Saturday 11/14/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 11

Sat - Nov, 14

Pittsburgh at Duke, 12:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 8-22 ATS in road games after a 2 game home stand
Duke: 6-0 ATS after being outgained by 175+ total yards in previous game

Tulsa at Cincinnati, 7:30 ET
Tulsa: 6-19 ATS after 3 games where 60 total points or more were scored
Cincinnati: 11-2 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders

Tex San Antonio at Charlotte, 2:00 ET
Tex San Antonio: 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Charlotte: 2-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points

Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan, 3:00 ET
Massachusetts: 6-0 UNDER as a favorite
E Michigan: 10-21 ATS as an underdog

Mid Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic, 12:00 ET
Mid Tenn State: 5-18 ATS on road after playing 3 straight conference games
Florida Atl: 14-5 ATS as an underdog

Michigan at Indiana, 3:30 ET
Michigan: 24-41 ATS off a home win against a conference rival
Indiana: 13-4 OVER after playing a game at home

Florida International at Marshall, 3:30 ET
Florida Int: 14-4 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game
Marshall: 17-5 OVER in home games in November

Akron at Miami Ohio, 3:30 ET
Akron: 22-9 UNDER in all lined games
Miami: 2-10 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Maryland at Michigan State, 12:00 ET
Maryland: 9-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses
Michigan St: 1-7 ATS as a favorite

Memphis at Houston, 7:00 ET
Memphis: 0-6 ATS after a game where they forced no turnovers
Houston: 11-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

Ohio State at Illinois, 12:00 ET
Ohio State: 50-31 ATS as a road favorite
Illinois: 6-16 ATS in home games after a win by 21 or more points

Tulane at Army, 12:00 ET
Tulane: 8-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses
Army: 18-33 ATS as a favorite

Clemson at Syracuse, 3:30 ET
Clemson: 25-9 ATS on road after gaining 475 or more total yards in previous game
Syracuse: 7-1 OVER in all lined games

Temple at South Florida, 12:00 ET
Temple: 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
S Florida: 4-15 ATS in home games after playing 3 straight conference games

Nebraska at Rutgers, 3:30 ET
Nebraska: 18-7 ATS after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game
Rutgers: 14-4 UNDER after a 2 game road trip

Utep at Old Dominion, 12:00 ET
Utep: 9-1 UNDER after playing 2 straight conference games
Old Dominion: 0-6 ATS as a home favorite

Kansas at TCU, 12:00 ET
Kansas: 6-21 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games
TCU: 7-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Kansas State at Texas Tech, 3:30 ET
Kansas St: 12-3 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Texas Tech: 8-1 OVER at home where the total is greater than or = to 63

Kentucky at Vanderbilt, 4:00 ET
Kentucky: 31-14 UNDER in road games in the second half of the season
Vanderbilt: 10-1 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3

Purdue at Northwestern, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 0-6 ATS after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Northwestern: 6-0 UNDER after 2 games with a turnover margin of +1 or better

North Carolina State at Florida State, 12:30 ET
N Carolina St: 6-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 straight conference games
Florida St: 6-0 OVER after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4

Utah State at Air Force, 2:00 ET
Utah St: 13-4 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points
Air Force: 18-7 OVER after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4

Georgia State at Texas State, 4:00 ET
Georgia St: 12-3 ATS in road lined games
Texas St: 9-1 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Arkansas State at UL - Monroe, 3:00 ET
Arkansas St: 11-0 OVER after playing a conference game
Monroe: 0-6 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Washington State at UCLA, 10:45 ET
Washington St: 6-0 ATS against conference opponents
UCLA: 0-6 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game

Texas at West Virginia, 12:00 ET
Texas: 46-28 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4
W Virginia: 5-15 ATS after playing a conference game

Wake Forest at Notre Dame, 3:30 ET
Wake Forest: 14-4 ATS in road games after a bye week
Notre Dame: 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28

Alabama at Mississippi State, 3:30 ET
Alabama: 28-13 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins
Mississippi St: 15-6 UNDER against conference opponents

Miami Florida at North Carolina, 3:30 ET
Miami FL: 3-12 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
N Carolina: 6-0 UNDER in home games after a win by 21 or more points

Southern Miss at Rice, 3:30 ET
S Miss: 6-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Rice: 30-16 ATS in home games off a loss against a conference rival

SMU at Navy, 3:30 ET
SMU: 7-22 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63
Navy: 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 37 points or more last game

Oklahoma State at Iowa State, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma St: 23-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Iowa State: 10-2 UNDER off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival

Arkansas at LSU, 7:15 ET
Arkansas: 38-19 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
LSU: 25-45 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road

Georgia at Auburn, 12:00 ET
Georgia: 18-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 49.5 and 56
Auburn: 0-7 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Washington at Arizona State, 3:00 ET
Washington: 17-5 UNDER in all lined games
Arizona St: 45-27 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road

Oklahoma at Baylor, 8:00 ET
Oklahoma: 20-42 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
Baylor: 13-4 ATS in home lined games

BYU at Missouri, 7:30 ET
BYU: 0-7 ATS in road games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Missouri: 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more straight overs

Georgia Southern at Troy, 3:30 ET
Georgia S: 2-4 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63
Troy: 6-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

San Jose State at Nevada, 4:00 ET
San Jose St: 26-12 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game
Nevada: 15-4 UNDER in games played on turf

Oregon Sate at California, 10:30 ET
Oregon St: 23-9 ATS on road after a game with a t/o margin of -2 or worse
California: 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 37 points or more last game

Appalachian State at Idaho, 5:00 ET
Appalachain St: 5-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Idaho: 6-20 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

UNLV at Colorado State, 7:00 ET
UNLV: 11-24 ATS in road games after having lost 2 out of their last 3
Colorado St: 42-24 ATS after a win by 17 or more points

Virginia at Louisville, 12:30 ET
Virginia: 11-3 UNDER as an underdog
Louisville: 2-12 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49

Utah at Arizona, 10:00 ET
Utah: 6-0 ATS in road games in games played on turf
Arizona: 17-34 ATS in home games off 1 or more consecutive unders

North Texas at Tennessee, 12:00 ET
N Texas: 1-10 ATS as a road underdog
Tennessee: 11-2 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less points

Florida at South Carolina, 12:00 ET
Florida: 67-44 ATS in road games against conference opponents
S Carolina: 5-8 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

Oregon at Stanford, 7:30 ET
Oregon: 8-1 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Stanford: 13-5 UNDER as a favorite

New Mexico at Boise State, 10:15 ET
New Mexico: 13-4 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5
Boise St: 61-35 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Minnesota at Iowa, 8:00 ET
Minnesota: 11-3 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
Iowa: 10-2 OVER after playing a conference game

Wyoming at San Diego State, 10:30 ET
Wyoming: 1-9 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
San Diego St: 10-2 UNDER after playing a conference game

Fresno State at Hawaii, 11:00 ET
Fresno St: 1-7 ATS as an underdog
Hawaii: 20-6 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in previous game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Week 11

Saturday's games
Top 13 games
Road team won pair of wild Duke-Pitt games last two years; Duke won 51-48 (+3) LY, lost 58-55 (-4) at home in '13. Both teams lost their last two games after 6-1 starts; Blue Devils are 0-3 as home faves this year- they allowed 46.3 ppg in last three games. Pitt won last three road games by total of 10 points; they're 3-0 as road underdogs this year. Last three Duke games went over total. ACC home favorites are 10-14 vs spread.

Houston is 9-0 but allowed 523 PY in 33-30 win over Cincinnati a week ago; Cougars won last five games with Memphis, covering three of last four- they won 25-15/55-14 in last two played here. Tigers gave up 374 rushing yards to Navy LW, losing 45-20, their first loss. Memphis is 4-0 on road, scoring 47.3 ppg. Houston ran ball for 214+ yards in eight of last nine games- Vandy held them to 150. Five of last seven Houston games stayed under the total.

Underdogs are 11-2-1 vs spread in last 14 NC State-Florida State games; Wolfpack lost last four visits here, losing 49-17/34-0 in last two; they're 2-6 SU in last eight series games (6-1-1 vs spread). FSU lost at Clemson LW, second loss in three games; they're 3-2 as HFs this year. NC State is 0-2 as an underdog this year, losing both by 15 points. Six of last eight FSU games stayed under total. ACC home favorites are 10-14 vs spread. Golson is back at QB for FSU after Maguire started last two games.

Washington State is 4-0 as road underdogs this year, going 6-2 SU in last eight games, after opening with loss to I-AA teams. Coogs lost last five games with UCLA, giving up 37 ppg but they covered last three, losing 28-25/42-28/28-3 in last three visits here. Bruins won last three games, coring 38.7 ppg; they blanked Oregon State LW, after giving up average of 37.8 ppg in previous five games- they're 1-4 as home favorite in '15.

Alabama won 20-7/24-7 in last two visits to Starkville; they beat Miss State 25-20 (-9) LY, when Bulldogs were #1 in country. MSU covered three of last four series games. Crimson Tide is off LSU win; they're 2-0 on road this season, winning at Georgia/A&M 38-10/41-23. State won last four games, scoring 41.8 ppg; they're 2-1 as an underdog. SEC home underdogs are 6-8 this year. Alabama held LSU to 54 yards rushing LW, but senior QB Prescott presents a more diverse threat.

North Carolina won its last eight games since losing 17-13 in opener to South Carolina; UNC covered four of last five games, is 3-1 as HF this year. Tar Heels lost four of last five games with Miami, losing last two here, 27-23/30-24. Hurricanes won three of last four games, are 2-1 as an underdog; four of their last six games stayed under. ACC home favorites are 10-14 vs spread. UNC hung 66 points on Duke LW; they've gained 1,148 yards in last two games combined.

LSU followed up LY's loss to Alabama with 17-0 loss to Arkansas; their first loss in last four games with Razorbacks, who lost 37-27/41-17 last two visits here. Tigers got spanked LW, are 2-2-1 as HFs this year- they allowed 19+ points in every game this year. Arkansas covered last four I-A games, winning last two in OT; they gave up 748 PY last two games and one of those was against I-AA team. SEC homr favorites are 12-14 against the spread this season.

Since 2010, Georgia is 0-6-1 vs spread as an underdog; they're dog here for first time this year. Georgia won three of last four games vs Auburn, but lost 43-38 in last visit here; Dawgs are 2-3 in last five games, 1-5 vs spread in last six- Auburn ran ball for 311 yards in win at Texas A&M after losing previous two games; they're 1-2 at home vs I-A foes. Five of last six Georgia games stayed under total- they were held under 300 yds in three of last five games.

