Randizzle's Week 7 NCAAF **(38-10-2)(80%)(+65 Units)!!!**

[Fergus]

I have a web-enabled phone (3g-Tilt) w/opera browser and data plan. Good investment for me since I can log in to check the forum as well as make picks anywhere, anytime. Just a suggestion. . .

 

[gmoney72]

Randizzle,

Thanks for the winner last night. I appreciate that you don't play a game everynight and wait for something that you really like. Good luck with your next play this week.

 

[Chowder]

I have a web-enabled phone (3g-Tilt) w/opera browser and data plan. Good investment for me since I can log in to check the forum as well as make picks anywhere, anytime. Just a suggestion. . .

dont forget the slingbox on your pda so you can watch your games almost anywhere you go!!

 

[Randizzle14]

what up there randizzle i need to figure this site out and start my genious picks..

What up Kiiiiiiid......just contact me, and i'll get you in the swing of things...Glad you made it on here. Soumi

 

[MistaFlava]

keep up the sick ass work.

 

[Randizzle14]

Thursday Game

Game
------
CLEMSON (3 - 2) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 1)
Week 7 Thursday, 10/9/2008 7:45 PM

Clemson is 5-2 ATS as ACC road underdog. Wake Forest is 12-4-2 against the spread versus Clemson. The Demon Deacons are 13-3 ATS facing Atlantic Division squads, though 7-16-1 ATS as ACC home favorites. Trends aside, I believe the Deacons take the cake in this one. Leading the ACC in passing, and coming off an embarrassing Home loss I believe they come into this game more focused and ready to play. In my opinion Clemson has proven ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to me this season. Walk with me on a trip down memory lane. Clemson opened the season with a neutral site embarrassment to Alabama 34-10.(I will admit, Alabama is a great team this year), but let's continue on this journey. I keep hearing about how they "bounced back" and won their next 3 games. But who did they play?? Let me show you who they played.

ALL HOME GAMES I MAY ADD:
Week 2- Clemson hosts a DI-aa school, The Citadel. They win 45-17. There was no line on this game. Allowed 17 points??

Week 3- Clemson hosts NC State. They get the SU Win 29-7. ATS Loss. Again, NCST is 2-4 this season with only 1 credible win against Ecarolina. Other win was against a DI-aa school, WILMA(who the hell is Wilma??)

Week 4- Clemson hosts another DI-aa school, South Carolina St. They win 54-0. Again, no line on this game.

Week 5- Clemson hosts Maryland (a Sub-par at best team this season) and Lose 17-20. Also a Loss ATS.

If you can find 1 thing on that list that gives them ANY credibilty at all please tell me......................................Don't worry, I'll wait...........

Now they are on the Road for the first time this season against a team that should probably be undefeated coming into this game. Yes they lost to Navy which looks bad, but it was a fluke game. I mean really?? They come off of 3 wins..At Baylor 41-13, host Ole miss 30-28, and At Florida State 12-3. Sure, they didnt pound anyone in the ground, but look at the comparison of opponents. Skinner went into the Navy game having thrown 133 straight passes without an INT against some damn good opponents. He throws 4 INTS last week, and loses a Fumble. That is the definition of a Fluke. VERY unlikely that happens again. In all they had 6 Turnovers, and lost by only 1 TD. In my opinion, this recent breakdown will not hold any consistency. I'm probably rambling here, but I just cannot see Clemson getting anything done on the road when they cant even get it done at home(unless playing a DI-AA team). Additionally, Clemson is 0-3 ATS this season, Wake is 2-2 ATS(not great, but not a goose egg either.)Traditionally, Wake Forest holds the edge ATS against Clemson at 10-6 since 1992.

Situational Factors:
Play Against - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEMSON) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
(76-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%)
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-25).

WAKE FOREST is 11-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 8-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
Bowden is 2-10 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of CLEMSON.

Line Movement:
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</TD><TD id=score width=50>10/9
7:45P


</TD><TD id=team width=135>103 Clemson
104 Wake Forest


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I understand these aren't EXACTLY accurate, but if looked at correctly can be a very profitable tool. Now, while the masses are nealy dead even betting ATS, the majority of players playing ML are on Clemson. Therefore, one can assume that the "Public" is on Clemson. But the line has moved a full point favoring Wake Forest. Lines don't move based on how many people play one way or another, they move based on where the most amount of money wagered is at. In this case, the most money has been wagered on Wake Forest, hence the line movement to -2 to -2.5. (depending on which book you are using). To me personally, that is an indicator that the "heavy hitters" are on Wake in this one. Now this factor does not provide me with a Play, but it does supplement my analysis and work in my favor here.

