25 points in last week's 106-64 win over Chicago State, which Illinois needed a buzzer beater to escape - scored 15 in the first half against Virginia Tech with seven coming during a 22-4 run.

'It all started with Jameel," said Georges Niang, who had 14 points, seven rebounds and six assists. "He was making tough plays at the rim which lead to kick outs and 3s. Once we got our transition going there was really no stopping us from there.'

Abdel Nader added 16 points and 11 rebounds, while Monte Morris had 14 points and seven assists.

Iowa State missed out on a rematch with the team that knocked it out of the first round of the NCAA Tournament when Illinois cruised past the Blazers on the other side of the bracket.

Kendrick Nunn missed Illinois' first five games after undergoing thumb surgery in October, but he returned in a big way with 18 points off the bench in 31 minutes. Nunn made 3 of 5 3-pointers and grabbed five rebounds.

Malcolm Hill scored six of his 12 points during a decisive 14-3 run to start the second half.

Illinois also returned Loren Black and Jaylon Tate to the floor. Black, who scored 12 points, had played limited minutes in four of the first five games while dealing with knee soreness after surgery last month to repair a torn meniscus. Tate missed the previous four games with an open dislocation on his pinkie finger.

'In most cases our guys have been able to come back earlier than what has predicted,' coach John Groce said. 'We really had a lot of depth tonight and everyone was able to make a contribution.'

Illinois has lost five straight to top-5 teams after beating No. 1 Indiana in February 2013.

'Any time you play a ranked team, the rankings mean so much. It's going to be really exciting to play a team like that," junior center Maverick Morgan said. "We're going to come in and try to do the same thing we always do.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Vikings (2-3) at Terrapins (5-0)

Date: November 28, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

Maryland has gotten a couple of days to recover from its successful trip out of the country and has only a couple more before its most significant nonconference game of the season.

In between, the second-ranked Terrapins will tune up for that showdown Saturday night at home against Cleveland State.

After needing second-half comebacks in its previous three games, Maryland (5-0) dominated Rhode Island in an 86-63 win Wednesday to take the Cancun Challenge title. Tournament MVP Melo Trimble had 17 points, hitting all seven of his field-goal attempts, and Rasheed Sulaimon also scored 17 while missing one of his seven.

The Terps shot a season-best 60.0 percent and went 10 of 17 from 3-point range after previously hitting just 30.1 percent of their 3s. They held the Rams to 33.9 percent shooting and 2 for 15 from beyond the arc.

"We beat a really good team handily, one that is well-coached. What we do care about is, we're getting better," coach Mark Turgeon said. "We had to accept that just because you are ranked high doesn't mean you will win every game easily.

"We're going through a process we haven't gone through before. We're getting deeper as a team, dialing in - a lot of things are headed in the right direction."

Turgeon's team will try to build on that effort ahead of a trip to No. 9 North Carolina on Tuesday as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. The Terps have lost the previous eight matchups with their former ACC rival.

First, Maryland will try to win its 29th consecutive home game against an unranked team when it faces the Vikings (2-3).

Cleveland State is also playing its first game since traveling to Cancun. It split two contests there and lost 77-66 to South Dakota State on Wednesday in the Mayan Division championship.

The Vikings are one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 56.6 points on 35.2 percent shooting and connecting at 25.6 from 3-point range. A 39.0-percent shooting performance against the Jackrabbits was their second-best this season.

Kenny Carpenter, averaging 5.6 points, had a career-high 17 in that game and matched another personal mark with seven rebounds. The Vikings' leading scorer, Demonte Flannigan (10.2 ppg), has totaled 18 points in his last three games while missing 17 of 23 shots.

Freshman guard Rob Edwards is their only other player averaging in double figures (10.0). He had seven points Wednesday after totaling 33 in his prior two contests.

The Terps have four players averaging at least 12 points, led by Trimble with 16.2 per game.

Maryland is Cleveland State's highest-ranked opponent since a 90-56 loss to No. 1 Cincinnati on Nov. 26, 1999. The Vikings have lost 10 of their last 11 matchups against Top 25 teams and claimed that lone win at No. 7 Vanderbilt on Nov. 13, 2011.

Maryland won 95-84 in its only other game against Cleveland State on Dec. 5, 1984.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Saturday's games..........

