Saturday 11/26/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Saturday’s games

New York beat the Hornets in OT at home last nite; Anthony played 41:00, scored 35 points. Charlotte lost its last four games, by 5-15-5-2 points; they’re 4-4 at home, 3-1 as home favorites. Over is 7-3 in their last ten games. New York won five of last six games but lost last three on road- they’re 1-5 on road. Knicks lost six of last eight games with Charlotte. Underdogs covered seven of last nine series games.

San Antonio won its last eight games, covering three of last four; they’re 9-0 on road (7-1 as road favorite); Spurs’ last six games went over the total. SA won eight of last ten games with Washington, but lost last two visits here, by 8-3 points. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Wizards won three of last four games, are 4-4 at home (3-5 vs spread). Four of last six Washington games went over the total.

Detroit won its last two games but is 1-7 on road, 1-5 as a road underdog; under is 11-5 in their last 16 games (4-2 last six on road). Thunder is 7-3 in its last ten games with Detroit; Pistons lost four of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Last five series games stayed under the total. Oklahoma City won an OT game in high altitude in Denver last nite, snapping 3-game skid; Thunder lost four of last six home games, is 5-4 as a home favorite.

Miami won 90-81 in Memphis last night; Grizzlies won four of last six games with Heat (4-1-1 vs spread in last six). Grizzlies lost three of last four visits here- they won six of its last seven games overall (five wins on road). Memphis is 3-3 as a road underdog; four of their last five games stayed under total. Heat is 3-2 in its last five games; they’re 3-6 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Miami games.

Warriors won seven of their last eight games with Minnesota but T’Wolves covered five of the last six meetings; Minnesota won its last visit here, is 4-1 vs spread in last five trips to Oakland. Under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Golden State won its last ten games, winning last three by 37-43-24 points; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a road favorite. Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Saturday’s games

UMass/Harvard split pair of games last two years; UMass won by 6 LY, lost by 2 the year before. Minutemen are 3-1 this year, turning ball over 24.6% of time while playing #3 tempo- they beat Temple by 3, lost at Ole Miss by 2. UMass is #329 in experience but #25 in eFG% defense. Harvard lost to Stanford by 10, Holy Cross by 11 in its two D-I games; they’re turning ball over 22.7% of time, shooting just 31% on arc. A-14 favorites are 14-16 vs spread. Ivy League underdogs are 5-6.

Georgia Tech/Tulane are both in first year of rebuilds; Tech is 3-1 with only loss at home to #87 Ohio- their wins are by 8-15-15 points. Tulane went 0-3 on trip to Orlando, losing by 19-9-5 points to Oklahoma-ASU-Missouri. Green Wave is shooting 39.5% outside arc, just 39.3% inside arc- three of their four losses are by 9+ points. This is Tulane’s first true road game. ACC home favorites are 13-8 vs spread this month. AAC road underdogs are 7-10 away from home.

James Madison is 0-5 under its new coach, after they fired a coach who won 40 games last two years; Dukes hammered their old CAA rival George Mason 69-46 LY, their first meeting since Mason bolted for the A-14. JMU is turning ball over 23.5% of time while in bottom 10 in country in forcing turnovers. George Mason won two of three games in Florida earlier this week, beating Kent State/Bradley; Patriots are shooting 26.3% on arc. CAA road underdogs are 11-4 vs spread. A-14 home favorites are 6-14 vs spread.

Xavier outscored Northern Iowa 21-9 in first 10:00 of second half, breaking halftime tie as they beat UNI 67-59 in finals of Tire Pros tourney in Orlando six days ago. Panthers shot only 33% inside arc for the game. Xavier is 5-0 with its best win over Clemson by 6; Musketeers are forcing turnovers 22.4% of time, shooting just 28% on arc. Panthers beat Arizona St/Oklahoma in Florida; they’re #73 experience team and shooting 41.2% on arc, playing 10th-slowest tempo in country. MVC road underdogs are 8-10 against the spread.

Syracuse is 4-0 with only decent opponent Monmouth (won 91-70); Orange have #1 eFG% defense in country (34%)- this game is in Brooklyn is NOT a neutral site. Syracuse should have lot of fans there. Syracuse has more depth this year than they’ve had in while; opponents are shooting 19.2% on arc against them, but this is also SU’s first game in an arena as opposed to the Dome. South Carolina is also 5-0 with a win over Michigan and an OT win vs Monmouth; Gamecocks are turning ball over 20.9% of time, but have #4 eFG% defense in country.

Davidson beat local rival Charlotte last three years by 9-6-35 points; they were 13-29 on arc in a 109-74 rout of 49ers LY. Wildcats won two of three games in Orlando LW, beating Mizzou and Arizona State after losing to Clemson by 17. Davidson is turning ball over 21.2% of time, shooting just 30.8% on arc- star G Gibbs played 33 mpg after missing first game. Charlotte won 100-95 at Elon then lost at home in OT to #256 SC-Upstate; 49ers are making 51.1% on arc, #1 in country but their eFG% defense is #321- they’re playing #21 pace in country.


Nicefille, FL tournament

Iowa is beat three teams ranked outside top 300, lost by 8 at home to Seton Hall, by 33 to Virginia last nite. Hawkeyes are subbing a lot with the #342 experience team, so they’re using pre-conference to get a young team ready for league play- they’re also playing #22 tempo. Memphis is 4-1 with four wins vs teams outside top 250; they’ve got a new coach, not much experience- they’re 4th-worst team in country on foul line right now. Tigers lost to Providence by 9 last night; they used six guys 25:00+, were 4-23 on arc in a winnable game.

Virginia is 5-0 and 24 points was closest game they’ve played; Cavaliers are playing slowest tempo in country, forcing turnovers 26% of time- their eFG% defense is #2 in country. Providence played three guys 36:00+ in 60-51 win over Memphis last nite; Friars won despite using seven guys more than 8:00, going 2-20 on arc- they were +6 in turnovers (17-11). PC is 4-1 with a 72-67 loss at Ohio State; they’re forcing turnovers 22.3% of time, playing #286 tempo with #252 experience team.


UNLV tournament

UNLV is 3-2 with all five games at home; Rebels scored 59-68 points in their two losses, 74+ in three wins- they’ve got new coach, roster that was mostly cobbled together last spring, so they are still getting to learn to play together- it takes time. Western Kentucky was crushed last night by Washington, not good for a team that starts four seniors. WKU was -12 on boards; they are 0-2 vs top 200 teams, also losing by 21 to Belmont. UNLV played three guys 33:00+ in tough loss to TCU last night. WKU played three guys 30:00+, but it wasn’t a tense game.

TCU is Washington scored 94 pts/game in winning its last four games since Yale upset them 98-90 in their opener. Huskies are #340 in experience; shooting 40.2% on arc while playing #6 tempo in country- they’re recruiting 1-and-done kids, meaning they’ll always struggle for great chemistry. Horned Frogs are are 5-0 with best win 80-71 over Illinois State; last night was their first road game. TCU is forcing turnovers 25.9% of time, shooting 40.7% on arc. Weird thing: these teams play again Wednesday in Fort Worth.


Alaskan Shootout

Oakland played Wednesday/Friday, Cal-Davis is playing third night in row. Oakland plays #12 tempo in country; they won by 8-28 points in two games vs teams ranked outside top 200. Grizzlies start three juniors and a senior; they’re not a strong defensive team but they score like hell. Cal-Davis turned ball over 18 times (-8) in 64-58 win over #261 Drake last night; Aggies are #70 in experience- they turn ball over 21.8% of time but are making 41.8% on arc. Davis lost by 14-28 point sin its two games against teams ranked in top 200.

Weber State lost three of last four games; they got crushed 76-54 by Iona last night; Wildcats were -8 in turnovers, as teams starting three sophs sometimes are. Weber is turning ball over 20.8% of time. Buffalo played four guys 30:00+ in 67-62 loss to Nevada last night; Bulls are starting two freshmen and a soph and turning ball over 23% of time while shooting just 43.7% inside arc- they’re 1-2 in D-I games, winning by 10 over #307 Niagara. Weber is playing for third night in row; Buffalo played Wednesday/Friday.

Last Sunday in Reno, Nevada beat Iona 91-76 in game Iona led by 14 late in first half, by 10 at halftime. Gaels were just 6-29 on arc, were outscored 24-12 on foul line in 76-possession game. Nevada had the tougher game last night, beating Buffalo by 5, but Iona is playing for third night in a row- they lost 6-8 Washington to leg injury- he had 29 points in game at*Reno last week. Iona is 2-2 with both wins in this event; they were 13-25 on arc last night, start three seniors, two of whom are transfers. Wolf Pack used their subs for only 22:00 total last night; five starters all played 33:00+ in a 5-point win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Week 13 opening line report: Rivalry week has huge implications
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week No. 13 of the college football season is bound to be lucky for some teams, and quite unlucky for others, particularly in a couple of big rivalry games. We talk about the opening lines on four key contests with John Lester, senior lines manager.

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-7)

Not surprisingly, this Big 10 showdown again has huge implications at The Horseshoe. Ohio State (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) nearly took itself out of the Big Ten and national championship chase on Saturday, barely surviving at Michigan State 17-16 as a 20-point road favorite.

In fact, the Spartans could have tied it with just under five minutes remaining, but instead opted to go for the 2-point conversion after pulling within 17-16, and that attempt failed.

Michigan (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) struggled on its home field in the snow Saturday, trailing Indiana until well into the third quarter. The Wolverines got out with a 20-10 victory, but much like the Buckeyes, fell way short as massive 24-point faves.

Ohio State has owned this Big 10 rivalry of late, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes, including a 42-13 road rout last year laying 1.5 points.

“You’ve got to think the public bettors are going to look at last year’s utter domination by the Buckeyes and think they are the prudent play,” Lester said. “But we feel pretty good about the number and aren’t quite sure where the wiseguys are going to place their wagers, if at all. I think this could close lower than the open.”

No. 9 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-18)

Alabama is still undefeated, but for at least the first half Saturday, Nick Saban’s troops were far from impressive against FCS foe Chattanooga. The Crimson Tide (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) trailed 3-0 midway through the first quarter and were up just 14-3 at halftime as an overwhelming 48.5-point home fave. ‘Bama ultimately settled for a 31-3 victory and was probably caught looking ahead a bit to this week’s Iron Bowl.

Auburn lost two of its first three games, but has had a pretty steady ship since, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. The Tigers (8-3 SU and ATS) also hosted an FCS foe this past weekend, bagging a 55-0 win over Alabama A&M – as a 54-point chalk.

The Tide are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with the Tigers, including a 29-13 road win last year giving 14.5 points.

“Same old story, as Alabama is another massive favorite against another SEC opponent,” Lester said. “Sure, you can say throw out the record book for this rivalry, but I don’t know if any football adage can aptly describe how dominant this Tide team really is. No doubt we’ll need the underdog again here.”

No. 6 Washington Huskies at Washington State Cougars (+5.5)

The annual Apple Cup has major ramifications, particularly for visiting Washington, which still has a shot at consideration for the four-team College Football Playoff. The Huskies (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) bounced back from their lone loss of the season – to Southern Cal – with a 44-18 victory over Arizona State as a 27-point home favorite Saturday.

Washington State was unbeaten in Pac-12 play until Saturday, when it fell to Colorado 38-24 as a 6-point road pup. But the Cougars (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) can still reach the conference title game as the North Division champ if they beat the Huskies.

Washington has won the last three in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), all by double digits: 27-17 in 2013 as a 17.5-point home fave; 31-13 two years ago laying 4 on the road; and 45-10 last year giving 7.5 at home.

