Gold and TBT should move up together, the TBT is going up because of inflation and other pressures. These same pressures should be good for gold also. If for some reason the recovery is stalled, the FED would inject capital into the Bond market and drive rates down, but I don't see them doing that for now. The key element in the equation, is oil. If it starts heading toward 100, it will stall recovery, and send everything down gold, oil, interest rates, stocks, etc..