Possible expansion scenario....

[RunLeeRun]

The battle for Virginia and North Carolina
As previously stated, both the SEC and Big Ten are looking hard at both North Carolina and Virginia for expansion for a reason. Not only are they two unique markets for both leagues as neither has a school in either state, but both are two of the more talent-rich areas in the nation. Virginia is eighth nationally with 36 top-200 signees over the last five years and The Tar Heel State is ninth with 32. The two states have combined to produce 13 five-star prospects and both states boast powerful athletic institutions: North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State and Duke are all very attractive options for expansion. This is why John Swofford and the rest of the ACC are grasping tightly to its Grant of Rights agreement because they realize how valuable this real estate could be in the future landscape of college football.


Apart from that, neither conference has a school in that state. Perhaps the networks already have a presence there ( i don't know) but the real money for subscriptions is when the showing is within the conferences footprint...they can charge WAY MORE... so yeah, there is plenty to add by looking at those two states.

 

[GoSooners]

The Pac 12 has a huge number of options that they can exercise. I don't know if they would, but the talk I hear is that they go from 12 to 16 teams if they expand. Again that is a large IF. Right now, it is not in the plans, but the Pac 12 always has something in the fire and can do things at a moments notice.

That's simply not true about the Pac-12. They have no viable options. Either they have to go into a joint venture with the Big 12 or they are stuck at 12 teams. There are no other viable options unless they change their minds and add Boise and BYU. But they've already stated they don't want Boise because they have the academics of a junior college. And BYU, well we already know their story...Right now I suspect the Big 12 is looking more for a traveling companion for West Virginia than they are looking west. The Big 12 geography is spread out too much as it is. Unless the Pac-12 goes back to the table with them and offers them an even sweeter deal they can't refuse (that includes Texas keeping their LHN rights) the Big 12 will most likely expand east if they expand at all.

 

[RunLeeRun]

Right now I suspect the Big 12 is looking more for a traveling companion for West Virginia than they are looking west.

Couldn't agree more, they'd rather get east. It's become glaringly clear that people on the West Coast aren't interested in watching college sports.

Unless the Pac-12 goes back to the table with them and offers them an even sweeter deal they can't refuse (that includes Texas keeping their LHN rights) the Big 12 will most likely expand east if they expand at all.

As they say, follow the money. Adding Texas without the Texas footprint. They wouldn't gain anything. If it included Oklahoma, they get a bump and perhaps incentive for the national DTV 1st Tier TV sets (8 million). Pac 12 gain looks minimal to me, and Oklahoma takes a pay cut.

 

[RunLeeRun]

One possible scenario is if the Big Ten and SEC both go to 16 (all from ACC), it would set up a possible 20 team merger between the B12 and ACC. If the Big Ten wanted to go to 20 and could pull it off, it would still make a manageable conference with some good programs, though I tend to think they'd stay closer to 12 or 14.

Putting my wishful thinking aside (adding FSU), the Big Ten has only added teams with AAU membership. All of the other targeted teams that were linked to serious sources were all AAU. Here is a list of reasonable teams that qualify. Duke, UNC, Ga. Tech, Virginia, Pitt, Kansas. Some of that can be reasonably whittled away. I said before that Virginia wasn't a strong target since they wanted the DC market, and seemed to get it with Maryland. But the more I learn about that area, I think they are still trying to make strong headway there, and may even value a 2nd spot in the region over getting into Atlanta. I'd put the top wants as 1)UNC, 2)UVA, 3) GaTech. There are tons of variables to this scenario.

Missouri is also AAU, but I don't realistically see them leaving the SEC. They are starting to get their footing, though they might reconsider if the SEC powers slide them over to that gauntlet west division if two more eastern teams are added. I'm sure they'd love that.

 

[groundhog11]

That's simply not true about the Pac-12. They have no viable options. Either they have to go into a joint venture with the Big 12 or they are stuck at 12 teams. There are no other viable options unless they change their minds and add Boise and BYU. But they've already stated they don't want Boise because they have the academics of a junior college. And BYU, well we already know their story...Right now I suspect the Big 12 is looking more for a traveling companion for West Virginia than they are looking west. The Big 12 geography is spread out too much as it is. Unless the Pac-12 goes back to the table with them and offers them an even sweeter deal they can't refuse (that includes Texas keeping their LHN rights) the Big 12 will most likely expand east if they expand at all.

