Saturday 11/19/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

Florida vs LSU

Bonus Play LSU

Florida has failed to cover in its three true road games. I see that trend continuing here. LSU is coming on while the Gators are racked by injuries to their skill positions, offensive line and at middle linebacker.

The Gators rank 95th in yards gained per game and are 82nd in scoring. I don't put much stock in Austin Appleby. Look for the Tigers to wear down the Gators with the running of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.

Ed Orgeron has been a coaching upgrade on Les Miles. The Tigers have gone 4-1 SU and ATS under Orgeron with their lone loss occurring to Alabama in a 10-0 loss.

During the last two weeks, both teams played on the road against Arkansas. LSU beat the Razorbacks, 38-10, while Florida lost to Arkansas, 31-10.

Florida is a beat-up team while LSU is who we thought they were. They just needed to change coaches.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Stanford vs California

Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #376 Take California Golden Bears over Stanford Cardinal (Saturday 5:30 pm PAC-12 Network)

We will gladly take the points in this rivalry game today in Berkeley. Cal has had a brutal stretch of late losing three straight games but all three of those losses came against better teams that what they will see from Stanford. Cal must win out to be bowl eligible but they have a decent shot at that with two home games remaining against banged up teams. Stanford has been playing bottom feeder teams of late and they have yet to record a quality win since Week 2 of the regular season. This will be a single digit typical rivalry game that goes down to the wire and we will collect with whoever comes out on top.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

USC vs UCLA

Your free pick for Saturday, November 19, 2016 comes in college football as USC and UCLA play in a Pac 12 rivalry showdown. USC has won six in a row, its latest a 26-13 road victory against then-No. 4 Washington, lifting the Trojans back into the coaches poll. The USC run defense has surrendered a combined 102 yards on 57 carries in the last two games. USC is 12-3-1 under the total on natural grass, 20-7-1 under in Pac 12 games. UCLA has QB injuries and is 7-3 under in Pac 12 contests. UCLA is ranked 127th out of 128 Division I teams in rushing. The Under is 23-8-1 in the Bruins last 32 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. And the Under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings.

Play USC/UCLA Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Arkansas vs Mississippi State

Free Pick on Mississippi State -

Mississippi State’s season is on the line in this one. Sitting at 4-6, the Bulldogs need to win out to become bowl eligible. That’s not the only motivating factor here. This is Mississippi State’s final home game of the season, which makes this one mean a little more. I also think we see a big effort after that embarrassing loss to Alabama last week.

I also have major concerns with Arkansas and just what they have left in the tank at this point in the season. The Razorbacks have played 7 ranked teams in their 10 games to this point, including 5 straight. They certainly looked beat up in last week’s game at home against LSU. A spot I thought they would play much better in, given LSU was coming off that crushing loss to Alabama.

I think a big key here is the Bulldogs should be able to get things going offensively. For Mississippi State’s offense to have success, they need to be able to run the football. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Razorbacks. Arkansas is ranked 102nd against the run (217.6 ypg) and are allowing 6.3 yards/carry. The last 4 times the Bulldogs have rushed for 200+ yards, they have scored 47, 38, 56 and 35 points.

Another factor here that I think gets overlooked with Arkansas is this being just their 3rd true road game of the season. Only the second true road game in SEC play. The only previous one came at Auburn, which they lost 56-3.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Razorbacks. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a home loss by 14+ points are just 12-36 (25%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Arkansas is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 450 or more total yards in their last game. Take Mississippi State!