Rhinooooo's Soccer Plays

[rhinooooo]

Small plays for the UEFA Cup:

Espanyol vs. Livorno +0.75 @ 1.86
Betfair - 1unit

Osasuna-0.5 vs. Bordeaux @ 2.03
Betfair - 1unit

Blackburn-0.5 vs. Leverkusen @ 1.99
Betfair - 1unit

Celta Vigo-0.5 vs. Spartak Moscow @ 1.92
Betfair - 1unit

 

[rhinooooo]

Small plays for the UEFA Cup:

Espanyol vs. Livorno +0.75 @ 1.86
Betfair - 1unit (2-0) LOST -1

Osasuna-0.5 vs. Bordeaux @ 2.03
Betfair - 1unit (0-0) LOST -1

Blackburn-0.5 vs. Leverkusen @ 1.99
Betfair - 1unit (0-0) LOST -1

Celta Vigo-0.5 vs. Spartak Moscow @ 1.92
Betfair - 1unit (2-1) WON +0.92

-2.08

2007 YTD: 80-70-9 (+19.96)

 

[BronxCheer+]

shouldnt you stop posting your picks untill you get a better %% of winnings?

 

[rhinooooo]

shouldnt you stop posting your picks untill you get a better %% of winnings?

Eh?

Sorry bro, not quite sure if I understand your question. The way you put it makes it seem like an insult.

It's not necessarily the winning percentage, but the unit profit. Seeing as footie lines aren't like the 5/10cent lines in American sports. In footie getting odds over evens is very common, so the winning percentage doesn't need to be great. I was complete shite last year, but I'm very happy so far this year, and as long as I'm in profit I will be.

 

[BronxCheer+]

No harm intended but to me its about winning my picks as well, I undertsand the percentages yet I like to hit as many picks as I can

 

[rhinooooo]

No harm intended but to me its about winning my picks as well, I undertsand the percentages yet I like to hit as many picks as I can

Ahh, I understand your point. You're going about betting from a different angle than mine. The whole winning percentage is only an issue if you're playing 5/10cent lines. The point is hitting over 50% just to break even and to take account of the juice. I guess it also depends on your money management, and unit size etc.

There's a guy on another football forum I visit whose winning percentage must have been as low as 35-40%. He's the best bettor I've seen. He made $300,000 in a year from a starting bankroll of $30,000. His strategy is simple... find value in underdogs. Tennis, NFL Dog MoneyLines, Golf etc can offer up some great opportunities to bet on odds way over evens. Others can have their winning percentages of 65% etc, but they won't have made nearly as much money.

I pick games that I believe have some sort of value to me. Linesmakers don't get their odds wrong. Especially in football. But you end up using your own criteria to judge the probability of an event occurring, and then stake money based on the value that you find.

That's how I'm going about my footie betting. I'm playing alot of games. I'm bound to have bad days, but I'm happy with the progress I've made. I know you didn't mean to cause offence but you don't go into another persons thread and tell them to stop posting picks because they're winning percentage isn't high enough. Otherwise, you'd be scouring all the betting forums on the net and making a post every second.

 

[BronxCheer+]

Understood and congrats on the winnings yet to me its about how many picks you may hit in a day, and if you are not sure then not to post it, i rarely put my picks on the forums but if you check the other day i did on Tapa Roscas thread, if I would have lost more picks than won I would never post again, just my two cents

 

[rhinooooo]

Fair point Angel. We've got different goals.

Adding:
Bayern vs. Wolfsburg +1.25 @ 1.88
Betfair - 2.5units

Bayern vs. Wolfsburg - OVER 2.5 @ 1.84
Betfair - 2.5units

Mainz vs. Nurnberg PK @ 2.03
Betfair - 2.5units

 

[rhinooooo]

Adding:
Colchester-0.5 vs. Burnley @ 2.04
Betfair - 2.5units

Hull vs. Birmingham-0.5 @ 2.08
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Norwich vs. Coventry +0.5 @ 1.78
Betfair - 2.5units

QPR vs. Plymouth PK @ 2.06
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Sunderland -0.5 vs. Derby @ 2
Betfair - 2.5units

Crystal Palace vs. Luton +0.5 @ 2.05
Betfair - 2.5units

Wolves -0.75 vs. Leeds @ 1.99
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Middlesbrough vs. Reading - OVER 2.5 @ 1.98
Betfair - 2.5units