Arizona State won last eight games with Washington, winning 53-24 last time teams met here; ASU lost its last three games overall, allowing 43.3 ppg; three of their last four games went over total. Sun Devils gave up 812 PY in last two games- they lost two of last three at home, are 1-2 as a favorite. Huskies lost three of last four games; they're 2-1 as road dogs this season. Five of last six Washington games stayed under total. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-12 against the spread.

Baylor beat Oklahoma 48-14/41-12 last two years, after going 1-16 vs Sooners before that; Bears scored 59 ppg in winning three home games vs I-A foes, but they play Okla St/TCU after this- schedule is loaded at the end. Oklahoma scored 58 ppg in winning last four games against low half of league- six of last seven Sooner games went over- they're 8-4 as an underdog, over last 10+ years. Big X home favorites are 11-4 vs spread. Baylor freshman QB Stitham threw for 419 yards in his first start LW.

Arizona won last three games with Utah by 32-11-10 points; they beat Utes 42-10 at home LY- Wildcats ran for 298 yards. Wildcats allowed an average of 40.8 ppg last four games, losing last three, by 3-46-8 points; they're 1-3 as underdogs this season. 8-1 Utah's only loss was at USC; they're 3-3 as a favorite TY, all four of its road tilts were decided by 11+ points. Pac-12 home underdogs are 2-7 vs spread. Arizona gave up 430 YR last two games, 467+ TY in each of last four games.

8-1 Florida allowed 10 or less points in each of last four wins; they lost 23-20/19-14 to South Carolina last two years, losing last two visits to Columbia by 5 points each. Gators are 2-1 in true road games; favorites are 2-0-1 vs spread in those games. Gamecocks covered last three games, winning two of three at home TY; they're 2-3 as underdogs. Carolina is 0-6 this season when allowing more than 14 points. SEC home dogs are 6-8 vs spread.

Oregon won last three games, scoring 43.7 ppg after a 3-3 start; they are 3-2 in last five games with Stanford, losing 26-20 in last visit here, in '13. Ducks are 3-0 as an underdog this year, winning in OT at Arizona in last road tilt. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-12 vs spread. Last three Stanford games stayed under total. Cardinal won eight games in row since opening loss at Northwestern; Stanford is 4-0 as home favorite this year with all four wins by 17+ points.

Rest of card.........
-- Tulsa is 3-0 as road underdog this year; they scored 42-40-45 points in last three games. Cincinnati won last three home games by 11-24-45 poinrs. Last five Bearcat games stayed under total.

-- Charlotte lost its last seven games (1-4-2 vs spread), losing last four at home by average score of 33-8. UTSA lost last four games, allowing 33 ppg; they're 1-4 on road, 1-1 as a road favorite this year.

-- UMass (-14) beat Eastern Michigan 36-14 LY, outgaining UMass by 242 yards; Minutemen lost last five games; they were favored in two of them. Eagles lost their last eight games (1-7 against the spread).

-- Middle Tennessee won last seven games with Florida Atlantic (5-1 vs spread); they won 42-35/38-14/27-20 in last three visits here. MTSU is 0-4 on road this year, allowing 41.7 ppg.

-- Indiana lost its last five games, allowing 41 ppg after a 4-0 start; they lost 12 games in row to Michigan (2-5 vs spread last seven). Michigan is 7-1 in its last eight games, with six wins by 21+ points.

-- Marshall won its three games with FIU: 20-10/48-10/45-13, covering twice; Herd is 3-1 as home favorite this year- five of their last six games stayed under the total. Four of last five FIU games went over.

-- Favorites are 7-2-2 vs spread in last 11 Akron-Miami games; Akron won last two, 29-19/24-17. Six of last eight Akron games stayed under. Miami lost eight of last nine games, but covered last three.

-- Michigan State lost 39-38 at Nebraska LW, its first loss of year; they have Ohio State/Penn State after this. Spartans ran for 242 yards LY in 37-15 win at Maryland. Terps are 2-7 but covered last four games.

-- Ohio State won last three games with Illini: 55-14/60-35/52-22. Seven of last eight Buckeye games, five of last seven Illini games stayed under. Illinois is 2-3 as an underdog this season, 0-1 at home.

-- Army won last two games with Tulane, 45-6/41-23; Cadets are 1-6 vs I-A teams this year. Tulane lost its last five games, scoring 9.7 ppg, not good. AAC non-conference road dogs are 7-6 vs spread.

-- Clemson beat Syracuse 16-6 LY after trailing 6-3 at half; Tigers are off emotional Florida State win, have to keep pedal on metal to keep rating at #1. Syracuse lost lost six games, allowing 38.7 ppg (3-3 vs spread).

-- 8-1 Temple covered five of last six games; they're 3-1 as road faves; Owls (+3.5) beat USF 37-28 in only series game, in 2012. Bulls are 4-1 in last five games overll, covering five of their last six.

-- Nebraska is 1-3 on road, 4-6 overall; they upset Michigan State LW, scored 45-39 points last two games. Rutgers lost last three games by a combined 146-33. Big 14 home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

-- Old Dominion lost five of last seven games, with wins by total of eight points; Monarchs lost three of last four home games. UTEP is 1-4 on the road, allowing 50 ppg. Last four ODU games went over total.

-- TCU lost star WR Doctson for season in first loss at Oklahoma State LW; Frogs are 2-1 as home favorites this year. Kansas allowed 59.7 ppg in last three games- they covered once in their last six games.

-- Texas Tech lost last three games, allowing 54.7 ppg; they lost last four games with Kansas State, losing 49-26/41-34 in last two played here. Big X home favorites are 11-4 vs spread. K-State lost its last five games.

-- Vanderbilt lost three of last four games, scoring 6.8 ppg; Vandy won three of last four games with Kentucky, winning 22-6/38-8 in last two at Nashville. Kentucky lost its last four games, allowing 37.8 ppg.

-- 7-2 Northwestern's last two wins were by two points each; Wildcats were underdog in five of eight I-A games (2-1F)- they won 38-14 LY at Purdue, which lost six of last seven games, allowing 93 points in last two

-- Utah State beat Air Force 34-16/52-20 last two years; Aggies are 0-4 vs I-A teams this year when they score less than 33 points. Falcons won last three games by a combined total of 120-24.

-- Texas State beat Georgia State 54-31/24-17 last two years; TSU is 1-6 vs I-A teams, 1-5 vs spread last six games- four of last five Bobcat games stayed under. Georgia State is 4-0 as road dog this season.

-- UL-Monroe is 0-8 vs I-A teams, covering once in last six games; they lost last five games with Arkansas State, four by 14+. ASU won last five games, scoring 44.6 ppg; all five of those games went over.

-- Texas is 0-3 on road this year, outscored by combined total of 112-10; Longhorns beat West Virginia last two seasons, 33-16/47-40. WVa lost four of last five games, allowing 237 rushing ypg in last three.

-- Notre Dame won 38-0/24-17 in last two games with Wake Forest; 8-1 ND covered six of last seven games- they're 4-0 as HFs this year. Wake covered four of its last five games; they're 1-2 as road dog this year.

-- Rice beat Southern Miss 41-23/44-17 last two meetings; Owls are 2-4 in last six games overall, are 1-3-1 as a dog this year. USM won three in row, all by 21+ points, allowing average of only 11 ppg.

-- Navy won its last three games by 17-12-25 points; handing Memphis its first loss LW; Middies ran ball for 802 yards last two games- they're 3-1 as home faves this year. SMU covered once in its last six games.

-- 9-0 Oklahoma State had big win over TCU LW; they've scored 59 ppg in last three games. Cowboys won last three games with Iowa State by 17-31-21 points. Cyclones allowed 45+ points in four of last five games.

-- Missouri had ton of distractions this week; they're using backup QB, scored total of 25 points in last four games. BYU split four road games, with three of four decided by five or less points.

-- Georgia Southern had 421 YR in 42-10 (-25) win over Troy LY; they held Trojans to 154 TY. Eagles won six of last seven games, are 2-0 as a HF-- all six of their wins this season are by 20+ points.

-- Nevada won last four games with San Jose State, winning 38-16/35-13 in last two played here; Wolf Pack won three of last four since losing to rival UNLV. Favorites covered three of four San Jose road games.

-- Call Bears lost last four games after 5-0 start, giving up 35.5 ppg; they lost six of last eight games with Oregon State, but won 46-31 in Corvallis LY. Beavers lost last six games, covering only once.

-- Appalachian State (-18) beat Idaho 45-28 LY; ASU is 7-2 but allowed 81 points in last two games- they're 3-0 as road favorites. Idaho scored 93 points in its last two games but still lost both, both by seven points.

-- Colorado State won last three games with UNLV by 22-3-33 points, but teams didn't meet last two years; Rams lost three of four home tilts vs I-A teams. Rebels are 3-0 as a road underdog this season.

-- Louisville won five of last six games after 0-3 start, allowing 19 or less points in all five wins; Cards (-5.5) lost 23-21 at Virginia LY, they're 1-2 as HFs this year. Virginia covered three of four as road dog this year.

-- Tennessee is 5-4, gets bowl-eligible here; they close with Mizzou and Vandy, can name score here vs 1-8 North Texas squad that fired coach last month and lost 56-13 last week at Louisiana Tech.

-- Boise State won last four games with New Mexico, winning 45-17 and 45-5 in last two played here. Broncos covered five of last seven, are 1-2 as HF this season. Lobos won four of last six; they're 2-2 as a dog.

-- Home side won four of last five Minnesota-Iowa games; Gophers won 51-14 at home LY, lost last visit here 31-13. 9-0 Iowa is 1-3 as home favorite this year. Five of last seven Hawkeye games went over total.

-- San Diego State won/covered all five MW games; 14 points was least they've won by. Road team won last four Aztec-Wyoming games, with Cowboys winning 30-27/30-27 here. Dogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in series.

-- Fresno State lost seven of last eight games, losing all four road games by 14+ points. Hawai'i lost last seven games, allowed 99 points in last two games. Mountain West home favorites are 10-6 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 14

Game of the Day: Alabama at Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have averaged 40.75 points during their four-game winning streak and are coming off a 31-13 victory at Missouri in a driving rain

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+8, 51.5)

One of the biggest remaining hurdles between Alabama and the College Football Playoff awaits Saturday, when the Crimson Tide travels to face Mississippi State in the 100th all-time meeting between the SEC West rivals. The Crimson Tide jumped to No. 2 in the playoff rankings after last week’s impressive 30-16 win over LSU, and they face another stiff test against the 20th-ranked Bulldogs.

