sorry,some plays already posted
Anthony Redd Saturday's Card 25 Dime Colts
25 Dime Saints
25 Dime Cowboys
Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
75 DIME ---- PHILLIES (With Lee) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over BRAVES (With Lowe)
10 DIME ---- RAVENS MONEYLINE
PHILLIES (with Lee) -1 1/2 runs over BRAVES (with Lowe) --- Look, I'm going to get right to the point. This selection is 100% about Cliff Lee. Not only what he's done since coming to Philly (5-0, 0.68 ERA), but what he's been doing since early July when he was still with Cleveland. There are so many things that impress me about Lee, but I think the biggest thing that has caught my eye was the fact that this guy was coming off a career year, everyone predicted he'd come back to earth, he starts the season and looks atrocious, but didn't let it get to him and now has become one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. Lee hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in a game since July 26th and he's only done that once since the first week in July. Five times since July 16th he's allowed only one earned run and he hasn't surrendered a single earned run in his last two starts (16 IP).
Lee has been so good since early July that he's won 8 consecutive starts, and seven of those weren't really even close. When you can throw a guy like Lee out there and know he's going to limit the opponent to two runs or less, you realize that all you have to do is scratch a few runs across yourself to get the team another win. Think about where the pressure goes... to the opponent. The Philly bats have given Lee plenty of run support since he's come over from the American League, scoring 6, 8, 6, 3, and 5 runs in his five Philly starts, and you'll also like to know that none of those games was a one-run win. Each Lee start with Philly has resulted in a win of two runs or more which is exactly what we need tonight. Lee also gives the bullpen a rest and puts my mind at ease (don't want to see Lidge), going nine full innings two times in five starts with Philadelphia and four times since mid-July. When you can get a guy to go that long on a consistent basis and pitch as well as Lee has pitched, it gives the rest of the team an unbelieveable confidence. Lee has seen the Braves just once in his career, tossing seven innings of 6-hit ball, allowing just two earned runs and striking out 7 and walking none. Needless to say, he won and I expect the same today.
The Braves will send out Derek Lowe (12-8, 4.48 ERA), and although he has had some success vs. the Phillies in his career, you can't help but notice his numbers of late... 1-1, 7.47 ERA over his last three starts. Granted, one really bad outing vs. the Mets inflated that ERA a little, but color me unimpressed with his pitching mechanics lately, not to mention the fact he's been lucky to get past the 6th inning. The Braves have dropped 6 of their last 8 road games when Lowe starts on the bump, and just 1-4 in his last 5 road starts when the total is below 8.5. Philly, on the other hand, is 5-0 in Lee's five starts as a Philly and 11-2 in their last 13 during Game 2 of a series. The writing is on the wall, and after scoring just four runs last night I expect the Phils to bring out the whoopin' sticks at home this evening. Philly wins by at least 4 tonight.
BALTIMORE RAVENS MONEYLINE --- The Panthers may very well win the NFC South again this year, but right now this team is in shambles and I doubt they score more than 14 points vs. the Ravens defense tonight. The Panthers have some injury concerns on the offensive line, Jonathan Stewart won't play because of an Achilles injury, DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith are both questionable and will likely be game-time decisions. Meanwhile, the defense hasn't been as good as expected through two games, allowing 24 and 27 points, respectively. Now they're going to be asked to play their best game of the pre-season because it's quite possible the offense is held out of the end zone... at least in the first half. Baltimore has won both of their pre-season games, including an opening week shutout of Washington, 23-0, followed by a decimation of the NY Jets last week. Granted, the scoreboard might show just a one-point win, but anyone who saw the game knows the Ravens dominated the first three quarters. A 21-7 lead ended as a 24-23 win, but the writing was on the wall. With the starters from both teams expected to play till at least halftime, I believe the Ravens are healthier and their first unit is more talented on both sides of the ball. Ravens win the game straight up.
Dominic Fazzini Saturday's plays 10 Dime -- Rangers (Feldman) over TWINS (Pavano)
5 Dime -- Titans (plus the points vs. BROWNS)
RANGERS
NOTE: List only Feldman as Texas' starting pitcher
Scott Feldman (13-4, 3.87 ERA) has really stepped up in the heat of the playoff race for the Rangers.
The right-hander allowed four hits with a career-high 11 strikeouts Sunday in seven scoreless innings against Tampa Bay. He also has been solid on the road, with wins in five straight starts away from Arlington.
Feldman has a 1.87 ERA in those five outings, and is 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He is 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in five starts overall this month.
