Saturday 11/19/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:00pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#8 AREED (ML=7/2)
#3 OTIS MY MAN (ML=15/1)


AREED - The way this race sets up this gelding will be in perfect position when they enter the stretch. This gelding is certainly on the improve with speed figures of 66, 79, 86 last 3 out. OTIS MY MAN - This horse should be rumbling down the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JIFQUICK (ML=5/2), #6 MAGNUM FORCE (ML=7/2), #5 GENERAL ELECTION (ML=5/1),

JIFQUICK - This gelding hasn't had any recent success in short distance affairs. Difficult to bet on him in this event. MAGNUM FORCE - You always figure that this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he falters most of the time. Will be tough for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the questionable challengers list. GENERAL ELECTION - Tough to wager on any questionable contender in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 AREED to win if we can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6020 Class Rating: 38

FOR NATIVE MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 118 LBS. ALLOWED 1 LBS. ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 GLORIA DE ALABANZA 15/1

# 5 GRAN ISABELLA 8/5

# 3 ENCAPUCHADO 3/1

GLORIA DE ALABANZA is my selection and is a strong value bet given the line at 15/1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST

The Artie Schiller Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#10 HEART TO HEART
#1 JAY GATSBY
#14 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY
#5 BLACKTYPE

This race honors the racing career of Artie Schiller, a turf specialist, who was purchased and raced by William Entenmann of Timber Bay Farm and his daughter Denise Walsh, and was named after Entenmann's childhood friend. He was conditioned for racing by Jimmy Jerkens. At age two the colt won two of his five starts then at age three won five of eight outings including the Jamaica Handicap in which he set a new Belmont Park course record for nine furlongs. At Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, Texas, he was sent off as the betting favorite for the 2004 Breeders' Cup Mile but finished twelfth in the fourteen-horse field.
Racing at age four, Artie Schiller had his best earnings year and most important career win. After winning the 2005 Maker's Mark Mile Stakes and the Bernard Baruch Handicap, he was sent to Belmont Park where under jockey Garrett Gomez he won the Breeders' Cup Mile, defeating runnerup Leroidesanimaux by nearly two lengths. At age five, he made three starts without a win but earned a second in the 2006 Maker's Mark Mile Stakes and a third in the Dixie Stakes. Here in just the 2nd running of "The Schiller" ... #10 HEART TO HEART has won more than half of his 13 starts to date, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in four, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" being embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Irad Ortiz has been in his irons on just one previous occasion, posting a win, en route to a +345% return on investment in the process, and is back today here in Ozone Park for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #1 JAY GATSBY qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 39 - 101 / $167.00 (-$35.00)

BEST BETS: 5 - 8 / $11.80 (-$4.20)

Best Bet: PIER HO TEMPTATION (9th)

Spot Play: BORN TO FIGHT (3rd)


Race 1

(3) SANTIAGO STYLE gets written into this Non-winners of 2 race on the merits of having won seven races for purses under $2,600. It will be interesting to see how he handles the stretch out to the mile track. (4) COOL BREEZE DE VIE has been on a solid run at Monticello and should fit with this group. (1) TALENT SOUP comes off a win at Pocono in decent time for a barn that seems to be heating up slightly.

Race 2

(5) DOUBLE A CASH HALL ships in from Hoosier where he was facing some strong company including Rose Run Parker, who rolled the dice in the Open ranks on the east coast earlier in the year. This seems like a winnable spot. (2) WAITING ON A WOMAN tired on the lead last time but showed more form than in previous weeks. He could be ready to turn things around. (6) ROCK CASHEL is very consistent but I’d need a double-digit price to back him on the win end in this group.

Race 3

(4) BORN TO FIGHT was poised to pounce in the pocket last time at Pocono when he ran up on the leader and made a break. This is far from a strong bunch and he should be sitting close to the front. (8) SHEER FLEX gets class relief and has won at The Meadowlands in the past; dangerous. (1) WILD SMILE was facing tougher at Yonkers and does get sent out by Daley this week.

Race 4

(1) GAMBLER’S TALE never got involved last week but turned in a solid effort in one of these preliminary Dash for the G Notes events two starts back. In a field without a standout, he can take charge. (6) BULLVILLE KYLE showed some late life last time and does own a 1:51 win here this year. (8) CARD SHOCK doesn’t show up every week but is more than capable of beating this field if he feels like it. (3) BROADIES SONG drops in claiming price tonight.

