Saturday 11/19/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Alabama A&M Bulldogs (4-6) at Auburn Tigers (7-3)

Date: November 19, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

Injuries continue to mount for No. 18 Auburn, particularly on offense.

Coach Gus Malzahn announced that the Tigers will be without such weapons as running backs Kamryn Pettway and Stanton Truitt, and H-back Chandler Cox when they host Alabama A&M on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

Also sidelined are wide receiver/punt returner Marcus Davis and special teams performer Josh Shockley. Meanwhile, quarterback Sean White is listed as questionable for the game, which serves as the final tuneup for the Tigers (7-3) before the traditional Iron Bowl match against No. 1 Alabama on Nov. 26.

Malzahn said early in the week he was "not ready to make a call" on the status of White, who said he had re-aggravated a shoulder injury in last week's 13-7 loss to Georgia.

"We'll play him when he's healthy," Malzahn said.

White struggled against the Bulldogs. A normally accurate passer, he completed 6 of 20 attempts and 2 of 8 in the fourth quarter.

"I kind of hurt myself a little bit more during the game," White said the next day. "I think I could have done a little better job letting the coaches know. I wanted to play for my team and I wanted to try to win."

Malzahn said that John Franklin III and Jeremy Johnson are in line at quarterback if needed. Franklin started two weeks against Vanderbilt, but Malzahn turned the game back over to White after the Tigers went to the locker room trailing 13-10 at halftime. White rallied the Tigers to the 23-16 victory.

In addition to the trio of running backs who have been ruled out, sophomore Kerryon Johnson is still recovering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for one game and has affected him since. He had 22 carries for 99 yards against Georgia.

"We're pretty beat up back there," coach Gus Malzahn said of the Tigers' backfield.

The concern is such that Auburn went into this week looking to give defensive back Johnathan Ford some reps on offense in case he was needed. He was moved from offense to defense in the fall camp of his freshman year in 2013.

Freshman Kam Martin (144 yards on 23 carries) also could assume a more prominent role.

Pettway exploded onto the scene in the second week of the season when he rushed for 152 yards in a victory over Arkansas State after sitting out the opener against Clemson.

Pettway has been well into triple digits in rushing in all but one of his appearances -- he had only 61 on 17 runs against LSU -- but also missed the Louisiana-Monroe game with a bruised quad. He then pulled up lame late against Vanderbilt, he did not play at Georgia because of the leg injury. He has a team-best 1,108 yards in eight games.

Truitt, who rushed for a season-high 78 yards against Arkansas, is out with an ankle injury and Cox also has a leg problem. Auburn is hopeful of getting them back for the Iron Bowl.

Davis and Shockley, however, are out for the season with shoulder injuries.

Davis has 17 receptions for 160 yards, but his absence will also be felt most in Auburn's return game. He had 10 of Auburn's 11 punt runbacks for 71 yards with a long of 25 yards.

"He was one of our leaders and, obviously, our punt returner," Malzahn said.

If there is any silver lining for the Tigers in this cloud of injuries, it is that they should be should be able to rest up the players against Alabama A&M, an FCS team that beat Jackson State 27-20 in its last outing for only its third win in the last eight games.

Quarterback De'Angelo Ballard passed for only 143 yards and had two passes picked off in that game, but also rushed for a game-high 155 yards. Running back Jordan Bentley ran for 106.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Arizona State Sun Devils (5-5) at Washington Huskies (9-1)

Date: November 19, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

Washington suffered its first loss of the season last week, but its hopes still flicker for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

The seventh-ranked Huskies (9-1, 6-1 Pac-12) still control their destiny in the Pac-12 North, needing to beat struggling Arizona State (5-5, 2-5) at home on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, FOX) before finishing the regular season at division-leading Washington State.

"We do just need to respond," said Washington coach Chris Petersen, whose team lost 26-13 at home to USC last weekend.

"I hope our guys have a new edge to them a little bit, but I do think they've done a good job all season long, like I've been saying, about preparing. They played hard. Both sides played really, really hard. It wasn't about that at all."

Washington's weak nonconference schedule -- Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State -- continues to be an issue as the Huskies now need help to reach the playoff. But they have a chance to impress late in the season, by beating the Cougars and then facing a ranked champion from the Pac-12 South, possibly even getting a rematch against USC.

But first up is Arizona State, which has lost four games in a row, allowing at least 37 points in each of them. The Sun Devils have given up 103 total points to Oregon and Utah in the past two outings.

Allowing explosive plays has been at the forefront of ASU's undoing.

The Sun Devils have allowed 64 plays of 20-plus yards (tied for 121st out of 128 teams nationally), 34 plays of 30-plus yards (123rd), 24 plays of 40-plus yards (127th), 16 plays of 50-plus yards (127th) and 11 plays of 60-plus yards (tied for 126th).

For more evidence, see last week's 49-26 home loss to Utah.

The Utes scored on a 64-yard pass, a 27-yard pass, a 17-yard pass, an 82-yard run, a 24-yard pass and a 40-yard run.

"The story of the whole game, when you go back and look at the film, my only impression is just big plays," said coach Todd Graham. "That's been the big deal. It's just frustrating."

Although stonewalled by USC, Washington has all kinds of explosive potential. The Huskies scored 70 against Oregon and 66 vs. Cal this season. The trio of wide receiver John Ross, running back Myles Gaskin and quarterback Jake Browning can provide plenty of fireworks.

Browning, after completing 17 of 36 passes for 259 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against USC, dropped from first to third nationally in passing efficiency with a rating of 189.1.

Gaskin was held to 51 yards rushing on 15 carries last week, but he did go over 1,000 yards for the season and is averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Ross, one of 10 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation's top wideout, picked up his 15th touchdown reception of the season last week.

"Ross is probably the most dynamic player in our league," Graham said. "I would say explosive plays and defense are the two things when I think of them."

Washington's defense has been superb, ranking ninth nationally in points allowed (17.9 per game) and 19th in total defense (336.8). The Huskies lead the nation in turnover margin (plus 1.5 per game).

But Washington is now without two of its top two defenders against the run. Linebacker Joe Mathis (foot) was already out for the season and linebacker Azeem Victor suffered a foot injury last week that will keep him sidelined.

Redshirt freshman DJ Beavers will replace Victor, who has a team-high 68 tackles.

"I think he filled in pretty well," Petersen said of Beavers.

"He made some tackles, played aggressive, played tough. It's hard when you lose a player like Azeem, for sure, but it was not like this, 'Oh, now we have no chance' type of thing. He was right there playing physical."

Arizona State has some weapons on offense, although quarterback Manny Wilkins, who has dealt with injuries in recent weeks, looked rusty Saturday against Utah, throwing two interceptions and being sacked nine times.

Arizona State uses running back Kalen Ballage in a variety of ways, including taking direct snaps. He is coming off his second consecutive game with 200-plus all-purpose yards, rolling up 244 against Utah -- a career-high 118 receiving, 46 rushing and 80 in the return game.

Wide receiver N'Keal Harry, a talented true freshman, is coming off his best game. He had eight catches for a career-high 114 yards, rushed for 31 yards on a broken play after he dropped a lateral, and completed a 46-yard pass. He'll have interesting matchups this week against Washington cornerbacks Sidney Jones and Kevin King.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Florida Gators (7-2) at LSU Tigers (6-3)

Date: November 19, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

So LSU and Florida will meet after all.

They will play 42 days later than originally scheduled and about 600 miles west of the original site.

But the No. 16 Tigers will host the No. 21 Gators on Saturday afternoon in Tiger Stadium in a game postponed from Oct. 8 in Gainesville, Fla., due to Hurricane Matthew.

The new date and location came after several days of contentious negotiations involving the two schools and the SEC.

"Look, anything that comes up that really is out of your control, I mean, you can sit and cry about it or you can just move on," Florida coach Jim McElwain said. "That's what we've got to do. It is what it is. We're going there to play and that's the way it is."

These teams' seasons have come much more clearly into focus than they were when the postponement took place.

LSU (6-3, 4-2 in the SEC) is 4-1 since Ed Orgeron was named interim head coach after Les Miles was fired in the wake of a 2-2 start.

Florida (7-2, 5-2) has put itself on the cusp of a second consecutive SEC East Division title, though it enters the game with at least seven starters sidelined by injury. If the Gators win, they go back to Atlanta to play West Division champion and No. 1 Alabama on Dec. 3. If they lose, they can still win the East if Tennessee loses either at home to Missouri this week or at Vanderbilt next week.

Had this game been played Oct. 8, Florida likely would have avoided Tigers All-America running back Leonard Fournette, who was sidelined by an ankle injury. Fournette aggravated the injury for the third time this season in a win against Arkansas last week but he's more likely to play than he would have been six weeks ago.

Derrius Guice has established himself as one of the top running backs in the SEC while getting expanded playing time due to Fournette's limited playing time.

Florida has the No. 2 rush defense in the SEC (111.7 yards per game), but its top three tacklers -- linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone and safety Marcus Maye -- won't play because of injury.

The Gators also could be without as many as three starters on the offensive line.

"They were injured when we were about to play and then I guess they got a couple guys back and now they lost multiple guys," LSU outside linebacker Arden Key said. "I know they're scared to come up here because they don't have all their stars or whatnot."

Both teams have starting quarterbacks who transferred from Purdue and weren't starters at the beginning of the season. Danny Etling replaced a struggling Brandon Harris after two games for LSU.

Austin Appleby will be making his fourth start of the season and second in a row because of injuries to Luke Del Rio.

LSU, which concludes the regular season at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night, will honor its departing seniors before a home game it wasn't supposed to have. A week ago, the Gators bid farewell to their departing seniors a week earlier than originally planned.

Had this game been played as originally scheduled, LSU would be hosting South Alabama on Saturday and Florida would be hosting Presbyterian College in a tune-up for its regular-season finale at Florida State next Saturday.

Gators players remember October speculation that suggested they weren't eager to play the game then or now.

"I think the LSU game is one of the biggest games for us every season just like FSU, just like Georgia," safety Nick Washington said. "I mean we're going to go into it with a little more of a chip on our shoulder because of what's been said in the media and what not. I know we're ready to go."

So instead of playing a non-conference breather, LSU and Florida are meeting in a Top 25 matchup with important implications. In addition to the Gators trying to wrap up a division title and strengthen their long-shot of making the College Football Playoff, the Tigers are trying to enhance their attractiveness to bowls and strengthen Orgeron's case to be the full-time head coach when these teams finally meet in The Swamp next season.