Alabama has reeled off six straight wins since a 43-37 setback against Ole Miss, including triumphs over three teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time. Last week’s victory put the Crimson Tide in control in the SEC West – and gave them an inside track to the national semifinals – but they’ll have to knock off another red-hot team to stay there. The Bulldogs have averaged 40.75 points during their four-game winning streak and are coming off a 31-13 victory at Missouri in a driving rain. ”Any time you have an emotional win, you have to get your team ready to respond the right way and make sure they're focused on what they need to do just as well the next week – or better,” Alabama coach Nick Saban told reporters. “This is an outstanding team all the way around, and this is not the time for anyone to think that just because we had what some would call a ‘big win’ that there is any reason to think that the next game is not the most important game that we need to play.”

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Alabama anywhere from -7 to -8 and the line is currently -8. The total is up to 51.5 from the opening 50.

INJURY REPORT:

Alabama - RB Kenyan Drake (Questionable, head), WR Chris Black (Out for season, ankle), K Gunnar Raborn (Out indefinitely, suspension), WR Robert Foster (Out for season, shoulder).

Mississippi State - DB Will Redmond (Out for season, knee), LB Dezmond Harris (Out for season, knee), DB Kendrick Market (Out for season, knee).

WEATHER: Temperatures expected to be in the low-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the south end zone at around 6 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Alabama remains the team to beat in the SEC after defeating LSU by a score of 30-16. Derrick Henry ran for 210 yards and three TDs while Leornard Fournette was limited to just 31 yards on 19 carries. The Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott threw for 303 yards and four TDs in the win over Missouri, becoming the 6th player in SEC history to account for 100 or more TDs."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this game Alabama -8 and have not had to move off our opening number as we are seeing solid two-way action at this number with 65 percent of the action favoring Alabama."

ABOUT ALABAMA (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Crimson Tide shut down LSU star Leonard Fournette last week, holding him to a season-low 31 yards, and they hope to slow another potential Heisman Trophy candidate this week in Dak Prescott. Alabama has forced 13 turnovers during its winning streak – including 11 interceptions – and leads the SEC with 13 picks this season, four of which were returned for touchdowns. Derrick Henry also continued his impressive play against LSU, running for 210 yards and three touchdowns to give him 589 rushing yards and seven TDs in his last three games.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Prescott continued to put up big numbers despite unfavorable conditions last week, racking up 351 total yards with four touchdown passes against a Missouri team that entered the game ranked first in the SEC in scoring defense. Prescott has topped 300 yards passing in three straight games, and both of his favorite targets went over 100 yards receiving last week - with Fred Ross making 11 catches for 115 yards and De’Runnya Wilson adding four receptions for 102 yards. The Bulldogs could have their hands full slowing down Henry, as they rank 10th in the SEC against the run after allowing 215 rushing yards versus Missouri.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in Mississippi State.
* Under is 13-2-1 in the last 16 meetings.
* Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Bulldogs last nine conference games.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-five percent are backing Alabama.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FSU names Golson starting QB for Saturday

Everett Golson will be Florida State's starting quarterback against North Carolina State on Saturday after Sean Maguire started the previous two games for the Seminoles.

Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher named Golson the starter on Thursday.

Golson sustained a concussion in the Seminoles' Oct. 24 loss to Georgia Tech, and he missed the next game against Syracuse even though he had passed the concussion protocol.

Maguire had a good day as Golson's replacement against the Orange, passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in the 45-21 victory.

Maguire remained the starting quarterback last week against No. 1 Clemson, but Florida State lost that game 23-13 as Maguire passed for 164 yards and no touchdowns with one interception.

So Fisher is going back to Golson, who was named the starter in preseason and has a 6-1 record this season.

Golson was Notre Dame's starting quarterback before transferring to Florida State as a graduate transfer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stanford dominant at home under head coach Shaw

The Stanford Cardinal have gone 28-3 at home under head coach David Shaw since he took over the job in 2011.

The Cardinal have been a profitable option for bettors in those spots as well, carrying an impressive 20-11 record against the spread in Shaw's home games into Saturday's meeting with the Oregon Ducks at Stanford Stadium Saturday.

Stanford has hosted Oregon twice since Shaw has been at the helm (2013, 2011). Oregon won and covered in 2011 but it was Stanford with wins in both columns in the most recent meeting.

Books opened the Cardinal as 9-point home favorites but that has since moved to -10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wolfpack aim to match school record fifth road win

The North Carolina State Wolfpack will visit the Florida State Seminoles with a chance to match the school record with their fifth road victory of the season Saturday afternoon.

The Wolfpack have been an excellent wager against the spread in those road games as well, bringing a 4-1 ATS mark into Tallahassee.

Their only slipup on the road was in Week 6 when they lost 28-13 as 2.5-point road dogs at the Virginia Tech Hokies.

It won't be easy for N.C. State, however, as Florida State has won 19 consecutive games on home turf.

Books opened Florida State as a 9.5-point home favorite, but that has moved to -8 as of Friday evening.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Florida State dominant SU at home, not so much ATS

The Florida State Seminoles have won an impressive 19 consecutive games on home soil at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee and host the North Carolina State Wolfpack as 8-point faves Saturday afternoon.

The impressive streak hasn't yielded a good return for Noles backers however. Florida State has put together a pedestrian record of 10-9 against the spread during their home win streak.

To make matters worse for hopeful FSU bettors, North Carolina State has gone 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Tallahassee, most recently covering as 34-point dogs in a 49-17 loss at FSU in 2013.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 11 betting notes for college football's top games

Iowa heads into Saturday's action tied with Maryland and Northwestern with the best record against the spread in the Big Ten at 6-3.

(10) Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (+7.5, 46.5)

* While the Gators sputtered on offense in a 9-7 win versus Vanderbilt last week, they are sixth in the nation in total defense and have allowed 13 points of fewer in six of nine games.

* The Gamecocks took last year’s meeting 23-20 and have split the last 10 with the Gators, who had won 13 straight before that stretch. The Gamecocks have gone 6-4 ATS in those 10 games.


Kansas Jayhawks at (12) TCU Horned Frogs (-45, 71.5)

* The Jayhawks are trying to avoid a winless season under first-year coach David Beaty and follow the TCU game with contests against West Virginia and Kansas State.

* TCU possesses a 19-8-4 series lead and has won all three meetings since joining the Big 12. They have gone 0-3 ATS in those three meetings, however.


(1) Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (+16.5, 55)

* J.T. Barrett will return under center for Ohio State after he was suspended for last week's game against Minnesota after being arrested for driving under the influence and has been reinstated and anointed the starter by coach Urban Meyer.

* Illinois quarterback Wes Lunt has been intercepted just four times while passing for 2,000 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he has a talented target in senior receiver Geronimo Allison (56 receptions for 756 yards).


Maryland Terrapins at (14) Michigan State Spartans (-15, 56)

* As the Terrapins play out a difficult season with an eye toward 2016, they see the visit to Michigan State as a potential building block. "They're kind of wounded coming off the loss from last week," wide receiver Levern Jacobs told reporters. "I just think we have a great opportunity to go in there and upset that team this weekend and build on what we can do next year."

* Despite coming off a gut-punching and controversial loss, Michigan State can still control its own destiny in the Big Ten. The Spartans start down a potential road to redemption Saturday when they host a reeling Maryland squad that could be a target for some of the frustration in East Lansing.


Purdue Boilermakers at (24) Northwestern Wildcats (16, 49)

* Purdue's Markell Jones continued his impressive season with 84 yards rushing against Illinois; his 634 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns rank him ninth and tied for fifth, respectively, nationally among freshmen running backs.

* Northwestern gave up a total of 35 points through five games before getting outscored 78-10 in back-to-back losses to Big Ten powers Michigan and Iowa, but have steadied the ship recently with a pair of two-point wins at Nebraska (30-28) on Oct. 24 and versus Penn State last weekend (23-21).


North Carolina State Wolfpack at (18) Florida State Seminoles (-10, 54)

* The Wolfpack can match a school record with their fifth road win of the season on Saturday. They are 4-1 SU and ATS five road games so far this season.

* The Seminoles have won 19 straight home games but are just 10-9 ATS in those games.


(2) Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange (+28, 57.5)

* Deshaun Watson led three second-half scoring drives against the Seminoles and finished with 297 passing yards and a touchdown, no interceptions, and 107 yards on the ground. "Everything starts with Deshaun Watson," said Orange coach Scott Shafer. "He's a great football player. ... You can see he has been eager to be one of the best quarterbacks in the country."

* Since joining the ACC, Syracuse has scored a total of 20 points in two games versus Clemson. The Under has cashed in both games.


Miami Hurricanes at (17) North Carolina Tar Heels (-13, 65.5)

* Miami QB Brad Kaaya returned after a one-week absence due to a concussion to complete 20-of-26 passes for 286 yards last week in Miami’s 27-21 victory over Virginia.

* With a victory Saturday, the Tar Heels can become the eighth team to finish undefeated at Kenan Stadium in a single season since it opened in 1927 and the first since 1996. They've gone 4-2 ATS in their six home games heading into Saturday's game.


Wake Forest Demon Deacons at (6) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-27, 52)

* The Demon Deacons are enduring a rough season but still have a chance to impact the College Football Playoff with the next two games against No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 1 Clemson. “This will be a great challenge for our football team,” Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson told reporters. “This is why people come to Wake Forest. You get to play in games like this, in a venue like this, and our players are excited about it.”

* Notre Dame took the first two meetings in 2011 and 2012. The teams split each ATS but the Under has cashed in both contests.


(4) Alabama Crimson Tide at (2) Mississippi State Bulldogs (+8, 51.5)

* Alabama has won seven straight in the series and allowed 10 or fewer points in six of the last seven meetings. The Tide have gone just 4-3 ATS in the last seven, but the Under has gone 6-0-1.

* Mississippi State leads the SEC and ranks third nationally in the red zone, producing touchdowns on 75 percent of its drives inside the 20.


(5) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+14, 61)

* Oklahoma State is trying for its 12th straight victory, which would be the second-longest streak behind the school-record 13 in a row set from 1944-46. The Cowboys have gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11.

* The Cyclones will likely try to keep the vaunted Cowboys' offense off the field and have the means to do so with Lawton, Okla., native Mike Warren, the top freshman rusher in the nation with 997 yards.


(15) Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+13, 56)

* The Wolverines have beaten Indiana 19 consecutive times, including the last eight games in Bloomington, and have scored at least 34 points in the past seven meetings overall.

* "When we play we can play with anybody and we're going for seven wins now," Indiana running back Jordan Howard told reporters. "We just have to make the plays when they come to us and step up and not be afraid of the moment."