Valparaiso beat Ball State last two years by 19-3 points; Crusaders have all five starters back from LY, are 6-1 vs #23 schedule in country, with wins at URI/Oregon State- they lost by 6 at Oregon. Ball State is 4-2 vs #327 schedule- they lost 1 at Bradley, 8 at E. Kentucky. Horizon road favorites are 3-0 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 5-9 against the spread.

Texas Tech won two of three games in Puerto Rico, beating Miss State, Minnesota; Red Raiders are starting three sophs they're shooting 26.4% from arc. Hawai'i is on mainland for first time ths year; they're 4-0, with best win over #136 Nevada by a point. Big X home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 8-5 against the spread.

Hofstra lost two of three in Virgin Islands tourney, but they did upset Florida State; Pride isn't very deep, but they start three seniors- they are shooting 41.9% from arc in five games. St Bonaventure lost at Syracuse by 13 in between three wins over stiffs; Bonnies start two sophs and one frosh. A-14 favorites are 10-13 vs spread; CAA underdogs are 12-7.

VCU won four of last five games with Old Dominion, losing 73-67 LY on road; Rams are 3-2 under new coach Wade, losing to pair of top 40 teams, beating three stiffs. VCU is forcing turnovers 27.1% of time (#5). ODU scored 51.5 ppg in losing pair of games at Mohegan Sun LW by 22-2.
A-14 home favorites are 6-8 vs spread; C-USA road underdogs are 9-11.

Georgia turned ball over 21.9% of time in 2-1 start; they lost 92-90 in OT to Chattanooga, then won by 11-3 points while scoring 55.5 pp in wins over Murray State/High Point. Dawgs were up 41-22 at half in 65-47 win over Seton Hall LY- Pirates were 3-20 from arc. Seton Hall is 4-1 after winning two of three in Charleston, including win over SEC's Ole Miss.

Nevada is 4-1 with only loss by point at Hawai'i; their last three games were decided by total of 7 points. Wolf Pack lost 65-55 to Fullerton at home LY, but they have #20 eFG% defense this year under Musselman, a former NBA coach. Fullerton is off to 3-1 start; three of the four were on road. Titans are shooting 42.7% from the arc.

Toledo avenged an earlier loss to Loyola Chi last nite; Rockets used three starters 30+ minutes, outscored Ramblers 23-8 on foul line. Toledo starts two frosh and a soph (#307 in experience) but they've protected ball well so far. Middle Tennessee is 4-1 with only loss at Murray State by 11 in opener. Blue Raiders shot only 55.9% from line in their first four games.

Pacific has been missing three players due to NCAA investigation; Tigers are 0-3 vs D-I teams, losing last two games by total of four points- their eFG% is #302 in country. Eastern Washington is 1-2 vs D-I teams, with 18-point loss at Miss State and split with Seattle; Eagles take ton of 3's- they're 0-2 on road. Big Sky underdogs are 9-12 against the spread.

Canisius is 3-8 in last 11 games with Buffalo, losing by 15 to Bulls LY; Griffins are 2-2 this year, scoring 85.5 ppg- they're rebounding 40.1% of their own misses. Buffalo has new coach after Hurley bolted to Arizona State; Bulls are 2-2 vs D-I teams, despite 41.1 eFG% (#331). MAC home favorites are 6-4 vs spread. MAAC road underdogs are 7-8 vs spread.

East Tennessee State upset Georgia Tech, lost to Charleston Southern- typical erly season erratic play. Buccaneers are experienced team that has played lousy defense so far, despite playing at slow pace. UNCW has a coach from Pitino tree; they're playing fast, forcing turnovers on 24.4% of possessions during 3-0 start, scoring 79 ppg in two D-I games.

Manhattan had only five scholarship players for last game, comeback win over George Mason- Jaspers trailed by 16 in second half, won 69-67 in a game where they used only one sub whole game. Manhattan won three of last four games with Fordham. Rams are forcing turnovers 23.5% of time in 2-1 start vs D-I teams; they scored 84.5 ppg in pair of home wins.

Western Illinois won as 26-point underdogs at Wisconsin two weeks ago; Leathernecks scored 78.7 ppg in three D-I wins- they also have couple of non-D-I wins. Summit League teams are 29-7 vs spread this month, 17-5 as underdogs. Creighton scored 91 ppg in winning couple of games in Las Vegas earlier this week- they're shooting 59.8% inside the arc so far.

