Saturday 11/14/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS AND Y/O GANADOR DE $10,000 DESDE 14 MAYO 2015 THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 30, 2015 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14, 2015 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SINCE SEPTEMBER 14, 2015 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 POKER DAVE 1/1

# 2 WHYJOEWHY 15/1

# 5 MORAVITZ 5/1

I think POKER DAVE is a decent choice. Put up a very good speed rating last time out. Is worth a look and may be a bet - strong speed figures (76 average) at today's distance and surface recently. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 7 for 41 in his races recently. WHYJOEWHY - Has formidable early lick and ought to fare very well versus this field. Overall, this handler has been profitable at this distance/surface. MORAVITZ - Win percentage with this rider and conditioner combo - 25 percent - strong. Could beat this field given the 84 speed figure posted in his last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $4800 Class Rating: 66

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 EXECUTIVE REIGN 3/1

# 10 GENIUS JESS 5/2

# 3 BEYOND THE LEGACY 2/1

EXECUTIVE REIGN is the best bet in this race. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 51 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this group of horses. He has garnered strong numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of horses. GENIUS JESS - Will most likely go to the front end and could never look back. Will make a strong outing versus this field of horses. BEYOND THE LEGACY - Will most likely go to the lead and could never look back. Has a solid shot in this race if you like back class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Starter Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 WINKATDAWAT (ML=3/1)
#1 OLTRE' ORO (ML=4/1)
#7 LOVE YOUR HUMOR (ML=8/1)


WINKATDAWAT - Changes tracks from last out at Keeneland to here. Multiple wins at multiple race tracks tell me this one likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. OLTRE' ORO - This gelding is in good form, having run a nice race on October 18th, finishing first. Hernandez is right back for another event today after riding aboard this animal for the first ride on October 18th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. LOVE YOUR HUMOR - This jockey and conditioner have a positive ROI when they join forces. Connelly moves this thoroughbred here to Churchill Downs from Ellis Park. Looking at the horse's PP lines, he has shown the ability to win on different tracks.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CHALICE (ML=4/1), #4 GENTLEMAN'S HONOR (ML=5/1), #8 LEWIS CIELO (ML=5/1),

CHALICE - On a downward sequence. Speed figs keep lessening. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a much better speed figure than last time out to battle in this dirt route. GENTLEMAN'S HONOR - 5/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when checking the most recent showings. Finished sixth in his most recent effort with a common speed rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field. LEWIS CIELO - Don't think that this gelding has value at 5/1 this time around.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 WINKATDAWAT to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,2,7] with [1,2,7] with [1,2,4,6,7] with [1,2,4,6,7] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Del Mar - Race #4 - Post: 1:59pm - Optional Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $53,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 NOT TOO SHINY (ML=4/1)
#7 CODACIOUS (ML=7/2)
#2 RADIANT JOURNEY (ML=6/1)


NOT TOO SHINY - Graham comes to ride after getting to know the mare in the last contest. When I handicap a turf race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This horse has the highest average class in the entire group. Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. Changes tracks from last out at Santa Anita to here. Multiple wins on different tracks tell me this animal likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign. CODACIOUS - Speed ratings on the turf point to this horse as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance and surface. RADIANT JOURNEY - This filly is a gem of consistency, almost always in-the-money. I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per start in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 LILY POD (ML=5/2), #1 PERDONA (ML=4/1), #6 SKY FOREVER (ML=5/1),

LILY POD - Pace is so influential, and this early speedball is going to have an early speed duel on her hands. PERDONA - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from horses in sprint affairs that haven't finished in the money in sprint contests of late. SKY FOREVER - Could be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CODACIOUS - Ran hard for the first two calls at Santa Anita last out, then lost ground but finished even. Look for a more consistent effort today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #11 NOT TOO SHINY to win if you can get odds of 7/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,7,11] with [2,7,11] with [1,2,6,7,11] with [1,2,6,7,11] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 3:14 PM EASTERN POST

