Saturday 10/4/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Comp NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2014: 10:30 PM EST

(387) UTAH VS (388) UCLA

Take: (387) UTAH.

Reason: A look ahead spot for unbeaten UCLA, with Oregon on deck. This UCLA defense hasn't been up to par, 63rd in the nation in points allowed. They gave up 35 points and over 400 yards to Memphis on this field. A dynamite Uta offense is in town averaging 42 ppg with great balance. Utah has a bye on deck and the Bruins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games in October. Play Utah!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Allen Sports

SAT FREE Selection

SF GIANTS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Alabama vs. Ole Miss

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Alabama -4.5

The No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) opened the season looking vulnerable with a 33-23 victory over West Virginia as a 22-point favorite. They came into the year with a quarterback controversy, and that wasn’t worked out until a 41-0 triumph against Florida Atlantic in Week 2.

After a 52-12 win over Southern Miss, the Crimson Tide put together their best effort of the season in a 42-21 win over Florida two weeks ago. They have since had a bye week to get ready for Ole Miss, which is a big advantage.

That win over the Gators was an even bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Alabama outgained Florida 645-200 for the game. Blake Sims has taken ahold of the starting QB job and ran with it. He threw for 445 yards and four touchdowns with one interception against the Gators.

Amari Cooper is a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender after catching 10 balls for 201 yards and three touchdowns in the win. The defense limited Jeff Driskel to 9 of 28 passing for 93 yards with one touchdown and two picks in an effort that shows this stop unit is back.

No. 11 Ole Miss (4-0) is getting a lot of love here because it has opened the season a perfect 4-0 against the spread through its first four games. However, it has yet to be really tested as its four wins have come against the likes of Boise State, Vanderbilt, LA Lafayette and Memphis.

I believe that lack of competition will work against the Rebels here, while a much stronger schedule for the Crimson Tide will benefit them. Ole Miss also played last week, so it will not have the benefit of a bye like Alabama. It only led Memphis 7-3 at the end of three quarters, too.

To say this has been a one-sided series would be a massive understatement. Alabama is 10-0 in its last 10 meetings with Ole Miss, and the last five victories have come by 25, 19, 45, 13 and 19 points. The Crimson Tide have held the Rebels to averages of 254 yards and 12 points per game in the last 10 meetings.

The Crimson Tide are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 October games. Alabama is 43-22 ATS in its last 65 road games off two or more consecutive wins. Plays against any team (OLE MISS) – with an incredible defense – allowing 4.2 or less yards/play, after allowing 150 or less total yards in their previous game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet Alabama Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price

Utah vs. UCLA

Bonus Play for Saturday Utah +13.5

The Key: Utah blew a 21-0 lead in last week's 28-27 loss to Washington State. Sickened by that loss, I expect to see an inspired performance from the Utes Saturday evening. They are 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss of six points or less under coach Whittingham and have won these contests by an average score of 29.0 to 26.3. Utah has won or lost by seven points in each of its last four matchups with UCLA. It lost last season's battle by just seven points despite six turnovers. The 9th-ranked Bruins have been overvalued this season and are just 1-3 ATS as a result. Utah is 3-1 ATS and has been an impressive underdog the last couple decades. It's 55-32 ATS when catching points since 1992. While UCLA has been pretty good offensively, it's struggled on the defensive side of the football. That's a big reason why it didn't cover either game it was favored by double digits in. The Bruins rank 101st in the country in total defense with 450.8 ypg allowed, and they rank 122nd in pass defense with 313.8 ypg allowed. QB Travis Wilson is off to a strong start with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. I expect him to have success against UCLA's suspect backend. He'll be extremely focused too after tossing six picks in last year's battle. Take the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Merril

California vs. Washington State

Bonus Play Washington State

California is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot. The Golden Bears gave up 36 points in the fourth quarter two weeks ago and lost 49-45 in Arizona. Last week, California survived Colorado 59-56 in overtime. So in back-to-back weeks, California has played in high-scoring shootouts that were decided late. It’s hard to imagine them having much left in the tank, especially since they are now back on the road.

Washington State is starting to play better, and that was evident in their 28-27 win at Utah last week as a +13 point road underdog. Washington State enters this week on a perfect 3-0 ATS run and they won easily 44-22 last year at California as a -2 point road favorite.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Michigan vs. Rutgers

Bonus Play Rutgers -3

Michigan has played poorly so far in 2014. Brady Hoke is still the coach of the Wolverines as they head to New Jersey to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. QB Gary Nova has led the way for Rutgers. It is odd to see Rutgers in the Big Ten and odd to see them as field goal favorites against a program like Michigan but I think Rutgers wins by 7 to 10 points so take the -3.

