Roland Garros WTA

[croaker]

Putintseva won comfortably.

The Wozniaki match has been paused for bad light in the 2nd set at 3-3.

Woz was serving for the set at 5-3 but couldn't close it out and ended up losing the eventual tie break. She's 3-3 in the 2nd so there is still hope, but she will have to play better when they restart the match.

Woz is +175 on b365 to win, which is around the same as odds for her to win 2-0 prematch.

The match resumes after Haleps match which is first up tonight.

 

[croaker]

4 games plus the conclusion of the Wozniaki-Kontaveit match

Kina will be serving first and if she holds I will probably take Woz ML hopefully around +200. Not for record.

Kina is hitting around 80% of her 1st serves in the match so far, and if she continues to do so she will probably win. So need good odds on Woz.

Halep-Mertens

Mertens got 3 games off Halep last time they played, and Haleps line has dropped, I think the match will be a lot closer than the odds suggest and that Mertens +1.5 sets may have value. The other side is Halep -1.5 which looks attractive as well. I slightly favor Halep -1.5 sets. Hmmmmm pass.


Kerber-Garcia

I favor Kerber here, Garcia played lights out against Begu and if she plays like that again she should win.

Kerbers line has come in I will take Kerber if the line goes out, hopefully the French will bet on their player closer to match time and give me some juicy odds.

Will update prior to the start.

Go Woz.

 

[croaker]

Wrong about the Halep match.

It match was close for 3 games. Halep won the 3rd game which lasted 18pts. Mertens only got 2 more games for the rest of the match.

Mertens is a better player than that but she just couldn't points.

I ended up putting a small bet on Woz at +275 after she went down 3-4, and she promptly got broken. At least it will be over quickly.

Kerber now clear ML favorite

 

[croaker]

Kerber ended up winning pretty comfortably against Garcia.

Serena and Mugu matches were non events.


So after Woz losing and Putintseva winning record is now:

26-15

+698 +10.8%

 

[croaker]

A couple of thoughts on the matches.

Garcia couldn't put in another peak performance and reverted to the mean. Result went the way of the numbers. Oddsmakers, bettors and my model were all on the right side with this one. I didn't bet it as I thought there was a good chance that Garcia would continue to play at high level at home. Early line was good.

Mertens, looked like she lost confidence after losing the long [18 pt] 3rd game. I didn't have her winning, but was surprised at the margin of victory.

My numbers indicated this match would closer than the odds indicate but in favor of Halep. Oddsmakers lines were heavily favoring Halep and Halep ended up winning easily. Early line was better for Halep.

Kasatkina played better than average and Wozniaki just a little worse. I had Woz winning this comfortably similar to the oddsmakers and thought about taking the 2-0 line. Bettors agreed as the Woz line came in from the open. Early line better for Woz.

The Giorgi and Stephens match was evenly matched and very close, and both grils played well. My numbers had a tiny edge for Giorgi and the oddsmakers had Stephens winning comfortably. The match could have easily gone either way. B365 implied win% for Stephens to win the match was 62% at close, I had it at almost 50/50. Bettors agreed with oddsmakers and the Giorgi line went out. Late line better for Giorgi.


A few thoughts about my results, trying to be objective, and to learn for the future.

Giorgi +1.5 was good, ML would have been value as well. Ending up with Giorgi serving for the match twice at the prematch odds of +180 I would be happy to take anytime.

Woz was bet was fine but just have to wear the loss.

Halep -1.5 would have been OK particularly with the early line, I got cold feet after the line moved in

Kerber over Garcia ML would have been OK particularly at + odds, I waited hoping for the line to move out but it kept coming in. Kerber at + odds was a much better bet than Woz as favorite but both OK. But I was happier to follow the crowd at poor odds than I was to take the better EV bet..

Puntiseva +1.5 was good, Barb put in a clunker which helped but I think Putintseva was good for a set even if Barb had played better.

Sakarri and Peng +1.5 would have been better than ML and still had good odds, it would have avoided the close but no cigar outcome.

Begu is costing me money atm, maybe she is suffering form the Bortles effect, ie a stat mosnter but all against prevent defense in junk time after game is decided. Haven't seen her put in even an average performance against a top player for a while.

Wang match 4-0 up in 2nd set I am happy to take, she will be gutted. If she had kept her foot down she would most likely have ended up with a QF against Keys. I have to suck this one in. I saw in one of the qualifying matches one of the girls was cruising and then she suddenly smiled when she lost a point, she only won 2 games after that. My take is she thought I'm going to be playing in the main draw and lost focus. It only takes a small reduction in performance to have a big impact on the outcome.

I've spent a bit of time on the maths now, its quite challenging. I can't find any way of calculating the match win% odds directly from the data, but I am close to solving the set % odds, and from those I should be able to produce ML odds.

At this stage I can only calculate whether the match is a flip, comfortable win, or a mismatch which you can pretty much tell without any maths.