“Obviously a big rivalry game, so we can’t be too generous on the visitor side due to perception,” Lester said. “And there are a lot of sharps who don’t see the Huskies as a top-10 squad, based on the schedule they’ve played. We set a dead number to see where the action will take it.”

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Southern California Trojans (-17)

Southern Cal ends its regular season with a nonconference game, meaning win or lose, the Trojans need only for Colorado to lose at home to Utah in order to make the Pac-12 title game. USC is in that position because it beat Colorado head-to-head earlier this year as part of a still-running seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Trojans (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) dropped host UCLA 36-14 Saturday night giving 13 points.

Notre Dame has had a forgettable season, to be sure, standing just 4-7 SU and ATS. On Saturday, the Fighting Irish lost to Virginia Tech 34-31 as a 1-point home chalk.

The Irish are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four against USC, including a 41-31 home win last year laying 6 points. But two years ago in L.A., the Trojans rolled 49-14 as a 4.5-point fave.

“Two of the most public teams we have in college football, but the bettors are well aware of the current state of each,” Lester said. “USC is in the top 10 of our power ratings, while the Irish are well down in the pecking order. We expect to see this number climb.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 13
By Marcus DiNitto

Neither Michigan nor Ohio State has much momentum coming into Saturday’s Big Ten clash, but John Avello, executive director of race and sport at the Wynn Las Vegas, isn’t giving a lot of weight to what he calls “lethargic” performances last week by the Wolverines and Buckeyes.

Michigan beat Indiana 20-10, while Ohio State survived at Michigan State, 17-16.

“I’m going to throw out those games for both teams,” Avello said. “They were looking ahead. The look-ahead doesn’t always work, but this week it did. And there were moves on both dogs in those games, reflecting that they may play that way, and they did.”

Michigan’s current situation may be cause for greater concern for bettors. The uninspiring effort against Indiana followed the Wolverines’ first loss of the season, 14-13 at Iowa two weeks ago. Starting quarterback Wilton Speight was injured in the loss, and backup John O’Korn was unimpressive against the Hoosiers. On Monday, Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh said Speight’s health is improving but that he’s still considered day-to-day.

Avello suspects Speight will play against Ohio State and priced the game accordingly. Avello usually waits to post a game if there is uncertainty about a quarterback’s status, but he wanted to get this game on his board and made Ohio State the 6-point favorite.

“I put it up thinking he is going to play and that there’s going to be Ohio State money,” Avello said. “That’s kind of what my feeling was and I ended up using the 6. I was thinking lower late last week, but after looking at the performance of Michigan more so than Ohio State, I took it up a little bit.”

Opinions about how big a dropoff there is form Speight to O’Korn vary among oddsmakers.

“I think it means a lot to them. It’s really important to have that kid back,” said Avello, who sees the line getting to 7 or 7.5 should Speight be ruled out.

Over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, though, Ed Salmons isn’t sure there’s much of difference between the two signal callers.

“I don’t think it’s a big deal the way Michigan plays,” he said. “It’s not like (Speight) is a great passer.”

No matter who is under center, Salmons has a feeling about the style of play Michigan will try to employ.

“I’m sure Michigan’s goal is to muck this game up the way Michigan State did last year when they went up to Ohio State,” he said. “Ohio State essentially played to Michigan State’s tempo. (The Spartans) went up there with a backup quarterback and tried to play real conservative and run the ball and shorten the game, and Ohio State played the same way – and Michigan State got lucky and won the game (17-14). I’m sure that’s exactly what Michigan is going to try to do. Ohio State should not get caught in the trap.”

Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., sees it similarly.

“It’s going to be brutally physical, and I think it’s going to be very low scoring, depending on weather,” he said.

About 18 hours after wagering opened at his shop, Avello said he booked more action on Ohio State than Michigan: “Nothing overwhelming, but mostly Ohio State money.”

CG Technology vice president of risk Jason Simbal said his book opened Ohio State -7 and moved to -6.5 after taking a sharp bet on the dog.

Nebraska at Iowa (-2.5)

Friday’s Big Ten West battle drew more action than any other Week 13 college football game at CG on Sunday, which opened Iowa -2.5 and moved to -3 after sharp action on the home favorite Hawkeyes, Simbal said. The Wynn opened 2.5 on Sunday and moved to -3 Monday.

Nebraska’s top two QBs, Ryker Fyfe and Tommy Armstrong, are both dealing with injuries, and it’s uncertain who will start for the Cornhuskers on Friday.

Auburn at Alabama (-17.5)

CG opened Alabama -18.5 on Sunday and moved to -20 after a bettor laid the points, before reopening at the market price of 17.5 on Monday. The Wynn hung 17 and moved to 17.5 about an hour after wagering opened. While there are 18.5s available for dog bettors, Avello doesn’t see this line running too much higher.

If Bogdanovich was on the other side of the counter, he’d be giving serious consideration to Auburn plus the points.

“If Auburn is healthy enough, they can pull it off,” Bogdanovich said. “I don’t think Alabama’s invincible like everybody else. ... I think the dog’s the play”

Florida at Florida State (-7)

Florida is coming off an upset win at LSU and faces Alabama next week in the SEC championship game. Is it possible for a rivalry game to be a look-ahead spot also?

The look-ahead mentality could play into Florida’s mindset, Salmons said, but he added, “They have no chance against Alabama, so maybe this is a game they’ll play hard. Their defense can keep them in the game. It’s a top-five defense in the country, and Florida State’s nothing to write home about.”

While the line was bet down at CG from Florida State -8 to -7 on Sunday, William Hill opened the game 6.5.

Utah at Colorado (-10.5)

With a win here, Colorado is in the Pac-12 championship game. If the Buffs lose, USC gets in. Bettors tend to back teams with this sort of motivation.

“Players will like to bet Colorado in this spot,” Avello said. “I don’t know how much Utah money there’s going to be.”

While win-and-they’re-in is one reason this number opened in double digits, more important is the way these two teams have been playing in recent weeks.

“The Utah team is not playing that well,” Avello said. “UCLA with a second-string quarterback was going up and down the field at will (against them). This team was always built on defense. If you go back and look at the team last year, they kept their opponents’ scores down quite a bit. They can’t do that this year. It looks like offenses can really rule them, and Colorado has one of the most prolific offenses in football. They have no problem moving the football every week. … They can score when they need to.”

The Westgate’s Salmons added of Utah’s 30-28 loss at home to Oregon this past Saturday, “You can line up 11 high school kids against Oregon and score 30 points. For Utah to not score, I don’t know what they were doing in that game. That’s embarrassing.”

Washington (-5.5) at Washington State

The Wynn opened Washington -5 and moved to -5.5 on Monday, but most shops are dealing 6s.

Bogdanovich’s outlook on the game may entice underdog bettors.

“I think it’s going to be a wild-and-woolly affair, and whoever has the ball last may win,” he said.

Virginia at Virginia Tech (-17.5)

Virginia Tech clinches a spot in the ACC title game with a win, and Virginia has two wins all season, yet early money was on the dog, pushing the Wynn’s opening number from 19.5 to 17.5.

Avello wasn’t necessarily surprised. Virginia hasn’t been winning games, but they’ve performed relatively well against solid competition like Pitt, North Carolina, Louisville and Miami.

“They’re playing better even though they’re not showing the reward of the W,” Avello said.

Also, while the Cavaliers have lost to the Hokies 12-straight years, the last four meetings have been close, Virginia Tech winning by margins of 3, 4, 10 and 3.

Bettors taking the points are looking for a closer-than-expected rivalry game.

“This is all about tradition and history,” Avello said of the early move.

Early line moves

These Week 13 games have seen the point spread move at least two points in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Buffalo vs. Bowling Green
Opening line: BGSU -10.5
After 23 hours: BGSU -13.5

Arkansas vs. Missouri
Opening line: Arkansas -7
After 23 hours: Arkansas -9.5

Cincinnati vs. Tulsa
Opening line: Tulsa -18.5
After 23 hours: Tulsa -22

Texas Tech vs. Baylor (neutral)
Opening line: Baylor -3
After 23 hours: Baylor -5

East Carolina vs. Temple
Opening line: Temple -18.5
After 23 hours: Temple -20.5

Purdue vs. Indiana
Opening line: Indiana -15.5
After 23 hours: Indiana -20

Kansas vs. Kansas State
Opening line: Kansas State -24.5
After 23 hours: Kansas State -27

So. Alabama vs. Idaho
Opening line: Idaho -3.5
After 23 hours: Idaho -5.5

Wyoming vs. New Mexico
Opening line: Wyoming -1
After 23 hours: Wyoming -3

These Week 13 games have seen the point spread move at least two points in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

UCLA vs. Cal
Opening line: Cal +6
After 23 hours: Cal +3

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Opening line: Vandy +10.5
After 23 hours: Vandy +8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 13 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

Can't believe how fast the 2016 college football season has flown by as this is the final full weekend of the year, and that means some of the sport's best rivalries are being played. Yet the biggest story around the nation today is that of Charlie Strong.

Somehow, Texas managed to lose at pitiful Kansas on Saturday night in overtime, the Jayhawks' first win in the series since 1938 and their first win over an FBS opponent since 2014. Strong was on very shaky ground as it was, but I think we all knew that loss had to be the final straw for the Texas administration. On Sunday, multiple reports said that Strong was being fired, yet the school would only put out a statement saying he would be evaluated after the regular season. Thus Strong will coach this week's home game vs. TCU, which the Horns need to get bowl eligible at 6-6 (some teams might get an invite at 5-7 if there aren't enough eligible teams).

At Strong's rather uncomfortable weekly press conference Monday, he said that he speaks with school president Gregory L. Fenves after every game and it’s his understanding “that we will be evaluated after the TCU game.” Strong also said he hasn't been told he's fired. I don't understand why the school is leaving him out to dry here. According to a report from the Austin-American Statesman, Texas players are threatening to boycott the team's game against TCU because Strong is being fired. When asked that Monday, Strong said it won't happen.

It's the right move for Texas as Strong just was never a fit there. I'm sure some of the sportsbooks will release a prop on the next Texas coach this week -- unless it's such a foregone conclusion that it's going to be Houston's Tom Herman. Sounds like it's his job to lose and that Herman will take it. I'm sure Texas will at least call Nick Saban again, but he's not leaving Alabama. If Herman opts to take the LSU or possibly the Oregon job instead, that's really going to make UT look bad. A rumored second choice is Clemson's Dabo Swinney, but I don't believe he's leaving that job until Alabama opens as that's Swinney's alma mater.

I actually think Texas is good value on Friday at -2 against the Horned Frogs as Strong's players will want to win for him.

Here are a few Week 12 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from the last College Football Top 25 (will change Tuesday). These are all games before Saturday as I will address Saturday games on my Friday update story.

No. 16 LSU at No. 25 Texas A&M (+5), Thursday: It's the only NCAA action on Thanksgiving. It could be that both these coaches are gone from their respective programs -- and both schools would certainly want to speak with Herman. Any shot interim LSU coach Ed Orgeron had of keeping the job full-time evaporated in Saturday's 16-10 home upset loss to Florida, which ended with the Tigers stopped on fourth down at the UF 1-yard-line. That loss also likely cost LSU a trip to the Sugar Bowl, although it would have had to win here as well. Will LSU have star running back Leonard Fournette? He wasn't going to play vs. Florida with an ankle injury but got into a skirmish pre-game with some Gators and then did play, although he wasn't effective. Texas A&M has a shot at a major bowl if it can win this game. However, I do believe Kevin Sumlin is in trouble with a loss as the Aggies enter having dropped three of five in yet another late-season fade. It's the final home game for Aggies superstar defensive end Myles Garrett, who probably is the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft. He had 4.5 sacks in Saturday's 23-10 win over UTSA. Keep in mind that Aggies QB Trevor Knight is out for the season. The Pick: Texas A&M.

