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Reasonable Sports Picks (NFL)
- Thread starter Friend_of_the_People
- Start date
4 Chiefs +1.5
Denver is a great team they are 2nd only to NE in the AFC and even then there isn't a significant gap between the two teams. Everyone had the Chiefs last last week at home. Every service play I came across that included this game was on KC. The Chiefs disappointed but the Broncos offense was excellent, KC offense isn't built to come from behind by multiple touchdowns. This Arizona offense isn't anything close to Denver's I expect KC to be able to keep pace in this one. Arizona boasts the league's 6th best run defense but they aren't dominate, here are how the run defense has done against decent-good rushing teams: 29 carries for 124 yards(Seattle) 25 carries 92 yards(Dallas), 26 carries for 110 yards(Philly), 23 carries for 82 yards (SF), 34 carries 142 yards(last week ATL), 19 carries 98 yards (Det). Arizona can have a dominant run defense against one dimensional offense but not against more complete offenses with competent QB's. The offense's Arizona has had the most success against are, unsurprisingly, one dimensional teams like: Shaun Hill and the Rams twice, rookie Derek Carr and the Raiders, the Giants(no running game), Washington, and SD(poor running game). Arguably the three highest touted defenders for Arizona are Calais Cambell, Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie and we know KC doesn't rely on its WRs a whole lot. Bruce Arians has proven to be a great coach but Arizona has underwhelmed since Palmer went out and I like KC as the team already in "playoff mode"...
2 Pitt +3.5
Rivalry game in Cincinnati. Two teams familiar with one another. The Bengals have beaten a few poor opponents on their current winning streak. Pitt is trying to take this one to have a chance of making the post season. I expect Pitt to be the hungrier and more focused team. Pitt has trotted out a few underwhelming performance but they have usually played well against good teams.
2 Rams
2 Colts/Browns under 49.5
The Colts have murdered the "over" this season and I think that's why this line is so high. The Browns can play good defense and at home the crowd can really give them a boost. I like Indy's defense in this matchup they have good corners that should keep all the plays in front of them and challenge receivers for the ball. Indy's pass rush has also been impressive at times. I think a ball control offense is the Browns plan for this game so I think the clock will be constantly running.
1 Raiders +7.5
1 Dallas -3(-130)
1 Seattle +1.5
Denver is a great team they are 2nd only to NE in the AFC and even then there isn't a significant gap between the two teams. Everyone had the Chiefs last last week at home. Every service play I came across that included this game was on KC. The Chiefs disappointed but the Broncos offense was excellent, KC offense isn't built to come from behind by multiple touchdowns. This Arizona offense isn't anything close to Denver's I expect KC to be able to keep pace in this one. Arizona boasts the league's 6th best run defense but they aren't dominate, here are how the run defense has done against decent-good rushing teams: 29 carries for 124 yards(Seattle) 25 carries 92 yards(Dallas), 26 carries for 110 yards(Philly), 23 carries for 82 yards (SF), 34 carries 142 yards(last week ATL), 19 carries 98 yards (Det). Arizona can have a dominant run defense against one dimensional offense but not against more complete offenses with competent QB's. The offense's Arizona has had the most success against are, unsurprisingly, one dimensional teams like: Shaun Hill and the Rams twice, rookie Derek Carr and the Raiders, the Giants(no running game), Washington, and SD(poor running game). Arguably the three highest touted defenders for Arizona are Calais Cambell, Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie and we know KC doesn't rely on its WRs a whole lot. Bruce Arians has proven to be a great coach but Arizona has underwhelmed since Palmer went out and I like KC as the team already in "playoff mode"...
2 Pitt +3.5
Rivalry game in Cincinnati. Two teams familiar with one another. The Bengals have beaten a few poor opponents on their current winning streak. Pitt is trying to take this one to have a chance of making the post season. I expect Pitt to be the hungrier and more focused team. Pitt has trotted out a few underwhelming performance but they have usually played well against good teams.
