on average, the SPY retraces 5% 2-3 /yr. 2021? once ....
the spy chart is on an upward trending channel since May... respecting its boundaries. When it gets to the bottom of the channel it bounces. How many times has the bottom of the channel been tested AND bounced off of? FIVE. IF it were to re-trace its important it holds the bottom of the channel, or else something has changed. Where is the bottom of the channel? its easy to see on a chart but i cant copy it from investing.com. here's the chart and just put a trendline connecting the lows of May. There is a gap at 443 which will be a magnet if ti retraces (2% from here), if that corresponds with the bottom of the channel and a bullish candle apears ? probability says buy. Again, a break of the bottom of this channel is not good.
https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500-chart
click candlesticks, click 1D (the daily chart), click widesceen. ya gotta draw the lower trend line of the channel - start from the May 2021 low and connect the lows with a best fit line, you will see 5 tests of this line--ALL HELD. its like algos or JoeyB @)
dont want this line broken
the spy chart is on an upward trending channel since May... respecting its boundaries. When it gets to the bottom of the channel it bounces. How many times has the bottom of the channel been tested AND bounced off of? FIVE. IF it were to re-trace its important it holds the bottom of the channel, or else something has changed. Where is the bottom of the channel? its easy to see on a chart but i cant copy it from investing.com. here's the chart and just put a trendline connecting the lows of May. There is a gap at 443 which will be a magnet if ti retraces (2% from here), if that corresponds with the bottom of the channel and a bullish candle apears ? probability says buy. Again, a break of the bottom of this channel is not good.
https://www.investing.com/etfs/spdr-s-p-500-chart
click candlesticks, click 1D (the daily chart), click widesceen. ya gotta draw the lower trend line of the channel - start from the May 2021 low and connect the lows with a best fit line, you will see 5 tests of this line--ALL HELD. its like algos or JoeyB @)
dont want this line broken
I just wish the economy did
More democrats would become taxpayers
whoop whoop whoop
Oh, who am I kidding, firgetaboutit
since 2013, 8 yrs ago;
the month of Nov has been green ALL EIGHT yrs.
for 2021 how many mths has the SPY been red ? one..over the last 27 yrs only TWICE has the SPY ended the yr with only 1 negative month. Does she continue this glorious run?
IWM (the russell)
6 mth daily
200 sma
clear horizontal channel, 210 is the bottom of the box, a loss of it and something has changed. Eyeing a gap fill @ $216ish and a bounce off its 200 sma...a loss of current level and likely that's where she's headed
DIA (the dow) LOST its 50 sma today...
the month of Nov has been green ALL EIGHT yrs.
for 2021 how many mths has the SPY been red ? one..over the last 27 yrs only TWICE has the SPY ended the yr with only 1 negative month. Does she continue this glorious run?
IWM (the russell)
6 mth daily
200 sma
clear horizontal channel, 210 is the bottom of the box, a loss of it and something has changed. Eyeing a gap fill @ $216ish and a bounce off its 200 sma...a loss of current level and likely that's where she's headed
DIA (the dow) LOST its 50 sma today...
well, we shall see for 2021. Holy molly crazy shit. Quite a few big companies warning. FedEx a few weeks ago, NKE, INTC today (getting hammered ) to expect normal production by 2023 , HON as well .....realty check as to how dependent the western world has become on Asia............... with wild inflation, companies warning and yet the SPY breaking to new highs, lol
waiting for the dust to settle on INTC-have a look at the 3 yr weekly, hoping to sell $44 puts--a massive army of support @$44 ish .Current RSI on the WEEKLY is 34, getting set up nicely (similar situation happened with FDX). Need it to tank further, may get attractive premiums if msft, appl lay eggs next week
(TSM is building a large chip factory in Arizona-- ha! east building factories in the west
..)how about NVAX. LMFAO . Operation Ward Speed handed them $1.6 BILLION last summer and these guys keep fucking shit up-- can US taxpayers get that money back
NVAX
6 mth daily
its like a ping pong, the weekly premiums for ATM puts r paying just under 5%. lol
thanks for sharing, definitely in a hot sector and had a great week up 18% congrats. Mid to late Sept saw a rise in volatility providing tremendous opportunities in the options market-i was already stretched , had to leave plays untouched that i wuold otherwise had taken-- including that sector. URA (Global Uranium ETF) came back to test its breakout level..oh well -- its double top or breaks again to the upside next week . Hard not to like commodity related plays nowadays . But not for the faint at heart
didnt post the chart;
INTC
5 yr weekly
as we can see $43-$44 is a massive support level, without risk there is no reward . The weekly candle today strongly suggests a lower low next week . Put premiums at said price r crappola at Fridays close, pass ..need to be paid more . AAPL reports next thursday, danger looms-- dont care what their numbers are, if they warn of supply issues- look out below .