Wyoming lost 83-82 to Montana State on semi-neutral court in Billings six days ago, despite making 12-25 on arc. Adams scored 36, no one else had more than 9 points for Cowboys. Bobcats also hit 12-25 on the arc; State lost only true road game by 11 at Hawai'i. Wyoming had a win on Wednesday; State hasn't played since the game in Billings Sunday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Don't dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

The FAU Owls nearly put their program on the map and shook up the college football power rankings but missed out on a massive win over Florida, losing to the Gators 20-14 in overtime as 28.5-point road underdogs in Gainesville Saturday. The Owls battled back in the second half to force the extra frame but couldn’t keep pace with their SEC opponent in crunch time.

Florida Atlantic now must wipe away the tears for a C-USA showdown with Old Dominion Saturday. The Monarchs opened as 4.5-point underdogs but have watched that spread come down a half a point since post. Old Dominion seems like a live home dog against a two-win FAU team coming off a crushing defeat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 14
By Chris David

Week 13 Recap

Favorites produced a 5-4-1 record last week but bettors playing the four underdogs were able to take advantage of generous returns. The upsets started Saturday morning as Stoke City (+485) knocked off Southampton 1-0 and West Bromwich Albion (+525) held off Arsenal at home.

Later that day, Liverpool (+380) put forth its best effort of the season as it opened a quick 3-0 lead against Manchester City on the road and held on for a 4-1 victory. The week concluded Monday with Sunderland (+475) blanking Crystal Palace 1-0 at Selhurst Park. Despite that game going to the low side, the ‘over’ went 6-3-1 in Week 13.

Through 13 weeks, favorites are 61-35 with 34 draws while the ‘over’ is 65-61-4.

Champions-Europa Recap

Six clubs could be fatigued this weekend after playing in Champions and Europa games this week. On Tuesday, both Chelsea and Arsenal looked sharp as the pair posted 4-0 and 3-0 victories respectively. The Manchester clubs couldn’t keep the momentum going Wednesday as United drew 0-0 at home to PSV Eindhoven and City dropped a 1-0 decision at Juventus. Thursday’s Europa League action watched Liverpool (2-1) and Tottenham (1-0) advance to the knockout stage of the event with one-goal wins.

Top 4

Great week of action on tap with quality matchups on tap for both Saturday and Sunday.

Southampton at Manchester City (Saturday, NBCSN, 10:00 a.m. ET)

Bettors looking to back City (-190) in this game could be walking into a trap. Manchester has dropped two straight and appears to be going through another mini slump. Southampton (+525) isn’t considered an elite team but it hasn’t lost on the road (4-2-0) and it’s currently the best defensive club away from home, only conceding four goals. City does lead the league in home goals (20) but it only has to show for three in its last three league games.

City posted a pair of shutout victories (3-0, 2-0) against Southampton last season and its won six straight at home in this series. The last win for the Saints at Ethiad Stadium came in the 2003-04 season.

The total is listed at 2 ½ and shaded to the ‘over’ (-145). City’s defense won’t have goalkeeper Joe Hart (hamstring) or center back Vincent Kompany (calf) available but David Silva is expected to be fit.

Manchester United at Leicester City (Saturday, NBC, 12:30 p.m. ET)

First place if the Premier League will be on the line Saturday as Leicester City (+215) and Manchester United (+130) square off from King Power Stadium.

In early August, the Foxes has odds listed as high as 2000/1 (Bet $100 to win $200,000) to win this year’s EPL title and that number has now shrunk to 80/1 (Bet $100 to win $8,000).

Is Leicester City’s start (8-4-1) a fluke or should bettors expect the club to remain consistent for the next 25 weeks? VegasInsider.com soccer expert Toby Maxtone-Smith offered up his thoughts. “In their next six fixtures Leicester play Man United, Swansea, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Man City, so I'd expect them to regress,” said Maxtone-Smith. “Nevertheless none of those teams are in any way unbeatable, and Leicester are supremely confident at the moment. I'd expect them to finish around sixth or seventh, but even that would be an incredible achievement. Great to see too as they're such a likeable team.”