The Red Smith Handicap

11.0 FURLONGS TURF GRADE III THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $250,000.00 PURSE

#1 CATRON
#3 WAR DANCER
#7 MR. SPEAKER
#6 KAIGUN

Well folks ... this race was originally run as The Edgemere Handicap until 1981. The Red Smith Handicap honors the late sportswriter Walter Wellesley "Red" Smith (1905-1982). A Pulitzer Prize winner in 1976, Smith covered sports for 55 years, most notably for The New York Herald Tribune and later The New York Times, writing a widely syndicated column for both outlets. According to his obituary published in the Times: "He preferred covering sports like baseball, football, boxing and horse playing ('not horse racing,' he emphasized) and disdained what he called 'back and forth' sports like basketball and hockey." Here in the 59th renewal of this graded stakes test, #1 CATRON has produced a quartet of "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in his last five outings, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his 4th and 5th races back. #3 WAR DANCER, a 5-1 shot, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony,", drops in class (-3), is the overall speed leader in this field, and like my top pick, has also produced four "POWER RUNS" in his respective last five starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 11/14 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (50 - 78 / $175.60): LUCKY DALI (2nd)

Spot Play: MAJOR MONET (11th)


Race 1

(6) SHEZ A SWIFT will look to make it two straight wins against a suspect bunch. (5) LIL MISS KNUCKLES made up some ground late last out but probably needs a good setup to hit the top spot. (7) BUST MY CHOPS mare looks terrible on paper but has a history of competing at this level.

Race 2

(10) LUCKY DALI if the filly minds her manners she beats this field. (1) LOLLIPOP has shown improvement and gets the best post. (6) SASSY ELLIE picks up a positive driver change and should offer a big price.

Race 3

(5) PRINCESS GIRL drew off against similar in two straight when last seen at the track. (7) DIVENELY FLOOZY is tough to endorse but finds a weak field. (3) JESSE'S POTION is 0 for her career but could get a piece in the right scenario.

Race 4

(7) AJ GET'S THE MONEY will offer a big price and could be ready for a better effort. (6) READY was much better last week; threat. (1) FOX VALLEY NORMAN gets sent out for proven connections first start back off the layoff.

Race 5

(9) PARKLANE INDY sophomore pacer owns a good brush and finds another weak bunch; fires late. (8) WOLF CREEK PEGASUS paced a decent mile last out and has room to improve. (3) POKER JOE has a tendency to lack stamina late; use underneath.

Race 6

(3) MOON BAY DANCER couldn't pace the turns on the smaller track and now finds an ideal spot to do some damage. (4) HOOSIERS FANTASY mare has been very consistent for a new barn. (2) WESTERN BOUDOIR mare looks terrible on paper but owns wins at this level on the year.

Race 7

(2) HELLO MY DREAM pacing mare has lots of room to improve second start back off a long layoff. (5) GENTLE JANET has been sharp in three straight. (10) NORTHERN DALI made easy work of this same bunch last start. It will be tougher this week with the far outside post.

Race 8

(3) REVRAC HARBOUR has been facing much tougher in Indiana but does have a history of burning cash this year. (1) BIG EXPENSE will look to make it three straight wins up in class; driver's choice. (7) HUDSON JESSE has been off her game for a few months but her best effort is good enough.

Race 9

(7) FIVEKNUCKLESHUFFLE gelding finds a much softer spot than what he's been used to. (3) COMPANY MAN gets sent out for a trainer who has a good history at the track. (2) SUNSET DREAMER was the driver's choice off a nice win.

Race 10

(7) JINXY'S DELIGHT might be good enough to keep on winning even rising up the class ladder. (4) FINANCIAL EFFORT mare takes a significant drop in class; threat. (1) JUST BY DESIGN mare does her best racing at this track and looks to be in line for a great trip up close.

Race 11

(6) MAJOR MONET veteran pacer has been much better since the layoff a few months back and picks up the top driver. (2) EXTRAVAGANT ART doesn't win often but is a threat at this level. (10) LUCPARK sophomore pacer has had a down year but did show some life late last week; use underneath.

Race 12

(8) WHISKERSONKITTENS has the most upside in the race and finds a group ripe for the picking. (3) FOX VALLEY RUBY faces significantly weaker; versatile. (4) PRINCESS MIMI bumps up in class and probably needs more.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 11/14 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,5/3,8/1,6/1,4,5,7/2,3,6,8 = $25.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,5,7/2,3,6,8/4,6,9/5 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 1,5/1,3/1,3,6,8/2,3,6,9 = $64

MEET STATS: 69 - 251 / 318.50 BEST BETS: 12 - 22 / $41.90

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 22 / 54.10

Best Bet: MARQUIS VOLO (2nd)

Spot Play: HIS BOY ELROY (4th)


Race 1

We won't get $17 on (5) PRESCOTTS HOPE again this week, but if he repeats anything close to his sensational mile last Saturday he will be a repeater. (2) EVENIN OF PLEASURE almost surely will sit in the choice's pocket and is the one that will benefit if that one falters late. (4) ELLIS PARK was driven aggressively to no avail vs. the choice last week. He can contend here but needs a trip probably.