didnt post the chart;
INTC
5 yr weekly
as we can see $43-$44 is a massive support level, without risk there is no reward
. The weekly candle today strongly suggests a lower low next week . Put premiums at said price r crappola at Fridays close, pass ..need to be paid more . AAPL reports next thursday, danger looms-- dont care what their numbers are, if they warn of supply issues- look out below .
thanks for sharing, definitely in a hot sector and had a great week up 18% congrats. Mid to late Sept saw a rise in volatility providing tremendous opportunities in the options market-i was already stretched , had to leave plays untouched that i wuold otherwise had taken-- including that sector. URA (Global Uranium ETF) came back to test its breakout level..oh well -- its double top or breaks again to the upside next week . Hard not to like commodity related plays nowadays . But not for the faint at heart
didnt post the chart;
INTC
5 yr weekly
as we can see $43-$44 is a massive support level, without risk there is no reward
I would LOVE to be more market Savvy. Do you like INTC or not like it?
I recently just got into in on a DRIP
knight, u seem sincere in ur wish to be more 'market savvy'. It would be in your family's best interest to follow through. if a dummy like me can self -educate than u can. This is your retirement , life's savings- do u really want to leave it others? they will ALWAYS have their interests at heart. Be the CEO of your money. Not everyone is wired for this . The Internet is a world of info, its all there. Send me a PM if yuo'd like
yes like INTC. BUT to be PAID to get the stock at the PRICE I WANT or else im not an owner ($44-43 ish see chart above), to create monthly passive ideally NOT to be assigned - my mandate is different than yours
W Buffet wanted to buy KO in 2017--with a click of a button he made $7.5 mill in SELLING put options.
lookign to sell puts on FB, V, INTC. gotta come to me at % of premium AND price , if not, all good,
keep in mind, i have no idea and neither do you who will win --gain further share in the battle of desktop chip producers amd or itnc. If one wants to play the long term game ( your goal? ) and yet doesnt want to guess? consider playing the entire chip market - soxx (etf of semiconductors space ) is a consideration . As u likely know, amd has kicked intc's ass roi for awhile now. AMD outsources to TSM. TSM has an economic moot - it produces 90% of our planets high end chips- let that sink in. The planet is dependent on this Taiwan company, lol. INTC DOES produce its own desktops chips.
yes like INTC. BUT to be PAID to get the stock at the PRICE I WANT or else im not an owner ($44-43 ish see chart above), to create monthly passive ideally NOT to be assigned - my mandate is different than yours
W Buffet wanted to buy KO in 2017--with a click of a button he made $7.5 mill in SELLING put options.
lookign to sell puts on FB, V, INTC. gotta come to me at % of premium AND price , if not, all good,
keep in mind, i have no idea and neither do you who will win --gain further share in the battle of desktop chip producers amd or itnc. If one wants to play the long term game ( your goal? ) and yet doesnt want to guess? consider playing the entire chip market - soxx (etf of semiconductors space ) is a consideration . As u likely know, amd has kicked intc's ass roi for awhile now. AMD outsources to TSM. TSM has an economic moot - it produces 90% of our planets high end chips- let that sink in. The planet is dependent on this Taiwan company, lol. INTC DOES produce its own desktops chips.
to add V had a blockbuster qtr, the stock price tanked cause the CEO is a worry wart, lol . Visa has a license to print money, mind boggling how they get away with rip-ping off people.. all legal of course. The gap on its day chart will be filled--u can bank that.
IPAY is the etf if ya dont want to play an individual stock
IPAY is the etf if ya dont want to play an individual stock
SPECTACULAR year for the capital markets . Ray Dalio had a paper a few yrs back talking about the wealth divide--that has been grossly accelerated via covid/monetary policy. Asset classes have gone nutso, commodities, nutty cartoonish crypto, real estate ...etc. At the two different spectrums; those who own real estate, multiple properties, heavy equity portfolio -glorious, at the other extreme the younger generation havent even entered University likely debt slaves for life?
Powell has been walking the tight rope, saved the day Jan 2019....saved the day mid 2020 and has kept the foot on the pedal ever since. HOWEVER, he has turned. For those that dont follow, his last meetings are echoing the same theme-- he is worried about inflation, upping rates and will accelerate rate increases as needed ;
one economist take of the last Fed meeting;
“Fed officials have sent a loud and clear message to markets -- they are serious about controlling inflation, and are willing to hike rates faster and higher. There is no question now that the majority of FOMC participants are focused on the price stability pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate, even with the omicron variant posing downside risks to growth.”