Leicester’s only loss in EPL action this season did come at home and it was against a Top 4 club in Arsenal, who lit up the Foxes with a 5-2 decision. Manchester was humbled by the Gunners as well, suffering a 3-0 road decision on Oct .4 but has come away with points (2-1-0) in each of its last three trips as visitors.

The pair split both games last season and bettors were treated an entertaining game at King Power Stadium as Leicester rallied from a 3-1 deficit to beat Manchester 5-4.

The ‘over’ cashed in both games and the total for Sunday is listed at 2 ½ goals. Leicester has seen at least three or more combined goals in 10 of their 13 EPL league games. However, six of United’s 13 outcomes have had two or less combined goals scored.

Chelsea at Tottenham (Sunday, USA, 7:00 a.m. ET)

Tottenham (+145) has shown an incredible amount of consistency this season and its form is just one reason why it’s listed as home favorites over Chelsea (+190) this season. Since losing 1-0 at Manchester United in Week 1, the Spurs haven’t suffered a loss and they enter this game with three wins in their last four games. At home, Tottenham hasn’t dropped three points this season (4-3-0) in seven games while outscoring teams 14-5 during this span.

Chelsea certainly hasn’t looked like the defending champions but Jose Mourinho’s team is still dangerous and has won three of four in all competitions. The defense has only allowed two goals over this span, which is a major upgrade since its surrendered 23 in EPL play this season. The Blues have only managed to secure four points (1-1-4) in six road battles and they’ve nearly been doubled-up (13-7) in goal differential.

The home side has captured three straight in this series. Last season, Tottenham outlasted Chelsea 5-3 in a wild shootout from White Hart Lane while the Blues posted a 3-0 victory at Stamford Bridge.

Total players have seen the ‘over’ cash in three straight and six of the last seven head-to-head encounters between the pair. Surprisingly, the total on this game is 2 ½ and it’s shaded slightly to the ‘under’ (-115).

Arsenal at Norwich City (Sunday, 11:15 a.m. ET)

Not surprisingly, Arsenal (-175) is listed as a healthy favorite over Norwich (+460) and it’s hard to make a case for the host in this matchup. The Canaries have dropped five of their last six and the offense has managed just six goals during this skid.

Arsenal has netted 23 goals this season and what’s impressive is that 15 of those have come on the road. Prior to last week’s lost at West Brom, the Gunners had won five of six league games as visitors.

The Gunners have won three straight against Norwich with all three outcomes decided by two or more goals, which includes a 2-0 win at Carrow Road in May of 2014.

Fearless Predictions

It was a frustrating week at the betting counter as the bankroll dropped nearly three dollars ($270) and the difference between winning and losing occurred in the Man U-Watford contest. Two late goals did us in and that’s been the story this season with overall deficit back into the four-digit realm ($1,315).

Straight – Aston Villa (+170) over Watford – 1 Unit

Straight – Everton (+145) over Bournemouth – 1 Unit

Straight – Over 2 ½ (+100) Manchester United-Leicester City – 1 Unit

Straight – Over 2 ½ (-115) Chelsea-Tottenham – 2 Units

Straight – Chelsea (+185) over Tottenham – 2 Units

Parlay – Under 2 ½ Stoke City-Sunderland, Chelsea (+185), Arsenal (-175) – 1 Unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Leicester hosts United in battle for first place
By SOCCER AUTHORITY

We're 13 rounds into the Premier League and Leicester is top of the table on 28 points. The Foxes face a stiff test this week with second placed Manchester United coming into town.

Soccer Authority breaks down the biggest matches in the Premier League this weekend.

Leicester (+225) vs. Manchester United (+140)

This game looks all set to be the highlight of the weekend with Leicester taking on Manchester United. But perhaps the most talked about subject will be Jamie Vardy's consecutive goalscoring record.

If the Leicester man can score he will break Ruud Van Nistelrooy's record of scoring in 10 consecutive Premier League games. To do that, however, he will need to get through the meanest defense in the league. United has only given up nine goals this season and haven't conceded a goal from open play in over four weeks!

Key Stats:

- Man Utd have won 10 of their last 11 matches against Leicester.
- Leicester have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches in the EPL.