Race 2

(3) MARQUIS VOLO is on quite a roll and a good bet to take his sixth straight here. (8) STORMONT WIZARD fires home quickly in every start and could threaten the choice if put into the race early enough. (7) THE MURMURING PAN can be sensational when he behaves but the breaks in his past two starts are very concerning.

Race 3

(1) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT seems to hold a class edge on this NW 3 group and should be prominent throughout. (6) GRONK went a big trip last week to win for the second time this year. A repeat of that effort puts him right there on the wire. (5) TAROT raced okay vs. a very hot horse last time and retains the leading driver. He should make the ticket.

Race 4

(1) HIS BOY ELROY had no shot of winning racing against a massive speed bias a week ago but appears to have a favorable pace setup here providing the track is playing somewhat fair. (4) HUNCH MAN was no match for a very sharp winner but has been racing well and fits here. (7) CHUCARO ACERO BC ships in and doesn't need to knock her time down much to compete. Trainer Menary should have her ready to roll.

Race 5

(6) MONTEZUMA BLUE CHIP unleashed an impressive late charge to win in his first start for leading trainer Moreau last week; call to repeat. (8) CAJON LIGHTNING has hit the board for several starts in a row and can be raced effectively from anywhere; using. (3) FRANKIE BOY ships in sporting some fast miles but may need one considering he hasn't raced in 4 1/2 weeks.

Race 6

(6) MR LOVER couldn't get to a leader that had too easy of a time of it in the first 5/8ths of a mile last week. The speed-biased track did him no favors, either. He should get a great pace setup here. (9) MYSTERY BET is another that will be flying late if he stays flat. (4) BIG RICH ships in and goes for Moreau, who is deadly with new acquisitions. Toss him on your early Pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(5) CHEYENNE REIDER was compromised by the speed-favoring track last week. He has a much better shot here as does (1) CRAFTY MASTER, who raced great considering closers weren't closing much that entire card. (9) TRACK MASTER D returns from a break and looks sharp. He has to be considered with those connections.

Race 8

(5) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT raced great in his comeback race and it's logical that he will get more aggressive here. This 21-time winner looks ready to add to that total here. (1) J CS JAKE continues to race great and is the one to knock off. (2) STAN THE MAN took a lot of money last week and almost lasted on the front end. He needs to find a quicker final 1/4 to get home first.

Race 9

(3) DRACHAN HANOVER raced very well against a distant winner last week and now drops and could pop here. (1) BILBO HANOVER blew by the leaders like they were standing still on his way to a big win and is the one to beat here, likely as the odds-on choice. (6) CHAMPAGNE PHIL looks best of the rest.

Race 10

(6) DAZZLING ROCKETTE unleashed a wild rally down the lane last time out and could take this group despite the class rise. (1) INVEST IN ART drops slightly and picks up Lasix after setting a quick pace and fading from the 10-hole. She should be better here. (3) RIDE AWAY SHARK easily won two straight and set quicker fractions the 2nd time. She's another contender in a field with many.

Race 11

(2) C L ART MAGIC had his win streak snapped last week when he was engaged in an all-out war in the back half. He can rebound racing back on a 7-day cycle. (6) AMERICAN ROCK debuts for the top barn and is the main threat. (3) JAKE LOEWEN has been closing well every week and could win this if there is some mid-race action up front. (9) SPORTS LIGHTNING was a strong first-up winner last time and will likely be closing off cover here. (10) SENIOR MARKET is in great form and could share at what will be a big price from out there.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/14 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00 BEST BETS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: JOLLY JUBITER (6th)

Spot Play: DULL ROAR (11th)


Race 1

(8) RODEO ROMEO sprinted home willingly in a very useful qualifier last week. Rocknroll Hanover-sired 3-year-old displayed hints of ability earlier this year and could be ready to fire off the bench versus a questionable group. (6) ALL THE COOKIES road a pocket trip to victory in his career debut. He could be an overbet favorite. (5) BETTOR MEMORIES also raced well in his first pari-mutuel start.

