Like snoop said, I don't really like Cup games much. I have leans on Norwich+2 at Chelsea. This depends on team news though. Snoop said it aswell, Chelsea have some big matches coming up in the next week. They've got the Champions League second round tie against Porto, and the Carling Cup Final against Arsenal. They might be resting a few big players.
Joeyfitzclick posted that Reading will be fielding a reserve side. So, Man Utd -1.5 might be good. Man Utd will most likely be doing the same, so team news is necessary.
Had a lean on West Brom +0.5 and the Over 2.5 in their game at Middlesbrough but Jonathan Woodgate and a few others may be back for Boro, so I'll be leaving that.
Nothing really sticks out to me in the Cup this week. My leans are dependent on team news. Good luck with whatever you pick guys.
Joeyfitzclick posted that Reading will be fielding a reserve side. So, Man Utd -1.5 might be good. Man Utd will most likely be doing the same, so team news is necessary.
Had a lean on West Brom +0.5 and the Over 2.5 in their game at Middlesbrough but Jonathan Woodgate and a few others may be back for Boro, so I'll be leaving that.
Nothing really sticks out to me in the Cup this week. My leans are dependent on team news. Good luck with whatever you pick guys.
Thanks mate!
I live in the UK so gambling is legal, and not subject to taxes. Thankfully, that means I'm able to bet anywhere I want. I stick to online books, and my favourites are
-Pinnacle (generally better odds than most, and the ability to buy points)
-Betfair (Betting exchange, but its only available to people in Europe. Despite the commission, you can find much better odds than most fixed-odds sportsbooks.)
I check out Stan James, 10Bet, and Ladbrokes for an occasional pick as they'll often have a few good lines.
If you can play at Pinnacle, definitely go for it. They are expanding their soccer markets, and offering more props and options.
cant believe ajax tieduke1:
Unbelievable stuff. At home against bloody Excelsior Rotterdam!
This youtube clip of QPR vs. Watford from last year basically sums up what football is like...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvP_xM5p_20
There are so many variables in football that make it really bad for a gambler. The human element of the ref and officials giving a bad decision, a missed offside, not seeing a ball over the line or wrongly awarding a penalty etc. There's so much. But, it balances it out. I'm not surprised by ANYTHING in footie anymore. Last week, of the matches that I'd lost, I had around 5 penalties go against me. I was cursing my luck especially because I read that two of the penalties were dives. Another team I bet on that ended up losing got a penalty but MISSED!
In the week, I had 4 bets on 3 games. I had penalties go my way in all 3 including a 90th minute penalty for Lens that got me a cover giving me profit.
Yesterday, I had a good day. The wins were normal, but I suffered two losses that highlight the unpredicability of the game. I bet on Siena+0.75 vs. Milan. It was 2-2 at the half. Milan had a player sent off but scored straight after. Siena equalise in the 90th minute! THEN... MILAN SCORE AGAIN IN THE 95th!!!
Schalke also managed to blow a 2-0 loss by conceding in the 89th minute. Things even out.
I've been tracking the big favourites, and moneyline parlays on big faves in football. They're a losing proposition. The one thing I always find hard in footie, because its the sport I love most, is to bet against the big guns. I have my own biases, and preconceptions that often stopped me betting against them.
All the top teams have underperformed completely this season. Currently, bookies must be making a fortune because:
Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool, Ajax, PSV, Lyon, Roma, Milan, Bayern, Madrid, Sevilla, Werder Bremen and Barcelona have had some big periods of poor form. That's not too odd, but for nearly all of these faves to be struggling in the same time period is just crazy.
Adding for English Championship:
Birmingham vs. Sunderland +0.25 @ +107
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Coventry vs. Southampton -0.25 @ +106
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Leeds vs. QPR - OVER 2.5 @ +104
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Plymouth -0.25 vs. Colchester @ -112
Pinnacle - 2.8units
West Brom -1 vs. Cardiff @ +115
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Birmingham vs. Sunderland +0.25 @ +107
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Coventry vs. Southampton -0.25 @ +106
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Leeds vs. QPR - OVER 2.5 @ +104
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Plymouth -0.25 vs. Colchester @ -112
Pinnacle - 2.8units
West Brom -1 vs. Cardiff @ +115
Pinnacle - 2.5units
Whenever I see that clip now, I think about Hamburg. A couple of weeks ago I read that the goals at their ground were too small. Apparently the goalposts had sunk a bit, and the crossbar was lower than it should have been. Can you imagine if a team was cost 3 points, promotion, relegation, a CUP... or more importantly A GAMBLERS MONEY was lost because of a small goal!!!
Adding:
Lille vs. Man Utd -0.5 @ 2.04
Betfair - 2.5units
Thanks mate. I also think the CL totals are too low, but I'm keeping my units low as anything can happen in that crazy competition...
As for Derby. I have noticed some odd line movement. Derby were -0.75 last night. They're -0.5 tonight. They only have one serious injury problem in defence whereas Stoke have no fit attackers, and will be giving a debut to a youngster. Haven't been able to find out why the line changed. So, I'm hoping this comes through for both of us.
Good luck tonight!