Race 5

(6) THE BRUISER finds a field lacking early speed and on the class drop this week, he might be a good option to steal this race. Barn has started the meet hot with a 6-2-2-1 record. (2) WILD SHOT HANOVER is another with the potential to get aggressive early in the mile. (4) IYQ YQR closed well last time out and could be rounding into form.

Race 6

(7) LET’S FOAL AROUND has reached the basement condition at The Meadowlands and only needs to bring a decent effort to take care of business. (2) RANCOUSY is another who is in cheap; main danger. (3) KONA KID was cruising along on the engine when he broke last time; contender but others may be faster.

Race 7

(1) MOONLIGHTER has raced well for new trainer Andrew Harris if you ignore his last race when he had no shot from post seven. From the inside post, driver Joe Bongiorno should have plenty of options. (2) BETTING EXCHANGE was a solid second two starts back in this class. (10) JACKSRLUCKYTOO is the fastest horse in the race but you have to be careful considering the bad draw and long layoff.

Race 8

(6) CLASSIC AMERICAN N has been a bit flat at Yonkers for trainer Nick Surick. The switch to The Meadowlands could make a big difference. (7) ELITE AWARDS gets post and class relief but hasn’t won in 28 starts this year. (5) LAST DRAGON is certainly fast enough but horses from this barn tend to need a start coming off the bench.

Race 9

(4) PIER HO TEMPTATION took a bit of a break and raced very well at Vernon last time. Four-year-old has some go in his tank and seems like a great fit here. (3) GUANTANAMO BAY has great tactical speed and should be in good position. (6) EVER AGAIN is a sharp horses taking a shot versus older foes; mixed feelings. (7) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL is certainly sharp and could be a factor if they mix it up on the engine.

Race 10

(1) TOTALLY DREAMY is in another field without much early speed. Coming off a win, I expect a more aggressive steer this week. (7) AMPED UP moves into a new barn and can easily fly off the gate and take them a long way. (8) STIMULUS PLAN is off the claim and instantly eligible to improve.

Race 11

(3) MISTER TRUTH drops ever so slightly off a solid second-place finish last Saturday. I’ll give him the slight edge over (2) WINDSONG GORGEOUS, who rolled down the road versus an abbreviated field last week after setting very soft fractions. (5) SAVAGE SEELSTER should be along for an exotics share but I’ll stick to just the top pair as winners. (1) THAT’S MY OPINION roared home last time and is sure to be overbet now. He is too unreliable to bet as anything other than a longshot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 39 - 101 / $167.00 (-$35.00)

BEST BETS: 5 - 8 / $11.80 (-$4.20)

Best Bet: PIER HO TEMPTATION (9th)

Spot Play: BORN TO FIGHT (3rd)


Race 1

(3) SANTIAGO STYLE gets written into this Non-winners of 2 race on the merits of having won seven races for purses under $2,600. It will be interesting to see how he handles the stretch out to the mile track. (4) COOL BREEZE DE VIE has been on a solid run at Monticello and should fit with this group. (1) TALENT SOUP comes off a win at Pocono in decent time for a barn that seems to be heating up slightly.

Race 2

(5) DOUBLE A CASH HALL ships in from Hoosier where he was facing some strong company including Rose Run Parker, who rolled the dice in the Open ranks on the east coast earlier in the year. This seems like a winnable spot. (2) WAITING ON A WOMAN tired on the lead last time but showed more form than in previous weeks. He could be ready to turn things around. (6) ROCK CASHEL is very consistent but I’d need a double-digit price to back him on the win end in this group.

Race 3

(4) BORN TO FIGHT was poised to pounce in the pocket last time at Pocono when he ran up on the leader and made a break. This is far from a strong bunch and he should be sitting close to the front. (8) SHEER FLEX gets class relief and has won at The Meadowlands in the past; dangerous. (1) WILD SMILE was facing tougher at Yonkers and does get sent out by Daley this week.

Race 4

(1) GAMBLER’S TALE never got involved last week but turned in a solid effort in one of these preliminary Dash for the G Notes events two starts back. In a field without a standout, he can take charge. (6) BULLVILLE KYLE showed some late life last time and does own a 1:51 win here this year. (8) CARD SHOCK doesn’t show up every week but is more than capable of beating this field if he feels like it. (3) BROADIES SONG drops in claiming price tonight.