"We didn't have success in one game. We're 4-1," Oregeron said in reference to what's happened since he took over. "There's a lot of good things we've done. I really feel like we have a good football team, and I like that they're having fun."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oregon Ducks (3-7) at Utah Utes (8-2)

Date: November 19, 2016 2:00 PM EDT

Defense continues to be Utah's strength under coach Kyle Whittingham.

The No. 11 Utes, who host downtrodden Oregon on Saturday (2 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network), are second in the nation in interceptions and No. 1 in takeaways after last week's 49-26 victory at Arizona State.

Utah (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) controls its destiny in the Pac-12 South race but has to beat the Ducks and then win at division-leading Colorado on Nov. 26 to advance to the conference championship game.

"All of our focus, all of our attention, is on the Ducks this week," Whittingham said.

"There is not a chance we will be looking past those guys. Not a chance at all. They're very talented on offense. I mean, they're Oregon. They have had some struggles on defense this year, but offensively, they're scoring points, they're moving the ball. They've got firepower."

Fair enough. Oregon (3-7, 1-6) does average 37.1 points per game but will not qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2004 and it is second-to-last nationally in scoring defense, yielding 43.5 points per game.

The Ducks are coming off a 52-27 loss to Stanford.

Fourth-year coach Mark Helfrich, who guided the program to the national championship game in the 2014 season, acknowledged it has been a difficult season.

"Yeah the frustrations are different," he said.

"There's always the segment of the team that's frustrated, whether that's a role or a position. There's always something. This is different. It's not any fun. Not having a ton of fun, which is something you have to squeeze out of it at this point and play to their competitiveness and play to all those aspects of why they're here."

Utah has 25 takeaways and also leads the nation in net punting (45.3 yards per game). The Utes have picked off 17 passes. They are fifth nationally in sacks with 35, including 11 versus Arizona State.

"Coverage in the secondary was very good. If you can cover for that extra second, second-and-a-half, then the pass rush can show up," Whittingham said.

"A lot of the sacks were due to very good coverage in the back end, and a lot of them were due to the pass rush just getting on the quarterback quickly. It was a combination. That is how you play great pass defense."

Utah will now take aim at Oregon freshman quarterback Justin Herbert, who took over as the starter in the sixth week. He has thrown for 1,432 yards and 15 scores while rushing for 122 yards and a touchdown, providing hope for the future.

"No question he cares a lot," Helfrich said.

Last week, Utah defensive end Hunter Dimick rewrote some of Utah's single-game records with five sacks, 37 sack yards lost, and 6.5 tackles for loss. He also reached 27 career sacks, trying the school mark set by John Frank from 1996-99.

Dimick is tied for the national lead with 12 sacks.

Offensively, Utah running back Joe Williams, who retired from football for about a month at the start of the season, has made a significant mark in the past four games, rushing for 864 yards in that span, including a school-record 332 against UCLA. The Utes are third in the Pac-12 in rushing, averaging 212.9 yards a game.

Quarterback Troy Williams had the best game of his career last week against Arizona State's porous pass defense. Williams had a career-high 296 yards on 21-of-37 passing, with a career-best four touchdown passes.

The ground or air method should work against Oregon.

The Ducks rank 11th in the conference by allowing 255.9 rushing yards per game. Things might get worse as defensive lineman Austin Maloata, one of the team's top run-stoppers, was kicked off the team Sunday after an arrest.

Oregon had allowed six consecutive Pac-12 teams to throw for 300 yards before Stanford, last in the league in passing, put up "only" 258 last week -- which was nearly double its season average.

Utah enters the weekend in third place in the Pac-12 South, a game behind Colorado (6-1) and a half-game behind USC (6-2). The Utes already have a win over the Trojans. By winning out, Utah would, at worst, be in a tiebreaker situation in which it would hold the edge in all scenarios.

Utah beat Oregon 62-20 last season in Eugene.

"All three phases seemed to click in that game," Whittingham said. "It was almost flawless execution on offense from start to finish."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: San Diego State Aztecs (9-1) at Wyoming Cowboys (7-3)

Date: November 19, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

The first time San Diego State was nationally ranked this season, the Aztecs responded by playing their worst game of the season.

San Diego State is now back in the rankings at No. 24 and will seek a better result when it travels to play Wyoming in Mountain West play on Saturday (3:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network).

The earlier ranking marked the first time the Aztecs had been nationally ranked since 1995. Living up to the billing proved difficult as South Alabama rolled to a 42-24 win over San Diego State.

The Aztecs quickly fell out of the rankings and have since responded with six consecutive victories. This time, the players feel more comfortable having "nationally ranked" tagged to their program.

"That was just a tough game. We had some bad luck in that one," senior defensive end Kyle Kelley said of the South Alabama loss at Tuesday's press conference. "We don't take into account the rankings that much. We're just worried about the (Wyoming) game itself. I don't really care if we are ranked right now. It all depends if we are ranked at the end of the year. That's my main goal."

San Diego State (9-1, 6-0) has already clinched the Pacific Division of the Mountain West and will play in the conference title game. Continue to win and the Aztecs will have a chance at landing a spot in the Cotton Bowl.

Aztecs coach Rocky Long said those goals mean more to him than being ranked.

"Our team wants to win the conference championship," Long said. "I'm sure they are happy that we are back in the Top 25, even though I told them that it doesn't matter until the end of the season.

"Our motivation is that we want to win the rest of the games because there are a lot of good things that can happen after the season if we can win them all. We might get to play in a New Year's Day bowl game, we'd be the conference champions. There are incentives out there."

Wyoming has its own dose of incentive this week as it continues pursuit of winning the conference's Mountain Division.

The Cowboys (7-3, 5-1) are tied for first place with Boise State and New Mexico but hurt their chances with last Saturday's 69-66 triple-overtime loss to UNLV.

"It was a game that came down to a play here or there," Wyoming coach Craig Bohl said. "There certainly were a lot of plays in the ballgame -- some really good and some not so good.

"I think it's important that we move forward and hang together as a football team. And as coaches, there are a lot of things that we've got to clean up within a short week."

One area in which the Cowboys will need to be strong is defending the run as San Diego State rushed for a school-record 474 yards in last Saturday's 46-16 victory over Nevada.

Aztecs senior running back Donnel Pumphrey leads the nation with 1,779 rushing yards and moved into fourth place in FBS history with 6,051 yards.

Pumphrey needs 32 yards to move past third-place Tony Dorsett (Pittsburgh) and is also moving within range of second-place Ricky Williams (6,279) of Texas and record-holder Ron Dayne (6,397) of Wisconsin.

He also is tied for ninth on the all-time rushing touchdowns' list with 59.

Pumphrey rushed for 198 yards in the victory over Nevada and wasn't even the leading rusher on his team. Junior Rashaad Penny topped him by rushing for a career-best 208 yards.

Wyoming also features a standout back in junior Brian Hill, who ranks third in the nation with 1,417 yards. Hill stands third in Mountain West history with 3,844 career rushing yards but could find running room to be a challenge against the Aztecs, who rank second nationally in rushing defense (86.4 yards per game).

Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen passed for a career-best 334 yards and four touchdowns in the loss to UNLV -- which was the third-highest scoring game in FBS history. Allen has passed for 2,218 yards and 21 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.

Senior wideout Tanner Gentry is also having solid season with 53 receptions for 962 yards and a conference-leading 11 touchdowns.

Sophomore free safety Andrew Wingard leads the Wyoming defense with 99 tackles. Sophomore strong safety Marcus Epps, sophomore cornerback Antonio Hull and redshirt freshman weakside linebacker Logan Wilson share the team leadership with three interceptions apiece.

Standout San Diego State senior cornerback Damontae Kazee has five interceptions this season and holds the school career mark of 15.

The Aztecs rushed for 293 yards while rolling to a 38-3 victory over Wyoming last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2-8)

Date: November 19, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The door to a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game is wide open for Penn State and what was unthinkable just weeks ago -- a shot at the four-team College Football Playoff -- is within reach. The question now is: Can the injury-riddle Nittany Lions (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten) limp through it?

No. 9 Penn State, ranked eighth in this week's College Football Playoff poll, is expected to play without its top three offensive tackles when it travels to Piscataway, N.J., to play Rutgers (2-8, 0-7) on Saturday.

Starting offensive tackle Andrew Nelson was lost for the season weeks ago and fellow starter Brendan Mahon is not expected back this week. Compounding the issue, it was announced Tuesday that Paris Palmer, who had moved into the starting lineup at tackle, is done for the season with a knee injury suffered early in last week's 45-31 win at Indiana. Promising young guard Connor McGovern also could miss the game.

Michigan's shocking loss to Iowa last Saturday means the Wolverines, Nittany Lions and No. 2 Ohio State all enter the week with 6-1 records atop the Big Ten's East Division. Penn State still needs Michigan, which hosts Indiana this week, to lose again while the Nittany Lions must win both of their games. That doesn't seem all that improbable when considering Penn State's final two opponents -- the Nittany Lions host sputtering Michigan State (3-7, 1-6) next week -- while Michigan still has to play the Buckeyes in Columbus.

Penn State still has to take care of business, however.

Although Penn State's final two opponents are a combined 1-13 in conference play, the offensive line injury woes could set back an offense that has taken off under first-year coordinator Joe Moorhead. It leaves Penn State with just one starting upperclassman -- center Brian Gaia -- and a bunch more questions for coach James Franklin. Does he go to veteran reserves Wendy Laurent and Derek Dowrey? Or does he burn a redshirt in order to fill the holes up front?

Despite the injury woes on the line, the Nittany Lions still lead the Big Ten in plays of at least 20 yards, while also ranking tied for sixth nationally with 18 plays of 40-plus yards.

Sophomore quarterback Trace McSorley ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 2,390 yards and leads the FBS in yards per completion (15.4). He has 27 completions of 30 or more yards. Also an excellent runner, McSorley has had both a rushing and passing touchdown in five of the last six games, and his 304 rushing yards are the most by a Nittany Lions quarterback since Michael Robinson had 806 in 2005.

Sophomore Saquon Barkley leads the Big Ten with 1,119 rushing yards and has scored 13 touchdowns. He also leads the conference in all-purpose yards per game (142.1).

Rutgers (2-8, 0-7) will be celebrating Senior Night and is coming off a 49-0 loss at Michigan State. The Scarlet Knights, who started the season 2-1 thanks to back-to-back home wins over Howard (52-14) and New Mexico (37-28), have lost seven straight, all in the Big Ten, by an aggregate score of 290-73. They have been shut out in three of those games and scored seven points in two others.

