saratoga plays

[JBEX]

del mar


R7 #2 querelle (6-1)

won going a mile to 5.5f here last year (5 today ..close enough**)..run line and time in between very similiar to her last..drops,likes the track(win and 2nd two and three back) and trainer excellent in multiple applicable categories


** just saying this cause the other things come together very well

 

[Jack1999]

del mar


R7 #2 querelle (6-1)

won going a mile to 5.5f here last year (5 today ..close enough**)..run line and time in between very similiar to her last..drops,likes the track(win and 2nd two and three back) and trainer excellent in multiple applicable categories


** just saying this cause the other things come together very well

GL JBEX are you abandoning your DMR thread?

 

[JBEX]

GL JBEX are you abandoning your DMR thread?

forgot about it to be honest..may just keep it all in here

 

[Jack1999]

forgot about it to be honest..may just keep it all in here

OK sounds good. playing some DMR today myself. see what happens.

 

[JBEX]

actually rethinking that..may start an "others" thread so this one doesn't get too messy

 

[Jack1999]

actually rethinking that..may start an "others" thread so this one doesn't get too messy

yeah would be a good move. keep your SPA Plays separate like Michel does. your call.

 

[JBEX]

saratoga


R2 #6 unionduesincluded (30-1)
3WP
R2 #7 suffragette (20-1)2W



R6 #3 bourbon heist (10-1) 3WP

MISTAKE ABOVE..DON'T PLAY #8

R8 #6 ingress (12-1) 4WP

out @ 50
out @ 80
2nd @ 10-1 (head) $10
4th @ 25 **



(29) 68.80/258 [0.26] avg odds 15


** 4 single digits odds and 3 of them comprised 1st -3rd..
dime super $69..keying in 4th $2.40 ..figure in 3rd also another $2.40..that's where they're more likely to finish

 

[JBEX]

saratoga

can be played on an off track (little lighter) but for me it only counts on good or fast

just looked at the 2yo msw's but will look at others tomorrow





R1 #1 s oh s (12-1) 4WP


doesn't get much better for a 2yo firster pedigree than a homebred into mischief out of a productive speightstown mare.. trainer will get you a bit of a price but I do think she'll be significantly lower than that.. chad has a potential monster with #4 but he'll be overbet.. couple of others who have run good in their prior start or two but this is what gets you a price

SLOPPY




R6 #8 knowing glance (12-1) 3WP

high five figure that still to me is expensive for the specs factoring things beyond just the stallion fee. speed pedigree top and bottom and al stall can get them to win 1st out of they have the talent.. this field is a lot deeper in talent than the other (R1) imo.. a very tough assignment but if he's up to it will be an overlay.. I have a hunch he may take some early action in spite of what's in here






.

R2 #6 luna's in charge (10-1)


came in 2nd here last year under very similar circumstances

2nd off long layoff
1st off was a kentucky race
6.5f dirt to 5.5f turf here


interesting also from the perspective he's a ny bred who was running vs open company allowance horses in kentucky


SLOP,OFF TURF


tyler rides and he's done well with this trainer.. impressive works before and after his last race

(30) 68.80/264 [0.26] avg odds 14.33


two races don't count due to slop
3rd@ 9-2

 

[JBEX]

saratoga


R1 #2 fast car (7-2) 3WP
steeplechase

won 2nd off a long layoff last year (elsewhere) and followed up with a win here..excellent rider and the only other who compares is on the favorite "#6 the mean queen (6-5)"



R4 #3 alpine queen (9-2) 4WP

R5 #8 regal empire (7-2) 3WP

 

[JBEX]

R6 #3 pipeline (6-1) 4WP
R10 #4 romantic man (20-1) 3WP

 

[JBEX]

saratoga

R1 #1a jedrek (12-1) 4WP





lightly raced and he hasn't been this low yet..even though he was running against maiden claimers he did it at the toughest venues in kentucky and oaklawn


an inexpensive yearling purchase so no big deal that he's running here for this price


the heart of the matter is the sprint running lines in his first 3 races..these to me suggest a stretch out and a drop might be just what he needs

he is bred to go long top and bottom and lezcano is excellent riding route races

..I'll excuse breaking from the 10 post last out in his only attempt on the turf

..I realize you can say this about any horse but I have always felt that for some being up at the spa can be a wake up call..different environment and if there's some latent talent this is one of those places that may bring it out more than most





.

 

[Jack1999]

SAR R1 is on the dirt. I am more impressed with Lezcano's numbers with S rated(running style) horses. Very efficient ROI. Jedrek has not done much albeit at higher levels. Maybe you have a point he is primed to go longer. But his best velocity numbers are 20 points under par. Would need a huge move forward. I guess it's Possible but I will look elsewhere. Maybe underneath his his ceiling. Good luck.

 

[JBEX]

I don't count turf or sloppy track figures when I compare..also
any of the belmont route figures I downgrade as they are around 1 turn which I consider a whole different animal..so I don't see the big figure differences as an issue whatever the result

 

[Jack1999]

OK valid points but his 2 best figures were 68 one on a fast track and one on the slop. and like I said it's for sure possible he can move forward 20 points. no doubt. see what Happens. and the rest of the field looks a bit suspect I may add.

 

[JBEX]

don't have time to go back n forth (at least right now) for a while as I have to run out and will be busy..I don't think he has to improve 20 pts and that's why I made my point above..if his 20 points are on a sloppy track or a turf race it doesn't matter to me..could elaborate further but unfortunately don't have time this morning

 

[JBEX]

have a little time ..there are times when other things are happening besides figures where I will stray from them..no question the 457 have shown more than mine but that will be reflected in the odds..it's quite probable that this is the first chance the 5 has got to go 2 turns in ny at the right level..he may have that mud number in him on a fast track and he's run well off a short layoff before


I'll always try to beat good belmont route races because of the different layoff and track surface


I will probably lose but enough there for me to take a crack at a price..not a fan of the trainer either

 

[Jack1999]

OK JBEX good points. Yeah not a fan of Zito either his best days are behind him (imo) good luck I may play Jedrek underneath.

 

[JBEX]

thanks..that's where he's most likely to finish with a good effort

 

[Jack1999]

Just watched Serling and Stabile talk about Race 1. Stabile was saying the same things you are about Jedrek. interesting. Stabile picks him 2nd.

 

[JBEX]

Just watched Serling and Stabile talk about Race 1. Stabile was saying the same things you are about Jedrek. interesting. Stabile picks him 2nd.

cool..probably going to be watching a replay of it