Race 5

(6) THE BRUISER finds a field lacking early speed and on the class drop this week, he might be a good option to steal this race. Barn has started the meet hot with a 6-2-2-1 record. (2) WILD SHOT HANOVER is another with the potential to get aggressive early in the mile. (4) IYQ YQR closed well last time out and could be rounding into form.

Race 6

(7) LET’S FOAL AROUND has reached the basement condition at The Meadowlands and only needs to bring a decent effort to take care of business. (2) RANCOUSY is another who is in cheap; main danger. (3) KONA KID was cruising along on the engine when he broke last time; contender but others may be faster.

Race 7

(1) MOONLIGHTER has raced well for new trainer Andrew Harris if you ignore his last race when he had no shot from post seven. From the inside post, driver Joe Bongiorno should have plenty of options. (2) BETTING EXCHANGE was a solid second two starts back in this class. (10) JACKSRLUCKYTOO is the fastest horse in the race but you have to be careful considering the bad draw and long layoff.

Race 8

(6) CLASSIC AMERICAN N has been a bit flat at Yonkers for trainer Nick Surick. The switch to The Meadowlands could make a big difference. (7) ELITE AWARDS gets post and class relief but hasn’t won in 28 starts this year. (5) LAST DRAGON is certainly fast enough but horses from this barn tend to need a start coming off the bench.

Race 9

(4) PIER HO TEMPTATION took a bit of a break and raced very well at Vernon last time. Four-year-old has some go in his tank and seems like a great fit here. (3) GUANTANAMO BAY has great tactical speed and should be in good position. (6) EVER AGAIN is a sharp horses taking a shot versus older foes; mixed feelings. (7) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL is certainly sharp and could be a factor if they mix it up on the engine.

Race 10

(1) TOTALLY DREAMY is in another field without much early speed. Coming off a win, I expect a more aggressive steer this week. (7) AMPED UP moves into a new barn and can easily fly off the gate and take them a long way. (8) STIMULUS PLAN is off the claim and instantly eligible to improve.

Race 11

(3) MISTER TRUTH drops ever so slightly off a solid second-place finish last Saturday. I’ll give him the slight edge over (2) WINDSONG GORGEOUS, who rolled down the road versus an abbreviated field last week after setting very soft fractions. (5) SAVAGE SEELSTER should be along for an exotics share but I’ll stick to just the top pair as winners. (1) THAT’S MY OPINION roared home last time and is sure to be overbet now. He is too unreliable to bet as anything other than a longshot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (2nd) Black Tide, 10-1
(9th) Storm Pursuit, 8-1


Charles Town (1st) Little Red Missile, 7-2
(6th) Carolina Gold, 3-1


Churchill Downs (5th) Areed, 7-2
(7th) Halo Nation, 5-1


Del Mar (7th) Honor and Courage, 3-1
(8th) Itsinthepost, 3-1


Delta Downs (4th) Rise Up, 4-1
(9th) Bling It On Baby, 10-1


Fair Grounds (1st) Dreamy Art, 7-2
(3rd) Song for Ruby, 5-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Heartofthetemple, 3-1
(8th) Matter of Luck, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (7th) Lemon Royal, 4-1
(10th) Arch Legacy, 3-1


Hawthorne (4th) Nifty Fifty, 6-1
(7th) Show'em Pop, 9-2


Laurel Park (3rd) Goodbye Sorrow, 3-1
(8th) Chamois, 9-2


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Oralee, 7-2
(4th) Sweeping Victory, 9-2


Mountaineer (2nd) Two Timer, 3-1
(7th) Bank of Dad, 6-1


Parx Racing (1st) Run Dixie Run, 9-2
(9th) Saharan Serenade, 6-1


Penn National (3rd) My Dear Noble, 9-2
(4th) Word Racer, 9-2


Remington Park (1st) Silver Reina, 3-1
(5th) Sajara, 10-1


Retama Park (4th) Awesome J T, 3-1
(6th) Miss Ocean Express, 7-2


Turf Paradise (7th) Surfliner, 6-1
(8th) Desert Express, 3-1


Woodbine (5th) Royal Katy, 3-1
(6th) Kodiac Gal, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4,9/1,4,7/1/1,4,6,8/1,3,4,6 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,6,8/1,3,4,6/5,8/5,9 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 4,7/2/1,3,4,6,8/2 = $10

MEET STATS: 10 - 42 / $61.30 BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $6.00

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00

Best Bet: NIRVANA SEELSTER (11th)

Spot Play: CASIMIR OVERDRIVE (6th)


Race 1

(4) HOT SPOT HANOVER had her win streak snapped right on the wire last time but she has post position advantage on that rival here and she can get a new streak started here. (9) STYLISH BEACHWHERE capitalized on a slowing late pace to get up on the wire last time and while she is sharp, she may not get the same type of trip here. (1) MISTY DE VIE can pass many of these and take a smaller share. (3) MISS BABE DELIGHT is worth a look for the exotics entering the top trainer's barn here.