Agree....with inviting WVU , the big 12 will now go east...

 

[groundhog11]

One possible scenario is if the Big Ten and SEC both go to 16 (all from ACC), it would set up a possible 20 team merger between the B12 and ACC. If the Big Ten wanted to go to 20 and could pull it off, it would still make a manageable conference with some good programs, though I tend to think they'd stay closer to 12 or 14.

Putting my wishful thinking aside (adding FSU), the Big Ten has only added teams with AAU membership. All of the other targeted teams that were linked to serious sources were all AAU. Here is a list of reasonable teams that qualify. Duke, UNC, Ga. Tech, Virginia, Pitt, Kansas. Some of that can be reasonably whittled away. I said before that Virginia wasn't a strong target since they wanted the DC market, and seemed to get it with Maryland. But the more I learn about that area, I think they are still trying to make strong headway there, and may even value a 2nd spot in the region over getting into Atlanta. I'd put the top wants as 1)UNC, 2)UVA, 3) GaTech. There are tons of variables to this scenario.

Missouri is also AAU, but I don't realistically see them leaving the SEC. They are starting to get their footing, though they might reconsider if the SEC powers slide them over to that gauntlet west division if two more eastern teams are added. I'm sure they'd love that.

i think Missouri would be interesting too...put them in the west division of big...wonder if they would go.

 

[CoachCB]

One possible scenario is if the Big Ten and SEC both go to 16 (all from ACC), it would set up a possible 20 team merger between the B12 and ACC. If the Big Ten wanted to go to 20 and could pull it off, it would still make a manageable conference with some good programs, though I tend to think they'd stay closer to 12 or 14.

Putting my wishful thinking aside (adding FSU), the Big Ten has only added teams with AAU membership. All of the other targeted teams that were linked to serious sources were all AAU. Here is a list of reasonable teams that qualify. Duke, UNC, Ga. Tech, Virginia, Pitt, Kansas. Some of that can be reasonably whittled away. I said before that Virginia wasn't a strong target since they wanted the DC market, and seemed to get it with Maryland. But the more I learn about that area, I think they are still trying to make strong headway there, and may even value a 2nd spot in the region over getting into Atlanta. I'd put the top wants as 1)UNC, 2)UVA, 3) GaTech. There are tons of variables to this scenario.

Missouri is also AAU, but I don't realistically see them leaving the SEC. They are starting to get their footing, though they might reconsider if the SEC powers slide them over to that gauntlet west division if two more eastern teams are added. I'm sure they'd love that.

As far as the DC market goes, it's literally 50-60% Va Tech fans/alumni in this area (at least when it comes to those that show their colors and support for their team).

 

[BigdaddyQH]

The Big 12 is in rather desperate straights. Their alleged star programs, Oklahoma and Texas would rarely, if ever win a SEC title. They would have a major problem winning more than 8 games. Texas and OU are just not good and have not been for several years now. At least OU has won a couple of Big 12 Championships. Texas has been a disaster since 2010. There is very little hope for teams that get out recruited by the likes of Baylor and TCU. The Pac 12 is the only choice for the Texas and Oklahoma teams, and that is rather doubtful. Neither Texas or OU would finish in the Top three of the PAC 12 South, and the Top two in the PAC 12 North. They are that bad.

The Big 12 has one choice and one choice only to make. They must expand. If they do not the PAC 12 can put them out of their misery by simply taking two more teams. San Diego State would bring in more money than 7 teams in the Big 12. There are many others that would make the Pac 12 the 4th Power 5 Conference with 14 teams. The Big 12 would be finished.

 

[RunLeeRun]

San Diego St would lose Pac 12 money. Adds ZERO expansion. On top of that, they dont even average 35k attendance, so I cant imagine cable subscribers demanding the network from their providers. SDSt is more likely to be in the Big 12.

 

[RunLeeRun]

As far as the DC market goes, it's literally 50-60% Va Tech fans/alumni in this area (at least when it comes to those that show their colors and support for their team).

I think they (b10) are under the assumption that any of the southern markets wont be an instant hit. They need to work it whether it the DMV or Atlanta. Its foreign territory, in the case of Atlanta, heavy SEC. Even thru Rutgers capturing the NY market is going to be a long term project. Its a pro market, but there is ground to be made with the right business plan.

 

[CoachCB]

i think Missouri would be interesting too...put them in the west division of big...wonder if they would go.

Missouri is happier than a pig in shit in the SEC. They ain't goin nowhere!