2 Rams
2 Colts/Browns under 49.5
The Colts have murdered the "over" this season and I think that's why this line is so high. The Browns can play good defense and at home the crowd can really give them a boost. I like Indy's defense in this matchup they have good corners that should keep all the plays in front of them and challenge receivers for the ball. Indy's pass rush has also been impressive at times. I think a ball control offense is the Browns plan for this game so I think the clock will be constantly running.
1 Raiders +7.5
1 Dallas -3(-130)
1 Seattle +1.5
2 Pitt +3.5 cont...
This is one I was planning on going more in-depth on but I didn't have a enough time.
Cincy has found a way to run the ball effectively and its about time their offensive line is better at run blocking than dropping back into pass blocking, which is partially why Andy Dalton has been terrible at times, partially. I don't put too much stock into early season games, teams are just getting some cohesiveness and there are early problems that can be entirely mended(see NE Patriots)...After their week 4 bye week the Bengals have been a tough team to figure out. Something I've noticed is their rushing in wins and ties: 193 yards vs Carolina (Tie) 191 yards vs Jacksonville(11 point win), 111 yards vs Baltimore(3 point win), 139 yards vs Texans(9 point win), 186 yards @NO(17 point win), 112 yards @Tampa(1 point win)....In losses Cincy hasn't even been close to winning: Colts- 12 carries for 32 yards, they lost this one 27-0 BUT Indy only scored 3 in the 1st quarter and 7 in the 2nd quarter. Cincy had the opportunity to run it, and against Andrew Luck in Indy you need that, they were just shut down. Against the Browns- Indy ran the ball ok 22 carries for 86 yards but they lost by 21, Andy Dalton was just destroyed in this one. The Pats loss was an outlier- 3 fumbles lost(NONE by the QB) and NE held the ball for 39 minutes, its hard to get a gauge on them for that one their defense was shredded from the get-go. My point is I think Cincy's rushing yards might be a little inflated and Pitts can win this one relatively easily(opinion) if they stop the run. Pitt has the leagues 11th best rush defense, not great but if it is their priority I think Pitt has a good chance at holding the running game in check. That's why I'm taking 2 Pitt +3.5(-120)...and even if this goes in a completely different direction it is a rivalry game and Pitt is the more dangerous team in my opinion based on how the two teams have played.
This is one I was planning on going more in-depth on but I didn't have a enough time.
Cincy has found a way to run the ball effectively and its about time their offensive line is better at run blocking than dropping back into pass blocking, which is partially why Andy Dalton has been terrible at times, partially. I don't put too much stock into early season games, teams are just getting some cohesiveness and there are early problems that can be entirely mended(see NE Patriots)...After their week 4 bye week the Bengals have been a tough team to figure out. Something I've noticed is their rushing in wins and ties: 193 yards vs Carolina (Tie) 191 yards vs Jacksonville(11 point win), 111 yards vs Baltimore(3 point win), 139 yards vs Texans(9 point win), 186 yards @NO(17 point win), 112 yards @Tampa(1 point win)....In losses Cincy hasn't even been close to winning: Colts- 12 carries for 32 yards, they lost this one 27-0 BUT Indy only scored 3 in the 1st quarter and 7 in the 2nd quarter. Cincy had the opportunity to run it, and against Andrew Luck in Indy you need that, they were just shut down. Against the Browns- Indy ran the ball ok 22 carries for 86 yards but they lost by 21, Andy Dalton was just destroyed in this one. The Pats loss was an outlier- 3 fumbles lost(NONE by the QB) and NE held the ball for 39 minutes, its hard to get a gauge on them for that one their defense was shredded from the get-go. My point is I think Cincy's rushing yards might be a little inflated and Pitts can win this one relatively easily(opinion) if they stop the run. Pitt has the leagues 11th best rush defense, not great but if it is their priority I think Pitt has a good chance at holding the running game in check. That's why I'm taking 2 Pitt +3.5(-120)...and even if this goes in a completely different direction it is a rivalry game and Pitt is the more dangerous team in my opinion based on how the two teams have played.