 

[croaker]

Quick question for anyone who has any ideas.

I've done a comparison between implied odds for winning 1st set and the -1.5 sets ie winning the 1st set and the 2nd set, using pinny lines and have taken the various vig levels into account.

For Halep v Kerber

Halep has implied odds of 63.4% to win 1st set and 45.4% to won 2-0.

This means that the implied odds to win the 2nd set [conditional upon winning the first] increase to 71.6%.

My question is

Is it reasonable to assume that a player has increased chances of winning the 2nd set after winning the first? And if so by how much?

I trying to get a handle on whether there is any value betting 1st set over -1.5 sets.

If there isn't it will provide information on how the books adjust their probabilities over the short term, ie after 1 set.

I'll will try to track the live 2nd set odds for matches after the first set and see how they compare with the implied odds for 2nd set based on the closing odds for -1.5 sets.

 

[croaker]

Not specifically for WTA but there is an interesting match tonight in ATP between Thiem and Zverev.

Thiem beat Nadal recently but then lost to Fognini.

Thiem is favorite with implied odds of 61% to win.

The narrative is Thiem is better on clay, Thiem beat Nadal, Zverev is struggling.

I have looked at the numbers and for 2018 these indicate that Zverev is better on clay than Thiem and the Zverev has a small but significant edge over Thiem on clay atm.

The Thiem line has come in from the open.

Based on the numbers [performance on clay for 2018] I think Zverev should be comfortable favorite almost reverse of current lines.

not for record for FYI I'm going to bet Thiem ML and add if he does down a set if I am still awake...

NB A lot of stuff can still happen in a match but there seems to be value with Zverev in this spot.

 

[croaker]

Tonights QF matches


Putintseva vs Keys

Taking Keys -1.5 sets -120

I think its a mismatch and should be a reasonably easy win for Keys.


Stephens vs Kasatkina

Pass

Flip, I see this as very close. If Stephens was a bigger dog I would take her +1.5 sets but not at -250.


BOL

 

[croaker]

Keys got the -1.5.

It wasn't a cake walk, Putintseva played pretty good.

Record now

27-15

+798 ROI +12.2%

PS

Thiem Zverev match which is still in progress. I thought it was a soft line as the odds were so far off other matches with similar analytics, however after watching Zverev regularly grab his hamstring from game 2, I'm pretty sure there was some knowledge that he was going into the match carrying an injury or not 100% fit. So sadly Zverev bettors burnt their money before the match had even started. Thiem is just batting the ball a couple of times and winning the points.

 

[indiana]

croaker...…….nice call with Keys...……..indy

 

[croaker]

Last nights matches

I skipped through the replay of the Kasatkina Stephens match and it looked like one way traffic.

The early line opened up as almost 50/50, [which makes me feel better about the time I put into my capping model], Stephens initially moved out but got steam as the match got closer to end up closing a clear favorite.

For the Zverev match the Pinny early line opened at +100 which is consistent with the stats, but quickly jumped out to +150 which is consistent with some people having knowledge about an injury. Note to self "Be careful of odds that look too good to be true.., if you don't understand the reason for a big gap between expected and actual odds be careful ". This match was a good example of the lines providing info.

The line move was a quick jump at open rather than late steam.

Everyone who bet on Thiem, at the books that void bets in case of retirement, will be eternally grateful that Zverev chose to risk aggravating his hammy further and complete the match. He was grabbing his hammy from game 2 indicating that he was carrying the injury in, and it didn't occur after the match started. He said when questioned afterwards that the injury occurred during the match and first noticed it in game 4, and he didn't pull out in respect to his opponent, and that he thought it might get better as the match progressed. IMO the line movement is more reliable than Zverev's comments about the timing off the injury.

“I thought about it. I definitely thought about it, but, you know, I didn't want to pull out for the first time of my career in a Grand Slam quarterfinal,” Zverev continued.

“So, you know, I knew I'm not going to win the match. There was no way for me. I mean, I could barely move. I couldn't serve. I couldn't really do anything.
“But I still wanted to finish the match and, you know, kind of give the credit to Dominic. He deserves to be in the semi-finals.”

The Frog translator reads it as "I knew I was carrying an injury going in, had no chance to win, and while risking aggravating the injury by completing the match, I just want to you to know that I wish to avoid any potential liability relating to sports betting patterns"

Big contrast to Djoko's reaction after to losing to Cecc......

For the Djoko match the opening and closing lines stayed around the same, Djoko just had a clunker.

I'm not complaining, its just another thing to take into account. It shows why NFL and NBA have mandatory injury reporting.

The remaining 2 QF's tonight


Halep vs Kerber

I have comfortable win for Halep. The Halep line has moved in already since opening from -175 to -222, so early bettors think Halep is better than the stats indicate. This seems to be a reliable betting pattern for Halep matches.

No bet as yet. But will look for value in Halep lines or maybe Kerber +1.5 sets currently -115.