 

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Doc's Sports

Utah vs. UCLA

Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports (4-0 Run the last 4 Weeks on College Football Bonus Plays). #387 Take Utah Utes +13 over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN)

The Bruins finally started to flex their muscles last Thursday against Arizona State putting up 62 points against a vastly overrated Sun Devil team without their starting quarterback. The Bruins will have a much harder time moving the football against an aggressive Utes defense. Utah is coming off a puzzling loss to Washington State at home last week but despite that setback they still have a ton of talent on both sides of the football. I just do not see them getting blown out in in this game. UCLA is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games played during the month of October.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo

Hawaii vs. Rice

Bonus Play Rice

Rice is coming off a big win last week at Southern Mississippi which put a halt to its three-game losing skid to open the season. The Owls lost against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, which are a combined 9-0, away from home and then dropped a tough three-point setback against a very good Old Dominion team at home. This continues an important five-game stretch against mediocre opposition as Rice needs to take care of business if it wants to have a chance at a third straight bowl game as the back end of the schedule is loaded. Hawaii is coming off a bye week following a loss at Colorado two weeks ago which was the Warriors first road game of the season. The road and Hawaii mix like oil and vinegar as it has lost 14 consecutive games off the island and while it has covered half of those games, the number makes the difference. Hawaii is 2-4 ATS in those games when getting only single digits and this lines matches what the Owls were giving to Old Dominion in their only other home game. Coming off a bye week has hurt Hawaii even more as it is 4-18 AYS in its last 22 road games following a week off. Rice meanwhile is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games coming off a double-digit road win while going 23-5 ATS in its last 28 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game. Play (362) Rice Owls

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Marshall vs. Old Dominion

Free Pick on Marshall Thundering Herd -

I got no problem laying this number on Marshall. This Thundering Herd team is better than than a lot of the power 5 conference teams and have opened up 2014 on a mission. They went on the road in their last game and beat a very good Akron team 48-17, who came back the next week and upset Pittsburgh on the road. Marshall has outgained their first four opponents by a combined 1,074 yards. Old Dominion was just outgained in a 28-41 home loss to Middle Tennessee by 136 yards.

With Marshall coming off their first bye week of the season, I look for this team to be clicking on all cylinders and take advantage of a far inferior opponent. Defensively the Monarchs will not be able to stop the Thundering Herd from scoring at will and offensively I look for them to struggle to put up points. Old Dominion is only averaging 4.7 yards/rush against teams who on average are giving up 5.0 ypc. They are also averaging just 7.6 yards/completion against defenses that have allowed an average of 7.7. Marshall is giving up just 3.1 yards/carry and 5.5 yards/completion.

This is also a difficult spot for Old Dominion, who are coming off the emotional rush of getting the opportunity to play a nationally televised game in primetime last Friday. Losing like they did (trailed 24-0) will make it that much harder to bounce back.

Marshall is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring more than 40 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 200 yards, while Old Dominion is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing more than 40 points.

Road favorites of 14.5 or more points off 2 straight wins by 28 or more points against an opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more at the half are 24-3 ATS since 1992. That's a 89% system in favor of the Thundering Herd. Take Marshall!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Stanford vs. Notre Dame

1* Bonus Play Stanford -2.5

Notre Dame, a top 10 team right now is a joke in my opinion. This team has been all defense against terrible offensive opponents along with Everett Golson, but it's about to get real on Saturday. Notre Dame has the 98th ranked strength of schedule as they have played the worst of the Big Ten while Stanford has played a couple of tough opponents out of the Pac 12.

Notre Dame can't get a running game going especially in this game and Stanford's pass defense is ranked #1 with 3.7 yards/att allowed. Notre Dame continues to re-shuffle the offensive line and it's about to come back and bite them in this match up. This offense has played mediocre defenses with the exception of Michigan whose defense has played well ranking 10th in yards/play allowed. Notre Dame did win that game 31-0, but hidden in that game is the fact that Michigan held them to 280 yards, but turned the ball over 4 times. It's not in Stanford's nature to turn the ball over.

Stanford is just the more balanced offense although their running game is not as effective so far compared to previous years. Keith Hogan has just as good numbers as Golson. He also faces a ND squad whose defense has only 3 starters from the last year's meeting. This Irish defense has played well over their head and I think it's about to catch up when they face a QB that can actually beat them with his arm.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Stryker

Arizona State vs. USC

Bonus Play USC

In last week's 35-10 home win over Oregon State, USC's defense held Beavers quarterback Sean Mannion to just 123 yards passing (a career low). Mannion is one of the Pac-12's best behind center. Matched up against an Arizona State offense that will send backup Mike Bercovici on the field, the Men of Troy's defense will dominate once again.