"This is a tough year," first-year coach Chris Ash said. "It's been a tough year. It's a tough time. But the way the people show up to work every day, the way they believe in each other, trust in each other and go work for each other has been impressive to watch, and that's what I'm most excited about as we continue to move forward."

The Scarlet Knights are averaging just 17.5 points and 296.1 yards per game while allowing 38 points and 444.5 yards. Running back Robert Martin has been an offensive bright spot, rushing for 547 yards on 105 carries, while sophomore linebacker Trevor Morris leads the team with 84 tackles and 4.5 sacks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Oklahoma Sooners (8-2) at West Virginia Mountaineers (8-1)

Date: November 19, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Prolific offense is the reputation by which No. 8 Oklahoma lives, but Bob Stoops doesn't mind hearing about how far his defense has come in a few short weeks as the Sooners pack their bags for a Big 12 showdown at 10th-ranked West Virginia on Saturday night.

In a 66-59 win at Texas Tech on Oct. 22, the Sooners gave up 854 yards of total offense.

Since, Oklahoma has given up an average of 321.4 yards per game in three wins.

"We haven't changed defenses," Stoops said. "Guys are playing better."

That improvement needs to keep up for the Sooners to have success this week when they travel to West Virginia in a game that will go a long way toward determining the Big 12 champion.

The most glaring improvement has been in the secondary, where cornerbacks Jordan Thomas and Jordan Parker have settled in after a rough first part of the season.

Thomas, who was strong a year ago as a sophomore, struggled to maintain his success early, being repeatedly beaten deep by opposing receivers.

Parker, a freshman, has been the latest to step into the other cornerback role after three other players started there early in the season.

Stoops said the improvement goes deeper.

"It isn't just the secondary," Stoops said. "It's the linebackers, everybody. It's been -- it was really solid the other day. I say the linebackers are a big part of it."

Stoops specifically mentioned Oklahoma's two inside linebackers -- Jordan Evans and Emmanuel Beal -- for their improvement.

Evans had two interceptions and two sacks last week.

"It has been a complete U-turn from that game," Evans said, pointing back to that game against Tech. "Our intensity, our effort. Guys are making more plays. The No. 1 thing is guys are having more fun doing it. Guys are wanting to get back out there each and every Saturday and wanting to get to practice on Monday to get better and to keep it going."

Evans said while the Tech game wasn't necessarily a must for improvement, it's helped focus the defense in the weeks since.

"It should never have to happen," Evans said. "We should have been doing that since Day One. The only reason I think it was good is we were still able to come out with a win in that game. We've kind of flipped out defense around. It was a good wakeup call for us."

One way the Sooners can effectively quiet West Virginia's offense is to eat the clock with a deadly running game.

Samaje Perine ran for 242 yards and four touchdowns in Oklahoma's last game in Morgantown, his first career game with 100 or more yards on the ground. And tailback Joe Mixon is averaging 6.87 yards per carry during his career, the most in the Bob Stoops era among players with 100 or more carries.

Mixon is spending several snaps per game split wide of the formation, ala DeMarco Murray, to help get both players on the field and dictate matchups.

"It's probably not quite as striking now because more people do it," Stoops said. "I still think it's effective and it still gives defenses some pause when you've got a linebacker that's way out on the numbers in a space where he's not used to operating. Just Demarco (Murray) along with Joe (Mixon) have such exceptional hands and an ability to get open. It works for us."

Mixon enters the week second in the Big 12 in rushing with 937 yards.

West Virginia has a very balanced rushing attack of its own with Justin Crawford, Rushel Shell III and Kennedy McKoy all averaging between 67-51 yards per game. This week's effort might depend on injuries. Shell was sidelined last week at Texas and McKoy carried 25 times for 73 yards to be recognized by WVU coach as the Mountaineers' offensive champion.

The Mountaineers average about 211 yards on the ground while Oklahoma surrenders an average of 132.4. Last week, the Sooners struggled to slow down Baylor's rushing attack early, surrendering 212 yards to the Bears.

Perhaps more pressing for WVU is what the Mountaineers will get out of their quarterback.

OU allows upwards of 300 passing yards per game, but in part those numbers are a byproduct of grabbing big leads and playing a softer coverage in the second half.

WVU's Skyler Howard got away with one at Texas, leading the team to victory despite throwing three interceptions. Howard was 21 of 35 for 269 yards, guiding the offense to just one touchdown after they scored a quick 17 points in the first 15:11 of the game.

Oklahoma leads 6-2 overall and 2-0 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have not beaten the Sooners since they joined the Big 12.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Missouri Tigers (3-7) at Tennessee Volunteers (7-3)

Date: November 19, 2016 3:30 PM EDT

By the time Tennessee and Missouri begin play Saturday afternoon, the Volunteers will probably have a keen sense for how another SEC game of material importance, being played 565 miles away, might turn out.

Florida and LSU are scheduled to kick off in Baton Rouge a good 2 1/2 hours before the Vols (7-3, 3-3 SEC) and Mizzou (3-7, 1-5 SEC) kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.

The Vols have a vested interest in the outcome of the LSU-Florida redo - shifted on the calendar and from Gainesville -- affair because they need the Gators to lose their conference finale to have a shot at gaining a share of the East Division title and a berth in the SEC Championship Game.

But Vols coach Butch Jones said players won't be scoreboard watching when they take on Mizzou.

"In terms of scoreboard watching, we don't ever look up at the scoreboard," Jones said. "That's kind of our mindset. You just keep your head down and you keep playing."

His players need to be concerned only with things they can control, he said.

"That's out of our hands," he said of the Florida-LSU game. "We're playing a very team that's coming in here with a lot of momentum, very, very explosive, and it's going to take all of our focus and concentration on playing Missouri."

With their win last week over Kentucky, the Vols got back to .500 in conference play and now need wins over Mizzou and Vanderbilt their next two games to finish 5-3 in the conference. If the Gators lose at LSU, they also would end up 5-3, and the Vols hold the tiebreaker to get to the title game, where they would face No. 1 Alabama. The unbeaten Crimson Tide already has clinched the West.

The Vols go into their final home game unranked in the media and coaches' polls after once reaching as high as No. 9 in the country. But consecutive losses to Texas A&M, Alabama, and South Carolina knocked them out of the Top 25. They are No. 19 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings but were among teams "also receiving votes" in this week's media and coaches' polls.

Their unranked status doesn't bother Jones.

"That's one of those things that we can't control," he said. "The only way we can control it is to keep winning.

"I am proud of this football team and everything that it has accomplished. We've played the most difficult schedule, No. 1 in the country, and we're 7-3. We're playing meaningful games in November, and that's what it's all about."

Injuries have had a major impact on the Vols. Jones noted that the Vols have lost five defensive starters since the season began and have started eight different combinations in the secondary.

"It's pretty hard to be consistent when you have that and when you look at the number of players who have missed games," Jone said. "I don't know if there as ever been a season like this in football."

The game against Missouri will feature a matchup of two of the league's most productive quarterbacks, at least when it comes to producing touchdowns.

Tennessee's Josh Dobbs and Missouri's Drew Lock are tied for the most touchdown passes among SEC quarterbacks with 21 each. Dobbs, however, also has rushed for seven scores to no rushing touchdowns for Lock.

Dobbs, in fact, is a major factor in Tennessee's running game, especially since veteran running back Jalen Hurd left the Vols after seven games. Dobbs is the Vols' leading rusher with 470 yards and is coming off a 147-yard rushing effort against Kentucky.

Missouri, which snapped a five-game losing streak with its win over Vanderbilt last week, gets its ground yardage the usual way. Running backs Damarea Crockett and Ish Witter have rushed for 837 and 575 yards, respectively. Crockett is coming off a 150-yard effort against the Commodores.

"We blocked well from the point of attack and Damarea, for a freshman, he's gotten better every week," first-year coach Barry Odom said. "He works that way in practice.

"I'm excited to see him throughout the week the way that he practices, handles himself, and then prepares the right way. He's got a bright future."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Clemson Tigers (9-1) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-4)

Date: November 19, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

The unexpected loss to unranked Pittsburgh did not eliminate Clemson from contention for one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff, especially considering what else transpired last weekend with Michigan and Washington also losing for the first time.

But it did reduce considerably the margin of error for the Tigers.

"We're still driving the car," Clemson senior center Jay Guillermo said. "We're just driving with one hand now."

And the Tigers (9-1 6-1 ACC), who dropped to No. 4 in the CFP and No. 5 in the AP poll, better keep that hand on the wheel as they take on unranked Wake Forest (6-4, 3-3 ACC) Saturday at 7 p.m. at BB&T Field in Winston-Salem.

A win for the Tigers in their ACC finale to be telecast on ESPN will clinch the Atlantic Division title and put them in the ACC Championship Game against either Virginia Tech or North Carolina from the Coastal Division. The Tigers finish the regular season at home against South Carolina the next week.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney is taking a bit of a philosophical approach to his team's first setback of the year.

"A little cough syrup for everybody is good for you from time to time," he said.

Clemson's dose was delivered courtesy of a late 48-yard field goal that gave the Panthers the 43-42 win, ending the Tigers' 21-game home winning streak.

But with a record that features four wins over currently ranked teams -- No. 3 Louisville, No. 17 Florida State, No. 18 Auburn, and No. 25 Troy -- the Tigers look in good shape of making the playoffs for a second consecutive year -- if they take care of business.

"Every goal that we have is still right there in front of us -- every single goal," Swinney said. "There's a lot out there for this team. We can't sit around and cry about this one. We need to learn from it."

The Tigers can help their cause by improving their performance in key areas like turnovers and red zone performance.

They are even for the season in turnover margin in all games but are minus-3 in ACC play with 10 turnovers lost and only seven gained.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson threw three interceptions in the loss to Pittsburgh, one deep in Panther territory that denied the Tigers at least a chance of a field goal that would have given them an 11-point cushion with less than six minutes left in the game.

The Tigers rank 94th in scoring inside the 20-yard line and have been plagued by turnovers when on the cusp of the end zone, fumbling twice and throwing four interceptions this season.

"Not finishing in the red zone, that's kind of been an Achilles' heel for us," Swinney said, "and it kind of bit us in the butt Saturday."

Wake Forest is third in the conference in red zone efficiency in conference games and is No. 1 in turnover margin with 15 takeaways (five interceptions, 10 recovered fumbles) to just 10 turnovers in six league games.

That has helped coach Dave Clawson's club achieve bowl eligibility in his fourth season with the Demon Deacons.

