THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 9
NFL PLAYOFFS
N.Y. Jets (9-7 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (10-6, 7-8 ATS)
In the first of three rematches from last weekend’s regular-season finales, the Jets travel to Paul Brown Stadium for a meeting with the Bengals to open wild-card weekend.
New York won its first three games of the season both SU and ATS behind rookie QB Mark Sanchez, then went on a 1-6 SU and ATS slide that appeared to kill any hopes of making the playoffs. But the Jets finished the year on a 5-1 SU and ATS run, including victories in their last two games to clinch the final AFC postseason berth. In Sunday night’s regular-season finale, they hammered a disinterested Bengals squad 37-0 as a 10-point home chalk, earning a wild-card bid for the first time in three years.
Cincinnati’s effort last week stemmed primarily from having already clinched the AFC North. The Bengals went 6-0 (4-2 ATS) in division play, pulling off home and road upsets of the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers and the Ravens – the two teams that met in last year’s AFC title game. Cincy needed all those division wins, as it finished the season on a 1-3 SU and ATS slide, though all three SU losses came on the road against playoff-bound teams: Minnesota, San Diego and last week’s debacle against the Jets.
The Jets are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season, when they got trounced at New England 37-16 in the wild-card round as a 9½-point pup. Meanwhile, the Bengals return to the postseason for the first time since 2005, when Palmer got his knee torn up on the first possession of a 31-17 wild-card loss to Pittsburgh as a three-point home ‘dog.
These teams have met each of the last three regular seasons, with New York going 2-1 SU and ATS and the home team going 3-0 SU and ATS. In October 2007 at Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati held on for a 38-31 win laying six points, and in October 2008, New York won 26-14 giving 9½ points. The Jets are 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight clashes, including 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings.
New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and were slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg. RB Thomas Jones leads the way, having rushed for 1,402 yards (4.2 ypc), which was third in the NFL behind only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson. Jones also had 14 rushing touchdowns. Sanchez had 12 TDs passes offset by 20 INTs (second-most in the league), and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three.
Defensively, the Jets ranked No. 1 in points and yards allowed, at a stifling 14.8 ppg and 252.3 ypg. But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th).
The Bengals’ offense was lackluster at best in averaging 309.1 ypg (24th) and 19.1 ppg (22nd), paced by the running of Cedric Benson, who finished eighth in the league at 1,251 yards (4.2 ypc) despite missing three games. QB Carson Palmer was effective, if not flashy, in the regular season, passing for 3,094 yards with 21 TDs and 13 INTs.
Cincinnati also fields a stout defense, allowing 301.4 ypg (fourth) and 18.2 ppg (sixth), and the Bengals give up just 98.3 rushing ypg (seventh). However, like the Jets, Cincy wasn’t productive in the turnover margin department, finishing dead-even to rate 18th, just behind New York.
New York is on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 5-0 catching three points or less and 8-3 as a road pup. The SU winner has also cashed in all 16 of the Jets’ games this season and the last 18 overall.
Cincy is on a 7-1 ATS tear against winning teams, but also shoulders negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 overall, 7-21-1 laying points (0-7 as a favorite this year) and 3-9-2 as a home chalk of three points or less. In addition, the underdog is 14-2 ATS in the Bengals’ 16 games this year.
New York is on “under” upticks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU win, 3-1-1 as a pup and 3-1-1 against winning teams. Furthermore, the under for Cincinnati is on several sprees, including 4-1 overall, 9-2 with the Bengals favored, 19-7-1 at home and 9-0 when Marvin Lewis’ troops are a home chalk. Conversely, the Jets carry “over” streaks of 4-1 in January, 4-1-1 against AFC opponents and 4-1 as a road pup of three points or less.
Finally, last week’s game – despite no help from Cincinnati – went over the posted price of 33½, and the total has gone high in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS
Philadelphia (11-5, 9-7 ATS) at Dallas (11-5, 9-7 ATS)
In another rematch from last week, the Eagles make a return trip to the Lone Star State to collide with the NFC East rival Cowboys in the wild-card round.
Dallas drubbed Philadelphia 24-0 Sunday as a three-point home chalk, leaping from a wild-card spot to the No. 3 seed and an opening-round home game. After winning eight of their first 11 games (6-5 ATS), the Cowboys went on their seemingly annual December swoon, losing the first two games of that month SU and ATS. But they snapped out of it by going 3-0 SU and ATS to finish the season, starting with a 24-17 road upset of previously unbeaten New Orleans as a seven-point pup, and following with shutouts of both Washington and Philly. It was the first time in the storied franchise history that Dallas posted consecutive shutouts.