Race 2

(1) SPIDER MAN HANOVER just didn’t have it in the Breeders Crown final. I’m not sure he is that far behind some of the others in here from a talent standpoint and the price should be reasonable. (3) BOSTON RED ROCKS was certainly sharp in his qualifier, but looms a short price off his Breeders Crown win and wasn’t exactly a top contender going in. (8) BIG TOP HANOVER seems to be getting better at the right time. That said, he didn’t beat much in the Matron.

Race 3

(4) CELEBRITY EXPRESS made an aggressive brush to the front in the Kindergarten only to break at the head of the lane. There seems to be some ability in this $200K yearling purchase. (7) MARION MARAUDER has raced well nearly all year and was a credible second behind divisional leader Southwind Frank in the Breeders Crown. My only concern is his lack of early speed combined with an outer post. (2) MILLIGAN’S SCHOOL has displayed the ability to step up with a big mile; dangerous.

Race 4

With 34 second- and third-place finishes versus 10 wins over the last two years (2) ROCKIN WIZARD could be considered risky in the top spot, but he finds a short field and has the early speed to control the tempo. (7) DARCEE N appears to be in a slightly easier spot. The last time Yannick Gingras drove this gelding, he won. (4) MIGHTY PERUVIAN N fits nicely with this group; obvious contender.

Race 5

(6) LAGERFELD jumped it off in the Breeders Crown but all his prior efforts were solid. It shouldn’t hurt that Gingras returns to the bike. (2) DOG GONE LUCKY is riding a three-race winning streak and that makes him the one to beat; must use. (5) BAR HOPPING has plenty of ability and could be overlooked in the wagering with Takter in the sulky.

Race 6

(2) JOLLY JUBITER faces a blank field and fits right in. Trainer Jordan Derue had plenty of success with 5 wins in 17 starts from January to August at this track. (5) ROCK FAME & (7) RED ROCK ship in from Freehold (as do most of these) with form and should make some noise during the mile.

Race 7

(2) RESOLVE has been a bridesmaid more than I would like to see this year, but he has inside position and figures to be in a perfect spot in the stretch. (5) E L TITAN has been selectively spotted with only five starts on the year. That said, this guy is as talented as any in the field. (1) OBRIGADO charged home with no shot in his qualifier; obvious one to use.

Race 8

(6) HOPE FOR BADLANDS matched his career best in his second start for trainer Mark Capone. This spot is much tougher, but I’m willing to take a shot that the veteran conditioner has this guy figured out. (7) BURKENTINE HANOVER disappointed last time as the odds-on favorite at Vernon. All his prior starts were against tougher company. He is very dangerous. (4) STEADY PULSE was unlucky to get into a tougher division of this class; using underneath.

Race 9

(2) TALK SHOW stalled some on the final turn but kicked in strongly late in his most recent qualifier. The talent is there if he brings his best game. (3) IDEAL ROCKY had no shot from post eight at Dover most recently. All of his prior efforts are good. (7) CHECK SIX displayed plenty of ability earlier in the year. Is he ready with just one qualifier after two months off? (8) KATIES ROCKER had a long trip at Dover last time; worth considering.

Race 10

(2) THAT’S MY OPINION was a bit flat after a two and a half month break. This is a great spot for him. (5) BETTOR BELIEVE IT also makes his second start off the bench; main threat. (8) HANDS OFF FRANK is fast enough but lacks any recent form.

Race 11

(2) DULL ROAR has a plethora of angles in his favor. He drops in class for a barn that excels with that move, adds Gingras in the bike and is a proven winner at the Meadowlands. (4) AHDOUGHNOLUM won during the summer at this level here. As mentioned earlier, this barn has done well here this year. (1) ELECTRIFY gets a big driver change to Tim Tetrick and deserves some consideration.

Race 12

(6) JK ENDOFANERA is a bit of a one-run horse, but should get smooth sailing in this abbreviated field and have every chance. (2) DOO WOP HANOVER qualified in good order and should bring a solid effort to the track. (4) LUCK BE WITHYOU comes off a solid second-place finish behind Always B Miki at Balmoral.