Toledo at No. 21 Western Michigan (-9), Friday: I thought the Broncos were set up for a major trap game Saturday vs. Buffalo as 35-point favorites, but they won 38-0. Corey Davis had 13 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns, breaking the Mid-American Conference record for career receptions. Davis also holds the MAC records for career yards receiving and touchdown catches. Davis also moved closer to the FBS career receiving record. His 4,987 yards ranks second behind Trevor Insley's 5,005. This will be Davis' final home game and probably as well for head coach P.J. Fleck, who is going to be in demand at some Power 5 programs this offseason. The Broncos are still the only other unbeaten team in the country, and the winner of this one plays in the MAC Championship Game against either Ohio or Miami of Ohio. It will be Ohio if it beats visiting Akron on Tuesday. There is no opening line on that yet because the Zips' starting QB is in question. Miami also plays Tuesday and is -8 vs. Ball State. The RedHawks are trying to become the first team in college football history to start 0-6 and finish 6-0. The Pick: WMU.

No. 6 Washington at No. 22 Washington State (+5.5), Friday: This game lost a bit of luster with Wazzu losing to Colorado on Saturday and probably falls out of the new College Football Playoff Top 25 on Tuesday. But the Apple Cup victor still plays in the Pac-12 title game against either Colorado (if it beats Utah) or USC (if Colorado loses). The Huskies should move up to No. 5 in the new CFP Top 25 with Louisville's loss last week. I guarantee you Washington would like another shot at the Trojans, who dominated UW in Seattle two weeks ago. Washington has won the past three in series. It was 45-10 last year, but Cougars star QB Luke Falk was out injured. if Washington loses here, the Pac-12 will miss the playoff -- and it opens the door potentially for Oklahoma if it wins out. Or perhaps two Big Ten teams. The Pick: Washington.

No. 18 Nebraska at Iowa (-3), Friday: The Huskers will play in the Big Ten title game if they win this game and Wisconsin loses on Saturday at home to Minnesota, which I rather doubt. If the Huskers lose here, Wisconsin is in no matter what. Who will NU start at quarterback? Tommy Armstrong Jr. missed Saturday's win over Maryland with a hamstring injury. Coach Mike Riley said backup Ryker Fyfe broke a bone in his non-throwing wrist against the Terps. Zack Darlington, who moved to receiver in the spring, could be pressed into emergency duty for the Huskers. If Nebraska wins at Iowa, Riley is eligible for at least a $250,000 performance bonus per his contract. Must be nice. The Pick: Iowa.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 13 college football games
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.


Total to watch:

Auburn at Alabama (46.5)

This total is currently off the board in many locations due to the uncertainty of two key players on Auburn's offense. Quarterback Sean White missed last week's game and is questionable with a shoulder injury. He is averaging 65% completions and 8.3 yards per pass this year. Backup Jeremy Johnson played well last week, but that was against a horrible Alabama A&M team as a 54-point favorite. Leading rusher, RB Kamryn Pettway (1,106 yards / 6.4 ypr), has missed the past two games and is still questionable with a leg injury.

Alabama is easily the best team in the nation. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Crimson Tide averages 40.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play, but they will now face a tough Auburn defense that permits just 14.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play this year. Alabama's defense has been even stronger, allowing just 11.4 points per game on 4.0 yards per play this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Rankings
By Tony Mejia

Conference Rankings

Entering the final full week of the regular season, the Big Ten has the most teams in the top 10 and a guaranteed bid into the College Football Playoff since the Ohio State/Michigan winner will be getting in. Louisville's loss knocked the ACC out of the top spot, but the league remains ahead of the SEC entering a big weekend of in-state rivalry games.

1) Big Ten
2) ACC
3) SEC
4) Pac-12
5) Big 12
6) American Athletic
7) Mountain West
8) MAC
9) Sun Belt
10) Conference USA

Top 25 - Rankings
Rank Last week School Record Last/Next

1 1 Alabama 11-0 Beat Chattanooga 31-3; Nov. 26 vs. Auburn
2 3 Ohio State 10-1 Won at Michigan St. 17-16; Nov. 26 vs. Michigan
3 4 Clemson 10-1 Won at Wake Forest 35-13; Nov. 26 vs. South Carolina
4 5 Michigan 10-1 Beat Indiana 20-10; Nov. 26 at Ohio St.
5 6 Washington 10-1 Beat Arizona St. 44-18; Nov. 25 at Washington St.
6 7 Wisconsin 9-2 Won at Purdue 49-20; Nov. 26 vs. Minnesota
7 8 Oklahoma 9-2 Won at West Virginia 56-28; Dec. 3 vs. Oklahoma St.
8 10 Oklahoma State 9-2 Won at TCU 31-6; Dec. 3 at Oklahoma
9 2 Louisville 9-2 Lost at Houston 36-10; Nov. 26 vs. Louisville
10 12 Penn State 9-2 Won at Rutgers 39-0; Nov. 26 vs. Michigan St.
11 11 Florida State 8-3 Won at Syracuse 45-14; Nov. 26 vs. Florida
12 13 Nebraska 9-2 Beat Maryland 28-7; Nov. 25 at Iowa
13 16 Colorado 9-2 Beat Washington St. 38-24; Nov. 26 vs. Utah
14 14 Boise State 10-1 Beat UNLV 42-25; Nov. 25 at Air Force
15 18 USC 8-3 Won at UCLA 36-14; Nov. 26 vs. Notre Dame
16 22 Florida 8-2 Won at LSU 16-10; Nov. 26 at Florida St.
17 24 Navy 8-2 Won at East Carolina 66-31; Nov. 26 at SMU
18 NR Houston 9-2 Beat Louisville 36-10; Nov. 25 at Memphis
19 19 Western Michigan 11-0 Beat Buffalo 38-0; Nov. 25 vs. Toledo
20 20 Auburn 8-3 Beat Alabama A&M 55-0; Nov. 26 at Alabama
21 9 Utah 8-3 Lost to Oregon 30-28; Nov. 26 at Colorado
22 NR Stanford 8-3 Won at Cal 45-31; Nov. 26 vs. Rice
23 15 West Virginia 8-2 Lost to Oklahoma 56-28; Nov. 26 at Iowa St.
24 17 Washington State 8-3 Lost at Colorado 38-24; Nov. 25 vs. Washington
25 25 North Carolina 8-3 Beat The Citadel; Nov. 26 vs. NC State

Dropped out: LSU, San Diego St.

On the cusp: Tennessee, Arkansas, South Florida, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Wyoming, San Diego St., Pittsburgh, Minnesota, LSU, Iowa, Miami (FL), Tulsa, Kansas St., Troy, Temple, Air Force, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Toledo.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 13
By Joe Williams

2016 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 5-6 1-6 4-6-1 4-7
Clemson 10-1 7-1 5-6 5-6
Duke 4-7 1-6 7-4 3-8
Florida State 8-3 5-3 6-4 5-5
Georgia Tech 7-4 4-4 5-4-1 5-4-1
Louisville 9-2 7-1 5-5-1 7-4
Miami (Fla.) 7-4 4-3 7-4 5-6
North Carolina 8-3 5-2 7-4 4-7
North Carolina State 5-6 2-5 7-4 4-6-1
Pittsburgh 7-4 4-3 5-6 10-1
Syracuse 4-7 2-5 4-7 2-9
Virginia 2-9 1-6 4-6-1 3-7-1
Virginia Tech 8-3 5-2 5-6 6-5
Wake Forest 6-5 3-4 7-4 5-6


Georgia Tech at Georgia (SEC Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs are each 7-4 heading into their rivalry game in Athens. The Jackets have struggled against the number lately, going 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference games, but just 6-13-1 ATS in the past 20 games overall. They're also 2-6-1 ATS in their past nine road games, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a winning record. UGA is 4-9 ATS in their past 13 home games, but they're 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their past six league outings. The road team is 14-2-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings in this rivalry, and the Jackets are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six trips to Athens. The under is 4-1 in the past five in this series.

Kentucky at Louisville (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats roll into this rivalry game with covers in six of their past eight outings, although they're just 10-22 ATS in their past 32 games away from Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington. The Wildcats haven't had a ton of luck outside of the conference, going 0-4 ATS in their past four outside of the SEC while going 3-12 ATS in their past 15 in the month of November. Louisville needs to regroup after their disappointing non-conference loss against Houston. They're still 4-1-1 ATS in their past six non-conference games and 7-2 ATS in their past nine against the SEC. However, the Cards are 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. In this series the road team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, with the Wildcats 1-4 ATS in the past five. The over is 3-1-1 in the past five.

Virginia at Virginia Tech (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m.)
The Cavaliers of UVA have long since lost out on bowl eligibility, but Saturday's game at Virginia Tech is their bowl game. They can spoil the chances of their biggest rivalry in Blacksburg. Va. Tech is looking to secure a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a victory. The Cavaliers are 18 1/2-point underdogs as of Wednesday morning. The Cavs are 6-2-2 ATS in their past 10 road games, but just 1-5 ATS in the past six non-conference battles, 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their past six overall. Virginia Tech isn't much better, going 7-15-1 ATS in their past 23 against a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts and 4-11-1 ATS in their past 16 home outings against a team with a losing road mark. The underdog has cashed in four straigth in this series, but the Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Blacksburg. The under is 6-1 in the past seven at Lane Stadium, and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh (ACC Network, 12:30 p.m.)
The Orange head to the Steel City in the latest installment of their rivalry. When these teams weren't in the ACC, they used to meet in the Big East. Syracuse has covered just twice in the past seven conference games, 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall and 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record. Pitt has covered four of the past five conference battles and four of their past five overall, but they're just 3-10 ATS in their past 13 home games. The Panthers are also 1-5 ATS in their past six home games against a team with a losing road record. The Orange are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven meetings, and 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to Pittsburgh while the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five. The under has cashed in each of the past four in this series.

Boston College at Wake Forest (ACC Network, 3:00 p.m.)
The Eagles head to the Triad looking to qualify for a bowl with a sixth victory. Wake Forest has already secured bowl eligibility, but they can pick up a seventh win and improve their bowl standing. As it stands right now the Demon Deacons could be headed to El Paso for the Sun Bowl against a Pac-12 representative. The Eagles are just 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 conference teams, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record. However, B.C. is 5-1 ATS in their past six away from home against a team with a winning home record. Wake has covered in five straight league games, while going 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. They're also 11-5 ATS in their past 16 against teams with a losing overall mark. The biggest winner at the betting window has been those taking the 'under' when these sides get together. The under is 6-0 in the past six in the series, and 5-1 in the past six in Winston-Salem.

Duke at Miami-Florida (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Duke's outstanding run of bowl games will come to an end this season, as they're just 4-7 and a two-touchdown underdog in Miami Saturday afternoon. The Hurricanes have had a tale of three seasons, going 4-0 SU/ATS to start the season, 0-4 SU/ATS from Week 6 through, then 3-0 SU/ATS in their past three outings. Duke might not have ticked off many wins this season, but they have hung around. They're 5-1 ATS in their past six overall, 4-1 ATS in their past five league games and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 on the road. Miami has covered four of their past five games against Duke, however, while the 'over' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series.