I've taken the last few weeks off. I've been focusing more on the NBA of late. I am + 34.29u on the NBA since I started(November 5th) http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1004128&page=14&p=10926268#post10926268. I like using the units system more than the 1-5 star rating scale because I think it is more straight forward and allows for parlays and wagering on underdogs on the money line that are long shots but offer good value. I'm going to use the unit system with all my sports betting seeing how it is simply mirroring how much I risk on my own wagers...
I have had trouble in the past picking week 16-17 lines. The only wager I've made recently on the NFL was Ravens +3 over Pitt, and I also listed a wager as part of a parlay with NBA games that included Ravens/Pitt o 43.5... This was a fun weekend of football that played out as most expected....The Cards couldn't get the QB they signed a couple of weeks ago to play decently and ultimately that derailed the Card's impressive season. Carolina has been very competitive against the Seahawks the last two seasons (2 games) but both were in Carolina. This should be a defensive game the main worry I have about Carolina's defense is their corners an luckily they will be facing a receiver core devoid of any great wide receivers. I don't have the guts to bet on Cam even if it is Carolina +11, but I do like the under 40.5.... I don't think Pete Carroll wants to take many chances at home against a sub-par passing QB in Cam Newton. Running the football is important for both teams. I plan on making a parlay including the under...
The Ravens travel to NE to play the Patriots. The Ravens defense has played as physical a style of football you will see in this new era of the NFL in their past couple playoff games against NE. The Ravens have taken it to the point that they will give up personal foul yardage to get hard hits on NE players. I don't think it is in an attempt to injure but in an old school 'punish the wide receiver for going over the middle' style of football...they look to intimidate. I've liked this years Pat's team a lot...I'm staying the hell away from this game...
I have had trouble in the past picking week 16-17 lines. The only wager I've made recently on the NFL was Ravens +3 over Pitt, and I also listed a wager as part of a parlay with NBA games that included Ravens/Pitt o 43.5... This was a fun weekend of football that played out as most expected....The Cards couldn't get the QB they signed a couple of weeks ago to play decently and ultimately that derailed the Card's impressive season. Carolina has been very competitive against the Seahawks the last two seasons (2 games) but both were in Carolina. This should be a defensive game the main worry I have about Carolina's defense is their corners an luckily they will be facing a receiver core devoid of any great wide receivers. I don't have the guts to bet on Cam even if it is Carolina +11, but I do like the under 40.5.... I don't think Pete Carroll wants to take many chances at home against a sub-par passing QB in Cam Newton. Running the football is important for both teams. I plan on making a parlay including the under...
The Ravens travel to NE to play the Patriots. The Ravens defense has played as physical a style of football you will see in this new era of the NFL in their past couple playoff games against NE. The Ravens have taken it to the point that they will give up personal foul yardage to get hard hits on NE players. I don't think it is in an attempt to injure but in an old school 'punish the wide receiver for going over the middle' style of football...they look to intimidate. I've liked this years Pat's team a lot...I'm staying the hell away from this game...
Having lost money on games with blown calls I'm annoyed with all the talk by the sports media about the Lion/Cowboys pass interference flag that was picked up changing the complexion of the game. The referees don't get everything right it happens all the time it happens every singe game. I think Howie Long summed it up perfectly, if that initial flag isn't thrown and picked up it is nowhere near as big a deal as it is now(the head linesman saw it as only face guarding). I've seen that same type of play not be called a penalty numerous times in the regular season. I would have called it PI after seeing the contact the defender's left arm makes on the replay but it is in no way an egregious no call. Face guarding is not legal in college but it is legal in the NFL and that's all the Head linesman saw add to that that THERE WAS BARELY ANY CONTACT, refs miss those types of plays every game...