The Deacons were eliminated from the Atlantic Division race with their 44-12 loss to Louisville last week but still can have a huge impact on the race while improving their own bowl stock with a win over the Tigers. That would pin a second conference loss on Clemson and put Louisville, which has finished conference play at 7-1, in the ACC Championship Game.

"We want to play in November games that have meaning," Clawson said. "We know we're going to have to play extremely well. There's a very small margin for error when you play a team of this quality."

The Deacons will have to jack up their offense to have a shot. They didn't have a touchdown in their loss to the Cardinals, but led 12-10 when the fourth quarter began. Quarterback John Wolford passed for only 141 yards and the Deacons rushed for just 73.

"We've got to play really well on offense, play keep-away a little bit," Clawson said. "By the same token on defense, if we can generate turnovers, get third down stops, that's going to be really, really important for us."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: USC Trojans (7-3) at UCLA Bruins (4-6)

Date: November 19, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

Before the season, UCLA had the young, hot-shot quarterback that had the college football world -- and NFL scouts -- buzzing.

Now, USC does.

Redshirt freshman Sam Darnold is at the forefront of a Trojans resurgence that reached a peak with Saturday's 26-13 victory at previously undefeated Washington, which was No. 4 in the country. Darnold completed 22 of 33 passes for 287 yards -- the most allowed by the Huskies this season -- and two touchdowns.

Darnold gets a different kind of stage this Saturday night.

USC (7-3, 6-2 Pac-12) has its first six-game winning streak since 2008 as it heads into a game against struggling crosstown rival UCLA (4-6, 2-5) at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. The 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff makes it just the 11th night game in the history of the series.

The Bruins are without sophomore quarterback Josh Rosen, the former No. 1 quarterback recruit who has missed four games because of a shoulder injury and won't return this season. Darnold has replaced him as the L.A. star.

USC coach Clay Helton inserted Darnold as the starter, replacing Max Browne, for the fourth game of the season. The Trojans lost that day, 31-27 at Utah when the defense allowed a touchdown in the final minute, but it has been all victories since then, riding the spark that Darnold provided.

He is the reigning Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week for his performance against the Huskies, who have one of the top defensive backfields in the country. Darnold is eighth nationally in passer rating with a rating of 165.8.

"He has just unbelievable game maturity," Helton said.

The Bruins, who are still pushing for a bowl, did end a four-game skid by beating visiting Oregon State last weekend 38-24.

"It's good to get a win," said Bruins coach Jim Mora. "They have been hard to come by this year. These guys have stayed together and have kept a great attitude. So, they got rewarded for it. That was great."

Mora said he has given away only two game balls in his nearly five seasons at UCLA. The second went to quarterback Mike Fafaul on Saturday.

Fafaul, starting his fourth game in place of Rosen, completed 25 of 47 passes for 281 yards. Mora praised the fifth-year senior for sticking it out and not transferring as a graduate student.

"He played behind Brett (Hundley), and then Josh got the job, and he has hung in there," Mora said. "He's everything that you want in a quarterback in terms of studying the game and it being serious to him. It's just great."

Fafaul's challenge this week against USC will be much more difficult than it was against Oregon State. The Trojans held Washington quarterback Jake Browning to 17-of-36 passing with a pair of interceptions by cornerback Adoree' Jackson.

Fafaul has thrown 10 interceptions in 198 attempts, and if the Trojans could fluster Browning, what will they do to Fafaul?

Darnold has had the advantage of a supporting run game -- Ronald Jones II has 487 yards on the ground in the past three games -- an All-American talent at wide receiver in junior JuJu Smith-Schuster and a veteran offensive line that has begun to play to its potential.

Fafaul has had none of that. UCLA's young line has struggled, there is no game-breaker on the outside and the Bruins are second-to-last nationally in rushing at 87.2 yards per game. UCLA gave carries to five scholarship running backs last week and will try to find hot feet this week from among Bolu Olorunfunmi, Soso Jamabo, Jalen Starks, Nate Starks and Brandon Stephens.

It won't be easy. USC held Washington to 17 rushing yards.

"Big men win the game," Helton said. "On both sides of the ball, our big men are really excelling these last six weeks."

UCLA's hopes rest with a solid defense that has allowed only one opponent (Utah) to score more than 27 points in regulation. Defensive end Takkarist McKinley leads the nation with 2.0 tackles per loss per game.

The rivalry game wraps up the conference season for USC, which finishes at home against Notre Dame. The Trojans are a half-game behind Colorado and hold a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Buffaloes, 6-1 in the league, finish with two games against ranked teams -- Washington State and Utah.

USC needs to win Saturday and have Colorado lose to have a chance to win the Pac-12 South. Utah, which is 5-2 in the Pac-12 with games left against Oregon and Colorado, holds the tiebreaker over USC.

The Trojans have won 13 of the past 17 games against UCLA, although two of the victories were vacated due to NCAA sanctions. USC won 40-21 last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Nov. 20

UCONN at BOSTON COLLEGE... UConn a little better vs. spread on road TY (1-2-2 vs. line) than recent home marks. Diaco only 9-24-2 vs. spread since arriving at UConn in 2014. But BC only 8-14-1 vs. line last 23 on board and 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Chestnut Hill.

Slight to UConn, based on BC woes.


ULM at APPALACHIAN STATE...ULM 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, but has covered last 2. App has failed to cover its last four at Boone.

Slight to ULM, based on team trends.


UTEP at RICE...Bailiff has won and covered 4 of last 5 vs. UTEP including seven straight series covers at home! Though Owls only 6-12-1 last 19 on board since early 2015.

Rice, based on series trends.


MIAMI-FLA at NC STATE...Richt had dropped 4 in a row SU and vs. line prior to last 2 wins. Heels 5-1 vs. spread at home TY.

NC State, based on recent trends.


TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE...Red Raiders have covered last 5 on Big 12 road. Also 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line last 4 vs. ISU. Cyclones have covered 6 of last 8 TY, however, and last four at Ames.

Slight to Iowa State, based on recent trends.


IOWA at ILLINOIS...Iowa 3-5 vs. line last 8 TY, only 2-2 on road after 13-2 spread mark as visitor prior. Lovie only 1-4 vs. line last five TY at home, but that W was in most-recent vs. Mich State.

Iowa, based on extended trends.


NORTHWESTERN at MINNESOTA...Cats 5-1 vs. line last six TY and last 5 as visitor as well. Minnesota only 1-5 vs. spread at home TY.

Northwestern, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN at PURDUE...Chryst 8-2 SU and vs. line TY, 10-2 last 12 since late LY. Also covers last seven away from Camp Randall, and covers 9 of last 10 vs. Purdue. Boilermakers 1-7 vs. points last 7 at Ross-Ade, 3-15 last 18 as home dog.

Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.


DUKE at PITT...Cutcliffe 17-5 last 22 as dog after UNC upset. Dog team has covered last three meetings. Panthers 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at home, 0-4 TY as home chalk.

Duke, based on team trends.


UTSA at TEXAS A&M...UTSA 3-2-1 vs. line as dog. Ags no covers last five TY (0-5-1), 5-11-1 vs. points last 16 as Kyle Field chalk.

UTSA, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at NEBRASKA...Durkin only 1-5 vs. line last six TY in debut season for Terps. Also no covers last four on road. Riley on 9-4-1 spread run since late LY but just 4-6-1 as Lincoln chalk since LY.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA...Stoops 4-0 SU vs. Holgorsen since WVU entered Big 12 and Sooners covers last 2 in series. Though OU no back-to-back covers yet TY and just 1-4 vs. spread away from home. Holgorsen was 0-3 as dog LY and only 2-5 vs. number last seven TY despite sparkling SU mark.

Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.


MTSU at CHARLOTTE...Charlotte has covered alst four as dog TY! Only one cover last seven TY (1-4-2) for Blue Raiders.

Charlotte, based on team trends.


UMASS at BYU...UMass has covered last three TY and is 3-1 as road dog with some good covers in the mix. Sitake 7-3 vs. line TY though Cougs are 0-3 as home chalk.

UMass, based on team trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA...Kirby Smart 0-2 as home chalk TY, Bulldogs 2-7 last 9 in role.

Slight to ULL, based on recent trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at WYOMING...SDSU 15-2 vs. line last 17 MW games, Wyo 5-1 vs. line last six TY. But Aztecs 7-1 vs. spread last 8 MW road and blasted Wyo LY at Qualcomm.

Slight to SDSU, based on extended trends.


NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE...Davie is 0-4 vs. line against CSU since 2012. Rams 7-1-1 vs. line last nine TY.

Colorado State, based on series trends.


INDIANA at MICHIGAN...For all of the Wolverine hype, note Harbaugh just 7-9 last 16 vs. spread in reg. season. Also just 2-3 vs. spread last 5 at home TY and 2-4 last six overall vs. number. IU 7-2 last nine as DD dog.

Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NOTRE DAME...Irish 4-7 last 11 and 5-9 last 14 vs. number. Fuente only 4-4 vs. line as chalk TY.

Slight to Virginia Tech, based on recent trends.


KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR...Bill Snyder has covered 4 of last 6 in series. Grobe only 2-7 vs. line TY and Bears 3-12 vs. number last 15 reg.-season games.

Kansas State, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH... UVa 17-8 as dog since 2014. But home team is 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings.

Slight to Georgia Tech, based on series trends.


FLORIDA STATE at SYRACUSE... FSU yet to cover back-to-back games this season. Home team has covered last three meetings. Jimbo just 5-5 as visiting chalk since 2014. Cuse 3-6 as dog TY.

Slight to Syracuse, based on team and series home trends.


OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Dores have covered 4 of last 6 meetings, and Derek Mason 4-1 as home dog since LY.

Slight to Vandy, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE.. Could be rare chalk role for NMSU, 2-2 in role since 2013. Ags 3-0 vs. points in Las Cruces TY. TSU 3-2 vs. line away TY for Withers after 0-6 spread mark away for Fran LY.

New Mexico State, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at OREGON STATE...Rich-Rod only 1-11 last 12 on board. OSU 5-1 vs. line last six TY, and three straight Ws at Corvallis.

Oregon State, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...Note ASU’s non-stellar 0-4 spread mark on road TY. Graham has won and covered last three years vs. Huskies, however.

Washington, based on ASU road negatives.


WASHINGTON STATE at COLORADO...Note that Leach on 16–6 spread uptick since LY, while MacIntyre 9-1 vs. spread TY and 14-3 last 17 since mid 2015. Leach also 9-1 last ten as dog.

Slight to WSU and Leach, based on extended dog marks.


STANFORD at CAL...Big Game! Cal has lost six straight Big Games, only one cover in that stretch. Bears 5-11 vs. line last 16 reg.-season games. Tree’s best role this season has been on road, where it is 4-1 vs. line, and 9-2 last eleven.