South Carolina at Clemson (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)
The Gamecocks have been a thorn in the side of their rivals from the upstate, and they have covered six of the past seven meetings in this series. However, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, including last season when the Gamecocks gave the Tigers a huge scare in Columbia, losing 37-32 as three-touchdown 'dogs. In the last meeting at Clemson, the Tigers won 35-17 Nov. 29, 2014 as 3 1/2-point favorites. South Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record, and they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight against ACC foes. Clemson has posted a 4-0 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning road record, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall and 0-4 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Florida at Florida State (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The Gators head to Tallahassee and they're underdogs by a touchdown as of Wednesday morning. The road team has covered in each of the past five meetings in this series, although the favorite is 14-4 ATS in the past 18 meetings in this Sunshine State rivalry. Florida is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five games, and they're 11-4 ATS in their past 15 road games. However, they're 0-6 ATS in their past six outside of the conference. Florida State is 4-1 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts, and 11-5 ATS in the past 16 games overall while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The total for this game sits at 45, and the 'under' might be a popular play. The 'under' has cashed in four straight for the Gators, and each of their past four road games, too. The under is also 17-4 in their past 21 against ACC teams and 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts. For the Seminoles, the under is 19-7 in their past 26 against the SEC and 5-2 in their past seven overall. In this series, the under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in Tally, and 16-5 in the past 21 meetings in this series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 Report - Week 13
By Joe Williams

2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 6-4 3-4 2-8 3-7
Iowa State 3-8 2-6 7-4 7-4
Kansas 2-9 1-7 5-6 4-7
Kansas State 6-4 4-3 4-6 5-5
Oklahoma 9-2 8-0 5-6 6-5
Oklahoma State 9-2 7-1 7-4 7-4
Texas 5-6 3-5 6-5 4-7
Texas Christian 5-5 3-4 2-8 5-5
Texas Tech 4-7 2-6 7-4 6-5
West Virginia 8-2 5-2 4-6 4-6

Kansas at Kansas State (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Battle of the Sunflower State takes place at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, and the Wildcats are favored by 27 points (as of Wednesday morning) to maintain their dominance in the series. The Jayhawks topped Texas last week in overtime, giving them a feel-good story after a dismal season. However, they're still just 10-30-1 ATS in their past 41 road games, 7-23 ATS in their past 30 road outings against a team with a winning home record. The Wildcats have posted a 44-21-1 ATS mark in their past 66 conference tilts, including 17-4 ATS in the past 21 meetings. The favorite has cashed in 18 of the past 21 in this series, and K-State is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 home games against their rivals. The over has hit in five of the past six in this rivalry.

West Virginia at Iowa State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Mountaineers are licking their wounds after taking a beating from the Sooners at home last week in the snow. They look to rebound in Ames against an Iowa State team which has won just three times, but a Cylclones team which is 3-1 ATS in the past four and 7-2 ATS over their past nine outings. I-State has covered five in a row at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight conference games. The 'under' is 6-2 in West Virginia's past eight road games, and 23-9 in their past 32 games overall. For the Cyclones, the 'over' is 4-1 in their past five home games and 7-2 in their past nine games overall and 9-3 in the past 12 conference tilts.

Teams on a Bye
Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 13
By Joe Williams

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 2-9 0-8 1-10 6-5
Arizona State 5-6 2-6 6-5 6-5
California 4-7 2-6 4-7 8-3
Colorado 9-2 7-1 10-1 5-6
Oregon 4-7 2-6 2-8-1 7-4
Oregon State 3-8 2-6 8-3 5-6
Southern California 8-3 7-2 7-4 2-9
Stanford 8-3 6-3 7-4 4-7
UCLA 4-7 2-6 4-7 4-6-1
Utah 8-3 5-4 6-5 6-5
Washington 10-1 7-1 5-6 8-3
Washington State 8-3 7-1 6-5 7-4


Notre Dame at Southern California (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Notre Dame has no chance at a bowl with seven losses, so their final game at USC serves as their bowl game. The Trojans are 17 1/2-point favorites as of Wednesday morning, and a team no one wants to face right now. Interim coach Clay Helton has turned this team into a fighting machine, winning each of their past five games by 13 or more points, including a win at Washington to potentially derail their playoff hopes. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their past five games and the 'under' has cashed in seven straight for USC. The Fighting Irish might be struggling, but they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings against the Trojans. However, they are 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Southern California. The favorite is also 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series.

Oregon at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
For the first time in years, the Civil War means something to the people of Oregon, but has very few ramifications outside of the state. However, both teams are coming off impressive wins, as the Ducks went down to Salt Lake City and pulled off a dramatic last-second victory against Utah. Oregon State thumped Arizona 42-17 last weekend, and they have covered six of their past seven games heading into this rivalry game. The Ducks have covered five straight meetings in Corvallis, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series. The 'over' has hit in 12 of the past 14 in this series, while the 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven at Reser Stadium.

UCLA at California (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
UCLA and Cal will both wrap their seasons up Saturday, as both teams enter play at 4-7 and are coming off setbacks against their biggest rival. Both teams have struggled mightily against the number, as the Bruins are 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games overall and 2-5 ATS in the past seven away from the Rose Bowl. Cal is just 10-22 ATS in their past 32 home games, 0-4 ATS in their past four league games and 0-5 ATS in their past five games in the month of November. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six meetings between these teams. The home team is 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this Golden State rivalry, while the underdog is 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20 meetings. The Bruins are 0-4 ATS in their past four trips to Berkeley.

Utah at Colorado (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)
The Utes look to rebound after a shocking loss to Oregon in the final moments last weekend. That loss set up what amounts to a play-in game for the Pac-12 Championship Game, as the winner takes the South Division title and sets up a battle against the winner of the Apple Cup. Colorado punished Washington State last week to improve to 10-1 ATS in 11 games. The Utes are 13-3 ATS in their past 16 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 12-5 ATS in their past 17 road outings overall. They're 14-6 ATS in the past 20 against teams with a winning record, too. The Buffs are 14-3 ATS in the past 17 meetings overall, 6-1 ATS in the past seven home games and 7-0 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning overall record. The Utes are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. Colorado is a 10-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

Rice at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Stanford has eight victories, but they have no chance at the Pac-12 Championship Game. They look to take out a season's worth of frustration against a non-conference opponent from Rice. The Owls have earned two of their three victories in the past two weekends, winning at Charlotte and at home against Texas-El Paso. The Owls are 4-2-1 ATS in the past seven overall while the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five for Rice and 6-2 in the past eight. For Stanford, they started off 3-0 SU/ATS in their first three games. They were humbled 44-6 at Washington Sept. 30, and that touched off a 1-3 SU/ATS stretch through the end of October. However, over the past four games the Cardinal have resembled the team we have come to expect. They're 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS while winning all for games by 11 or more points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Auburn at Alabama**

-- Another edition of the Iron Bowl will take place Saturday afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. If Auburn had won at Georgia two weeks ago, this game would’ve decided the SEC West. However, with starting QB Sean White playing with a shoulder injury and workhorse RB Kamryn Pettway sidelined with a hamstring injury, Georgia didn’t allow an Auburn first down in the second half en route to a 13-7 win as a 10-point home underdog.

-- Therefore, Auburn (8-3 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) is mostly playing the spoiler role, although an upset win would likely make it a favorite to garner a Sugar Bowl bid. Whatever the case, top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama was installed as a 17.5 or 18-point home favorite with a total of 47 as of late Friday afternoon. Auburn was +600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

-- Alabama (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) has won its six home games while going 4-2 ATS. The Crimson Tide’s best wins this year have come vs. Southern Cal (52-6 at Jerry World), at Ole Miss (48-43 after trailing 24-3 in the second quarter), at Arkansas (49-30), at Tennessee (49-10), vs. Texas A&M (33-14 when the Aggies were unbeaten), at LSU (10-0) and vs. Mississippi State (51-3).

-- Alabama is led by a nasty defense that’s loaded with All-American candidates and future NFL players. The Tide is ranked second nationally in total defense, first against the run and second in scoring (11.4 PPG). Senior DE Jonathan Allen has recorded 46 tackles, two fumble returns for 105 yards and two TDs, 9.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 13 QB hurries, two passes broken up and one blocked field goal.

-- Alabama’s offense is as dynamic as even thanks to true freshman QB Jalen Hurts, who has added the scrambling dynamic to an offense that has typically used a pro-style signal caller. Hurts has completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,139 yards with an 18/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also run for 803 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.7 yards-per-carry average.

-- Alabama has one of the nation’s top WRs in sophomore Calvin Ridley, who has 56 receptions for 647 yards and seven TDs. ArDarius Stewart has 39 catches for 647 yards and six TDs.

-- Damien Harris has rushed for 850 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.4 YPC. Harris is a bruising between-the-tackles runner, while true freshman RB Joshua Jacobs is a speedster who has rushed for 484 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.7 YPC. Jacobs has 11 catches for 123 yards.

-- White did not play in last week’s 55-0 win over Alabama A&M as a 54-point home favorite. Jeremy Johnson got the starting nod and threw for 147 yards and one TD without an interception. Johnson also rushed for 42 yards and two TDs on just six carries.

-- White remains ‘questionable’ for Saturday. He injured the shoulder leading into a Nov. 5 home game vs. Vanderbilt. Prior to that game, White led the SEC in QB rating. He sat out the first half against the Commodores but with his team trailing 13-10 at halftime, White started the second half. He connected on 10-of-13 passes for 106 yards and one TD without an interception to spark AU to a 23-16 victory.

-- Facing Georgia in Athens the next week, White struggled mightily by completing only 6-of-20 throws for 27 yards with one interception. For the season, White has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,644 yards with a 9/3 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 148 yards and two TDs.

-- When Auburn was up 23-16 on Vandy late in the fourth quarter, Kamryn Pettway broke free what appeared to be a long TD run. However, he pulled his hamstring at about the 30 and was tracked down at about the 20. Pettway hasn’t touched the field since. Nevertheless, he is ‘probable’ and will start vs. Alabama, though Gus Malzahn indicated to the media that he might not be at 100 percent. Pettway has rushed for 1,106 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. His back-up, Kerryon Johnson, has run for 823 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.0 YPC average.

-- Auburn has been a road underdog eight times on Malzahn’s watch, posting a 4-4 spread record.

-- Alabama owns a 33-33 spread record as a home favorite during Nick Saban’s 10-year tenure.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for Auburn, 2-1 in its three road assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive AU games. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 48.4 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for the Tide, 5-1 in its home games. Alabama’s games have average combined scores of 51.6 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Florida at Florida State**

-- Florida (8-2 straight up, 4-5-1 against the spread) won the SEC East for a second straight season thanks to last week’s 16-10 win at LSU as a 13.5-point road underdog. The Gators gave up zero points on three of LSU’s red-zone trips, including the final one in the last minute. The Tigers had two shots at a touchdown from the 1-yard line, but they came up short both times including the final play of the game on fourth-and-goal. UF hooked up money-line backers with a payout in the +475 range.

-- After LSU’s holder on a short field goal bobbled the snap to ruin a scoring opportunity, UF took over at its own 2-yard line trailing 7-3 nearly midway through the third quarter, Austin Appleby was given plenty of time to throw out of his own end zone. The grad transfer from Purdue hit true freshman Tyrie Cleveland in stride near midfield. Cleveland shook off his defender and bolted to paydirt for a 98-yard TD catch.

-- With the game tied at 10-10 early in the fourth quarter, UF sophomore RB Jordan Scarlett went to work. He was unstoppable in the final stanza, rushing for most of his 108 yards to set up a pair of field goals from Eddy Pineiro, who went 3-for-3 with makes from 36, 26 and 34 yards out.

-- FSU (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won three in a row since dropping a 37-34 heartbreaker to Clemson at home on Oct. 29. Since then, the Seminoles rallied for a win at N.C. State (24-20) before spanking Boston College (45-7) at home and Syracuse (45-14) at the Carrier Dome.

-- FSU’s two other losses have come at Louisville (63-20) and vs. North Carolina (37-35) on a 54-yard walk-off field goal.

