Roland Garros WTA

[croaker]

Glad you got Halep, I've definitely had luck on my side the last couple of days.

I dodged a bullet by not taking Keys.

Sadly there is only 1 match left, I have the match pretty easy for Halep. And the odds markets and early bettors agree.

Implied odds are 67% in favor of Halep. My model show's 65% which is the same as the opening lines. So thinking about how to play it.

Record now

29-15

+998 +14.7% ROI

I started to do better when I started to take lower variance alt plays ie sets [apart from the Begu match]. I think unless you play a huge number of matches taking lower variance bets with similar EV is less risky.

 

[varkeyboy]

Nothing today?

 

[croaker]

Not today

I've been busy working on my model.

I have made a lot of progress since my initial attempt.

Its a bit harder to do tennis than NFL and NBA as they use a cumulative score.

Tennis has points, games, sets and eventually you come end up with a match.

It gets tougher once you start to think about the second set as the odds are affected by what happens in the first set.

I still need to think get some confidence around one of the parameters, and think about how to adjust for the second set odds, but my brain has had enough numbers for one day.

I'm just going to watch the ninomiya hozumi match and get some sleep.

Hopefully have some info tomorrow.

BOL

 

[varkeyboy]

Hozumi + Ninomiya are $$$$$$ at +140!!! Thanks for the tip.

 

[croaker]

Yes they won comfortably.

They looked a bit more serious today, but Ninomiya seemed to keep their spirits up when things got tough.

 

[croaker]

Final match tonight, looks likes odds are about right so not much value.

IMO best value is Halep 1st set, as you have the option of being able to bet on Halep 2nd set at better odds if she loses the 1st.

If Halep loses the first set her 2nd set line should be around -110, with ML likely to be around +193 based on the current prematch lines.

Something I remember from my Uni days is that having options [not necessarily the financial derivative's] is valuable, even if it is difficult to quantify the value of the option.

So for my last bet for Paris it will be a tennis derivative bet, for Halep to win a 1 set, but rather than take the -550 for +1.5 sets, I will try the following:

Halep 1st set with the intention of betting enough to win around $90 on her winning the 2nd set if she loses the first set.

My maths and the odds makers give Halep a 65% chance of winning the first set.

My estimated payoff table is:

Halep wins first set +$50

Halep loses first set and loses second -$200

Halep loses first set and wins 2nd set +40

So I am essentially risking up to $200 to win either $40 or $50.

So for clarity

Adding Halep 1st set to win $50 at -194 ie bet $97.

Will update after end of first set the amount and odds for 2nd set bet if required.

I'm not sure if this approach is worthwhile, the maths for it has been doing my head in, but at least trying it may be valuable.

BOL

 

[croaker]

Well that didn't go as planned.

Halep played poorly in the first and lost it.

The odds for the second set were only -137 and while I was trying to work the implied odds and out how much to bet they started the 2nd set.

Halep proceeded to get broken in the first game and I managed to get a bet on at +153 for the 2nd set. So fingers crossed.

Won't count for record as I missed placing the bet prior to the start of the set....

 

[croaker]

Halep won the match. After clunking the 1st set, she played pretty good in the 2nd half of the 2nd set and for all of the 3rd set.

Practically, it was tougher to get the live bet on than I thought, I didn't think the live 2nd set odds were high enough, based on the implied odds from the prematch lines, so I quickly tried to check how the oddsmakers had adjusted the probabilities for the match and to take into account that Halep was to serve first. It was also around 2am here so I wasn't thinking that fast.

But it took me too long and the 2nd set had started. Also I had no chance of getting the bet on and posting here before the 2nd set started.

I have few ideas about how to improve this if I decide to try it again.

The odds for Halep to win the 2nd set dropped were 55%, lower than the 65% to win 1st, but higher than the 51% from the prematch implied odds.

If had got the bet on it would have been at -136 and betting that to win $100 I would have ended up betting 233 and won $50, still better than the prematch line for Halep +1.5 sets, so I think there may be value in this approach.

So sadly I have to end the tourney on a loss of $97.

So record at end of RG.

29-16

+901 +13.1% ROI

Still a very low sample size but a little promising.


FYI for this tourney I ended up 20-11 +781 +17.4%

PS

Girls doubles tonight, I'll watch the Ninomiya-Hozumi match, and use it to adjust my model for live betting, and then probably have a crack at Nottingham. Hopefully it will give me a feel for how going from clay to grass affects the matches prior to London. My thoughts are that the change in surface won't affect the girls as much as it affects the men.