Philadelphia was one of the hottest teams in the league prior to last week’s contest at the new Cowboys Stadium, having won six in a row SU (4-2 ATS). That put the Eagles in position to claim the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye with a win at Dallas, but they couldn’t even muster a point and dropped all the way to the sixth seed. Philly netted a meager 228 total yards, while allowing the Pokes to go off for a whopping 474 yards, including 179 on the ground. The Eagles also got killed in time of possession (40:23-19:37).
The Cowboys reached the playoffs after a one-year hiatus, with their last appearance coming after the 2007 regular season. In that divisional-round contest, Dallas suffered a 21-17 upset home loss as a seven-point chalk against the Giants, who went on to win the Super Bowl. Dallas has lost its last six playoff games, going 1-5 ATS in that stretch, with its last postseason win coming after the 1996 season.
The Eagles are in the playoffs for the eighth time under coach Andy Reid, having reached the NFC Championship Game as a wild card last year by beating the Vikings and Giants on the road before losing at Arizona 32-25 as a 3½-point chalk. Additionally, Reid has never lost a playoff opener – be it in the wild-card or divisional round -- in his 11 years with the Eagles, going 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS, including 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on wild-card weekend.
Dallas won and covered in both regular-season meetings with Philadelphia this year, posting a 20-16 road victory as a three-point pup in November to go along with last week’s rout. Those efforts ended Philly’s three-game ATS run (2-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 44-6 beatdown as a 2½-point home chalk in the 2008 regular-season finale, which kept Dallas from making the playoffs and sent the Eagles into the postseason.
Despite last week’s result, the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes between these two, Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS on its last 14 trips to Dallas, and the underdog is on an 8-3 pointspread roll.
The Eagles rank 11th in the league in total offense (357.9 ypg) and are fifth in scoring (26.8 ppg). A big key to Philadelphia’s success is its plus-15 turnover margin, the second-best total in the league behind only Green Bay’s whopping plus-24. QB Donovan McNabb passed for 3,553 yards with 22 TDs against just 10 INTs, with multi-threat WR DeSean Jackson leading the way at 1,167 receiving yards. Jackson led the Eagles with 12 TDs – nine receiving, one rushing and two on punt returns.
On defense, Philadelphia are 12th in yards allowed (321.1 ypg ) and 19th in points allowed (21.1 ppg), rating ninth against the run (104.7 ypg) despite letting the Cowboys run wild last week. CB Asante Samuel tied for the league lead with nine INTs in helping the Eagles post their lofty turnover margin.
The Cowboys have the league’s second-best total offense, racking up 399.4 ypg, behind only the high-octane Saints (403.8 ypg), but that has translated into just 22.6 ppg (14th). QB Tony Romo led a passing attack that netted 267.9 ypg (sixth), and Dallas was seventh in rushing (131.5 ypg), paced by Marion Barber (932 yards, 7 TDs, 4.4 ypc). Romo passed for 4,483 yards (third) with 26 TDs and just nine INTs.
Thanks to ending the season with consecutive shutouts, Dallas ranked second to the Jets in scoring defense (15.6 ppg) and was ninth in total defense (315.9 ypg). The Cowboys were fifth against the rush (90.5 ypg), and DeMarcus Ware piled up a team-best 11 sacks.
The Pokes are in ATS ruts of 1-4 as a playoff chalk, 3-9 in January and 5-11 against NFC East foes, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 6-2 after a SU win, 5-2 at home (all as a chalk) and 12-5 in conference action.
Philly is on a handful of ATS tears, including 13-5 as a pup, 5-0 as a playoff ‘dog, 6-2 in the postseason, 17-8 on the highway, 5-1 in postseason roadies, 7-0 catching 3½ to 10 points and 6-2 on Saturday.
The under for Dallas is on streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 4-0 in January, 6-1 in the NFC, 5-1 after a SU win, 4-1 in the postseason and 4-1 inside the division. Philadelphia sports “under” runs of 4-1 on wild-card weekend and 7-2-1 in the playoffs, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in Dallas, with last week falling far short of the 47½-point price. The under also cashed in the first Cowboys-Eagles clash in Philadelphia in November.