Stanford, based on series trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at NORTH TEXAS... UNT 5-3-1 vs. line last nine this season, USM no covers last six or 8 of last 9 TY.

North Texas, based on recent trends.


ODU at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...ODU has covered six of last seven TY. FAU 6-14-1 last 21 on board, 2-11 last 13 vs. spread as host!

Old Dominion, based on recent trends.


BUFFALO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Bulls on 3-11 spread slide since mid 2015. WMU 24-12 vs. number since 2014.

Western Michigan, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at FIU...Fading Marshall 4-6 vs. line TY. Herd is 2-2 as dog, however. FIU 4-2 vs. line under Ron Cooper, though Golden Panthers 4-9-1 last 14 on board.

Slight to Marshall, based on FIU woes.


ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE..Bielema 5-1 vs. line as visitor since LY. Hogs have covered 3 of last 4 vs. MSU.

Arkansas, based on team trends.


HAWAII at FRESNO STATE...Rolovich was 4-1 vs. line away until running into Aztecs. FSU had covered four straight TY before flat-lining at CSU.

Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at SMU...USF 65-3-1 vs. line TY and 14-4-1 last 19 reg.-season games, including 38-14 romp over Ponies LY. SMU improved 7-3 vs. line TY though just 7-9 as dog since LY.

USF, based on team trends.


TULSA at UCF...Tulsa has covered last five TY and now 10-2 vs. points away from home since LY for Montgomery. Though Scott Frost has forged quite a turnaround at UCF with 8-2 spread mark TY.

Slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at TULANE...Owls have covered nine straight TY and Rhule now 32-16 vs. spread with Temple since 2013. Wave no covers five of last eight TY.

Temple, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio 3-8 last 11 vs. line, 8-16 last 24 on board. Revenge for Buckeyes after 17-14 home loss LY. Dantonio has won 3 of last 4 SU vs. Urban, but not same Spartans TY.

Ohio State, based on MSU negatives.


TEXAS at KANSAS... Horns dominating this series as most have lately vs. KU. Recent numbers are DD wins and covers last three years. Jayhawks just 7-15 vs. line since LY for Beaty.

Texas, based on team and series trends.


CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST...Wake has played Clemson tough, covering last two meetings. Clawson 10-3 last 12 as dog, though Deacs just 2-4 vs. spread last six as host. Dabo just 4-8 as visiting chalk since 2014.

Wake Forest, based on team trends.


MISSOURI at TENNESSEE...Ugh! Tigers no SU wins last 11 SEC games. Mizzou no covers last five TY, though Butch only 2-3 vs. line at home TY.

Slight to Tennessee, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...Ga So 2-8 vs. spread TY, and was routed at home by GSU LY. State 12-4-1 vs. line last 17 reg.-season games but 4-6-1 last 11 at mostly-empty Georgia Dome.

Slight to Georgia State, based on team trends.


USC at UCLA...Bruins had won three straight in series prior to LY’s 40-21 Trojan win. Mora 4-8 last 12 vs. line. Helton on 6-game SU win streak and 5-1 vs. line those, though Troy 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away from Coliseum.

USC, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU...Gundy 3-1 SU and vs. line vs. Patterson since 2012. Frogs just 2-7 vs. spread TY and 0-5 at Fort Worth.

Oklahoma State, based on recent and series trends.


PENN STATE at RUTGERS...James Franklin really rolling with covers last five and 5-0-1 last six (all SU wins). Penn State did not cover all six away from home LY but is 3-1 vs. spread away TY.

Penn State, based on recent trends.


OREGON at UTAH...Utes destroyed Ducks LY 62-20. Oregon only 1-10-1 vs. line last 12 on board and no covers last five away from Eugene. Utes have covered last three at home TY.

Utah, based on recent trends.


AIR FORCE at SAN JOSE STATE...Caragher covers last two and four of last six TY. But Spartans just 16-22 last 38 on line.

Slight to Air Force, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at NEVADA...Utags 3-12 vs. spread last 15 on board and 1-4 last five as road chalk. Pack 2-8 vs. spread TY.

Slight to Nevada, based on USU woes.


NAVY at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 1-6-1 vs. line last eight TY. Mids 14-6-1 last 21 on board.

Navy, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at LSU...McElwain 0-3 vs. line as visitor TY. Tigers have won and covered last three years in series. Orgeron now 11-4 vs. line as interim coach since 2013 at SC and LSU. Tigers 11-5-1 as Baton Rouge chalk since 2014, 6-2-1 last 9 as SEC home chalk.

LSU, based on team and series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday’s best 13 games

Miami scored 85 points in winning its last two games after a 4-game skid; Hurricanes are 3-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 35-14-20 points- they lost at Va Tech, Notre Dame. Average total in Miami’s road games: 53.8. NC State lost four of last five games, is 5-5 despite being an underdog in only three games- they need one more win to go bowling. Wolfpack is 0-4 this season in games decided by 7 or less points- they’re 3-2 at home, losing to BC by 7 (horrible loss), Florida State by 4. ACC home underdogs are 8-9 vs spread in league play.

Northwestern won six of last nine games with Minnesota, with average total in last four 32.3; Wildcats won three of last four visits to Twin Cities. Northwestern needs one more win to go to a bowl; they’re 3-1 on road with wins at Iowa/Michigan State- they covered five of last six games. Minnesota had 4-game win streak snapped at Nebraska LW; Gophers are 4-1 at home, with only loss 14-7 to Iowa. Northwestern is 5-0 when it scores more than 21 points, 0-5 when it scores less; 7 of 10 Minnesota opponents scored more than 21. Big 14 home teams are 21-26 vs spread in league play this year.

Pitt pulled huge upset at Clemson LW, is now bowl eligible, despite giving up 38.4 pts/game vs I-A opponents; Panthers are 3-1 at home, 0-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-3 points and a 39-36 loss to Va Tech. Road team won all three Duke-Pitt games, with underdog covering all three, two of which were 51-48/58-55 shootouts. Duke covered its last five games; its last three games were decided by total of 7 points. Blue Devils are 1-3 on road but 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-10-3 points- they won SU at Notre Dame. ACC home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.

Oklahoma won its last four games with West Virginia, winning 50-49/45-33 in last two visits to Morgantown. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in series. Sooners won their last seven games after a 1-2 start; they’re 3-0 in true road games, 1-2 as a road favorite, with wins on road by 6-7-10 points- they also split pair of neutral field games in Texas. West Virginia won 24-20 at Texas LW in their first game this year as an underdog; WV is 4-0 SU at home this year, 4-4 as home dogs over last decade. Mountaineers held 7 of 9 opponents this season to 21 or less points. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

San Diego State won three of last four games with Wyoming, winning 42-38/48-38 in last two visits here. UNLV ran for 401 yards in 69-66 win over Wyoming LW; if Rebels can do that, Aztecs should do more- they ran for 400-474 yards in last two road games, wins at Utah State/Nevada- they ran for 293-400-292 yards in last three games vs Wyoming. San Diego State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) since mystifying loss at South Alabama; Aztecs allowed 42 points in six Mountain West games (7.0 pts/game). Wyoming scored 37.6 pts/game in its last seven games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this season.

Virginia Tech is 7-3 but allowed 536 YR in last two games, getting upset at Ga Tech LW when Tech’s option attack ran for 309 yards. Hokies are 3-1 in true road games, winning 39-36/24-21 in last two, at Pitt/Duke. Notre Dame is 4-6; its last two games were against service academies. Irish are 2-3 at home this year, losing to Duke-Michigan St-Stanford, all of whom are having sub-par years- their home wins are over Nevada/Miami. Irish have not won consecutive games this year; they allowed 549 RY to Navy/Army. ACC road teams are 10-6 vs spread this season in non-conference games.

Baylor lost its last three games after a 6-0 start, allowing 47.3 pts/game; they lost QB Russell to a broken ankle LW. Bears are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games- they allowed 711 rushing yards in last two games. Kansas State has 826 RY in its last three games; Wildcats are 1-3 on road, with only win 31-26 at Iowa State- they’re 5-3 in last eight games as a road favorite. Baylor won its last four games with Kansas State; they covered three of last four tries as an underdog in this series. K-State lost its last four visits to Waco. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

Underdogs covered four of last five Colorado-Washington State games, two programs on rise- this is possible preview of Pac-12 title game. Wazzu won its last eight games, after an 0-2 start that included a loss to a I-AA team; Coogs scored 38 pts/game in winning last three road games, last two by 3-32/35-31 scores at ASU/Oregon State. Colorado is 8-2 this year, 9-1 vs spread; they won by 10 in only non-cover. Buffs are 2-1 as home favorites this year, with wins in Boulder by 41-24-10 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 15-12 vs spread in conference play this season. Washington State is 14-4 in its last 18 games as a road underdog.

Stanford won its last six games with arch-rival Cal (5-1 vs spread) wth last four wins all by 13+ points. Cardinal won last three visits to Berkeley, by 21-18-34 points. Stanford won its last three games after a 1-3 midseason slump, running ball for 294.7 yds/game; they’re 4-1 on road this year, with wins by 9-7-24-25 points. Cardinal is 3-0 as a road favorite this year, 16-9 under Shaw. Cal lost its last three games, allowing 45-66-56 points; they’re 3-1 at home this year, with average total of 84.8. Golden Bears are 0-4-1 vs spread this year in games with a double digit spread. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Favorites covered seven of last nine Tulsa-Central Florida games, with Tulsa winning five of last six; Golden Hurricane lost three of last four visits to Orlando. Tulsa is 7-3 after losing 42-40 at Navy LW; they’re 2-3 on road, with wins at Fresno (48-41 after trailing 31-0), Memphis (59-30). Average total in their five road games: 75.8. UCF is 6-4 and bowl eligible after being 0-12 LY; Knights are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning 37-6/24-3 last two weeks. UCF is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread; Tulsa is 3-1. AAC home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread this season.