-- FSU is led by junior RB Dalvin Cook, who is sixth in the nation in rushing yards. Cook has run for 1,467 yards and 17 TDs while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He has 27 catches for 400 yards and one TD.

-- FSU has found itself a quality starting QB in redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, who has completed 60.8 percent of his throws for 2,990 yards with a 17/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has run for three TDs.

-- Francois’s favorite target is Travis Rudolph, who has 49 receptions for 744 yards and six TDs. He is without one starting WR in Jesus ‘Bobo’ Wilson, who has missed the last four games and is out for the season after sustaining a foot injury. Wilson had 30 catches for 390 yards and two TDs before getting injured.

-- FSU has won three of its five home games while going 2-2 ATS. The ‘Noles are 1-2 ATS in three games as road favorites this year. During Jimbo Fisher’s seven-year tenure, his teams have compiled a 24-18-1 ATS mark in 43 games as a home ‘chalk.’

-- Florida will be without seven starters – QB Luke Del Rio, LB Jarrad Davis, safety Marcus Maye, safety Nick Washington, LB Alex Anzalone, center Cam Dillard and DE Bryan Cox Jr. Also, both starting guards could be missing. Martez Ivey is ‘doubtful’ and Tyler Jordan is ‘questionable.’

-- Florida has been a road underdog just three times during Jim McElwain’s tenure, going 1-1-1 ATS with one outright victory (last week at LSU).

-- Florida is ranked fourth in the nation in total defense and pass defense. The Gators are third in scoring defense, limiting foes to 13.0 PPG. This unit is without its top three tacklers, however, in Davis, Anzalone and Maye. Nevertheless, they feature the nation’s best combination of cover corners in Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson. Also, the defensive line remains loaded with big-time players like Caleb Brantley, CeCe Jefferson, Jordan Sherit and Joey Ivie.

-- Totals have been a wash for FSU overall (5-5) and at home (2-2). The Seminoles’ games have averaged a combined score of 61.1 points per game. They have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in their last seven contests.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight UF games to improve to 7-3 overall. The Gators have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their four true road assignments. They have watched their games average combined scores of 38.2 points per game.

-- FSU has won three in a row over UF, including last year’s 27-2 win at The Swamp as a 2.5-point road favorite. Cook ran for two fourth-quarter TDs and had at least 130 of his 183 rushing yards in the final stanza.

-- Florida’s last win in the rivalry came in 2012 when it smashed the ‘Noles by a 37-26 count as a seven-point road underdog.

-- Kickoff on ABC is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Easter at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Most books had Georgia favored by 4.5 points vs. Georgia Tech as of early Friday night. The Bulldogs have beaten the Yellow Jackets in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings, going 5-2 ATS during this span. UGA has won three in a row since losing to Florida, going 2-1 ATS. Ga. Tech is 14-11-1 ATS as a road underdog during Paul Johnson’s tenure, going 2-1 ATS in three such spots this year, including an outright win at Va. Tech.

-- Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog during Derek Mason’s three-year tenure. The Commodores are 7.5-point ‘dogs Saturday night vs. Tennessee for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick on The SEC Network. They are off a 38-17 win over Ole Miss as 9.5-point home puppies. Kyle Shurmur threw for 273 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Ralph Webb rushed for 123 yards and three TDs on 20 carries.

-- Tennessee gave up 740 yards of total offense in last week’s 63-37 win over Missouri. The Volunteers were fortunate to win the turnover battle 4-0 and they covered the number as 17.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Josh Dobbs threw for 223 yards and three TDs while also rushing for 190 yards and two TDs on 10 attempts.

-- Ole Miss is vying to get bowl eligible in the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State in Oxford. As of early Friday night, most spots had the Rebels favored by 8.5 points with a total of 69. The Bulldogs are off a 58-42 home loss to Arkansas. QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 23-of-33 passes for 328 yards and two TDs without an interception in the losing effort. Fitzgerald also rushed for 131 yards and four TDs on 17 carries.

-- Since taking over for the injured Chad Kelly, Ole Miss true freshman QB Shea Patterson has gone 1-1 in a pair of starts. Patterson has connected on 45-of-84 passes (53.6%) for 560 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 96 yards on 28 attempts.

-- Kentucky (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) is a 26-point underdog at Louisville. The Wildcats are bowl eligible for the first time during Mark Stoops’s tenure. They own an 8-9 spread record in 17 games as road ‘dogs on Stoops’s watch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NCAAF action report: Rivalry Week a bookmakers dream
By PATRICK EVERSON

Week 13 of the college football season is full of huge games, but some of those games haven’t had much line movement at all, which is a bookmaker’s dream. We talk about where the action is with Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget on Fremont Street in Las Vegas, and Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas on the Strip.

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes – Open: -6.5; Move: -6

The winner of this contest stands a great chance of paving its way into the four-team College Football Playoff, even though Penn State could end up representing the Big Ten East in the conference title game when the dust settles, thanks largely to its win over Ohio State.

The Buckeyes (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) bounced back from that shocker with four straight wins, narrowly avoiding another huge upset last week with a 17-16 victory at Michigan State as a lofty 20.5-point favorite. Michigan (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) was dealt an upset blow at Iowa two weeks ago, then got more than it expected while fending off Indiana 20-10 last week as a heavy 24-point home chalk.

“This game just moved down to 6 everywhere,” Miller said Friday afternoon. “We’ve got great two-way action on it, looking really good. There’s no big liability right now. Parlays are going both ways, teasers both ways. It’s the perfect, perfect game for booking.”

Miller indicated it’s mostly the public on this game so far, while adding an interesting contrast to the line on Saturday’s game: In the Golden Nugget’s Games of the Year released in July, Ohio State was a 3-point home chalk, and in the Nugget’s national championship matchups, in the unlikely event of a Wolverines-Buckeyes meeting, Ohio State was -3.5 on a neutral field.

At the Wynn, Ohio State opened -6 Sunday night, and it just over an hour went to 6.5, then back down to 6. It hit 6.5 again on Tuesday but has been at 6 since Wednesday, with the Buckeyes’ price fluctuating between -110 and -120.

Whether this line pops back up may depend on the status of Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight, who is nursing a collarbone injury suffered at Iowa and did not play against Indiana.

“If Speight doesn’t play, this line’s gonna elevate, probably to 7, maybe even 7.5,” Avello said, noting John O’Korn didn’t look great last week, though it might not even matter. “If you look back at the history in this game, Michigan’s had a difficult time beating Ohio State. One time over the last 11 years or so (in 2011).”

But that won’t hinder the handle on this huge matchup at The Horseshoe.

“It’s gonna be a big betting game, that’s for sure,” Avello said.

No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: 17.5; Move: none

Auburn has won six of its last seven to move to 8-3 SU and ATS, but that didn’t keep archrival Alabama (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) from being a solid favorite in this year’s Iron Bowl. But the line hasn’t moved an inch at the Golden Nugget, while action has been good on both sides.

“This is another great example of a great game to book. We haven’t moved off 17.5 at all,” Miller said. “Another game to just back and watch it all. The sharps are waiting on this one. You know how the public backs Alabama.”

Avello posted ‘Bama -17 on Sunday night, and within about an hour, it went to 17.5, where it has stayed all week. The rivalry at hand kept this line from opening higher.

“Tradition. When these two teams meet, it’s usually a tough game,” he said.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 12 Southern California Trojans – Open: -17; Move: -18

Southern Cal is in traditional form, while Notre Dame is a hot mess. The Trojans enter this annual rivalry having won seven in a row (6-1 ATS), including a road win over previously unbeaten Washington two weeks ago and a 36-14 win at UCLA last week laying 13 points.

The Fighting Irish (4-7 SU and ATS) assured themselves of no bowl big with their 34-31 loss to Virginia Tech as a 1-point home fave last week. This is another contest that was among Miller’s Games of the Year, and the contrast is stark – much in favor of the Golden Nugget.

“In the Games of the Year, we opened USC -5, and they slammed us on Notre at +5 and +4. So we got the best of it for that game,” Miller said. “Now, the game’s -18 USC. The sharps didn’t do so good on that one (in July). Of course, we didn’t figure Notre Dame would be this bad.

“On top of that, USC is on a really nice run, one of the hottest teams in college football.”

No. 22 Utah Utes at No. 9 Colorado Buffaloes – Open: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -10

A win will send Colorado to the Pac-12 title game as the South Division champion, while a loss would give USC that spot on a tiebreaker, since the Trojans beat the visiting Buffaloes a few weeks ago.

Colorado (9-2 SU) has won five in a row since that setback, including a big 38-24 victory over Washington State last week as a 6-point home chalk, and the Buffs are No. 1 in the nation with a 10-1 ATS mark.

Meanwhile, Utah (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) suffered a stunning loss to a down Oregon team last week, falling 30-28 as an 11-point home fave.

“You wouldn’t think (the number) would be that high. At the beginning of the year, it certainly wouldn’t have been,” Avello said, noting Colorado’s surprising rise through the ranks this season.

Kentucky Wildcats at No. 11 Louisville Cardinals – Open: -23.5; Move: -24; Move: -26; Move: 26.5

Louisville (9-2 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) threw its legitimate playoff hopes in the dumpster with a 36-10 loss at Houston in Week 12 as a 17-point favorite. Kentucky (6-5 SU and ATS) is coming off a 49-13 rout of FCS foe Austin Peay laying 46 at home.

“We’re a solid 26.5,” Miller said, while noting an interesting dynamic, despite the line standing 3 points above the opening number. “A lot of parlay liability on Kentucky. That’s all squares. The ticket count is big on Kentucky.”

Other games that have seen sizable moves at Wynn Las Vegas, which posts college lines each Sunday, earlier than most Las Vegas books:

• Temple, tied for the best ATS record in the nation at 10-1 to go with its 8-3 SU mark, is a 21-point home chalk against East Carolina, after opening at 18.5. Playing into that is the questionable status of ECU quarterback Philip Nelson.
• West Virginia opened a 9-point fave at Iowa State and has been bet down to -7, even.
• Indiana is up to -20.5 at home against Purdue, after starting as a 15.5-point favorite.
• The Virginia-Virginia Tech line has bounced up and down a bit, starting at VaTech -19.5 Sunday night, going as low as 17.5 within an hour, and creeping back up to 18.5 by Wednesday.
• Tennessee was bet down to -7.5 by Friday for its game at Vanderbilt, after opening at 10.5.
• Wyoming opened -1 at New Mexico and quickly went to -3, where the number has remained all week.

 

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Michigan at Ohio State

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 45.5)

Second-ranked Ohio State hosts No. 4 Michigan on Saturday with major playoff implications on the line in the 113th edition of the storied rivalry. The Buckeyes have dominated the series over the last decade, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, including seven straight games in Columbus, and can send a clear message to the College Football Playoff committee by beating their bitter rival for the fifth straight time overall.

Ohio State has the most difficult path to the Big Ten championship game out of the three remaining teams in contention, as the Buckeyes must beat the Wolverines and hope No. 7 Penn State falls to Michigan State, but they could still earn a berth in the CFP for the second time in three years with another win against Michigan. The Wolverines are in control of their own destiny and could claim the Big Ten East title by earning their first win in Columbus since a 38-26 victory on Nov. 18, 2000. Michigan's quarterback situation is still murky as starter Wilton Speight, who missed the 20-10 win against Indiana with a shoulder injury, and John O'Korn have split the first-team reps in practice this week. O'Korn struggled mightily in his first career start for Michigan last weekend but the Wolverines boast one of the top defenses in the country and defensive coordinator Don Brown - who has a stellar track record of stopping spread running attacks - hopes to put the clamps on an Ohio State offense that has scored 42 points in each of the last three games in the series.