In case you forgot, this is a huge revenge game for Southern Cal. Last year, the Trojans got steamrolled by the Sun Devils in the desert 62-41. That was the most points a USC defense has ever allowed. In that victory, ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly shredded the proud Southern Cal "D" for 351 yards and three touchdowns. Rest assured, backup Bercovici won't duplicate those numbers.

A quick look at the history in this series shows that USC has posted a reliable 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS record in its last 10 at home against Arizona State. The Trojans have won seven straight in the Coliseum against the Sun Devils by an average of 21.0 points per game too. Equally impressive, as a double-digit Pac-12 home favorite battling with revenge, the Men of Troy have posted a solid 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS record.

The conference road has given ASU fits lately. According to my database, the Sun Devils are just 22-35 SU and ATS in their last 57 as a Pac-12 guest including a weak 8-22 SU and 10-20 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up win. Defensively, head coach Todd Graham's kids have issues. In its last two games against Colorado and UCLA, ASU surrendered a whopping 47 first downs and 1,125 yards. Matched up against a USC offense that has popped for an average of 32.8 points and 447.5 yards per game, the Sun Devils will have trouble keeping head coach Steve Sarkisian's kids out of the endzone.

In a revenge mode and sporting a defense that has given up an average of only 17.5 points and 354.3 yards per game, the Trojans will be prepared to make a statement. Watch Bercovici struggle in just his second career start. Take USC. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Alexander

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia

Bonus Play for Saturday Pittsburgh +6

Bottom Line: Pittsburgh clearly didn't get up for Akron last week. It was still feeling the effects of a loss to Iowa where it blew a 10-point lead. After losing by double digits at home to a team it was favored by 20.5 against, I'll be shocked if the Panthers don't come ready to play. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games that are off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite are 39-11 ATS since 1992. Virginia has covered the spread in 7 straight games going back to last season and is being overvalued here as a result. It was a dog in 5 of these covers so laying points against a quality opponent is new territory. The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS as a home fave of 7 points or less under coach London and have lost these games by an average of 9.4 points. Bet Pitt.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Karpinski

Ohio vs. Central Michigan

Bonus Play Ohio

Ohio has a troublesome running game with A.J. Ouellette, but even though they lack a strong scoring game, only putting up more than 17 pts this season twice, and they have had problems with moving the ball through the air. Central Michigan is no offensive powerhouse either to be too concerned about. Central Michigan lacks an offense as well, only putting up 19.8 a game. Recently only scoring 14/gm and losers of 3 straight, this wont be changed here. Let's make it 4 in a row.
Central Michigan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Ohio taking the points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Kent State vs. Northern Illinois

Bonus Play Northern Illinois

Real simple here, Kent State is totally out manned here. They are one of the worst offensive teams in Division I football. 124th on offense and to add salt to the wound they are 111th on defense, mainly because they are on the field the entire game and get gassed. West rested NIU off a bye week and 2 weeks to think about the beat down at Arkansas, who is a good SEC team. No Illinois loaded on offense, killer running game, good QB, great WR and they have OWNED the Flashes, averaging 40 ppg the last 3 times and covering all 3. BLOWOUT. If this game did not come after a bye week I might hesitate at the big number, not here, plus a home game. A little rainy for this one (extended forecast) so it favors the passing game and No Illinois has that.

Rarely do I lay 20+ points but with a total mis-match and a team wanting to get back on track, consider Kent State the sacrificial lamb on Saturday afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Pittsburgh vs. Virginia

Bonus Play Pittsburgh

Panthers (+) over Cavaliers- Okay, Pittsburgh gets to play one of their old rivals as matches with Penn State and West Virginia are a thing of the past. Take PANTHERS!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

LSU vs. Auburn

Saturday's Free Pick ---Auburn Tigers -7.5---

Auburn's 13-game ATS winning streak was put to rest in their 20-14 win at Kansas State and they once again failed to cover in their last contest, beating Louisiana Tech 45-17 as a 33-point favorite. It didn't take long for the public to jump off this team, as nearly 65% of the bets are coming in on LSU.

I'm not exactly sure why. The Tigers have struggled in their two games against top level opponents in Wisconsin and Mississippi State. They were fortunate to beat the Badgers (Melvin Gordon got injured) and lost at home to the Bulldogs 29-34 in a game that was a lot more lopsided than the final score would indicate. In order to stop Auburn you have to be able to stop the run and LSU has given up 268 yards to Wisconsin and 302 rushing yards to Mississippi State. The Badgers have little to know passing threat, so that's a good sign that even though they know it's coming they won't be able to stop it.

This is also a great spot for Auburn, as they come in off a bye and are going to come out 100% focused and motivated after their ugly loss to the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year. Auburn knows they need to make a statement and I expect them to do just that.