UCLA won three of last four games with USC after a 1-12 series skid before that; last nine series games were all decided by 10+ points. Trojans lost 38-20/38-28 in last two visits here, but USC is on 6-game win streak after their 1-3 start, including big upset at Washington LW. Five of those six USC wins were by 13+ points; Trojans are 2-2 on road, losing at Stanford/Utah, with wins at Arizona/Washington. UCLA needs to wins to go bowling; they’ve lost 4 of last 5 games, are 2-2 vs spread as an underdog this year, 3-2 SU at home, with losses to Stanford/Utah. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Home side won all four Oklahoma State-TCU Big X meetings; Cowboys lost 42-9 in last visit here two years ago. Frogs gained 663-676 TY in last two series games; they’re 5-4, need one more win to go bowling. TCU lost last two home games, to Oklahoma/Texas Tech- they’re 0-4 vs I-A teams when allowing more than 23 points. OSU won its last six games, scoring 42.7 pts/game; they’re 2-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 SU on road, beating two Kansas schools, losing at Baylor. TCU ran for 431 yards in its last game, a 62-22 home win over Baylor. Big X home favorites are 9-10 vs spread this season.

LSU-Florida is rescheduled game after hurricane last month; game was originally scheduled to be in Gainesville. LSU won five of last six series games, taking last three by 7-3-11 points. Gators lost last three visits to Baton Rouge by 7-11-30 points. Florida is 7-2 but 1-2 in true road games, losing 38-28 at Tennessee, 31-10 at Arkansas- they won 13-6 at Vandy. LSU won four of last five games after a 2-2 start caused a coaching change. Tigers are 4-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite with home wins by 3-35-35-17 points- they covered four of last five games. SEC home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday’s best 13 games

Miami scored 85 points in winning its last two games after a 4-game skid; Hurricanes are 3-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 35-14-20 points- they lost at Va Tech, Notre Dame. Average total in Miami’s road games: 53.8. NC State lost four of last five games, is 5-5 despite being an underdog in only three games- they need one more win to go bowling. Wolfpack is 0-4 this season in games decided by 7 or less points- they’re 3-2 at home, losing to BC by 7 (horrible loss), Florida State by 4. ACC home underdogs are 8-9 vs spread in league play.

Northwestern won six of last nine games with Minnesota, with average total in last four 32.3; Wildcats won three of last four visits to Twin Cities. Northwestern needs one more win to go to a bowl; they’re 3-1 on road with wins at Iowa/Michigan State- they covered five of last six games. Minnesota had 4-game win streak snapped at Nebraska LW; Gophers are 4-1 at home, with only loss 14-7 to Iowa. Northwestern is 5-0 when it scores more than 21 points, 0-5 when it scores less; 7 of 10 Minnesota opponents scored more than 21. Big 14 home teams are 21-26 vs spread in league play this year.

Pitt pulled huge upset at Clemson LW, is now bowl eligible, despite giving up 38.4 pts/game vs I-A opponents; Panthers are 3-1 at home, 0-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-3 points and a 39-36 loss to Va Tech. Road team won all three Duke-Pitt games, with underdog covering all three, two of which were 51-48/58-55 shootouts. Duke covered its last five games; its last three games were decided by total of 7 points. Blue Devils are 1-3 on road but 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-10-3 points- they won SU at Notre Dame. ACC home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.

Oklahoma won its last four games with West Virginia, winning 50-49/45-33 in last two visits to Morgantown. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in series. Sooners won their last seven games after a 1-2 start; they’re 3-0 in true road games, 1-2 as a road favorite, with wins on road by 6-7-10 points- they also split pair of neutral field games in Texas. West Virginia won 24-20 at Texas LW in their first game this year as an underdog; WV is 4-0 SU at home this year, 4-4 as home dogs over last decade. Mountaineers held 7 of 9 opponents this season to 21 or less points. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

San Diego State won three of last four games with Wyoming, winning 42-38/48-38 in last two visits here. UNLV ran for 401 yards in 69-66 win over Wyoming LW; if Rebels can do that, Aztecs should do more- they ran for 400-474 yards in last two road games, wins at Utah State/Nevada- they ran for 293-400-292 yards in last three games vs Wyoming. San Diego State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) since mystifying loss at South Alabama; Aztecs allowed 42 points in six Mountain West games (7.0 pts/game). Wyoming scored 37.6 pts/game in its last seven games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this season.

Virginia Tech is 7-3 but allowed 536 YR in last two games, getting upset at Ga Tech LW when Tech’s option attack ran for 309 yards. Hokies are 3-1 in true road games, winning 39-36/24-21 in last two, at Pitt/Duke. Notre Dame is 4-6; its last two games were against service academies. Irish are 2-3 at home this year, losing to Duke-Michigan St-Stanford, all of whom are having sub-par years- their home wins are over Nevada/Miami. Irish have not won consecutive games this year; they allowed 549 RY to Navy/Army. ACC road teams are 10-6 vs spread this season in non-conference games.

Baylor lost its last three games after a 6-0 start, allowing 47.3 pts/game; they lost QB Russell to a broken ankle LW. Bears are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games- they allowed 711 rushing yards in last two games. Kansas State has 826 RY in its last three games; Wildcats are 1-3 on road, with only win 31-26 at Iowa State- they’re 5-3 in last eight games as a road favorite. Baylor won its last four games with Kansas State; they covered three of last four tries as an underdog in this series. K-State lost its last four visits to Waco. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

Underdogs covered four of last five Colorado-Washington State games, two programs on rise- this is possible preview of Pac-12 title game. Wazzu won its last eight games, after an 0-2 start that included a loss to a I-AA team; Coogs scored 38 pts/game in winning last three road games, last two by 3-32/35-31 scores at ASU/Oregon State. Colorado is 8-2 this year, 9-1 vs spread; they won by 10 in only non-cover. Buffs are 2-1 as home favorites this year, with wins in Boulder by 41-24-10 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 15-12 vs spread in conference play this season. Washington State is 14-4 in its last 18 games as a road underdog.

Stanford won its last six games with arch-rival Cal (5-1 vs spread) wth last four wins all by 13+ points. Cardinal won last three visits to Berkeley, by 21-18-34 points. Stanford won its last three games after a 1-3 midseason slump, running ball for 294.7 yds/game; they’re 4-1 on road this year, with wins by 9-7-24-25 points. Cardinal is 3-0 as a road favorite this year, 16-9 under Shaw. Cal lost its last three games, allowing 45-66-56 points; they’re 3-1 at home this year, with average total of 84.8. Golden Bears are 0-4-1 vs spread this year in games with a double digit spread. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Favorites covered seven of last nine Tulsa-Central Florida games, with Tulsa winning five of last six; Golden Hurricane lost three of last four visits to Orlando. Tulsa is 7-3 after losing 42-40 at Navy LW; they’re 2-3 on road, with wins at Fresno (48-41 after trailing 31-0), Memphis (59-30). Average total in their five road games: 75.8. UCF is 6-4 and bowl eligible after being 0-12 LY; Knights are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning 37-6/24-3 last two weeks. UCF is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread; Tulsa is 3-1. AAC home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread this season.

UCLA won three of last four games with USC after a 1-12 series skid before that; last nine series games were all decided by 10+ points. Trojans lost 38-20/38-28 in last two visits here, but USC is on 6-game win streak after their 1-3 start, including big upset at Washington LW. Five of those six USC wins were by 13+ points; Trojans are 2-2 on road, losing at Stanford/Utah, with wins at Arizona/Washington. UCLA needs to wins to go bowling; they’ve lost 4 of last 5 games, are 2-2 vs spread as an underdog this year, 3-2 SU at home, with losses to Stanford/Utah. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Home side won all four Oklahoma State-TCU Big X meetings; Cowboys lost 42-9 in last visit here two years ago. Frogs gained 663-676 TY in last two series games; they’re 5-4, need one more win to go bowling. TCU lost last two home games, to Oklahoma/Texas Tech- they’re 0-4 vs I-A teams when allowing more than 23 points. OSU won its last six games, scoring 42.7 pts/game; they’re 2-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 SU on road, beating two Kansas schools, losing at Baylor. TCU ran for 431 yards in its last game, a 62-22 home win over Baylor. Big X home favorites are 9-10 vs spread this season.

LSU-Florida is rescheduled game after hurricane last month; game was originally scheduled to be in Gainesville. LSU won five of last six series games, taking last three by 7-3-11 points. Gators lost last three visits to Baton Rouge by 7-11-30 points. Florida is 7-2 but 1-2 in true road games, losing 38-28 at Tennessee, 31-10 at Arkansas- they won 13-6 at Vandy. LSU won four of last five games after a 2-2 start caused a coaching change. Tigers are 4-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite with home wins by 3-35-35-17 points- they covered four of last five games. SEC home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 12

Switching back over to playing totals last week with my best bets paid off handsomely as Stanford/Oregon Over, and Illinois/Wisconsin Over cashed with ease.

That makes it three weeks in a row where I've swept the board with these CFB Best Bets and I hope to make it four straight this week.

Last week's games saw the college football playoff picture get shook up dramatically with #2,#3, and #4 all losing outright. The losses by Clemson and Michigan weren't significant enough to knock them out of the Top 4 in this week's rankings, but those programs will likely have to run the table during the rest of the regular season to maintain their spot.

Furthermore, I've mentioned in past weeks that college football teams that suffer their first loss after starting 4-0 or 5-0 SU or better tend to be great 'fades' the following week, so bettors should keep plays on Wake Forest (+22.5), Indiana (+24), and Arizona State (+27) in mind.

Those three schools are up against Clemson, Michigan, and Washington respectively and all three of those teams fit the profile of being bet against after suffering their first outright defeat.

Those three plays aren't part of my Best Bets feature this week but should definitely be considered this weekend as ones to add to your card.

Best Bet #1: Illinois (+10)

The Illini got smoked by Wisconsin last week as we cashed an 'over' ticket there, but they were never expected to really have a chance in that contest. This week is different though as they are back at home (where two of their three SU wins have come) hosting an Iowa team that finds itself in a huge letdown spot.

Iowa pulled off the massive upset by beating Michigan a week ago as 24-point underdogs and there is little chance they come into this week's game with the same focus, motivation, and energy after spending the week reading their press clippings about what they accomplished seven days ago.

That victory over the Wolverines also was the sixth win on the year for the Hawkeyes, accomplishing their goal of being Bowl eligible and there is little doubt they won't be going bowling with a huge win like that one on their resume.

But laying double digits on them in this spot this week is absurd and I wouldn't even be surprised to see Iowa fall victim to their own outright shocking upset either.

For as bad as Illinois looked last week, bettors can't forget about how good they looked two weeks ago in beating Michigan State 31-27. Illinois was in a similar spot that week as they are this one; getting about 10 points and coming off a blowout loss, so I expect the Illini to show up this week.

Best Bet #2: Florida/LSU Over 39

This is the makeup game between these two SEC teams that was cancelled earlier due to the hurricane. Florida was supposed to be the home team in that original contest and clearly switching over to being the visitors does them no favors.