Injuries/Suspension: Michael Carrick, Luke Shaw and Antonio Valencia (Man Utd). Leicester will have a fully fit squad to choose from


Tottenham (+150) vs. Chelsea (+500)

This London derby rarely fails to entertain and we could have an epic battle on our hands this Sunday.

Despite Chelsea narrowly winning their last two games, Tottenham will come into this game as favorites (+150). One concern that Spurs backers might have is that they have played on Thursday in Azerbaijan (7 hour flight from London) so we may see some jet lag from players after enduring a long round trip mid-week.

John Terry picked up an injury in Chelsea's last game and should struggle to be fit in time.

Despite all Chelsea's criticisms they do tend to come good in these big games and with two wins under their belt they won't be under so much pressure.

Key Stats:

- Spurs have scored 1st in 7 of their last 9 games against teams placed in the bottom 6 of the EPL
- There have been no shortage of goals in this fixture with an average of 4.4 Goals per game when looking at the last 8

Injuries/Suspensions: John Terry, Ramires (Doubtful) Falcao (Out)


Liverpool (-200) vs. Swansea (+750)

It's hard to see past Liverpool in this game. Liverpool are a vastly improved side under Jurgen Klopp and have only lost once since the German was appointed Manager.

Swansea on the other hand are going through one of their worst spells in the last 3 years with only 1 win in their last 10 games in all competitions.

Gary Monk's (Swansea) Job is on the line and you have to expect another loss will see him shown the door.

Key Stat:

- Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 in all competitions including a 4-1 thrashing of Man City last weekend.
- Over the last 6 meetings between the teams Swansea have conceded an average of 3 Goals per game

Injuries/Suspensions: Sturridge and Henderson are the only major absentees for Liverpool, Swansea will have a fully fit squad of players to choose from.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Under bets have been in Stoke matches away from home
Andrew Avery

Goals are hard to come by in Stoke's Premier League matches away from home, but Under bettors are cashing in.

Under 2.5 goals has hit in six consecutive games the Potters have played away from the Brittania Stadium, with the club mustering six goals and their opponents managing just five.

The first away game of the season, against Tottenham Hotspur at White Hart Lane, finished in a 2-2 draw, accounting for good portion of those goals.

The Potters visit the Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland Saturday. Over 2.5 goals is priced at +125 while the Under is -163.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Cal-Expo

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$2300 - CLAIMING PRICE $2,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 9 LUCKY LAND 7/1


# 5 YANKEE FLYER 15/1


# 2 STYLEMASTER 3/1


Hard not to back LUCKY LAND as the top pick in this one and look at those nice morning line odds. Wagering on interesting entrants from the 9 position at Cal-Expo has rewarded bettors with better than average profits. Have to like a nice horse coming out of the Cal-Expo 9 hole. The win rate is great, way above normal. Very likely think these two have some sort of connection going. Lackey in the cart means a formidable chance to get the win. YANKEE FLYER - Not many folks know, but the 5 position here at Cal-Expo has been fantastic for an above average win percentage. STYLEMASTER - With a excellent driver, who has won at a respectable 33 percent rate the last 30 days, this has to be one of the best selections. He has nice class stats, averaging 78. Should be considered for a bet in here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pompano Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Post: 8:24 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$6500 - CLAIMING $10,000 NO.6 TIDEWATER TOMAHAWK - SCRATCHED JUDGES WALLIS PICKED 3 OVER 8


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 NEPTUNE BLUE CHIP 12/1


# 9 F TWENTY TWO 15/1


# 2 OFFICERNAGENTLEMAN 3/1


If you want a respectable play in here, feast your eyes on NEPTUNE BLUE CHIP looking ever better at 12/1 on the morning line. Could very well provide us a win based on competitive recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 87. Unquestionably the class of the grouping with an average rating of 88. A nice selection. Is a formidable choice given the 87 speed rating from his most recent competition. F TWENTY TWO - Worth serious consideration here on the basis of the rankings in the speed rating department alone. Has a substantial shot in this event, if he can perform to his back racing class. OFFICERNAGENTLEMAN - Overall statistics look really good. Can't throw him out of the picture. With a formidable 82 speed rating last time out, will positively be a factor in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 34

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLASIFICADOS EN $3,500 Y DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 CEMI 3/1