Powell felt inflationary issues were 'transitory'-- he has aborted. One good piece of news is supply chain issues hopefully end soon, China has recently LOWERED rates . The shortage of chips has been nuts, filtering through various sectors
the last time the SPY had back-to-back years close to 2020, 2021? gotta go back to 1999 !
2022 will be challenging year for the markets, do we finally see value over growth sector? lets keep in mind blue chip company after company were warning last qtr.
Also keep in mind the FED has been preaching about govt fiscal responsibility for years, geez Yellen was a preacher! Tea party emerged, they died in 2017 when they buried the debt ceiling I'd imagine lol ,taken to the woodshed. Do we see the fiscal conservatives come out of the closet in due time ?.. a re-birth if u will ..
Powell has been walking the tight rope, saved the day Jan 2019....saved the day mid 2020 and has kept the foot on the pedal ever since. HOWEVER, he has turned. For those that dont follow, his last meetings are echoing the same theme-- he is worried about inflation, upping rates and will accelerate rate increases as needed ;
one economist take of the last Fed meeting;
“Fed officials have sent a loud and clear message to markets -- they are serious about controlling inflation, and are willing to hike rates faster and higher. There is no question now that the majority of FOMC participants are focused on the price stability pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate, even with the omicron variant posing downside risks to growth.”
Powell felt inflationary issues were 'transitory'-- he has aborted. One good piece of news is supply chain issues hopefully end soon, China has recently LOWERED rates . The shortage of chips has been nuts, filtering through various sectors
the last time the SPY had back-to-back years close to 2020, 2021? gotta go back to 1999 !
2022 will be challenging year for the markets, do we finally see value over growth sector? lets keep in mind blue chip company after company were warning last qtr.
Also keep in mind the FED has been preaching about govt fiscal responsibility for years, geez Yellen was a preacher! Tea party emerged, they died in 2017 when they buried the debt ceiling I'd imagine lol ,taken to the woodshed. Do we see the fiscal conservatives come out of the closet in due time ?.. a re-birth if u will ..
It could go a few ways this year, when tapering is completed and rates are being hiked you could see fiscal policy offset it to keep things propped.
But the main thing I'm pretty sure of is if the market pukes when Powell ends QE and starts hiking rates, he will just reverse. Not like he's gonna keep hiking and pop an asset bubble. He already proved that in 2018. I guess now the threat of inflation is bigger but even then, I don't see him or anyone in charge choosing asset deflation to fight inflation. It'll just have to run.
But the main thing I'm pretty sure of is if the market pukes when Powell ends QE and starts hiking rates, he will just reverse. Not like he's gonna keep hiking and pop an asset bubble. He already proved that in 2018. I guess now the threat of inflation is bigger but even then, I don't see him or anyone in charge choosing asset deflation to fight inflation. It'll just have to run.
yeah, that is the expectation if markets puke , rinse and repeat. I gotta believe he didnt anticipate supply chains broken for this long, hence the 'transitory' theme he was running for a while. He has relented.
big move in a defensive sector since Powell's last meetings, a breakout ;
XLP (consumer staples)
if it retraces in Jan, my plan is to sell puts at the breakout level -double top , ($73 ish), expectations is it holds that level
big move in a defensive sector since Powell's last meetings, a breakout ;
XLP (consumer staples)
if it retraces in Jan, my plan is to sell puts at the breakout level -double top , ($73 ish), expectations is it holds that level
fun fact:
since 1950, there have been 19 times the SPY has gained 20% + annual returns. In 16 of those 19 occurrences (a cool 84%) the SPY has followed with a positive yr , more gains, with an AVERAGE of + 11.5%.
charts are showing some exhaustion, red flags , near term weakness likely on the horizon.
one country that didn't participate in the global party in 2021 was Brasil. A crippling 10.5% inflation rate shunned growth. Reversion to the mean may be on the horizon.
EWZ
1 decade monthly
6 red candles on the monthly, lol. vol decreasing, selling drying up.lookin' like bottoming process. would love to see a green hammer pattern...on the lower time frame, the weekly, no stoppage of lower lows yet. need either double bottom or higher low on the weekly or else NADA has changed .
since 1950, there have been 19 times the SPY has gained 20% + annual returns. In 16 of those 19 occurrences (a cool 84%) the SPY has followed with a positive yr , more gains, with an AVERAGE of + 11.5%.
charts are showing some exhaustion, red flags , near term weakness likely on the horizon.
one country that didn't participate in the global party in 2021 was Brasil. A crippling 10.5% inflation rate shunned growth. Reversion to the mean may be on the horizon.
EWZ
1 decade monthly
6 red candles on the monthly, lol. vol decreasing, selling drying up.lookin' like bottoming process. would love to see a green hammer pattern...on the lower time frame, the weekly, no stoppage of lower lows yet. need either double bottom or higher low on the weekly or else NADA has changed .
