UFC 100 Predictions
by T.O. Whenham - 07/08/2009
The UFC has made it into triple digits with their events, and they are celebrating that impressive milestone by putting together what is quite likely the best card they have ever had. The event, taking place Saturday at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, features two title fights and three other potential thrillers on the main card, and a very solid preliminary card as well. It features one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world in Georges St. Pierre (he could secure the top spot on those rankings with a big win here), and the most hyped heavyweight in a long time in former WWE champion Brock Lesnar.
The event sold out before tickets were made available to the public, and it's not hard to see why. Here's how I see it all going down (odds are from Bodog):
Brock Lesnar (-215) vs. Frank Mir (+175) - This match will unify the UFC Heavyweight Championship. It's a rematch of Lesnar's first fight. In that event Lesnar took Mir down twice, but his inexperience was evident and Mir earned an early submission. So much has changed since that fight that the results are only barely relevant. Lesnar has three more fights under his belt and has developed much more technique and depth to his game. Mir added another big win, and clearly improved his boxing significantly in the process, and is making it easier and easier to believe that he is a legitimate long-term contender. Both guys are well matched - they can play off the weaknesses of the other fighter well.
It's hard to find an edge, but I have to lean towards the favorite for one reason - athleticism. Lesnar is not only massive and bull-like, but also freakishly mobile for a big man. That gives him an edge if the fight deteriorates into a free-for-all, and that makes him the pick.
Pick: Brock Lesnar
Georges St. Pierre (-315) vs. Thiago Alves (+245) - I can't wait for this one. Alves brings two things to the table that St. Pierre isn't used to - unlike most GSP opponents he's not smaller than the champ, and he has more striking power than St. Pierre is used to. He'll have to use that striking skill to keep this one off the mat. No one wrestles as well as GSP, so if he can make this a wrestling contest it won't be pretty. Alves needs to negate that advantage and find a way to trap the champion and sting him. Frankly, though, I just don't see that happening. St. Pierre s to fast, strong and confident. This one could be close, but my guess is that it won't be. Either way, it is definitely St. Pierre's fight to lose.
Pick: Georges St. Pierre
Dan Henderson (-215) vs. Michael Bisping (+175) - This is a very interesting pairing between Henderson, a wrestler with a vicious punch, and Bisping, a kickboxer with decent jiu jitsu. Bisping will want to stay on his feet to maintain his edge, while Henderson will likely try to go to the ground as soon as he can. It's quite likely that this one will go the distance, and when that happens I see the edge going to Henderson. He's more powerful, and likely to be more effective in the later stages.
Pick: Dan Henderson
Jon Fitch (-550) vs. Paulo Thiago (+350) - Thiago is undefeated in 11 fights, but just one came in the UFC. Fitch is desperate to climb back into title contention, so he really needs a win here. Thiago is a bit of a mystery because of his inexperience and because we don't know how to beat him. Fitch, though, is a tough and talented fighter, and he'll be especially motivated here. Thiago stunned Josh Koscheck last time out, but I don't see him sneaking up on Fitch this time.
Pick: Jon Fitch
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-270) vs. Alan Belcher (+210) - Akiyama is an impressive Japanese fighter making his UFC debut. He's seen as a much-needed potential challenger to Anderson Silva. I don't doubt his credentials, but I have a real concern backing first-time UFC fighters, especially when they are heavily favored. Belcher beat Denis Kang in a similar situation in UFC 93, and it would be easy to give him too little credit. Akiyama is probably the best fighter, but there is value in the underdog at this price. Real value.
Pick: Alan Belcher
Stephan Bonnar (-365) vs. Mark Coleman (+285) - This fight is a joke. Coleman was once great, but he's well past his prime, and watching him continue on is just sad. This one could be ugly.
Pick: Stephan Bonnar
Jim Miller (-190) vs. Mac Bonnar (+155) - These two grapplers have similar styles. That means that the one who can better dictate the terms of the fight will have the edge. My best guess is that that will be Miller. He seems to be the better fighter, and that makes him the pick.
Pick: Jim Miller
Jon Jones (-525) vs. Jake O'Brien (+325) - The oddsmakers suggest that this isn't much of a contest. They are right. O'Brien has some nice knockouts to his credit, but Jones is a big jump on class for him, and I'm not convinced that he's up to it. Jones is faster, more athletic, and just plain better. This one won't go the distance. It may not even make it out of the first round.