Carl Pavano (11-9, 5.20) has been up and down since the Twins acquired him from Cleveland on Aug. 7. He allowed two runs and eight hits in seven innings Sunday at Kansas City, which makes me think he's due for a poor outing today.
The right-hander was ripped at Texas on Aug. 18, giving up five runs on seven hits and three walks in four innings of a no-decision. Pavano is 0-1 with a 25.20 ERA in two career starts vs. the Rangers, allowing 14 runs in five innings.
Texas has lost 10 of 14 games at the Metrodome since 2007, but I think Feldman gives the team a great chance to buck that trend tonight. Go with the Rangers.
TITANS
Tennessee, with three exhibition games already under its belt, has things pretty well figured out for the regular season at this point. Cleveland, however, has plenty of question marks remaining, including who its starting quarterback is going to be.
Titans QB Kerry Collins and the first-team offense is expected to play into the third quarter tonight. With LenDale White and Chris Johnson tearing up yardage on the ground, Tennessee should take command of this game in the first half.
The Browns scored 27 points last week against Detroit, but neither Derek Anderson nor Brady Quinn threw a touchdown pass, and one of Cleveland's TDs came on an 84-yard punt return by Josh Cribbs. Tennessee's defense is pretty tough, so I can't imagine the Browns putting up many points tonight.
If the game is close going into the final quarter, I give the edge to the Titans, who have Vince Young and Patrick Ramsey relieving Collins at QB. Meanwhile, the inexperienced Brett Ratliff or Richard Bartel will finish up for the Browns.
Before last week's win, Cleveland was 0-5 straight-up and against the spread, including 0-3 SU and ATS at home. Tennessee, while it has failed to cover in three straight exhibition games, is 8-3 SU in its last 11 preseason contests. Take the Titans to cover the points, if not win outright, in this one.
Jeff Benton Saturday's NFL winners ... 20 DIME: CHARGERS (plus the points vs. Cardinals) ... NOTE: Do whatever it takes to grab +3 with San Diego in this game. At the very least, if you can only find 2 1/2, buy the half point and take 3 if at all possible. Do NOT get beat buy the hook in this contest!
5 DIME: Jets-Giants UNDER the total
5 DIME: SEAHAWKS (plus the points vs. Chiefs) ... NOTE: Do whatever it takes to grab +3 with Seattle in this game. At the very least, if you can only find 2 1/2, buy the half point take 3 if at all possible. Do NOT get beat by the hook in this contest!
Chargers
Although San Diego is coming off a 17-6 victory at Arizona, the Chargers didn’t exactly look all that good. The first-string offense produced just one touchdown in a half of action, and QB Philip Rivers was planted on his backside four times. All in all, the performance – particular that of the offensive line – could not have pleased Norv Turner and the rest of the coaches. That’s why I fully expect San Diego’s starters to get an extensive look in Atlanta tonight, just as they normally do in Week 3 of the preseason.
More than that, though, I expect the Chargers, who have played things very close to the vest to this point in terms of play-calling on both sides of the ball, to do some actual game-planning and run some of the stuff that they’re going to run in the regular season. As it is, Turner has said his starters, including Rivers, should be prepared to play three full quarters. I doubt that will end up being the case, but if they play for into the latter stages of the third, I really like our chances.
After all, Atlanta coach Mike Smith committed his starters only for one half tonight, saying that “maybe” they’ll start the third quarter. If Smith is true to his word, then there’s the potential for the Chargers’ first-string units to get nearly a full quarter against the Falcons’ backups. As it is, you have to think Smith won’t expose QB Matt Ryan very long, simply because Ryan has looked fantastic through two preseason games, completing 80 percent of his throws with one TD and no INTs. Of course, Ryan did that against two pretty weak defenses (St. Louis and Detroit); tonight, he’ll be facing a physical, attacking defense that’s vastly superior to what Ryan saw the last two weeks.
By the same token, the Falcons’ defense is in for a rude awakening tonight. After facing QBs named Matthew Stafford, Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton, Kyle Boller, Brock Berlin and Keith Null, Atlanta will face a much tougher stable of passers in this one. It starts with Rivers, who was the NFL’s top-rated passer in 2008. And once Rivers leaves, longtime veteran backup Billy Volek will take over, and all Volek has done in two games against scrub defenses is complete 73.7 percent of his passes, average 9.9 yards per pass attempt and post a passer rating of 122.3! Even San Diego’s third-string QB (Charlie Whitehurst) has been with the team for four years.
What about the Falcons’ backup QBs behind Ryan? Well, there’s veterans D.J. Shockley and Chris Redman and rookie John Parker Wilson, who have passed for a total of 178 yards with no TDs and two INTs.