That said, the Eagles are on “over” surges of 6-1 after a SU loss, 20-6 as a pup, 11-5 as a road ‘dog and 29-14-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(13) UConn (11-3, 4-7-1 ATS) at (12) Georgetown (11-2, 5-4 ATS)
The Huskies hit the road for just the second time this season when they visit the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C., for a Big East tussle with Georgetown.
UConn is coming off consecutive conference home wins and covers over Notre Dame (82-70 as a seven-point chalk last Saturday) and Seton Hall (71-63 as a 6½-point favorite on Wednesday). The Huskies are 7-2 in their last nine games (3-3-1 ATS in lined action), and the losses were by a total of five points at Big East foe Cincinnati (71-69 as two-point road underdog) and No. 4 Kentucky (64-61 as a one-point neutral-site favorite). Jim Calhoun’s squad is 0-2 SU and ATS against Top 25 teams, falling to Kentucky and then-No. 7 Duke (68-59), both at Madison Square Garden.
The Hoyas’ three-game winning streak was halted in Wednesday’s 62-59 loss at Marquette as a 1½-point road underdog. Georgetown stumbled despite outshooting the Warriors 48.9 percent to 38.9 percent, but Marquette hit 12 of 26 three-point shots. The Hoyas have scored 57 and 59 points in their two losses while producing at least 66 points in nine of their 11 victories. John Thompson’s squad sports one of the top defenses in the nation, yielding just 57.8 ppg in Division I contests.
The Hoyas swept last year’s season series against the Huskies (1-1 ATS) and have won the last three in a row following an 11-0 SU run by UConn. Georgetown is also 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head clashes, but the Huskies are 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to Washington D.C., and the ‘dog has cashed in four of the last five.
UConn is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games, all against winning teams, and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight after a spread-cover. Conversely, the Hoyas sport nothing but negative pointspread trends, including 9-19-1 overall, 2-9 at home, 7-19 in conference play, 4-10 after a SU loss and 8-20-1 on Saturday.
The under is on steaks of 7-2 for the Huskies on the road, 5-1 for Georgetown overall, 6-1 for Georgetown in Big East contests, 4-0 for Georgetown on Saturday and 35-17-1 for Georgetown after a SU defeat. However, the total has alternated in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, with the final contest last year staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN and UNDER
(4) Purdue (14-0, 7-6-1 ATS) at (17) at Wisconsin (12-3, 8-5 ATS)
The unbeaten Boilermakers face their toughest road test of the season when they visit the Kohl Center for a Big Ten battle with 17th-ranked Wisconsin.
Purdue dominated Minnesota 79-60 as an 8½-point home favorite on Tuesday, improving to 2-0 (1-1 ATS) in Big Ten play. The Boilermakers, one of just four undefeated teams remaining in Division I, have won 12 games by double digits, including the last five in a row during which they’ve averaged 76.4 ppg and given up just 58 ppg.
The Badgers saw their six-game winning streak end Wednesday when they went to Michigan State and lost 54-47 to the 10th-ranked Spartans, coming up a whisker short of covering as a six-point road underdog. Despite the defeat, Wisconsin held its sixth straight opponent to 58 points or less, and Bo Ryan’s club is yielding just 47.7 ppg during this stretch. The Badgers are a perfect 9-0 at home this year – including a 73-69 victory over No. 6 and unbeaten Duke as a 4½-point underdog – and they’re yielding just 50 ppg at the Kohl Center. Also, prior to falling at Michigan State, Wisconsin had been 3-0 SU and ATS against ranked teams.
Purdue has swept the two-game season series from the Badgers each of the last two years, cashing in all four games. In fact, the Boilermakers are on a 7-0 ATS run in this rivalry, including 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Madison. Last year, Purdue prevailed 65-52 as a six-point home favorite and 64-63 as a one-point road ‘dog. The pup has covered in six of the last seven clashes.
The Boilermakers have cashed in back-to-back games and are on additional ATS runs of 5-2 on Saturday and 6-0-1 against winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last 10 on the highway and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 after a spread-cover. Wisconsin is on pointspread rolls of 5-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 after a defeat and 5-1 after a non-cover, but it is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five Saturday outings.
The Badgers are on “under” streaks of 6-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 in Big Ten play and 14-5 on Saturday, and five of the last seven meetings in this series have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE and UNDER
(5) Duke (13-1, 9-4 ATS) at (20) Georgia Tech (11-3, 6-3 ATS)
Duke takes a seven-game winning streak into Alexander Memorial Coliseum as it meets up with ACC rival Georgia Tech, which is coming off a surprising loss to rival Georgia.