I think they (b10) are under the assumption that any of the southern markets wont be an instant hit. They need to work it whether it the DMV or Atlanta. Its foreign territory, in the case of Atlanta, heavy SEC. Even thru Rutgers capturing the NY market is going to be a long term project. Its a pro market, but there is ground to be made with the right business plan.

True. I don't think the B10 will have much success trying to move south.

 

[RunLeeRun]

Missouri no. They have no need to make a latteral move, though the cultural fit is better north, as would be a path to the playoff. They wanted in the Big Ten forever. Sailed ship.

Depends on how far south we are talking. Some good VA recruits already go to the Big Ten, so by that list we are mostly talking about NC and GA.

 

[Conan]

The Big 12 is in rather desperate straights. Their alleged star programs, Oklahoma and Texas would rarely, if ever win a SEC title. They would have a major problem winning more than 8 games. Texas and OU are just not good and have not been for several years now. At least OU has won a couple of Big 12 Championships. Texas has been a disaster since 2010. There is very little hope for teams that get out recruited by the likes of Baylor and TCU. The Pac 12 is the only choice for the Texas and Oklahoma teams, and that is rather doubtful. Neither Texas or OU would finish in the Top three of the PAC 12 South, and the Top two in the PAC 12 North. They are that bad.

The Big 12 has one choice and one choice only to make. They must expand. If they do not the PAC 12 can put them out of their misery by simply taking two more teams. San Diego State would bring in more money than 7 teams in the Big 12. There are many others that would make the Pac 12 the 4th Power 5 Conference with 14 teams. The Big 12 would be finished.

Much as I hate to say it, Texas and OU would provide a good fit for the Pac. OU isn't so bad but Texas shouldn't be allowed at anyone's Thanksgiving dinner table. It boils down to the ever-more-powerful money "thing." Both schools are appropriately located in a geographical sense. OU is rich in tradition and their fans are a lot like the west coast in terms of the cultural side of things. I also think that people tend to forget about scheduling logistics when a conference is spread out over too many time zones. A 4 - 5 hour plane flight is really pushing things too far for a kid with classes to attend, not to mention the demands put on the road warrior fans who should not have to fly the better part of 1500 miles (and further) to support their old alma matter. Then there's the TV time schedules.

Aside from Texas/TLN who can just go fuck themselves, OU would benefit from a very lucrative conference network that has gained about 500 million in net worth and international deals that involve intercollegiate athletics in the Pacific rim nations that all want in to the American TV market in the worst way. I know I would be very curious to see a ping-pong match between Texas and Fudan University. IMHO there are far worse ways to waste a Saturday morning in July -- just once or possibly twice per year per school. It might even be possible for Oklahoma women's hoops to wind up a moneymaker if they squared off with some big time university in China.

I know for a fact that China is literally swimming in dollars (USD) to the extent that would make you cry. The Chinese people themselves practically worship the American lifestyle. In my everyday business, Chinese people and their everyday lives remind me of us with one big difference -- there are 5 times as many of them as there are Americans. If you are interested in a lock down secure investment for the future, the Pac is uniquely situated to tap into a huge cash cow that will be the envy of every other conference in the US... and from what I have been reading about projections of future TV revenues, if the Pac doesn't jump on the opportunity, they will suffer for it. Both OU and Texas would be fools not to go for it as part of a conference with top drawer leadership.

 

[WinOne]

That's simply not true about the Pac-12. They have no viable options. Either they have to go into a joint venture with the Big 12 or they are stuck at 12 teams. There are no other viable options unless they change their minds and add Boise and BYU. But they've already stated they don't want Boise because they have the academics of a junior college. And BYU, well we already know their story...Right now I suspect the Big 12 is looking more for a traveling companion for West Virginia than they are looking west. The Big 12 geography is spread out too much as it is. Unless the Pac-12 goes back to the table with them and offers them an even sweeter deal they can't refuse (that includes Texas keeping their LHN rights) the Big 12 will most likely expand east if they expand at all.

Very true. Other than picking off a couple of the Big12 schools OU/OSU or Tech (unless they soften their stance on the religious schools) the PAC12 is locked because I dont consider Albequerque or Las Vegas options. BUT, what the PAC 12 has it is Pacific Rim (From China to the Japan) from a media rights stand point. They are marketing their product in APAC and that's going to drive their revenue. There are a ton of ExPAts in the Pacific Rim and a ton of alums from those countries. It's untapped television potential. I believe both Stanford and UCLA will be playing CBB games in China next season. That's just an entry point.

