Jeff Benton
I came up short on the Pirates with Friday’s baseball freebie. For Saturday, it’s back to the NFL, and I’ll lay the big points with the Cowboys at home against the 49ers.
Dallas’ first-string offense has looked very, very good through the first two preseason games, and that includes the 31-10 Week 1 loss at Oakland (Tony Romo and Co. played just two series in that one, but scored the team’s only TD). Then last week, Romo went 18-for-24 for 192 of his team’s 355 passing yards in a 30-10 rout of Tennessee.
That victory over the Titans in their brand new stadium continued an incredible preseason trend for the Cowboys. Not only have they won all five preseason home games since coach Wade Phillips took over (covering in four of those games), but you have to go back to 2002 for the last time Dallas lost an exhibition game in Big D. Since 2003, the Pokes are 11-0-1 as a host in August, going an impressive 9-3 ATS.
Conversely, the 49ers have been a big-time go-against team on the road in preseason play, losing 10 of their last 11 on the highway in August (4-7 ATS). And while San Francisco has won its first two games this summer – both at home over Denver and Oakland – it did so only by stopping two two-point conversion attempts (the Broncos and Raiders both scored late in the fourth quarter and could’ve kicked tying extra-points but didn’t want to play overtime).
Finally, San Francisco is down a quarterback in this game. Alex Smith, who this week lost the competition with Shaun Hill for the starting job, is out with an injury. And Hill himself wrenched his back this week, and while he is slated to start, he’s probably not going to play as long as most starters do in Week 3. That leaves the Niners with journeyman Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis under center for possibly three full quarters! Now you know why Dallas, which will play its starters into the third quarter, is such a hefty chalk. Lay the wood and look for the Cowboys to continue their preseason dominance at home with a double-digit win.
(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)
5♦ DALLAS