Roland Garros WTA

[croaker]

Record brought forward

9-5

+120 +5.5%



Some early bets where I think the line may move.

Buza -1.5 sets over King -275

Complacency only risk for Buza here. Possible double bagel? King ranked 1276.


Krunic over Peng -210

Peng has been injured and didn't look good last outing. Has been good player and has decent ranking but looks to be on the way out.


Rybarikova over Kumkhum -252

Kumkhum has decent ranking but has had only one good win. Luksika has been farming points in Asia against soft competition and I don't think she has more than a 5% chance of winning this. I'll be amazed if this line doesn't drop.

Makarova over Saisai Zheng -200

Saisai has been playing with injury and hasn't had much tennis in last month, Makarova is a little below the top girls but should be better than a hobbled Zheng.

 

[croaker]

16 matches tonight.

I've finally had some luck in Asia and gone 4-0 in past 2 days including 2 dogs.

So far I have the 4 plays posted above with only Saisai's match tonight, Makarovas line has improved to -190 [now -188]. There is money coming in on Saisai. She struggled with the pace of the court and with movement. I would like Saisai as a dog in this spot if she was healthy and had a few more recent games on clay.

So adding a couple

Kuzmova over Schiavone -161

Kuzmova is coming of a win in Trnava, her home event, where she beat Larsson [who went on to win Nurnberg] so is in good form. Schiavone has been on a losing streak but plays better on clay. Kuzmova took the week off so she should be good to go. Not a gimme but value.

Qian Wang over Venus +173

Venus beat Qian in a very close match in last year's FO.

Wouldn't take much for Qian to get over the line here. If Venus is on her A game will be tough but Qian has been playing well. Both can play on clay.


BOL

 

[croaker]

Good start to the tourney last night.

The 3 girls all won in straight sets.

The ines on Strykova and Venus moved against me, Saisai and Venus both got late money and Wang and Sktrylova closed at +209 and -168 respectively. The Kuzmova line came into -185 with late money as well.

So updated record.

12-5

+420 ROI +15%

 

[croaker]

For tonights matches still have

Buza -1.5 sets
Krunic over peng
Ryberikova over Kumkhum

adding

Begu over Schmiedlova -192
Stosur over Wickmeyer -250

Pliskova -1.5 sets over Krejcikova -250

Pliskova had a bad beat in Rome, the line judge and match umpire both called a ball out at a crucial stage near the end of the match. The looked for the mark but couldn't find it as they were looking on the line, when the ball bounced about 3 inches inside the line. Everyone at the court knew it was in [including the opponent] apart from the 2 people paid to watch it.

I don't think Pliskova will be putting herself in any close call situations again, as Dana White says don't leave it in the hands of the judges, So I like the 2-0.

And for some value Su-Wei Hsieh over Petersen +118, the line has already moved in from +133.



BOL

NB all bets sizes are to win $100, so if odds are -200, I bet 200, if odds are +200 I bet $50.

 

[croaker]

Su-Wei let me down but Buza, Rybarikova, and Pliskova came through each winning 2-0.

Still to play Stosur, Krunic, and Begu.

So record now.

15-6

+635 +17%

 

[croaker]

Line on Stosur has moved in to -323, Krunic is still the same and Begu has moved out to -169


Adding one more.

Pavlyuchenkova -164 over Hercog

Pavly played great against Cibulkova in the Strasbourg final but seemed to have a slight injury. She saved a couple of match points with a little help from the line judge but deserved the win. I didn't bet her earlier because of the injury but she finished the match OK and has had a few days to recover.



A possible dog

Kr Pliskova over Serena if line gets close to +200 and I am still awake to place the bet, will post if I do. It will be Serena's first game on CLay for 2 years and Pliskova is playing pretty well atm. I ended up taking Siniakova last night over Azarenka as the line moved from +165 to +200 but was too late to post here so not included in record. Also the line for Quiang Wang moved out to +209 from +173 against Venus and I expect money to come in on Serena closer to match time.


BOL

 

[asiansdude]

Good Job Thankyou)(&

 

[croaker]

No sweat asiansdude.

OK results 3-1 for small profit for the day.

I crashed waiting for the end of the Nadal/Bolelli match so didn't the end of Begu's match, but she was making hard work of it, she had a racket smashing outburst near the end of the 2nd set after she had been cruising, but looks like she got her head straight just in time after being down 2 breaks and 2-5 in the 3rd.

I'm not sure what the close was for Krystina but the last time I checked she was +178 which was not enough to get me interested.


Stosur cruised and won stress free and Pavly won 2-0 as well.

Peng looked back to good health after looking hobbled in her last 6 or 7 matches, I woke up just in time to see Krunic save 3 match points only to lose. I would have liked to have seen a couple more games.

So record now

18-7

+725 +16% ROI

 

[croaker]

Still find it hard to take in the Kozlova beat Ostapenko.

Watching Siniakova vs A

Shes good on clay but find it hard to see how she can been Siniakova. Siniakova played great against Azarenka in the first set. Aza was playing great until she gassed in the second.
Will look to take Siniakova at -250 opened at -303 now -278.

Adding

Buza -152

Buza pretty much owns Peterson with a 2-0 record and is playing best tennis of her career, I'm happy to take the line now.

Watching Quiang Wang vs Martic

Quiang Wang vs Martic looks like it will be close. Wang currently +159 will take if line goes out.

Not certain but IMO value. Both players are just below the top tier and Qiang played well against Venus and Martic beat Yafan Wang comfortably as expected.