All of that above is to support the reason:

I Am Taking Wake Forest -2 (-105) at 5Dimes on 10/09/08 2:42a.m. CST.

*Win or lose on this game, I believe this to be the right side. I personally cannot see how ANYONE could wager on Clemson in this situation. But, you know how the old saying goes, "What goes up must come down". But will it?

Good Luck, Dizz :toast:

 

[VoiceofReason101]

I also like Wake in this game even with Swank (no not that dude Hillary Swank) out. I know without a doubt the sharps are on Wake (two locals for starters)

GL

 

[WormyPix]

Terrific. I was really excited about WF, then I heard the rumblings from pundits that Clemson has a great chance to win this gm. Then I doubted myself. Then I came on your thread, and your info just swayed me back to the light. Clemson is highly overrated, and their coach sucks in big gms (except vs his Dad).

Thanks Ran, keep up the stellar work.

 

[bigbookie]

you are a great capper and you may nail this one as well but ask your self one question. Why is Wake forest a ranked team only favored by 2 over a nonranked team that has been less then impressive and on your home turf???

 

[VoiceofReason101]

you are a great capper and you may nail this one as well but ask your self one question. Why is Wake forest a ranked team only favored by 2 over a nonranked team that has been less then impressive and on your home turf???

1 of 3 reasons keeping me away. :drink:


Note: having said that Wake is still my lean

 

[BigPIG19]

you are a great capper and you may nail this one as well but ask your self one question. Why is Wake forest a ranked team only favored by 2 over a nonranked team that has been less then impressive and on your home turf???

public persona

 

[sdf]

public persona

what he said. Clemson is the NAME team. Wake Forest is a basketball school

 

[TheProfitSon]

Randizzle, I noticed you didn't include the amount of units you're laying on tonight's game. There a reason for that, or is it assumed that unless noted, you are playing one unit?

 

[Randizzle14]

Randizzle, I noticed you didn't include the amount of units you're laying on tonight's game. There a reason for that, or is it assumed that unless noted, you are playing one unit?

I wagered 3 units.

 

[RedDustRising]

Neither team has impressed. This game is a coin flip at best.

 

[EXPCAPPER]

Wake Forest is much improved on defense and their offense can put up some points against this "soft" exploited(sp?) Clemson defense. If I had to choose between Clemson defense or Florida State, FSU. If anyone got to watch that game between FSU and WF, IMO that game showed how powerful WF defense can be, this game was also on the road. I'll lean strongly towards WF here, as I believe they can stuff the one demensional team and the duo they depend on. It was very obvious both teams last week were looking ahead, as both team lost. Wake Forest is a top 25 squad and are sleeping under the radar. They could very well easily be a top 15 squad.

WF 24-17

BOL Randizzle!

 

[touc]

I understand these aren't EXACTLY accurate, but if looked at correctly can be a very profitable tool. Now, while the masses are nealy dead even betting ATS, the majority of players playing ML are on Clemson. Therefore, one can assume that the "Public" is on Clemson.

i think the disparity in ml bets in favour of clemson has far more to do with the fact that people generally dislike laying more than -110 on a game. Those who like wake are far more likely to bet them ats. by contrast those who like clemson are more attracted to the larger payout offered by the ml. can't really believe there's too big a public side on a game like this. bol tonight and for this weekend.

 

[313Camper]

Hey Randiz

My line for wake ish - 2.

U think more heavy money comming in for clemsom?

This be there first game on the raod. Won't be easy for cleamson

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Clemson is a strange team and you can analyze them all you want but you never know with this team. To me Clemson will let you down when they look their best (pre-season) and surprise people when they look their worst. Coming off a home loss to Maryland and an underdog against an decent but not good Wake team, my gut tells me Clemson wins by 7-10 pts. GL Dizzle because I more than likely will stay off this one :toast:

 

[CandC98]

My line for wake ish - 2.

U think more heavy money comming in for clemsom?

This be there first game on the raod. Won't be easy for cleamson

I have it on the Greek for Wake -1.5. Of course, that's after I grabbed Wake for -2.5.