Both of the Gators losses this year have come away from home and as +14.5 underdogs this week, oddsmakers believe they'll add a third one to their record this week. However, this game features a few similarities to that Illinois/Wisconsin game last week when we had the total below 40 points and we could see more points then expected here.

For one, other than the 10-0 loss vs. Alabama, LSU's offense has really opened things up and thrived under interim HC Ed Orgeron. Since the beginning of October, LSU has scored 42, 45, 38, 0, and 38 points in five games. Throw out that gooseegg vs. #1 Alabama and you'll see that things have really started to click offensively for LSU.

Now, the Gators defense is more comparable to 'Bama's then the other opponents on that list, but the Gators have allowed 30+ in two of their last four road games (their two SU defeats) and with this game projected to be another Florida loss, there's a good chance LSU threatens that 30+ point total themselves.

Neither team has been a great 'over' bet all year with a combined 4-12-2 O/U record between the two of them, but like the Illinois/Wisconsin game a week ago, the points put up in this game should surprise many and there is no question that the Gators offense will carry their weight in that regard, unlike the Illini did last week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Nov. 20

UCONN at BOSTON COLLEGE... UConn a little better vs. spread on road TY (1-2-2 vs. line) than recent home marks. Diaco only 9-24-2 vs. spread since arriving at UConn in 2014. But BC only 8-14-1 vs. line last 23 on board and 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Chestnut Hill.

Slight to UConn, based on BC woes.


ULM at APPALACHIAN STATE...ULM 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, but has covered last 2. App has failed to cover its last four at Boone.

Slight to ULM, based on team trends.


UTEP at RICE...Bailiff has won and covered 4 of last 5 vs. UTEP including seven straight series covers at home! Though Owls only 6-12-1 last 19 on board since early 2015.

Rice, based on series trends.


MIAMI-FLA at NC STATE...Richt had dropped 4 in a row SU and vs. line prior to last 2 wins. Heels 5-1 vs. spread at home TY.

NC State, based on recent trends.


TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE...Red Raiders have covered last 5 on Big 12 road. Also 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line last 4 vs. ISU. Cyclones have covered 6 of last 8 TY, however, and last four at Ames.

Slight to Iowa State, based on recent trends.


IOWA at ILLINOIS...Iowa 3-5 vs. line last 8 TY, only 2-2 on road after 13-2 spread mark as visitor prior. Lovie only 1-4 vs. line last five TY at home, but that W was in most-recent vs. Mich State.

Iowa, based on extended trends.


NORTHWESTERN at MINNESOTA...Cats 5-1 vs. line last six TY and last 5 as visitor as well. Minnesota only 1-5 vs. spread at home TY.

Northwestern, based on team trends.


WISCONSIN at PURDUE...Chryst 8-2 SU and vs. line TY, 10-2 last 12 since late LY. Also covers last seven away from Camp Randall, and covers 9 of last 10 vs. Purdue. Boilermakers 1-7 vs. points last 7 at Ross-Ade, 3-15 last 18 as home dog.

Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.


DUKE at PITT...Cutcliffe 17-5 last 22 as dog after UNC upset. Dog team has covered last three meetings. Panthers 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at home, 0-4 TY as home chalk.

Duke, based on team trends.


UTSA at TEXAS A&M...UTSA 3-2-1 vs. line as dog. Ags no covers last five TY (0-5-1), 5-11-1 vs. points last 16 as Kyle Field chalk.

UTSA, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at NEBRASKA...Durkin only 1-5 vs. line last six TY in debut season for Terps. Also no covers last four on road. Riley on 9-4-1 spread run since late LY but just 4-6-1 as Lincoln chalk since LY.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA...Stoops 4-0 SU vs. Holgorsen since WVU entered Big 12 and Sooners covers last 2 in series. Though OU no back-to-back covers yet TY and just 1-4 vs. spread away from home. Holgorsen was 0-3 as dog LY and only 2-5 vs. number last seven TY despite sparkling SU mark.

Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.


MTSU at CHARLOTTE...Charlotte has covered alst four as dog TY! Only one cover last seven TY (1-4-2) for Blue Raiders.

Charlotte, based on team trends.


UMASS at BYU...UMass has covered last three TY and is 3-1 as road dog with some good covers in the mix. Sitake 7-3 vs. line TY though Cougs are 0-3 as home chalk.

UMass, based on team trends.


UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA...Kirby Smart 0-2 as home chalk TY, Bulldogs 2-7 last 9 in role.

Slight to ULL, based on recent trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at WYOMING...SDSU 15-2 vs. line last 17 MW games, Wyo 5-1 vs. line last six TY. But Aztecs 7-1 vs. spread last 8 MW road and blasted Wyo LY at Qualcomm.

Slight to SDSU, based on extended trends.


NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE...Davie is 0-4 vs. line against CSU since 2012. Rams 7-1-1 vs. line last nine TY.

Colorado State, based on series trends.


INDIANA at MICHIGAN...For all of the Wolverine hype, note Harbaugh just 7-9 last 16 vs. spread in reg. season. Also just 2-3 vs. spread last 5 at home TY and 2-4 last six overall vs. number. IU 7-2 last nine as DD dog.

Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NOTRE DAME...Irish 4-7 last 11 and 5-9 last 14 vs. number. Fuente only 4-4 vs. line as chalk TY.

Slight to Virginia Tech, based on recent trends.


KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR...Bill Snyder has covered 4 of last 6 in series. Grobe only 2-7 vs. line TY and Bears 3-12 vs. number last 15 reg.-season games.

Kansas State, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH... UVa 17-8 as dog since 2014. But home team is 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings.

Slight to Georgia Tech, based on series trends.


FLORIDA STATE at SYRACUSE... FSU yet to cover back-to-back games this season. Home team has covered last three meetings. Jimbo just 5-5 as visiting chalk since 2014. Cuse 3-6 as dog TY.

Slight to Syracuse, based on team and series home trends.


OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Dores have covered 4 of last 6 meetings, and Derek Mason 4-1 as home dog since LY.

Slight to Vandy, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE.. Could be rare chalk role for NMSU, 2-2 in role since 2013. Ags 3-0 vs. points in Las Cruces TY. TSU 3-2 vs. line away TY for Withers after 0-6 spread mark away for Fran LY.

New Mexico State, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at OREGON STATE...Rich-Rod only 1-11 last 12 on board. OSU 5-1 vs. line last six TY, and three straight Ws at Corvallis.

Oregon State, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...Note ASU’s non-stellar 0-4 spread mark on road TY. Graham has won and covered last three years vs. Huskies, however.

Washington, based on ASU road negatives.


WASHINGTON STATE at COLORADO...Note that Leach on 16–6 spread uptick since LY, while MacIntyre 9-1 vs. spread TY and 14-3 last 17 since mid 2015. Leach also 9-1 last ten as dog.

Slight to WSU and Leach, based on extended dog marks.


STANFORD at CAL...Big Game! Cal has lost six straight Big Games, only one cover in that stretch. Bears 5-11 vs. line last 16 reg.-season games. Tree’s best role this season has been on road, where it is 4-1 vs. line, and 9-2 last eleven.

Stanford, based on series trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at NORTH TEXAS... UNT 5-3-1 vs. line last nine this season, USM no covers last six or 8 of last 9 TY.

North Texas, based on recent trends.


ODU at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...ODU has covered six of last seven TY. FAU 6-14-1 last 21 on board, 2-11 last 13 vs. spread as host!

Old Dominion, based on recent trends.


BUFFALO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Bulls on 3-11 spread slide since mid 2015. WMU 24-12 vs. number since 2014.

Western Michigan, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at FIU...Fading Marshall 4-6 vs. line TY. Herd is 2-2 as dog, however. FIU 4-2 vs. line under Ron Cooper, though Golden Panthers 4-9-1 last 14 on board.

Slight to Marshall, based on FIU woes.


ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE..Bielema 5-1 vs. line as visitor since LY. Hogs have covered 3 of last 4 vs. MSU.

Arkansas, based on team trends.


HAWAII at FRESNO STATE...Rolovich was 4-1 vs. line away until running into Aztecs. FSU had covered four straight TY before flat-lining at CSU.

Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at SMU...USF 65-3-1 vs. line TY and 14-4-1 last 19 reg.-season games, including 38-14 romp over Ponies LY. SMU improved 7-3 vs. line TY though just 7-9 as dog since LY.

USF, based on team trends.


TULSA at UCF...Tulsa has covered last five TY and now 10-2 vs. points away from home since LY for Montgomery. Though Scott Frost has forged quite a turnaround at UCF with 8-2 spread mark TY.

Slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at TULANE...Owls have covered nine straight TY and Rhule now 32-16 vs. spread with Temple since 2013. Wave no covers five of last eight TY.

Temple, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio 3-8 last 11 vs. line, 8-16 last 24 on board. Revenge for Buckeyes after 17-14 home loss LY. Dantonio has won 3 of last 4 SU vs. Urban, but not same Spartans TY.

Ohio State, based on MSU negatives.


TEXAS at KANSAS... Horns dominating this series as most have lately vs. KU. Recent numbers are DD wins and covers last three years. Jayhawks just 7-15 vs. line since LY for Beaty.

Texas, based on team and series trends.


CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST...Wake has played Clemson tough, covering last two meetings. Clawson 10-3 last 12 as dog, though Deacs just 2-4 vs. spread last six as host. Dabo just 4-8 as visiting chalk since 2014.

Wake Forest, based on team trends.


MISSOURI at TENNESSEE...Ugh! Tigers no SU wins last 11 SEC games. Mizzou no covers last five TY, though Butch only 2-3 vs. line at home TY.

Slight to Tennessee, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...Ga So 2-8 vs. spread TY, and was routed at home by GSU LY. State 12-4-1 vs. line last 17 reg.-season games but 4-6-1 last 11 at mostly-empty Georgia Dome.

Slight to Georgia State, based on team trends.


USC at UCLA...Bruins had won three straight in series prior to LY’s 40-21 Trojan win. Mora 4-8 last 12 vs. line. Helton on 6-game SU win streak and 5-1 vs. line those, though Troy 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away from Coliseum.

USC, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU...Gundy 3-1 SU and vs. line vs. Patterson since 2012. Frogs just 2-7 vs. spread TY and 0-5 at Fort Worth.

Oklahoma State, based on recent and series trends.


PENN STATE at RUTGERS...James Franklin really rolling with covers last five and 5-0-1 last six (all SU wins). Penn State did not cover all six away from home LY but is 3-1 vs. spread away TY.

Penn State, based on recent trends.