# 1 DON YUYIN B. 20/1


# 4 RIQUITILLO 2/1


CEMI has a very good shot to take this race. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. DON YUYIN B. - Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the contest. RIQUITILLO - Santiago has him trained soundly to break promptly out of the starting gate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 57

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 CHARLIES HAPPY CAT 8/1


# 3 THORN OF PLENTY 7/2


# 1 RAYO LASER 3/1


I've got to go with CHARLIES HAPPY CAT and is a very strong value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Marlin has her trained solidly to break sharply out of the gate. Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. THORN OF PLENTY - Lately Bocachica has been scorching which may give the edge to this filly. In this field, this one is at the top in earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. RAYO LASER - With a sound 51 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Ought to be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #9 - Post: 6:15pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 POKER PLAYER (ML=5/2)
#6 IMPERIAL TEA (ML=3/1)
#8 TAIL GUNNER CARL (ML=20/1)


POKER PLAYER - The ROI when Thornton and Domenosky team up is tremendous. Entered a $20,000 Claiming race at Hawthorne in the last race and raced on the soft turf finishing fourth. Should do much better in this field. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another confirmation that this equine has class. IMPERIAL TEA - Have to make this colt a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on November 11th. Just check out his latest rating, 84. That one fits well in this field. TAIL GUNNER CARL - This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 30 to 57 to 64 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ATOMIC (ML=9/2), #7 DARK HUMORISTA (ML=6/1), #1 W W ORIENT (ML=8/1),

ATOMIC - Run-of-the-mill speed rating last time around the track at Hawthorne at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race. DARK HUMORISTA - You figure that this equine is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't finish first regularly. W W ORIENT - A pattern of declining Equibase speed figures 80/75/72 for this steed.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #2 POKER PLAYER on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #11 - Post: 5:35pm - Stakes - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $200,000 Class Rating: 101 Kentucky Jockey Club S. (Grade 2)

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 MOR SPIRIT (ML=7/2)
#3 AIROFORCE (ML=3/1)


MOR SPIRIT - The latest speed figure of 116 is the highest last race rating in the bunch. AIROFORCE - I like that last race on October 30th at Keeneland where he ran second. Although I sometimes have doubts about a pony who failed as the favorite in his last race, this colt got a solid fig and fits well here. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 86 to 98 to 109 in a row. The addition of the 'shades' should keep his mind on business today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 ANNUAL REPORT (ML=5/1), #10 MO TOM (ML=8/1), #4 GUN RUNNER (ML=8/1),

ANNUAL REPORT - Would have to get more than the morning line odds of 5/1 to play this animal. MO TOM - He had to show me more against that weaker field in the last race on November 1st to get my support today. GUN RUNNER - This pony ran a pedestrian speed fig last time out. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's event running that rating.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - AIROFORCE - I start with the top class horse in the bunch then work my way down. This one's got the top earnings per start. No need to look further.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #9 MOR SPIRIT to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
[3,9] with [3,9] with [4,5,6,7,10] Total Cost: $10

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,9] with [3,9] with [6,7,10] with [4,5,6,7,10] Total Cost: $24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #9 - AQUEDUCT - 3:50 PM EASTERN POST


The Cigar Mile Handicap

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE I THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $500,000.00 PURSE

#5 TONALIST
#2 MSHAWISH
#7 PRIVATE ZONE
#3 RED VINE

The Cigar Mile was run as the NYRA Mile prior to 1997. It was renamed that year in honor of the two-time Horse of the Year who won the 1994 edition. Cigar equaled Citation's modern-day North American record of 16 consecutive victories with his win in the Citation Challenge at Arlington International in 1996. Among his victories during that streak were the 1995 Woodward, the 1995 Jockey Club Gold Cub, the 1995 Breeders' Cup Classic, and the 1996 Woodward, all at Belmont Park; as well as the aforementioned 1994 NYRA Mile at Aqueduct. The NYRA Mile was created by former NYRA President Jerry McKeon. The one-mile distance was chosen to attract both sprinters and distance horses. Here in the 27th renewal of this stakes test, #5 TONALIST qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five outings. Jockey John Velazquez and Trainer Chris Clement send him to the post for the "Saturday Feature" ... they've hit the board with68% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MSHAWISH, a 10-1 BOMB, drops in class, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight starts, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his 4th and 5th races back. #7 PRIVATE ZONE, the morning line favorite, and the winner of this race last year, has hit the board in five straight, winning three times in this recent streak of racing consistency.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 11/28 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: (50 - 80 / $175.60) BELL VALLEY TIGER (4th)