Finally, with last week’s win in Arizona, the Chargers are now on a 4-1 SU and ATS run on the road in preseason play. They’ve also won both of their Week 3 exhibition contests since Turner took over as coach. Throw in the fact we’re getting some points here – and underdogs have been killing it so far in Week 3 – and I’ll back San Diego with complete confidence.
Jets-Giants UNDER the total
Let’s start with the fact a nasty storm, one with a ton of wind, hit the Meadowlands yesterday, and it’s a storm that’s expected to linger throughout this game. So far this preseason, there have been two games played in rainy weather, both in Florida. In Week 1, the Dolphins hosted the Jaguars and won 12-9. Then on Thursday, Miami went to Tampa Bay and sloshed its way to a 10-6 victory. Obviously, both games stayed WAY under the total.
It’s easy to see why wet weather leads to low-scoring games, particularly in the preseason: The last thing a coach wants is to see a star player slip and pull a muscle or tear a hamstring and end up being sidelined for a long period of time. So you can be sure that with a wet field tonight, both Tom Coughlin and Rex Ryan will be very conservative with their play-calling, and don’t be surprised if both yank their starters earlier than they’d want to.
So now that we’ve established that we’ve got a weather advantage in this contest, let’s look at the main reason I love this play so much: These rivals meet every single summer, almost always in Week 3, and over the last eight preseasons – going back to Aug. 25, 2001 – the Jets-Giants exhibition battle has stayed under the total … eight straight times! That’s not a misprint: The under is on an 8-0 run in this preseason rivalry. Here are the final scores in those eight contests, beginning with the 2001 clash: 17-14, 28-7, 15-14, 17-10, 15-14, 13-7, 20-12, 10-7. Not one of those games hit tonight’s posted total, which sits at around 36.
Not only have the last eight meetings between these teams gone under, but the Giants have played to the under in nine of their last 14 preseason contests overall, including a 17-3 dud in Chicago last week. Guys, if the weather forest holds, we’re going to see a lot of straight-ahead running by both offenses and very little passing. As a result we seriously could be looking at a game in which the first one to 14 wins – if that! Play this one UNDER the total.
Seahawks
Think that 8-0 “under” trend in the Giants-Jets preseason series is impressive? It’s nothing compared to this: By winning their first two games of the preseason in pretty convincing fashion – 20-14 at the Chargers in Week 1 and 27-13 over Denver at home in Week 2 – the Seattle Seahawks have now covered the pointspread in eight consecutive preseason games. With the upset win in San Diego, Seattle has also won eight of its last 11 preseason road contests, going 9-2 ATS, and it is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 when catching points in August.
That’s not all. The Seahawks have been a strong bet-on team in the all-important Week 3 dress rehearsal, going 5-1 SU and ATS the last six summers.
On the flip side of the coin are the Chiefs. Going back to 2004, they’ve lost 17 of their last 22 preseason games, going 4-18 ATS – that’s right: 4-18 versus the number. Kansas City has failed to cover in five straight preseason home games (losing four of them outright), and it was favored in each of those contests at Arrowhead Stadium. And when it comes to Week 3 with the Chiefs, I’ve got one word for you: UGLY! While the Seahawks have won and covered five of their last six in Week 3, Kansas City has gone 1-5 SU and ATS in Week 3 preseason action. Two summers ago, the Chiefs hosted the Saints in Week 3 and lost 30-7. Last year, they went to Miami and got walloped 24-0. I’ll do the math for you – that’s two defeats by a combined 54-7 score.
Now, maybe I’d be reluctant to make this play if Seattle looked sluggish in the first two weeks of this preseason and/or if Kansas City was clearly making strides in new coach Todd Haley’s offensive system. But, uh, neither has been the case. The Seahawks have scored 47 points in their two wins (with top QBs Matt Hasselbeck and Seneca Wallace combining to complete more than 65 percent of their passes with four TDs and no INTs). On the other hand, the Chiefs have managed just 23 points in losses to the Texans and Vikings, and new QB Matt Cassel has been mediocre at best. In fact, word out of Kansas City is that backup QB Brodie Croyle has had the best training camp of the four Chiefs passers on the roster, but guess what? Croyle almost certainly will sit this game out, as Cassel is slated to be replaced by Matt Gutierrez and Tyler Thigpen.
Simply put, I like what the Seahawks have done since the end of last season, and with Hasselbeck looking like he’s back to 100 percent healthy, I think Seattle is a big-time sleeper team this season. On the other hand, this is going to be a loooong rebuilding year for the Chiefs (1-13 in their last 14 games, including the 0-2 start to this preseason). Throw in the fact that two of the Seahawks’ recent Week 3 preseason wins have come at the expense of the Chiefs (by a combined score of 17 points), and I’m all over Seattle plus the points in this one.