SMU Mustangs at (23) Navy Midshipmen (-21.5, 61)

* The Mustangs rank 122nd in the FBS in average rushing yards allowed, surrendering 259.6 to go along with 32 touchdowns allowed on the ground.

* The Midshipmen rank third nationally with an average of 326.5 rushing yards and use a triple-option offense that has seen seven different players score on the ground this season. Quarterback Keenan Reynolds was held out of the end zone on the ground last week and remains tied with former Wisconsin star Montee Ball for the NCAA career rushing touchdowns lead at 77.


(25) Memphis Tigers at (16) Houston Cougars (-7, 71)

* Memphis is 4-0 on the road this season and has won eight straight, the nation's second-longest road winning streak behind Ohio State's 16. The Tigers are 2-1-1 ATS on the road this season and 5-2-1 ATS in during their road streak.

* Houston has won 10 straight games, the fourth longest active streak behind Ohio State (22), Clemson (12) and Oklahoma State (11). They are 7-3 ATS during their streak.


(21) Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls (+2.5, 44.5)

* The Owls can clinch the East Division and a berth in the first American Athletic Conference championship game with a win Saturday. They would love to match their effort against SMU last week, when they rolled to a 60-40 victory behind five total touchdowns from quarterback P.J. Walker.

* Quinton Flowers has accounted for 19 touchdowns this season - 12 passing scores - while ranking second on the team in rushing yards. Backfield mate Marlon Mack has surpassed 100 rushing yards in four of his last five outings - a key for the Bulls, who are 4-0 this year when he runs for at least 110 yards.


Arkansas Razorbacks at (9) LSU Tigers (-7.5, 54)

* The Razorbacks held LSU to 36 yards rushing in last season’s 17-0 home victory, limiting Fournette to career lows in yardage (nine) and carries (five).

* The Tigers are 27-2 following a loss in Miles’ 11 years as head coach and have only lost back-to-back games twice; Arkansas was the second straight loss both times (2008, 2014).


Oregon Ducks at (7) Stanford Cardinal (-10, 69.5)

* The Ducks’ offense began clicking three games ago, when Adams returned from a broken finger and wide receiver Darren Carrington made his season debut after sitting out the first six games due to suspension.

* Stanford is 28-3 at home under coach David Shaw. The Cardinal have gone 20-11 ATS in those games.


(11) Oklahoma Sooners at (3) Baylor Bears (-2.5, 76)

* The Sooners have gone over 600 yards of total offense in each of the last three games and have covered the spread in four straight.

* Baylor’s 20-game home winning streak is the longest current run in FBS. The Bears have gone 16-3 ATS during their home winning streak (This season's contest versus Lamar had no line).


Minnesota Golden Gophers at (8) Iowa Hawkeyes (-11, 45.5)

* Tracy Claeys went 4-3 as interim coach in 2013 when Jerry Kill was on leave after suffering a seizure during a game. The Gophers went 6-1 ATS in those seven games.

* The Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten in takeaways (20), interceptions (13) and turnover margin (plus-11).


(13) Utah Utes at Arizona Wildcats (+6, 62)

* The Utes have a one-game lead over both UCLA and USC in the division race and winning their final three games would assure them of a spot in the Pac-12 title game.

* The Wildcats have lost three consecutive games but routed Utah last season and have covered the spread in three straight meetings with the Utes.


Washington State Cougars at (23) UCLA Bruins (-10.5, 65.5)

* The Cougars' pass-heavy offense continues to lead the Pac-12 with 417.3 passing yards per game, the second-highest average in the FBS. Luke Falk, just a sophomore, already has as many touchdown passes (46) as Drew Bledsoe had in his Washington State career and is halfway to the school's career mark of 90, set by Connor Halliday last season.

* The biggest sign the Bruins are gaining momentum is their near-flawless 41-0 win at Oregon State last weekend, when they churned out 676 yards of total offense and posted their first shutout on the road since 1987.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 11

Pittsburgh at Duke

The Panthers and Blue Devils hook up, each in need of a win. The past two seasons these teams have met have been video-game-like, with Duke winning in double-overtime against Pitt 51-48 last season, and the Panthers winning 58-55 at Duke in 2013. The Panthers have been successful on the road, going 5-1 ATS in their past six. However, they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Duke had their bell rung at UNC last weekend, 66-31, and that followed up a debilitating loss to Miami-Fla. when it appeared they were jobbed by the referees on the final kickoff for score. The Blue Devils are 21-9-1 ATS in their past 31 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record.

North Carolina State at Florida State

N.C. State heads down to Tallahassee looking to kick Florida State while they're down. It's rare to see the Seminoles with two losses, but that's exactly where they are in early November. And with a solid Wolfpack team coming to town, a team which has been a thorn in their side over the years, FSU has to at least have a few nerves come Saturday. N.C. State is 8-1 ATS in their past nine road games, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six against a team wtih a winning record. They're also 5-0 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home mark. The Seminoles are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record. N.C. State is 6-1 ATS in their past seven trips to Tallahassee, and they're 14-3-1 ATS in the past 18 meetings overall. N.C. State is a 10-point underdog, and the 'dog is 14-3-1 ATS in the past 18 meetings overall.

Virginia at Louisville

After a slow start, Louisville continues to fire on all cylinders with three straight wins, and five wins in the past six outings. They also covered a 17-point number last weekend, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. Virginia has won just once in the past three games, but they enter 3-0 ATS in their past three games with three 'under' results. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 3-0-1 ATS in their past four on the road while going 11-5-1 ATS in their past 17 against teams wtih a winning record. Louisville has covered 20 of their past 29 conference tilts, but they're still just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at home and 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing record. The under has been the dominant trend for both sides, going 3-0-1 in their past four on the road and 11-2-1 in their past 14 ACC games. The under is 11-0 in Louisville's past 11 games following a straight-up win by more than 20 points. The under is 7-2 in their past nine against a team with a losing record, and 10-4-1 in their past 15 ACC battles.

Miami-Florida at North Carolina

After their crazy kickoff return win at Duke, Miami returned hom and held off Virginia 27-21 for back-to-back wins for the first time since winning the first three from Sept. 5-19. UNC lost their opener in Charlotte against South Carolina, but they have rattled off eight consecutive victories while covering six of those games. Despite Miami's win at Duke, they're still just 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning home record. UNC is 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning overall record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC battles. They're also an impressive 21-6 ATS in their past 27 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Hurricanes have covered four of the past five in this series, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Kenan. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.

Wake Forest at Notre Dame

Notre Dames hosts a poor Wake Forest team which enters as a 27-point underdog. The Demon Deacons are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record, while going 1-6 ATS in their past seven games overall. They're also just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a winning home record. As cold as Wake has been against the number, the Irish are red hot. They're 5-0 ATS in their past five home games in the shadows of Touchdown Jesus, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. However, they are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a losing record and 1-4 ATS in their past five at home against a team with a losing road mark. The over is 5-2-1 in Wake's past eight against a team with a winning record, but the under is 7-3-1 in their past 11 non-conference tilts. The over is 6-2 in Notre Dame's past eight home games, and 11-4 in their past 15 overall.

Clemson at Syracuse

Clemson puts their No. 1 College Football Playoff ranking on the line in a road trip to upstate New York to battle the Orange. The Tigers are a four-touchdown favorite, but they're just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 conference tilts. Clemson is also just 5-12-2 ATS in their past 19 road games against a team with a losing home record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a losing overall record. Syracuse has covered four of their past five home games, but they're 2-7 ATS in their past nine following a straight-up loss. For Clemson, the over is 4-1 in their past five ACC games, and 4-1 in their past five overall. The over has been the thing for Syracuse all season, going 8-1, including 4-1 in their past five home games and 4-1 in their past five ACC games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 11

Washington at Arizona State

The Huskies and Sun Devils had big plans heading into the season. Now, they're simply fighting for bowl eligibility. Washington heads into this game 12-4 ATS in their past 16 against a team with a losing record, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road. AZ State is just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five at home. However, they have managed to go 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a losing record. Sparky has dominated this series over the years, as the Huskies are just 2-12-2 ATS in the past 16 meetings and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Tempe.

Oregon at Stanford

The reports of Oregon's demise have been greatly exaggerated, as the Ducks have won and covered three in a row dating back to an Oct. 10 loss against Washington State. Stanford has rattled off eight straight victories since their opening week setback at Northwestern. More impressive is the fact the Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in during their winning streak. The Ducks enter 12-2 ATS in their past 14 conference tilts, and 25-9 ATS in the past 34 games against a team with a winning record. They're also 21-7 ATS in their past 28 road games against a team wit ha winning home mark. Stanford has been equally impressive against the number, going 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, but they're just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 against Oregon. The over has hit in four of the past five meetings in Palo Alto, and eight of the past 10 meetings in this series overall.

Utah at Arizona

Utah was a slight road 'dog last week at Washington despite entering as the much better team. They won handily, and are now 9-2 ATS in their past 11 road outings. Arizona hasn't had such luck against the number lately, going 3-9 ATS in their past 12 home games and 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home against a team with a winning road record. The good news for the Utes is that the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, but the bad news is that they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five meetings with the Wildcats. Total players will be interested in knowing the over is 4-0 in Utah's past four road games, and 5-2 in their past seven overall. The over is 6-1 in Arizona's past seven at home, and 6-1 in their past seven against a team with a winning overall record while going 8-3 in their past 11 overall. The under is the trend in this series, however, going 6-2 in the past eight meetings.

Oregon State at California

It's been a lost season for Oregon State, but it's been a winning season for bettors picking against them. Oregon State is 5-16 ATS in the past 21 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road and 1-6 ATS in their past seven against teams with an overall winning record while going 1-7 ATS in their past eight conference tilts. Cal has cooled off after a hot start to the season, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. They're also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 against a team with a losing record, and 7-19 ATS in their past 26 in Berkeley. Oregon State is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 5-1 ATS in their past six trips to California. The under might be the way to go, cashing in four of the past five road games for the Beavs, and 6-2 in their past eight against a team with a winning overall record. The under has cashed in six straight for Cal, and the under is 8-3 in their past 11 aginst teams with a losing overall record.

Washington State at UCLA

The Cougars have been red hot lately, but they get another big test Saturday night at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Washington State heads in 6-0 ATS in their past six conference games and 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall record. WaZu has also cashed in four straight road games, and six straight overall. UCLA is just 1-3-1 ATS in their past five home games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four following a cover in their previous outing. However, UCLA is 4-1 ATS in their past five at home against a team with a winning home record. The Cougars have dominated this series, against the number at least, going 10-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings, and 5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Pasadena. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 11

Here's what we got for Week 11.