Race 2

(1) PRINCESS AURORA was an excellent 2nd from the 10-hole to the division leader in the Breeders Crown and that rival doesn't show up here; top call. (7) WINTER SWEET FROST raced well for Zeron at Dover and her good early speed should play well here. (4) TEMPLE RUINS is another that will be positioned close to the lead early which is the place to be on this track. (3) GRAVITATOR is one of the better locals and she has shown improvement this autumn.

Race 3

(1) IMAGINE DRAGON unleashed an impressive late surge to win in this class last week. The short field works to her advantage; call to repeat. (3) SANDBETWEENURTOES was nailed right on the line by the choice last week. She should be the main threat again. (6) DELIGHTFUL HILL could threaten the top two if she is pushed hard off the gate, but, that scenario seems difficult to predict from week to week. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE raced better last time vs. weaker but she is likely to be limited to a smaller share here.

Race 4

(1) VEGAS ROCKS was a sharp winner last time he was in this class and he may offer a decent price here; slight nod. (8) ASAP HANOVER couldn't chase down a strong leader last time, but he was game in defeat and he rates highly here. (6) COOL ROCK is in sharp form and he is in with a good chance here if the track is playing fair. (4) THE REV should improve off his November 12th comeback race.

Race 5

(1) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE fell victim to a :59 flat middle 1/2 last week as no one was in any hurry in that elimination. Expect a more aggressive steer this time. (3) IDYLLIC BEACH was the benefactor of that slow pace, but good horses make their own luck and she is always a threat from close range. (6) THAT'S THE TICKET was flying at the wire last week. She would be the one to watch for late if any mid-race battling develops here. (4) CAVIART ALLY overcame a slow pace and powered up late to win her elimination. She isn't out of this.

Race 6

(5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE moved first up into the fastest part of the mile last week and although he was quickly repelled, he did show some grit down the lane coming on again late. A slightly better trip could get him home at a price here. (8) PRESCOTTS HOPE will blast off the gate one of these weeks and when he does he could lead his rivals on a merry chase. (4) REEL has been closing well and he has an upset chance here if he is in range turning for home. (1) DARCEE N figures on the class drop here but he is often a victim of pace and trip.

Race 7

(5) SNOWSTORM HANOVER rode a soft early pace to an easy elimination win, but note that he doesn't need the lead to win and he can work out a good trip here starting from the middle of the gate. (9) WHAT THE HILL is sure to be more aggressive early here; using. (2) ANDY M was passing horses as the pace quickened last week which is a sign of sharpness. Toss him on some Pick 4 tickets. (3) JAKE was a solid elimination winner and he could better this prediction racing from close range.

Race 8

(7) DAYLIGHT RUSH was pushed hard early last week and he showed some determination re-rallying for 2nd. He could take this group coast-to coast. (4) BLAYDE HANOVER easily beat the choice, but he was the beneficiary of some spirited front-end dueling that night. He is obviously a contender, but likely to be overbet here. (2) MASERATI SEELSTER comes off a sharp front end win and he can take a slice here facing better this time. (5) ELECTRIC WESTERN is a great one to use in the bottom slots of exotic wagers.

Race 9

(2) HUNTSVILLE is on a tremendous roll and he proved in the Breeders Crown that he is the best in this division; top call. (3) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE was no match for the choice last time and the chalky exacta seems logical to repeat here. (1) MISO FAST can follow along and take a smaller share here. (4) BLOOD LINE had a tough trip in the Breeders Crown. He's worth a look here leaving from a much better post.

Race 10

(1) SASS couldn't chase the winner down last week on a night where the front was golden. He can turn the tables here if he gets a good enough start from the tricky rail post. (3) A ROD HALL will be a threat here if he can stay flat, but that part is a bit iffy. (8) MARQUIS VOLO finally put it all together last time. He is a threat to repeat off that sharp win. (6) RENEGADE MAGIC always seems to be around the money and she has an upset chance here if she is put into the race early.