Scott Delaney Saturday ... 5-Dime Marlins -1' Runs - Analysis due back by 1 p.m. eastern
5-Dime Tennessee Titans -
5-Dime San Francisco 49ers -
Tony Weston SATURDAY'S PLAYS 30 Dime Saints
10 Dime Cowboys
Saints at Raiders
SAINTS - So far in the preseason no team has looked as good as the New Orleans Saints. After beating up on Cincinnati in the preseason opener, winning 17-7 as a 3-point favorite, the Saints destroyed the Texans in Houston 38-14 as a 3-point underdog.
Today, the Saints are on the road once again where they’re laying 2 1/2 points at the Raiders and will cruise to an easy victory.
New Orleans comes into this game having gone a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in road games in August and is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in preseason Week 3 games. Over the last two seasons the Saints have outscored their opponents in Week 3 by a combined 43-7.
Now they battle a Raiders team that has won and covered in only 2 of their last 6 Week 3 preseason games. Oakland is also just 2-4 ATS its last 6 preseason games when installed as an underdog.
Things won’t get any better today as the Saints cruise to an easy win in Oakland.
49ers at Cowboys
COWBOYS - You want to talk about dominance? Then you want to talk about the Dallas Cowboys playing at home in the preseason.
Over their last 12 home preseason games since 2003, the Cowboys are 11-0-1 SU and 9-3 ATS. Under current coach Wade Phillips, Dallas has gone a perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS.
Tonight, they’ll cash in once again against the visiting San Francisco 49ers.
Dallas enters the game laying about 7 points, depending on where you’re playing this, but it won’t matter.
San Francisco comes into this game having failed to cover in each of its last three preseason games and is a horrible 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS its last 11 preseason games on the road.
This will be the Niners’ first roadie of this preseason and despite being 2-0 SU the team is 0-2 ATS.
Dallas is coming off an impressive 30-10 victory last week at home against the Titans as a 3 1/2 point favorite and will dominate once again tonight. Lay the points and take the Cowboys at home.
Trace Adams 1000* - Texas w/Feldman over Pavano, 500* - LA Dodgers RUN LINE (Haeger vs. Maloney), 500* - Atlanta Brutal loss for the Rangers last night, as Both the Angels, and the Red Sox notched wins.
I expect Texas to bounce-back with the "W" tonight, as they are 7-2 their last 9 games following a loss, and starter Scott Feldman has been dealing nasty of late, and he is a blistering 9-1 on the road this season with an ERA of 2.97!
Carl Pavano will counter, and while he has had a successful comeback season, the fact remains his season ERA is still over 5 for the year.
The Texas bats were quiet last night, tonight they wake up and get a much-needed win to cool down the surging Twinks.
1000♦ - Texas w/Feldman over Pavano
♦♦♦NOTE: Both listed starters must start, or no action on the play!♦♦♦
The Reds took down the Dodgers last night, but today knuckleballer Charlie Haeger will baffle the Cincy bats, and LA will cruise to an easy win.
Haeger has worked 14 innings for the Dodgers in the starting rotation, and is 1-0 with 3 earned runs allowed.
I can see him tossing 6 or 7 shutout frames today, and the LA bats exposing Matt Maloney who is making his 1st start since the middle of June. His last call-up to the big club did not go so well, as Maloney went 0-2 over 3 starts with an over 6 ERA.
Even with the Dodgers loss last night, they are still 23-6 their last 29 games played against the Red-Legs.
I am taking the Dodgers on the RUN LINE in this one!
500♦ - LA Dodgers RUN LINE PLAY (Haeger vs. Maloney) - 4:10 pm
♦♦♦NOTE: Both listed starters must start, or no action on the play!♦♦♦
Preseason NFL for Saturday night, and this one is all about the scheduling!
You cannot tell me the Chargers who have played at home, and have played close to home at Arizona last week, and will be at home next Friday night for a date with the 49ers want any part of being on the field this Saturday night in Atlanta!!!
As for the Falcons, they have played at Detroit, and at St. Louis, a pair of teams with new head coaches looking to make statements. Now Atlanta comes back home for their home opener this evening, and will also close at home against Baltimore.
I have a feeling the Falcons will be ready to soar in this spot in front of a fan base that is sure to be excited for this upcoming season after the promise new coach Mike Smith, and the team showed last regular season.
It also helps that Atlanta is on a 3-1 spread run the last 2 preseason's at home.
Take the Falcons.
500♦ - Atlanta Falcons