1) Correct sharp movement: UMass/Eastern Michigan OVER

UMass has seen declining offensive numbers of late but that's helped hold this number down and even after some movement we have a total (69.5) still worth betting OVER. Three of the Minutemen's last four games have seen combined total finals of 30 or less points and their offensive numbers have been erratic, that should change here vs this Eastern Michigan defense. Surprisingly, when looking at the UMass schedule, they've played a decent slate of opposing defenses, having already played the MAC's best four stop units. UMass can still be potent on offense and QB Blake Frohnapfel should be backed by a strong running game in this matchup which should ease the pressure on him and produce better numbers.

The Eastern Michigan defense allows 520 yards of offense and 44 points per game and rank as the worst rushing defense in all of college football, so my belief that UMass will be able to run the football is backed up by the year-to-date numbers. Eastern Michigan is poor offensively but this will be one of the weakest defenses they've faced so far and vs the three other "weak" defenses they've faced in 2015 (ODU, Wyoming, Army), they've averaged 39 PPG.

This is a rare winnable game for the Eagles so expect them to pull out all the stops in an effort to secure a "W" but a defense that allows 49 ppg at home is hard to overcome. The Eagles will reach 30+ points in this contest and my numbers project UMass to both run and throw for more than 250-yards, helping this game reach 74 or more.

2) Incorrect sharp movement: Florida International/Marshall OVER

Not sure what group is moving this number up but they can't be doing it based on the offensive projections for the Florida International offense. FIU owns the worst rush offense in college football and Morgantown in mid-November is not the best of places to be throwing the ball around. The Marshall defense is on a roll, allowing just 17.2 PPG for the year and a minuscule 9.2 PPG in it's last four home games.

Marshall, due to injuries, has had to abandon the running game lately but they should return to a ground based attack here versus a susceptible opponent. The Herd threw the ball 59 times last week in their loss to MTSU and that style of play is simply not winning football for the The Herd. They've shown the propensity to throw the ball too much away from home but concentrate on the ground at home, that should be the case in this matchup as well. My numbers project FIU to produce just 267 yards of offense and that will make achieving the current total of 54.5 very difficult.

3) Public movement: Miami, Fl./North Carolina OVER

One of the things that prevents the general public from winning on a regular basis is their insistence on focusing on last week's results. While it's human nature to dwell on what's freshest in your mind, it's not productive from a handicapping perspective. That situation has reared it's head here as the public is now enamored with a Tar Heel team that has won eight consecutive games and hung 66 points on a good Duke defense last week. Admittedly, the opener (58.5) on this one was off but at the current number (67) the market has hammered it into place and there is little value left in playing it OVER. The likely return of QB Brad Kaaya to the Miami offense has something to do with this movement as well but couldn't have accounted for the predominance of the shift as he's not worth 8.5 points.

Three things have gone unrecognized by the public in this matchup. One, the Tar Heel defense is playing very well and has surrendered just 18.6 PPG on the season. Two, this is actually a HUGE game as, believe it or not, Miami still has a shot to win the ACC Coastal. Three, this is not the Miami offense of old as only Wake Forest and Boston College have scored less than the Canes 111 points YTD.

Since Larry Fedora took over at UNC these matchups have seen an average of 49.7 PPG and that was with much worse defenses than he'll bring here. Despite facing a difficult schedule, no Miami game this season has exceeded this current total in regulation…….food for thought.

4) Market manipulation: Alabama/Mississippi State OVER

This is not an obvious head fake and all the market indicators show that this movement is getting some resistance but that the movement is being created by big money players. It's my belief that the opener for this game (49.5) presented the opportunity for a group to push this number up and they did so in an effort to create value. We'll see this number rise up over 51 but crash down on game day. I think the opener on this game was spot on (I made the number 49.5 too) and I see little reason for this game getting bet up.

The Alabama defense matches up very well with a limited Mississippi State offense that relies heavily on the running of QB Dak Prescott, an approach that rarely works against the Tide's talented and aggressive front 7's. The Bulldogs defense will benefit from a few extra days of prep time and their front 7 has performed well versus the power running games they've faced, allowing just 21 points to LSU.

This series has no history of being higher scoring and the last five meetings have seen combined totals of 40, 31, 45, 27, and 45 with the Bulldogs averaging a paltry 11.2 PPG and last year being the only game in which they produced more than one TD. The 'Bama defense should dominate again and I think betting UNDER any number higher than 51 offers some real value.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 11

Michigan (7-2) at Indiana (4-5)

Current Line: Wolverines -13
Opening Line: Wolverines -12

This opening line was very interesting to us. If we rewind one week, we’ll see that undefeated, top 10 Iowa was favored by 6.5 or 7 here against Indiana. This week the oddmakers decided to make 2 loss Michigan a 12.5 point favorite despite the fact that IU gave Iowa all they could handle last week. That tells us that Michigan would be a 5.5 to 6 point favorite over Iowa on a neutral field. That tells us Iowa isn’t as good as their perfect record which we already knew. Speaking of last week, the Hoosiers had a chance to notch their 5th win and move very close to bowl eligibility. However, as has been the case in all of their Big Ten home games, it was close but no cigar. The Hoosiers were down 21-20 with 10:00 minutes remaining the lost another tight one 35-27 giving Iowa the cover (barely). That means Indiana has lost their Big Ten home games by margins of 7 (to Ohio St), 3 (to Rutgers), and 8 (to Iowa). Can they get back up off the matt this week after so many tough defeats?

While Michigan was destroying Rutgers 49-16 last Saturday, they were given some help in the Big Ten East race when MSU lost at Nebraska. Now the Wolverines have a shot at making the Big Ten Championship game which should give them an extra boost. The Michigan defense is still among the best in the nation (2nd nationally in total defense) they have shown some chinks in their armor as of late. After allowing a TOTAL of 14 points in their first 5 games, the Wolverines have given up 69 points in their last 3 games. Indiana is a team, the 5th best scoring offense in the Big Ten at 32 PPG, that is capable of putting points on the board on most anyone. That IU offense ran the ball incredibly well last week with RB Howard racking up 174 yards on an Iowa defense that is ranked 9th nationally at stopping the run. This week they face the 3rd best run defense in the nation (Michigan). Speaking of defense, that just happens to be Indiana’s main problem, and has been for a long time. IU remains dead last in total defense in the Big Ten allowing 504 YPG, nearly 50 yards more than the next worst Big Ten defense (Rutgers). This is Kevin Wilson’s 5th year as IU head coach and if they remain last in defense, they will have finished at the bottom of the Big Ten in total defense in 4 of his 5 seasons. The Michigan offense has scored 28 or more points in 4 of their 5 Big Ten games so they should continue to roll on Saturday.

Maryland (2-7) at Michigan State (8-1)

Current Line: Spartans -15
Opening Line: Spartans -16

Another very interesting line when we speak of “comparisons”. Last week Wisconsin was favored by 12 points at Maryland. This week Michigan State is currently favored by 14 at home vs Maryland. Hmmm… If Wisconsin & MSU rate evenly (which most would probably feel MSU is better) this line should probably be -20 or so. Weird line to say the least. A Michigan State letdown is almost assuredly in order here which could be why this line sits where it does. Sparty lost their first game of the season at Nebraska last week basically taking them out of the National Championship race. The way it happened might be tough to overcome. MSU led by 12 points with under 2:00 minutes remaining and lost 39-38 on a 30-yard controversial TD pass with just 17 seconds left in the game. That was MSU’s 7 spread loss of the season to only 2 ATS wins. Sparty has been unimpressive in Big Ten play despite their now 4-1 mark with their wins coming by 3 vs Purdue, 7 vs Rutgers, 4 vs Michigan (miracle blocked punt) and by 26 vs Indiana (a game that was 28-26 entering the 4th quarter).

Maryland has been playing much better football since the firing of head coach Randy Edsall. They nearly topped Penn State losing 31-30, played Iowa toe to toe losing 13-15 (yardage about even) and then took Wisconsin to the wire in a 31-24 loss last week (yardage about even). That loss last Saturday at home vs the Badgers officially eliminated Maryland from bowl consideration. With the post-season now out of play, don’t be surprised if the Terps throw caution to the wind and come out with some new wrinkles on both sides of the ball. Interim coach Mike Locksley, who has a career record of 2-29 as a head coach, clearly has nothing to lose here. These two met for the first time last season with Michigan State winning easily 37-15 and Sparty was +230 yards in that win.

Ohio State (9-0) at Illinois (5-4)

Current Line: Buckeyes -16.5
Opening Line: Buckeyes -17

This line opened with OSU as a 17 points road favorite. The line quickly dropped to -16 despite over 70% of the wagers coming in on the Buckeyes. It will be interesting to watch the line as the week progresses. JT Barrett is back as the OSU starter after a one week hiatus (suspension). Head coach Urban Meyer said earlier this week he is sticking with Barrett which is not a big surprise. Last week with Cardale Jones back at the helm, the Buckeye offense struggled once again. They gained a total of 55 yards on their first 4 possessions and punted each time. Their first TD came on an interception return. We’ve also documented their problems in the redzone with Jones at QB. Last week they were inside the Minnesota 20 yard line four times and came away with just 14 points. Last week’s 28-14 win over the Gophs was the first time all season the Buckeyes did not outgain their opponents by at least 100 yards (outgained Minny by 62 yards). It’s pretty clear to us this team is much better offensive with Barrett running the show.

Illinois pulled somewhat of a headscratcher last Saturday. After getting shut out a week earlier at Penn State 39-0 and putting up just 167 total yards, the Illini offense looked great last week. Granted the opponent was a “defenseless” Purdue team (105th nationally in total defense). Illinois rolled to an easy 48-14 win with 595 yards of total offense including 382 yards on the ground on 9.3 YPC! The numbers they put up on the ground was of interest to us. That’s because in their previous 3 Big Ten games they rushed for a TOTAL of 138 yards on 64 carries an average of just 46 YPG. Their top RB Ferguson returned from injury which helped along with playing a porous that is allowing 211 YPG on the ground. This was the biggest line move of the week as well and the move was dead on. This one opened at a pick-em and moved all the way to Illinois -5 as the Illini cruised.