Pick: Jon Jones
by T.O. Whenham - 07/08/2009
The UFC has made it into triple digits with their events, and they are celebrating that impressive milestone by putting together what is quite likely the best card they have ever had. The event, taking place Saturday at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, features two title fights and three other potential thrillers on the main card, and a very solid preliminary card as well. It features one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world in Georges St. Pierre (he could secure the top spot on those rankings with a big win here), and the most hyped heavyweight in a long time in former WWE champion Brock Lesnar.
The event sold out before tickets were made available to the public, and it's not hard to see why. Here's how I see it all going down (odds are from Bodog):
Brock Lesnar (-215) vs. Frank Mir (+175) - This match will unify the UFC Heavyweight Championship. It's a rematch of Lesnar's first fight. In that event Lesnar took Mir down twice, but his inexperience was evident and Mir earned an early submission. So much has changed since that fight that the results are only barely relevant. Lesnar has three more fights under his belt and has developed much more technique and depth to his game. Mir added another big win, and clearly improved his boxing significantly in the process, and is making it easier and easier to believe that he is a legitimate long-term contender. Both guys are well matched - they can play off the weaknesses of the other fighter well.
It's hard to find an edge, but I have to lean towards the favorite for one reason - athleticism. Lesnar is not only massive and bull-like, but also freakishly mobile for a big man. That gives him an edge if the fight deteriorates into a free-for-all, and that makes him the pick.
Pick: Brock Lesnar
Georges St. Pierre (-315) vs. Thiago Alves (+245) - I can't wait for this one. Alves brings two things to the table that St. Pierre isn't used to - unlike most GSP opponents he's not smaller than the champ, and he has more striking power than St. Pierre is used to. He'll have to use that striking skill to keep this one off the mat. No one wrestles as well as GSP, so if he can make this a wrestling contest it won't be pretty. Alves needs to negate that advantage and find a way to trap the champion and sting him. Frankly, though, I just don't see that happening. St. Pierre s to fast, strong and confident. This one could be close, but my guess is that it won't be. Either way, it is definitely St. Pierre's fight to lose.
Pick: Georges St. Pierre
Dan Henderson (-215) vs. Michael Bisping (+175) - This is a very interesting pairing between Henderson, a wrestler with a vicious punch, and Bisping, a kickboxer with decent jiu jitsu. Bisping will want to stay on his feet to maintain his edge, while Henderson will likely try to go to the ground as soon as he can. It's quite likely that this one will go the distance, and when that happens I see the edge going to Henderson. He's more powerful, and likely to be more effective in the later stages.
Pick: Dan Henderson
Jon Fitch (-550) vs. Paulo Thiago (+350) - Thiago is undefeated in 11 fights, but just one came in the UFC. Fitch is desperate to climb back into title contention, so he really needs a win here. Thiago is a bit of a mystery because of his inexperience and because we don't know how to beat him. Fitch, though, is a tough and talented fighter, and he'll be especially motivated here. Thiago stunned Josh Koscheck last time out, but I don't see him sneaking up on Fitch this time.
Pick: Jon Fitch
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-270) vs. Alan Belcher (+210) - Akiyama is an impressive Japanese fighter making his UFC debut. He's seen as a much-needed potential challenger to Anderson Silva. I don't doubt his credentials, but I have a real concern backing first-time UFC fighters, especially when they are heavily favored. Belcher beat Denis Kang in a similar situation in UFC 93, and it would be easy to give him too little credit. Akiyama is probably the best fighter, but there is value in the underdog at this price. Real value.
Pick: Alan Belcher
Stephan Bonnar (-365) vs. Mark Coleman (+285) - This fight is a joke. Coleman was once great, but he's well past his prime, and watching him continue on is just sad. This one could be ugly.
Pick: Stephan Bonnar
Jim Miller (-190) vs. Mac Bonnar (+155) - These two grapplers have similar styles. That means that the one who can better dictate the terms of the fight will have the edge. My best guess is that that will be Miller. He seems to be the better fighter, and that makes him the pick.
Pick: Jim Miller
Jon Jones (-525) vs. Jake O'Brien (+325) - The oddsmakers suggest that this isn't much of a contest. They are right. O'Brien has some nice knockouts to his credit, but Jones is a big jump on class for him, and I'm not convinced that he's up to it. Jones is faster, more athletic, and just plain better. This one won't go the distance. It may not even make it out of the first round.
Pick: Jon Jones