Race 13

It is hard to love any of these horses in the top spot. I’ll take a shot with (6) BILLABONG BEACH, who projects as a 1:52-1:53 pacer off his out-of-town form and adds Gingras. (3) RESTLESS NATIVE has early speed and consistent recent form. (9) EIGHT TEN EOM comes off a monster mile, but at 4 for 58 over the last two years, I doubt a repeat performance is coming. (4) BREAK DANCER has at least won a race here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 11/14 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 359 - 1072 / $1,984.50 BEST BETS: 53 - 86 / $185.50

Best Bet: CROMBIE A (4th)

Spot Play: TEXICAN N (12th)


Race 1

(1) JD'S CALEB MAN was gapping cover and was all out to prevail in his last effort, but the fact remains that he did win that race and is facing similar tonight. Allard trainee usually gets very brave when drawn inside and is allowed to control the action. (2) EIGHTEEN drops in class off a good effort and draws well again. (4) MC DYNAMITE should be a bit closer tonight and will be coming late.

Race 2

(1) SHADY CITY has raced well in all recent and seems to be a perfect fit at this NW18000 level. (3) ZIGGY SKY jogged right off the Banca claim and seems sharp enough and capable of the class hike. (4) CLASSIESISTAR N gets class and post relief and just missed at this level four back.

Race 3

(1) PREPARTY didn't take any money and never got involved upon arrival for Allard. Well-bred 4-year-old now lands all the way inside and should be aggressively handled. (7) IDEAL COWBOY is arguably in career form and he comes off a win against Take It Back Terry, but this is a tough spot with some speedy rivals inside of him. (2) CHEYENNE SEEBER should be close up throughout and he's proven he can compete with this type.

Race 4

(3) CROMBIE A drops in class again and it's not exactly like he's been bad in recent efforts; Allard import looks best here. (1) SECOND WIND N gets needed post relief with obviously makes him a contender. (4) STATESMAN N surprised me by finishing sharply last week after rolling wide and he can build off that effort.

Race 5

(2) VALIDUS DEO doesn't win all that often but he's raced well in his last two versus better and seems very logical with the good post draw. (3) YS LOTUS returns to Yonkers with class and post relief; Dube may be on the engine early. (4) FOOL ME ONCE also gets post relief and seems capable of better.

Race 6

(5) STAY UP LATE went nowhere last week trying to grind into a sharp winner but he was sharp in his two prior starts and the Godinez trainee seems capable with a live trip. (3) FAMEOUS WESTERN drops back to the level of his last win. (1) EMPEROR MONTANA N has to be considered due to landing the best post.

Race 7

(2) GOBAN tried up first up last week into the well-rated leader and weakened without much of a fight but he's shown live moves and versatility in the past; price should be decent, even from this inside post. (4) CYCLONE KIWI N recently added Lasix and has been much, much better. (1) ROGER MACH EM was a upset winner two back versus similar with Gregory in the bike.

Race 8

(7) THE REAL ONE needs a bit of help from this outside spot but he's been sharp for ages and Lachance can mow these down with the right setup. (2) PASS THEM BY N has been super in his last three, including last week when he put a scare into Dynamic Youth. (4) LUCAN HANOVER was worn down by two tough rivals last out; no shame in that.

Race 9

(2) SANTANNA ONE was hung to dry the other day; toss that race out and his prior starts have all been solid. Chance here with the improved post. (6) REUBEN BROGDEN N drops in claiming price off a couple of flat efforts; gelding was Sears' choice. (3) SIX GUN faltered on the front end last out but I have to believe the Garcia-Herrera trainee is still sharp.

Race 10

(6) UNCLE GOODFELLOW exits claimers and finds a tougher spot but he's too sharp to ignore. (4) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE always gives a good accounting of himself. Tonight he's down in class and picks up Sears; here's your likely favorite. (2) IN COMMANDO held for a board spot after an uncovered trip last week.

Race 11

(5) PANIC DISORDER has done nothing wrong since hitting town for the Brandon Todd outfit; gelding always offers value and the price should be right again tonight. (3) LONEWOLF CURRIER looks for two in a row for the tough Allard/Dube combo. (1) KIWI IDEAL N is established at this level and the Cassar trainee draws best.