Nebraska (4-6) at Rutgers (3-6)

Current Line: Huskers -8.5
Opening Line: Huskers -9.5

Nebraska was able to turn the tables last week vs Michigan State. After enduring 5 excruciating down last second losses, they were able to finally pick up a last second win. The Huskers were able to outscored then undefeated Michigan State by 13 points over the final 2:00 minutes, including a controversial TD with 17 seconds left, to pick up the 1 point win. That win kept their bowl hopes alive as the Husker now need to win here at Rutgers and then upset Iowa at home in the finale to get to 6-6. As we stated last week, this is a program that been to a bowl game every year but two since 1968. Husker QB Tommy Armstrong returned from injury in a big way with 320 yards passing and 2 TD’s. Despite their 2-4 league record, Nebraska has outgained 4 of their 6 Big Ten opponents.

Rutgers is definitely heading the wrong direction and a case could be made that they were never heading in the right direction. Their defense has been shredded for 52, 49, 48, and 49 points their last 4 games. Their only Big Ten win was a 55-52 triumph at Indiana, a game they trailed 52-27 in the second half. Since scoring 55 on IU, this Rutgers offense has scored a total of one offensive TD in their last 3 games and that was with just 13 seconds left at Ohio State. Their offense has no big play potential with WR Carroo on the sidelines. When he was healthy he scored 6 TD’s vs Michigan State and Indiana by himself. As we stated, they have scored ONE offensive TD since and Carroo’s absence has been a big reason. He is listed as probable this week so the offense might get a boost with him back in the line up. These two have met once prior to this year and that was last season when Nebraska rolled to a 42-24 win in Lincoln as a 20.5 point favorite.

Purdue (2-7) at Northwestern (7-2)

Current Line: Wildcats -15
Opening Line: Wildcats -14.5

Purdue had back to back polar opposite weekends. Two weeks ago they topped Nebraska at home giving the Boilers their first Big Ten win of the season. After that big win, Purdue gave head coach Darrell Hazell a contract extension, despite his 2-19 record in Big Ten games, and all was right in West Lafayette. Then all went sour quickly as they Boilermakers were crushed at home 48-14 vs an Illinois team that was shutout 39-0 a week earlier at Penn State. The numbers tell us that Purdue is the worst team in the Big Ten. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and outscored by 10 PPG on the season, both of which are the worst margins in the league. They have been outgained in every conference game this year by at least with 4 of those coming by at least 100 yards. On the road they are just 4-21 SU their last 25. They are 0-3 SU this year away from home but 2-1 ATS.

Northwestern is off a big home win over Penn State 23-21 kicking a FG with 9 seconds left for the win. With a game vs Wisconsin on deck, this could definitely be a letdown spot for the Wildcats. NW is not used to being in this spot as a large Big Ten favorite. In fact, in conference play since 1980, Northwestern has been a favorite of -14 or higher just THREE times. Unless the line drops, Saturday will be the fourth. Despite their 3-2 record in the Big Ten, the Cats have been outscored 25-18 in league play and outgained 356-281 in conference games.

Minnesota (4-5) at Iowa (9-0)

Current Line: Hawkeyes -10
Opening Line: Hawkeyes -12

The Gophers are in the midst of their toughest stretch in the 2015 season. After playing Michigan & Ohio State the last two weeks, they now get undefeated Iowa on Saturday. That means in the last 3 teams they’ve been scheduled to play have a combined record of 25-2! The positive is, Minny is playing their best football of the season right now. They had Michigan beat two weeks ago but a Wolverines goal line stand in the final seconds kept Minnesota out of the endzone. The Gophs rolled up 461 yards on a very good Wolverine defense outgaining them by 165 yards. Last week they traveled to Ohio State and lost 28-14, however the Bucks scored a defensive TD so it was closer than the final score. The players were really playing hard for interim coach Tracy Claeys and hoping he would get a shot at the job. Claeys has now been given the head job at Minnesota so we expect that to be another “boost” for a team that was already playing well and will a lot of emotion.

We thought Iowa would get a very tough test at Indiana and they did. The Hawks held on for the 8-point win getting a cover by just 1-point. The two ran 151 offensive plays and put up almost 900 yards. Dating back to 2000, Iowa has won the last 6 meetings here at home by an average score of 33-17. Last year Minnesota played host to the Hawks and went down 7-0 when Iowa scored on their first possession of the game. The Gophers then went onto score 51 straight points before Iowa hit a meaningless TD with 14 seconds left in a 51-14 Minnesota win. The host has won 8 of the last 10 in this Big Ten rivalry.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(CFB)
Duke
Michigan
Notre Dame
Stanford

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stanford isn't just for smart kids. It's also for smart college football bettors
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

It’s not the most attractive of prices in the world, but it may be time to consider betting the Stanford Cardinal at 15/1 to win the College Football Championship.

While all the talk this week centered upon the latest installment of the Top 4 teams in the country which featured Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame, Stanford is currently sitting in seventh with a very realistic shot at making the playoff.

Over the next three weeks, the Cardinal will host three home games (vs. Oregon, vs. California, vs. Notre Dame) in which they are likely to be favored. A win over Notre Dame would open up at least one spot in the final four, while Ohio State (No. 3) still has to get by Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and, assuming they are still alive, most likely Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.

In addition, undefeated Big 12 powers Oklahoma State and Baylor are about to embark on a grueling three-week stretch that will see the Bears face Oklahoma and then travel to Oklahoma State and TCU before concluding the season at home against Texas. The Cowboys will travel to Iowa State before facing both Baylor and Oklahoma at home.

The downside for the Big 12 is that they didn’t learn their lesson from last year and still don’t offer a conference championship game. Meanwhile, Stanford could add to its already impressive resume at the beginning of December with a victory in the Pac-12 title game against a one-loss Utah program, assuming the Utes survive the rest of their schedule (at Arizona, vs. UCLA, vs. Colorado).

Should the stars align, a 15/1 ticket on Stanford would provide a wonderful hedge opportunity come playoff time in January.

SHARP VS. PUBLIC: BEHIND THE COUNTER

Each and every week this column will converse with a Las Vegas insider in an effort to provide you, our loyal and dedicated readers, with enough inside information possible to make more educated and informed wagers. This week we speak with Chris Andrews, a good friend of mine with more than 30 years in the bookmaking industry. You can follow Chris on Twitter @andrewssports.

*Point spreads current as of Thursday evening.

Sharp sides: South Florida (+2.5) vs. Temple

“South Florida has been the wiseguys’ darling for a few weeks now, if not longer,” Andrews told Covers.com. “They’re on them heavy again this week.”

The primary reason for the South Florida support has to do with Temple playing its third road game in four weeks in addition to the fact that the Owls could get caught looking ahead to next week’s marquee showdown against highly-touted quarterback Paxton Lynch and the Memphis Tigers.

Take note that South Florida is 3-0-1 ATS over its last four home games and 4-1 ATS over its last five games following a win.

Public sides: Ohio State (-16) at Illinois

“Come Saturday, Ohio State is likely to be the most heavily-bet public side, but you’ll notice the line has been coming down in favor of Illinois,” Andrews notes. “That tells you the wiseguys are on Illinois pretty heavy.”

The Buckeyes are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games overall while Illinois is 5-2 ATS over its last seven conference games and 5-1 ATS over its last six outings after allowing fewer than 20 points in the previous contest. In addition, the home team is 5-1 ATS over the last six meetings between these two programs.

Sharp totals: Oklahoma/Baylor Under 76

“The public will be heavily invested in the Over, but the wiseguys like the Under in this spot,” Andrews told Covers.com.

This is an interesting position for the sophisticated gamblers, as the Over is 26-7 in Baylor’s last 33 home games and 18-7-1 in Oklahoma’s last 26 games overall. But when it comes to betting sports, sometimes it’s better to zig while everybody else is busy zagging.

Although, I must say that I don’t enjoy the idea of rooting for stops in a game that features Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield and Baylor’s Corey Coleman.

Public totals: North Carolina State/Florida State Over 54

“This game opened at 51 and has since been bet up to 54, with 90 percent of all tickets on the Over,” Andrews said.

This is Florida State’s homecoming, so expect the Seminoles to bounce back after last Saturday’s loss to Clemson. But be advised that the Under is 10-3 in Florida State’s last 13 home games.

Games experiencing the most action: Baylor (-2.5) vs. Oklahoma and Baylor/Oklahoma Over 76.

MIND-BLOWING TREND OF THE WEEK

The Michigan Wolverines are 1-12 against the spread over their last 13 outings when playing on the road following a game in which they scored 35 or more points.

But that hasn’t stopped the early money from flowing in on Jim Harbaugh’s reclamation project, as the Wolverines have moved from an opening number of -11.5 to as high as -13.5 as of Thursday evening for Saturday’s road trip to Indiana.

Additionally, take note that Indiana is 11-3-1 ATS over its last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record while Michigan is just 12-27-1 ATS over its last 40 road dates.

BIGGEST LINE MOVES OF THE WEEK

Louisville Cardinals (from -10 to -14) vs. Virginia Cavaliers: Louisville is 20-9 against the spread over its last 29 conference games and should find plenty of success through the air against a Virginia defense that has surrendered two or more touchdown passes in eight of nine contests this season. Additionally, the Cavaliers are averaging just 23.0 points per game over their last six outings, so keeping pace with a Cardinals team that hung 41 on Syracuse last weekend could pose a problem.

Old Dominion Monarchs (from -3.5 to -6.5) vs. UTEP Miners: Interesting line move here when you consider the fact that Old Dominion has dropped five of its last seven outings and is now just 1-9-1 ATS over its last 11 home games. UTEP is coming off a 24-21 win over Rice and is now 9-3 ATS over its last 12 conference games. But take note that the Miners rank dead last in C-USA in defending the pass, with just one interception over their last five games.

Northwester Wildcats (from -13 to -16) vs. Purdue Boilermakers: Since suffering back-to-back losses to Michigan and Iowa, respectively, the Wildcats reversed course and claimed victories at Nebraska and against Penn State. Purdue, on the other hand, is the dredge of the Big Ten at 2-7 and less than a week removed from a horrific 48-14 home loss to 5-4 Illinois. Make no mistake about it: this is more of a play against Purdue than anything else.

UCLA Bruins (from -7.5 to -10.5) vs. Washington State Cougars: The Cougars have won four of their last five outings and became bowl eligible after last weekend’s 38-24 victory over Arizona State, so perhaps a potential letdown is on the horizon in Los Angeles against a Jim Mora Jr.-coached squad that has ripped off three straight wins since falling 56-35 at Stanford back on October 15. However, take note that the Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against UCLA and 4-0 ATS over their last four road dates, while the Bruins are 0-4 ATS over their last four contests following a win of more than 20 points.

