looks like I'm behind a card grading
R2 #4 point of humor (10-1) 4WP
a 6 year old maiden making his 18th career start usually not a good thing but there are some interesting circumstances here.. 14 of the 17 starts were on turf and today we're on the dirt.. can only see his last 2 dirt tries (goes back 10 so missing 1).. 4 starts back up close to a sizzling fast pace (by figures) and faded badly..6 starts back (his 2nd attempt on dirt) would probably win this race or easily put him in contention..also it was at 6.5f and 6f (today's distance) might have made the difference.. realize we're going back to December 2019 for this race but still find it interesting.. 2nd start for the horse with this trainer (who's off to a great start at the meet).. and ridden by co-leading jockey saez.. trainer solid 2nd off the layoff and going turf to dirt
R4 #2 dancing kiki (9-5) 8W
finally where she belongs class, distance and surface
R5 #6 hope over fear (12-1) 4WP
often talk about value for the specs and this debuter fits
that even though she's only a high 5 figure auction purchase.. sire is a newbie but dam sire is well above avg on turf.. trainer a hall of famer who I've seen over the years win with debuter's going two turn s on the lawn and his stats reflect that..was worked regularly at payson park from early april to early may.. took a month break and was worked regularly at saratoga including a quick move 2 days ago.. many of the others fast which I think is interesting for a mott debuter going long..should be plenty fit.. top jockey saez rides
R6 #4 quaysadilla (12-1) 3WP
skip the write-up.. fts with lots of good things pedigree-wise.. understand the ml though
R7 #2 irresistible girl (12-1) 3WP
can explain the bad effort last race (fast pace, route) but 2 back which was first off the claim not really.. still lightly raced and many efforts make her competitive here and saez jumps aboard.. 2 and 3 posts place to be in 6f sprints over a multi year sample
R9 #5 portilla (6-1) 3WP
R10 #10 love's misery (20-1) 3WP
R2 #4 point of humor (10-1) 4WP
a 6 year old maiden making his 18th career start usually not a good thing but there are some interesting circumstances here.. 14 of the 17 starts were on turf and today we're on the dirt.. can only see his last 2 dirt tries (goes back 10 so missing 1).. 4 starts back up close to a sizzling fast pace (by figures) and faded badly..6 starts back (his 2nd attempt on dirt) would probably win this race or easily put him in contention..also it was at 6.5f and 6f (today's distance) might have made the difference.. realize we're going back to December 2019 for this race but still find it interesting.. 2nd start for the horse with this trainer (who's off to a great start at the meet).. and ridden by co-leading jockey saez.. trainer solid 2nd off the layoff and going turf to dirt
R4 #2 dancing kiki (9-5) 8W
finally where she belongs class, distance and surface
R5 #6 hope over fear (12-1) 4WP
often talk about value for the specs and this debuter fits
that even though she's only a high 5 figure auction purchase.. sire is a newbie but dam sire is well above avg on turf.. trainer a hall of famer who I've seen over the years win with debuter's going two turn s on the lawn and his stats reflect that..was worked regularly at payson park from early april to early may.. took a month break and was worked regularly at saratoga including a quick move 2 days ago.. many of the others fast which I think is interesting for a mott debuter going long..should be plenty fit.. top jockey saez rides
R6 #4 quaysadilla (12-1) 3WP
skip the write-up.. fts with lots of good things pedigree-wise.. understand the ml though
R7 #2 irresistible girl (12-1) 3WP
can explain the bad effort last race (fast pace, route) but 2 back which was first off the claim not really.. still lightly raced and many efforts make her competitive here and saez jumps aboard.. 2 and 3 posts place to be in 6f sprints over a multi year sample
R9 #5 portilla (6-1) 3WP
R10 #10 love's misery (20-1) 3WP
Hey JBEX: if you want me to grade your plays here let me know. Have some free time in the morn at the Latest. Just say the word. If so, you grade the last 2 cards, and I can start the process. You probably will want me to hold off as I am not planning on counting plays or doing avg odds. But maybe we can work as a team. Let me know.