Toulouse PK vs. Marseille @ 2.09
Pinnacle - 2.5units

 

[rhinooooo]

Adding:

PSV vs. Groningen +1.75 @ 1.87
Betfair - 2.5units

Twente vs. Willem II - OVER 3 @ 1.82
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Lyon vs. Sochaux +1.25 @ 1.87
Betfair - 2.5units

Nantes vs. Auxerre PK @ 2.28
Betfair - 2.5units

Rennes -0.5 vs. Sedan @ 1.95
Betfair - 2.5units

Troyes vs. Lorient +0.25 @ 2
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Sociedad vs. Deportivo +0.25 @ 1.76
Betfair - 2.5units

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid - OVER 2 @ 1.847
Pinnacle - 2.5units

 

[rhinooooo]

Bayern vs. Wolfsburg +1.25 @ 1.88
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) PUSH/WON +1.1

Bayern vs. Wolfsburg - OVER 2.5 @ 1.84
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) WON +2.1

Mainz vs. Nurnberg PK @ 2.03
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) LOST -2.5

Colchester-0.5 vs. Burnley @ 2.04
Betfair - 2.5units (0-0) LOST -2.5

Hull vs. Birmingham-0.5 @ 2.08
Pinnacle - 2.5units (2-0) LOST -2.5

Norwich vs. Coventry +0.5 @ 1.78
Betfair - 2.5units (1-1) WON +1.95

QPR vs. Plymouth PK @ 2.06
Pinnacle - 2.5units (1-1) PUSH

Sunderland -0.5 vs. Derby @ 2
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) WON +2.5

Crystal Palace vs. Luton +0.5 @ 2.05
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) LOST -2.5

Wolves -0.75 vs. Leeds @ 1.99
Pinnacle - 2.5units (1-0) PUSH/WON +1.24

Middlesbrough vs. Reading - OVER 2.5 @ 1.98
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) WON +2.45

Toulouse PK vs. Marseille @ 2.09
Pinnacle - 2.5units (3-0) WON +2.72

PSV vs. Groningen +1.75 @ 1.87
Betfair - 2.5units (1-0) WON +2.17

Twente vs. Willem II - OVER 3 @ 1.82
Pinnacle - 2.5units (0-0) LOST -2.5

Lyon vs. Sochaux +1.25 @ 1.87
Betfair - 2.5units (3-3) WON +2.17

Nantes vs. Auxerre PK @ 2.28
Betfair - 2.5units (1-1) PUSH

Rennes -0.5 vs. Sedan @ 1.95
Betfair - 2.5units (0-2) LOST -2.5

Troyes vs. Lorient +0.25 @ 2
Pinnacle - 2.5units (3-0) LOST -2.5

Sociedad vs. Deportivo +0.25 @ 1.76
Betfair - 2.5units (0-1) WON +1.9

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid - OVER 2 @ 1.847
Pinnacle - 2.5units (1-1) PUSH

+2.8

2007 YTD: 90-77-12 (+22.76)

 

[themadactuarian]

+2.8

2007 YTD: 90-77-12 (+22.76)

R, that is quite the record. why even unit play? If you
have a best best(s) at higher units you could be up almost double IMO. Am I wrong in this analysis?

MA

 

[rhinooooo]

R, that is quite the record. why even unit play? If you
have a best best(s) at higher units you could be up almost double IMO. Am I wrong in this analysis?

MA

Thanks mate. You're completely right. I notice how you've made more profit in a day than I have this year to date. That's with limiting your plays, and spreading your units. But, I'm shit when it comes to that. When I limited my plays to a few games, and made some higher units than others, I was losing badly and starting getting pissed because had I played all my leans I'd be in profit.

I played 20 games today for a profit of 2.8units. That's not a great return for that risk, but I'm happy grinding out the profit at this time. I've decided to just go with my instincts, play my leans for 2.5units in league games, and generally 1 unit in cup games if I want some action. I'm just trying to get a bit more confident and notice what leagues, and types of bets I'm doing best in, and at some point soon I'll change it up, play fewer games and do it for higher units.

But for now, I'm just happy to be in any kind of profit in football.