Maryland Terrapins (from +18 to +15) at Michigan State Spartans: Potential letdown spot here for the Spartans who feel they got jobbed in a 39-38 loss at Nebraska on a controversial officiating call late in the fourth quarter last Saturday night. Michigan State is just 1-4 ATS over its last five home games while Maryland is 4-0 ATS over its last four games overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'SEC Showdown'

Alabama's unrelenting defense smothering LSU's running beast Leonard Fournette walked off with a 30-16 victory Saturday and have now won six straight (3-3 ATS) since suffering its lone blemish against Mississippi. Nick Saban's troops hit the road to take on Mississippi State fresh off a 31-13 win at Mizzou and winners of four in-a-row (3-1 ATS).

Last year at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Bulldogs came out of the matchup on the wrong end of a 25-20 decision marking a 7th straight straight-up loss in the series but did grab the cash as 9-point road dogs. Mississippi State could be money in-the-bank once again, Bulldogs have cashed last two at home vs 'Bama' and have thrived vs the betting line facing a team with a winning record (12-5 ATS). Adding fuel, MSU is 8-1 ATS last nine as dog and 11-4 last 15 in role. 'Bama' is 0-4 ATS following a cover its previous effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Oregon at Stanford November 14, 7:30 EST

Since losing its opener at Northwestern the Cardinals have been ripping up the opposition reeling off eight straight (7-1 ATS) with the most recent a 42-10 victory over Colorado as 14.5 point road favorite. Ducks muddling along during first six games of the season posting a 3-3 record (2-4 ATS) have turned it around winning three consecutive SU/ATS racking up 43.7 points/game. Ducks have to be pleased with the offense of late, but doubts still linger on the defensive side as they allowed the three opponents 34.3 per/contest. Defensive minded Cardinals are handing offensive-minded Ducks 10 points of offense. Trends of interest: Cardinals 4-9 ATS in series, Ducks 6-0 ATS taking points, 8-0 ATS away since 2014.


Oklahoma State at Iowa State Cyclones Novenber 14, 3:30 EST

Oklahoma State overlooked all season served notice this week dominating previously unbeaten TCU upsetting Horned Frogs 49-29 as 6.0 point home underdogs. 'Pokes' behind Mason Rudolph's 352 yards, five touchdowns have now won 11 straight dating back to last year. 'Pokes' head to Jack Trice Stadium this week to take on Iowa State Cyclones. 'Pokes' have won the past three meetings (3-0 ATS) by an average 23.0 PPG and have had the upper hand in 5 of 6 encncounters (5-1 ATS) outscoring Cyclones by 21,8 PPG. Trends of note: 'Pokes' 6-1 ATS away from Stillwater, 9-2 ATS in November, Cyclones 0-5-2 ATS at home vs. a team with a winning road record, 3-8 ATS vs conference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 11 Opening Line Report and Picks
by Alan Matthews

So much for the Heisman Trophy race being over.

That was largely the thinking as LSU's Leonard Fournette was lapping the field. All Fournette needed to take the trophy home next month in New York City was to have a good game at Alabama on Saturday night. However, the Crimson Tide held Fournette to a season-low 31 yards as Alabama won 30-16. LSU came in averaging 309 rushing yards and finished with 54. The Tigers were quite simply pushed around by Bama.

Fournette is now the +200 second-favorite for the Heisman, with Tide running back Derrick Henry the new +150 favorite. Henry was the star of that LSU game with 210 yards and three touchdowns on a whopping 38 carries. Henry has scored touchdowns in 14 consecutive games, the longest current FBS streak. Alabama is now the clear favorite to win the SEC West as it got some help from Arkansas on Saturday with the Razorbacks upsetting Ole Miss thanks in part to an insane lateral play. The Rebels had held the head-to-head tiebreaker with Alabama. LSU now has to win out and have the Tide lose once to win the West. That's not impossible as Alabama is at Mississippi State this week and visits Auburn in the Iron Bowl to close the regular season. Florida awaits the West winner in the SEC title game.

I expect Alabama to jump up to No. 2 in the new College Football Playoff rankings (where LSU was) to be released Tuesday night. The Tide were No. 4 in last week's first rankings. Clemson will stay at No. 1 after its comeback win over Florida State clinched the ACC Atlantic Division. The Tigers also are No. 1 in the new AP poll; that's a first for Clemson since 1981. Ohio State should stay at No. 3 in the rankings. Which team will be No. 4? Probably either Baylor (No. 4 in AP poll or Oklahoma State (No. 5). The Pokes had the most impressive win of last week in stomping TCU and ending the Frogs' playoff hopes as well as Trevone Boykin's Heisman chances.

Here are a few Week 11 opening lines that caught my eye. Rankings from AP poll.

Bowling Green at Western Michigan (+3, 75.5): Great MACtion game on Wednesday night and a potential preview of the Mid-American Conference title game. Western Michigan is atop the MAC East Division by a game over Toledo, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Bowling Green is two up in the MAC East on Buffalo and will clinch the division for a third year in a row with a victory. The Falcons have the likely MAC Player of the Year in quarterback Matt Johnson. He is No. 2 nationally with 3,686 yards passing, No. 2 in completion percentage (70.5), No. 2 in TD passes (33) and No. 3 in rating (179.1). Johnson has only thrown three interceptions. BGSU coach Dino Babers is going to be in the mix for a few Power 5 conference jobs this offseason. Babers' Falcons have had at least 532 yards in all nine games and are fourth in the country averaging 593.7 yards per game. WMU beat Bowling Green 26-14 last season. The pick: Western Michigan.

No. 2 Ohio State at Illinois (+16.5, 51.5): Maryland at No. 14 Michigan State (-16, 58): I'm grouping these Saturday games together because I think they are huge traps for the Buckeyes and Spartans as those two clash in Week 12 in Columbus. OSU looked a bit shaky this past Saturday in a 28-14 home win over Minnesota. Cardale Jones started at quarterback with J.T. Barrett suspended; he had been named the new starter during the Buckeyes' bye week but then had an OVI arrest. Coach Urban Meyer said Monday he will go with Barrett as this week's starter as long as he has a good week of practice. Sparty, meanwhile, was on the wrong end of one of the worst calls I can remember seeing in a college football game in years -- even worse than what happened at the end of the Duke-Miami game a few weeks ago. Sparty lost 39-38 at Nebraska when Huskers receiver Brandon Reilly came back inbounds to make the winning TD catch. The officials ruled that it was a good catch because Reilly had been forced out. Sorry, but the video shows that wasn't the case. Coach Mark Dantonio took the high road and didn't say much about that call, just that his team needed to play better -- MSU was up by 12 with less than two minutes left. The picks: I'm taking the points on both.

No. 25 Memphis at No. 16 Houston (-6, 71): These two American Athletic Conference programs are very similar right now. They each have an offensive-minded rising young star at head coach. That's Justin Fuente for Memphis and Tom Herman for Houston. I'd be shocked if either guy is at his current school next season as both have already been linked to openings at Power 5 conference schools. Memphis was the leading contender for the Group of 5's New Year Six bowl slot as the Tigers were No. 13 in the first CFP rankings. But they are going to drop after Saturday's upset loss to Navy. Memphis, which was held to a season-low 20 points (28 points below its season average) against Navy, is now a game behind Houston and the Midshipmen in the AAC West Division. The unbeaten Cougars will be the highest-ranked non-Power 5 school in the new CFP rankings. The pick: Houston and "over." Surprised total isn't closer to 80.

No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 4 Baylor (-3, TBA): The clear game of the week and finally -- finally! --- Baylor plays someone decent. ESPN College GameDay will be in Waco. Freshman QB Jarrett Stidham made his first career start for the Bears last week against Kansas State and looked terrific, throwing for 419 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for a score in place of the injured Seth Russell, who is out for the season. I think this line would be a few points bigger if Russell was healthy. Baylor might be unbeaten, but it can't afford a loss to make the playoff. Not with that laughable nonconference schedule. The Sooners lost to Texas earlier this season, so they can't afford a defeat, either. They still control their Big 12 destiny as they host TCU next week and finish at Oklahoma State. The Sooners have won four straight games, outscoring their opponents 232-50. They have surpassed 50 points in four consecutive games for the first time since 2008. ESPN's Football Power Index, which evaluates how teams might fare against an average opponent on a neutral site, ranks Oklahoma first and Baylor second nationally. I don't get that OU ranking at all. Baylor has routed OU the past two seasons by a combined score of 89-26. The pick: Baylor. This will also have a monster total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Nov. 14

Matchup Skinny Edge

PITT at DUKE
Wild games past two years with road teams winning high-scoring decisions of 58-55 and 51-48. Cutcliffe only 2-3 vs. spread last 5 as host though he was 12-3 vs. spread at Durham past three years. Duke still 24-11-1 vs. line since 2013.

Slight to Duke, based on team trends.


TULSA at CINCINNATI
Tulsa on road, where it is 4-0 vs. line this season. Golden Hurricane now 7-1 last 8 vs. line away. Tuberville though has covered 5 of last 6 TY and three straight at Nippert.

Tulsa, based on recent trends.


UTSA at CHARLOTTE
UTSA 1-3 vs. line last four away from Alamodome but Coker is 4-2 last six as road chalk.

Slight to UTSA, based on team trends.


UMASS at EASTERN MICHIGAN
UMass no covers last five TY. Also 0-4 vs. line on road and no covers last six as visitor since late 2014, though did whip Eagles 36-14 LY. EMU just 1-7 vs. line last seven TY, 7-14-1 vs. spread since arrival LY, and no covers last four at Ypsilanti.

Slight to UMass, based on EMU negatives.


MTSU at FAU
Blue Raiders 0-4-1 last five vs. line on C-USA road. Though Stockstill has won last seven SU vs. FAU. Owls just 1-6 vs. spread last seven at Boca Raton.

MTSU, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN at INDIANA
IU wasn't closer than 16 the past two years vs. Brady Hoke in pair of losses and no covers last four TY. Wolverines 2-7 vs. line last nine away from Ann Arbor.

Slight to Michigan, based on recent trends.


FIU at MARSHALL
FIU has covered six of last seven TY, and is 3-1 as dog TY, 11-5 last 16 in role. Though Golden Panthers destroyed last two by Herd. Marshall 2-5 vs. spread last 7 at Huntington.

Slight to FIU, based on team trends.


AKRON at MIAMI-OHIO
RedHawks 4-1 vs. line at Yager Stadium TY and have covered 3 of last 4 vs. Zips. Miami 10-5-1 last 15 vs. spread since late 2014. Bowden 1-5-1 last seven as road chalk.

Miami-O, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at MICHIGAN STATE
Locksley 3-0 vs. number with Terps, who have covered last four TY. MSU 2-7 vs. line TY.