Hey JBEX: I know when the grading is slow you are not doing too good. Looks like you had 1 winner today. Keep plugging away though. Your time will come.
there's no correlation between how I'm doing and when I grade..I personally find grading to be a pita..when your avg odds is high you're going to have more bad streaks than normal and the sample size required to have any meaning is a lot more..that's why I do avg odds
I will continue to grade mine but on occassion may be off a few days..number of plays and avg odds is a must as it gives a more accurate picture of what's going on
R1 #7 stolen base (4-1) 4WP
this msw race is limited to horses that were purchased for $45k or less so not nearly like an open one..gotta like a horse with that name as a fts ..dam sire speed and class and dam has already produced a nice horse from only 2 to race..solid steady works and trainer/jock are a good combo
R3 #4 no burn (12-1) 3WP
find it a little interesting when a guy like mott is involved with a very cheap horse and has enough faith to put him in vs the killers in this race
R5 #6 durkin's call (6-1) 4WP
won cutting back dropping to an extended sprint off a 1 turn mile 3 starts back..very similar running lines..was a reclaim 3 starts back for a trainer who is excellent in claiming races
this msw race is limited to horses that were purchased for $45k or less so not nearly like an open one..gotta like a horse with that name as a fts ..dam sire speed and class and dam has already produced a nice horse from only 2 to race..solid steady works and trainer/jock are a good combo
R3 #4 no burn (12-1) 3WP
find it a little interesting when a guy like mott is involved with a very cheap horse and has enough faith to put him in vs the killers in this race
R5 #6 durkin's call (6-1) 4WP
won cutting back dropping to an extended sprint off a 1 turn mile 3 starts back..very similar running lines..was a reclaim 3 starts back for a trainer who is excellent in claiming races
saratoga
can be played on an off track (little lighter) but for me it only counts on good or fast
just looked at the 2yo msw's but will look at others tomorrow
R1 #1 s oh s (12-1) 4WP
doesn't get much better for a 2yo firster pedigree than a homebred into mischief out of a productive speightstown mare.. trainer will get you a bit of a price but I do think she'll be significantly lower than that.. chad has a potential monster with #4 but he'll be overbet.. couple of others who have run good in their prior start or two but this is what gets you a price
R6 #8 knowing glance (12-1) 3WP
high five figure that still to me is expensive for the specs factoring things beyond just the stallion fee. speed pedigree top and bottom and al stall can get them to win 1st out of they have the talent.. this field is a lot deeper in talent than the other (R1) imo.. a very tough assignment but if he's up to it will be an overlay.. I have a hunch he may take some early action in spite of what's in here
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can be played on an off track (little lighter) but for me it only counts on good or fast
just looked at the 2yo msw's but will look at others tomorrow
R1 #1 s oh s (12-1) 4WP
doesn't get much better for a 2yo firster pedigree than a homebred into mischief out of a productive speightstown mare.. trainer will get you a bit of a price but I do think she'll be significantly lower than that.. chad has a potential monster with #4 but he'll be overbet.. couple of others who have run good in their prior start or two but this is what gets you a price
R6 #8 knowing glance (12-1) 3WP
high five figure that still to me is expensive for the specs factoring things beyond just the stallion fee. speed pedigree top and bottom and al stall can get them to win 1st out of they have the talent.. this field is a lot deeper in talent than the other (R1) imo.. a very tough assignment but if he's up to it will be an overlay.. I have a hunch he may take some early action in spite of what's in here
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R2 #6 luna's in charge (10-1)
came in 2nd here last year under very similar circumstances
2nd off long layoff
1st off was a kentucky race
6.5f dirt to 5.5f turf here
interesting also from the perspective he's a ny bred who was running vs open company allowance horses in kentucky
tyler rides and he's done well with this trainer.. impressive works before and after his last race
came in 2nd here last year under very similar circumstances
2nd off long layoff
1st off was a kentucky race
6.5f dirt to 5.5f turf here
interesting also from the perspective he's a ny bred who was running vs open company allowance horses in kentucky
tyler rides and he's done well with this trainer.. impressive works before and after his last race
from now on other tracks will be boldface to easily distinguish them
ellis park
R4 #4 delightful moment (10-1)
saratoga quality field..trained by mike mccarthy who I was pissed about missing at churchill about a month ago..would never play just for that reason and the pedigree on this fts is outstanding ..overall and first out..think will be lower
ellis park
R4 #4 delightful moment (10-1)
saratoga quality field..trained by mike mccarthy who I was pissed about missing at churchill about a month ago..would never play just for that reason and the pedigree on this fts is outstanding ..overall and first out..think will be lower