Race 11

(2) NIRVANA SEELSTER went a monster first-over trip chasing the sharpest horse on the grounds last week and he was still digging at the wire. He should be very tough in here. (3) JINS SHARK makes his third start off a break and she is obviously fast enough to contend, if right. (1) AMERICAN VIRGIN figures on the class drop here. (7) TRACEUR HANOVER steps back up off a nice win but these are much tougher; minor share predicted.

Race 12

(8) BIGTOWN HERO qualified at least a second faster than his opponents go for purses here. If he stays flat, he'll be tough to overhaul. (9) MACH ON THE BEACH moves into Moreau's barn off a sharp victory; using. (5) ARRIVED LATE always hits the ticket it seems; consider for exotic wagers. (1) BALI can parlay an inside following trip into a share here. (6) CHAMPAGNE PHIL - a classy veteran - should be part of the early pace and he may stick around for a slice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

—*USC 65, Texas A&M 63— Solid road win for the Trojans.

— Arkansas 71, Tex-Arlington 67— Mavericks were up 17 in first half.

— Virginia’s basketball team dumped**transfer Austin Nichols;*he played one game for them after transferring from Memphis.

— Texas Rangers signed P Andrew Cashner for one year, $10M.

— Xavier-Northern Iowa is the final of the Tire Pros tournament in Orlando which will be Sunday night.

— Villanova-Central Florida is the final of the Charleston tournament, which will also be Sunday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

—*USC 65, Texas A&M 63— Solid road win for the Trojans.

— Arkansas 71, Tex-Arlington 67— Mavericks were up 17 in first half.

— Virginia’s basketball team dumped**transfer Austin Nichols;*he played one game for them after transferring from Memphis.

— Texas Rangers signed P Andrew Cashner for one year, $10M.

— Xavier-Northern Iowa is the final of the Tire Pros tournament in Orlando which will be Sunday night.

— Villanova-Central Florida is the final of the Charleston tournament, which will also be Sunday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 11/19 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 410 - 1182 / $2,223.50

BEST BETS: 54 - 96 / $177.40

Best Bet: SONOFA SIZZLE (3rd)

Spot Play: ALTA JEROME N (9th)


Race 1

(5) JUSTICE MY WAY really hasn't put in a bad effort in some time and Stratton sticks with him; he seems perfectly capable from this spot with any sort of live trip. (4) IDEAL FASHION finished with good pace and that's three good efforts since returning locally. (7) BETTOR REASON N could have shown more last week but he drops back to the level of his last win.

Race 2

(1) SPORTS BETTOR has raced well enough recently to suggest that he can sit a stalking trip and have enough to go by late. (5) SHADIOS will be heading to the front as usual and will have to be caught. (4) CHOCOLATE CRACKERS has Bartlett driving again for Milici and could make things interesting with early involvement.

Race 3

(1) SONOFA SIZZLE debuts for Milici upon shipping in, picks up Bartlett and draws best in this mixed bag of pacers. (4) BIG SURF jogged upon arrival from The Maritimes and he could have more to offer. (2) PASS THEM BY N has underacheived this year but he draws well again and should stick around for a share.

Race 4

(7) BIG N BAD was facing better when last seen locally and he's reunited with Bartlett; down the road. (3) KEYSTONE HONOR fits with these and he can grind and land a good share. (5) MARTY MONKHOUSER A has been sneaky-good in most recent and he can land a share at a price.

Race 5

(1) DALHOUSIE DAVE was aggressively handled and paid the price last week; he drops, draws best and deserves another chance. (2) HUGH HEFNER N raced well from off the pace last out at a price; he could leave enough to protect position and sit the garden trip. (3) OH JONNY B GOOD N was very game uncovered last out wearing down the odds-on favorite.

Race 6

(2) MACHS BEACH BOY has had a very disappointing season but he's shown some flashes of his former brilliance recently and would be no surprise from this inside spot against this questionable field. (4) MICKEY HANOVER is very inconsistent but his best effort puts him in the mix. (1) PREPARTY lacks the class of others but he's been sharp and he draws best.

Race 7

(4) BLOOD BROTHER appeared to have pace in the pocket but was shuffled and lost chance; give the 4-year-old another look, at a better price. (1) SOHO LENNON A returns off a win at The Meadowlands and gets a very nice post assignment. (8) P H SUPERCAM is severely handicapped by the outside post but it's hard to completely dismiss him.