OREGON at UTAH...Utes destroyed Ducks LY 62-20. Oregon only 1-10-1 vs. line last 12 on board and no covers last five away from Eugene. Utes have covered last three at home TY.

Utah, based on recent trends.


AIR FORCE at SAN JOSE STATE...Caragher covers last two and four of last six TY. But Spartans just 16-22 last 38 on line.

Slight to Air Force, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at NEVADA...Utags 3-12 vs. spread last 15 on board and 1-4 last five as road chalk. Pack 2-8 vs. spread TY.

Slight to Nevada, based on USU woes.


NAVY at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 1-6-1 vs. line last eight TY. Mids 14-6-1 last 21 on board.

Navy, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at LSU...McElwain 0-3 vs. line as visitor TY. Tigers have won and covered last three years in series. Orgeron now 11-4 vs. line as interim coach since 2013 at SC and LSU. Tigers 11-5-1 as Baton Rouge chalk since 2014, 6-2-1 last 9 as SEC home chalk.

LSU, based on team and series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Post: 6:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$10000 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS $8000 IN LAST 5 STARTS. AE: CLAIMING $15,000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 JAKARDEZ 8/1
# 2 IDA SOFIA 6/1
# 3 DREAM BALL 6/5

JAKARDEZ is the strongest bet in this outing and could score at a price in here. Could definitely take this group given the 86 speed rating earned in her last affair. IDA SOFIA - Worth thinking about here based on the ratings in the speed rating department alone. Comes into this affair with very good TrackMaster class stats as compared to the group - take a good look. DREAM BALL - Sometimes you just have to go with good feelings, lean toward this one's chances. That 83 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent contest puts this solid standardbred in the mix in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 111

FRANK J. DE FRANCIS MEMORIAL DASH S. - GRADE 3 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY FREE SUBSCRIPTION. $1250 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. $1250 ADDITIONAL TO START WITH $250,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH AND 1% TO SIXTH. WEIGHTS: THREE-YEAR-OLDS, 122 LBS., OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $150,000 TWICE IN 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS.;


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 STALLWALKIN' DUDE 5/2

# 8 X Y JET 9/5

# 4 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY 6/1

STALLWALKIN' DUDE has a very good shot to take this race. Has been consistently racing well as of late. Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. Is a solid contender based on numbers earned lately under today's conditions. X Y JET - Has to be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a major improvement for this gelding. WEEKEND HIDEAWAY - Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figs of this group of horses in his last race. Has to be considered a definite contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a really good Saturday afternoon of playing the ponies on tap, with the feature being the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The Jackpot is the anchor leg of an all stakes Pick 4 at Delta Downs with a $200,000 guarantee (which surely will go over, so tracks just stop it with the stupid “guarantees” which basically mean nothing of value to us).

What is of value is the fact that the takeout for the Pick 4 is just 12%, which I believe is the lowest takeout for a Pick 4 wager in the U.S., making it a great value wager. Toss in the fact we have four competitive fields, and it should pay very well.

I included all four legs of the Pick 4 in my Best Plays Report which also includes my strongest plays from Aqueduct and Del Mar.

The Pick 4 sequence starts with the fourth race, which is the $250,000 Delta Mile that drew a field of seven. Great Minds is the 5-2 morning line favorite but Rise Up (4-1) looms a danger to take the field gate to wire.

The $75,000 Sam’s Town drew a dozen going seven furlongs. The truth or Else looks like a legit favorite and is 9-5 on the morning line.

The $400,000 Delta Downs Princess (G3) drew a competitive field of 10 juvenile fillies that will go one mile. This is a very tricky race and one where I may end up going deep on my Pick 4 ticket.

The Delta Jackpot is not an easy puzzle to solver either. As you can see below I landed on Our Stormin Norman, who earned a solid number breaking his maiden and with just two dirt starts under his belt looks as if he still has some upside.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#2 Guick 5-1
#7 Sicilia Mike 7-5
#3 Disavow 4-1
#9 Nutzforboltz 8-1

Analysis: Guick tracked the early pace while down along a deep rail and faded to finish ninth in his debut, sent off at 9-2 in a field of 12. He figures to move forward with race under his belt and this is not a real tough looking group of state breds he runs into here. The Englehart barn is 15% winners with second out maidens. Decent value if he goes off near his 5-1 morning line. He is out of a Gold Token mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date.

Sicilia Mike was a good second at 25-1 in his debut and showed that was no fluke with another good effort in a runner up finish last out at 5-2. His last pair of speed figs are tops in here and he is the obvious one to beat but his price is going to be on the short side. By Girolamo out of a Tiznow mare, her first foal to race.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 2,3,7,9
TRI: 2,7 / 2,3,7,9 / 2,3,5,7,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Arie Schiller (3:47 ET)
#8 Night Prowler 6-1
#1 Jay Gatsby 5-2
#5 Blacktype 5-1
#10 Heart to Heart 3-1

Analysis: Night Prowler looks primed for a top effort here in his third start off the layoff for the Chad Brown barn. Last year this guy won the Transylvania (G3) at Keeneland and missed in the Penn Mile (G3) in a photo. He was a good looking winner last out against optional claimers in his second start off the bench, earning a career top speed fig. He should get a good tracking trip from mid pack behind what could be a sharp early pace. The 6-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Jay Gatsby tracked the early pace and finished gamely for the runner up spot last out in the Knickerbocker (G3) at nine furlongs, beaten a half-length by Heart to Heart. The Jerkens trainee was beaten in photos two and three back at 1 1/16 miles and the cut back here to a mile should suit him.

Blacktype was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early pace and came with a mild late rally to finish third in the Knickerbocker. He won the Commonwealth Turf Cup (G2) two back at a mile at Laurel Park and has earned four straight triple digit Beyers. His best puts him in the mix and he may end up getting overlooked on the tote.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,5,8,10
TRI: 1,8 / 1,5,8,10 / 1,2,5,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Delta Downs:

DED Race 7 The Delta Downs Jackpot G3 (4:45 CT)
#4 Our Stormin Norman 8-1
#6 Gunnevera 5-2
#8 Hot Sean 7-2
#10 Tip Tap Tapizar 10-1

Analysis: Our Stormin Norman took the field gate to wire to break his maiden last out at Keeneland in his fifth career start. Just one runner has come out of that race to run back, fifth place finisher Creative Courage ran second beaten a neck at Churchill Downs in his next outing. The colt showed some promise with a runner up finish in his debut on dirt at Churchill Downs, but then his trainer Mark Casse tried him on turf in his next three starts, a third at the Spa his best finish. The switch back to dirt has suited him and the $250,000 purchase is bred to be pretty good on dirt. He is by Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Blame out of the stakes winner Stroll By ($42,340) who was a dirt sprinter. The colt owns the top last out speed fig and gets a class test here he may be up to.

Gunnevera is the lone graded stakes winner in the field, taking the Saratoga Special (G2) in August. The colt returned in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland for his first go around two turns, was off last and was not much of a threat in a fifth-place finish, beaten 6 ¾ lengths for the top spot. The winner Classic Empire came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in his next outing at Santa Anita. He reunites with Castellano who was aboard for his win two back. He is the logical one to beat but his price may end up on the light side.

Hot Sean ships in for the west coast for the Bob Baffert barn. The colt broke his maiden in his second career start at 6 ½ furlongs and he beat Alw-1 foes last out of the stretch out to a mile. The early fractions in his win last out where slow but the rack was playing slow that day. The colt was a $550,000 Keeneland purchase and a half to a couple of stakes winners, top earner Itsaknockout ($398,010).

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 4,6,8,10
TRI: 4,6 / 4,6,8,10 / 2,4,5,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 8 OClm $100,000C (4:00 PT)
#8 Wanstead Gardens 5-1
#9 Perfectly Majestic 5-1
#7 Itsinthepost 3-1
#5 Atomic Rule 4-1

Analysis: Wanstead Gardens stalked the early pace and could not make up any ground late in a seventh-place finish in the John Henry (G3), beaten three lengths for the top spot. He has won 3 of 7 over the turf here including beating optional claimers here three back at nine furlongs. He gets some class relief and looks like a good fit in this spot and the 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Perfectly Majestic made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out in the restricted Lure at Santa Anita last out going a mile. The gelding has won twice over the turf here but is not proven at nine furlongs. He runs consistent numbers over his last five starts including a neck loss at Kentucky Downs three back in the restricted Old Friend at 1 mile and 70 yards. He should get some pace to run at and it sure looks as if he has been finishing up well enough he should be able to handle the extra ground at this level.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 5,7,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 5,7,8,9 / 2,5,7,8,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #9 Nutzforboltz 8-1
R2: #6 It’s a Given 8-1
R3: #5 T Loves a Fight 8-1
R4: #3 Cause of the Royal 10-1
R5: #6 La Cat Warrior 12-1
R7: #5 true Timber 8-1
R9: #1 Puppy Manners 8-1
R9: #9 Regulus 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 2:36pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#13 SILENT AUCTION (ML=4/1)
#9 YARMORKA (ML=8/1)
#3 PENNY STAMP (ML=12/1)


SILENT AUCTION - This rider and handler's equines have been generating a beneficial return on investment. Not much speed in this race other than this horse. YARMORKA - I have to like this filly's chances of winning at the shorter distance. Callaghan was aboard this filly last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Woodbine, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think she's got a chance. PENNY STAMP - Silvera drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this horse is in a good spot at this level. This mare is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. Finished out of the money last out at Woodbine, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 12/1 makes me think she's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 SIMPLE AS THAT (ML=3/1), #5 MORE THAN BANDEAU (ML=6/1), #2 FOREST PIKE (ML=8/1),

SIMPLE AS THAT - In the last event this steed finished seventh. Doesn't look promising for her chances this time out. Will be tough for this mount to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. MORE THAN BANDEAU - The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant. FOREST PIKE - Awfully difficult to play this racer when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness of late. When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to notch a better fig than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #13 SILENT AUCTION to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [3,9,13] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Post: 11:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 87 - Purse:$14000 - NW $6,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $12,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 CHAMPAGNE PHIL 4/1
# 8 BIGTOWN HERO 3/1
# 4 SPINFINITI 10/1

Feel pretty confident putting money down on CHAMPAGNE PHIL. The knowledge group knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice win. With a really good 88 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race. Post 6 has been winning at a much better than average percentage, suggesting nice probability of success in this race. BIGTOWN HERO - A really strong class horse can't be overlooked. With an average class rating of 91 all signs say it's go time. Looks like a strong selection in this group of horses and his successful winning percentage says he has the determination to score in this one. SPINFINITI - This fine animal may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise.