Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

[Michelangelo]

NFL

Struggled down the stretch but held on to post a small profit for the regular season. That was my goal as stated in my Week 1 post. Got there.

Let's try to make the Playoffs profitable too.

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Regular season 79-73-1 +341

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Playoff Wildcard Round:

Kansas City -3 -105 (@ Hou)
So I studied the schedules of these two teams. Kansas City's road opponents had a cumulative record of 70-58. Those are good teams. The Chiefs had 5-3 record when visiting those teams. Houston's home opposition had a cumulative record of 62-66. Houston had a 5-3 record home vs those losing teams. Looks to me like Kansas City is the much better team by defining them in this way.

Cincinnatti +2' -105 (vs Pit)
So McCarron it is. He has now played three and a three quarters games at the helm since Howdy Doody busted his finger. The game he came into cold off the bench just happened to be the game Cincy lost to Pittsburgh in Cincy. In that game McCarron, coming in off the bench for an injured Dalton, threw 2 picks including a pick six, as well as 2 TDs. In the three games since he has thrown for 4 TDs and 0 picks. I think that he was cold and unprepared for that off the bench role. Oh yea, Big Ben and his vaunted passing game threw for zero TDs and a pick against the Bengal D in that game. Expecting McCarron to keep it together today and for the Cincy D to lead the Bengals to Marvin Lewis' (0-6 Playoffs) first Playoff win.

 

[vitterd]

NFL Playoffs

Houston +3
Wash +1
Cinn +3
pitt/cinn over 46
gb/wash over 45

NCAAB

Wisc+3.5
Syracuse+7

 

[ScottL]

I figure after changing my mind 3 times in the NFL games the best thing to do would be to let everyone else lose their money. I give up. Went 3-1 in Hoops yesterday and now 126-117. The only loser was NOR who lost their best player Anthony Davis for the game in the 1Q but still led most of the way. The POS Jrue Holiday stank it up in the 4Q and no one on NOR stepped up late.

Afternoon Hoops: 532 Air Force -1.5 / 535 Utep +10.5 / 562 So Car -2.5 / 564 Wash ST -1.5 / 599 FSU +9.5

 

[Michelangelo]

Add NFL:

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Already lost 2 key points of linevalue with Washington so I'm gonna get these in right now for Sunday:

Add:

Seattle -4 -110 (@ Minny)
Washington -1 -107 (vs GBy)

Will writeup tomorrow.

 

[vitterd]

NCAAB

Wisc+3.5
Syracuse+7

Add:

Toledo -3

 

[ScottL]

SAT NIGHT = 505 WAS +3.5 / 625 FIU +10.5 / 667 UC-River +13

 

[Michelangelo]

NBA

yest 1-2 -125
YTD 88-81 +306

Saturday:

Wash +3' -108 (@ Orl)
Det -11 +100 (vs Brk)
Philly +9' -110 (vs Tor)

 

[Michelangelo]

Yest 2-0 +200

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Wildcard Day 2, Sunday:

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Seattle -4 -110 (@ Minny)

Just in case you were wondering, Wild Card Home Dogs (Minny) are 5-7-1 over the past 10 years. Nothing there.

So Minnesota is a team that after Week 1 covered all their games ATS except two. Both of those games happened to be at home, and both were against two other Wildcard teams in the back half of their season. They lost to Green Bay, 13-30, as -1 favs on Thanksgiving week. And they lost to these Shehawks, 7-38, as 2' point home dogs in Week 13. The only points they scored in that game was on a kickoff return runback when they were already down 0-35. Usually I try to see how a team can revenge such an embarrassment. But I just don't see it here.

The only way I see Minny getting a win here is the weather. I'm expecting funny things to happen here. Bones feel real brittle when it's as cold as it will be today in Minnesota. Tackling gets sloppy 'cause guys don't like the feeling of those bones when they hit hard. The ball is also rock hard and catches like trying to catch a speeding rock. And gets slippery in people's hands. When will it be dropped or deflected or fumbled or intercepted for those reasons? No clue.

So we need to go back to basics. Seattle has the better scoring Defense #1 vs Minny's #5. Seattle runs the ball better by a small margin - 2268 yds vs 2211 yds. Throwing? Forget it. In the last half of the season Russell Wilson has 25 TDs to 2 picks. I'll say that again. In the last half of the season Russell Wilson has 25 TDs to 2 interceptions. Those are slam dunk MVP numbers. Teddy Bridgewater's last half stats are 8 TDs to 4 picks. No, I didn't maker any errors.

And lastly, Minny's kicker, Blair Walsh, went to HS in Florida, and kicked at Georgia. Seattle's kicker, Steve Haushka, started kicking the football at Middlebury College in Vermont. I'm guessing that he knows how to kick a rock cold football. The Florida guy in Minnesota, not so much.

Like Kansas City yesterday, Seattle is the much better team here. Can't predict who the weather will help so I'll call that unfactorable. That still leaves Seattle as the much better team.

 

[JudgeWapner]

20-24-2

Vikes +4'.

 

[ScottL]

Hoops 129-122 (3-5 yesterday) / FB 100-114

SUNDAY: GBAY +1 / BOS -2.5 / OVER 191 lak-utah / Nc St +3

David Bakhtiari a big key to GB today. He is still questionable with an ankle injury. Very important he plays as no one better at protecting A. Rodgers blindside.

BOS was getting points this morning. As they are now at -2.5 I debated removing them from my card as this price is just off. However I really like them today so hopefully I don't end up with the Spalding up my ass due to this crazy line move.

 

[Michelangelo]

Seattle rode their frozen brains to a 10-9 win, leaving all their backers with a loss. That includes me.

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Washington -1 -107 (vs GBy)

19-2
12-5

Those are second half TD to interception records for the two QBs in this game.

Which is Rogers and which is Cousins?

GL

 

[ScottL]

I had OVER 18 1,100/1,000 and UNDER 19.5 800/800 for the 2Half. The FG lands it on 19. I don't know how I knew, but I KNEW the MFer was going to miss it. Ah, what the heck do I need with another 2,100 bucks anyway ##)

 

[Michelangelo]

Tough to bet Overs into these Playoff games, Scott. Nobody's scoring. Nobody.

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NBA

yest 2-1 +90
YTD 90-82 +396

Sunday:

Philly +16 -110 (vs Cle)
Memphis +3 -110 (vs Bos)
LA L +3 -103 (vs Ut)

 

[vitterd]

NBA

Port+7.5
Milw+5.5

 

[Michelangelo]

NBA

Add:

Portland +7' +100 (vs Ok C)

 

[ScottL]

Sarah Bergstrom ‏@sarahbergstromm

At this @Lakers game and it's almost as if neither team wants to score...

6:57 PM - 10 Jan 2016



Like I said Totals are wired up in the 1Q. I have to deal with this BS after seeing the CelShits blow a 21 point lead. And a missed chip shot that tossed 2100 out the car window. Typical day.

 

[ScottL]

They're smiling after a 15-14 1Q

 

[vitterd]

Baseball 98-85 (+13,475)

NBA 30-36 (-9300)

NFL 52-59 (-13,400)

NCAAF 76-79 (-10,900)3

NCAAB 6-3 (+2700)

overall 262-262 (-17,425)

Baseball 98-85(+13,475)

NBA 35-42(-10,900)

NCAAF 76-79(-10,900)

NFL 54-62(-14,700)

NCAAB 9-6(+2400)

 

[ScottL]

Tough to bet Overs into these Playoff games, Scott. Nobody's scoring. Nobody.

Well I didn't bet OVER. I put extra on the OVER side of a Middle bkz the guy with 18 opinionated his Line.

 

[ScottL]

0-2-1 in Hoops yesterday = 129-124

SAN -14.5 and WAS +8.5

FB (101)-114 after Pack Cover. Not betting against SEC's 7-0 ATS mark in Title Game. And not betting against a team who has lost only 20 of its last 151 games by more than 6 points. However Mich St was 72-7 within 4 points of its last 79 opponents and The Tide didn't seem bothered by that. Slightest of leans to Bama whose 'D' is more likely to take control after intermission.