Race 8

(4) THE REAL ONE always finishes with pace but always seems to be too far back; eventually the Lachance trainee is going to get there. (3) FIRST CLASS HORSE certainly didn't disgrace himself in his debut at this top level. (1) MELMERBY BEACH returns locally after a nice 3rd place finish in the TVG Final versus Always B Miki.

Race 9

(7) ALTA JEROME N has looked very impressive for Oakes since arriving from Down-Under; other imports have fired early on for this barn so I would expect good things from this one. (5) FASHION DELIGHT is reunited with Bartlett and lands a better post. (1) MCERLEAN is capable with these and the inside post certainly helps.

Race 10

(5) REUBEN BROGDEN N was a big upset winner when last at this level with Stratton driving and he draws best of the main contenders. (8) SAPPHIRE CITY has loads of class and has the speed to get involved from the outside post. (7) FEEL THE NEED A was empty from the pocket last week but we know he's better than that.

Race 11

(2) WINDS OF CHANGE pounced on these when last at this level and while it was a perfect setup that day he still figured to win; top billing from this inside spot. (4) BJ'S GUY raced decently last week for a board spot versus better. (6) CAVIART LUCA got brutally parked last out after a series of sharp efforts for the Burke barn; consider.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

Here’s the Bonus Play for Saturday in college football.

373 WASHINGTON STATE at 374 COLORADO 3:30 PM

Take: WASHINGTON STATE +6

Some big bets on Colorado as the game is supposed to be more meaningful to the Buffs than to Washington State. All I keep hearing is how even if Wazzu loses here, the Washington game next week decides the division.

That’s true, but basically Colorado is in the same boat to some extent, as they will have to beat Utah next week to win the division. If my read is right, Utah wins the division thanks to having beaten USC if it’s a three-time tie.

Regardless, it’s my experience that all these scenarios end up getting way more play from media and fans than the teams themselves. The actual players just want to win and don’t dwell on things they cannot control.

I think this line has now climbed to a point where there’s too much value to pass on from a Cougars standpoint, and I also think you can argue they’re the better team right now. Colorado does play great pass defense to be sure, so this is by no means easy. But at close to a TD, I’ve got to trust my data and I’m taking Washington State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bonus Plays

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Oregon Ducks + 14


Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: CFB Air Force -10½ Over San Jose St


Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take FLORIDA +14½ over LSU


Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Massachusetts/BYU under 55 1/2


Jeff Allen Sports

Saturday's Free Selection is on Navy/East Carolina Over


Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Wyoming Cowboys + 10


Platinum Plays

Free Pick: CFB Florida International Panthers +2½ over Marshall


Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Saturday Selection LSU -15


Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick Texas Tech -3' College FB


Huddle Up Sports

Bonus Play Iowa -9'


Hawkeye Sports

Early Saturday's Free Pick: Buffalo Bulls + 35 1/2


The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Saturday: Take CENTRAL FLORIDA Pick'em over Tulsa


High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Early Saturday: Middle Tennessee State - 4 1/2


John Anthony Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Georgia Southern Eagles - 3


Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Saturday: Take UTAH -14 over Oregon

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Merril

Maryland vs Nebraska

Bonus Play Nebraska

Nebraska was close to being an official play today, but both teams have injuries to their starting quarterbacks which adds an element of uncertainty to this game. Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong is questionable with a hamstring injury, while Maryland QB Perry Hills is questionable due to a shoulder injury. However, the edge still goes to the Cornhuskers who are a perfect 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by +17.6 points per game, as they should control the line of scrimmage, especially against a weak Maryland defense that is allowing 35.4 points per game and 532 total yards (6.8 yppl) on the road this season while going 1-4 ATS. Maryland has been horrendous against the run, allowing 229 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per carry in all games this year (versus opponents that average just 174 yards and 4.4 ypr). Those numbers are even worse on the road where the Terps permit 291 rushing yards per game and 5.8 yards per carry.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play: SAT: Navy -8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Indiana vs Michigan