The Blue Devils trounced Iowa State 86-65 as a 12½-point favorite on a neutral court in Chicago on Wednesday. Since getting upset at Wisconsin on Dec. 2 – its only true road game to this point – Duke has peeled off seven wins by an average of a whopping 30.1 ppg, the last six being by margins of 21, 21, 49, 21, 25 and 45 points. The Blue Devils have scored at least 74 points throughout their win streak and have topped 70 points in 11 of 14 games while holding the opposition under 60 points seven times.
The Yellow Jackets opened the ACC season with a 66-59 overtime loss to Florida State as a 5½-point home favorite on Dec. 20, then ripped off three straight non-conference wins (1-0 ATS in lined games). But on Tuesday, they made the short trip north to Athens to face Georgia and stumbled 73-66 as a five-point road chalk). Georgia Tech is 7-1 SU at home, outscoring lined opponents by 19.5 ppg (77.5-58).
Duke has won five in a row and nine of the last 10 in this rivalry (7-3 ATS). In last year’s lone meeting, the Blue Devils went to Atlanta and cruised 70-56 as 12-point road favorite. Going back to the 1998-99 season, Duke is 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS against Georgia Tech, including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 visits to Alexander Memorial Coliseum
Also in this series, the chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes and 8-2 ATS in the last 10, while the host has covered in six of the last nine.
The Blue Devils are on ATS tears of 5-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-1 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points, but they’re just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday outings. Georgia Tech is on pointspread surges of 10-3 overall, 9-4 on Saturday, 4-1 against ACC foes and 8-3 against winning teams.
These teams have stayed under the total in nine straight meetings, including four in a row in Atlanta. The under is also 19-7 in Duke’s last 26 ACC contests, 6-0 in its last six against winning teams and 10-1 in Georgia Tech’s last 11 versus winning opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE and UNDER
(11) Kansas State (13-1, 7-2 ATS) at Missouri (12-3, 5-4 ATS)
Kansas State visits an opponent’s gym for just the second time this season as it opens Big 12 play with a trip to Columbia, Mo., to take on the Tigers, who have won seven straight overall and 30 in a row at Mizzou Arena.
The Wildcats pounded South Dakota State 91-69 in a non-lined home game on Sunday, their 10th consecutive victory. Kansas State’s only blemish is an 86-74 loss to Ole Miss in a preseason tournament in Puerto Rico on Nov. 20, failing as a 1½-point favorite. In their only true road game this year, the Wildcats went to Las Vegas and destroyed UNLV 95-80 as a 2½-point underdog, part of an ongoing 6-0 ATS run in lined contests. Last year, Kansas State split its eight conference road games (2-5-1 ATS).
Missouri followed up last Saturday’s 89-61 rout of Georgia as a 16-point home favorite with Wednesday’s 74-45 destruction of Division II Savannah State in a non-lined game. Prior to Wednesday, the Tigers had scored more than 80 points in six straight games, and they’re averaging 86.3 ppg during their seven-game win streak.
Missouri’s last home loss was a 75-73 setback to Oklahoma State in February 2008. Since then, the Tigers are 30-0 in their arena, including 9-0 in Big 12 action (6-3 ATS). This year, Missouri is 11-0 at home, averaging 90.2 ppg against lined competition (50.4 percent shooting) and allowing 59.4 ppg (36.7 percent).
The host is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, with the winner averaging 87.9 ppg. Last year, Kansas State prevailed 88-72 as a three-point home pup, then went to Columbia and got whacked 94-74 as a 10-point underdog. Going back further, the home team is on a 8-2 SU and ATS roll between these teams, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 matchups.
Both teams have identical offensive numbers against Division I foes, averaging 83.5 ppg while making 47.5 percent of their shots.
While K-State has cashed in six straight games overall and is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 on Saturday, it is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road contests and 6-18-2 ATS in its last 26 conference games. The Tigers are on positive pointspread surges of 18-8 overall, 19-7 at home, 4-1 in Big 12 play, 9-3 after a SU win and 7-0 when coming off a blowout victory of more than 20 points.
