Soccer
EPL Best Bets - Week 7
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
The two big derby matches in the Premier League last weekend, Liverpool vs. Everton and Arsenal vs. Spurs, both ended 1-1, meaning comfortable wins for Chelsea and Manchester City strengthened the sense that it will be those two fighting it out for the Premier League crown.
Chelsea were excellent in a 3-0 win over Aston Villa, while Manchester City won 4-2 at Hull, although there was some concern for City as they surrendered an early 2-0 lead to the Tigers. Manchester United got back to winning ways over West Ham despite Wayne Rooney's red card, while there were also wins for Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Bromwich Albion.
Let's handicap Week 7 of the Premier League.
The Banker: Swansea City to beat Newcastle United at 10/11
The pressure on Newcastle boss Alan Pardew is possibly the biggest I've ever seen in English football. Fan protests, banners at games demanding his resignation and a dreadful run of results in 2014 have resulted in a poisonous atmosphere around the club. The stats really are shocking. This calendar year they have won five, drawn four and lost 16. At that rate over a 38-game season, Newcastle would end up with 29 points, which would, in most years, leave you bottom of the table. In that run they have lost 3-0 and 4-0 four times each.
Swansea have had a very good start to the season and their home record has always been good against teams below them. Wilfried Bony is back from suspension, and their solid backline, commanded by Wales captain Ashley Williams, should have few problems against Newcastle's blunt attack. Last year there were a few problems for the Jacks, with Michael Laudrup losing the dressing-room and a Europa League run to deal with. But under their former centre-back Garry Monk the good times are back in South Wales.
The Solid Bet: Manchester City -1.5 at Aston Villa at 13/10
Aston Villa made a great start to the season with three wins and a draw, but have since been brought back down to earth against the big boys, with Chelsea and Arsenal both beating them 3-0. However the warning signs were there throughout that good start. In those four matches Villa had just six shots on target, and their shares of possession were 38%, 40%, 45% and 26%. They will again be missing their inspiration skipper Ron Vlaar against Man City, and this significantly weakens the hosts. City just tear weak defences apart and the win over Hull suggested that they are getting back to their attacking best.
Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero look set to start up front together again, and this was a combination that worked fantastically at the KC Stadium. Over their last 12 matches against Villa, they have won six of them by two goals or more, and 13/10 is value on them to repeat that.
The Outsider: Southampton to win at Tottenham Hotspur at 5/2
The main story of this game is Mauricio Pochettino facing Southampton for the first time since leaving them in the summer. After his departure, the Saints went on to sell five crucial players, but have bounced back commendably under Ronald Koeman. They are second in the table, with 13 points from six games - five points above Pochettino's new charges. Graziano Pelle and Dusan Tadic have proved to be inspired signings from Koeman's old club, Feyenoord. Morgan Schneiderlin, despite openly pushing for a move to Spurs in the summer, has buckled back down on the South Coast and has been inspirational.
Spurs made ten changes for their Europa League tie with Besiktas, and they put in an encouraging performance at Arsenal to draw 1-1. However the Lilywhites have now gone four games without a win in the league, and have lost their last two at home, without scoring. Some of the problems from Andre Villas-Boas's disastrous reign still linger: lots of players of similar ability, too ponderous in possession and the lack of a cutting edge. Spurs will eventually do well under Pochettino, but it will take time, and Southampton can take advantage of Spurs's work in progress.
The First Goalscorer: Diafra Sakho for West Ham United v QPR at 6/1
All the headlines at West Ham over the summer were about the big money signing of Enner Valencia, who impressed for Ecuador in the World Cup. And while he has looked a good purchase, an even better buy may well be Diafra Sakho. Bought for just £3.5 million from French club Metz, Sakho had never played top flight football before this year. However with 39 league goals in his last two seasons in France, this is clearly a man who knows where the goal is.
He has made a flying start in East London with three goals in four starts, and his pace and power will be a huge concern to a slow and tired looking QPR defence. The Hoops have looked pretty poor since coming back up from the Championship, and apart from Charlie Austin, there is little there to get excited about. West Ham have not been as good as they are now for several years, and they look the side most likely to win on Sunday.