Spot Play: SOMESTARSOMEWHERE (8th)


Race 1

(2) JOHN JAY burned cash last start just racing evenly after a nice debut. If the pacer races back to his first effort he's the horse to beat. (9) BUBBA TELLS ALL has been facing much tougher at Hoosier. The pacer will probably look to get a good early spot off the gate. (10) ONE MORE HANK broke his maiden last week racing gamely on the lead at this level; threat.

Race 2

(1) RESPONSE was bet down heavily first start in a new barn last out. The pacer should have more to offer second start back off a layoff. (2) SHADY BAY picks up a positive driver change and could offer a big price. (10) PARKLANE INDY always offers low value and needs to find a way into the race.

Race 3

(1) PARTY HANGOVER has been sharp and will be closer turning for home. (4) FOX VALLEY AUBREY beat a solid field last week; threat. (2) CRUEL GIRL just missed last start off a pocket trip. The pacer looks to be improving in a wide open race.

Race 4

(2) BELL VALLEY TIGER gets sent out for a hot barn down at the bottom level. (6) JOSTING JACK was a big winner first start out in a new barn. The pacer should be in the mix with a similar effort. (5) MAJOR MALE has been very competitive against this group.

Race 5

(7) ROCK HOLLYWOOD is racing gamely and another similar effort puts him on the ticket. (4) MARLEY'S GUY gelding has raced huge in his last three. The trotter gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but is a threat. (8) MASTER OF EXCUSES is very inconsistent but a good effort puts him close.

Race 6

(10) GOSSIP MODEL just beat a similar group and has the most upside in the field. (8) LOLLIPOP has been much better in a new barn; threat. (7) LUCKY DALI came up completely empty last week. The well bred filly is capable with a good effort.

Race 7

In a very tough race to handicap, (3) ROCKIN SOCKEM put in a decent effort last out and should be in line for a ground saving trip up close. (6) FLUKY'S GIRL is one of few in the race that's shown decent closing ability. (5) BB ROCKETTE just missed last week at this level; threat.

Race 8

(4) SOMESTARSOMEWHERE well bred stallion should like this spot against weaker. (3) ROCKIN THE HOUSE went a monster effort last week down in class pressed the entire mile. (7) A COOL CARD has been super sharp but needs more against this group; command a price.

Race 9

(1) COLE HEAT just beat this bunch and looks in line for another nice trip. (3) CAM B ZIPPER was empty last week turning for home. The pacer has owned this level when on his game. (8) MASTER OF DESIRE is probably best used underneath against this group.

Race 10

(2) FANTASTIC ROCK should offer a much better price this week. The pacer has paced some big miles against better on the year. (7) FOX VALLEY ANDY drops in for a tag off some dull efforts, however the pacer is more than capable. (9) MAKE IT WORK gets sent out for a hot barn and loves to win; threat.

Race 11

(1) BEST MAN HANOVER it’s tough to predict what kind of effort you'll get out of the pacer. He takes a huge drop in competition with the best post. (6) FIRSTCLASSALLTHWAY should be much closer turning for home and was the driver's choice. (4) VALIENTE STRIDE will look to make it three straight bumping up in class but will need much more.

Race 12

(1) DP ANGEL mare was parked the mile last week never seeing a pylon. The pacer will be out for revenge this week with a big post edge on her main rivals. (6) ALL PINK scored a monster upset last week parking the top choice taking no prisoners. The 4-year-old still had enough to hold on late for a lifetime mark. (9) JOYFUL GAME should offer a huge price and could look to pick up the pieces late; use underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/28 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2/5/3,5,6/4,6,10/2,3,6,8,10 = $18

EARLY PICK 4: 4,6,10/2.3,6,8,10/2,3,7/3 = $45

LATE PICK 4: 4/2,3,4,5,6,7/1,2,6,7/2,4,5 = $72

MEET STATS: 105 - 345 / $534.80 BEST BETS: 16 - 31 / $54.10

SPOT PLAYS: 8 - 31 / $99.80

Best Bet: MACH ON THE BEACH (2nd) Spot Play: BILBO HANOVER (5th)


Race 1

(1) CAJON LIGHTNING got a much better steer last week and converted. He looks good to repeat here but may have to contend with (2) NATURESCAPE, who raced well in his first start off the shelf and should challenge earlier in the mile here. (5) DOCTOR ROYAL looks best of the rest but will likely have trouble holding off both of the top two.