Mugu vs Sharapova

I get a comfortable win for Mugu.

Lines haven't moved since open so no-one jumping on a side early.

What I am going to do for this match is place a bet to win $50 at the current line of -114 and add another bet to win $50 at the line closer to closing. I'll post the odds after I place and then calculate the average line for the bet and use that for the record.


BOL

 

[croaker]

Added the extra on Mugu at -126. So the total is $120 to win $100.

The Mugu line has come in a little.

Haleps line has stayed the same.

BOL

 

[croaker]

Happily they played the girls games first so I can get some sleep. I'm still struggling with my capping model, I can replicate most of the odds to win first set, but not sure if I am missing something or over complicating it.... Sleep will help..

Mugu won 2-0.

Halep and Kerber looks like it will be close. I'll watch the replay when I wake up.

Record now

28-15

+898 +13.4%

 

[varkeyboy]

I freaking LOVE Auckland! Came there in 2013 for a 3 week vacation. Flew from Chicago --> Auckland --> Brisbane --> Sydney --> Melbourne.

I have a ton of family in Melbourne, that was the main purpose of the visit. Had a really good time when i was in Auckland for 3 nights/4 days. Did the Sky Tower tour, volcano tours, hit up some nice bars & clubs. Everyone did tell me about the South Island and what i was missing out on. Next time, for sure.

BTW, great call on Muzu!

 

[varkeyboy]

No Men's action today?

 

[croaker]

Thanks Varkey

I'm really enjoying watching the tennis, its a pity it has been starting so late NZ time and I usually go to sleep just when it starts to get interesting.

I think the mens lines are pretty tight and don't feel confident trying to cap the spreads atm, especially over 5 sets.

Tonight's girls matches

Halep vs Mugu

I just took Halep ML at +105

Halep opened -110 and then moved out to +112 before coming back in a little.

I see Halep as comfortable winner, the QF's went as expected based on my maths so unless there is something unknown I think the line is value.

Hopefully the odds are due to recency bias....


Keys vs Stephens

I see this as close to 50/50 with Sloane have a small edge, The oddsmakers and early bettors see it differently Keys opened +152 immediately dropped down to +134 before steadily moving out to +160.

Not sure how to bet this yet.

BOL

 

[croaker]

PS

I have hand a good run on the Japanese doubles pair Hozumi and Ninomiya, they've now won 3 in a row at good odds. They play very nicely, always look happy and cheerful [although they did look serious at match point vs Mladenovic and Babos], and keep their composure under pressure. I think they have a good shot of beating Wang and Chan to make the final. They are only +138 atm but good be value if they go down a break or a set. For entertainment purposes only.

 

[croaker]

Halep line moved out a little then back in closer to the start of match.

Keys line has moved out as well, seems like only a few days ago that Giorgi served twice for the match only to come up short each time.

Slaone holds a 2-0 advantage H2H and she played well in her last game, whereas Madison struggled against the plucky Kazak girl [who IMO is better than advertised].

With Halep I have her winning this 60% of time and getting coin toss odds.

With Slaone and Keys my numbers have them at almost exactly 50% odds. So I guess Keys at +168 is good value in a flip.

However, there is a big gap between the opening odds and my numbers, and the gap has widened.

So I can't pull the trigger on Keys so sadly pass.....

Joe Maddon says when in doubt err on the side of aggression, so I am fading him and erring on the side of caution....

If you want to watch good doubles match, no grunting, tantrums, or other strategic behaviour the Hozumi-Ninomiya match tomorrow would be worth a look.

 

[varkeyboy]

PS

I have hand a good run on the Japanese doubles pair Hozumi and Ninomiya, they've now won 3 in a row at good odds. They play very nicely, always look happy and cheerful [although they did look serious at match point vs Mladenovic and Babos], and keep their composure under pressure. I think they have a good shot of beating Wang and Chan to make the final. They are only +138 atm but good be value if they go down a break or a set. For entertainment purposes only.

+140 now.....

 

[varkeyboy]

Thanks Varkey

I'm really enjoying watching the tennis, its a pity it has been starting so late NZ time and I usually go to sleep just when it starts to get interesting.

I think the mens lines are pretty tight and don't feel confident trying to cap the spreads atm, especially over 5 sets.

Tonight's girls matches

Halep vs Mugu

I just took Halep ML at +105

Halep opened -110 and then moved out to +112 before coming back in a little.

I see Halep as comfortable winner, the QF's went as expected based on my maths so unless there is something unknown I think the line is value.

Hopefully the odds are due to recency bias....


Keys vs Stephens

I see this as close to 50/50 with Sloane have a small edge, The oddsmakers and early bettors see it differently Keys opened +152 immediately dropped down to +134 before steadily moving out to +160.

Not sure how to bet this yet.

BOL

You called these matches perfectly!

I slammed HALEP, but didn't get a chance to post it in time unfortunately. Glad she's moving on. She deserves a GS Title the most.