Key Trends - LSU is 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/rush, and are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 after playing 2 straight at home. Auburn is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 after allowing 14 or less in each of their last two games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. BET AUBURN -7.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Diamond

Oklahoma vs. TCU

FREE SELECTION SATURDAY is the Oklahoma Sooners:

Play on: (ESPN #4) Oklahoma (375) over (ESPN #25) TCU @ 3:30

Horned Frogs start at home this Saturday with a huge game against the Sooners. Both units have top billing in the key twenty-five at ESPN. OU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, while TCU is 3-0 SU & ATS. The Sooners wins have been against Louisiana Tech, Tulsa, Tennessee and West Virginia. OU has CRUSED the opposition 179-43. Last weekend they were on a bye. TCU has wins over Samford, Minnesota and SMU. Interesting the Horned Frogs had 2 bye weeks in September which is nice edge before playing a team like Oklahoma. Inside the series Oklahoma (-8) won last season at home 20-17, and (-5) 24-17 at TCU in 2012.

Oklahoma finished 11-2 last season, taking out Saban and the Tide 45-31 in bowl action. They do have 14 returning starters and 48 lettermen on roster. The Horned Frogs were 4-8, while bringing back 16 starters and 47 lettermen. Obviously, both clubs are deep and talented. Oklahoma was our projected National Champion for 2014-2015. Total offense OU is ranked #47 (1,980) 44.8 points per game. TCU shows #91 in total offense (1,596) scoring at 44.7 points per game clip. Defensively we find TCU #1 (656) holding opponents (3) to 7 points per game, while blanking SMU 56-0. Don’t get too excited about the SMU game as the ‘Stangs have scored just 12 points in four games. On defense, OU is rated #28 (1,399) containing the opposition (4) to just 16.3 points a game. We note, a key advantage for the Sooners is their OL which averages 325.8 pounds vs. coach Patterson’s DL (4-2-5) that weighs in around 270 pounds on average.

Technically speaking, the Sooners have covered their last 7-of-8 overall. In the Big-12 they have won 4 straight ATS, while going 6-0 ATS vs. >.500 units. Finally, OU has cashed 5 straight covers on the road. TCU is 1-5 ATS in October, 3-11 ATS after allowing 170 or more passing yards in their last game. We have to repeat that Oklahoma has Texas next, but I don’t think OU will be depressed since their shooting for #1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Navy vs. Air Force

Bonus Play Saturday Air Force plus the points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joseph D'Amico

LSU vs. Auburn

Bonus Play Auburn (Game 372)

LSU has their frosh backup QB, Harris starting again here. He played a good game last week vs. New Mexico State but now has to face a stout and athletic Auburn defense that allows just 16.2 PPG, has 7 INT's, and yields a mere 2.7 YPC. Auburn play-caller, Nick Marshall is a stud with a 6/1 TD/INT ratio and 273 YR and 2 more scores on the ground. LSU has problems with savvy QB's as they showed once again in their meltdown vs. Mississippi State, getting lit up by Prescott for 373 yards. UA has a 12-game home win streak and in this series, the home team has won 12 of the L14 meetings. Lest not forget, RB Artis-Payne (468 YR and 5 TD's) to make this Auburn offense the best that LSU has gone up against this year. The Home Team is 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings in this series. LSU is 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games played at Auburn and 1-4 ATS their L5 Conference games. Auburn is 9-1 ATS their L10 games played at home and 9-0 ATS their L9 Conference games. Take Auburn. Thank you.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jesse Schule

LSU vs. Auburn

Free NCAAF play LSU Tigers

Two weeks after being shocked by Mississippi State in a 34-29 loss, the Tigers head out on the road to face last year's SEC champions Auburn. LSU will start freshman QB Brandon Harris this week, and he's been impressive in limited action so far. Harris has completed 73% of his passes and thrown six TDs and just one pick. "Harris has some ad-lib to his game which is very, very positive," Miles said. "He is really fast and can really throw the ball. He can extend a play so really good things can happen."

LSU defeated Auburn by a score 35-21 at Baton Rouge last year, and it's won six of the last seven meetings outright. The lone loss came by a score of 24-17 at Auburn in 2010, and the bookmakers are giving LSU more than a TD to work with here on the road this week.

Auburn's offense has sputtered the last two weeks, sneaking away with a victory in a close game at Kansas State, and failing to cover at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last Saturday. It took a whole lot of luck for Auburn to make it to the SEC Championship Game last year. Along the way there were home wins over Washington State, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama, and all of those games were decided by seven points or less.

There is every reason to expect this to be a close game, and I still think that Auburn is grossly overrated after getting more than it's fair share of luck in 2013.

Take LSU.

GL,

Jesse Schule