TV: Noon ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: Ohio State opened as 7-point home favorites and that number dropped on the first day of betting to 6.5 and has been holding there since. The total hit the board at 47.5 and has been bet down to two full points to 45.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Michigan - QB Wilton Speight (questionable, collarbone), K Quinn Nordin (questionable, leg), WR Jack Wangler (out indefinitely, suspension), LB Jared Wangler (out indefinitely, suspension)

Ohio State - WR Dontre Wilson (probable, undisclosed), OL Kevin Feder (questionable, foot), DL Tracy Sprinkle (questionable, leg), DT Malik Barrow (questionable, illness), WR Corey Smith (questionable, undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: The playing conditions at Ohio Stadium are expected to be favorable, with partly cloudy skies expected and temperatures in the low 40s at kickoff. Winds will blow out of the west.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: The end of the Big 10 regular season will conclude Saturday with the matchup of match ups. Second ranked Ohio State will host third-ranked Michigan in a high-stakes BCS deciding affair. Which team will dictate the first-half to apply pressure to the opposing offense? - Zack Cimini

ABOUT MICHIGAN (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS, 7-4 O/U): O'Korn, who made 16 starts with Houston before transferring to Ann Arbor after his sophomore season, finished 7-of-16 for 59 yards against Indiana, which was the lowest passing output by a Michigan quarterback since 2001. De'Veon Smith was named the Big Ten's co-offensive Player of the Week after racking up a career-high 158 yards to go along with two touchdowns on Senior Day, and the Warren, Ohio native hopes to duplicate the performance in his home state. "This is my last regular-season game and my last game against Ohio State so I'm going to leave it all on the field," Smith told reporters. "There's a lot more at stake and you have to ramp it up."

ABOUT OHIO STATE (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Mike Weber, who was once committed to the Wolverines before choosing the Buckeyes on signing day, ran for 111 yards in the 17-16 win against Michigan State to become the third freshman in program history to rush for 1,000 yards. Quarterback J.T. Barrett was held to 86 passing yards against the Spartans but added 105 on the ground for his second 100-yard rushing game of the season. Senior center Pat Elflein was named a finalist for the Outland Trophy, awarded to the nation's most outstanding interior lineman, while Cameron Johnston was picked as one of three finalists for the Ray Guy Award, given to the top punter in college football.

TRENDS:

Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 8-1 in Wolverines last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 17-4 in Buckeyes last 21 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent are taking the road pup while the over in this battle of top 25 teams is split 50/50.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michigan at Ohio State
By ASA

2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 3-8 2-6 5-6 5-6
Indiana 5-6 3-5 5-6 4-7
Iowa 7-4 5-3 5-6 4-7
Maryland 5-6 2-6 3-8 4-7
Michigan 10-1 7-1 5-6 7-4
Michigan State 3-8 1-7 4-7 4-7
Minnesota 8-3 5-3 4-5-2 5-6
Nebraska 9-2 6-2 6-3-2 2-9
Northwestern 5-6 4-4 6-5 3-8
Ohio State 10-1 7-1 6-5 5-6
Penn State 9-2 7-1 7-3-1 8-3
Purdue 3-8 1-7 4-7 9-2
Rutgers 2-9 0-8 4-7 6-5
Wisconsin 9-2 6-2 9-2 4-7

Michigan at Ohio State – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Line – Ohio State -7, Total of 48
Current Line (as of Wednesday) – Ohio State -6.5, Total of 45.5

SERIES HISTORY

Ohio State has won 10 of the last 11 in this heated rivalry. Michigan last beat OSU back in 2011 and their last win at the Horseshoe was way back in 2000. The Buckeyes have won 8 of the last 9 here at home in this series dating back to 1998. Six of those eight wins have come by double digits. The Wolverines own the series edge with a 58-47-6 mark.

LAST WEEK

Ohio State – The Buckeyes traveled to Michigan State and escaped with a 17-16 win. The conditions were less than ideal with strong winds and cold temps. Because of the windy conditions, both teams relied heavily on the run with 80 combined rushing attempts for the game. The two combined to complete only 18 total passes the entire contest. Michigan State scored just 20 seconds into the game to take a quick 7-0 lead on two play drive that accounted for 75 of their 334 total yards. The two teams went on to score just 24 points the final 59:40 of the game.

Ohio State took their first lead of the game 17-10 on a TD with 5:33 remaining in the third quarter. The Spartans scored a TD with 4:40 remaining in the game to seemingly tie the game at 17 apiece. However rather than kick the extra point, MSU decided to go for two to try and take the lead but failed. Sparty did have one final chance as they took over at their own 20 yard line with 2:00 minutes remaining but a Tyler O’Connor interception ended their final drive of the game. The tight final score was indicative of how the game played out as both teams ended the came close to even in first downs, total yardage, and time of possession.

Michigan - The Wolverines played their final home tilt of the season vs an improved Indiana team last Saturday in a snowstorm. The Wolverines squeaked out a 20-10 win to improve to 10-1 on the season. Starting QB Wilton Speight was sidelined for Michigan and his replacement John O’Korn struggled. He completed only 7 passes for just 59 yards which was Michigan’s lowest passing total in a game since 2001. The weather conditions were poor with snow and wind so Harbaugh decided to rely almost exclusively on the running game rolling up 225 yards on 50 rushing attempts.

Indiana actually led 7-3 at half but Michigan “exploded” for 17 points in the third quarter to take a 20-10 lead heading into the final stanza. Indiana was unable to mount any type of a threat in the 4th quarter as the teams went scoreless. The Michigan defense continued to dominate as they have all season allowing IU to cross midfield only TWICE the entire game, both of which led to the Hoosiers only points of the game (a TD and a FG).

THE GAME

This is the most anticipated match up in this series since these two meet in 2006 when these two were ranked #1 and #2 in the country. These two teams are currently ranked #2 (OSU) and #3 (Michigan) in the College Football Playoff poll. If Michigan wins, they will play in the Big Ten Championship game the following Saturday. If Ohio State wins, they need Penn State to lose at home vs Michigan State to make it to the Big Ten title game. The winner is pretty much assured a spot in College Football’s Final Four.

Most people obviously feel these are the two top teams in the Big Ten and the stats bear that out. The Wolverines and Buckeyes rank either first or second in the conference in total offense, total defense, scoring offense, scoring defense, rush offense, pass defense, and yardage differential. On a national scale the teams stack up very evenly as well. OSU is #5 in scoring offense, Michigan is #11. The Wolverines are #1 in scoring defense and the Buckeyes are #3. As you can expect, these coaches and teams will be pulling out all the stops on Saturday.

Michigan All American DB Jabril Peppers said this week that, “Everything is coming out of the bag this weekend,” which isn’t a huge surprise. Both teams will see formations on each side of the ball they haven’t seen this season. Trick plays should be abundant.

Michigan has NOT ruled out Speight for this game. It was reported last week that he would be out for the season with a collarbone injury but that was never confirmed. Speight actually suited up and threw passes in warm ups but never took a snap last week vs Indiana. We wouldn’t rule out that this is simply window dressing by Harbaugh and company to keep Urban Meyer guessing. You get the point. We should be in for a barnburner on Saturday.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

Ohio State has covered 7 of the last 9 in this series. At home, the Buckeyes are 12-5 ATS dating back to 1982. Last time OSU was favored by less than a TD at home vs anyone was back in 2012 and that just happened to be vs this Michigan team when OSU was a 4 point favorite and win 26-21. Going all the way back to the 1992 season, Ohio State is 21-10 ATS overall as a home favorite of a TD or less.

This is the first time Michigan has been an underdog this season. The last 11 times they’ve been a dog in this series, they’ve lost all 11 games outright (3-8 ATS). The last 22 times Michigan has been a road underdog overall (not just vs OSU) they are 3-19 SU (8-14 ATS).

The winner of this match up has scored at least 30 points in 8 of the last 12 meetings. From 1980 to 1999, this was a “slobber-knocker”, defensive series with only 3 games out of 20 topping 50 total points. Their average total points scored from 1980-1999 was just 37. From 2000-2015 these two have topped 50 points eight times. The average total points scored during that span was 53.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Game of the Day: Auburn at Alabama

No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-17.5, 47)

Top-ranked Alabama looks to complete an undefeated regular season and move closer to capturing the No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings when it hosts bitter rival Auburn on Saturday in an SEC contest. The Crimson Tide have been a dominant squad throughout the entire season while the No. 16 Tigers may have leading rusher Kamryn Pettway back after he missed the last two games with a leg injury.

While Pettway, a junior, appears ready for the Iron Bowl, the status of sophomore quarterback Sean White (shoulder) remains in doubt and it could be senior Jeremy Johnson behind center for Auburn. "Sean White is our quarterback," Tigers coach Gus Malzahn said on a conference call. "But he has to be healthy enough to run the whole offense and needs to be healthy enough to protect himself." That certainly sounds like a good idea against an Alabama defense that ranks second nationally in total defense (252.6 yards per game) and with 40 sacks, and will be extra pumped up to see its fierce rival. "I think this is one of the greatest rivalry games in the country," Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban said in a press conference. "I know it means a lot to a lot of people in this state as well as nationally. For the competitors in the game, they probably enjoy this competition, this kind of rivalry as much as any game that they play."

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Crimson Tide opened as 18-point home favorites and that number has been brought down to 17 and has remained there since midweek. The total hit the board as 47 and hasn’t moved all week.

INJURY REPORT:

Auburn - DB Joshua Holsey (questionable, ankle), WR Stanton Truitt (questionable, ankle), QB Sean White (questionable, shoulder), OL Prince Michael Sammons (questionable, foot), LB Tre’ Williams (probable, undisclosed), DB Carlton Davis (probable, undisclosed), FB Kamryn Pittway (probable, leg), FB Chandler Cox (probable, leg)

Alabama - OL Korren Kirven (probable, shoulder), RB Bo Scarbrough (probable, knee), OL Cam Robinson (probable, shoulder)

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for mostly sunny skies at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Temperatures will be in the mid 60’s with winds from the north west ranging from 7-12 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: One of college football’s fiercest rivalries continues Saturday when Alabama hosts Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Win or lose, the Tide is guaranteed a spot in the SEC championship game next week, while the Tigers enter looking to avenge losses the last two seasons in this series. Expect a competitive contest from Auburn as they have out-yarded opponents 188 YPG since October, while Gus Malzahn is 17-7 SU in his career when playing off a win of 7 or more points - with none of the seven losses by more than 16 points - Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT AUBURN (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Having Pettway (1,106 rushing yards) back to team with sophomore Kerryon Johnson (823) gives the Tigers the arsenal to test Alabama's top-rated run defense that allows only 68.9 yards per game. White avoids mistakes with only three interceptions while passing for 1,644 yards and nine touchdowns, while Jeremy Johnson hasn't played much this season with 25 passing attempts - one being his 20th career touchdown throw. Auburn ranks seventh in scoring defense (14.3 points per game) and 18th in total defense (334.5), and the unit is receiving stellar play from junior outside linebacker Carl Lawson (team-best nine sacks) and senior cornerback Joshua Holsey (team-high three interceptions).

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS, 5-6 O/U): The defense has been stellar and ranks second in scoring defense (11.4) with senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (seven sacks) rated a sure top-five pick in the next NFL draft. Senior outside linebacker Tim Williams leads the unit with eight sacks, senior outside linebacker Ryan Anderson has 14 1/2 tackles for losses and sophomore strong safety Minkah Fitzpatrick owns a team-best four interceptions. Alabama averages 40.3 points per game behind freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has accounted for 30 touchdowns (19 passing, 11 rushing) and thrown for 2,168 yards and added 803 on the ground.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
* Under is 9-2 in Tigers last 11 conference games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent are taking the road dog while 57 percent favour the over in this battle of SEC rivals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFP still up in the air

Rivalry Week Might Not Sort Much Out For Playoff

While Week 11 saw Nos. 2-4 in the College Football Playoff all lose, Week 12 in college football was fairly chalk at the top other than Louisville getting blown out last Thursday night at Houston to end the Cardinals' national championship hopes and slightly dent Lamar Jackson's Heisman chances.