A purely pragmatic observation--- Stafford throws that ball short BEFORE the left arm of the defender touches Pettigrew, before any contact is made he throws it at the defender's back, Pettigrew has a step on the defender and Stafford underthrows him. There were over 8 minutes left in the game after that no call
Maybe this will convince the NFL to finally make penalties challengeable, still, I wish the "Lions were robbed" talk would get dialed back.
A purely pragmatic observation--- Stafford throws that ball short BEFORE the left arm of the defender touches Pettigrew, before any contact is made he throws it at the defender's back, Pettigrew has a step on the defender and Stafford underthrows him. There were over 8 minutes left in the game after that no call
Maybe this will convince the NFL to finally make penalties challengeable, still, I wish the "Lions were robbed" talk would get dialed back.
2u Broncos -7 to win 2u
I've liked the Colts this season their defense can be good and Andrew Luck is one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. The Colts have been able to get a little more out of the RB position since Herron has come along. With limited touches Herron has played well in 6 of the Colts past 7 games. The poor game he had was their 42-7 loss at Dallas and I think a lot of that was due to Andrew Luck not getting the offense humming along and then allowing Herron the opportunities to take advantage. Herron's fumble last week was a great strip by the Bengals they were zeroing in on the strip and tore it out, its not something I expect to see again this weekend but I do wonder if it Chuck Pagano will keep that in the back of his mind when the offense takes the field this weekend. The thing that gives me pause about the Colt's offense is that it was almost completely Andrew Luck that was setting up the run, they came out throwing and had the Bengals worried about Luck's passes down the field, and for good reason he was sharp. The Bengals D has been good this year but I'm banking on the Bronco pass rush being great and causing all sorts of problems for the Colt's offense. The man reason I like Denver is I think they can find a way, one way or the other, of making the Colt's offense one dimensional. Its the playoffs and having seen first hand how dangerous Andrew Luck is I don't think the Bronco's defense comes out with anything shot of their "A" game. The forecast for the game is 41 degrees, its no secret that Peyton has been less effective in cold weather so everyone should take that into account before backing the Broncos...still I like Denver in this one more for their defense and their superior running backs that can have success against the Colts run defense...
I've liked the Colts this season their defense can be good and Andrew Luck is one of the most dangerous QBs in the league. The Colts have been able to get a little more out of the RB position since Herron has come along. With limited touches Herron has played well in 6 of the Colts past 7 games. The poor game he had was their 42-7 loss at Dallas and I think a lot of that was due to Andrew Luck not getting the offense humming along and then allowing Herron the opportunities to take advantage. Herron's fumble last week was a great strip by the Bengals they were zeroing in on the strip and tore it out, its not something I expect to see again this weekend but I do wonder if it Chuck Pagano will keep that in the back of his mind when the offense takes the field this weekend. The thing that gives me pause about the Colt's offense is that it was almost completely Andrew Luck that was setting up the run, they came out throwing and had the Bengals worried about Luck's passes down the field, and for good reason he was sharp. The Bengals D has been good this year but I'm banking on the Bronco pass rush being great and causing all sorts of problems for the Colt's offense. The man reason I like Denver is I think they can find a way, one way or the other, of making the Colt's offense one dimensional. Its the playoffs and having seen first hand how dangerous Andrew Luck is I don't think the Bronco's defense comes out with anything shot of their "A" game. The forecast for the game is 41 degrees, its no secret that Peyton has been less effective in cold weather so everyone should take that into account before backing the Broncos...still I like Denver in this one more for their defense and their superior running backs that can have success against the Colts run defense...
inter-sport parlay .55u Kings +7.5, Panthers/Seahawks u 40.5 and Cowboys o 23.5 to win 3.02u
inter-sport parlay .6u Suns -7.5 and Panthers/Seahawks u 40.5 to win 1.3u
I keep track of my NBA and NBA/NFL bets here http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1004128&page=14&p=10929394#post10929394
inter-sport parlay .6u Suns -7.5 and Panthers/Seahawks u 40.5 to win 1.3u
I keep track of my NBA and NBA/NFL bets here http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1004128&page=14&p=10929394#post10929394