There’s nothing but “over” trends for these high-scoring teams, with the Wildcats on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-0 on Saturday and 7-0 against winning teams, while Mizzou is on “over” streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 8-0 versus opponents with a winning record. Finally, the last eight meetings overall – including the last four in Columbia – have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI and OVER
Ohio State (11-4, 7-8 ATS) at Minnesota (11-4, 8-6 ATS)
The Golden Gophers look to extend the home team’s dominance in this Big Ten rivalry when they welcome Ohio State to Williams Arena.
After opening the conference season with a pair of road losses that knocked them out of the Top 25, the Buckeyes got back on track Wednesday with 79-54 rout of Indiana as a 14-point home favorite. Ohio State ended an 0-6 ATS drought with that spread-cover, but it is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this year (74-66 loss at No. 22 Butler; 65-43 loss at No. 23 Wisconsin; 73-64 loss at Michigan).
Minnesota returns home after a two-game conference road swing that began with an 86-74 rout of Iowa as a 10-point favorite and ended with Tuesday’s 79-60 loss at fourth-ranked Purdue as an 8½-point underdog. Tuesday’s setback snapped Minnesota’s seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Gophers are 9-0 at home, going 6-2 ATS in lined games while outscoring those eight opponents by nearly 30 points per game (87-57.3) and outshooting them 52 percent to 35.2 percent. Going back to last year, Tubby Smith’s squad is 13-1 at Williams Arena (9-4 ATS).
The host has taken four straight meetings in this rivalry both SU and ATS. Last year, Ohio State went to Minnesota and fell 68-59 as a 3½-point underdog, but got revenge with a 65-58 win as a 4½-point home chalk. The Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, and the SU winner covered in nine of those 10 contests. Also, the favorite has gotten the money in each of the last six battles.
Ohio State has failed to cover in six of its last seven overall and four straight after an outright victory, but it is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 Saturday contests. Minnesota is on pointspread upticks of 6-2 overall and 5-1 at home, but it is also in ATS ruts of 5-13 in conference games, 1-5 against winning teams and 5-11 ATS after a SU defeat.
The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these schools (4-1 “under” at Minnesota), with the last three in a row staying low. Also, the Buckeyes are on “under” rolls of 5-1 overall, 11-5 on the road, 7-2 in Big Ten games, 35-15-1 on Saturday and 7-1 against winning teams. Conversely, the Gophers are riding “over” streaks of 6-2 overall and 6-1 at home, but 38 of their last 56 Saturday outings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
UNLV (12-3, 9-4 ATS) at (15) New Mexico (14-2, 10-4-1 ATS)
Two teams that opened the Mountain West Conference season with road losses meet up at The Pit in Albuquerque, where New Mexico will try to extend a 17-game home winning streak with a victory over the Runnin’ Rebels.
UNLV, playing its first game since a 19-point Christmas Day loss to USC in Honolulu, went to Provo, Utah, on Wednesday and gave 25th-ranked BYU all it could handle but eventually succumbed 77-73. The Rebels did easily cover as a 7½-point road underdog, improving to 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Prior to Wednesday, UNLV had won its first four road games, and it is now 4-1 ATS as a visitor this year.
The Lobos took their No. 15 ranking to San Diego State on Tuesday and lost 74-64 as a four-point road underdog. After starting the season 12-0, New Mexico has split its last four games (1-2 ATS), but both defeats came on the road. As part of its 17-game home winning streak, New Mexico is 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS this year while outscoring visitors by more than 17 ppg (79.3-62).
The Runnin’ Rebels were the last team to give New Mexico a real scare at The Pit, taking the Lobos to overtime last February before falling 73-69 while eking out the cover as a five-point underdog. A month earlier, the Rebels won 60-58 at home as a five-point chalk. The host has won eight of the last nine meetings, but is just 5-4 ATS. Finally, New Mexico has cashed in seven of the last 10 against UNLV, but the ‘dog is on a 5-2 ATS roll.
UNLV ended a six-game Mountain West ATS losing skid with the spread-cover at BYU, while New Mexico dropped to 1-5 ATS in its last six league games with the loss at San Diego State. From there, though, the Lobos carry positive pointspread trends of 12-4-1 overall, 35-16-1 at home, 3-1-1 on Saturday, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-0 after a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in the last seven Rebels-Lobos matchups and 6-2 in UNLV’s last eight Saturday games. However UNLV has stayed low in seven of its last 10 on the road and New Mexico is 4-1 “under” in its last five on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO and OVER
(8) West Virginia (12-1, 5-7 ATS) at Notre Dame (13-3, 5-4-1 ATS)
West Virginia, which is off to a 3-0 start in conference play, heads to the Joyce Center in South Bend, Ind., for a nighttime Big East showdown against the Irish.