Maryland, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at HOUSTON
Cougs have won and covered this matchup the past two years. Memphis 7-2-2 vs. line last 11 away from Liberty Bowl. UH 25-11-1 last 37 on board.

Slight to Houston, based on series and team trends.


OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS
Urban Meyer 8-3 vs. line last 11 away from Columbus but only 2-3 last 5 as DD chalk away from horseshoe. Illini 8-4 last 12 as home dog (1-1 TY).

Slight to OSU, based on team trends.


TULANE at ARMY
West Point 0-2 as chalk TY and 6-16 last 22 in role. Wave has covered last 3 and 4 of last 6 TY.

Slight to Tulane, based on team trends.


CLEMSON at SYRACUSE
Dabo 7-2-2 last 11 on board since late LY. Dabo had dropped 4 straight as road chalk before recent wins at Miami and NCS. Road team has covered last two years in series.

Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at SOUTH FLORIDA
Bulls 7-2 vs. line TY and Taggart 4-0 vs. points at home in 2015. Owlies also 7-2 vs. line TY and 11-3 last 14 on board.

Slight to USF, based on team trends.


NEBRASKA at RUTGERS
Mike Riley now 6-16 vs. spread since 2014 at OSU & Huskers. But Nebraska 9-3 last 12 vs. spread away from Lincoln. 'Gers 4-2 vs. line as Big Ten host since LY.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


UTEP at ODU
ODU 1-10 last 11 vs. spread at Norfolk. UTEP 2-5 last seven vs. line away.

Slight to UTEP, based on ODU home mark.


KANSAS at TCU
KU winless SU and only 2-7 vs. line for Beaty TY and 2-9-1 vs. spread last 12 away from Lawrence. Frogs 4-1 laying 20 or more since LY and 10-1 last 11 vs. spread at Fort Worth.

TCU, based on team trends.


KANSAS STATE at TEXAS TECH
Bill Snyder no SU wins last five TY, but 3-2 as dog TY and 19-9 as dog since 2011. Snyder has brutalized TT last four with wins and covers since losing 66-14 in his return year to leach in Lubbock back in 2009.

K-State, based on Bill Snyder dog ans series trends.


KENTUCKY at VANDERBILT
Vandy 3-1 SU, 4-0 vs. line last four vs. UK. Dores 3-1-1 vs. line last five as host. Stoops on 3-11-1 spread slide since mid 2014.

Slight to Vandy, based on series and team trends.


PURDUE at NORTHWESTERN
Hazell actually 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Ross-Ade. Cats 2-1 vs. line as Ryan Field chalk TY but just 3-9 laying points at Evanston since 2013.

Purdue, based on team trends.


NC STATE at FLORIDA STATE
NCS on 9-3 spread streak since late 2014 and Pack 8-1 vs. line last 9 away from Raleigh. Jimbo 4-8 last 12 as Doak Campbell chalk.

NCS, based on recent trends.


UTAH STATE at AIR FORCE
Force 9-2 vs. line last 11 at home but has lost badly vs. Utags past two seasons.

Slight to AFA, based on series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at TEXAS STATE
GSU 4-0 vs. line away TY as road team unbeaten vs. line in all eight Panther games to date! Franchione 1-5 vs. line last six TY and 3-6 last 9 as home chalk.

Georgia State, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at ULM
ULM 1-5 vs. line last six TY and now 0-6-1 last 7 as Belt host. AS has won and covered last 5 vs. ULM.

A State, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at UCLA
Leach has covered six straight TY and is 4-0 vs. spread away TY. He's 11-2 as visiting dog since 2013. Mora 3-8-1 vs. spread last 11 at Rose Bowl.

WSU, based on team trends.


TEXAS at WEST VIRGINIA
Horns have lost and failed to cover all three as visitor TY. Texas has won and covered last two meetings and WV no covers last five TY. Mounties 3-13 last 16 as Morgantown chalk.

Slight to Texas, based on series trends.


WAKE FOREST at NOTRE DAME
Deacs 1-6 vs. line last seven away (1-5 as road dog that span). Irish 5-0 vs. line at home TY!

ND, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Dan Mullen and Dak have covered last two years. Saban, though MSU has not won SU in series since Sylvester Croom beat Nick's first Bama team in 2007. MSU 8-1 last nine as dog and 11-4 last 15 in role.

MSU, based on team and recent series trends.


MIAMI-FLA at NORTH CAROLINA
Canes have covered 4 of last 5 in series. But Heels 8-0 SU and 6-2 vs. line last eight TY.

UNC, based on recent trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at RICE
USM 7-2 vs. line TY and 3-1 vs. line away. Rice 1-5 vs. line last five TY and 3-7 last 10 as dog.

USM, based on recent trends.


SMU at NAVY
SMU 1-5 vs. line last five TY. Mids 6-1 last seven as Annapolis chalk and 10-4 last 14 vs. spread overall.

Navy, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at IOWA STATE
OSU 3-7-1 last eleven as road chalk (1-1-1 TY). Though Gundy has also won and covered last three vs. Rhoads since ISU's 37-31 OT upset late in 2011.

Slight to ISU, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS at LSU
Payback for LSU after 17-0 loss LY. But Les just 2-3 last five in revenge. Tigers have dropped last three spread decision vs. Hogs. Bielema 8-3 last 11 as dog.

Arkansas, based on series and team trends.


GEORGIA at AUBURN
Richt 2-6 vs. spread in 2015, but Malzahn on 2-12 spread skid since mid 2014. Richt has won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Auburn since Cam departed after 2010.

Slight to Georgia, based on series trends.


WASHINGTON at ARIZONA STATE
Note U-Dub "under" 17-6 for Petersen and 19-6 "under" since late 2013. Graham has rolled Huskies past two years, but Sun Devils 1-4 vs. line at Tempe TY.

"Under" and UW, based on "totals" and team trends.


OKLAHOMA at BAYLOR
Briles has routed Stoops last two and is 3-1 SU and vs. line last four in series. But Stoops 7-2 vs. line TY and 3-1 last four as dog.

Slight to OU, based on team trends.


BYU vs. MISSOURI (at Kansas City)
Mizzou 2-6 vs. line TY and "under" a stunning 8-0!

"Under," based on "totals" and team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at TROY
Troy not bad with 3 straight covers and 6-2 last eight vs. line.

Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at NEVADA
Polian has won and covered both vs. Caragher past two years. Pack has won and covered last two TY at Reno. SJS 2-2 vs. line away TY after dropping all six vs. number away LY, if dog here note 1-6 last nine as road dog. Pack 11-1 SU last twelve meetings.

Nevada, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at CAL
Beavs just 2-7 vs. line TY and 4-17 last 21 on board since 2014, 1-8 vs. line last nine away. Cal cooling off again losing last four SU and 1-4 vs. line last five TY.

Slight to Cal, based on recent OSU woes.


APP STATE at IDAHO
Vandals 2-2 vs. line at Kibbie Dome TY and 11-4 last 15 overall as dog (2-2 as home dog). App 6-1 vs. spread last seven as visitor.

App, based on team trends.


UNLV at COLORADO STATE
UNLV 11-4 vs. spread last 15 as visitor. Bobo only 2-4-1 last seven vs. line TY.

Slight to UNLV, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA at LOUISVILLE
Mike London's Cavs 12-3-1 last 16 as dog since late 2013. 'Ville just 6-10 last 16 as Papa John's chalk.

UVa, based on team trends.


UTAH at ARIZONA
Cats only 1-3 vs. spread in Tucson TY, but Rich-Rod has whipped Utah three straight, all by DD margins. Utes 9-2 vs. spread last 11 away from SLC.

Slight to Utah, based on recent trends.


NORTH TEXAS at TENNESSEE
UNT had covered three straight for Canales since McCarney firing, before loss at La Tech. But Mean Green had dropped nine straight as road dog prior.

Slight to UT, based on team trends.


FLORIDA at SOUTH CAROLINA
Cocks 3-0 vs. line for Elliott. McElwain 6-2-1 vs. line TY and now 27-10-1 last 38 on board.

Slight to UF, based on recent trends.


OREGON at STANFORD
Stanford 4-0 vs. line at Farm TY and 10-2 vs. spread last 12 on board since late 2014. But Ducks 4-0 vs. line away in 2014 and road team 8-1 vs. line in UO games this season!

Oregon, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at BOISE STATE
Lobos have covered three vs. Boise since Bob Davie arrived in 2012, and Davie 10-5 vs. spread away since 2013.

UNM, based on series and team trends.


MINNESOTA at IOWA
Floyd of Rosedale! Revenge for Iowa after 51-14 loss LY. Ferentz only 2-3 vs. line at Iowa City TY despite unbeaten SU mark. Gophers 3-1 as dog TY and 12-5 as dog since 2013.

Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.


WYOMING at SAN DIEGO STATE
Wyo was 4-0 vs. line on road TY prior to Utag loss. DSU has won and covered last five TY.

SDSU, based on recent trends.


FRESNO STATE at HAWAII
UH 1-7 vs. line last eight and has lost 8 of last 9 vs. line at Aloha Stadium vs. MW foes. FSU however 1-7 vs. line last eight TY and no covers last five on road.

Slight to Hawaii, based on Fresno negatives.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Post: 7:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$8800 - N/W $50000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium


# 4 RAISING RICHARD 5/2

# 9 SOUTHWIND ALICE 6/1

# 6 ROCKY DE VIE 4/1

RAISING RICHARD looks great to best this bunch. Have to make Carroll the bet here if only for the last thirty days win pct. Big likelihood for the win. Some trainers just fit better with certain standardbreds. That seems to be the case right here with Puddy. A competitive wager. SOUTHWIND ALICE - Could surprise us at a good price. Don't leave out. ROCKY DE VIE - He's doing work in good form, recording very promising speed ratings. An excellent selection. Good for a win bet just off the amazing prior class numbers. Have to like this standardbred.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 10:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$4900 - COLTS & GELDINGS - NON-WINNERS $2,000 LAST 5 STARTS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
Chatsworth Consortium


# 6 PAPPY'S PAL 5/2

# 2 GIACOMETTI 4/1

# 7 PREDATOR DVM 3/1

PAPPY'S PAL sure does look ready to score. Not many knocks against this nice horse, let's give him a shot. Many expert selectors know speed is of the utmost importance. This standardbred has credentials with a 87 avg number. This standardbred looks very good considering the high class figures. Don't throw out of any exotics. GIACOMETTI - Starters win from this hole at Saratoga Harness with better than average regularity, suggesting this tremendous wager. PREDATOR DVM - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win rate. A great class horse shouldn't be be passed over. With an avg class statistic of 86 all signs look good for this one.