But I still think they go east and grab a couple of teams from the Big12. There is new leadership in Austin now, and he's worked with and inside the PAC12. Who's to say they don't try a coup again if the expansion winds begin to blow once more

 

[WinOne]

San Diego St would lose Pac 12 money. Adds ZERO expansion. On top of that, they dont even average 35k attendance, so I cant imagine cable subscribers demanding the network from their providers. SDSt is more likely to be in the Big 12.

Completely agree. The only time SDSU draws is when UCLA plays them or BYU comes to town. USC/UCLA already cover that footprint.

 

[WinOne]

Much as I hate to say it, Texas and OU would provide a good fit for the Pac. OU isn't so bad but Texas shouldn't be allowed at anyone's Thanksgiving dinner table. It boils down to the ever-more-powerful money "thing." Both schools are appropriately located in a geographical sense. OU is rich in tradition and their fans are a lot like the west coast in terms of the cultural side of things. I also think that people tend to forget about scheduling logistics when a conference is spread out over too many time zones. A 4 - 5 hour plane flight is really pushing things too far for a kid with classes to attend, not to mention the demands put on the road warrior fans who should not have to fly the better part of 1500 miles (and further) to support their old alma matter. Then there's the TV time schedules.

Aside from Texas/TLN who can just go fuck themselves, OU would benefit from a very lucrative conference network that has gained about 500 million in net worth and international deals that involve intercollegiate athletics in the Pacific rim nations that all want in to the American TV market in the worst way. I know I would be very curious to see a ping-pong match between Texas and Fudan University. IMHO there are far worse ways to waste a Saturday morning in July -- just once or possibly twice per year per school. It might even be possible for Oklahoma women's hoops to wind up a moneymaker if they squared off with some big time university in China.

I know for a fact that China is literally swimming in dollars (USD) to the extent that would make you cry. The Chinese people themselves practically worship the American lifestyle. In my everyday business, Chinese people and their everyday lives remind me of us with one big difference -- there are 5 times as many of them as there are Americans. If you are interested in a lock down secure investment for the future, the Pac is uniquely situated to tap into a huge cash cow that will be the envy of every other conference in the US... and from what I have been reading about projections of future TV revenues, if the Pac doesn't jump on the opportunity, they will suffer for it. Both OU and Texas would be fools not to go for it as part of a conference with top drawer leadership.

Just stated, it's all about the Pacific Rim and all those potential television subscriptions. Cha-Ching!! And thats not speaking Mandarin

 

[WinOne]

Just hold your nose and take Texas, and then Kansas, OU and OSU and be done with it. Shore up football, basketball, and a variety of other sports. You also get Austin/San Antonio media markets as well as OKC and Kansas City/StL. Steve Patterson is the AD in Austin now (formerly of ASU) i wonder if they'd do things differently now

 

[RunLeeRun]

Very true. Other than picking off a couple of the Big12 schools OU/OSU or Tech (unless they soften their stance on the religious schools) the PAC12 is locked because I dont consider Albequerque or Las Vegas options. BUT, what the PAC 12 has it is Pacific Rim (From China to the Japan) from a media rights stand point. They are marketing their product in APAC and that's going to drive their revenue. There are a ton of ExPAts in the Pacific Rim and a ton of alums from those countries. It's untapped television potential. I believe both Stanford and UCLA will be playing CBB games in China next season. That's just an entry point.

But I still think they go east and grab a couple of teams from the Big12. There is new leadership in Austin now, and he's worked with and inside the PAC12. Who's to say they don't try a coup again if the expansion winds begin to blow once more

There is a market for basketball in China. It seems like a long-term solution and we can't forget that 10 million people watching in China, and Japan to a lesser extent, as compared to 10 million watching State-side isn't the same value. One only need look at the World Cup. Total viewers per country is weighted with GDP to show what percentage they actually provide to the coffers. In 2010 South Africa, China represented 14.8% of total viewers, but when you apply the GDP, it came to 7.3%. Japan is a rosier prospect. It's 4.9% actual viewers, resulted in 9.1% of GDP-viewers. Japan is a wealthy country and was actually 2nd behind only the USA for total value after weighing in the GDP. Baseball would obviously being the selling point in Japan... and South Korea. So there is some potential. But at the end of the day, it seems expansion in the US would be more profitable.