Race 2

(5) MACH ON THE BEACH was a strong winner last week and will be tough to beat here at a very low price. (2) JACK REACHER looks like the lone real threat to the choice but will need a trip to do it. (1) SPORTS LIGHTNING was a distant third to the choice last week, which could be repeated here.

Race 3

(5) WIN THE DAY suffered an impossibly long trip last week. He should be sharper coming back in 7 days this time. (3) LOVE HUNTER tripped-out to win last week and could get a similar golden journey here; using. (6) P L ICABOD will likely try to take this group coast-to-coast and any breathers given make him tougher late in the mile.

Race 4

(10) BROOKDALE SHADOW takes a big class plunge and is a must-use in Pick 4s and 5s, but the 10-hole can be the great equalizer. Beware taking a low price in the win pool. (6) ADAYMER SEELSTER is going to pop at a huge price one of these weeks when she gets a more aggressive steer; using. (4) NINETTE B can be closer here if she starts her move earlier. She too has upset possibilities.

Race 5

(2) BILBO HANOVER drops back to the class he won in two back and should be a good price here. (8) NICKLE BAG blew some carbon out of the engine in the top class last week after missing six months. He should be right there this time. (6) RISE UP NOW ships in after facing some of the best sophomores and goes for the leading trainer, but has missed more than a month; your call.

Race 6

(3) FOOLISH MIND had pace but nowhere to go for most of the stretch last week. Maybe she gets a better steer here. (7) OCEANVIEW BINDI drops back to the class where she races best and should offer some value on Pick 4 tickets. (2) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE has bounced back from breaks in stride to win a few times before; beware.

Race 7

(3) MOHAWK WARRIOR has faced the two best sophomore pacers on the continent the past two starts and was 2nd and 3rd in sharp efforts. He should blitz these despite the three-week break in action. (8) ON THE ROCKS has really come around for Hall of Famer McIntosh in the past month and looks like the main danger. (4) JULERICA has developed a wicked late kick and would be the beneficiary if the top two aren’t at their best.

Race 8

(4) STORMONT WIZARD got much more aggressive last week and was an easy winner in the opening lag of this series. He will be tough here at odds-on. (6) FREDDIE closed well in his first Woodbine start and should get a big share in a field with few real contenders. (1) GRONK is a good bet for a slice, as his record indicates.

Race 9

(5) CRAFTY MASTER got hung out to dry last week. He’s one of several possibilities in here, but will likely be one of the better prices so we’ll try him on top. (2) BEACH HERO drops back into claimers which should make him one of the top contenders. (3) TOPCORNERTERROR found himself too far back early as a big chalk last week. He’s another in with a good shot.

Race 10

(2) ROCKINONBY was a big winner last week now faces better but may be up to it. (6) C L ART MAGIC took a shuffle vs. better and then came back on for third. He stands a much better chance in this NW 3 class. (7) STAR COVER has raced against and beaten better than these. If he’s ready to fire his best shot off an eight-week break, look out.

Race 11

(2) SOUTHWIND AMAZON raced okay off a month break, now returns in a week and can take this group with a reasonable trip. (4) HIS BOY ELROY has raced in four straight sub-1:51 miles, which is highly unlikely to happen here. He’s in with a good shot. (5) SOMEWHERE FANCY was a sharp winner in a lower class in his second start over the track and merits respect.

Race 12

(1) PRINCE CLYDE moves inside nine posts and should get involved here unlike last week. (4) VICTOR BAYAMA drops back to a class where he should be much more competitive. (3) ERIE DALE N’s form stacks up well but he’s missed a month and drops Lasix; tough call. (2) D GS CAMMIE should grab a share racing from close range and could even upset if he can work out a perfect trip. (7) DIALAMARA returns and adds Lasix. A minor share is possible.