Adding Giorgi over Marino - 189

Marino has had 4 matches going through qualifying, but didn't face anyone with Giorgis power. Giorgi had a good warm up against Min in the first round.

Adding Navarro over Sakkari - 185

Sakkari was the player who got the bad call which helped her beat Ka Pliskova. She knew the ball was in and offered to replay the point which is not an option, it was a tough spot for and it was not her fault that the paid referees missed the call. She then got destroyed by Kerber in her next match.

Sakkari looks a bit like Rambo and plays like it as well.

Will update with Siniakova and Qiang lines later.

 

[croaker]

No line movement so I will pass on Wang and Siniakova.

Buza's line moved out to -133 but has come back in a little.

Looks rain will be playing a role again tonight, hopefully Buza can get through her early game before it starts.

BOL

 

[varkeyboy]

Good luck!

 

[croaker]

2-1 for the night.

Buza and Giorgi both won comfortably, each dropping only 3 games.

Navarro went down in 2, I woke up briefly in time to see her serving for set 1 at 5-4 only to lose it 7-5. Didn't see 2nd set.

The matches I passed on both won. Siniakova won in a 3 set battle and Qiang cruise only dropping 2 games, Siniakova's line didn't move out and Qiang's line went out to +170 which would have been nice but I didn't survive the Dhuzmur/Albot match end up going to 5 sets after Dhuzmur was up 2-0 and cruising. Matches have been starting here at 9pm.

So record now

20-8

+740 +14.8%

Sample size is still pretty low but I will analyze closing line performance and model different staking strategies once it gets larger and if I haven'y gonr broke.

Also I bet on Asian Womens tennis and Pinny offers lines and a lot of the matches are streamed, I may start a thread specific for these matches.

 

[croaker]

Good luck!

Thanks Varky

I'm still hanging in there....

 

[billyskillzz]

hi croaker,, i wanted to ask your opinion on SERENA WILLIAMS NEXT MATCH , she is underdog and cant see her losing . i know she hasnt played much but she is still the greatest and is a champion . i dont think i ever saw her as an underdog in a match . please give me your professional insight on this match please . thanks billyskillzz

 

[billyskillzz]

hey CROAKER ???

 

[croaker]

Lol

I am not pro, but anyway my 2c on Serena match. I didn't see the match but I have seen reports.

Serena beat Kr Pliskova in a close match and the narrative is that she is done and people have been making jokes about her appearance.

Barty was bet down from +odds after the line opened.

My view is that she is a little short on matches and will improve if she can progress through the tournament. Serena has not played on clay for a couple of years. It will take her a match or 2 to get used to the pace.

Barty is better than Pliskova and is deserved favorite. I see it as close to a flip. Serena is a warrior and won't go down without a fight.

Pinny early line has Serena at +108 and Bart at -120.

Full markets are not open yet, lines will no doubt move once they fully open, I expect Serena line to come back a little, and then come in a lot shortly before the match. So if I was going to bet her I would take the current line.

My view is that despite being outplayed by Kr Pliskova she was able to hang in and find a way to win, she should improve from that match.

I wouldn't bet this except for rooting interest as there are too many unknown variables, I see her sort of like a wild card. I would be more than happy to take Serena against a slighter weaker opponent at these odds, but I would have been happy to take Barty at plus odds here.

If she can get past Barty she should be favorite to beat Goerges then either Ka Pliskova or Sharapova and end up in a semi against Halep, so there may be value in some sort of future.

Serena is +1360 to win the tourney which is like -189 average for each of the next 6 matches. If you take out this match the average odds for the next 5 matches would be -200.

BOL

 

[billyskillzz]

Thanks my friend .. Keep up your winning ways

 

[croaker]

You to.

Good luck with Serena I hope she wins.

 

[croaker]

Tonight's matches 31/5/2018

IMO a lot of the games are a lot more evenly matched than the odds indicate. So I am passing on a quite few unless the odds for the favorites improve.

Anyway

Adding

Gavrilova over Pera -128

Gavrilova had an ugly win over Cirstea but I like players who can grind out wins when it's not going all their own way,

Also Pera should be easier than Cristea and you are getting better odds.

Pavly over Stosur -148

Stosur beat Pavly at Madrid, but Pavly is playing really well atm.

Petkovic over Mattek-Sands

Peng over Garcia +481

Im not a full Peng believer yet but at +481 Im happy to risk $20.

Peng holds a 2-1 H2H over Garcia and seems to be improving with every match, not the same player that was struggling a few months ago. Not certain but better than thin value.

Playing on one of the main court's in front of a partisan home crowd for Garcia won't be a problem for Peng, may put pressure on Garcia if she falls behind.


Watching

Rybarikova/Bencic - Bencic as dog? +178

Bencic hasn't played much on clay, only 2 matches in past 2 years, probably a reason. Has beaten Goerges and Pavly on clay a few years ago though. Has beaten some good players this year but not consistent.

Rybarikova doesn't look unbeatable and the match is closer to a flip than a -200

Begu over Shuai Zhang? close call??

Begu is better player on clay but finds it difficult to maintain peak effort/concentration for entire match. Zhang is pretty consistent.

Begu lost the plot after cruising for nearly 2 sets against Schmiedlova, a worse player than Zhang, took her about 6 games to get back on track.

I'll probably go the opposite way to how the odds move.


BOL

PS Serena has come in a little to +100 now.

PPS I'm still not a winning player yet, if I can stay above 10% ROI over 200 matches 1) it will be remarkable and 2) I will be very pleased.

 

[indiana]

croaker...……..BOL with your action...…...indy