IN 2010, SHARE OF …
	COUNTRY	BODY	GLOBAL POPULATION	WORLD CUP TV AUDIENCE	GDP-WEIGHTED AUDIENCE
1	U.S.	CONCACAF	4.5%	4.3%	11.3%
2	Japan	AFC	1.9	4.9	9.1
3	China	AFC	19.5	14.8	7.3
4	Germany	UEFA	1.2	2.9	6.3
5	Brazil	CONMEBOL	2.8	7.1	5.4
6	U.K.	UEFA	0.9	2.1	4.2
7	Italy	UEFA	0.9	2.1	4.0
8	France	UEFA	0.9	2.0	4.0
9	Russia	UEFA	2.1	3.1	3.5
10	Spain	UEFA	0.7	1.8	3.1
11	South Korea	AFC	0.7	1.8	3.0
12	Indonesia	AFC	3.5	6.7	2.9
13	Mexico	CONCACAF	1.7	3.2	2.6
14	Turkey	UEFA	1.1	2.3	2.0
15	Thailand	AFC	1.0	2.4	1.6
16	Argentina	CONMEBOL	0.6	1.5	1.6
17	Netherlands	UEFA	0.2	0.6	1.5
18	Poland	UEFA	0.6	1.2	1.3
19	Saudi Arabia	AFC	0.4	0.5	1.2
20	Taiwan	AFC	0.3	0.5	1.0
21	Canada	CONCACAF	0.5	0.5	1.0
22	Colombia	CONMEBOL	0.7	1.6	0.9
23	Venezuela	CONMEBOL	0.4	1.0	0.9
24	South Africa	CAF	0.7	1.3	0.8
25	Malaysia	AFC	0.4	0.7	0.7
26	Switzerland	UEFA	0.1	0.3	0.7
27	Nigeria	CAF	2.3	2.6	0.7
28	Belgium	UEFA	0.2	0.3	0.7
29	Sweden	UEFA	0.1	0.3	0.7
30	Vietnam	AFC	1.3	2.6	0.6
31	Iran	AFC	1.1	0.7	0.6
32	Chile	CONMEBOL	0.3	0.6	0.6
33	Romania	UEFA	0.3	0.7	0.6
34	Austria	UEFA	0.1	0.3	0.6
35	Singapore	AFC	0.1	0.2	0.6
36	Australia	AFC	0.3	0.3	0.5
37	Greece	UEFA	0.2	0.3	0.5
38	Portugal	UEFA	0.2	0.4	0.5

 

[RunLeeRun]

Just hold your nose and take Texas, and then Kansas, OU and OSU and be done with it. Shore up football, basketball, and a variety of other sports. You also get Austin/San Antonio media markets as well as OKC and Kansas City/StL. Steve Patterson is the AD in Austin now (formerly of ASU) i wonder if they'd do things differently now

With the LHN would they actually get those subscribers, though?

 

[GoSooners]

I read an article recently that PAC12 revenues were up again year over year and after next year, they will have paid off their startup costs for starting up the new network, etc. Only thing missing is the DirecTv deal which ATT has said will happen once the ATT/DirecTv acquisition is completed (on hold pending court and FCC review). If that scenario comes up again, I think things would be different. I think with new leadership in Austin, it would go down differently. But the PAC12 is doing just fine right now without the Big12 teams.
I don't see the above scenario happening as many of those team granted their rights to the ACC. So theyd have to buy their way out. FSU would never get in the SEC because UF won't vote for it. Now Va Tech and NCST I could see that happening. UNC and Duke are like Texas and OU, they seem tied to one another so I doubt UNC would leave. And will all the scandal going on in Chapel hill, they are not as desirable right now

I'm pretty sure that if we ever have a serious realignment move with the ACC/Big 12 that the Grant of Rights won't matter. From what i understand, if the majority of the schools desire to leave or break up a conference as it is, the Grant of Rights is null and void. In the ACC/Big 12 case it would be a merge, so I'm not sure the Grant of Rights even comes into play. If 6 out of 10 Big 12 teams voted to go to the Big 12, the GOR shouldn't be an issue for the Big 12. I would prefer OU and Texas go to the Pac-12. We've got a few major programs on a down cycle right now like OU, Texas and USC, but can imagine how successful of a conference it can be when those teams come back? It will be great for college football. Maybe even the Chinese will watch. :toast: