Update
Peng got a set but couldn't finish it off so I ended up 1-2 for the night. Which is sad but not total disaster. Well done to all the Serena backers, lol Barty.
Didn't see Serena's or Peng's game, I made it to the start of the 3rd set of the Nadal match before crashing. I set an alarm for the start of Serena's match but slept through it and only just woke up.
Nice to see Serena won and Peng got a set of Garcia but couldn't finish the job in the 3rd.
Serena's future odds to win the tourney have come in to +1175 which mean's her implied odds for each of the 5 remaining games has gone out from -200 to -150 which is not what you would expect after she beat Barty, the world's number 17 player, a much better than Kr Pliskova. So much for the efficient market hypothesis for sports betting markets lol. IMO Serena will continue to improve with each match so theoretically her odds should decrease with each win rather than go out. Books were either previously offering a very bad future line on Serena or there is value in the current line. Most likely there were a lot of future bets on Serena pre tourney with bad lines or very high vig so Pinny can still profitably improve their ROI by taking bets at better odds.
My assumption is that Pinny don't try and pick winners but just use maths to maximize their ROI for each match. From what I can calculate, from the ML lines and limits they offer, their strategy is to basically break even when the favorites win and cash when the dogs get there. Provided they can get a lot of action, which they probably do as they offer the best lines, it would be a pretty good business model.
Betting markets get a lot of bad press, but academically they are now referred to as wisdom of the crowd, and are considered better estimators of outcomes of events than polls or other metrics. Trump election, Brexic are examples are examples of where betting markets or crowd wisdom outperformed the so called scientific polls. So technically we are no longer classified as degen gamblers but are participating in the crowd wisdom process for sporting events. There is actually a whole academic field relating to this now.
Anyway enough waffle, record now
20-11
+691 +13.0% ROI
PS
I've had quick look at closing line performance vs outcome. For the 31 matches I've bet I have beaten the closing line 17/31 or 65%. Of these 60% have gone on to win which is a lower % than the 65% overall win rate. The sample size is low but so far no evidence that closing line performance is important in picking winners at least for me. Hopefully I will stay profitable long enough to get a statistically valid sample size.
PPS
If interested I have taken Julia Glushko over Kai-Lin Zhang in the semi final of the ITF Hua-Hin in Thailand at -147 on Pinny, she's not far off WTA class, Kai-Lin is a solid player but basically a barrier [ie she won't get better but the sort of player you have to be able to beat to be able to survive at the next level]. The market is limited at 600 Euro's, so won't take much action to move the price. Glushko rolled her ankle while leading in her first match but was able to continue to close out the match. She crushed her opponents in her next 2 matches.