The Mountaineers rebounded from their first loss of the season – a 77-62 setback at fourth-ranked Purdue on New Year’s Day – with Wednesday’s 86-52 drubbing of Rutgers, easily covering as a hefty 19½-point home chalk after a 1-4 ATS downturn. West Virginia had won its first two Big East games by a total of seven points (63-62 versus Marquette at home; 90-84 overtime win at Seton Hall)
Notre Dame bounced back from last Saturday’s 82-70 loss at UConn by edging South Florida 74-73 on Tuesday, pushing as a one-point road favorite. The Irish have scored at least 70 points in nine straight games, topping 80 points seven times and 90 points four times. Notre Dame has won 11 of its first 12 home games this year (4-2 ATS in lined action), averaging 88.3 ppg (52.5 percent shooting) and yielding 71 ppg (44.4 percent).
West Virginia took down Notre Dame twice last year, wining 79-68 as a 9½-point home favorite, then rolling 74-62 as a six-point chalk in the Big East tournament. Prior to that, the Irish had won 13 of 14 in this rivalry (8-6 ATS). The home team has prevailed in each of the last four regular-season tussles (2-2 ATS), and the favorite has covered in the last three after the ‘dog got the money in the previous four.
West Virginia is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a victory of more than 20 points and 2-5 after a spread-cover, while the Irish carry pointspread trends of 6-13-1 in Big East play, 4-10 on Saturday and 8-18 after a SU victory.
Notre Dame has topped the total in seven straight lined games overall, all five home contests this season and six of eight on Saturday, while the Mountaineers have gone over the number in five straight roadies. However, the under has hit nine straight times in this rivalry, going 3-0 in the last three in South Bend, and the under is 11-5 in West Virginia’s last 16 league contests, 10-1 in its last 11 against winning teams and 10-1 in Notre Dame’s last 11 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(22) Texas Tech (12-2, 6-2 ATS) at Oklahoma State (12-2, 5-2-1 ATS)
Two teams that enjoyed a lot of success in the non-conference season finally tip off Big 12 play at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., where the Cowboys host 22nd-ranked Texas Tech.
After barely squeaking past McNeese State 76-75 in a non-lined home game on New Year’s Day, the Red Raiders came back and dominated UTEP on Sunday, winning 86-78 as a one-point home favorite. Texas Tech, which averages 80.4 ppg (46.6 percent), has tallied 74 points or more in 11 of its 14 games this year, including the last eight in a row. On the downside, Tech’s last two losses both came on the road (90-75 at New Mexico as an eight-point underdog and 85-83 at Wichita State as a six-point pup).
Oklahoma State rebounded from last Saturday’s 63-59 loss at Rhode Island as a two-point underdog with a 79-61 thrashing of Coppin State in Tuesday’s non-lined home contest. The Cowboys are 6-1 in their last seven games (3-1 ATS in lined play), and like Texas Tech they’ve been filling the bucket, scoring 77 points or more eight times and at least 65 points in all but two games. Oklahoma State has won 13 straight home games, going 8-0 this season, but only two were against Division I opponents (1-0-1 ATS).
The Cowboys’ current home winning streak began with an 81-80 win over Texas Tech last February, but they came up way short as a 12½-point underdog. Oklahoma State followed that two weeks later with a 92-82 win in Lubbock as a 1½-point road favorite, and they’ve now beaten the Red Raiders three straight times (2-1 ATS). Prior to the Cowboys’ win in Lubbock last year, the home team had won seven straight regular-season meetings (4-3 ATS). However, Texas Tech is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Stillwater, and the favorite has cashed in four of the last five series clashes.
The Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on the road. Meanwhile, going back to Valentine’s Day of last year, Oklahoma State is on a 16-3-1 ATS roll in lined action (5-0-1 at home). The Cowboys are on further moneymaking surges of 21-7-2 at home, 13-3-1 after a SU win and 5-1-1 on Saturday, and they covered in nine of their final 10 conference games last year, including four straight at Gallagher-Iba Arena.
Texas Tech carries “over” trends of 33-16-2 overall, 20-6 on the highway, 20-8-1 in Big 12 play, 6-2-1 on Saturday and 16-5 after a SU win. On the flip side, OSU is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-1 on Saturday, 6-2 in league action and 4-1 versus winning teams. Also, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these squads.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE
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