The new College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings Tuesday had the same Top 4: Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson. Washington moved up to No. 5 and Wisconsin No. 6. The Tide remain heavy -150 favorites to repeat.

This is the final full weekend of action around the country and it's rivalry weekend. But other than the game in Columbus, we still are not likely to have much clarity for the playoff by Saturday night.

Here's a look at some of the key games and their current odds.

No. 5 Washington at No. 23 Washington State (+6): The Apple Cup is Friday in Pullman, and Pac-12 officials are praying that the Huskies win this game or the conference might be the first to miss the playoff two years in a row. The winner takes the Pac-12 North and plays either No. 9 Colorado or No. 12 USC in the Pac-12 title game. The Buffs get there with a win Saturday at home vs. No. 22 Utah. A loss gives the South title to the red-hot Trojans, a team that Washington no doubt would like another shot at after losing convincingly to USC in Seattle.

No. 13 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama (-17): Does anyone actually give the Tigers a shot here? A loss probably still keeps the Tide in the Top 4 since every other team in the country -- other than MAC school Western Michigan -- has at least one defeat. The only way Alabama is likely out of the playoff is if it loses to Auburn and then to No. 15 Florida next week in the SEC Championship Game rematch.

No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State (-6.5): This is arguably the most important game in the history of the College Football Playoff and it's the latest in the regular season of the CFP era that two teams this highly ranked have squared off. What's the best result for the Big Ten? A Buckeyes win doesn't even get them to the Big Ten title game if No. 7 Penn State (12.5) beats visiting Michigan State later Saturday. A Wolverines win gets them to the conference championship game against either No. 6 Wisconsin or No. 16 Nebraska. It most likely will be the Badgers, who are -14.5 at home vs. Minnesota. Wisconsin is in with a win or Huskers loss Friday at Iowa. The Buckeyes are -300 second-favorites to win the national title. The Big Ten could be in position to have two playoff teams.

No. 15 Florida at No. 14 Florida State (-7): Could the Gators somehow climb all the way to the Top 4 with a win in Tallahassee and then upset of Alabama next week? Hard to see, but UF certainly would have as good a resume as anyone. However, Florida again will be missing several injured starters on Saturday, including QB Luke Del Rio, and the Gators are just 1-6 against FSU since Jimbo Fisher took over the Noles. Might this be his final home game with the LSU rumors swirling?

South Carolina at No. 4 Clemson (-24): The Tigers have the easiest path to the playoff. Just beat the mediocre Gamecocks and then take care of business most likely against unranked Virginia Tech (if it beats Virginia on Saturday) in the ACC title game -- which was moved to Orlando this year. Clemson is in good shape to move out of the No. 4 spot and avoid a possible rematch with Alabama in the semifinals as well since either Ohio State or Michigan will lose this Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Iron Bowl'

Rivalry week features a hugh SEC showdown when the Auburn Tigers (8-3 SU/ATS) visiting Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0, 8-3 ATS) in the Iron Bowl. Defense the moniker for Crimson Tide allowing a lowly 11.4 points/game on 253.1 total yards along with an unstoppable offense lead by QB Jalen Hurts tossing 2139 passing yards, 18 TD while gridding out 803 rushing yards, 11 TD will be difficult to beat in confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Tide are on a 26-1 stretch in front of the friendly crowd. However, 'Bama' facing another bulky line (-18) this week you do bet Nick Saban's troops at some risk. Tide struggled against the betting line in those twenty-seven home games posting a vig-losing 13-13-1 record against the betting line. That said, Alabama has had the edge last five encounters with Auburn going 4-1 SU/ATS, including a 29-13 road win last year handing Tigers 14.5 points of offense.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Rivalry Week'

A huge rivalry week showdown takes place at 'The Horseshoe' when Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1, 6-5 ATS) plays host to Big 10 rival Michigan Wolverines (10-1, 5-6 ATS). Both squads enter off lack-luster performances. The Buckeyes barely survided at Michigan State last week walking off 17-16 winners falling well short at the betting window as 20-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Wolverines are off a ho-hum 20-10 win against Indiana and like Buckeyes did not cover the 24.0 point spot handed Hoosiers.

The Buckeyes' are handing Wolverines -6.5 points of offense. With good reason, the last time Michigan beat the Buckeyes was 2011 at Michigan Stadium and with last years 42-13 spanking in Ann Arbor the Wolverines hit the field 1-11 last twelve meetings vs their bitter rival (3-9 ATS). Do note, wins have been hard to come by for Michigan in Columbus, the Wolverines have lost seven straight at this venue (2-5 ATS) and are 1-7 dating back to 2000 with a 3-5 record against the betting line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football four-point stance: Week 13 pointspread picks and predictions
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

There’s a damn good reason why the Michigan-Ohio State total dropped from its opening price of 51.5 to 45.5 in such a short amount of time.

Sure, the cold temperatures (high of 45 degrees) and nine mile-per-hour winds may have something to do with the line movement, but this year’s installment of “The Game” features two of the country’s elite defenses, as Michigan enters the season finale ranked first in the country in both scoring defense (10.9 pts/gm) and total defense (246.0 yds/gm) while Ohio State ranks third in scoring defense (13.0 pts/gm) and fourth in total defense (280.0 yds/gm).

Additionally, you have to consider both game flow and situational analysis when analyzing the Michigan-Ohio State total. For starters, both programs are vying for a spot in college football’s four-team playoff, so don’t be surprised if the Wolverines and Buckeyes institute a cautious approach early in the game as they feel one another out. Think of this as a highly anticipated title fight between two skilled tacticians who use the early rounds as an opportunity to scout the opposition.

Granted, all relevant trends for this game point to an over, as Michigan has seen the over hit in six of its last seven road games and 12 of its last 15 outings following a win, while the over has cashed in four of Ohio State’s last five home dates.

But I believe those trends will prove meaningless come Saturday afternoon in Columbus.

Pick: UNDER 45.5


East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls

When: Saturday, November 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Temple -20.5

Don’t look now, but the Owls are riding a five-game winning streak that has featured an average margin of victory of 18.0 points per game thanks to a stellar defensive unit that is surrendering an average of just 278.0 total yards (third in NCAA) and 18.5 total points per game (14th in NCAA) this season.

As it that wasn’t enough of a selling point, Matt Rhule’s upstart Temple program has covered the number in each of its last ten outings and is now 20-6 ATS over its last 26 games overall.

2016 hasn’t been kind to the Pirates of East Carolina, who have been shellacked by 21 or more points in each of their last three outings (at Tulsa, vs. SMU, vs. Navy) while failing to cover the number in eight of their last nine starts. Further, with just three total wins on the season, East Carolina is set to miss out on bowl season for the second straight year, so don’t be surprised if the Pirates have already checked out the remainder of their season.

Be advised that East Carolina is just 9-23 ATS over its last 32 games overall and 4-19 ATS over its last 23 conference showdowns, while Temple is a solid 5-0 ATS over its last five home dates and 23-8 ATS over its last 31 conference matchups.

Pick: Temple -20.5


Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores

When: Saturday, November 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Tennessee -7.5

This game comes down to one critical factor: Motivation.

As it pertains to Tennessee, how much motivation will Butch Jones and company have to show up 100 percent prepared and ready to execute now that the Florida Gators have locked up the SEC East title?

In regards to Vanderbilt, Saturday evening marks the Commodores’ final opportunity to earn a bowl berth via a sixth victory, so expect a performance reminiscent of last week’s 38-17 upset win over Mississippi as 9.5-point underdogs when Vandy was in a similar must-win situation.

Be advised that Tennessee is just 7-21-1 ATS over its last 29 games following an ATS win while Vanderbilt is 14-6 ATS over its last 20 games played in the month of November. Additionally, take note that the home team is 4-1 ATS over the last five games played between these two programs.

Pick: Vanderbilt +7.5


Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars

When: Saturday, November 26 at 10:15 p.m. ET
Spread: BYU -18

This in-state rivalry has “Blowout” written all over it thanks to a variety of reasons. For starters, BYU has emerged victorious in six of its last seven outings and has been on cruise control during the month of November with wins over Cincinnati (20-3), Southern Utah (37-7) and Massachusetts (51-9), which moved the Cougars to 8-3 ATS on the season.

On the flip side, Utah State has dropped four straight contests and seven of its last eight matchups overall while failing to cover the number in each of its last six outings. To make matters worse for Aggies fans, Utah State’s five-year bowl streak has come to an end this season, so you can’t help but wonder how much gas this program has remaining in the tank with one final game left to play.

From a trends perspective, note that Utah State is just 1-7 ATS over its last eight road dates and 3-13 ATS over its last 16 games overall, while BYU is 8-3 ATS over its last 11 games overall and 10-4 ATS over its last 14 home games.

Pick: BYU -18

Last week: 1-3 ATS
Season: 26-22 ATS (.541)

 

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 13

It's rivalry week in the college football landscape and with a schedule full slate of intriguing games, it can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.

Kentucky at No.11 Louisville (-26, 74)

* Stephen Johnson was unable to practice all of last week and is supposed to be available only in an emergency situation due to a leg injury, but coach Mark Stoops made the move to his junior quarterback to spark the Wildcats' dramatic offensive flurry. Benjamin Snell Jr., who holds the school record for rushing yards by a freshman with 1,006 after running for 152 last weekend, and sophomore Stanley Williams (1,072) lead the SEC's third-ranked rushing offense and are the first pair of 1,000-yard rushers in school history. Snell also holds the program's freshman record with 12 rushing touchdowns and needs one more to match the most by a Wildcat since Artose Pinner in 2002.

* In addition to the penalties and sacks they allowed against Houston, the Cardinals' FBS-best offense turned in their worst scoring output since a 14-7 loss to North Carolina in 2011 and a season-low 312 total yards overall. Heisman Trophy frontrunner Lamar Jackson predictably suffered as a result of all the pressure he faced, as the sophomore quarterback managed a season-low 33 yards on 25 carries after rushing for 338 yards combined in his previous two contests. Senior tight end Cole Hikutini was one of Louisville's bright spots against the Cougars, scoring for the third straight game and fourth time in five contests to take the team lead with seven receiving touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 23.5-point home favorites and the line rose throughout the week to sit at the current number of -26. The total opened at 75 and came down a full point to 74.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
* Over is 10-1 in Wildcats last 11 non-conference games.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Notre Dame at No.12 Southern California (-17.5, 56.5)

* Kizer has been depending on sophomore Equanimeous St. Brown to make the big catches and he's handled that role well, especially considering he caught one pass all of last season. St. Brown, a Southern California native, has caught 51 passes for 867 yards and eight touchdowns, and his role has expanded even more recently as second-leading receiver Torii Hunter Jr has missed the last two games with a knee injury. Kevin Stepherson has also had a solid freshman year for the Fighting Irish, and C.J. Sanders is another young receiver from the Los Angeles area who could be pumped for a big game in front of friends and family.

* Davis missed three games with an ankle injury and wasn't much of a factor in the first game back, but against UCLA last weekend he looked more like the runner who produced back-to-back 100-yard efforts midway through the season against Utah and Arizona State. Having a healthy Davis to compliment Jones only forces defense to gamble more, opening up lanes and creases on play-action and limiting pressure when Darnold does drop straight back in the pocket. Davis suffered a season-ending ankle injury against the Fighting Irish as a freshman in 2013, came back with 81 rushing yards and a touchdown as a sophomore and another 52 last season on seven carries.

