Dave Malinsky
Today’s Free Pick
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels Jul 11, 2009 4:10PM
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #918 ANGELS/NY YANKEES Under
This game is being played about 2,500 miles from the Bronx, but the new Yankee Stadium has an impact when we see the full 10’s that are out there for this Total. And that offers ample room to step in. How often do you see a 10 on the board when matching a visiting starter that sports a 4-1/2.79 in all road games vs. a home starter that has worked to a 6-1/1.91 from his local mound? And in the cases of Andy Pettitte and Jered Weaver, these are not just short-term runs.
Since coming to the Major Leagues in 2006 Weaver has made 45 Anaheim starts, and if a 10 were attached each time it would mean a 29-14-2 tally for the Under. In that same span Pettitte has made 61 road starts, and they would chart 37-19-5 to the Under at a 10. Those are strong numbers over big samples, which absolutely begs the question as to why we see that plateau today, when Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter are absent, and all key bullpen arms are rested and ready. And part of that is the impact of the new park in the Bronx.
While Pettitte has been his usual steady self on the road it has been a 5.72 allowance at home, and we can blame almost all of that on the way the ball carries in those new confines – in road starts he has allowed two home runs in 42 innings, while that goes to 12 in 61.1 at home. Not only does that make his overall statistics a bit artificial, but it does the same thing for the Yankee offense. That is part of why they track to 16-11-2 to the Under on the road since the beginning of May, a span being skewed by some of those early home explosions.
Pettitte and Weaver bring much more than usual here for a double-digit total. The Angels will struggle against left-handers without their two best right-handed bats, while Weaver has been particularly effective against many of the Yankee hitters – Nick Swisher is at .158 over 19 at-bats; Mark Teixera .188 in 16; Johnny Damon .231 in 13; Derek Jeter .091 in 10; and Melky Cabrera is 0-10. That means that the oddsmakers have created a mountain instead of a hill this afternoon.