Race 12

(5) TEXICAN N didn't leave the gate last week and was too far back to threaten. From this spot he HAS to be forwardly placed. (7) SAPPHIRE CITY gets some needed class relief and this gusty veteran can never be counted out. (1) LIFE UP FRONT looks for three straight but he's facing tougher tonight. (2) CLINT WESTWOOD merits a mention based in his good efforts in two of his last three.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Wiredancer, 5-1
(9th) Sun Worshipper, 7-2


Charles Town (2nd) Rocket Rumors, 4-1
(6th) My Princess Sophia, 7-2


Churchill Downs (3rd) Golden Frontier, 4-1
(12th) Mountain Cry, 6-1


Del Mar (5th) Devil Rising, 5-1
(6th) Art of War, 4-1


Delta Downs (4th) Zarking, 4-1
(8th) Stormdriver, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Navigator's Lion, 3-1
(9th) Hidden Zensation, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (4th) Bellamy Storm, 8-1
(10th) At Large, 7-2


Hawthorne (6th) Dustem Carolina, 9-2
(7th) Atomic, 7-2


Laurel Park (3rd) Lost Raven, 3-1
(6th) Always Sunshine, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Starship Marquis, 3-1
(6th) Tilt the Balance, 6-1


Parx Racing (6th) Free Rose, 7-2
(9th) Silver Gazelle, 7-2


Penn National (1st) Isle of Doagh, 3-1
(3rd) Asian Cowgirl, 3-1


Remington Park (5th) Anoffleewildsummer, 3-1
(9th) Rebel Breeze, 6-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Right to Glory, 7-2
(8th) Swiss Idol, 10-1


Woodbine (3rd) Sophia's Song, 3-1
(10th) Spring Spirit, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- Western Illinois 69, Wisconsin 67-- Leathernecks were a 26-point underdog.

-- Wm & Mary 85, NC State 68-- W&M coach Shaver is a UNC alum.

-- Miss State 106, Eastern Washington 88-- This was a really good game for thirty minutes, then EWU got tired and the Bulldogs kept running.

-- Cal-Sacramento 66, Arizona State 63-- Bobby Hurley era in Tempe gets off to a bad start; they were a 17.5-point favorite here.

-- Monmouth 84, UCLA 81 OT-- Bruins turned ball over 23 times (-16), they led by 13 points in second half. Monmouth will travel 8,681 miles before they play at home, on December 13 against Wagner.

-- Tenn-Chattanooga 92, Georgia 90 OT-- Good win for Southern Conference.

-- Pitt-Gonzaga game was cancelled at halftime because the floor was too slick at a military base in Japan- it was a 2-point game at the half.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

203 UTAH at 204 ARIZONA 10:00 PM

Take: UTAH -5.5

On the numbers, the line would appear to be just about where it ought to be as Utah prepares to battle Arizona. But when factoring in a variety of intangibles, I see some vulnerabilities on the Wildcats side that I’ll try to exploit tonight.

First, the plusses on the Utah side. This is a big game for the Utes. They’re probably not going to get to the Final Four, but they’ve got a great shot at earning a trip to Pasadena on January 1. If Utah wins out, they’re going to be in the PAC-12 title game. Next week’s game with UCLA is the toughest assignment as Utah should be able to handle Colorado in the regular season finale. Obviously, tonight’s game with Arizona is one this team simply cannot overlook, though. A loss would put them in jeopardy of losing the division via tie breaker with USC, even if the Utes were to defeat the Bruins next week.

I just don’t see the lookahead factoring in here. Utah was blown out on its home field last season by the Wildcats. That was the third straight win in this series by Arizona, so there’s simply no way the Utes should have anything less than 100% focus for tonight’s game.

My biggest concern on the Utah side is QB Travis Wilson, who has been erratic lately. My hope is that Kyle Whittingham focuses on running the football and having Wilson simply manage the game rather than having him try to win it. That’s in spite of the fact that the Arizona pass defense is terrible. I’d still rather see Utah feature the run tonight.

Most of this play is anti-Arizona. The Wildcats have been getting mauled in the trenches lately, and they look like a tired football team to me. ‘Zona made a terrific effort last week at USC, but they wore down in the second half and the final score was actually a little misleading as the Wildcats scored at the horn to make it a 38-30 final.