LINE HISTORY: The Trojans opened the week as 17-point home favorites and the spread was bumped up to 17.5 midweek. The total opened at 57.5 and went up to 58 before fading to 56 late in the week.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Trojans are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 7-0 in Trojans last 7 games overall.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Michigan State at No. 7 Penn State (-12.5, 54.5)

* Scott ran for a career-high 160 yards on 19 carries and added 76 more on receptions against the Buckeyes last week, and the sophomore has 935 yards and a 5.6 average this season. After rushing for 336 yards and two touchdowns on 73 carries in the first six games, Scott has rushed for 599 yards and four TDs on 95 carries in his last five games. Due to a combination of youth and injuries, Michigan State has had a different starting lineup in every game this season, but the defense held the Buckeyes to season lows in points (17), total offense (310 yards) and passing (86 yards) last week.

* First-year offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead has the offense humming, averaging 39.7 points during the Nittany Lions’ seven-game winning streak, as quarterback Trace McSorley (2,600 yards passing, 359 yards rushing, 23 total TDs, five interceptions) is on track to break Penn State's record for total offense in a season. Barkley continues to lead the Big Ten in rushing yards (1,205), all-purpose yards (1,538) and touchdowns (14), and the sophomore has rushed for 825 yards and a 6.3 average in his last six games. Tight end Mike Gesicki set a program record for receptions in a season by a tight end, hauling in five at Rutgers to bring his season total to 42.

LINE HISTORY: The Nittany Lions opened the betting week as 12.5- home favorites, were bet up to 13 by midweek, and faded down to 12 by Friday morning. The total opened at 54.5 and has been bet up a full point to 55.5

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Nittany Lions are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Nittany Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Over is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings.

Minnesota at No. 6 Wisconsin (-14.5, 44)

* Quarterback Mitch Leidner threw four touchdowns with no interceptions against Indiana State on Sept. 10 but has thrown two touchdowns with eight interceptions since that outing. Last weekend, Leidner was held under 200 yards passing for the fifth time in his last six games, but the Golden Gophers defense recorded seven sacks in a 29-12 win over Northwestern. Shannon Brooks registered 73 rushing yards and 33 receiving yards, while Drew Wolitarsky caught a TD pass, giving him four of the team's seven scoring receptions.

* The Badgers have allowed 13.4 points per game this season - fifth best in the nation - and have given up more than 20 points only once. Moreover, two of their three highest-scoring games of the season have come in their last two affairs - a 48-3 rout of Illinois and a 49-20 victory against Purdue. Corey Clement and Bradrick Shaw combined for 35 carries for 180 yards and three touchdowns against the Boilermakers, while Bart Houston and Alex Hornibrook were a collective 12-of-15 for 191 yards with two scores.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Badgers 14-point home favorites and the line was bumped up to 14.5. The total opened at 44 and hasn’t moved all week.

TRENDS:

* Golden Gophers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Golden Gophers last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Wisconsin.
* Over is 14-2 in the last 16 meetings.

No. 25 Navy at Southern Methodist (7, 68)

* Worth had six rushing TDs in the first five games of the season but has 16 in the last five, during which he has averaged 157.2 yards on the ground. His nine pass completions over the past two weeks have gone for 224 yards as senior Jamir Tillman (four catches, 122 yards in the two games) has been a big-play option. Shawn White chipped in 150 rushing yards and three TDs against East Carolina as the nation's third-ranked rushing outfit recorded 480.

* The Mustangs amassed 578 total yards and possessed the ball for more than 36 minutes against USF, but three turnovers - two on interceptions thrown by Ben Hicks - hurt the cause. Hicks has been intercepted an AAC-high 13 times, although nine came in the first five games. Sophomore Braeden West rumbled for 120 yards in the loss to USF and needs 12 more to reach 1,000 for the season.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Midshipmen as 7-point road favorites and has held all week. The total opened at 69.5 and has inched down to 60.

TRENDS:

* Midshipmen are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Southern Methodist.

No.18 West Virginia at Iowa State (7, 58)

* Quarterback Skyler Howard is completing 63 percent of his passes for 2,753 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and also has rushed for 326 yards and eight more scores. Junior wide receiver Shelton Gibson, who has caught 37 passes for 766 yards and six touchdowns, leads the Big 12 in yards per reception, averaging 20.7 yards per catch while junior running back Justin Crawford is closing on 1,000 yards rushing with 930 yards on just 122 carries -- a glossy 7.6 yards per carry. Senior linebacker Justin Arndt, who has a team high 63 tackles, including three sacks and 6.0 tackles for loss, and senior cornerback Rasul Douglas, who ranks second in the nation with seven interceptions, lead the Mountaineers' defense.

* The Cyclones set all-time school records for points against a conference opponent (66), margin of victory against a league foe (56), points in a quarter (31) and fell just three points short of most points in a half (48) with 45 in the first 30 minutes in the win over Texas Tech last Saturday. It was the best game this season for Iowa State's two quarterbacks as Jacob Park threw for 285 yards and two touchdowns, while Joel Lanning ran for 171 yards and five scores. Wide receiver Allen Lazard leads the team in receptions (65), receiving yards (915) and touchdown receptions (7) while the defense, which is allowing an average of 25.2 points over the last five games, is led by defensive back Kamari Cotton-Moya who returned a Patrick Mahomes pass 48 yards for a touchdown last week, Iowa State's first pick-six since the 2012 Liberty Bowl.

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 7.5-point road favorite and, despite the spread going as high as 8 at one point on Tuesday, they before fading to 7. The total opened at 57.5 and has been bet up to 58.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 games on grass.
* Over is 9-1-1 in Cyclones last 11 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 4-1 in Cyclones last 5 home games.

No.22 Utah at No.9 Colorado (-10, 53.5)

* The Utes would’ve also been in the thick of the South title talk this week, but last Saturday’s last-second upset loss to visiting Oregon knocked Utah out of the running. The Utes, though, feature the Pac-12’s second-best rushing attack (213.4 yards per game) behind senior running back Joe Williams who has rolled up 1,013 yards and nine touchdowns in five games since “un-retiring” in mid-October. Defensively, the Utes are allowing 23.6 points and 387.3 yards per game and are led by likely conference defensive player of the year Hunter Dimick, a havoc-wreaking senior end who leads the Pac-12 in sacks (14) and tackles for loss (19.5).

* The Buffaloes have won five straight games, which is the program’s longest winning streak since 2002, and are 5-0 at home for the first time since 1994 – their last perfect season at Folsom Field. A good deal of the credit belongs to senior quarterback Sefo Liufau, who last Saturday threw for 345 yards and rushed for a career-high 108 yards and three TDs in a 38-24 win over visiting Washington State to earn Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors. Meanwhile, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week is Colorado reserve safety Nick Fisher, who had six solo tackles, including four on third or fourth down, and one pass defensed last week for a unit which leads the conference in total defense (322.4 yards allowed per game) and pass defense (190.4 yards).

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 10-point road dogs, that number briefly rose to 10.5 then settled back at 10. The total opened at 53.5 and hasn’t moved all week.

TRENDS:

* Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Utes last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Buffaloes last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

South Carolina at No.4 Clemson (-24, 50)

* The Gamecocks have made huge strides defensively in coach Will Muschamp’s first year and are especially tough against the pass. The offense has turned around since freshmen Jake Bentley and Rico Dowdle moved into the starting lineup, and the latter racked up 226 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in last week’s 44-31 win over Western Carolina. Bentley has not thrown a touchdown pass in the last two games, but he has six scoring tosses and just one interception in five contests since taking over as signal-caller.

* After a sluggish start to the season, the Tigers’ offense has topped 450 total yards in seven straight games. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is dangerous running or passing, and Wayne Gallman broke out of a prolonged slump with 161 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries in last week’s 35-13 win at Wake Forest. Clemson ranks among the nation’s best in numerous defensive categories but has shown a weakness against strong running teams, although it was dominant in holding Wake Forest to 197 total yards a week ago.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened the week as huge 23.5-point home favorites and rose up to 24 midweek and held. The over opened at 50 and has held all week.

TRENDS:

* Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Tigers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

No. 17 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (7.5, 54)

* The Volunteers’ hopes of a division title or reaching the playoffs expired during a three-game losing streak to end October, but Tennessee has outscored opponents 167-73 during the past three games. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs leads the SEC in passing touchdowns (24) and points responsible for (204), passing for six touchdowns and rushing for four in the past two weeks. Defensive end Derek Barnett has 11 sacks this season and 31 for his career, one away from matching Reggie White’s school career record.

* The Commodores sat at 2-4 before upsetting Georgia on the road, starting a stretch during which Vanderbilt won three of five, nearly sprung a huge upset at Auburn and routed Ole Miss last week. Running back Ralph Webb is fourth in the SEC in rushing (1,058 yards) and needs 27 yards Saturday to break Zac Stacy’s career school record. Linebacker Zach Cunningham is one of the better defenders in the nation, leading the SEC with 109 tackles and is the first Vanderbilt player since 2000 to record 100-plus tackles in consecutive seasons.

LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as 8-point road favorites and throughout the week that spread was reduced to 7.5. The total opened at 54 and jumped full point to 55.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Commodores are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-0 in Volunteers last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 7-1 in Volunteers last 8 conference games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Rice at No. 24 Stanford (-35, 54.5)

* Redshirt freshman Jackson Tyner is set to make his first career start at quarterback in place of senior Tyler Stehling, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in last Saturday’s 44-24 win over UTEP. Tyner threw for 196 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Miners and will likely share time Saturday with fellow freshman J.T. Granato. Linebacker Emmanuel Ellerbee has 104 tackles to lead the Owls, who opened the season with six straight losses but have won their last two over Charlotte and UTEP.

* McCaffrey has sparked the team’s turnaround, but junior quarterback Keller Chryst has also played well with 456 yards passing and five touchdowns in the past two weeks. Chryst took over for struggling senior Ryan Burns four games ago and has established a solid connection with sophomore receiver JJ Arecega-Whiteside, who has eight catches for 213 yards and a score over the last two games. Defensive end Solomon Thomas has a team-high 50 tackles to lead a unit that allows 20.5 points per game and has been especially tough in the red zone.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as massive 35-point home favorites over the visiting Owls and by Friday that spread was up to 36. The total opened at 54.5 and hasn’t moved all week.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 8-1 in Owls last 9 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 home games.

No. 15 Florida at No. 14 Florida State (-7.5, 45.5)

* Appleby, who is 3-1 as a starter replacing injured Luke Del Rio, has completed 61.8 percent of his passes and was solid the past two games with 345 yards and three touchdown strikes. Sophomore Jordan Scarlett has been a key for the Gators’ offense, rushing for at least 93 yards in four of the last five games and pushing his season total to 725 with six TDs. Florida will likely be without important starters on defense again, including linebackers Jarrad Davis (ankle) and Alex Anzalone (arm), and safety Marcus Maye (arm) – the team’s top three tacklers.

* The Seminoles have been better defensively as the season has gone on, allowing 41 points combined in three consecutive victories, and Cook has rushed for at least 100 yards in seven of the last eight games to become the school’s all-time leading rusher. “This guy is the most explosive player in college football,” Florida coach Jim McElwain told reporters. “. … He’s going to play at the next level for a long time.” Francois needs 10 yards passing to reach 3,000 and has completed 60.8 percent of his passes with 17 touchdown strikes and just five interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles opened the betting week as 6.5-point home favorites over their state rival and by Thursday that number was up to -7.5. The total opened at 45 and has been bumped up to 45.5.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
* Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
* Under is 8-0 in Gators last 8 games in November.
* Under is 10-2 in Seminoles last 12 games in November.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.