 

[rhinooooo]

Cagliari vs. Lazio PK @ 1.77
Betfair - 2.5units

Catania vs. Inter-1 @ 1.88
Betfair - 2.5units

Fiorentina vs. Empoli +1 @ 1.746
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Livorno vs. Ascoli - OVER 2.25 @ 2
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Roma vs. Reggina +1.25 @ 1.78
Betfair - 2.5units

Messina vs. Siena PK @ 2.25
Betfair - 2.5units

PSG vs. St Etienne +0.5 @ 2.07
Betfair - 2.5units

Bordeaux vs. Valenciennes +0.5 @ 1.91
Betfair - 2.5units

Lens vs. Nancy - OVER 2.25 @ 2.09
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Levante vs. Zaragoza PK @ 1.901
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Celta Vigo vs. Santander +0.25 @ 1.89
Betfair - 2.5units

Osasuna -0.25 vs. Espanyol @ 2
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Gimnastic vs. Valencia -1 @ 2.07
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Villarreal vs. Mallorca +0.5 @ 1.89
Betfair - 2.5units

 

[rhinooooo]

Cagliari vs. Lazio PK @ 1.77
Betfair - 2.5units (0-2) WON +1.92

Catania vs. Inter-1 @ 1.88
Betfair - 2.5units (2-5) WON +2.2

Fiorentina vs. Empoli +1 @ 1.746
Pinnacle - 2.5units (2-0) LOST -2.5

Livorno vs. Ascoli - OVER 2.25 @ 2
Pinnacle - 2.5units (0-0) LOST -2.5

Roma vs. Reggina +1.25 @ 1.78
Betfair - 2.5units (3-0) LOST -2.5

Messina vs. Siena PK @ 2.25
Betfair - 2.5units (1-0) LOST -2.5

PSG vs. St Etienne +0.5 @ 2.07
Betfair - 2.5units (0-2) WON +2.67

Bordeaux vs. Valenciennes +0.5 @ 1.91
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) LOST -2.5

Lens vs. Nancy - OVER 2.25 @ 2.09
Pinnacle - 2.5units (2-2) WON +2.72

Levante vs. Zaragoza PK @ 1.901
Pinnacle - 2.5units (0-0) PUSH

Celta Vigo vs. Santander +0.25 @ 1.89
Betfair - 2.5units (2-2) PUSH/WON +1.11

Osasuna -0.25 vs. Espanyol @ 2
Pinnacle - 2.5units (0-2) LOST -2.5

Gimnastic vs. Valencia -1 @ 2.07
Pinnacle - 2.5units (1-1) LOST -2.5

Villarreal vs. Mallorca +0.5 @ 1.89
Betfair - 2.5units (2-1) LOST -2.5

-9.38
Ouch... Poor day. hno:

2007 YTD: 95-85-12 (+13.38)

 

[rhinooooo]

Siena vs. Livorno - OVER 2.25 @ 2.03
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Chievo vs. Roma -0.5 @ 2.13
Betfair - 2.5units

Sampdoria vs. Atalanta +0.5 @ 1.735
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Reggina vs. Fiorentina -0.25 @ 1.88
Betfair - 2.5units

Palermo vs. Milan - OVER 2.5 @ 2.1
Betfair - 2.5units

Lazio -1 vs. Catania @ 1.89
Betfair - 2.5units

Empoli -0.5 vs. Messina @ 1.76
Betfair - 2.5units

 

[themadactuarian]

Siena vs. Livorno - OVER 2.25 @ 2.03
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Chievo vs. Roma -0.5 @ 2.13
Betfair - 2.5units

Sampdoria vs. Atalanta +0.5 @ 1.735
Pinnacle - 2.5units

Reggina vs. Fiorentina -0.25 @ 1.88
Betfair - 2.5units

Palermo vs. Milan - OVER 2.5 @ 2.1
Betfair - 2.5units

Lazio -1 vs. Catania @ 1.89
Betfair - 2.5units

Empoli -0.5 vs. Messina @ 1.76
Betfair - 2.5units

Good luck R, I like your balanced and non-volatile card.

MA

 

[rhinooooo]

Good luck R, I like your balanced and non-volatile card.

MA

Thanks mate. Alot of favourites for me today. It's never safe in Serie A though. I tailed you on the Livorno over. They concede alot away.

Good luck today.

 

[MrCleo]

Rhino, how do these italian squads secure a Champions leage spot next year? by finishing in the top four? thanks in advance

 

[rhinooooo]

Rhino, how do these italian squads secure a Champions leage spot next year? by finishing in the top four? thanks in advance

Yep. It's the top four.

Top two get an automatic qualification, whilst 3rd and 4th get entered into a qualifications round where they'll most likely get an easy game against the champions of Moldova or some random shit like that.