Part of the Arizona fatigue that I’m perceiving is pretty easy to figure. No bye week. The Wildcats are now playing for the tenth straight week, and when a team is going in the wrong direction, the energy level becomes tougher to maintain.

The fact is, this Arizona team has been somewhat non-competitive against the better opposition they’ve faced. Their season stats are skewed thanks to a few wipeouts against the likes of Nevada, Northern Arizona and Oregon State. But when stepping up in class, they’ve been the second best team on the field by definitive margins.

Arizona can still make a bowl with one more win. But last season they were in the PAC-12 title game and ended up playing in the Fiesta Bowl. Neither of those things will be happening this season, so motivation becomes a bit of an issue and let’s also note that the rivalry duel with ASU is next week.

To be honest, I thought this line would show at -7, perhaps even -7.5. At the current tag, there’s no question Utah is going to be a “square” side tonight. So be it. I think I’ve got the better team under better conditions and I’m on the Utes to get the job done tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Saturday, Nov 14, 2015 7:35 PM

(513) BROOKLYN NETS VS (514) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Take: Over

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, November 14, 2015 comes in the NBA as the Nets are out West playing the champion Warriors. Brooklyn has tired legs on defense, 3,000 miles from home. The over is 5-2 in Nets last 7 games playing on no days rest. Golden State is a huge favorite, as they should be, and will have fun on offense running and gunning the overmatched Nets into the ground. The Over is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. And when these teams meet the over is 6-2, as well as 8-3 over the total on this court. Play the Nets/Warriors over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pure Lock

Miami (Fla) vs. North Carolina

FREE CFB play Saturday

North Carolina -12 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

Oklahoma vs Baylor

Bonus Play Baylor (#188)

Baylor has a clear path to the four team college football playoff this January. If the Bears can win their last four games, they’re in, plain and simple. Of course with Oklahoma at home, then road trips to face TCU and Oklahoma State over the next three games, Baylor’s three toughest tests of the season are coming in back-2-back-2-back weeks.

For a good portion of the season, I had Baylor ranked among the top two or three teams in all of college football in my power ratings. And I’ve got the Bears homefield edge ranked as high as any in the land, as clearly evidenced by their remarkable 19-4 ATS mark in Waco dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign. It’s surely worth noting that this is the shortest pointspread that Baylor has had at home since 2012 – they haven’t been less than -7 at home against anybody over the last three seasons.

But two things have happened to make me lower my Baylor power rating in recent weeks. First, QB Seth Russell got hurt, replaced by frosh Jarrett Stidham. Stidham was rock solid in his debut last week at Kansas State: 22-33 for 419 yards; throwing three TD passes without committing a turnover. But Stidham has certainly never seen a defense of Oklahoma’s caliber before, and a late season QB change on an elite team merits at least a modest power rating drop-off.

The other issue for Baylor moving forward is their defense. The Bears stop unit was supposed to be at a ‘compete with the elites’ level this year, highlighted by a massive defensive line loaded with future NFL prospects and a strong, veteran secondary. But the Bears have been gashed on the ground in each of the last three games, struggling to stop the likes of West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State. Oklahoma’s RB duo of Samajie Perine and Joe Mixon have combined to average well over six yards per carry, with 15 rushing TD’s between them; by far the toughest RB duo that Baylor’s stop unit has seen all year.

That being said, a pointspread that was in the Baylor -13 range in the preseason ‘Games of the Year’ lines here in Las Vegas is now sitting with the Bears favored by less than a field goal. And Baylor’s defense has done a pretty darn good job shutting down the Sooners in recent meetings, winning 48-14 last year (just 310 yards of offense for the Sooners at home in that game) and 41-12 the previous year.

And while Baylor’s strength of schedule has been widely criticized, it’s not like Oklahoma has faced a particularly tough slate thusfar either. Their toughest win came at mediocre Tennessee, a game in which the Sooners were dominated, held to a single field goal until the fourth quarter. Bob Stoops squad has just put up 50+ in each of the last four weeks, but those stellar offensive showings have come against the four weakest defenses in the Big 12, one after the next.