Bonus Play Michigan

I'm laying the points with Michigan on Saturday. This line opened as high as 28 in Las Vegas. The number was adjusted when it was announced QB Wilton Speight would miss the rest of the regular season with a collarbone injury. HC Jim Harbaugh said as recently as Thursday morning that Speight may play. However, we highly doubt he'll be able to take the field on Saturday. John O'Korn is likely to start this week's game with Indiana and we believe the Wolverines' offense is in quality hands. As Harbaugh said, O'Korn exudes confidence and his teammates believe he can get the job done. You'll remember he threw for more than 3,100 yards in his first season at Houston, with 28 TD passes and 10 INTs. He's obviously surrounded by better talent than he was then, including no less than four RBs who have rushed for at least 405 yards each, led by De'Veon Smith, who has rushed for nearly 600 yards on the season. The U-M defense is the stingiest in CFB in total yards allowed per game, passing yards allowed per game, and points allowed per game. They're also strong against the run and we note that the Hoosiers are on a 2-9 ATS slide against teams that allow no more than 3.25 yards per carry. Indiana has allowed 108 points in their last three games, but won two contests thanks to the offense. We suspect they'll be unable to "keep up" in this one. Michigan enters on a 7-1 ATS run off a SU loss. And while they have Ohio State next, last week's loss to Iowa, and the fact they're still in the top-4 in the playoff rankings should keep them focused on the task at hand. I believe the line has been over-adjusted and I'm laying the points with Michigan on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[STP]

James Jones - (-1.3* Fri. Now Nov. at -18.14*)

3 Units: (419) Florida +14.5
2 Units: (341) Oklahoma -3.5
2 Units: (356) Michigan -25.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Josephs

UMass vs BYU

Bonus Play OVER

It's a battle of Independents with BYU hosting UMass. The Minutemen have had awful luck on defense allowing around six yards per play and over 30 points per contest. The good thing for them is that their passing attack led by Andrew Ford has shown some glimpses. They have scored 28 points or more in four straight games and BYU's defense certainly can be leaky. The Cougars will be able to keep up in any shootout as they've scored 27 points or more in six of their last seven games. Now the Cougs are on a five game under streak, but I think they won't take this one as seriously. UMass has gone over in 18 of their last 25 games as an underdog. This one keeps moving up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Stanford vs California

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Stanford -10.5

The Stanford Cardinal have really turned their season around. They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall. They won 34-10 at Arizona as 3.5-point favorites and 52-27 at Oregon as 3-point favorites. Their only non-cover was a 26-15 win over Oregon State as 16.5-point favorites in which they were stopped on 4th and goal from the 1 late, otherwise they would have covered that game as well.

California has gone the other direction. The Golden Bears are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, and they haven't even been competitive in the losses. They fell 24-45 at USC as 20-point dogs, 27-66 at home to Washington as 19.5-point dogs, and 21-56 at Washington State as 17.5-point dogs.

The difference in this game is that Stanford is going to be able to keep scoring even when it gets a big lead because California simply cannot stop anyone. The Golden Bears have allowed 45 or more points in five consecutive games. They are giving up an average of 55.7 points and 662.3 yards per game in their last three games alone.

Christian McCaffrey is going to be in for a career day against this California run defense. The Golden Bears allow 283 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.2 yards per carry this season. They gave up 474 rushing yards to Oregon State, 398 to USC, 287 to Washington and even 254 to a Washington State team not known for running the ball.

Stanford will be able to get some stop, which is also going to be a difference-maker. The Cardinal have allowed 10, 10, 10, 15 and 27 points in their last five games overall for an average of 14.4 points per game. This defense continues to play better as the season has gone on.

Stanford is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Cal. The Cardinal have won five of those six games by at least 13 points. Stanford is 9-1 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Cardinal are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games with a turnover margin of +4 or better. Bet Stanford Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Indiana vs Michigan

Play - Indiana

Edges - Hoosiers: 4-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 20 points; and 3-0 ATS in Last Road Games. Wolverines: 7-18 ATS as home favorites following a SU favorite loss, including 1-4 ATS as favorites of 24 or more points. With Michigan in a classic ‘bubble burst’ situation and having Ohio State on deck, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana. Thank you and good luck as always.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Indiana vs Michigan

Play - Indiana

Edges - Hoosiers: 4-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 20 points; and 3-0 ATS in Last Road Games. Wolverines: 7-18 ATS as home favorites following a SU favorite loss, including 1-4 ATS as favorites of 24 or more points. With Michigan in a classic ‘bubble burst’ situation and having Ohio State on deck, we recommend a 1* play on Indiana. Thank you and good luck as always.