I certainly don’t need to remind anyone of Stoops’ repeated failures in big games since beating Florida State for the national title 15 years ago. Plus, Oklahoma’s ‘Flavor of the Week’ nature after pounding four weaklings have left them a good notch or two overvalued against a superior squad. Look for the Bears to pass their first test of this three week leviathan. Take Baylor.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Hunter

Temple vs South Florida

*3 Star CFB Free Pick* South Florida

The Temple Owls are a good team, but they have been through a tough part of the schedule lately. Coach Matt Rhule said after the Notre Dame game that his Temple team was badly beaten up injury-wise, and several of their key players didn't play very much last week against SMU. Temple's 60-40 win over SMU is a misleading final score. SMU actually had the ball late in the game with a chance to win.

Importantly, DeShone Kizer ran for 143 yards and Matt Davis ran for 102 yards in the last two weeks against this Temple defense. Running quarterbacks are a problem for them, and that's bad news for this week. Quinton Flowers is the best running quarterback they will face this year. Flowers is showing his game breaking ability on a weekly basis, and paired with Marlon Mack, South Florida has a tremendous backfield.

Sharp money was quick to jump on USF in this game. The public is about 2/3 on Temple here, and yet the line has moved down through some important numbers. USF is on the rise and Temple is in a difficult spot here. Take USF and the points at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Utah vs Arizona

Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #203 Take Utah Utes over Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 10 pm FS1)

The Utes continue to receive very little respect nationally despite being 8-1 on the season and in control of the PAC-12 South. They were an underdog last week against Washington and won by double digits and should be a much bigger favorite tonight in Tucson. The difference in this game will be defense, as Utah has a strong one and Arizona has a terrible one with injuries to key personal. The Utes last three victories have all come by double digits and they played better than the score would indicate against USC, turnovers just did them in. The Wildcats cannot complete with the top teams in the PAC-12 and will enter this game having lost three straight. Utah is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Arizona is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Georgia Southern vs Troy

Bonus Play Troy

Troy has awoken from a early season slumber to explode for 52, 41, 51 points respectively in their L/3 games for 3 straight covers. Troy now in top form will be ready to perform on senior day this Saturday, as they recognize 21 seniors.

HC Neal Brown of the Trojans had this to say about his teams recent performances to media . " . I think we are getting better. I know we’re getting better as a football team.

I couldn't agree more, with Neal's assessments.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern enters this tilt in a bad spot, as they have the Georgia Bulldogs on board for next week,and will be a in a look ahead situation.

Also from a league wide trend , home underdogs, off scoring 40 or more points in three straight games have covered the spread in 20 of their L/24 attempts.

Play on the Troy Trojans to cover 1/2unit comp selection

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sam Martin

Ohio State vs Illinois

5* Bonus Play on Illinois +16.5

Ohio State has made a habit of starting slow and scoring late to win games. With quarterback JT Barrett back after a one-game suspension, we expect just the opposite to happen this Saturday on the road at Illinois, and with a massive lookahead spot with Michigan State and rival Michigan on deck, we look for the Buckeyes to build an early lead and then pack it in and hang on to win outright but fall short of this big number.

Illinois does not pose a credible threat to the Buckeyes. They had lost three straight games by a combined 50 points prior to beating a bad Purdue team their last time out, however, they aren't the worst team in the world at stopping the run and we think they'll be able to score some points to come through the back door in the second half. Ohio State has nothing to gain by putting anything of value on tape just before their two biggest games of the season and have everything to gain by getting out of town with a win and getting ready for the "real" part of their season. OSU has failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight games overall despite their unbeaten record, and this is by far their worst motivational spot of the season to date. 5* Bonus Play on Illinois.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Clemson vs Syracuse

1* Bonus Play Syracuse +28.5

As I said in my college football betting podcast on itunes this week when we covered the ACC, Syracuse is tough at home, actually their splits are completely different form home to away, and while I think Clemson will win they will have a much harder time doing so. I think our recent games are clouding our judgement here as Syracuse put up 56 and 58 in their last 2 road games, but they also gave up 41 in one of those and they are coming off arguably one of their biggest wins in the last decade over Florida State in their last game. They hype is there and they are ranked #1 with nobody in their path the rest of the way with exception of maybe North Carolina.

Syracuse is +4 in TO margin at home, they are hardly penalized, and their defense is allowing just 35% conversions on third down, and 44% in the red zone, and their run defense is allowing just 3.31 yards per carry. If you remember they gave LSU a lot of trouble losing 34-24, but this line is super inflated based on how Syracuse has played of late.